UK GDP February 2027
February 12, 2027 @ 2:00 am - 3:00 am
UK GDP February 2027
Next UK GDP: Friday, at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London). Covers Q4 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 0.5% QoQ (Q2 2026, ONS)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: UK GDP.
Updated
The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the fourth quarter of 2026 is due on Friday, February 12, 2027, at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET). It is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and covers economic output for October, November and December 2026, alongside a monthly GDP estimate for December 2026. Full background and the release schedule for this series sit on the UK GDP report hub page.
What is GDP and why does it matter?
Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK economy over a given period. The ONS builds the figure from three angles that should, in theory, arrive at the same number: what the economy produced (output), what was spent on it (expenditure) and what was earned from it (income). The headline figure markets watch is the quarter-on-quarter change in real GDP, which strips out the effect of inflation so it reflects actual volumes of activity rather than rising prices.
GDP is the single most-watched gauge of economic health because it feeds almost every other decision that affects household finances. The Bank of England weighs GDP growth alongside inflation and the labour market when it sets Bank Rate. The Treasury uses it to judge how much tax revenue it can expect and how much room it has for spending. Investors use it to judge whether UK company earnings and the pound are likely to strengthen or weaken.
Because the ONS also publishes a monthly GDP index, this quarterly release effectively confirms and extends the picture built up from the October, November and December monthly prints, smoothing out some of the noise in any single month.
When is the Q4 2026 GDP report released?
The ONS first quarterly estimate of GDP for October to December 2026 is scheduled for Friday, February 12, 2027 at 7:00am GMT (2:00am ET). It is published on the ONS release calendar as part of its GDP quarterly national accounts series, alongside the monthly GDP figures for December 2026. The release typically arrives around 40 days after the end of the reference quarter, which is standard for the UK’s “first estimate” of quarterly GDP.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the October to December 2026 quarter had not yet been published. Surveys from Reuters and Bloomberg economist panels are typically released in the days immediately before the data, so readers should check those sources closer to February 12, 2027 for an up-to-date figure.
The most recently confirmed reading in this series is the ONS’s second estimate for Quarter 2 (April to June) 2026, which showed real GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, revised up from an initial 0.4%, following growth of 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026, according to the ONS quarterly national accounts bulletin. A preliminary estimate for Quarter 3 (July to September) 2026 was due on November 12, 2026, and will have been published and potentially revised by the time this Q4 release lands, forming the direct “prior” comparison for the February reading.
| Measure | Prior (Q2 2026) | Consensus for Q4 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly GDP (QoQ) | 0.5% | Not yet published |
| Annual GDP (YoY) | 1.2% | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Could be read as reducing the case for near-term Bank Rate cuts, potentially supporting the pound, since stronger growth gives the Bank of England less reason to ease policy quickly | The economy grew faster than expected, which is generally good news for jobs and company profits, though it could also mean borrowing costs stay higher for longer |
| In line | Likely to have limited market impact if it matches what traders had already priced in | The economy performed broadly as expected, so this release alone is unlikely to change the outlook for interest rates or the pound |
| Below consensus | Could increase expectations of earlier or faster Bank Rate cuts and put pressure on the pound, as weaker growth raises concerns about a slowing economy | Growth was softer than hoped, which can point to weaker hiring, softer wage growth and increased pressure on the government’s finances |
These are possible market reactions rather than predictions. Economists caution that a single quarterly print rarely changes the Bank of England’s view on its own; policymakers tend to look at a run of data alongside inflation and wage figures before adjusting Bank Rate, a point regularly made in Bank of England communications.
Why does this release matter right now?
UK growth has been modest but positive through 2026, with the ONS recording GDP expansion of 0.6% in Quarter 1 and 0.5% in Quarter 2, and annual growth running at 1.2% in the year to Quarter 2 2026. Services have been the main driver of output, while construction and production have been more volatile, according to the ONS’s quarterly national accounts bulletin for April to June 2026. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has been balancing this gradual growth against the path of inflation and wage settlements when deciding how quickly to adjust Bank Rate.
Because this release falls in February 2027, it will be one of the clearest signals available to the Bank of England ahead of its subsequent rate decisions, and to the Treasury ahead of any fiscal statements, on whether the economy carried momentum through the final quarter of 2026 or lost pace as the year closed.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and borrowing: Stronger-than-expected growth can reduce the chance of imminent Bank Rate cuts, which may keep mortgage and loan rates higher for longer. Weaker growth can increase the odds of rate cuts, which could eventually feed through to cheaper fixed-rate mortgage deals.
- Savings: Savings account rates tend to track Bank Rate expectations, so a weak GDP print that raises the odds of rate cuts could see banks trim the interest paid on easy-access and fixed-term savings in the following months.
- Jobs and wages: GDP growth and employment are closely linked. A run of weak GDP readings often precedes softer hiring and slower pay growth, while stronger output tends to support job creation, particularly in services.
- Prices: GDP does not directly set prices in shops, but persistently weak growth alongside high inflation, sometimes called stagflation, is watched closely because it limits the Bank of England’s room to cut rates even if households are feeling squeezed.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: UK shares and the pound can move on the day of release, since fund managers and currency traders use GDP as a proxy for corporate earnings potential and for comparing the UK economy with the US, the eurozone and Asia. A weaker pound can make imported goods more expensive but can also support UK exporters, while pension funds with UK equity exposure may see short-term price swings around the data.
Related events
- Monthly GDP release for January 2027: see the UK GDP January 2027 preview
- Full release history and schedule on the UK GDP hub page
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meetings, which weigh GDP alongside inflation and wage data when setting Bank Rate
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the UK Q4 2026 GDP report released?
The ONS publishes the report at 7:00am London time (7:00am GMT), which is 2:00am ET, on Friday, February 12, 2027.
How should I read the GDP figures?
Focus on the quarter-on-quarter change in real GDP for the headline growth rate, and check the accompanying monthly GDP figure for December 2026 to see whether momentum was building or fading as the quarter ended.
How does UK GDP affect interest rates?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee considers GDP growth, alongside inflation and the labour market, when deciding whether to raise, hold or cut Bank Rate, so unexpectedly strong or weak growth can shift expectations for future rate decisions.
Where can I find the official release?
The data is published directly by the Office for National Statistics on its release calendar, under the GDP quarterly national accounts and monthly GDP series.
When is the next UK GDP release after this one?
The ONS publishes a monthly GDP estimate roughly every month, with the next quarterly estimate, covering January to March 2027, typically following around 40 days after that quarter ends. Check the UK GDP hub page for the confirmed date.