UK GDP November 2026
November 12 @ 2:00 am - 3:00 am
UK GDP November 2026
Next UK GDP: Thursday, at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London). Covers Q3 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 0.4% QoQ
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: UK GDP.
Updated
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes its first estimate of UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2026 on Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET). The release covers economic output for July, August and September 2026 and is typically published alongside the monthly GDP estimate for September. Full background and the release schedule are available on the UK GDP hub page.
This is one of the most closely watched UK data points because it tells investors, the Bank of England and the government whether the economy grew, stagnated or shrank in the summer months, feeding directly into interest rate decisions and political debate about living standards.
What is GDP and why does it matter?
Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK over a given period. The ONS builds it from three angles, output (what industries produce), expenditure (what is spent by households, businesses and government) and income (wages, profits and taxes), which should in theory all arrive at the same total.
The headline figure that moves markets is the quarter-on-quarter percentage change in real GDP, meaning growth after stripping out the effect of inflation. A positive number signals expansion, a negative number for two consecutive quarters is commonly, though informally, described as a recession.
Markets watch GDP closely because it is the single broadest gauge of economic health. The Bank of England uses it, alongside inflation and wage data, to judge whether the economy has spare capacity or is running too hot, which in turn shapes decisions on interest rates that affect mortgages, savings and business borrowing across the UK. It is also watched in Brussels, Frankfurt and Tokyo as one signal of demand for exports from the eurozone and Asia into the UK market.
When is the Q3 2026 GDP report released?
The ONS publishes the first quarterly estimate of Q3 2026 GDP, together with the monthly GDP estimate for September 2026, on November 12, 2026 at 7:00am UK time (2:00am ET). The data is released on the ONS release calendar and in the GDP first quarterly estimate bulletin on the ons.gov.uk website. This date follows the ONS’s standard pattern of publishing the first quarterly estimate roughly six weeks after the end of the reference quarter.
What is the consensus forecast?
As this release is still some way ahead, a consensus forecast for Q3 2026 GDP has not yet been published by data providers such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Forecasts typically firm up in the days immediately before release, once monthly GDP prints for July, August and September have been published individually.
The most recent confirmed reading is the first quarterly estimate for Q2 2026 (April to June), published by the ONS on August 13, 2026, which showed real GDP grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, in line with the median forecast in a Reuters poll, following growth of 0.6% in Q1 2026. Nominal GDP rose by 0.8% in Q2 2026 and stood 4.1% higher than the same quarter a year earlier, according to the ONS bulletin.
| Measure | Prior (Q2 2026) | Consensus (Q3 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly GDP (QoQ) | 0.4% | Not yet published |
| Nominal GDP (QoQ) | 0.8% | Not yet published |
| GDP year-on-year (nominal) | 4.1% | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Sterling could firm and gilt yields could rise if traders judge the Bank of England has less room to cut interest rates, according to analysts who track rate-setter commentary | The economy grew faster than expected, which is generally good news for jobs and business confidence, though it can also mean borrowing costs stay higher for longer |
| In line with consensus | A muted reaction is likely, since the print largely confirms what was already priced into markets by economists surveyed ahead of the release | The economy is behaving broadly as expected, so there is unlikely to be a big shift in mortgage rates or the pound on the day |
| Below consensus | Sterling could weaken and traders may increase bets on earlier Bank of England rate cuts, based on typical market reactions to weak growth surprises | Growth undershooting expectations often points to weaker hiring and spending, which can ease pressure on prices but also signals a softer labour market |
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee weighs GDP growth against inflation and wage data when deciding on interest rates, so a Q3 2026 outturn that surprises in either direction could shift market expectations for the Bank’s next move. Growth slowed slightly in the first half of 2026, from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2, according to ONS estimates, and commentators will be watching whether that gentle cooling continued into the summer or whether momentum picked back up.
The report also lands against a backdrop of ongoing debate about UK productivity, household spending power and the fiscal position ahead of any autumn budget measures, all of which tend to be discussed in relation to whatever the latest GDP figure shows.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and borrowing: Stronger than expected growth can reduce the chance of near-term Bank of England interest rate cuts, which may keep mortgage and loan rates higher for longer. Weaker growth can increase the odds of cuts, which could eventually feed through to cheaper borrowing.
Savings: Savings account and cash ISA rates tend to track the Bank of England’s base rate, so a weak GDP print that raises the chance of a rate cut could mean lower returns on cash savings over time, while a strong print could support current rates for longer.
Jobs and wages: GDP growth and employment tend to move together over time. A run of weak GDP figures can be an early sign of slower hiring or wage growth, particularly in sectors sensitive to consumer spending such as retail and hospitality.
Prices: GDP does not directly set prices, but very weak growth combined with falling demand can help cool inflation, while strong growth in an economy already near capacity can add to price pressures.
Investments, pensions and currencies: UK shares, gilts and the pound can all move on the day of release. A weaker pound following soft GDP data can make imports and overseas holidays more expensive for UK households, while making UK exports more competitive for buyers in Europe, Asia and the US. Pension savers with UK-focused funds may see short-term movements in their portfolio values around the release.
Related events
- The previous UK GDP release: UK GDP October 2026
- The Bank of England’s next Monetary Policy Committee decision, which weighs this GDP data alongside inflation and labour market figures
- The UK monthly labour market and average earnings release, published separately by the ONS
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the UK GDP report released?
The ONS publishes the release at 7:00am UK time on November 12, 2026, which is 2:00am ET in the United States.
How should I read the headline GDP number?
Focus on the quarter-on-quarter percentage change in real GDP: a positive figure means the economy grew after adjusting for inflation, a negative figure means it shrank.
How does GDP data affect UK interest rates?
The Bank of England factors GDP growth into its decisions on interest rates, so a much stronger or weaker than expected reading can shift market expectations for future rate moves, which in turn affects mortgage and savings rates.
Where can I find the official GDP release?
The ONS publishes the full bulletin and underlying data tables on the ONS release calendar and on ons.gov.uk under the GDP first quarterly estimate series.
When is the next UK GDP release after this one?
The ONS typically publishes monthly GDP estimates around six weeks after each reference month, with the next full quarterly estimate for Q4 2026 expected in February 2027, subject to confirmation on the ONS release calendar.