At a Glance

What Is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey?

The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers is a monthly survey of approximately 600 US adults that has tracked consumer attitudes since 1946. Published by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan, the survey measures how Americans feel about their personal financial situations, buying conditions for major items, and expectations for the broader economy over the next one and five years. The index is benchmarked to 1966 as 100, with readings above 80 historically associated with a confident consumer environment and readings below 60 indicating significant pessimism.

The survey produces a headline Index of Consumer Sentiment, as well as sub-indices for current economic conditions and consumer expectations. It also reports one-year and five-to-ten year ahead inflation expectations, which the Federal Reserve (the Fed) monitors carefully as a gauge of whether price expectations are becoming entrenched. The University of Michigan releases a preliminary estimate mid-month and a final reading on the last Friday of the month, with the August 28 release representing the final figure for the August 2026 survey period.

Consumer Sentiment Release: August 28, 2026

The August 28 final reading will provide a definitive picture of consumer confidence for August 2026. The most recent confirmed data point is May 2026 at 44.8, which represented a record low in the survey’s history. The June and July 2026 final readings (released June 27 and July 31 respectively) will have established the recent trend prior to this August release. By the time August 28 arrives, the preliminary August reading (released around August 14) will give markets an early indication of whether the record-low sentiment environment has begun to stabilise or deteriorate further. No formal consensus estimate for August 2026 is available at time of writing.

The August 28 release arrives on the second day of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026, which runs from August 27 to 29. This timing creates an unusual coincidence: Federal Reserve Chair and senior central bankers will be actively discussing the economic outlook in Wyoming while the University of Michigan publishes its latest consumer confidence reading in Ann Arbor. A reading that diverges sharply from the July data could influence the tone and content of discussions at Jackson Hole, even though the data arrives after the symposium has begun.

Why This Release Matters

Consumer sentiment has been one of the most prominent economic weak spots of 2026. The record low of 44.8 in May 2026 reflects the combination of tariff-driven goods price inflation, elevated energy costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and a broader loss of economic confidence that has affected households across the income spectrum. For policymakers, the critical distinction is between sentiment that is weak because of temporary price shocks (which may self-correct) and sentiment that reflects genuine expectations of prolonged economic deterioration (which is more concerning from a self-fulfilling prophecy perspective).

The August 28 data will be read against a backdrop shaped by the summer earnings season. If major retailers (including Walmart, which reports on August 20) have signalled continued robust consumer spending despite low confidence, it could suggest that the confidence decline is not translating directly into reduced activity. However, if spending data and earnings have also been disappointing, the confluence of low confidence and weak spending would present a more worrying picture for the economic outlook heading into Q4 2026.

For the Fed, consumer inflation expectations embedded in the sentiment survey remain a key signal. If one-year ahead inflation expectations in August remain above 5%, it will suggest that consumers anticipate continued tariff-driven price increases, complicating the Fed’s ability to justify rate cuts without appearing to accommodate elevated price expectations. A fall in inflation expectations alongside a potential sentiment recovery would create more room for monetary policy easing.

What to Watch For

• Sentiment above 50 (recovery into positive territory): A return above 50 would break the below-50 run of spring and early summer 2026 and signal that consumer pessimism may be bottoming. This would be interpreted positively by consumer-facing equities and would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates as a confidence-boosting measure.
• Sentiment between 44 and 50 (stabilisation at depressed levels): A broadly unchanged reading, while still historically very low, would confirm that confidence has found a floor at current levels. Markets have likely priced in weak confidence, so stability would be treated as neutral to mildly positive.
• Sentiment below 44 (new record low): A further decline would intensify recession concern and increase pressure on the Fed to signal easing. Consumer discretionary equities would face additional selling pressure, defensive sectors would outperform, and bond markets would likely rally on increased safe-haven demand.

Historical Context

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Final monthly readings. Index benchmarked to 1966=100.

Market Positioning

The August 28 release coincides with the Jackson Hole symposium, creating heightened market sensitivity to the consumer confidence reading. Fixed income markets will be particularly attentive to the inflation expectations components: any deterioration in expectations at the same time as Fed Chair signals are being parsed from Wyoming would create a complex cross-asset reaction. Options markets may have elevated implied volatility around August 28 due to the Jackson Hole coincidence, amplifying price moves in either direction. The consumer discretionary sector and large retailers will be most directly sensitive to the headline sentiment figure.

Related Events

• US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment July 2026 – The July 31 final reading establishes the prior monthly trend before this August release.
• Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – Running August 27-29, the symposium coincides directly with this release, creating unusual policy and data confluence.
• US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026 – Released August 26, two days before this sentiment reading, providing the spending and income counterpart to the survey-based confidence data.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index?

The Index of Consumer Sentiment is the headline output from the University of Michigan’s monthly Surveys of Consumers. The index is calculated from five questions covering personal finances (current and expected), business conditions (short and long-term), and buying conditions for large household durables. It is benchmarked to 1966=100, with readings above 80 indicating confidence and readings below 60 reflecting notable pessimism. At 44.8 in May 2026, the index was at a record low, surpassing the previous lows from 2008-2009 and 2022.

When is the final August 2026 consumer sentiment reading released?

The University of Michigan will release the final August 2026 Surveys of Consumers reading on Friday, August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. The preliminary reading for August 2026 will be published approximately two weeks earlier, around August 14. The August 28 final reading supersedes the preliminary and is the figure used in official economic analyses.

How does consumer sentiment affect Federal Reserve policy?

The Fed does not respond mechanically to consumer sentiment surveys, but the data informs its assessment of household sector health and inflation expectations. Particularly important are the one-year and five-to-ten year ahead inflation expectations sub-components: if consumers expect inflation to remain persistently elevated, wage demands and pricing decisions may reinforce that expectation, making it harder for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation target. A deterioration in confidence readings alongside elevated inflation expectations would present a difficult trade-off between supporting growth and controlling price pressures.