Canada CPI September 2026
September 14 @ 8:30 am - 9:30 am
Canada CPI September 2026
Next Canada CPI: Monday, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers August 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 3.0% YoY (July 2026)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
Updated
Statistics Canada publishes the August 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Monday, September 14, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). The CPI is the country’s main measure of inflation and this release covers price data collected through August 2026. Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
What is the Consumer Price Index?
The Consumer Price Index tracks the average change over time in the prices Canadian households pay for a fixed basket of goods and services, from groceries and rent to gasoline and haircuts. Statistics Canada divides the basket into eight major groups, including food, shelter, transportation and recreation, and weights each group according to how much an average household actually spends on it.
The headline figure is the year-over-year change in the all-items index, but the Bank of Canada pays closer attention to two “core” measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, which strip out the most volatile price swings (usually fuel and some food items) to show the underlying trend. These core measures, sometimes called underlying inflation, are central to how the Bank of Canada decides whether to raise, hold or cut its policy interest rate.
Markets watch the CPI closely because it feeds directly into interest rate decisions, wage negotiations, pension indexing and government benefit adjustments. A CPI print that surprises to the upside or downside can move the Canadian dollar, bond yields and stock prices within minutes of release.
When is the August CPI released?
Statistics Canada releases the August 2026 CPI report on Monday, September 14, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm in London). The data is published in The Daily on the Statistics Canada website, alongside detailed tables covering provinces, cities and the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures. Statistics Canada had already flagged this date on its CPI portal ahead of the release, so there is no uncertainty over timing for this report.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the August 2026 CPI has not yet been published by major polling organisations such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Forecaster estimates typically firm up in the days immediately before release, closer to mid-September 2026.
The most recent published reading is the July 2026 CPI, which showed headline inflation at 3.0% year over year, up from 2.8% in June, according to Statistics Canada. That was one tick above the 2.9% median forecast from economists polled by Reuters ahead of the report, according to IndexBox. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, stood at 1.9% and 2.0% respectively in July.
| Measure | Prior (July 2026) | Consensus (August 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI, year over year | 3.0% | Not yet published |
| Core (average of CPI-trim and CPI-median) | Approximately 1.95% | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus (once a forecast is set) | A hotter than expected print would likely be read as reducing the chance of a near-term Bank of Canada rate cut, and could firm up the Canadian dollar, according to commentary from TD Economics on recent CPI reports. | Prices are rising faster than expected, which squeezes household budgets and may keep borrowing costs higher for longer. |
| In line with consensus | A result matching expectations would likely be treated as confirmation the Bank of Canada can stay on hold, with limited market reaction, in line with recent analyst commentary that “the inflation side is looking stable” cited by CBC News. | No real change to the outlook for mortgage rates, savings rates or the loonie. |
| Below consensus | A softer print would likely be read as strengthening the case for a rate cut later in 2026, potentially weighing on the Canadian dollar. | Inflation pressure is easing, which could eventually translate into lower borrowing costs, though not immediately. |
These are possibilities discussed by analysts, not predictions of the actual outcome.
Why does this release matter right now?
Canadian inflation has been volatile through the middle of 2026. Headline CPI rose to 3.2% in May 2026, the fastest pace since December 2023, largely because of a surge in gasoline prices linked to disruption in Middle East energy exports, according to Trading Economics. It then eased to 2.8% in June as fuel prices cooled, before climbing back to 3.0% in July as gasoline costs rose again, according to Statistics Canada. That puts headline inflation at the very top of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% control range.
Despite the swings in the headline number, core inflation measures that the Bank of Canada watches most closely, CPI-trim and CPI-median, have stayed close to the 2% target through this period. BMO economist Robert Kavcic described the underlying picture as “stable and well-behaved” even with some heat in the July data, according to CBC News. This August report is the last full CPI print before the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled rate announcement, so policymakers will be watching whether core inflation holds near target or drifts higher.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and loans: If inflation stays elevated, the Bank of Canada is less likely to cut its policy rate soon, which keeps variable mortgage rates and other borrowing costs higher for longer. A cooler than expected reading could revive expectations of a rate cut later in 2026.
- Savings: Higher policy rates generally mean better returns on savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates, but if real (inflation-adjusted) returns are the concern, a 3% inflation rate still erodes the purchasing power of cash sitting in low-interest accounts.
- Jobs and wages: Persistent inflation above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target can feed into wage negotiations, as workers push for pay rises to keep pace with the cost of living. This report gives an early read on whether that pressure is building or easing.
- Everyday prices: Gasoline and grocery prices have been the biggest swing factors in recent Canadian CPI reports. Households driving long distances or spending heavily on food will feel these categories most directly.
- Investments, pensions and the currency: A surprise in either direction can move the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, euro and pound within minutes, and can shift bond yields that underpin pension fund returns. Investors and pensioners with exposure to Canadian bonds or the loonie should expect some short-term volatility around the 8:30 am ET release.
Related events
- The Bank of Canada’s next scheduled interest rate decision, which will weigh this CPI print alongside other economic data.
- Canada’s monthly jobs report, published separately by Statistics Canada, which feeds into the same labour market picture the Bank of Canada monitors.
- The United States CPI report, typically released in the same week, which can add to or offset currency moves triggered by the Canadian data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the August 2026 Canada CPI released?
Statistics Canada publishes the report at 8:30 am ET on Monday, September 14, 2026, which is 1:30 pm in London.
How do I read the headline versus core CPI figures?
The headline figure is the change in the full basket of goods and services, while core measures such as CPI-trim and CPI-median strip out volatile items like fuel to show the underlying inflation trend the Bank of Canada relies on.
How does this report affect Bank of Canada interest rate decisions?
The Bank of Canada uses CPI data, especially the core measures, to judge whether inflation is on track to return to its 2% target, which directly influences whether it holds, cuts or raises its policy interest rate.
Where can I find the official release?
The report is published in The Daily on the Statistics Canada website, along with detailed data tables by province and city.
When is the next Canada CPI report after this one?
Statistics Canada typically releases CPI data roughly one month later, covering September 2026, with the exact date confirmed on its CPI release schedule closer to the time.