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China Official PMI August 2026
August 30 @ 9:30 pm - 10:30 pm
China Official PMI August 2026
Next China Official PMI: Monday, at 9:30 am CST (9:30 pm ET, 2:30 am London).
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- Manufacturing 49.2 / Non-Manufacturi…
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
Updated
China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August 2026 is due for release on Monday, August 31, 2026 at 9:30 am China Standard Time, which is 9:30 pm ET on Sunday, August 30 in the United States and 2:30 am on August 31 in London. The data is compiled and published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and covers manufacturing and non-manufacturing (services and construction) activity during August 2026. Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
What is the China Official PMI?
The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey-based gauge of business conditions. Each month, NBS asks purchasing managers at a large panel of Chinese companies whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and inventories rose, fell or stayed the same compared with the previous month. The answers are combined into a single index. A reading above 50 signals expansion versus the prior month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.
NBS publishes two separate headline indices: the Manufacturing PMI, which tracks factory activity, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction. A composite output index blends both. Because China is the world’s largest exporter and a major buyer of industrial commodities, its PMI is watched closely by traders in metals, energy and currency markets, as well as by companies that supply or buy from Chinese factories.
The survey is one of the earliest hard signals each month on how China’s economy is performing, arriving before trade, retail sales or investment data. Central banks, including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, monitor it as an early read on global demand, given how much of world trade flows through China.
When is the August PMI released?
NBS is scheduled to release the August 2026 PMI on Monday, August 31, 2026 at 9:30 am local time in Beijing, which corresponds to 9:30 pm ET (Sunday) and 2:30 am London time (Monday). The release is published on the NBS website and typically appears within seconds via wire services such as Reuters and Bloomberg, given the market sensitivity of the number.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of publication, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 reading has not yet been published. Economists typically submit forecasts to Reuters and Bloomberg surveys in the days immediately before the release, so a median estimate should appear closer to August 31, 2026.
The most recent published figures are for July 2026. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June, missing the median forecast of 50.0 in a Reuters poll of economists, according to CNBC. The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June, according to FocusEconomics.
| Measure | Prior (July 2026) | Consensus (August 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | Not yet published |
| Non-Manufacturing PMI | 49.0 | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus (or a return above 50) | Read as a sign that stimulus measures and export demand are stabilising activity, which could support the Chinese yuan and Asian equities and ease pressure on commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar | Factories and service firms report more new orders than the month before, suggesting the economy is regaining momentum |
| In line with consensus | Likely to have a muted market reaction, since the outcome would confirm existing expectations of a soft but not deteriorating economy | Business conditions are roughly unchanged from expectations, with no fresh surprise for policymakers or investors |
| Below consensus (further into contraction) | Could add to expectations that Beijing will need further monetary or fiscal support, a scenario analysts have flagged after the July slump, and may weigh on commodity prices and risk sentiment in Asian and European markets | Fewer new orders and weaker output suggest the slowdown seen in July has deepened |
Why does this release matter right now?
The July 2026 data marked a sharp reversal, with both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices falling back below the 50 threshold after several months near or above it. CNBC reported that the manufacturing miss was linked to a “demand slump” and disruption from typhoons affecting production and logistics. The Shanghai Metals Market noted the composite PMI output index fell to 49.3 in July from 50.6 in June, describing an overall slowdown in business activity across sectors.
Because the slide followed months of relative stability, the August print is being watched to see whether July was a temporary weather-driven dip or the start of a more sustained downturn. A weak reading would likely sharpen calls, already voiced after the July data, for additional stimulus from Beijing, while a rebound would ease concerns about a broader loss of momentum in the world’s second-largest economy.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and rates: Weak Chinese data can lower expectations for global growth and inflation, which sometimes pulls down government bond yields worldwide, indirectly affecting mortgage pricing in the UK, Europe and the US.
- Savings: If the data feeds into expectations of slower global growth, central banks may lean towards holding or cutting interest rates, which can mean lower returns on cash savings over time.
- Jobs and wages: Companies that export machinery, commodities or components to China, from German carmakers to Australian miners, can see demand shift with these figures, which over time can affect hiring and wage growth in those sectors.
- Prices: Weaker Chinese factory activity can reduce demand for industrial commodities such as copper and oil, which sometimes feeds through to lower prices at the pump or for raw materials used in manufactured goods.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: Chinese PMI surprises can move Asian and commodity-linked stock markets, the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and the offshore yuan, all of which can affect pension funds and investment portfolios with exposure to Asia or emerging markets.
Related events
- Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, a separate private-sector survey focused more on smaller, export-oriented firms, usually released a day or two after the official figures.
- China trade data (exports and imports), typically published in the second week of the following month.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI, released on the first business day of the month, often close to the China PMI release date.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the China Official PMI released?
The August 2026 release is due at 9:30 am China Standard Time on August 31, 2026, which is 9:30 pm ET the previous evening and 2:30 am in London.
How should I read the PMI number?
A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The distance from 50 reflects the strength of the change, not an absolute growth rate.
Does the China PMI affect UK or US interest rates?
Not directly, since it is a Chinese domestic data release, but it feeds into the global growth outlook that the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank weigh when setting policy, particularly through its effect on trade, commodity prices and financial market sentiment.
Where can I find the official release?
The data is published on the National Bureau of Statistics of China website, with the July 2026 release available at stats.gov.cn.
When is the next China Official PMI released?
NBS typically publishes the PMI on the last calendar day of each month, so the September 2026 reading is expected around September 30, 2026.