China Official PMI October 2026
October 30 @ 9:30 pm - 10:30 pm
China Official PMI October 2026
Next China Official PMI: Saturday, at 9:30 am CST (9:30 pm ET, 1:30 am London).
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- Manufacturing 49.8, Non-Manufacturin…
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
Updated
China’s Official PMI for October 2026 is due on Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 9:30 am China Standard Time (CST), which is 9:30 pm ET on October 30 in the United States and 1:30 am on October 31 in London. The survey is published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), together with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, and covers economic activity during October 2026. Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
What is the China Official PMI?
The Official Purchasing Managers’ Index is a monthly survey of purchasing managers at several hundred manufacturing and services firms across China, most of them large and state-linked. Managers are asked whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and stock levels rose, fell or stayed unchanged compared with the previous month. The answers are combined into two headline figures: the Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Manufacturing (services and construction) PMI.
A reading above 50 signals expansion in that part of the economy, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The distance from 50, not just the direction, matters: a move from 49.0 to 49.8 still shows contraction but a slowing pace of decline, which markets often read as a stabilising signal.
Investors, currency traders and commodity markets watch this release closely because China is the world’s largest manufacturing economy and a major buyer of raw materials, machinery and energy. Because the official survey leans towards larger, state-owned firms, it is often read alongside the privately compiled Caixin PMI, which samples smaller, export-oriented businesses, to get a fuller picture of the Chinese economy.
When is the October Official PMI released?
The NBS is scheduled to publish the October 2026 Official PMI on Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 9:30 am CST (9:30 pm ET, 1:30 am London). The data is released directly on the National Bureau of Statistics website, with both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices published at the same time. NBS releases fall on a fixed monthly schedule regardless of weekends, so a Saturday publication date, as in this case, is normal for this series.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of this writing, a consensus forecast for the October 2026 Official Manufacturing PMI has not yet been published by major polling providers such as Reuters or Trading Economics. Forecasts for this release typically firm up in the final days of October, closer to the publication date.
The most recent confirmed reading available is from August 2026, when the official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, still below the 50 expansion line but up 0.6 points from July, according to a report on the August data. The non-manufacturing index stood at 49.0 in the same month, its weakest level since December 2022, per Reuters.
| Measure | Prior (August 2026) | Consensus (October 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | Not yet published |
| Non-Manufacturing PMI | 49.0 | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Read as a sign that factory activity is stabilising or recovering, potentially supporting the yuan and commodity-linked currencies | Chinese factories reported more new orders and output than expected, suggesting demand is picking up |
| In line | Limited market reaction, seen as confirmation of the existing gradual recovery trend described by analysts covering the August data | The economy is behaving broadly as expected, neither better nor worse |
| Below consensus | Could revive concerns about weak domestic demand and prompt talk of further stimulus, a pattern noted after earlier soft prints | Factories and services firms are struggling more than expected, which can weigh on global trade partners |
Why does this release matter right now?
China’s factory sector has moved in and out of contraction for much of 2026. The Official Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in February 2026 before rebounding to 50.4 in March, its strongest reading in a year, helped by government spending and export demand linked to artificial intelligence hardware, according to Trading Economics data. By August 2026 the index had settled at 49.8, still in contraction but improving, while the non-manufacturing gauge languished at 49.0, its weakest since December 2022.
Policymakers in Beijing have leaned on fiscal spending and targeted support measures through 2026 as they try to lift domestic consumption and stabilise the property sector. Each PMI print feeds into that debate: a weak reading tends to increase pressure for more stimulus, while a stronger one can ease it. Analysts covering the August release noted that the test ahead is whether stronger factory demand spreads into jobs, consumption and private-sector confidence, according to a report on China’s recovery prospects.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and rates: China’s PMI does not set UK, US or European mortgage rates directly, but persistent weakness in Chinese demand can pull down global growth expectations, which sometimes feeds into lower bond yields and, indirectly, mortgage pricing in Western markets.
Savings: A weaker Chinese economy can add to disinflationary pressure globally by lowering commodity and shipping costs, which central banks weigh when setting the interest rates that determine savings account returns.
Jobs and wages: Companies in Europe, the UK and Asia that export machinery, luxury goods or raw materials to China are sensitive to these figures. A soft PMI print can eventually show up in hiring and order books at those firms.
Prices: China is a major producer of manufactured goods and consumer of raw materials, so shifts in its factory activity can affect the price of everything from electronics to industrial metals worldwide.
Investments, pensions and currencies: Chinese equities, the offshore yuan, and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar often react to this release. Pension funds with exposure to Asian or emerging-market equities, or to mining and energy companies, can see performance move on the day.
Related events
- Previous release: China Official PMI, September 2026
- The privately compiled Caixin Manufacturing PMI, published separately and weighted towards smaller, export-oriented firms
- Full monthly schedule and background on the series: China Official PMI
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the October 2026 China Official PMI released?
It is scheduled for 9:30 am China Standard Time on October 31, 2026, which is 9:30 pm ET on October 30 and 1:30 am in London on October 31.
How do I read the PMI figure?
A reading above 50 signals expansion in that sector of the economy, while a reading below 50 signals contraction; the closer to 50, the closer the sector is to stabilising.
Does the China PMI affect interest rates outside China?
Not directly, but weak or strong Chinese activity can shift global growth and inflation expectations, which central banks in the US, UK and eurozone factor into their own rate decisions.
Where is the official release published?
Directly on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
When is the next China Official PMI released?
The NBS publishes this series on a fixed monthly schedule; the next release after October 2026 covers November 2026 data.