China Official PMI September 2026
September 29 @ 9:30 pm - 10:30 pm
China Official PMI September 2026
Next China Official PMI: Wednesday, at 9:30 am CST (9:30 pm ET, 2:30 am London).
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- Manufacturing 49.2, Non-Manufacturin…
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
Updated
The China Official PMI for September 2026 is scheduled for release on September 30, 2026, at 9:30 pm ET (9:30 am China Standard Time on September 30, 2026 local time, or 2:30 am in London on the same day). The figures are published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), working with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), and cover economic activity during September 2026. Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
What is the China Official PMI?
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based gauge of activity in China’s factories and service businesses. Procurement managers at hundreds of firms are asked whether output, new orders, employment, and other measures rose, fell, or stayed flat compared with the previous month. The answers are combined into a single index, where a reading above 50 signals expansion and a reading below 50 signals contraction.
The NBS releases two headline numbers each month: the Manufacturing PMI, covering factories, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI, covering services and construction. Together they form the earliest official snapshot of how the world’s second-largest economy is performing, arriving well before slower data such as trade or industrial production figures.
Investors, central banks, and companies with supply chains running through China watch the release closely because it can move currency markets, commodity prices, and shares of firms exposed to Chinese demand, from mining companies in Australia to carmakers in Germany.
When is the September China Official PMI released?
The release is set for September 30, 2026, at 9:30 am China Standard Time, published on the NBS website. In US terms that is 9:30 pm ET on September 30 (Eastern Daylight Time), and 2:30 am in London on the same calendar day. The NBS typically publishes its PMI figures on the last calendar day of the month being measured, so a September reading is released on September 30 itself, one of the fastest turnarounds among major economic indicators.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the September 2026 release has not yet been widely published by data providers such as Reuters or Bloomberg at the time of writing. Once economists’ surveys are compiled closer to the release date, a median forecast typically appears on financial data terminals and economic calendars.
The most recently confirmed official readings available are for July 2026, when China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI eased to 49.0, according to Mitrade’s coverage of the NBS release. Both readings remained below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
| Measure | Prior (July 2026) | Consensus (September 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | Not yet published |
| Non-Manufacturing PMI | 49.0 | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Renminbi and China-linked equities could firm, commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar may gain | Factories and services are growing faster than expected, suggesting stronger demand from China for raw materials, exports, and consumer goods |
| In line with consensus | Muted reaction, markets largely stick to prior positioning | The economy is performing broadly as economists expected, so little changes for global trade or investment flows |
| Below consensus | Pressure on the renminbi, weaker sentiment for commodity exporters and Asian equities | Chinese activity is slowing more than expected, which can dent demand for goods from trading partners including the UK, Europe, and Australia |
These are possibilities based on how markets have historically responded to PMI surprises, not predictions of what will happen in September 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
China’s manufacturing PMI has spent much of 2026 hovering below the 50 expansion line, reflecting soft domestic demand, a prolonged property market downturn, and uneven export performance. FocusEconomics reported that both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing readings disappointed in July 2026, with the non-manufacturing measure falling to 49.0 from 50.2 in June, signalling weakness had spread from factories into services and construction.
Policymakers at the People’s Bank of China and China’s State Council have been weighing further stimulus to support growth, and PMI trends feed directly into that debate. A run of weak PMI prints tends to raise expectations of additional fiscal spending or interest rate cuts, while a stabilising trend can ease pressure for more support. Because China is the largest trading partner for many Asian, European, and commodity-exporting economies, shifts in its PMI ripple outward into global growth forecasts.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and rates: Weak Chinese data can push global bond yields lower as investors seek safety, which sometimes feeds through to slightly cheaper fixed-rate mortgage pricing in the UK, US, and eurozone, though the link is indirect and often outweighed by domestic central bank decisions.
- Savings: A softer Chinese economy can slow global inflation by lowering demand for oil and industrial metals, which can help keep a lid on the cost of living and, over time, on how far central banks need to raise interest rates that affect savings account returns.
- Jobs and wages: Manufacturers and exporters in countries that sell heavily into China, including Germany, South Korea, and Australia, can see order books thin if PMI readings weaken further, which may eventually show up in hiring decisions.
- Investments and pensions: Funds with exposure to Chinese equities, emerging markets, or commodity producers often move on PMI day. A weaker print can pressure mining and energy shares held in diversified pension portfolios, while a stronger print can lift them.
- Currencies: The renminbi, Australian dollar, and other commodity-linked currencies tend to react most directly. A weak PMI can put downward pressure on these currencies against the US dollar and the pound, affecting the cost of imported goods.
Related events
- Previous release: China Official PMI, August 2026
- Full series schedule and history: China Official PMI hub
- Watch also for China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI, a separate private-sector survey often released a day or two after the official figures
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the September 2026 China Official PMI released?
It is released at 9:30 am China Standard Time on September 30, 2026, which is 9:30 pm ET on September 30 and 2:30 am in London.
How do I read the PMI number?
A reading above 50 means the sector surveyed is expanding compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 means it is contracting; the further from 50, the sharper the change.
Does the China PMI affect UK or US interest rates?
Not directly, since it is not a US or UK indicator, but weak Chinese activity can lower global commodity prices and growth expectations, which central banks such as the Bank of England and Federal Reserve take into account alongside domestic data.
Where is the official PMI release published?
China’s National Bureau of Statistics publishes the figures on its official website, stats.gov.cn, alongside detailed sub-indices for new orders, employment, and prices.
When is the next China Official PMI released after this one?
The following release covers October 2026 data and is typically published on the last day of October 2026, following the NBS’s standard monthly schedule.