Canada CPI February 2027
February 16, 2027 @ 8:30 am - 9:30 am
Canada CPI February 2027
Next Canada CPI: Tuesday, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers January 2027 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 3.1% YoY
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
Updated
Statistics Canada publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2027 covering January 2027 data on Tuesday, February 16, 2027 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time). The CPI is Canada’s main gauge of consumer price inflation and feeds directly into the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decisions. Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
What is the Canada CPI?
The Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in the prices Canadian households pay for a fixed basket of goods and services, including food, shelter, transportation, energy and household operations. Statistics Canada collects prices across the country each month and compares them with the same basket a year earlier to produce the year-over-year inflation rate, as well as a month-over-month, seasonally adjusted change.
Markets focus on two numbers inside the release: the headline CPI, which includes volatile items such as petrol and food, and core inflation measures (including the Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median gauges), which strip out the most volatile price swings to show the underlying trend. The Bank of Canada targets 2% inflation within a control range of 1% to 3%, so any CPI print is read against that target.
Because Canada is a major exporter of energy and agricultural commodities and a close trading partner of the United States, its inflation path also matters for currency markets, cross-border bond yields and companies pricing goods for the North American market.
When is the February 2027 Canada CPI released?
Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the January 2027 CPI data on Tuesday, February 16, 2027 at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London. The release is published as “The Daily” on the Statistics Canada release schedule, with the full data tables and analysis posted to the statcan.gc.ca website at the same time.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the January 2027 CPI print has not yet been published. Economist surveys for Canadian CPI are typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg in the days immediately before release, so a market consensus will only firm up closer to February 16, 2027.
The most recent confirmed CPI reading available is from Statistics Canada’s release for September 2026, published on October 19, 2026, which showed headline CPI rising 3.1% year over year, up from a 3.0% increase in August 2026. By the time the January 2027 figures are released, several more prints (October, November and December 2026) will already be public and will shape expectations for this report.
| Measure | Prior (most recently confirmed) | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (year over year) | 3.1% (September 2026) | Not yet published |
| Core CPI (trim/median average) | Tracking close to the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% control range in 2026 | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Investors could trim bets on Bank of Canada rate cuts, and the Canadian dollar could firm against the US dollar and the pound | Prices are rising faster than expected, which could keep borrowing costs higher for longer |
| In line with consensus | A muted reaction, with the Bank of Canada’s existing rate path left broadly intact | Inflation is behaving roughly as expected, so there is little new information for policy or household budgets |
| Below consensus | Markets could price in a higher chance of a Bank of Canada rate cut, pulling bond yields and the Canadian dollar lower | Price pressures are easing faster than thought, which could eventually translate into lower mortgage and loan rates |
These are possible reactions based on how markets have typically responded to Canadian CPI surprises, not predictions of what will happen on February 16, 2027.
Why does this release matter right now?
Through 2026, Canadian headline inflation moved within the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% control range but drifted higher into the second half of the year, with the year-over-year rate rising from 2.8% in June 2026 to 3.0% in August and 3.1% in September, according to Statistics Canada’s Daily release for September 2026. That drift back towards, and briefly above, the top of the Bank of Canada’s target range has kept policymakers cautious about cutting interest rates further.
The Bank of Canada sets its policy rate with reference to both headline and core CPI, alongside its own survey evidence on wages and business pricing plans. A January 2027 print that confirms inflation is holding near or above 3% would likely reinforce a more cautious stance from the central bank, while a clear slowdown would support arguments for further easing.
Global context also matters. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are watching their own inflation data over the same period, and Canada’s reading is often compared with US CPI trends given how closely the two economies are linked through trade and capital flows. A diverging inflation path between Canada and the United States can widen or narrow the gap between the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy rates, which is one of the key drivers of the Canadian dollar-US dollar exchange rate that affects cross-border shoppers, exporters and investors in both countries.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and borrowing: A hotter than expected CPI print can push Canadian bond yields higher, which feeds into fixed mortgage rates. Variable-rate mortgage holders are more directly exposed to the Bank of Canada’s own policy rate decisions, which this data helps shape.
- Savings: Higher inflation readings tend to support higher savings account and term deposit rates as the Bank of Canada holds or raises its policy rate, while a clear cooling in CPI can see those rates drift down over time.
- Jobs and wages: Persistent inflation above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target erodes the real value of pay rises, meaning wage growth needs to outpace CPI for households to feel better off.
- Prices day to day: The CPI basket covers everyday costs such as groceries, rent, fuel and utilities, so the headline number is a reasonable proxy for how much further a household’s pay cheque is stretching.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: Canadian pension funds and bond investors watch CPI closely because it drives interest rate expectations. A stronger than expected reading can lift the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, the pound and the euro, with knock-on effects for UK and European investors holding Canadian assets, exporters pricing goods in Canadian dollars, and travellers converting currency.
Related events
- Canada CPI, January 2027 data (the release immediately before this one): Canada CPI January 2027
- Bank of Canada interest rate decisions, which respond directly to CPI trends
- Full release history and schedule: Canada CPI
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Canada CPI released?
Statistics Canada publishes the CPI at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London, on the scheduled release date.
How should I read the headline versus core CPI figures?
The headline figure includes volatile items like fuel and fresh food, while core measures such as CPI-trim and CPI-median strip these out to show the underlying inflation trend that the Bank of Canada watches most closely.
How does Canada’s CPI affect interest rates?
The Bank of Canada uses CPI data, alongside other indicators, to decide whether to raise, hold or cut its policy interest rate, which in turn influences mortgage rates, savings rates and borrowing costs across the economy.
Where can I find the official CPI release?
The official release is published by Statistics Canada as “The Daily” on statcan.gc.ca, with full data tables, analysis and historical series.
When is the next Canada CPI report released?
Statistics Canada publishes CPI monthly. Check the Canada CPI hub page for the confirmed date of the following release.