RBA Rate Decision November 2026
November 3
RBA Rate Decision November 2026
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its November 2026 interest rate decision on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, at 2:30 pm AEST. The Monetary Policy Board meets over two days (2-3 November), with the outcome published alongside the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) at 2:30 pm AEST. November is one of four SMP meetings, making it one of the most significant in the annual calendar, as the Board publishes updated forecasts for inflation, GDP growth, and the labour market. A press conference with the Governor follows at 3:30 pm AEST.
RBA Rate Decision: November 3, 2026
The November meeting is the seventh Monetary Policy Board decision of 2026 and carries extra weight as a quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy meeting. The SMP provides the most comprehensive communication from the RBA, setting out the Board’s updated central projections for underlying inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment over a multi-year horizon. These forecasts, presented in fan chart form, signal the Board’s expectations for the future path of the cash rate and are closely watched by economists, financial markets, and mortgage holders across Australia.
As of May 2026, the cash rate stands at 4.35%, following three consecutive hikes in the first half of the year. The Board has been responding to a re-acceleration of inflation driven by services price pressures, a tight labour market, and higher energy and food costs linked to the Middle East conflict. By November, the Board will have access to the September quarter CPI release (typically published in late October), providing the most timely and comprehensive read on underlying inflation before the decision.
What to Expect
The November meeting is the most data-rich decision point in the second half of 2026. The September quarter CPI, due in late October, will confirm whether underlying inflation is tracking back toward the RBA’s 2-3% target band. This data will be central to the November decision. If trimmed mean CPI falls meaningfully from second-quarter levels, the Board may signal that the hiking cycle has peaked and that the next move could be a cut. If it remains elevated, a further hike remains possible.
Labour market conditions will also be reviewed. The September quarter data, covering employment growth, participation rates, and the Wage Price Index, will be available before November and will inform the Board’s assessment of domestic inflationary pressures. Australia’s housing market, which is particularly sensitive to rate changes given the prevalence of variable-rate mortgages, will be a further consideration: several months of higher rates are already weighing on household consumption, and the Board must balance the risk of overtightening against the risk of entrenching inflation.
The global context will also feature prominently in the November deliberations. The US Federal Reserve’s October decision (29 October) and any signal from the Bank of England and ECB in September and October will provide important context for global monetary conditions heading into November. The Chinese economy remains a key risk factor: any deterioration in Chinese demand would affect Australian commodity exports and could reduce the need for further tightening.
Cash Rate Decision History
| Date | Decision | Rate | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Hike +25bp | 4.35% | 8-1 |
| March 2026 | Hike +25bp | 4.10% | Majority |
| February 2026 | Hike +25bp | 3.85% | Majority |
| November 2025 | Hold | 3.60% | Majority |
| September 2025 | Hold | 3.60% | Majority |
| August 2025 | Cut 25bp | 3.60% | Majority |
| May 2025 | Cut 25bp | 3.85% | Majority |
| February 2025 | Cut 25bp | 4.10% | Majority |
Market Impact Scenarios
- Hold at 4.35% with dovish SMP (most likely if inflation moderates) – If the September quarter CPI confirms a return toward the 2-3% band, the Board will likely hold rates and use the SMP to signal that the hiking cycle has ended. The Australian dollar would weaken modestly as markets price in future cuts. The ASX 200 would rally, particularly property, consumer discretionary, and financials. Short-dated government bond yields would fall on expectations of eventual easing in 2027.
- Hike 25bp to 4.60% with hawkish SMP – If underlying inflation remains elevated in the September quarter, the Board could deliver a fourth consecutive hike. AUD would strengthen. The ASX 200 would fall, with mortgage-sensitive sectors particularly affected. The Governor would use the SMP press conference to explain why further tightening is necessary despite signs of economic slowdown, citing the priority of returning inflation to the target band.
- Hold at 4.35% with neutral SMP – A middle case in which the Board holds rates but does not provide clear forward guidance in either direction. This would keep markets guessing about the December decision. AUD and ASX would be relatively unchanged, with the November SMP’s inflation fan chart and GDP projection providing the main market signal.
Statement on Monetary Policy and Press Conference
As a quarterly SMP meeting, the November announcement at 2:30 pm AEST is accompanied by the full Statement on Monetary Policy, which is published simultaneously on the RBA’s website. The SMP contains the Board’s baseline economic forecasts, analysis of recent domestic and international conditions, and a discussion of risks. The Governor will then hold a press conference at 3:30 pm AEST, presenting the key findings and taking questions from journalists.
The November SMP is particularly important as it provides the last full forecast update before year-end. Any significant revision to the Board’s trimmed mean inflation projection or GDP forecast will be taken as a signal for the December decision and beyond. If the SMP shows inflation returning to the 2-3% band within the forecast horizon, markets will price a pivot toward cuts. If it shows inflation remaining above target, a further hike or an extended pause is more likely.
Related Events
- FOMC Rate Decision October 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s October decision, providing the most recent US monetary policy signal ahead of the RBA’s November announcement.
- ECB Rate Decision October 2026 – The ECB’s October decision, part of the broader global central bank context heading into November.
- Bank of England MPC Rate Decision November 2026 – The BoE’s November decision on 5 November 2026, also a major quarterly forecast meeting, directly coinciding with the RBA’s announcement.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Statement on Monetary Policy and why does it matter?
The quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) is the RBA’s most comprehensive communication tool. Published four times a year alongside the February, May, August, and November rate decisions, it contains the Board’s updated forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment, as well as in-depth analysis of domestic and global economic conditions. The SMP’s central projections and fan charts are used by financial markets, economists, and policymakers to anticipate the future path of the cash rate.
When will the November 2026 RBA decision be announced?
The decision and Statement on Monetary Policy will be published at 2:30 pm AEST (3:30 am GMT) on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. The Governor’s press conference follows at 3:30 pm AEST.
What happens if the RBA hikes rates again at the November meeting?
A further hike to 4.60% in November would represent the fourth consecutive increase in the 2026 hiking cycle, taking the cash rate above the previous 2023 peak of 4.35%. This would add further pressure to household budgets, particularly for variable-rate mortgage holders, and would likely dampen consumer spending and housing market activity. The RBA would use the SMP to explain the rationale, citing the need to bring underlying inflation back within the 2-3% target band on a sustained basis.
Featured image: Photo by Fabian Mardi on Unsplash.