China Official PMI December 2026
December 30 @ 8:30 pm - 9:30 pm
China Official PMI December 2026
Next China Official PMI: Thursday, at 9:30 am CST (8:30 pm ET, 1:30 am London).
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- Manufacturing PMI around 49 to 50 in…
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
Updated
China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December 2026 is scheduled for release on December 31, 2026 at 9:30 am China Standard Time, which is 8:30 pm ET on December 31 and 1:30 am London time on January 1, 2027. The figures come from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), working with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), and cover business activity during December 2026. Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
What is the China Official PMI?
The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a monthly survey of factory and service-sector managers, asking whether output, new orders, employment, prices and stock levels rose, fell or stayed the same compared with the previous month. The responses are combined into a single index. A reading above 50 signals expansion versus the prior month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is one of the earliest indicators available each month for the world’s second-largest economy, published just as the reference month ends.
The NBS survey is split into a manufacturing index and a non-manufacturing (services and construction) index, which are then blended into a composite figure. Because the sample leans towards larger, state-linked firms, it is often read alongside the privately compiled RatingDog (formerly Caixin) PMI, which focuses more on smaller, export-facing manufacturers.
Investors, central banks and companies with China exposure watch the release closely because it is a timely gauge of demand in a country that supplies much of the world’s manufactured goods and consumes a large share of global commodities. Movements in the index can move currency markets, commodity prices and shares of companies that trade heavily with China, from German carmakers to Australian miners.
When is the December PMI released?
The NBS publishes the December 2026 reading on December 31, 2026 at 9:30 am local time in Beijing (8:30 pm ET, 1:30 am London the following day). The release is posted on the NBS website, with an English-language version typically following within a few days. Because December is the final month of the calendar year, this print also closes out the annual run of manufacturing and services data for 2026.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the December 2026 China Official PMI has not yet been published. Economist surveys for this release, typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg, are usually finalised only in the days immediately before the print, so readers should check back closer to December 31, 2026 for an updated median forecast.
The most recent confirmed NBS readings available show the manufacturing PMI at 49.2 for November 2025 and 50.1 for December 2025, according to the official NBS release. Later prints in early 2026 showed the index easing again, with the manufacturing index at 49.3 in January 2026 and 49.0 in February 2026, according to Trading Economics’ summary of NBS data. These figures illustrate the recent pattern of readings hovering close to the 50 no-change line rather than a confirmed prior for December 2026, which will depend on the November 2026 release.
| Measure | Recent prior print | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | Around 49 to 50 in late 2025 and early 2026 prints (NBS) | Not yet published |
| Non-manufacturing PMI | Typically in the low 50s in recent prints (NBS) | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Possible support for the Chinese yuan and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar, alongside a lift for Asian equities | Chinese factories and services firms grew faster than expected, suggesting demand at home and abroad is holding up better than feared |
| In line with consensus | Muted reaction, since the number confirms what traders had already priced in | The economy is behaving broadly as expected, offering little new signal for policymakers or investors |
| Below consensus | Possible pressure on the yuan and on commodity prices, with analysts at ABN AMRO and other banks noting weak PMIs tend to fuel expectations of further Chinese stimulus | Activity is slowing more than expected, which could reduce demand for imported goods and raw materials from trading partners |
These are possible reactions described by economists and market commentators, not predictions of how markets will actually move.
Why does this release matter right now?
China’s manufacturing PMI has spent an extended run below the 50 expansion threshold through much of 2025 and into 2026, according to NBS data compiled by Trading Economics, reflecting persistently weak domestic demand and intense price competition among factories. Analysts at ABN AMRO have noted that soft PMI prints of this kind tend to reinforce expectations that Beijing will lean further on fiscal and monetary support to safeguard growth.
Because the December print also marks the final data point of the year, it is often used by economists to judge whether stimulus measures rolled out earlier in 2026 succeeded in stabilising activity, and it feeds directly into forecasts for China’s full-year GDP growth, due separately from the National Bureau of Statistics.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and rates: Weak Chinese data can add to global growth worries, which sometimes pushes bond yields lower and can feed through to mortgage pricing in the UK, US and eurozone, though the link is indirect and central bank decisions matter far more.
- Savings: A slowing China has limited direct effect on domestic savings rates, but it can influence central bank thinking on inflation and growth, which in turn shapes interest rate paths that determine savings account returns.
- Jobs and wages: Manufacturers and exporters in Europe, the UK and Asia that sell into or compete with China can see hiring plans shift if Chinese demand weakens or strengthens sharply.
- Prices: Chinese factory activity affects the price of goods from electronics to clothing, and a pickup in Chinese manufacturing can also lift demand for industrial commodities, feeding into prices at the petrol pump or in construction materials.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: Funds and pensions with exposure to Chinese equities, Asian markets or commodity producers can see short-term price swings around the release, while a weaker yuan following a soft PMI can make Chinese exports cheaper, affecting competing manufacturers in the eurozone and elsewhere.
Related events
- China Official PMI, November 2026
- China Official PMI, January 2027 (next scheduled release, date to be confirmed by the NBS)
- China RatingDog (Caixin) Manufacturing PMI, a related private-sector survey often released alongside the official figures
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the December 2026 China Official PMI released?
It is released at 9:30 am China Standard Time on December 31, 2026, which is 8:30 pm ET the same day and 1:30 am London time on January 1, 2027.
How do I read the PMI figure?
A reading above 50 means activity expanded compared with the previous month, a reading below 50 means it contracted, and the further from 50, the stronger the signal.
Does the China PMI affect UK and US interest rates?
Not directly, but weaker or stronger Chinese activity feeds into global growth and inflation expectations that central banks such as the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve weigh when setting policy.
Where can I find the official release?
The National Bureau of Statistics of China publishes the data on its official website, with an English translation usually following shortly afterwards.
When is the next China Official PMI release?
The next release covers January 2027 data and is expected around the first day of February 2027, following the NBS’s usual end-of-month publication pattern, though the exact date should be confirmed nearer the time.