Canada CPI December 2026
December 14 @ 8:30 am - 9:30 am
Canada CPI December 2026
Next Canada CPI: Monday, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 3.0% YoY
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
Updated
Statistics Canada releases the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2026 on Monday, December 14, 2026, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time). The report is Canada’s main measure of consumer price inflation and is watched closely by the Bank of Canada, currency traders and anyone with a mortgage, savings account or pension tied to Canadian assets. Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
What is the Canada Consumer Price Index?
The CPI tracks the change in prices Canadians pay for a fixed basket of goods and services, covering eight major groups including food, shelter, transportation and household operations. Statistics Canada compares the cost of this basket month to month and year to year, and the year-over-year change is the headline inflation figure most reported in the news.
Alongside the headline number, Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada also track “core” measures that strip out volatile items such as gasoline and some food prices. The two most closely watched are the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI, both designed to show the underlying trend in prices without short-term noise from a single volatile category. These core measures matter because the Bank of Canada uses them, alongside headline inflation, to decide whether interest rates need to rise, fall or hold steady.
Markets watch CPI because it feeds directly into interest rate decisions. Persistently high inflation tends to keep the Bank of Canada cautious about cutting rates, while a sustained slowdown gives it room to lower borrowing costs. Because Canada’s economy is closely linked to the United States through trade, the CPI print is also watched by investors in the US, Europe and Asia for signs of how tariffs, energy prices and global demand are feeding through to consumer costs.
When is the November CPI released?
Statistics Canada publishes the November 2026 CPI report on Monday, December 14, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time). The release is published on the agency’s website as part of “The Daily” bulletin, with the full statistical tables available through the Consumer Price Index portal. Statistics Canada has confirmed this release date as part of its published 2026 release calendar.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the November 2026 CPI reading has not yet been published. Consensus estimates from surveys such as those compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg typically appear in the days immediately before the release, once economists have incorporated the most recent trade, energy and labour market data.
The most recently confirmed Statistics Canada figures at the time of writing were for July 2026, when headline inflation rose to 3.0% year-on-year from 2.8% in June 2026, a move TD Economics described as “one tick higher than markets were anticipating”. Core measures had been softening: the median CPI stood at 1.9% and the trimmed-mean CPI at 1.8% in June 2026, both described by Trading Economics as their “lowest in over five years” at that point.
| Measure | Prior (June 2026) | Latest confirmed (July 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (year-on-year) | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Median CPI (Bank of Canada core measure) | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Trimmed-mean CPI (Bank of Canada core measure) | 2.0% | 1.8% |
Figures for August, September, October and November 2026 were not yet confirmed through an official Statistics Canada release at the time this page was prepared. Readers should check the official StatCan release for the most current reading before the November print is published.
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Bond yields and the Canadian dollar could firm as traders trim bets on near-term rate cuts | Prices are rising faster than expected, which could keep the Bank of Canada cautious about lowering interest rates, meaning higher borrowing costs stay in place for longer |
| In line with consensus | Muted market reaction, with focus shifting to the core inflation components | Inflation is behaving broadly as expected, so the Bank of Canada’s existing policy plan is unlikely to change because of this release alone |
| Below consensus | The Canadian dollar could soften and short-term bond yields could fall as markets price in a greater chance of a rate cut | Prices are rising more slowly than expected, which could give the Bank of Canada more room to cut interest rates and support borrowers |
These are possible market reactions described by analysts, not predictions. Statistics Canada’s July 2026 report noted that gasoline prices were a key driver of the headline rate, rising 25.7% year-on-year that month, while shelter and grocery price inflation continued to ease, according to Statistics Canada.
Why does this release matter right now?
Canadian inflation has been on an uneven path through 2026. After falling from the 40-year peak of 6.8% reached in June 2022, headline CPI settled below 2% for stretches of 2025 before drifting higher again into the summer of 2026, according to data compiled by WealthNorth using Statistics Canada’s official series. The July 2026 uptick to 3.0% was driven largely by higher pump prices linked to renewed tensions between Iran and the United States, which pushed wholesale fuel costs higher.
A separate and persistent theme through 2026 has been the risk that US tariffs on Canadian goods pass through into consumer prices, particularly for imported machinery, vehicles and some food inputs, a risk Statistics Canada has flagged directly. TD Economics noted that the threat of 50% tariffs on some Canadian exports remained unresolved through the summer, adding uncertainty to the inflation outlook. The Bank of Canada has said it will remain “data-dependent” given these external risks, meaning each CPI print carries extra weight for its rate decisions in the months ahead.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and loans: If inflation runs hotter than expected, the Bank of Canada is less likely to cut its policy rate soon, which keeps variable mortgage rates and lines of credit more expensive. A cooler than expected reading increases the chance of rate cuts, which could eventually lower monthly payments for homeowners renewing a mortgage.
- Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) tend to move with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, so a weaker inflation print could see savings rates edge down over time, while a stronger print could keep them higher for longer.
- Jobs and wages: Persistent inflation above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target can squeeze household budgets if wage growth does not keep pace, particularly for lower income households who spend a larger share of income on food and fuel.
- Prices in everyday life: Grocery and fuel prices have been the biggest swing factors in Canadian CPI through 2026. Anyone budgeting for household bills should watch these two categories closely in the release, as they can move the headline number even when underlying inflation is stable.
- Investments, pensions and the currency: The Canadian dollar tends to strengthen when inflation surprises to the upside, since it reduces the odds of near-term rate cuts, and to weaken on a downside surprise. This matters for UK, European and Asian investors holding Canadian dollar assets or bonds, as well as for pension funds with exposure to Canadian equities and fixed income.
Related events
- Previous release: Canada CPI, November 2026 data (October release)
- Full release history and background: Canada CPI hub
- The next Bank of Canada interest rate decision, which typically follows the CPI release by one to two weeks and takes this data into account
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 Canada CPI released?
Statistics Canada publishes the report at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London, on Monday, December 14, 2026.
How do I read the CPI report?
Focus first on the year-on-year headline figure, then check the median and trimmed-mean core measures, which strip out volatile items like gasoline and give a clearer picture of the underlying inflation trend the Bank of Canada watches most closely.
How does this release affect Bank of Canada interest rates?
The Bank of Canada uses CPI data, particularly the core measures, to help decide whether to raise, cut or hold its policy rate, so a surprise in either direction can shift market expectations for the next rate decision.
Where can I find the official release?
The report is published on the Statistics Canada website as part of “The Daily” bulletin, with full data tables available through the Consumer Price Index portal.
When is the next Canada CPI report released?
Statistics Canada typically releases CPI data roughly three weeks after the end of each reference month, so the December 2026 CPI report is expected in mid-January 2027, with the exact date confirmed on the agency’s published release calendar closer to the time.