UK Labour Market Report January 2027
January 19, 2027 @ 2:00 am - 3:00 am
UK Labour Market Report January 2027
Next UK Labour Market Report: Tuesday, at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London).
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 4.9% unemployment rate
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: UK Labour Market Report.
Updated
The UK Labour Market Report for January 2027 is due on Tuesday, January 19, 2027, at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET). It is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and covers the three-month period to November 2026, alongside payroll and vacancy data for December 2026. Full schedule and background: UK Labour Market Report.
What is the UK Labour Market Report?
The Labour Market Report is the ONS’s monthly summary of employment, unemployment and pay across the UK. Its headline figures come mainly from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a household survey that asks a sample of people about their work status. From this the ONS calculates the unemployment rate (the share of the workforce who are out of work but actively looking), the employment rate (the share of 16 to 64 year olds in work) and the economic inactivity rate (people neither working nor looking for work, such as students, carers or the long-term sick).
Alongside the survey data, the report includes payrolled employee numbers taken from HM Revenue and Customs’ Pay As You Earn (PAYE) records, which tend to be timelier and less volatile than the LFS, and average weekly earnings, the ONS’s main measure of pay growth, split into total pay and pay excluding bonuses.
Markets watch this release because the Bank of England uses it to judge whether the jobs market is loosening or tightening, and whether wage growth is consistent with its 2% inflation target. A weaker labour market and slowing pay growth tend to support the case for interest rate cuts, while resilient employment and strong wage growth argue for the Bank to hold rates or move more cautiously.
When is the January 2027 report released?
The ONS is due to publish the report at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET) on Tuesday, January 19, 2027, on the ONS release calendar. It follows the same monthly pattern as previous reports, including the December 2026 UK Labour Market Report. The bulletin, “Labour market overview, UK”, is published free on the ONS website together with the underlying datasets.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of now, a consensus forecast for the January 2027 release has not yet been published. City economists and data providers typically publish their forecasts for unemployment, employment and pay growth only in the days immediately before the release, so figures should be checked closer to January 19, 2027.
The most recent confirmed reading available covers May to July 2026, published by the ONS in its September 2026 bulletin. It showed the unemployment rate at 4.9%, up 0.2 percentage points on the year, and the employment rate at 75.1%. Additional reports covering the autumn months of 2026 will have updated this picture before the January 2027 release, but those later prints were not available to verify at the time of writing.
| Measure | Prior (most recently confirmed) | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 4.9% (May to July 2026) | Not yet published |
| Employment rate | 75.1% (May to July 2026) | Not yet published |
| Average weekly earnings, total pay (annual growth) | See ONS bulletin for latest print | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rises above the prior reading, pay growth cools | Investors may price in a higher chance of a Bank of England rate cut; the pound could soften against the dollar and euro | More people out of work and slower pay rises suggest the economy is cooling, which usually makes it easier for the Bank to cut borrowing costs |
| Figures come in close to the prior reading | Limited market reaction; the Bank of England’s existing rate path stays broadly intact | The jobs market is behaving roughly as expected, so there is little new information to change borrowing cost expectations |
| Unemployment falls and pay growth accelerates | Markets may push back expectations of rate cuts; gilt yields and the pound could rise | A tighter jobs market with faster pay growth raises the risk of inflation staying above target, making the Bank more cautious about cutting rates |
These are possibilities discussed by economists, not predictions. Analysts at outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically publish their own read on the numbers within minutes of release.
Why does this release matter right now?
Through 2026, ONS data pointed to a gradually softening UK jobs market: the unemployment rate rose from 4.7% a year earlier to 4.9% in the May to July 2026 quarter, according to the ONS’s Labour market overview, UK: September 2026 bulletin. The House of Commons Library’s briefing on UK labour market statistics noted that “unemployment levels increased by 83,000 over the last year” to reach 1.78 million people, with the inactivity rate at 20.9%.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee treats this data as one of its most important inputs when deciding on interest rates, alongside the monthly inflation figures. A continued rise in unemployment and slower pay growth would support the argument that the labour market is cooling enough to bring inflation durably back to target, potentially clearing the way for further rate cuts. A stalling or reversing trend, by contrast, would make policymakers more cautious. The ONS itself has flagged some volatility in Labour Force Survey response rates in recent years, meaning the PAYE payroll figures are watched closely as a cross-check on the headline unemployment and employment rates.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and borrowing: A weaker jobs report tends to raise the odds, priced in by traders, of Bank of England rate cuts, which can filter through to lower fixed and tracker mortgage rates in the following weeks. A stronger report can do the opposite.
- Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts and cash ISAs broadly track the Bank of England’s base rate, so a labour market reading that shifts rate expectations can also move the rates banks offer savers.
- Jobs and wages: The pay growth figures in this report show whether wages are keeping pace with the cost of living. Slowing pay growth alongside rising unemployment can mean weaker bargaining power for workers changing jobs or negotiating pay rises.
- Prices: Because wage growth feeds into the costs businesses face, the Bank of England watches pay data closely when judging where inflation is heading, which in turn affects the price of everyday goods and services.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: UK gilt yields, the FTSE 100 and the pound can all move on the day of release. A softer labour market that raises rate-cut expectations often weighs on the pound against the dollar and euro, while lower expected borrowing costs can support UK share prices, including in pension funds with UK equity exposure. Investors in Europe and Asia watch UK data for read-through to the Bank of England’s rate path and its knock-on effect on global bond markets.
Related events
- UK Labour Market Report, December 2026, the previous release in this monthly series
- The Bank of England’s next Monetary Policy Committee decision, which weighs this jobs data alongside inflation figures
- The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which the Bank of England reads together with wage growth data
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the UK Labour Market Report released?
The ONS publishes the report at 7:00am London time, which is 2:00am ET, on the scheduled Tuesday.
Where can I find the official release?
The bulletin, “Labour market overview, UK”, is published on the ONS release calendar and the ONS website, free to access.
How does this report affect UK interest rates?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses the unemployment rate, employment rate and wage growth figures as key evidence when deciding whether to raise, hold or cut the base rate.
Is the January 2027 date confirmed?
Yes, this date follows the ONS’s published release calendar; the ONS release calendar should still be checked closer to the date in case of any last-minute change.
When is the next UK Labour Market Report after this one?
The ONS publishes this report monthly, so the next release is expected roughly four weeks after January 19, 2027, according to the ONS release calendar.