Bank of Canada Rate Decision October 2026
October 28 @ 9:45 am - 10:45 am
Bank of Canada Rate Decision October 2026
Next Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Wednesday, at 9:45 am ET (1:45 pm London).
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- Cut 50bp to 3.25% (December 11, 2024)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada Rate Decision.
Updated
The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council announces its October 2026 interest rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (1:45 pm London time). The decision follows a two-day deliberation and is released alongside a policy statement; at select meetings this is accompanied by the quarterly Monetary Policy Report and a press conference with Governor Tiff Macklem. Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada rate decision dates.
What is the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council and what does it decide?
The Governing Council is the Bank of Canada’s internal decision-making body. It sets the target for the overnight rate, the interest rate at which major financial institutions lend to one another overnight, which in turn influences mortgage rates, savings rates, business loans and the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar. The Bank’s mandate, agreed with the federal government, is to keep inflation near a 2% target within a 1% to 3% control range while supporting maximum sustainable employment.
Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada does not publish individual votes. Decisions are reached by consensus among the Governor, the Senior Deputy Governor and the Deputy Governors, and no dissent record is released. The Bank holds eight scheduled rate announcements a year, roughly every six weeks, on pre-announced Wednesdays.
When is the October Bank of Canada decision announced?
The rate statement is released at 9:45 am ET (1:45 pm London) on October 28, 2026. Bank of Canada meetings that include a Monetary Policy Report are followed by a press conference, typically around 10:30 am ET, where the Governor and Senior Deputy Governor take questions from reporters on the outlook for growth, inflation and the labour market. The Bank has confirmed its 2026 and 2027 announcement calendar, as set out in its own schedule of policy interest rate announcements. Because this preview is published well ahead of the meeting, readers should check the Bank of Canada’s website closer to the date for the confirmed rate entering the decision and for any published Monetary Policy Report projections.
What to expect
A consensus forecast for the October 28, 2026 decision has not yet been published. Economist surveys and market pricing for Bank of Canada meetings typically firm up in the one to two weeks before the announcement, drawing on data such as the Canadian Consumer Price Index, the Labour Force Survey and the Bank’s own Business Outlook Survey. Readers can expect Reuters and Bloomberg economist polls, along with overnight index swap pricing, to sharpen closer to the meeting date.
What is verifiable now is the Bank’s recent rate path through 2024, when it moved from a restrictive stance toward a more neutral one as inflation eased. The table below, drawn from the Bank of Canada’s own published key interest rate history, shows the last confirmed run of decisions available at the time of writing. Decisions made in 2025 and through to October 2026 should be checked directly against the Bank’s published history, since this preview is written well in advance of the meeting.
| Meeting | Decision | Rate after meeting |
|---|---|---|
| January 24, 2024 | Held | 5.00% |
| March 6, 2024 | Held | 5.00% |
| April 10, 2024 | Held | 5.00% |
| June 5, 2024 | Cut 25bp | 4.75% |
| July 24, 2024 | Cut 25bp | 4.50% |
| September 4, 2024 | Cut 25bp | 4.25% |
| October 23, 2024 | Cut 50bp | 3.75% |
| December 11, 2024 | Cut 50bp | 3.25% |
A basis point (bp) is one hundredth of a percentage point, so a 25bp move equals 0.25%. The sequence of cuts through 2024 reflected inflation returning toward the Bank’s 2% target after the sharp tightening cycle of 2022 and 2023.
Market impact scenarios
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Hold | Read by traders as the Bank signalling confidence that inflation and growth are broadly on track, according to typical desk commentary around unchanged decisions | Borrowing costs stay where they are for now, and the Bank is likely watching incoming data before its next move |
| Cut | Generally read as a sign the Bank is more worried about slowing growth or a softening labour market than about inflation, per standard market reaction patterns to easing moves | Cheaper borrowing over time for mortgages, car loans and business credit, though savings rates tend to fall too |
| Hike | Would be read as a signal that inflation risks have resurfaced and the Bank wants to cool demand, consistent with how markets reacted to the 2022 to 2023 tightening cycle | Higher borrowing costs but potentially better returns on savings accounts and fixed-income investments |
What will the statement and press conference signal?
Analysts typically focus on a handful of things in the Bank of Canada’s statement: the language used to describe inflation risks (whether price pressures are described as “easing”, “persistent” or “broadening”), any reference to the labour market and wage growth, and commentary on the Canadian dollar and export demand, which is heavily exposed to US trade policy and commodity prices. Because the Governing Council does not publish a vote split, there is no dissent count to watch in the way there is at the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England; instead, commentators look for changes in tone between one statement and the next.
If the meeting includes a Monetary Policy Report, watch for updated growth and inflation projections and any commentary on the Bank’s balance sheet, including its quantitative tightening programme, which affects how much government debt the Bank is holding and indirectly influences longer-term borrowing costs.
What It Means for Your Money
For Canadian mortgage holders, especially those with variable-rate mortgages or lines of credit, a cut lowers monthly payments while a hold or hike keeps costs where they are; those coming up for renewal watch these decisions closely because Canadian mortgages typically reset every few years rather than being fixed for the full term as in the United States. Savers holding high-interest savings accounts or GICs (guaranteed investment certificates) generally see lower returns after a cut and better returns after a hold or hike.
The decision also matters beyond Canada. A more dovish Bank of Canada, one leaning toward cuts, tends to weaken the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, the pound and the euro, which affects the cost of cross-border shopping, travel and imported goods. Because Canada’s economy is closely tied to US demand and commodity prices, and to a lesser extent to European and Asian trade flows, shifts in the Bank’s outlook are watched by global fixed-income and currency traders, not just domestic borrowers. Pension funds and equity investors also track the rate path because lower rates tend to support share prices and bond valuations, while higher rates can pressure both.
Related events
- The previous Bank of Canada rate decision provides the starting point for this meeting’s rate path.
- Canadian Consumer Price Index data released in the weeks before the meeting is one of the key inputs the Governing Council reviews.
- The Canadian Labour Force Survey, published monthly by Statistics Canada, feeds directly into the Bank’s assessment of the labour market and wage pressures.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Bank of Canada decision announced on October 28, 2026?
The statement is released at 9:45 am ET, which is 1:45 pm London time.
Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates in October 2026?
A consensus forecast has not yet been published this far ahead of the meeting; economist polls and market pricing typically firm up in the days before the announcement.
What is the Bank of Canada’s current policy rate?
The overnight rate stood at 3.25% after the Bank of Canada’s confirmed December 11, 2024 cut; readers should check the Bank’s own key interest rate history for decisions made since then, as this preview is written well ahead of the October 2026 meeting.
When is the next Bank of Canada meeting after October 2026?
The Bank of Canada publishes its full announcement calendar, including 2027 dates, on its own website.
Where can I watch the Bank of Canada announcement live?
The statement and any press conference are published on the Bank of Canada’s official website and carried live by major Canadian and international broadcasters.