UK GDP December 2026
December 11 @ 2:00 am - 3:00 am
UK GDP December 2026
Next UK GDP: Friday, at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London). Covers Q3 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 0.4% growth
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: UK GDP.
Updated
The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for December 2026 is released on Friday, December 11, 2026 at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET) by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This release covers economic output data for the third quarter of 2026 (July to September), the ONS’s main measure of how fast, or slowly, the UK economy is growing. Full background and the schedule of upcoming releases is available on the UK GDP hub page.
What is UK GDP?
Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK economy over a given period. It is the broadest single gauge of economic health available and the figure most often quoted when politicians, economists or journalists talk about the economy “growing” or “shrinking”.
The ONS builds GDP from three angles that should, in theory, add up to the same total: output (what businesses and public services actually produced), expenditure (what households, businesses, government and overseas buyers spent) and income (wages, profits and other earnings generated). The headline growth rate compares output in the latest period with the period before, either quarter on quarter or, in the monthly release, on a rolling three-month basis.
Markets watch GDP closely because it feeds directly into decisions at the Bank of England. Faster growth, especially alongside strong wage growth, can add to inflation pressure and argue for holding or raising interest rates. Weaker growth, particularly if it slips towards contraction, increases pressure for rate cuts to support jobs and spending. Two consecutive quarters of falling output is the common definition of a recession.
When is the Q3 2026 GDP report released?
The ONS publishes this release on December 11, 2026 at 7:00am GMT (2:00am ET), on its release calendar and in the Quarterly National Accounts and GDP monthly estimate bulletins on ons.gov.uk. As with all ONS statistics, the exact bulletin and any accompanying data tables go live at the same moment, so there is no early access for market participants.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of now, a consensus forecast has not yet been published for the December 2026 release. City economists and data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically issue their median forecasts only in the days immediately before an ONS release, once more monthly indicators (retail sales, industrial production, trade) for the quarter are available. Financecalendar.com will update this page with the consensus figure and the prior reading once they are confirmed.
The most recent officially confirmed reading from the ONS, at the time of writing, shows real GDP growing by 0.4% in the three months to June 2026, compared with the three months to March 2026, according to the ONS GDP monthly estimate, June 2026. That followed growth of 0.6% in the three months to May 2026 (revised down from 0.7%) and 0.8% in the three months to April 2026.
| Measure | Prior reading | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly GDP growth | 0.4% (three months to June 2026, ONS) | Not yet published |
| Annual GDP growth | To be confirmed | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Sterling could firm and gilt yields may rise, as stronger growth reduces the case for near-term Bank of England rate cuts, a pattern economists have described in commentary on prior above-forecast GDP prints reported by Reuters | The economy grew faster than expected, which can support jobs and wages but may also keep borrowing costs higher for longer |
| In line | A broadly neutral reaction is typical when data matches expectations, according to analysts cited in Reuters market wraps around ONS releases | The economy is performing roughly as expected, so mortgage rates, savings rates and the outlook for the pound are unlikely to move sharply on this data alone |
| Below consensus | Sterling could soften and gilt yields may fall, as weaker growth increases the odds markets attach to future Bank of England rate cuts, a reaction seen in past below-forecast prints per Reuters coverage | The economy grew more slowly than hoped, or shrank, which can eventually feed through to weaker job creation and slower wage growth |
These are possible reactions drawn from how markets have historically responded to GDP surprises, not predictions of what will happen on December 11, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee treats GDP as one of the key inputs into its interest rate decisions, alongside inflation and the labour market. Through the first half of 2026, ONS data showed the UK economy expanding for several consecutive rolling three-month periods, with growth of 0.6% in the three months to March 2026 and 0.4% in the three months to June 2026, according to the ONS first quarterly estimate for Q1 2026 and the June 2026 monthly bulletin. Growth had been slowing gradually across that period even as it remained positive.
Investors and policymakers will be watching whether that gentle slowdown continued, stabilised or reversed over July to September 2026. A weaker than expected Q3 reading would add to the debate over how quickly the Bank of England should lower borrowing costs, while a stronger print would support those on the MPC who argue for a more cautious, gradual approach to rate cuts.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and rates: A weak GDP print can raise expectations of Bank of England rate cuts, which sometimes feeds through to lower fixed mortgage rates over the following weeks. A strong print can do the opposite, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer.
- Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts tend to move in the same direction as expectations for Bank Rate, so weaker growth data that raises the odds of a rate cut can eventually mean lower returns on cash savings.
- Jobs and wages: GDP growth and employment tend to move together over time. A run of weak GDP figures can be an early sign that hiring may slow or wage growth may cool in the following months.
- Prices: Faster growth can add to inflation pressure if demand outpaces the economy’s capacity to supply goods and services, while a slowdown can help take some heat out of prices.
- Investments, pensions and the pound: UK shares, gilts and sterling can all react to a GDP surprise. A stronger than expected reading often supports the pound against the dollar and the euro, while a weaker reading can weigh on it, with knock-on effects for the value of overseas holdings inside pensions and investment portfolios for UK savers, and for the cost of UK assets to European and Asian investors.
Recent GDP readings (three-month on three-month growth)
| Period | Growth rate |
|---|---|
| Three months to June 2026 | 0.4% |
| Three months to May 2026 | 0.6% (revised) |
| Three months to April 2026 | 0.8% |
| Three months to March 2026 | 0.6% |
| Three months to February 2026 | 0.5% |
| Three months to January 2026 | 0.3% (revised) |
Source: ONS GDP monthly estimate bulletins, various 2026 releases.
Related events
- UK GDP November 2026 release
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decisions, which take GDP trends into account when setting Bank Rate
- UK labour market and inflation releases, published in the weeks around each GDP report
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the December 2026 UK GDP report released?
The ONS publishes the report at 7:00am London time on December 11, 2026, which is 2:00am ET.
How do I read the headline GDP figure?
The main number to check is the percentage change in output compared with the previous quarter or rolling three-month period. A positive figure means the economy grew, a negative figure means it shrank.
How does GDP affect UK interest rates?
The Bank of England considers GDP growth alongside inflation and employment when setting Bank Rate. Weak or negative growth can support the case for rate cuts, while strong growth can argue for holding or raising rates.
Where can I find the official GDP release?
The ONS publishes the full bulletin, dataset and revisions on its release calendar at ons.gov.uk at the moment of release.
When is the next UK GDP report after this one?
The ONS publishes GDP data on a monthly and quarterly cycle, with the next release typically following around four to six weeks later. Check the UK GDP hub page for the confirmed date.