US ISM Manufacturing PMI February 2027
February 1, 2027 @ 10:00 am - 11:00 am
US ISM Manufacturing PMI February 2027
Next US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 54.5% (September 2026)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Updated
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February 2027 is due on Monday, February 1, 2027 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time), published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). This release covers data collected from purchasing and supply executives during January 2027. As with most ISM reports, the Institute has not yet formally confirmed this exact date on its public calendar, but ISM traditionally publishes the Manufacturing PMI on the first business day of each month, which points to February 1, 2027. Full background and the release schedule can be found on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI hub page.
What is the ISM Manufacturing PMI?
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey-based gauge of activity in the US manufacturing sector. Each month, ISM asks purchasing and supply executives at more than 400 industrial companies whether conditions in areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories are better, worse or unchanged than the previous month. The responses are weighted and combined into a single diffusion index.
A reading above 50% signals that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding compared with the prior month, while a reading below 50% signals contraction. The further the number sits from 50, the stronger the signal. Because the survey is forward-looking and timely, often released before official government manufacturing data, markets, the Federal Reserve and corporate planners treat it as one of the earliest and most reliable snapshots of industrial momentum each month.
Investors watch the sub-indices as closely as the headline number. New orders tend to lead the rest of the index and hint at future production. Prices paid flags cost pressures that can feed into broader inflation. Employment offers an early read on factory hiring ahead of the official jobs report.
When is the January 2027 ISM Manufacturing PMI released?
The report covering January 2027 activity is scheduled for release on Monday, February 1, 2027, at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm in London). It is published directly by the Institute for Supply Management on its website, and is simultaneously carried by financial data terminals and major newswires. Because ISM has not yet posted its formal 2027 release calendar at the time of writing, this date is an estimate based on the Institute’s long-standing pattern of releasing the Manufacturing PMI on the first business day of the month.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the January 2027 ISM Manufacturing PMI has not yet been published. Economist surveys from Reuters, Bloomberg and similar providers are typically compiled only in the days immediately before each release, so no poll exists this far in advance. Once available closer to February 1, 2027, the consensus and the most recent prior reading will normally appear in the table below and in the answer box at the top of this page.
The most recent confirmed reading available at the time of writing was 54.5% in September 2026, marking the ninth consecutive month in expansion territory, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s official report carried by PR Newswire. Readers should check the official ISM release nearer the date for the latest confirmed prior figure, since several more monthly prints will have been published between September 2026 and January 2027.
| Measure | Prior (most recently confirmed) | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Headline Manufacturing PMI | 54.5% (September 2026) | Not yet published |
| New Orders Index | Growing (September 2026) | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Seen as a sign of stronger factory momentum, which could reduce expectations of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts if growth looks strong enough to keep inflation sticky | Factories are busier than expected, which can support jobs and output but may also keep borrowing costs higher for longer |
| In line with consensus | Typically a muted market reaction since the number matches what was already priced in | The manufacturing sector is behaving broadly as expected, with no major surprise for policy or markets |
| Below consensus | Often read as a sign of cooling industrial activity, which can increase bets on the Fed holding or cutting rates sooner | Factories are producing or ordering less than hoped, a possible early warning of softer growth or job losses ahead |
These are illustrative possibilities rather than predictions. Actual market moves depend on the wider data picture at the time, including inflation trends and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
Why does this release matter right now?
Manufacturing has swung sharply over the past two years. The sector spent much of 2025 in contraction, with the index falling to 47.9% in December 2025, its lowest reading of that year and the tenth consecutive month below the 50% expansion threshold, according to IndustryWeek. Activity then recovered through 2026, with the index climbing back above 50% and reaching 52.7% in March 2026, 54.0% in May 2026 and 55.6% in July 2026, before easing slightly to 54.6% in August 2026 and 54.5% in September 2026, according to official ISM figures distributed via PR Newswire.
This swing from contraction to a sustained run of expansion is one reason the Federal Reserve and other central banks pay close attention to the ISM series: it offers an early read on whether industrial demand is firming or fading well before quarterly GDP data confirms the trend. A further run of readings above 50% would reinforce the narrative of a resilient US industrial base, while any slide back toward or below 50% would raise fresh questions about the durability of the recovery seen through much of 2026.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and borrowing rates: A stronger-than-expected PMI can push bond yields higher as investors trim expectations of Fed rate cuts, which can feed through to mortgage and other borrowing costs in the US and, via global bond markets, in the UK and eurozone too.
- Savings: If the data supports the case for the Fed holding rates higher for longer, savers in cash accounts and money market funds may see little change or a modest benefit, while a weak reading that raises hopes of rate cuts could eventually mean lower returns on cash.
- Jobs and wages: The employment component of the PMI offers an early hint about factory hiring. A run of weak readings can be an early warning sign for manufacturing job losses, which matters for workers in the US Midwest and manufacturing-heavy regions of Europe and Asia that supply US factories.
- Prices: The prices paid index tracks input cost pressures faced by manufacturers. Rising costs here can eventually show up in the prices of goods on shelves, affecting household budgets.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: Industrial stocks and broader equity indices often react to the PMI, and the dollar can strengthen on a stronger print as traders price in a more hawkish Fed stance. A weaker dollar or stronger pound and euro are possible if the data undershoots expectations, which affects the value of overseas pension holdings and import prices for UK and European households.
Related events
- Previous release: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, January 2027
- Full release schedule and background: US ISM Manufacturing PMI hub page
- Readers tracking the broader US economy may also want to watch the ISM Services PMI and the monthly US jobs report, both of which are released close to the Manufacturing PMI each month
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the ISM Manufacturing PMI released?
The report is scheduled for 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London, on the first business day of the month covering the prior month’s activity.
How do I read the ISM Manufacturing PMI number?
A reading above 50% signals expansion in manufacturing compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50% signals contraction, with the distance from 50 indicating the strength of the signal.
Does the ISM Manufacturing PMI affect Federal Reserve interest rate decisions?
The Fed does not target this index directly, but it is one of many indicators policymakers monitor for signs of industrial momentum or weakness that could influence the outlook for growth and inflation.
Where can I find the official ISM Manufacturing PMI release?
The official report is published on the Institute for Supply Management’s website, ismworld.org, and distributed to newswires at the same time.
When is the next ISM Manufacturing PMI release after this one?
ISM publishes the Manufacturing PMI monthly, so the next release covering February 2027 activity would typically follow on the first business day of March 2027.