Canada CPI November 2026
November 16 @ 8:30 am - 9:30 am
Canada CPI November 2026
Next Canada CPI: Monday, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers October 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 3.0% YoY (July 2026)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
Updated
Statistics Canada publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2026 on Monday, November 16, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time). The report is the country’s main measure of inflation and is watched closely by the Bank of Canada, mortgage holders and anyone paid in Canadian dollars. Full background and the release schedule for this series are on the Canada CPI hub page.
What is the Canada CPI?
The Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices that Canadian households pay for a fixed basket of goods and services, including food, shelter, transport, clothing and recreation. Statistics Canada collects prices from thousands of retailers and service providers across the country each month and compares them with the same basket a year earlier to produce the year-over-year inflation rate that makes headlines.
Alongside the headline number, Statistics Canada publishes core inflation measures, including the trimmed-mean and median CPI, which strip out the most volatile price swings, typically in gasoline and food. These core measures are the ones the Bank of Canada leans on most heavily when setting interest rates, because they are thought to better reflect the underlying trend in prices rather than one-off shocks.
Markets watch the CPI because it feeds directly into the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decisions. A stronger-than-expected reading can push bond yields and the Canadian dollar higher on expectations that rates will stay higher for longer, while a weaker reading can do the opposite. Basis points, a term used throughout rate markets, simply mean hundredths of a percentage point, so 25 basis points equals 0.25%.
When is the October CPI released?
Statistics Canada will publish the October 2026 CPI report on Monday, November 16, 2026 at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London. The data appears in “The Daily”, the agency’s official release bulletin, and in the accompanying data tables on the Statistics Canada website. Statistics Canada typically releases CPI data around the third week of the following month, so this date follows the usual pattern for the series.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of the time of writing, no consensus forecast for the October 2026 CPI has yet been published by major polling desks such as Reuters or Bloomberg. These forecasts are usually compiled by economists surveyed in the days immediately before the release, so a consensus figure typically appears closer to the publication date. Readers should check back nearer November 16, 2026 for an updated forecast.
The most recent confirmed reading available at the time of writing was for July 2026, when the CPI rose 3.0% year over year, up from a 2.8% gain in June 2026, according to Statistics Canada’s official release. Two further monthly reports, for August and September 2026, will be published before this November report on October CPI, so readers should treat the July figure as background context rather than the immediate prior print.
| Measure | Prior (July 2026) | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (year over year) | 3.0% | Not yet published |
| CPI excluding gasoline | 2.2% | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Bond yields and the Canadian dollar could rise on bets that the Bank of Canada holds rates higher for longer | Prices rose faster than expected, which could keep borrowing costs elevated for households and businesses |
| In line with consensus | A muted market reaction, since traders will have already priced in the expected figure | Inflation is behaving broadly as economists predicted, so the current interest rate path likely continues unchanged |
| Below consensus | Yields and the Canadian dollar could soften as markets price in a greater chance of rate cuts | Prices rose more slowly than expected, which could ease pressure on mortgage and loan costs over time |
These are possibilities discussed by economists and traders, not predictions of what will happen. Analysts at TD Economics have previously noted that gasoline prices remain one of the biggest swing factors behind month-to-month surprises in the headline figure.
Why does this release matter right now?
Canadian inflation has been drifting above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target through much of 2026, with the headline rate moving between roughly 1.8% and 3.2% over the course of the year, according to Statistics Canada’s monthly releases. Energy price swings, tied in part to tensions in the Middle East affecting global oil markets, have been a recurring driver of month-to-month volatility, while shelter costs, particularly rent and homeowners’ costs, have remained a persistent source of underlying price pressure, as noted in commentary from WealthNorth’s inflation tracker.
The Bank of Canada uses the CPI, and particularly its core measures, to judge whether its policy interest rate is appropriately calibrated. If inflation cools further towards target, it strengthens the case for the Bank to continue cutting rates. If it proves stickier than hoped, especially in shelter and services, policymakers may choose to hold rates steady for longer. This October report lands in the window before the Bank’s next scheduled rate announcement, so it will feed directly into that debate.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and loans: A hotter-than-expected CPI print can reduce the chances of near-term Bank of Canada rate cuts, which matters most for anyone on a variable-rate mortgage or renewing a fixed-rate deal soon.
- Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates tend to track the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, so a weaker inflation reading that raises the odds of rate cuts could eventually mean lower returns on cash savings.
- Jobs and wages: Persistently high inflation erodes the real value of pay rises, so workers may push harder for wage increases if the CPI keeps running above the Bank’s 2% target.
- Prices and household budgets: The shelter and food components of the CPI have the most direct effect on everyday spending, so movements in rent, groceries and fuel prices tend to be felt immediately by households.
- Investments, pensions and the loonie: Bond markets, pension fund discount rates and the Canadian dollar all react to shifts in inflation expectations. A weaker Canadian dollar can also make imported goods more expensive, which has knock-on effects for UK, European and Asian exporters selling into the Canadian market, as well as for Canadians travelling or investing abroad.
Related events
- Previous release: Canada CPI, October 2026 report
- Full release calendar and background: Canada CPI hub page
- The next Bank of Canada interest rate decision, which typically follows within weeks of this release
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Canada CPI for October 2026 released?
Statistics Canada publishes the report at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time) on Monday, November 16, 2026.
How should I read the headline CPI figure?
The headline figure is the year-over-year change in average prices, but the core measures, such as the trimmed-mean and median CPI, are watched more closely by the Bank of Canada because they filter out one-off swings in items like gasoline.
How does this release affect Bank of Canada interest rate decisions?
The Bank of Canada uses CPI trends, especially the core measures, to judge whether inflation is moving back towards its 2% target, which directly informs whether it holds, cuts or raises its policy interest rate.
Where can I find the official release?
The report is published in “The Daily” on the Statistics Canada website, alongside detailed data tables covering provinces and CPI components.
When is the next Canada CPI release?
Statistics Canada typically publishes CPI data around the third week of each month, so the next report, covering November 2026 data, is expected in mid-December 2026.