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China Caixin Manufacturing PMI September 2026
August 31 @ 9:45 pm - 10:45 pm
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI September 2026
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 51.5 (August 2026), up from 50.9 in July (Tuesday, at 9:45 am CST (9:45 pm ET, 2:45 am London)).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.
- Actual
- 51.5
Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Updated
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August 2026, up from 50.9 in July and above the 51.0 median forecast in a Reuters poll, according to data published by S&P Global and Caixin Media on September 1, 2026.
The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 is due on Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 9:45 am China Standard Time, which is 9:45 pm ET on September 1 in the United States and 2:45 am in London on September 1. The survey is compiled by S&P Global and published under license for Caixin Media. It covers manufacturing activity in China during August 2026. Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
What is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI?
The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is a monthly survey of around 500 purchasing managers at small and medium-sized manufacturing firms across China. Each manager is asked whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchased goods have risen, fallen or stayed the same compared with the previous month. The answers are combined into a single index number.
A reading above 50 signals that manufacturing activity is expanding compared with the previous month. A reading below 50 signals contraction. The distance from 50 indicates the pace of change, so a jump from 50.9 to 52.0 suggests a meaningfully quicker expansion, not just a continuation of growth.
Markets watch this release closely because China is the world’s largest manufacturing economy and a key supplier of goods to Europe, the United States and the rest of Asia. Unlike the official government PMI, which leans towards large, state-linked firms, the Caixin survey is weighted towards smaller, export-oriented, privately owned businesses. That makes it a useful gauge of how China’s private sector, rather than state industry, is faring, and it often moves markets in Hong Kong, Australia, Japan and commodity-exporting economies such as Brazil and South Africa.
When is the August Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The release is scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 9:45 am China Standard Time (9:45 pm ET on September 1, 2:45 am in London on September 1). The data is published on the S&P Global PMI release calendar and distributed to subscribers and financial news wires simultaneously. As with most PMI series, the exact date has not yet been confirmed by the publisher for this specific month at the time of writing. S&P Global typically releases the manufacturing PMI on the first business day of the month following the survey period, so September 1 is the expected date based on that established pattern.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the August 2026 reading has not yet been published. Economist polls for PMI releases are typically compiled by wire services in the days immediately before publication, so a median forecast is unlikely to appear until closer to September 1, 2026.
The most recent published reading, for July 2026, came in at 50.9, easing from 51.7 in June 2026, according to reporting on the release. That July figure was also below the median forecast of 51.5 in polling ahead of the release, and it marked an eighth consecutive month in expansion territory.
| Measure | Prior (June 2026) | Latest published (July 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Headline Manufacturing PMI | 51.7 | 50.9 |
| New export orders | Growth reported | Returned to growth |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus / prior | Read as a sign of resilient factory demand, potentially supporting Asian equities and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar | Chinese factories are getting more orders than expected, which could feed through to global supply chains and export prices |
| In line with prior trend | Limited market reaction, seen as confirmation that the recent gradual slowdown from 51.7 to 50.9 is continuing rather than reversing | Growth continues but at a similar, more modest pace, with no fresh surprise for investors |
| Below consensus / prior | Could be read as a warning sign for global demand and may weigh on risk assets tied to China, including mining and shipping stocks | Chinese manufacturers are seeing fewer new orders, which can signal softer demand both at home and from overseas buyers |
These are possible market reactions described by analysts, not predictions of what will happen on the day.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Caixin PMI has stayed above the 50 expansion threshold for eight straight months through July 2026, according to reporting on the release, even as the headline figure has eased from 51.7 in June to 50.9 in July. New export orders returned to growth in the July reading, a detail analysts watch closely given ongoing trade tensions and tariff uncertainty between China, the United States and Europe.
Chinese policymakers use PMI data alongside other indicators when calibrating stimulus measures, and a run of weaker prints can increase pressure for additional fiscal or monetary support. Investors in Europe and the United States watch the series for early signs of changing demand for industrial inputs, semiconductors and consumer electronics, given China’s role in global supply chains.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and borrowing costs: a weaker Chinese PMI can push global bond yields lower as investors seek safety, which sometimes feeds through to mortgage pricing in the UK, US and eurozone, though the link is indirect and takes time.
Savings: most retail savings rates are set by domestic central bank policy rather than Chinese data directly, but sustained weakness in China can add to the case for rate cuts elsewhere if it slows global growth.
Jobs and wages: workers in export-heavy sectors, from German car parts suppliers to Australian miners, are more exposed to Chinese manufacturing demand than most other employees.
Prices: a stronger reading can support commodity and shipping costs, which can filter into the price of goods on shelves in the UK, Europe and the US.
Investments, pensions and currencies: Asian equity markets, mining shares and currencies such as the Australian dollar and Chinese yuan tend to be the most sensitive to this release, and pension funds with exposure to Asian or commodity funds may see short-term price moves.
Related events
- China’s official (NBS) Manufacturing PMI, typically released a day or two before the Caixin figure
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI, usually released on the first business day of the month
- Eurozone and UK manufacturing PMI releases from S&P Global, published around the same time each month
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The release is scheduled for 9:45 am China Standard Time on September 1, 2026, which is 9:45 pm ET on September 1 and 2:45 am in London on September 1.
How do I read the Caixin PMI number?
A figure above 50 means manufacturing activity expanded from the previous month, while a figure below 50 means it contracted, with the distance from 50 indicating the pace of change.
Does the Caixin PMI affect UK and US interest rates?
Not directly, since UK and US rates are set by the Bank of England and Federal Reserve based on domestic conditions, but persistent weakness in Chinese manufacturing can influence global growth expectations that feed into those decisions.
Where is the official Caixin PMI release published?
The data is published by S&P Global on its PMI release calendar and distributed to subscribers and financial media at the time of release.
When is the next Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The following month’s reading, covering September 2026 activity, is expected around the first business day of October 2026, following the usual release pattern.
Results: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, August 2026
| Measure | Consensus | Actual | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August 2026) | 51.0 | 51.5 | 50.9 (July 2026) |
The headline index rose to 51.5 in August 2026, extending its run above the 50 expansion threshold and beating the 51.0 median forecast from economists polled by Reuters ahead of the release. The reading marked an acceleration from July’s 50.9, which had itself been a four-month low. Output and new orders both strengthened during the month, with new export orders recording their fastest rise in around six months, according to S&P Global’s survey commentary reported by IndexBox.
The pickup landed closer to the “above consensus” scenario flagged in the preview, with firms reporting improved business confidence and steady hiring after gains in June and July. Order backlogs grew at their fastest pace since March 2026 and finished goods inventories rose at their quickest rate since September 2025, pointing to firms building stock in anticipation of continued demand rather than a one-off surge, according to RTTNews’ report on the release.
The private-sector Caixin gauge diverged from the official NBS manufacturing PMI, which stayed in contraction at 49.8 for August, underlining the gap between larger, state-linked firms and the smaller, export-oriented companies the Caixin survey samples.
Market Reaction
A stronger-than-expected private-sector PMI is generally read by analysts as a supportive signal for risk sentiment tied to China, including Asian equities, industrial commodities and currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan, given the survey’s tilt towards export-facing manufacturers. Detailed intraday moves in specific indices or currency pairs directly attributable to this release were not available from the sources checked at the time of writing.
The divergence between the expanding Caixin reading and the contracting official NBS PMI is likely to keep investors focused on which measure better reflects underlying momentum in China’s economy, particularly for sectors exposed to the private, export-led side of manufacturing rather than large state-linked producers.
What this means for your money now
The outlook is broadly unchanged for most household finances outside China. The pickup in the Caixin PMI is a modestly encouraging signal for global manufacturing demand and supply chains, but it is unlikely on its own to shift mortgage rates, savings rates or major currency levels in the UK, US or eurozone. Investors with exposure to Asian equities, mining shares or commodity-linked currencies may see it as one data point supporting the case that China’s export sector is holding up better than the contracting official PMI suggests.