UK Labour Market Report December 2026
December 15 @ 2:00 am - 3:00 am
UK Labour Market Report December 2026
Next UK Labour Market Report: Tuesday, at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London).
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 4.9% unemployment rate
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: UK Labour Market Report.
Updated
The UK Labour Market Report for December 2026 is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday, December 15, 2026, at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET). The release brings together the Labour Force Survey estimates of employment and unemployment, HMRC payrolled employee figures, and average earnings growth, covering the rolling three-month period through October 2026 alongside a provisional payrolled-employee estimate for November. Full background and the release schedule for this series sit on the UK Labour Market Report hub page.
What is the UK Labour Market Report?
The Labour Market Report is the ONS’s monthly snapshot of who is working, who is looking for work, and how much pay is growing across the UK economy. It combines three main data sources: the Labour Force Survey (a household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate, employment rate and economic inactivity rate), HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information (used to count payrolled employees), and the Average Weekly Earnings survey of businesses (used to measure wage growth).
Because the headline Labour Force Survey figures are a three-month rolling average, each release describes a quarter rather than a single month, for example “August to October 2026”. The payrolled employee count, by contrast, is a near-real-time HMRC tax-data series and is usually reported for the most recent single month available.
Markets watch this release closely because the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee treats the labour market as one of the clearest signals of inflationary pressure in the domestic economy. A tight jobs market with strong wage growth tends to support the case for higher interest rates, while rising unemployment and slowing pay growth make the case for cuts.
When is the December labour market report released?
The report is due on Tuesday, December 15, 2026, at 7:00am London time, which is 2:00am ET (note the report lands overnight for US traders and before the New York market opens). It is published by the Office for National Statistics and appears on the ONS website’s labour market bulletin series, alongside the accompanying data tables and the ONS release calendar.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the December 2026 release has not yet been published by data providers such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Economist forecasts for UK labour market data typically emerge in the days immediately before the release, once analysts have digested the most recent purchasing managers’ surveys, vacancy data and payroll figures. Readers should check back closer to the date for a published median forecast.
The most recent confirmed reading available at the time of writing came from the ONS bulletin covering April to June 2026, published in August 2026, which put the unemployment rate at 4.9%, up 0.2 percentage points on the year but down 0.1 percentage points on the previous quarter, according to the ONS Labour market overview, UK: August 2026. Earlier bulletins through June and July 2026 recorded the same 4.9% rate for the preceding rolling quarters, suggesting the rate had stabilised at close to a multi-year high after climbing from 5.1% in the three months to October 2025.
| Measure | Prior reading | Consensus for December release |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate (16+) | 4.9% (three months to June 2026) | Not yet published |
| Average earnings, total pay (annual growth) | 4.1% (three months to March 2026) | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment and wage growth above consensus | Sterling could firm and gilt yields could rise, as traders push back the timing of any further Bank of England rate cut | A tighter jobs market with hotter pay growth suggests inflation pressure at home is not fading, which argues for borrowing costs staying higher for longer |
| Broadly in line with the prior trend | A muted reaction, with markets keeping current interest rate expectations largely unchanged | The labour market continues on its recent path of a high but roughly stable unemployment rate and gradually cooling wage growth, giving the Bank of England no reason to shift course |
| Unemployment higher and wage growth weaker than consensus | Gilt yields could fall and sterling could soften, as markets bring forward expectations of Bank of England rate cuts | A weakening jobs market and slower pay growth reduce the risk that wages keep pushing prices up, making it easier for the Bank to cut rates to support growth |
These are possible reactions described by market commentators, not predictions. Economists at outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically frame their post-release notes around whether the data changes the expected path of Bank Rate rather than any single number in isolation.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of England has spent much of 2026 weighing a labour market that cooled from the tight conditions of 2022 and 2023 without collapsing outright. Data through the summer of 2026 showed the unemployment rate holding near 4.9%, its highest level in several years, while payrolled employee numbers fell for a sustained run of months on HMRC’s Real Time Information data, according to the ONS’s own bulletins. At the same time, wage growth has been gradually slowing from the very high rates seen earlier in the decade, with total pay growth around 4.1% and regular pay growth around 3.4% in the first quarter of 2026, per the ONS.
The House of Commons Library’s labour market briefing noted that real (inflation-adjusted) wages were still rising modestly through the second quarter of 2026, meaning household spending power was improving even as headline job numbers softened. The December report will show whether that combination of a stable-to-softer jobs market and gradually cooling pay growth has continued into the autumn, feeding directly into the Bank of England’s February 2027 rate decision and the Monetary Policy Committee’s assessment of underlying inflation pressure.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and borrowing: A weaker jobs market and slower wage growth tend to make it more likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, which can eventually feed through into cheaper fixed and tracker mortgage rates. A stronger-than-expected report has the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer.
Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts broadly track Bank Rate. If this report points towards rate cuts, savers may see returns on easy-access and fixed savings accounts drift lower over the following months.
Jobs and wages: The unemployment rate and vacancy figures give a direct read on how easy it is to find or change jobs. Wage growth figures matter for anyone negotiating a pay rise or checking whether their pay is keeping up with the cost of living.
Prices: Wage growth is one of the inputs the Bank of England watches for signs that inflation could persist, because businesses often pass higher staff costs on to customers through prices.
Investments, pensions and currencies: UK gilts, the pound and London-listed shares can all move on this data, since it shapes expectations for interest rates. A softer labour market that raises the odds of rate cuts can weaken sterling against the dollar and euro, which affects the cost of imported goods and holidays abroad, while also potentially supporting UK share prices sensitive to lower borrowing costs. Investors and pension savers with exposure to UK bonds or equities may see portfolio values shift on the day of release, particularly if the figures surprise against whatever consensus forecast is eventually published.
Related events
- Previous release: UK Labour Market Report, November 2026
- UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) release, which the Bank of England reads alongside wage growth data when assessing inflation pressure
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision, which draws directly on labour market trends shown in this report
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the UK Labour Market Report released?
The December 2026 report is released at 7:00am London time on Tuesday, December 15, 2026, which is 2:00am ET.
What period does the December report cover?
The headline employment and unemployment figures cover the rolling three-month period expected to run from August to October 2026, with a more up-to-date single-month estimate for payrolled employees.
How does this report affect UK interest rates?
The Bank of England uses labour market slack and wage growth as key gauges of domestic inflation pressure, so a notably stronger or weaker report than expected can shift market expectations for the timing of future Bank Rate changes.
Where can I find the official release?
The report is published on the ONS release calendar and appears as a “Labour market overview, UK” bulletin on the ONS website, with full data tables available for download.
When is the next UK Labour Market Report?
ONS labour market reports are published monthly, so the next release is expected in mid-January 2027, following the same rolling three-month reporting pattern.