UK CPI Inflation October 2026
October 21 @ 2:00 am - 3:00 am
UK CPI Inflation October 2026
Next UK CPI Inflation: Wednesday, at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London). Covers September 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 2.9% (August 2026)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: UK CPI Inflation.
Updated
The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for September 2026 is released on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET) by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is the headline measure of how much prices for everyday goods and services rose or fell over the twelve months to September 2026. Full background and the release schedule are on the UK CPI report hub, and the previous instalment, covering August 2026 data, is covered on the September 2026 CPI page.
What is the UK Consumer Prices Index?
The CPI tracks the change in prices of a fixed “basket” of around 700 goods and services that a typical UK household buys, from food and fuel to rent and haircuts. The ONS collects tens of thousands of prices each month from shops, websites and service providers, weights them according to how much households actually spend on each category, and compares the total cost of the basket with the same month a year earlier. The result is the annual, or “headline”, inflation rate.
Alongside the headline figure, the ONS publishes core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. Because petrol and gas bills can jump around for reasons that have nothing to do with the underlying strength of the economy, core inflation is often treated as a cleaner signal of persistent price pressure, particularly for wages and services.
Markets watch this release closely because the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) targets 2% CPI inflation and adjusts Bank Rate largely on the basis of where inflation is heading. A hotter-than-expected reading tends to push back expectations of interest rate cuts, while a cooler reading can revive them, with knock-on effects for the pound, gilt yields and mortgage pricing.
When is the September CPI report released?
The ONS is scheduled to publish the September 2026 CPI bulletin on October 21, 2026 at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET), alongside the CPIH (which includes owner-occupier housing costs) and the older Retail Prices Index (RPI). The release will appear on the ONS website and its release calendar, with the underlying tables published in the “Consumer price inflation” dataset. This date follows the ONS’s normal monthly rhythm of publishing inflation data roughly three weeks after the end of the reference month.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of publication, a consensus forecast for the September 2026 CPI report has not yet been published. City economists and data providers typically publish their median forecasts in the days immediately before the release, once August’s trade, wage and fuel-price data have fed through to their models. This page will be updated once that consensus is available.
The most recent confirmed reading is for August 2026, when annual CPI inflation stood at 2.9%, according to ONS data reported by SalaryWise’s tracker of official ONS figures. That followed a reading of 2.6% for the year to June 2026, itself down from 2.8% in both May and April 2026, as reported by MoneyWeek.
| Measure | Prior (August 2026) | Consensus (September 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (annual) | 2.9% | Not yet published |
| Core CPI (annual) | Not yet confirmed | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Traders would likely push back bets on Bank of England rate cuts, and the pound could firm as gilt yields rise | Prices are rising faster than expected, so borrowing is likely to stay expensive for longer |
| In line with consensus | Muted reaction, with markets largely sticking to their existing view of the Bank of England’s next move | Inflation is behaving roughly as expected, so there is no strong new signal for savers or borrowers |
| Below consensus | Markets would likely bring forward expectations of a rate cut, and gilt yields and the pound could soften | Prices are cooling faster than expected, which could eventually feed through to cheaper mortgages |
These are possibilities based on how markets have typically reacted to inflation surprises, not predictions of what will happen on October 21, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
UK inflation has been on a choppy path through 2026, easing from 2.8% in the spring to 2.6% by June before climbing back to 2.9% in August, according to the ONS data cited above. The Bank of England has repeatedly said it wants to see a sustained move back toward its 2% target before it commits to further interest rate cuts, and the MPC has flagged sticky services inflation and wage growth as the areas it is watching most closely.
Because the September reading arrives shortly before the Bank of England’s next scheduled rate decision, it carries extra weight in shaping how confident policymakers feel about the disinflation process. Higher-than-expected food, energy or services costs would reinforce the case for caution, while a clear slowdown would strengthen the argument for further easing. The reading also matters beyond the UK: sterling moves in response to UK inflation surprises ripple into euro and dollar exchange rates, and any signal about the pace of UK rate cuts feeds into how European and US bond markets price their own central banks’ next steps.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and loans: A higher-than-expected inflation reading tends to reduce the chances of an imminent Bank of England rate cut, which can keep fixed mortgage rates and other borrowing costs higher for longer. A lower reading can do the opposite, potentially feeding through to cheaper new mortgage deals over time.
- Savings: Banks and building societies often adjust savings account rates in anticipation of Bank Rate moves, so a surprise inflation print can shift what you are offered on new fixed-term savings bonds and cash ISAs.
- Wages and jobs: Inflation erodes the real value of pay rises. If CPI runs hotter than wage growth, households effectively lose spending power even if their pay packet looks the same or slightly larger.
- Everyday prices: The CPI basket includes food, fuel, rent and household bills, so this release is a direct read on whether the weekly shop and energy costs are likely to keep rising or start easing.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: UK equities, gilts and the pound can all move on the day of release. Pension funds and annuity providers watch inflation closely because it affects both investment returns and the cost of inflation-linked pension payments. A weaker pound following a soft inflation print can also make imports and overseas holidays more expensive for UK consumers, while a stronger pound has the opposite effect.
Related events
- UK CPI Inflation for August 2026, released on September 16, 2026: see the previous CPI report page
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision, which weighs this inflation data heavily
- UK average weekly earnings and labour market data, published separately by the ONS and closely linked to the Bank of England’s inflation outlook
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the UK September CPI report released?
The Office for National Statistics publishes the report at 7:00 am London time on October 21, 2026, which is 2:00 am ET.
How do I read the CPI figure?
The headline number is the annual percentage change in prices compared with the same month a year earlier; a rate above the Bank of England’s 2% target signals inflation running hotter than the central bank’s goal.
How does this data affect UK interest rates?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses CPI trends as a key input when deciding whether to raise, hold or cut Bank Rate, so persistent inflation surprises can shift the timing of rate decisions.
Where can I find the official release?
The full bulletin and datasets are published on the ONS release calendar and the consumer price inflation section of the ONS website.
When is the next UK CPI report?
The following release covers October 2026 data and is expected roughly a month after this one, following the ONS’s usual monthly publication schedule; check the UK CPI report hub for the confirmed date.