China Official PMI: 2026 Schedule, Dates and What to Expect

The China Official PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) together with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. It is the first hard reading each month on how the world’s second-largest economy is performing, covering factories, services and construction. The next release is on Monday, August 31, 2026 at 9:30 am Beijing time (CST), which is 2:30 am in London and 9:30 pm ET on the evening of August 30 for readers in New York. The survey is released on the last day of the month it covers, so China reports before almost every other major economy. You can add every date on this page to your own diary using the ICS and Google Calendar feed on this page, which updates automatically when the NBS confirms its schedule.

Three numbers are published at the same time: the manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing business activity index (services plus construction) and the composite PMI output index, which blends the two. A reading above 50 means activity grew compared with the previous month; below 50 means it shrank. Because China is the biggest single buyer of industrial commodities and a central link in global supply chains, these figures move iron ore, copper, oil, the Australian dollar, mining shares in London and consumer names in Europe long before Asian trading closes.

2026 and 2027 schedule

The table below lists every scheduled release currently in the calendar. Each one lands at 9:30 am Beijing time on the final day of the reference month, including weekends, which is unusual among statistical agencies. When the last day falls on a Sunday, the NBS still publishes.

All times are 9:30 am Beijing time (CST, UTC+8). Beijing does not observe daylight saving, so the local time never changes, but the London and New York equivalents shift by an hour when European and US clocks change in late March and late October.

What is the China Official PMI?

PMI stands for purchasing managers’ index. It is a diffusion index built from a questionnaire sent to the people inside companies who buy raw materials, components and services. They are asked whether output, new orders, employment, prices, inventories and supplier delivery times were higher, the same or lower than the month before. Their answers are converted into an index where 50 is the dividing line: above 50 means more firms reported improvement than deterioration, below 50 means the opposite. The distance from 50 indicates how broad the change was, not how large it was in percentage terms.

The NBS survey is often called the “official” PMI to distinguish it from the private-sector survey now published under the RatingDog brand (previously badged Caixin and, before that, HSBC). The two can point in different directions in the same month because their samples differ. The official manufacturing survey covers roughly 3,200 companies and is weighted towards large, often state-owned industrial firms, while the private survey leans towards smaller, more export-oriented and privately owned manufacturers in the coastal provinces. Reading the pair together gives a fuller picture than either on its own.

Three headline numbers matter. The manufacturing PMI tracks factories. The non-manufacturing business activity index covers services and construction, which together make up more than half of Chinese output and are where the property downturn shows up most clearly. The composite PMI output index combines the manufacturing output sub-index and the non-manufacturing activity index into a single measure of whole-economy momentum.

Investors care because the survey is timely and unrevised. Chinese GDP arrives quarterly and industrial production monthly with a lag, whereas the PMI lands on the final day of the reference month. For anyone trading commodities, shipping, luxury goods, semiconductors or the Australian and New Zealand dollars, it is the earliest read on Chinese demand available anywhere.

How is it calculated?

The NBS Service Industry Survey Centre uses probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling, splitting the universe of companies into manufacturing and non-manufacturing strata and then selecting firms with a probability related to their size, so larger employers are more likely to be included. Questionnaires are collected in the second half of the month, which is why the survey can miss events that occur in the final days of a month.

The manufacturing headline is a weighted composite of five sub-indices: new orders (30%), production (25%), employment (20%), supplier delivery times (15%, inverted) and stocks of purchased items (10%). Each sub-index is calculated as the share of respondents reporting an increase plus half the share reporting no change. The non-manufacturing headline is the business activity index itself rather than a weighted composite, which is one reason it is described as an activity index rather than a PMI.

The data are seasonally adjusted, and the NBS publishes breakdowns by enterprise size (large, medium and small) alongside sub-indices for new export orders, imports, input prices, output prices, finished goods inventories and business expectations. Those details often matter more than the headline: a manufacturing print of 49.5 driven by collapsing export orders tells a very different story from the same number caused by a fall in inventories.

Two seasonal quirks recur every year. The Lunar New Year holiday shifts between late January and February, distorting the readings for both months, and the NBS routinely advises comparing the two months together. Extreme summer heat, flooding and, in some years, energy or emissions curbs also depress the construction and production sub-indices. Unlike US data, PMI readings are not revised after publication, so the first print is the final one.

What time is it released and where?

Release time is 9:30 am Beijing time (CST, UTC+8) on the last calendar day of the reference month. That is:

• 9:30 am in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore
• 2:30 am in London during British Summer Time (1:30 am in winter)
• 9:30 pm ET the previous evening in New York during daylight saving time (8:30 pm in winter)
• 11:30 am in Sydney during Australian Eastern Standard Time

The figures appear on the NBS website in Chinese first, with the English press release following, usually within a few days. The NBS also publishes a written interpretation from a chief statistician at the Service Industry Survey Centre alongside the numbers, explaining which industries drove the change. The National Bureau of Statistics of China is the official source and its release calendar is announced in advance, typically in December for the following year.

Because the data land mid-session in Asia and overnight for Europe and the Americas, the first reaction is visible in the offshore yuan (CNH), Australian dollar, iron ore and copper futures, Hong Kong and mainland equities, and later in European mining and luxury shares at the London and Frankfurt opens. US index futures often move too, particularly for companies with heavy China exposure such as semiconductor and industrial machinery makers.

Historical data

The table shows the official readings published in 2026. The 50 line separates expansion from contraction.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China monthly PMI press releases, with month-on-month changes as reported by the NBS and summarised by FocusEconomics and Trading Economics. The composite PMI output index stood at 49.3 in July 2026, down 1.3 points from June, according to the NBS.

The pattern through 2026 has been a narrow one. Manufacturing spent the first two months of the year in contraction, moved above 50 from March to June, helped by resilient high-tech and AI-related export demand according to the NBS commentary, then fell back to 49.2 in July as output, new orders and export orders all turned negative. Services and construction have been similarly borderline, with the non-manufacturing index dipping below 50 in April and again in July. In practice the survey has been describing an economy growing without momentum, where policy support rather than private demand does much of the work.

How do markets react?

The typical reaction is fast but modest, because the survey is a diffusion index rather than a hard output number, and because analysts follow the sub-indices closely. A surprise of 0.5 points or more against expectations is usually enough to move commodity and currency markets.

A stronger-than-expected reading tends to lift the offshore yuan, the Australian and New Zealand dollars, industrial metals, iron ore, oil and Chinese equities, and it supports European mining and luxury shares. A weak reading does the opposite, though it can paradoxically boost Chinese stocks if traders conclude that Beijing will respond with fresh stimulus: rate cuts or reserve requirement cuts from the People’s Bank of China, local government bond issuance, or support for the property sector. That “bad news is good news” reflex is a recurring feature of Chinese data days and one reason the equity reaction is less predictable than the currency and commodity reaction.

Specific components carry outsized weight. New export orders are watched as a proxy for global trade and for the effect of tariffs. Employment is watched for signs of stress in the labour market. Input and output prices feed into expectations for producer price inflation, which in turn affects the price of goods China exports to the rest of the world, a channel that matters for inflation in the UK, the euro area and the US. Construction activity within the non-manufacturing survey is the cleanest monthly signal on the property cycle.

Context also determines the size of the reaction. The July 2026 release was reported as the first factory contraction since February, which put more weight on it than an in-line print would have carried. Releases that fall close to major policy meetings, such as the Politburo’s quarterly economic sessions or the Central Economic Work Conference in December, tend to be read primarily for what they imply about the policy response.

What It Means for Your Money

China’s PMI rarely changes anyone’s mortgage payment on its own, but it works through channels that touch household finances everywhere.

• Prices in the shops. China is the world’s largest exporter of manufactured goods. When Chinese factories are running below capacity, export prices soften and that eventually shows up as cheaper goods on UK, European and US shelves, taking pressure off inflation. A sustained Chinese slowdown is mildly disinflationary for the rest of the world.
• Interest rates and mortgages. Weaker Chinese demand pulls down oil, gas and metals prices, which lowers headline inflation elsewhere. That gives the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates, which feeds into mortgage pricing and savings rates over months rather than days. Basis points, or bp, are hundredths of a percentage point: a 25bp cut is 0.25%.
• Pensions and investments. Anyone holding a global tracker fund owns mining companies, semiconductor makers, carmakers and luxury groups whose earnings depend on Chinese demand. A run of sub-50 readings tends to weigh on those sectors, and on emerging market funds where Chinese equities are the largest weight.
• Jobs. In commodity exporters such as Australia, Brazil, Chile and Indonesia, and in the German industrial supply chain, Chinese demand is closely tied to employment and tax revenue. A soft PMI trend eventually shows up in hiring and investment decisions there.
• Currencies and travel money. The Australian dollar is the most reliable proxy for Chinese growth expectations among major currencies. Sterling and the euro often edge up against the Australian dollar and commodity currencies on a weak Chinese print, which changes the cost of holidays and imported goods at the margin.

The practical takeaway for a long-term investor: one month’s PMI is noise. What matters is whether the index sits above or below 50 for three or four months in a row, because that is what tends to shift commodity prices, corporate earnings guidance and central bank thinking.

Related economic events

• US CPI Report: the monthly US inflation reading, where cheaper Chinese goods show up in core goods prices.
• US Jobs Report: the monthly payrolls release and the biggest single driver of global rate expectations.
• US GDP Report: quarterly output for the world’s largest economy, the other half of the global demand picture.
• US PCE Report: the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, watched alongside global goods prices.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the next China Official PMI released?

The next release covers August 2026 and is published on Monday, August 31, 2026 at 9:30 am Beijing time, which is 2:30 am in London and 9:30 pm ET on August 30.

What time is the China PMI published?

Always 9:30 am Beijing time (UTC+8) on the last calendar day of the month being surveyed, including Saturdays and Sundays. Beijing does not use daylight saving, so only the London and New York equivalents change through the year.

How often is it released?

Monthly, twelve times a year, with the manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index all published together.

Where can I find the official release?

On the National Bureau of Statistics of China website at stats.gov.cn, in Chinese first and then in English, alongside a statistician’s written interpretation and the full sub-index tables. Figures are not revised after publication.

Does the China PMI affect interest rates?

Not directly in the UK, the euro area or the US, but it shapes them indirectly. Sustained weakness in Chinese activity lowers commodity prices and export prices, which cools global inflation and gives central banks more scope to cut. Inside China it feeds expectations for People’s Bank of China policy, including loan prime rate and reserve requirement decisions.

Was a consensus forecast published for the August 2026 reading?

A consensus forecast for the August 2026 release has not yet been published. Reuters and Bloomberg typically survey economists in the week before the release, and the July 2026 manufacturing reading of 49.2 came in below the 50.0 that analysts had expected.