When Is the Next GDP Report? 2026 Release Dates

The US Gross Domestic Product report is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a unit of the US Department of Commerce. It is the broadest single measure of American economic activity, and each quarter’s figure arrives in 3 instalments: an advance estimate roughly a month after the quarter ends, followed by second and third estimates at monthly intervals as more complete source data come in. Because the United States is the world’s largest economy, these releases move markets from New York to London to Tokyo. This page tracks every 2026 release date, the latest results, and what the numbers mean.

GDP Release Schedule 2026

The BEA publishes its GDP release calendar at bea.gov/news/schedule. All releases land at 8:30am Eastern Time. Note that the first 3 releases of 2026, covering Q4 2025, were rescheduled because the October to November 2025 federal government shutdown delayed the source data: the advance estimate originally planned for January 29 moved to February 20.

The advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP is due in late January 2027. The BEA has not yet published its full 2027 release calendar; this page will be updated with confirmed 2027 dates as soon as they appear on the official schedule.

What Time Is GDP Released?

Every GDP report is released at 8:30am Eastern Time, exactly 1 hour before the New York stock market opens. For readers outside the United States, 8:30am ET is 1:30pm in London, 2:30pm in Frankfurt and Paris, and 9:30pm in Tokyo for most of the year. The 8:30am ET slot is shared with other major US data such as the jobs report and CPI, which is why economists block out that half-hour on release mornings. US equity index futures, Treasury yields and the dollar react within seconds of the figure crossing the wires.

What Is GDP?

Gross Domestic Product is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within the United States in a given period. It is the headline scorecard for the economy: when GDP is rising, the economy is expanding; when it falls, the economy is contracting. The figure that makes headlines is real GDP growth, which strips out the effect of inflation so that the number reflects genuine changes in output rather than changes in prices.

The report is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US government’s national accounting agency. The BEA has published the national income and product accounts since the 1930s, when economist Simon Kuznets developed the framework for the US Congress in the wake of the Great Depression. Today the quarterly GDP release is one of the most closely watched economic publications in the world, feeding directly into Federal Reserve policy deliberations, Congressional budget forecasts and corporate planning.

One quirk matters enormously for international readers: the United States reports GDP growth as a quarterly rate that has been annualised. The headline figure answers the question “if the economy kept growing at this quarter’s pace for a full year, how much would it grow?” Most of Europe, including the UK and the euro area, instead reports the simple quarter-on-quarter change or the year-on-year change. A US print of 2.0 percent annualised corresponds to roughly 0.5 percent quarter on quarter in European terms. Comparing a US annualised figure directly against a UK or euro area quarterly figure makes American growth look 4 times stronger than it is, a mistake that appears in commentary surprisingly often.

Each quarter’s GDP is published 3 times. The advance estimate arrives about 4 weeks after the quarter ends and is built partly on assumptions, because some source data are not yet available. The second estimate, a month later, incorporates more complete data on trade, inventories and services. The third estimate, a further month on, is the most complete quarterly reading, although the figures remain subject to annual and comprehensive revisions for years afterwards.

How GDP Is Calculated

The BEA’s headline measure uses the expenditure approach, which adds up everything spent on US final output. The formula is consumption plus investment plus government spending plus net exports.

Personal consumption expenditures are the largest component at roughly 68 percent of GDP, covering household spending on everything from groceries and rent to healthcare and streaming subscriptions. Gross private domestic investment covers business spending on equipment, software, structures and intellectual property, plus residential construction and changes in inventories. Government consumption and investment captures federal, state and local spending on goods, services and infrastructure, though not transfer payments such as Social Security. Net exports is exports minus imports; because the US runs a trade deficit, this component usually subtracts from the total.

Revisions are a feature, not a flaw. The advance estimate is published before complete data exist for the third month of the quarter, so the BEA fills the gaps with statistical assumptions. As real data replace assumptions, the figure moves. The gap can be substantial: the advance estimate for Q4 2025 showed growth of 1.4 percent, but by the third estimate the figure had been cut to 0.5 percent. Traders treat the advance number as the market-moving event while economists reserve judgement until later vintages.

Between official releases, markets lean on nowcasts, the best known being the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model. GDPNow mechanically updates a running estimate of the current quarter’s growth every time relevant source data are published. It is not an official forecast, but it has become the de facto real-time proxy for US growth and often anchors market expectations heading into the advance estimate.

What GDP Means for Your Money

GDP is the clearest single signal of whether the economy is growing or shrinking, and that filters through to households in concrete ways. Strong GDP growth generally means companies are selling more, hiring more and raising wages. Weak or negative growth points the other way: hiring freezes, layoffs and squeezed incomes. The link between output and employment is tight enough that economists watch GDP and the monthly jobs report as 2 views of the same underlying economy.

GDP also steers the Federal Reserve, and through the Fed, the price of money. When growth runs hot alongside high inflation, the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates or keep them elevated, pushing up mortgage rates, credit card APRs and business borrowing costs, while lifting the interest paid on savings accounts and money market funds. When growth stalls, the Fed leans towards cutting rates, which works in reverse: cheaper mortgages and loans, but lower returns on cash. The sluggish 0.5 percent reading for Q4 2025 and the modest 1.6 percent for Q1 2026 are exactly the kind of prints that feed the debate about how quickly the Fed should ease.

A persistent misconception is that 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP automatically equals a recession. That rule of thumb is widely quoted but it is not the official definition. In the United States, recessions are dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), whose Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs a broad set of indicators including employment, real income, industrial production and consumer spending, not just GDP. The first half of 2022 produced 2 negative quarters without an NBER recession call, because the jobs market remained strong throughout.

How Markets React to GDP

The advance estimate is the release that moves markets most, because it delivers the largest dose of new information. By the time the second and third estimates arrive, investors have already seen 1 or 2 months of fresher monthly data, so revisions typically cause only modest moves unless they are unusually large, as the 0.7 percentage point cut to Q4 2025 in March 2026 was.

The reaction pattern depends on the gap between the printed number and the consensus forecast, and on what the figure implies for Federal Reserve policy. A strong beat tends to lift Treasury yields and the US dollar as traders price out rate cuts; equities can move either way, rallying on the growth signal or selling off if the number is hot enough to delay easing. A weak print tends to drag yields and the dollar lower and raises the odds of Fed cuts. Markets also look past the headline to the composition: the strength of personal consumption, the contribution from inventories and trade (which often distort the headline), and the core “final sales to private domestic purchasers” measure that the Fed itself watches as a cleaner read on underlying demand.

The Q3 2025 episode showed how distortions can mislead. The 43-day federal government shutdown delayed the release itself and then subtracted roughly 1 percentage point from Q4 2025 growth as federal spending plunged, before the drag reversed in Q1 2026. In quarters like these, markets discount the headline and focus on private demand.

Recent GDP Readings

The table below shows the latest BEA estimates of annualised real GDP growth for the past 9 quarters.

The recent run is choppy. 2024 delivered steady growth of 2.8 percent for the year. 2025 was a rollercoaster: a small contraction in Q1 driven by a surge in imports ahead of new tariffs, a powerful rebound through the middle of the year peaking at 4.4 percent in Q3, then a near-stall at 0.5 percent in Q4 as the government shutdown bit. Full-year 2025 growth came in at 2.1 percent. Q1 2026’s 1.6 percent suggests the economy entered the year growing below trend but still expanding.

Related Economic Events

GDP is best read alongside the other major US releases that feed into it and into Federal Reserve policy.

• FOMC Meetings: the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee weighs each GDP print directly in its policy decisions.
• US Jobs Report: the monthly employment data are the highest-frequency read on the same economy GDP measures each quarter.
• US Retail Sales: a monthly preview of personal consumption, the component that makes up about 68 percent of GDP.
• US PCE Report: produced by the same agency (the BEA) and containing the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge alongside monthly spending data.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time is GDP released?

GDP is released at 8:30am Eastern Time, which is 1:30pm in London for most of the year. The release comes 1 hour before US stock markets open, so the first reaction shows up in index futures, Treasury yields and the dollar.

How often is GDP released?

GDP is measured quarterly, but each quarter is published 3 times: an advance estimate about 4 weeks after the quarter ends, a second estimate a month later, and a third estimate a month after that. In practice this means a GDP release lands almost every month of the year.

What is the difference between the advance and second estimates?

The advance estimate is the first and most market-sensitive reading, built partly on the BEA’s assumptions because complete source data for the final month of the quarter are not yet available. The second estimate replaces those assumptions with actual data on trade, inventories and services, so it is more accurate but less surprising. Revisions between the two can be material: Q1 2026 was cut from 2.0 percent to 1.6 percent, and Q4 2025 from 1.4 percent to 0.7 percent.

What was US GDP last quarter?

US real GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.6 percent in Q1 2026, according to the BEA’s second estimate published on May 28, 2026. The third and most complete estimate is due on June 25, 2026.

Is the US in a recession?

No. As of the latest data, the US economy is growing, with real GDP up 1.6 percent annualised in Q1 2026 following 0.5 percent in Q4 2025. Growth is below trend but positive, and the NBER, which officially dates US recessions, has not declared one. The last quarterly contraction was Q1 2025’s 0.5 percent decline, a single quarter heavily distorted by a pre-tariff import surge.

Why is GDP annualised?

The BEA annualises quarterly growth to make figures directly comparable across periods of different lengths: a quarterly rate, a half-year rate and an annual rate can all be read on the same scale. It also amplifies small changes, making trends easier to spot. The trade-off is international confusion, since the UK and euro area report plain quarter-on-quarter growth. To convert roughly, divide a US annualised figure by 4.

Source: all release dates and results are from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Confirm dates at bea.gov/news/schedule.