UK CPI Inflation February 2027
February 17, 2027 @ 2:00 am - 3:00 am
UK CPI Inflation February 2027
Next UK CPI Inflation: Wednesday, at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London). Covers January 2027 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 3.1% YoY (August 2026)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: UK CPI Inflation.
Updated
The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) report for January 2027 is scheduled for release on Wednesday, February 17, 2027, at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET). It is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and covers price changes across the UK economy during January 2027. Full schedule and background: UK CPI report dates.
What is UK CPI inflation?
The Consumer Prices Index measures how the average cost of a fixed basket of goods and services bought by UK households changes from one period to the next. The ONS tracks thousands of prices every month, from food and fuel to rent and restaurant meals, and weights them according to how much households typically spend on each category. The headline figure is the annual, or year-on-year, rate: how much more (or less) that basket costs compared with the same month a year earlier.
Alongside headline CPI, the ONS publishes core CPI, which strips out the most volatile items, typically energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. Core inflation is watched closely because it is thought to better reflect underlying price pressure in the economy, away from short-term swings in oil or food markets.
CPI matters because it is the measure the Bank of England uses for its 2% inflation target. When CPI runs persistently above or below that target, it shapes the Bank’s decisions on Bank Rate, which in turn affects mortgage costs, savings returns and the value of the pound.
When is the January 2027 CPI report released?
The ONS is due to publish the January 2027 inflation bulletin on February 17, 2027 at 7:00 am GMT, which is 2:00 am ET in New York. The ONS almost always releases its monthly inflation bulletin on a Wednesday, roughly three weeks after the end of the reference month, and this report is expected to follow that pattern. The data will appear on the ONS website alongside the underlying CPIH and RPI measures.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the January 2027 CPI report has not yet been published. City economists and data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically only begin polling forecasts in the days immediately before a release, so figures will likely appear closer to February 17, 2027.
The most recently confirmed CPI reading available was for August 2026, when annual CPI inflation came in at 3.1%, matching the forecast tracked by Investing.com and up from 2.9% the previous month, according to data compiled by Investing.com’s UK CPI tracker. Earlier in the year, the ONS reported that CPI slowed to 3.0% in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December 2025, in its Consumer price inflation, UK: January 2026 bulletin. Figures for the months immediately before January 2027 had not been published at the time this page was prepared.
| Measure | Most recent confirmed reading | Consensus forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (year-on-year) | 3.1% (August 2026) | Not yet published |
| Core CPI (year-on-year) | Not yet confirmed for this period | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Sterling could strengthen and gilt yields could rise as traders price in a slower pace of Bank Rate cuts, a pattern seen after previous upside surprises, according to commentary from Reuters on past CPI days | Prices are rising faster than expected, which could keep the Bank of England cautious about cutting interest rates |
| In line with consensus | A broadly muted reaction in currency and bond markets, since an expected outcome rarely forces traders to reposition | Inflation is behaving as economists predicted, so the Bank of England’s existing plans are unlikely to change |
| Below consensus | Sterling could soften and investors may bring forward bets on interest rate cuts, consistent with market moves after previous downside surprises reported by Reuters | Prices are rising more slowly than expected, which could open the door to cheaper borrowing sooner |
These are possibilities drawn from how markets have reacted to past CPI surprises, not predictions of what will happen on February 17, 2027.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of England sets Bank Rate with an eye on exactly this data. Through 2026, UK CPI inflation moved within a range of roughly 2.9% to 3.4%, according to ONS bulletins and data tracked by Investing.com, staying above the Bank’s 2% target for an extended period. Each new reading feeds directly into the Monetary Policy Committee’s assessment of whether rates need to stay higher for longer, or whether there is room to cut.
Inflation in Britain has also been compared internationally. The ONS noted in its January 2026 bulletin that the UK’s CPI rate was higher than that of Germany (2.1%) and France (0.4%)
at that point, underlining why global investors, not just UK-based ones, watch this release. A reading that diverges sharply from the recent run of figures could shift expectations for the pound against the dollar and the euro, and influence how the Bank of England is perceived relative to the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages: If inflation surprises to the upside, lenders may price in fewer or later Bank Rate cuts, which can keep fixed-rate mortgage deals more expensive than borrowers hope. A softer reading can work the other way, feeding through to cheaper new fixed-rate deals over time.
- Savings: Savings account and cash ISA rates tend to track Bank Rate expectations. Persistently high inflation readings can support higher savings rates for longer, while a run of weaker prints can see those rates drift down as cuts are brought forward.
- Jobs and wages: The Bank of England watches CPI alongside wage growth to judge whether pay rises are adding to inflation. Sustained high inflation can squeeze real wages if pay does not keep pace, affecting household budgets across the UK.
- Prices on the high street: CPI is a direct measure of what households already feel at the till, covering food, transport, housing and more. A falling rate means prices are still rising, just more slowly, not that costs are coming down.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: UK gilts, shares and the pound can all move on a surprise CPI print. For pension savers, higher-than-expected inflation can erode the real value of fixed pension incomes, while currency swings affect anyone holding sterling-denominated assets or planning to convert pounds to dollars or euros.
Related events
- Previous release: UK CPI Inflation January 2027, covering December 2026 data
- Full UK CPI release calendar: UK CPI report dates
- Bank of England interest rate decisions, which respond directly to CPI trends
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the January 2027 UK CPI report released?
The ONS is scheduled to publish the report at 7:00 am London time on February 17, 2027, which is 2:00 am ET in New York.
How do I read the headline CPI figure?
The headline figure is the annual, year-on-year percentage change in the price of a typical household basket of goods and services, so a reading of 3.0% means prices are on average 3.0% higher than a year earlier.
How does this data affect UK interest rates?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses CPI as its main gauge of progress toward the 2% inflation target, so readings that are higher or lower than expected can shift expectations for Bank Rate and, in turn, mortgage and savings rates.
Where can I find the official release?
The official bulletin is published on the ONS release calendar and in the Consumer price inflation statistical bulletin on the ONS website.
When is the next UK CPI release after this one?
Based on the ONS’s usual monthly pattern, the following report, covering February 2027 data, would be expected around late March 2027, though the exact date is confirmed only once the ONS adds it to its release calendar.