US ISM Manufacturing PMI October 2026

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 is scheduled for release on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London) by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). As with all ISM Manufacturing PMI reports, the exact date has not yet been formally confirmed by ISM; the institute publishes this survey on the first business day of each month, which points to October 1, 2026 for the September reading. Full background and the release schedule for this series are on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI hub page.

What is the ISM Manufacturing PMI?

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based index that measures whether business conditions in the US manufacturing sector are expanding or contracting compared with the previous month. ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at several hundred companies across 18 manufacturing industries, asking about new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories. The responses are combined into a single headline number.

A reading above 50 signals that manufacturing activity is expanding; a reading below 50 signals contraction. The distance from 50, not just the direction, matters: a jump from 51 to 56 is read very differently from a move from 51 to 52. Because the survey is one of the first hard-ish indicators available each month, well before official government data on factory output or durable goods orders, traders, economists and company executives treat it as an early read on the health of the industrial economy.

Markets watch the PMI because manufacturing, though a smaller share of US output than services, tends to lead the wider economic cycle. A sustained slide toward or below 50 has historically preceded broader slowdowns, while a rebound above 55 usually points to firmer industrial demand, which can feed through to hiring, capital spending and, eventually, prices.

When is the September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI released?

The report is due on October 1, 2026 at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London. ISM publishes the report on its own website and distributes it simultaneously to newswires and data terminals. As noted above, ISM has not yet formally confirmed this specific date; it is estimated from the institute’s standing practice of releasing the Manufacturing PMI on the first business day of the month covering the prior month’s data.

What is the consensus forecast?

A consensus forecast for the September 2026 reading has not yet been published. Economist surveys for ISM data are typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg in the final days of the survey month, so a consensus figure will not normally appear until late September 2026, shortly before the release.

The most recently confirmed print at the time of writing is July 2026, when the headline index rose to 55.6 from 53.3 in June, marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion and the strongest reading since May 2022, according to TD Economics. The prices paid sub-index eased for a third straight month to 71.1 from 73.0 over the same period, per the same source. ISM was scheduled to publish the August 2026 figure on September 1, 2026, ahead of this October release, so that print will supersede July’s as the immediate prior reading by the time this report lands.

What the result could mean

These are possible market reads, not predictions, and the eventual reaction will also depend on the tone of the accompanying comments from the ISM survey committee chair and on what other data is released the same week.

Why does this release matter right now?

Manufacturing has been a focal point for policymakers through 2026 because of the interplay between tariffs, input costs and demand. TD Economics noted that price pressures had eased for three straight months into July 2026, even as input costs remain elevated, with survey respondents citing tariffs, metals prices and transportation constraints. That combination, expansion in activity alongside still-high input costs, is exactly the kind of mixed signal that the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all watch when weighing the trade-off between supporting growth and containing inflation.

The trend into the September report also matters. Having moved from 53.3 in June to 55.6 in July 2026, the index had been in expansion for seven consecutive months, its best run since 2022. Whether that momentum holds, accelerates or fades in the August and September prints will shape how much weight investors place on manufacturing strength when judging the odds of further Fed interest rate moves later in the year.

What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and borrowing: A stronger-than-expected manufacturing sector can reduce the perceived need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which tends to keep US mortgage and borrowing costs a little higher for longer. A weak reading works the other way, often nudging bond yields, and therefore mortgage rates, lower.

Savings: If the data pushes expectations for interest rates higher, savers with cash accounts or money market funds may see slightly better returns; a weak report can do the opposite.

Jobs and wages: The employment component of the survey is watched closely because manufacturing hiring and layoffs often show up here before they appear in the official US jobs report, giving an early signal for factory workers and related supply chains, including those in Europe and Asia that supply US manufacturers.

Prices you pay: The prices paid sub-index tracks costs manufacturers face for raw materials. Persistently high readings can eventually filter through to the shelf price of goods, from cars to household appliances.

Investments, pensions and currencies: Industrial and manufacturing-heavy shares often move on this release, and a surprise in either direction can ripple into pension fund valuations. The US dollar, and by extension the pound and euro exchange rates, can also shift if the data changes the market’s view of US interest rate policy, affecting the cost of holiday travel, imports and overseas investments for UK and European readers.

Related events

• The August 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI report, published September 1, 2026, which will set the immediate prior figure for this release.
• The US jobs report (nonfarm payrolls), typically released the first Friday of the month, which often follows shortly after the ISM Manufacturing PMI and is watched for confirmation of the survey’s employment signal.
• The full release calendar and historical background is on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI hub page.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time is the September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI released?

It is expected at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London, on October 1, 2026, though ISM has not formally confirmed the exact date.

How do I read the ISM Manufacturing PMI number?

A reading above 50 means manufacturing activity is expanding compared with the prior month; below 50 means it is contracting. The further from 50, the stronger the signal.

How does this data affect interest rates?

Central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, watch manufacturing strength alongside inflation data when weighing interest rate decisions; a hot reading can reduce pressure to cut rates, while a weak one can increase it.

Where can I find the official release?

The report is published directly by the Institute for Supply Management on its website, ismworld.org, and distributed simultaneously to financial data providers.

When is the next ISM Manufacturing PMI release after this one?

ISM typically publishes the following month’s report, covering October 2026 data, on the first business day of November 2026.