UK Labour Market Report February 2027
February 16, 2027 @ 2:00 am - 3:00 am
UK Labour Market Report February 2027
Next UK Labour Market Report: Tuesday, at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- Unemployment rate 4.9%
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: UK Labour Market Report.
Updated
The UK Labour Market Report for February 2027 is a monthly release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) covering employment, unemployment, economic inactivity, average earnings and vacancies across the UK. The ONS has not yet confirmed the exact publication date on its release calendar, but based on its usual monthly pattern the report is expected around February 16, 2027 at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET). Full background and the schedule of past and future editions is available on the UK Labour Market Report hub page.
What is the UK Labour Market Report?
The Labour Market Report, published monthly by the ONS, is the UK’s main official snapshot of the jobs market. It combines data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a household survey of around 40,000 people, with administrative data from HM Revenue and Customs’ Pay As You Earn (PAYE) real-time information system and the Claimant Count, which tracks people claiming unemployment-related benefits.
The headline figures are the unemployment rate (the share of economically active people without a job but looking for one), the employment rate (the share of working-age people in paid work), and average weekly earnings growth, both including and excluding bonuses. A separate measure, economic inactivity, captures people who are neither working nor actively seeking work, for example due to long-term sickness, caring responsibilities or early retirement.
Markets watch this release closely because the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses labour market slack and wage growth as key inputs when setting interest rates. Weak jobs figures and slowing pay growth tend to support the case for interest rate cuts, while a tight labour market with strong wage growth can keep inflation pressures elevated and push the Bank towards a more cautious stance.
When is the February Labour Market Report released?
The ONS has not yet published the confirmed release date for the February 2027 edition. ONS labour market bulletins are typically published monthly, usually on a Tuesday roughly six to seven weeks after the end of the reference quarter, so a mid-February date is the most likely slot based on the established pattern. Once confirmed, the report will appear on the ONS release calendar under “Labour market overview, UK”. As with every edition, it will be published simultaneously online with no advance access for markets, and will cover the rolling three-month period ending roughly two months before the publication date.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the February 2027 release has not yet been published. Economists’ forecasts for UK labour market data are typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg in the days immediately before release, so figures will not be available this far in advance.
The most recent confirmed ONS data showed the unemployment rate at 4.9%, up 0.2 percentage points on the year but down 0.1 percentage points on the previous quarter, according to the ONS bulletin Employment in the UK: August 2026. The House of Commons Library’s labour market briefing separately confirmed the unemployment rate had risen from 4.7% a year earlier, with 1.78 million people unemployed, an increase of 83,000 over the year.
| Measure | Prior reading | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 4.9% | Not yet published |
| Employment rate (16-64) | 75.1% | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus (unemployment higher, pay growth softer) | Sterling could weaken and gilt yields could fall as traders price in a higher chance of Bank of England rate cuts | A cooling jobs market, with hiring slowing and fewer vacancies, which could feed through to lower mortgage rates over time but also signals a tougher environment for job seekers |
| In line with consensus | Limited market reaction, since the data confirms the trend economists already expected | The labour market continues on its recent path, neither accelerating nor deteriorating sharply |
| Below consensus (unemployment lower, pay growth stronger) | Sterling could strengthen and gilt yields could rise on reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts | A tighter jobs market and stronger wage growth, which can support household spending but may also keep inflation pressures higher for longer |
These are possible reactions based on how markets have typically responded to past labour market surprises, not predictions of what will happen in February 2027.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of England has repeatedly pointed to the labour market as a key gauge of underlying inflation pressure in the UK economy. Through 2026, ONS data showed the unemployment rate drifting higher, from 4.7% to 4.9%, alongside a steady decline in payrolled employee numbers, which the ONS reported falling by 121,000 between December 2024 and December 2025 according to the bulletin ONS unemployment data. This gradual loosening of the jobs market has been one of the factors the Monetary Policy Committee has weighed when discussing the pace of further interest rate changes.
Globally, the UK’s labour market trend is watched alongside similar data from the eurozone and the United States, since a softening UK jobs market combined with cooling conditions elsewhere can reinforce expectations of coordinated central bank easing. A labour market that stays tighter than expected, by contrast, can delay rate cuts not just from the Bank of England but shift relative expectations for sterling against the dollar and euro.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and borrowing: A weaker jobs report tends to raise expectations of Bank of England rate cuts, which can feed through to lower fixed mortgage rates over coming months, while a stronger report can push rates higher or keep them steady for longer.
- Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts generally track the Bank of England’s base rate, so signs of a softer labour market that point towards rate cuts could mean lower returns on cash savings in the medium term.
- Jobs and wages: The report is the clearest official guide to whether it is getting easier or harder to find work and whether pay rises are keeping up with the cost of living, which matters directly for household budgets.
- Investments and pensions: UK shares and gilts (government bonds), which underpin many pension funds, can move on this data as it shapes interest rate expectations, affecting bond prices and, indirectly, the value of pension pots.
- The pound: Sterling often reacts to labour market surprises against the US dollar and the euro, since the data feeds directly into expectations for Bank of England policy relative to the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
Related events
- The previous edition: UK Labour Market Report, January 2027
- The Bank of England’s interest rate decisions, which use labour market data as a key input
- UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation releases, published alongside the labour market data in the monthly UK economic calendar
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the UK Labour Market Report released?
Based on the ONS’s usual schedule, the report is expected at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET), though the exact February 2027 date has not yet been confirmed by the ONS.
How do I read the headline unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate shows the percentage of economically active people (those working or actively looking for work) who do not have a job. A rising rate signals a weakening jobs market, while a falling rate signals a strengthening one.
How does this report affect interest rates?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses labour market slack and wage growth to judge inflation pressure, so weaker jobs data and slower pay growth generally support the case for lower interest rates, while stronger data can delay cuts.
Where can I find the official release?
The report is published on the ONS release calendar under “Labour market overview, UK”.
When is the next UK Labour Market Report after this one?
The ONS publishes this report monthly, so the next edition typically follows around four to five weeks later. The exact date will appear on the ONS release calendar once confirmed.