China Official PMI January 2027
January 30, 2027 @ 8:30 pm - 9:30 pm
China Official PMI January 2027
Next China Official PMI: Sunday, at 9:30 am CST (8:30 pm ET, 1:30 am London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 50.1
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
Updated
The China Official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January 2027 is scheduled for release on January 31, 2027 at 9:30am China Standard Time, which is 8:30pm ET on January 30 and 1:30am in London on January 31. The data is compiled and published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), working with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, and it measures activity across China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing (services and construction) sectors for the month of January 2027. Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
Note on timing: the NBS has not yet confirmed this specific release date. The agency typically publishes the Official PMI on the last calendar day of the reference month (or the first business day after, when the last day falls on a weekend), so this page uses that standard pattern as its working estimate.
What is the China Official PMI?
The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a monthly survey of procurement managers at thousands of Chinese firms, asking whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and inventories rose, fell or stayed flat compared with the previous month. The responses are converted into a single diffusion index: a reading above 50 signals expansion in that part of the economy, a reading below 50 signals contraction, and 50 itself means no change.
The NBS publishes two headline numbers each month: the Manufacturing PMI, which tracks factory activity, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction. A Composite PMI, blending both, is also released. Because China is the world’s largest manufacturing exporter and a major buyer of commodities, these figures are watched closely in markets well beyond its borders, including by investors pricing demand for oil, metals and shipping, and by companies in Europe, the United States and the rest of Asia that sell into or source from Chinese supply chains.
Unlike private-sector PMIs compiled by S&P Global (often reported under the RatingDog or Caixin banner in China), the Official PMI leans more heavily on larger, state-owned enterprises, so the two series can diverge, particularly around policy stimulus or seasonal effects such as the Lunar New Year holiday, which often distorts the January and February readings.
When is the January 2027 PMI released?
The release is expected at 9:30am local time in Beijing on January 31, 2027, published directly on the NBS website and distributed through state media and financial data terminals. As noted above, the NBS has not formally confirmed this date at the time of writing, and the agency’s standard practice is to publish on the final day of the reference month.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of publication, no consensus forecast for the January 2027 Official PMI has been compiled, since economist surveys for this release typically appear only in the days immediately before publication. A consensus forecast has not yet been published.
The most recent confirmed official reading available shows the Manufacturing PMI at 50.1, up from 49.2 the previous month, beating the 49.2 figure forecast by economists polled by Reuters, according to CNBC. The Non-Manufacturing PMI in that same release stood at 50.2, up from 49.5, and the Composite PMI rose to 50.7 from 49.7.
| Measure | Prior month | Latest confirmed reading |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| Non-Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | 50.2 |
| Composite PMI | 49.7 | 50.7 |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Seen as a sign of firmer demand, potentially supportive of commodity prices and Asia-linked equities, though analysts caution Lunar New Year timing can distort January figures | Factories and service firms report more orders and output than expected, suggesting China’s economy is holding up better than feared |
| In line with expectations | Limited market reaction, as traders treat the print as confirming the existing trend rather than changing it | Activity is growing or shrinking roughly as already priced in, so little changes for policy or investment views |
| Below consensus | Could revive expectations of further stimulus from Beijing, such as rate cuts or infrastructure spending, and may weigh on the yuan and commodity-linked currencies | Weaker-than-expected factory or services activity points to softer domestic demand, raising concern about the pace of China’s recovery |
These are possibilities based on how markets have historically reacted to PMI surprises, not predictions of what will happen in January 2027.
Why does this release matter right now?
China’s PMI has oscillated around the 50 breakeven line through much of the recent cycle, with manufacturing activity dipping below 50 for several months before improving. The December 2025 reading marked the first manufacturing expansion since March that year, according to CNBC, while a separate private survey later showed factory activity contracting again in November, as CNBC reported soft domestic demand continuing to weigh on the economy. This back-and-forth between official and private surveys illustrates why both the headline number and its direction of travel matter to investors trying to judge whether Beijing’s stimulus measures are gaining traction.
Policymakers, including the People’s Bank of China, use the PMI alongside trade, credit and property data to judge whether additional support is needed. A run of weak prints typically raises the odds of further monetary easing or fiscal spending, while a sustained run above 50 can ease pressure to act.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and rates: a weak China PMI can push global bond yields lower as investors seek safer assets, which sometimes feeds through to slightly cheaper fixed-rate mortgage pricing in the UK, US and eurozone, though the link is indirect.
- Jobs and wages: companies in Germany, South Korea, Japan and other economies that export heavily to China can see order books affected by Chinese demand trends, which over time can influence hiring and overtime in those sectors.
- Prices: stronger Chinese manufacturing activity tends to support demand for oil, copper and other industrial commodities, which can feed into fuel and goods prices for consumers worldwide; weaker activity tends to ease those pressures.
- Investments and pensions: many pension funds and tracker funds hold exposure to commodity producers, miners and Asia-focused equities, so swings in China’s PMI can move the value of these holdings.
- Currencies: a soft PMI print can weigh on the Chinese yuan and on commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar, while also feeding into broader dollar, pound and euro trading as investors reassess global growth prospects.
Related events
- Previous release: China Official PMI, December 2026
- China’s private-sector manufacturing PMI (RatingDog/S&P Global), published a day or two after the official figure
- China trade balance and credit data, which are published separately but watched alongside PMI for a fuller picture of the economy
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the China Official PMI released?
It is expected at 9:30am China Standard Time, which is 8:30pm ET the evening before and 1:30am in London, though the exact January 2027 date has not been formally confirmed by the NBS.
How do I read the PMI number?
Any reading above 50 signals expansion in that sector compared with the previous month, a reading below 50 signals contraction, and readings near 50 suggest little change.
How does this release affect interest rates?
Weak PMI readings can increase expectations of stimulus or rate cuts from the People’s Bank of China, while also influencing global bond yields and, indirectly, mortgage pricing elsewhere.
Where can I find the official release?
The NBS publishes the data directly on its website, with an English-language version typically following shortly after the Chinese release.
When is the next PMI release?
The NBS publishes the Official PMI monthly, generally on the last day of each reference month, so the February 2027 release would be expected roughly a month after this one.