China Caixin Manufacturing PMI September 2026 (30)
September 29 @ 9:45 pm - 10:45 pm
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI September 2026 (30)
Next China Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, at 9:45 am CST (9:45 pm ET, 2:45 am London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 50.9 (July 2026)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Updated
The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 is scheduled for release on September 30, 2026 at 9:45pm ET, which is 9:45am China Standard Time on the same day and 2:45am in London. The survey is compiled by S&P Global on behalf of Caixin Media and covers the state of China’s private manufacturing sector. Full background and the release schedule are on the hub page: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Because S&P Global has not yet confirmed the exact publication slot this far in advance, the date above follows the usual pattern: Caixin’s final manufacturing PMI is typically released on the first business day of the month following the survey period. Readers should treat the date as indicative until S&P Global’s official release calendar confirms it.
What is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI?
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index built from a monthly survey of purchasing managers at manufacturing companies. Unlike China’s official government PMI, which leans towards large state-owned firms, the Caixin survey samples smaller and export-oriented private manufacturers, giving a different angle on the same economy.
Survey respondents are asked whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and inventories improved, worsened or stayed the same compared with the previous month. These five components are weighted and combined into a single headline number. A reading above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.
Markets watch this release closely because China is the world’s second-largest economy and its largest manufacturer, so a shift in Chinese factory activity ripples through commodity prices, shipping volumes and demand for goods from Europe, the United States and the rest of Asia.
When is the September Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The release is expected on September 30, 2026 at 9:45pm ET (9:45am China Standard Time, 2:45am London time), published by S&P Global and distributed through Caixin Media’s own channels and financial data terminals. As noted above, this date has not been formally confirmed by the publisher and should be treated as an estimate based on the standard first-business-day-of-the-month schedule.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the September 2026 reading has not yet been published. Forecasts for Caixin PMI releases typically only firm up in the days immediately before the print, once economists have seen related data such as the official National Bureau of Statistics PMI and trade figures.
The most recently confirmed reading, covering July 2026, came in at 50.9, easing from June’s 51.7 and falling short of the 51.5 figure that economists had pencilled in, according to VT Markets. The index remained above the 50 expansion threshold despite the slowdown.
| Measure | Prior (July 2026) | Consensus (September 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Headline PMI | 50.9 | Not yet published |
| New orders sub-index | Expanding, 14th month in a row | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Read as a sign that private manufacturers are holding up better than feared, potentially supporting risk appetite and commodity-linked currencies | Chinese factories are getting more orders and producing more, which could mean stronger demand for raw materials and shipping worldwide |
| In line with consensus | Likely a muted reaction since the number confirms an already-priced trend | The pace of factory activity is roughly what economists expected, so little changes for global markets |
| Below consensus | Could be read as evidence of cooling domestic demand, adding to pressure on Beijing to support growth, as flagged after July’s miss by VT Markets | Chinese factories are struggling to get orders, which can mean weaker demand for goods and materials that other countries sell into China |
These are possible reactions, not predictions. Actual market moves depend on other data released the same week and on broader sentiment towards China’s economy.
Why does this release matter right now?
China’s factory sector has been on a bumpy path through 2026. The Caixin PMI climbed to 52.1 in February before slipping to 50.8 in March, then recovering through the spring and early summer, only to ease back to 50.9 in July as output and new order growth slowed, according to Trading Economics. Employment had been improving, with job creation reaching its strongest level since August 2023, even as input price inflation continued to ease.
Investors and policymakers are watching whether the slowdown seen mid-year continues or reverses, because sustained weakness in China’s private manufacturers would add to pressure on Beijing to unveil more stimulus and could weigh on global trade volumes and commodity demand heading into the final quarter of the year.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and rates: A weak Chinese PMI can pull down global bond yields as investors seek safety, which sometimes feeds through to slightly lower long-term mortgage rates in the UK, Europe and the US.
- Savings: Central banks in major economies factor Chinese demand into their own inflation outlook, so persistent weakness could reinforce expectations of lower interest rates, which in turn can mean lower returns on cash savings over time.
- Jobs and wages: Countries that export heavily to China, including Germany, South Korea, Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, can see hiring intentions shift with Chinese factory demand.
- Prices: Chinese manufacturing strength affects global supply of goods and industrial materials, which can influence the price of everything from electronics to metals used in construction.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: Equity markets tied to commodities, shipping and China-exposed multinationals often react to this release, and the Australian dollar, the euro and emerging market currencies tend to be more sensitive to Chinese data than the pound or the yen.
Related events
- Previous month’s release: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, prior month
- China’s official National Bureau of Statistics Manufacturing PMI, published a day or two before the Caixin figure each month
- Caixin Services and Composite PMI, usually released a few days after the manufacturing print
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
It is expected at 9:45pm ET on September 30, 2026, which is 9:45am in China and 2:45am in London, though S&P Global has not yet confirmed this date.
How do I read the PMI number?
A reading above 50 indicates manufacturing activity is expanding compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 indicates it is contracting.
Does this release move interest rates directly?
No single PMI print changes interest rates on its own, but persistently weak or strong readings feed into how central banks and investors judge the health of the Chinese, and by extension global, economy.
Where can I find the official release?
The official release calendar is published by S&P Global, with the report also distributed by Caixin Media.
When is the next Caixin Manufacturing PMI due?
Caixin typically publishes its manufacturing PMI on the first business day of each month, so the next reading would normally follow around a month after this one.