China Caixin Manufacturing PMI November 2026
November 1 @ 8:45 pm - 9:45 pm
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI November 2026
Next China Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Monday, at 9:45 am CST (8:45 pm ET, 1:45 am London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 50.9 (July 2026)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Updated
The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is scheduled for release on November 2, 2026, at 9:45 am China Standard Time (9:45 pm ET on November 1, and 1:45 am in London on November 2). The survey is compiled by S&P Global for Caixin Insight Group and, following a sponsorship change during 2026, the headline index is now also published under the name RatingDog Manufacturing PMI. This release covers manufacturing activity in October 2026, gathered from purchasing managers at more than 500 mostly small and mid-sized Chinese manufacturers. Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
What is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI?
The Caixin (now also branded RatingDog) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey-based gauge of factory activity in China. Purchasing managers are asked whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchased items rose, fell or stayed the same compared with the previous month. Those answers are combined into a single index, weighted at 30% new orders, 25% output, 20% employment, 15% suppliers’ delivery times and 10% stocks of purchased items, with the delivery times component inverted so it moves in the same direction as the rest.
A reading above 50 signals expansion in the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50 signals contraction. Because the survey panel leans towards smaller, export-oriented and privately-owned firms, it is widely treated as a complement to China’s official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI, which surveys larger, often state-owned, companies. When the two diverge, traders often read the Caixin figure as a better proxy for the private, trade-exposed part of the economy.
Investors, currency traders and commodity desks in Asia, Europe and the United States watch the release closely because China remains the world’s largest manufacturer and a major buyer of raw materials. A weak print can pressure the Australian dollar, industrial metals prices and the shares of companies with large China exposure, while a strong print can lift risk appetite across Asian and European equity markets.
When is the November Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The report is due on Monday, November 2, 2026, at 9:45 am China Standard Time, which is 9:45 pm ET the previous evening and 1:45 am in London. S&P Global publishes the exact release calendar in advance, and the November date has not yet been formally confirmed at the time of writing. In practice, the manufacturing PMI is published on the first business day of the month covering the prior month’s activity, so November 2, 2026 follows that usual pattern.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 release (covering October activity) has not yet been published by major polling services. Forecasts for PMI readings are typically only compiled in the days immediately before release. The most recently confirmed reading available at the time of writing is July 2026, when the index fell to a four-month low of 50.9, down from 51.7 in June, according to data compiled by Trading Economics. June’s reading of 51.7 was itself down from 51.8 in May.
| Measure | Prior reading | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Headline PMI | 50.9 (July 2026) | Not yet published |
| New Orders sub-index | Not separately confirmed | Not yet published |
Readers should treat the July figure as background context rather than the immediate prior, since further monthly readings for August and September 2026 will have been published before the November release. Check the official S&P Global release calendar or Caixin Insight Group’s own site closer to the date for the confirmed prior and consensus.
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Possible modest lift to risk appetite in Asian and commodity-linked markets | Chinese factories are growing faster than expected, which could support demand for raw materials and Asian exporters |
| In line with consensus | Limited market reaction expected | Manufacturing activity is behaving broadly as anticipated, so traders are unlikely to reposition heavily |
| Below consensus | Possible pressure on commodity currencies and China-exposed equities | Factories are struggling more than expected, which can weigh on demand for exports from trading partners and on metals prices |
These are possibilities rather than predictions. Actual market moves depend on other data released the same week, the tone of Chinese policy signals, and broader global risk sentiment.
Why does this release matter right now?
China’s manufacturing sector has been showing signs of gradual slowing through the middle of 2026, with the Caixin gauge easing from 51.8 in May to 51.7 in June and then to a four-month low of 50.9 in July, according to Trading Economics. That slowdown matters because manufacturing and exports remain central to China’s growth model, and weaker factory activity can filter through to global supply chains, shipping volumes and commodity demand. Policymakers in Beijing have used stimulus measures at various points in 2026 to support activity, and each new PMI print is used by economists to judge whether that support is working.
Outside China, central banks and trade-exposed businesses in Europe, the UK and Asia watch the series as an early signal of demand from one of their largest trading partners. A sustained slowdown in Chinese manufacturing tends to show up later in weaker export orders for countries such as Germany, South Korea and Australia.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and rates: The Caixin PMI itself does not move UK or US mortgage rates directly, but weaker Chinese growth can feed into global bond markets and, indirectly, into borrowing costs, particularly if it changes expectations for global central bank policy.
- Savings: A weak reading that pushes commodity prices down can help ease global inflation pressure over time, which may support the case for interest rate cuts and, eventually, lower savings returns.
- Jobs and wages: Workers in export-heavy industries in Asia, Germany and Australia are more exposed to swings in Chinese manufacturing demand than most UK or US employees.
- Prices: Slower Chinese factory activity can reduce demand for industrial metals and energy, which sometimes shows up as softer prices at the pump or for manufactured goods elsewhere.
- Investments and pensions: Pension funds and index trackers with exposure to Asian equities, mining companies or commodity-linked shares can see short-term price swings around this release.
- Currencies: The Australian dollar and other commodity-linked currencies often react to Chinese PMI surprises, and moves can spill over into the pound, euro and dollar through shifts in broader risk sentiment.
Related events
- Previous release: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, September 2026
- China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI, typically published a day or two before the Caixin figure each month
- China Caixin Services PMI, usually released a few days after the manufacturing figure
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
It is scheduled for 9:45 am China Standard Time on November 2, 2026, which is 9:45 pm ET on November 1 and 1:45 am in London on November 2.
How do I read the Caixin Manufacturing PMI figure?
A reading above 50 means manufacturing activity is expanding compared with the previous month; a reading below 50 means it is contracting.
Does the Caixin PMI affect UK or US interest rates directly?
No, it is not a UK or US indicator, but it can influence global sentiment towards growth and inflation, which central banks take into account alongside their own domestic data.
Where is the official release published?
The figure is released by S&P Global on behalf of Caixin Insight Group, with the release calendar available on the S&P Global PMI release schedule.
When is the next Caixin Manufacturing PMI released after this one?
The next release typically follows on the first business day of December 2026, covering November 2026 activity, though the exact date is confirmed nearer the time.