Canada CPI September 2026

Statistics Canada publishes the August 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Monday, September 14, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). The CPI is the country’s main measure of inflation and this release covers price data collected through August 2026. Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.

What is the Consumer Price Index?

The Consumer Price Index tracks the average change over time in the prices Canadian households pay for a fixed basket of goods and services, from groceries and rent to gasoline and haircuts. Statistics Canada divides the basket into eight major groups, including food, shelter, transportation and recreation, and weights each group according to how much an average household actually spends on it.

The headline figure is the year-over-year change in the all-items index, but the Bank of Canada pays closer attention to two “core” measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, which strip out the most volatile price swings (usually fuel and some food items) to show the underlying trend. These core measures, sometimes called underlying inflation, are central to how the Bank of Canada decides whether to raise, hold or cut its policy interest rate.

Markets watch the CPI closely because it feeds directly into interest rate decisions, wage negotiations, pension indexing and government benefit adjustments. A CPI print that surprises to the upside or downside can move the Canadian dollar, bond yields and stock prices within minutes of release.

When is the August CPI released?

Statistics Canada releases the August 2026 CPI report on Monday, September 14, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm in London). The data is published in The Daily on the Statistics Canada website, alongside detailed tables covering provinces, cities and the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures. Statistics Canada had already flagged this date on its CPI portal ahead of the release, so there is no uncertainty over timing for this report.

What is the consensus forecast?

A consensus forecast for the August 2026 CPI has not yet been published by major polling organisations such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Forecaster estimates typically firm up in the days immediately before release, closer to mid-September 2026.

The most recent published reading is the July 2026 CPI, which showed headline inflation at 3.0% year over year, up from 2.8% in June, according to Statistics Canada. That was one tick above the 2.9% median forecast from economists polled by Reuters ahead of the report, according to IndexBox. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, stood at 1.9% and 2.0% respectively in July.

What the result could mean

These are possibilities discussed by analysts, not predictions of the actual outcome.

Why does this release matter right now?

Canadian inflation has been volatile through the middle of 2026. Headline CPI rose to 3.2% in May 2026, the fastest pace since December 2023, largely because of a surge in gasoline prices linked to disruption in Middle East energy exports, according to Trading Economics. It then eased to 2.8% in June as fuel prices cooled, before climbing back to 3.0% in July as gasoline costs rose again, according to Statistics Canada. That puts headline inflation at the very top of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% control range.

Despite the swings in the headline number, core inflation measures that the Bank of Canada watches most closely, CPI-trim and CPI-median, have stayed close to the 2% target through this period. BMO economist Robert Kavcic described the underlying picture as “stable and well-behaved” even with some heat in the July data, according to CBC News. This August report is the last full CPI print before the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled rate announcement, so policymakers will be watching whether core inflation holds near target or drifts higher.

What It Means for Your Money

• Mortgages and loans: If inflation stays elevated, the Bank of Canada is less likely to cut its policy rate soon, which keeps variable mortgage rates and other borrowing costs higher for longer. A cooler than expected reading could revive expectations of a rate cut later in 2026.
• Savings: Higher policy rates generally mean better returns on savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates, but if real (inflation-adjusted) returns are the concern, a 3% inflation rate still erodes the purchasing power of cash sitting in low-interest accounts.
• Jobs and wages: Persistent inflation above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target can feed into wage negotiations, as workers push for pay rises to keep pace with the cost of living. This report gives an early read on whether that pressure is building or easing.
• Everyday prices: Gasoline and grocery prices have been the biggest swing factors in recent Canadian CPI reports. Households driving long distances or spending heavily on food will feel these categories most directly.
• Investments, pensions and the currency: A surprise in either direction can move the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, euro and pound within minutes, and can shift bond yields that underpin pension fund returns. Investors and pensioners with exposure to Canadian bonds or the loonie should expect some short-term volatility around the 8:30 am ET release.

Related events

• The Bank of Canada’s next scheduled interest rate decision, which will weigh this CPI print alongside other economic data.
• Canada’s monthly jobs report, published separately by Statistics Canada, which feeds into the same labour market picture the Bank of Canada monitors.
• The United States CPI report, typically released in the same week, which can add to or offset currency moves triggered by the Canadian data.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time is the August 2026 Canada CPI released?

Statistics Canada publishes the report at 8:30 am ET on Monday, September 14, 2026, which is 1:30 pm in London.

How do I read the headline versus core CPI figures?

The headline figure is the change in the full basket of goods and services, while core measures such as CPI-trim and CPI-median strip out volatile items like fuel to show the underlying inflation trend the Bank of Canada relies on.

How does this report affect Bank of Canada interest rate decisions?

The Bank of Canada uses CPI data, especially the core measures, to judge whether inflation is on track to return to its 2% target, which directly influences whether it holds, cuts or raises its policy interest rate.

Where can I find the official release?

The report is published in The Daily on the Statistics Canada website, along with detailed data tables by province and city.

When is the next Canada CPI report after this one?

Statistics Canada typically releases CPI data roughly one month later, covering September 2026, with the exact date confirmed on its CPI release schedule closer to the time.

Results: Canada CPI, August 2026

Statistics Canada reported that annual inflation held at 3.0% in August 2026, matching both the July reading and the median forecast from economists polled by LSEG Data & Analytics, according to CBC News. On a monthly basis, however, consumer prices fell 0.1%, a softer outcome than the 0.3% rise economists had pencilled in, according to FXStreet.

The agency said a slowdown in the pace of rising gasoline prices, up 22.8% year over year versus 25.7% in July, was offset by higher rent and travel tour costs, according to BNN Bloomberg. Grocery prices rose 2.8% year over year, the first time in more than two years that food inflation ran slower than the headline rate, while excluding gasoline, consumer prices rose 2.4%. This landed close to the “in line with consensus” scenario flagged in the preview: the Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, were unchanged from July at 1.9% and 2.0% respectively, both still hovering near the 2% inflation target.

The result arrives less than two weeks after the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, its seventh consecutive hold, as it weighs volatile global energy prices and the drag from US tariffs on the Canadian economy.

Market Reaction

Because the headline figure matched consensus and the core measures were unchanged, the reaction across Canadian assets was contained rather than dramatic. Short-term Government of Canada bond yields showed little sustained movement, consistent with a report that broadly confirmed the Bank of Canada’s existing view that underlying inflation is stable near target, even as headline inflation sits at the top of the central bank’s 1% to 3% control range.

The unexpected monthly decline of 0.1%, against expectations of a 0.3% increase, gave a mildly softer edge to the release that some traders may read as marginally reducing the odds of any near-term rate rise, though it did not materially shift expectations for the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled decision. The Canadian dollar, which according to FXStreet had already been losing momentum against the US dollar in the run-up to the release, showed no sharp directional break either way in the immediate aftermath, consistent with a data point that landed close to what forecasters had priced in.

What this means for your money now

With headline inflation unchanged at 3.0% and core measures steady near 2%, the outlook for interest rates, mortgages and savings is largely unchanged from before this release. Variable mortgage holders and savers should not expect this report alone to shift the Bank of Canada’s stance at its next meeting, though households will still feel the effects of a 3% inflation rate eroding the purchasing power of wages and cash savings, particularly through higher rent, travel and shelter costs highlighted in the August data.