UK Retail Sales October 2026
October 23 @ 2:00 am - 3:00 am
UK Retail Sales October 2026
Next UK Retail Sales: Friday, at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London). Covers September 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- Not yet confirmed
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: UK Retail Sales.
Updated
The UK Retail Sales report for September 2026 data is scheduled for release on October 23, 2026 at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET) by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The report covers retail sales volumes and values for September 2026. Full schedule and background: UK Retail Sales.
What is UK Retail Sales?
UK Retail Sales measures the value and volume of goods sold by retailers across Great Britain, covering categories such as food stores, non-food stores (clothing, household goods, department stores), fuel and non-store retailing (mostly online). The ONS collects data from a sample of retailers each month and adjusts for inflation to produce a “volume” figure, which strips out price changes and shows the actual quantity of goods bought, alongside a “value” figure that includes price effects.
The headline figure most closely watched is the month-on-month change in sales volumes, excluding fuel, because fuel prices can distort the picture. Markets also watch the year-on-year comparison to judge the underlying trend in household spending.
Retail sales matter because consumer spending makes up around 60% of UK gross domestic product. A strong or weak reading can shift expectations for Bank of England interest rate decisions, sterling’s value against the dollar and euro, and the outlook for retailers listed on the London Stock Exchange.
Beyond the headline figures, the ONS breaks down retail sales by sector, including food stores, department stores, clothing retailers, household goods stores, and non-store retailing such as online shopping. Analysts often look beneath the headline number to see whether growth or weakness is concentrated in a single sector, such as fuel stations reacting to petrol price swings, or spread more broadly across the high street. This detail helps distinguish a genuine change in household spending habits from a temporary distortion.
When is the September 2026 Retail Sales report released?
The ONS will publish the report at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET) on Friday, October 23, 2026, on the ONS release calendar. This is the standard monthly schedule the ONS follows, typically publishing retail sales data around three weeks after the end of the reference month.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the September 2026 UK Retail Sales report has not yet been published. Economists’ forecasts from Reuters and Bloomberg polls typically appear only in the days immediately before the release. The most recent published prior reading was also not confirmed at the time of writing, as this report covers a period some months ahead of the current data. Readers should check the ONS release calendar or a live poll closer to the release date for the latest prior figure and consensus.
| Measure | Prior | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Retail sales volumes, month-on-month | Not yet confirmed | Not yet published |
| Retail sales volumes excluding fuel, month-on-month | Not yet confirmed | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Could be read as a sign of resilient consumer demand, potentially reducing expectations of near-term Bank of England rate cuts | Shoppers spent more than expected, which can support retailer earnings but may also keep inflation pressure elevated |
| In line | Likely to have limited market impact, with focus shifting to other data such as wages or inflation | Spending matched expectations, so the picture for households and the economy stays broadly unchanged |
| Below consensus | May be interpreted as a sign of a weakening consumer, supporting the case for looser monetary policy | Households cut back on spending, which can signal strain on budgets from high prices or borrowing costs |
These are possibilities discussed by analysts and economists, not predictions of the actual outcome.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee monitors consumer spending closely as part of its assessment of demand pressures in the economy when setting interest rates. Retail sales data feeds into the broader picture of household finances, alongside wage growth, inflation and consumer confidence surveys. Any shift in the trend of spending, whether households are pulling back or continuing to spend despite cost pressures, can influence how policymakers judge the balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation according to ONS release notes.
Retailers, investors in UK consumer-facing shares and currency traders watching sterling all use this data point to judge the health of the UK high street and online retail sector heading into the final quarter of the year.
International readers should note that UK retail spending trends can also affect European exporters who sell goods into the UK market, and can factor into how global asset managers weigh sterling-denominated assets against the dollar and euro. A weaker UK consumer can dent demand for imported goods, while a resilient one can support both domestic and overseas retailers with UK exposure.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and rates: Weak retail sales can support the case for lower Bank of England interest rates, which may eventually feed through to cheaper mortgage deals, while strong sales can have the opposite effect.
- Savings: If rate cut expectations grow following weak spending data, savings account returns could edge lower over time; strong spending may support current rates for longer.
- Jobs and wages: Retail is one of the UK’s largest employers. Sustained weak sales can eventually affect hiring and pay decisions in the sector.
- Prices: Retail sales values (not adjusted for inflation) can hint at whether shops are passing on cost increases to customers, which matters for the broader cost of living.
- Investments, pensions and the pound: UK retailer shares and funds tracking the FTSE 250 often react to this data. Sterling can also move against the dollar and euro if the report changes expectations for Bank of England policy, which matters for anyone holding overseas investments or planning travel.
Related events
- Previous release: UK Retail Sales, September 2026 report
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (watch the calendar for the next scheduled meeting)
- UK Consumer Price Index inflation report, published separately by the ONS
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the UK Retail Sales report released?
The ONS publishes the report at 7:00 am London time, which is 2:00 am ET on the day of release.
How do I read the headline retail sales figure?
Focus on the month-on-month change in sales volumes excluding fuel, which strips out price effects and one-off fuel price swings to show the underlying trend in consumer spending.
How does this report affect interest rates?
The Bank of England considers consumer spending data as part of its assessment of demand in the economy, which feeds into its interest rate decisions alongside inflation and wage data.
Where can I find the official release?
The report is published on the ONS release calendar at ons.gov.uk.
When is the next UK Retail Sales report?
The ONS publishes retail sales data monthly, typically around three weeks after the end of the reference month. Check the ONS release calendar for the exact date of the following report.