Canada CPI October 2026

Statistics Canada publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2026 on Monday, October 19, 2026, at 8:30am ET (1:30pm London). This is the headline inflation report for Canada and covers price changes during September 2026. Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.

What is the Consumer Price Index?

The CPI tracks how much prices change, month to month and year over year, for a fixed basket of goods and services that a typical Canadian household buys. Statistics Canada groups the basket into eight main categories, including food, shelter, transportation, and household operations, then weights each category by how much of a typical budget it represents.

The year-over-year change in the all-items CPI is the figure most often quoted in the news as “the inflation rate”. Alongside it, Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada publish core inflation measures, known as CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common, which strip out volatile items such as fuel and some food prices to show the underlying trend.

Markets watch this release closely because the Bank of Canada sets interest rates with an explicit target of 2% inflation, inside a 1 to 3% control range. A CPI print that surprises to the upside or downside can shift expectations for the Bank’s next rate decision, which in turn moves the Canadian dollar, bond yields and mortgage pricing.

When is the September CPI released?

Statistics Canada releases the September 2026 CPI report on October 19, 2026 at 8:30am ET (1:30pm London time). The data is published on the agency’s website as part of “The Daily” and in the Consumer Price Index Portal, alongside detailed tables covering core measures and contributions by component, according to Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index Portal.

What is the consensus forecast?

At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the September 2026 CPI has not yet been published. Economist estimates for Canadian CPI typically become available closer to the release date, from surveys run by Bloomberg and Reuters, and will be added to this page once published.

The most recent confirmed reading in our research is for July 2026, when the year-over-year inflation rate rose to 3.0%, up from 2.80% in June 2026, according to Trading Economics data drawn from Statistics Canada. TD Economics noted that core inflation was running “slightly above 2%” in that same report, according to TD Economics’ analysis of the July 2026 CPI. The August 2026 print, which sits between that July reading and the September data covered by this release, is due for confirmation closer to publication.

What the result could mean

The scenarios below are possibilities discussed by economists ahead of the release, not predictions of the actual outcome.

Why does this release matter right now?

The Bank of Canada uses CPI, and particularly its core measures, as a key input for interest rate decisions. Through the first half of 2026, headline inflation edged higher, moving from 2.80% in June to 3.0% in July, with core measures sitting just above the Bank’s 2% target, according to TD Economics and Trading Economics. Any further drift away from target in the September data would be watched closely for signs of whether that summer pickup was temporary or the start of a firmer trend.

Because Canada’s economy is closely tied to the United States through trade and cross-border investment, this release is also read alongside the US CPI report for clues about broader North American price pressures. Movements in the Canadian dollar following the release can affect the cost of cross-border shopping, travel and imported goods for both countries.

For policymakers, a run of prints above the 1 to 3% control range would raise the question of whether current interest rate settings are restrictive enough, while a run of prints back near 2% would support the case for holding or cutting rates. Investors in Canadian government bonds, and anyone with a mortgage due for renewal in the months following this release, have a direct stake in which direction that debate moves.

Outside Canada, this report also feeds into how global investors price Canadian assets relative to the United States, the United Kingdom and the eurozone. A widening gap between Canadian and US inflation trends can influence the exchange rate used by travellers, exporters and companies that price goods in both currencies, while European and Asian investors holding Canadian government bonds or resource-sector equities watch the release for signs of where Bank of Canada policy is heading next.

What It Means for Your Money

• Mortgages and loans: A hotter than expected CPI print can reduce the chance of a near-term Bank of Canada rate cut, which matters for anyone renewing a variable-rate mortgage or line of credit. A cooler print can do the opposite.
• Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates in Canada tend to track the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, so a shift in rate-cut expectations after this release can change what savers earn.
• Jobs and wages: Persistently high inflation erodes the real value of pay rises, so wage negotiations and cost-of-living adjustments often reference the CPI figures published in this report.
• Prices you pay: The CPI breakdown shows which categories, such as food, shelter or transport, are driving cost increases, which can help households understand where their budgets are being squeezed hardest.
• Investments, pensions and currencies: A surprise in Canadian inflation can move the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, the pound and the euro, affecting the value of holidays, imports and Canadian assets held by overseas investors, including pension funds with exposure to Canadian bonds and equities.

Related events

• Previous release: Canada CPI, September 2026 data
• Bank of Canada interest rate decisions, which respond directly to CPI trends
• US CPI report, published separately by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, for a North American price comparison

Frequently Asked Questions

What time is the September 2026 Canada CPI released?

Statistics Canada releases the report at 8:30am ET, which is 1:30pm in London, on October 19, 2026.

How should I read the headline versus core CPI figures?

The headline figure includes all prices, including volatile items like fuel, while core measures strip these out to show the Bank of Canada’s preferred view of underlying inflation.

How does this release affect Bank of Canada interest rates?

The Bank of Canada weighs CPI trends, especially core inflation, when deciding whether to raise, hold or cut its policy rate, which in turn affects mortgage and savings rates across Canada.

Where can I find the official release?

The official data is published by Statistics Canada in “The Daily” and the Consumer Price Index Portal on statcan.gc.ca.

When is the next Canada CPI release after this one?

Statistics Canada publishes CPI monthly, typically around the middle of the following month, so the October 2026 CPI report is expected roughly four weeks after this release, with the exact date confirmed on the agency’s release schedule.