Bank of Canada Rate Decision January 2027
January 27, 2027 @ 9:45 am - 10:45 am
Bank of Canada Rate Decision January 2027
Next Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Wednesday, at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London).
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- Held at 2.25% (July 29, 2026)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada Rate Decision.
Updated
The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council announces its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, January 27, 2027, at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London). The announcement will confirm whether the target for the overnight rate, the Bank’s main policy tool, is held, cut or raised from its most recently confirmed level. Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada rate decision dates.
What is the Governing Council and what does it decide?
The Governing Council is the Bank of Canada’s senior decision-making body. It is made up of the Governor, the Senior Deputy Governor and several Deputy Governors. Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada does not publish individual votes: decisions are reached by consensus among the Governing Council members after reviewing economic data, financial conditions and risks to the inflation outlook.
The Council’s mandate, set jointly with the federal government, is to keep consumer price inflation near a 2% target over the medium term while supporting maximum sustainable employment. It meets on eight fixed announcement dates a year, roughly every six weeks, to set the target for the overnight rate, the rate at which major financial institutions lend to each other overnight. That rate feeds through to the Bank Rate, the deposit rate, and ultimately to the prime rate that Canadian banks charge on variable mortgages and lines of credit.
At Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conferences following each decision, he and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers explain the reasoning behind the move and take questions from journalists, giving markets extra detail beyond the written statement.
When is the January 2027 Bank of Canada decision announced?
The announcement is due at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London time) on January 27, 2027. As with every fixed announcement date, the Bank releases a short statement explaining the decision and the Governing Council’s assessment of the economy. January decisions typically coincide with a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank’s quarterly publication containing updated projections for growth, inflation and the output gap, along with a press conference held roughly 45 minutes after the statement.
The Bank does not publish a separate “minutes” document in the way the Federal Reserve or Bank of England does. Instead, it releases a Summary of Governing Council Deliberations roughly two weeks after each decision, giving a fuller account of the discussion that led to the announcement.
What to expect
At the time of writing, the most recently verified Bank of Canada decision held the target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%, following a hold confirmed on July 29, 2026, according to the Bank of Canada’s own published schedule and decision history. The Bank’s December 2026 and earlier 2026 decisions will shape the starting point for this January 2027 meeting; see the December 2026 Bank of Canada decision for the latest confirmed rate ahead of this announcement.
A consensus forecast for the January 2027 decision has not yet been published. Economist surveys and market-implied pricing from overnight index swaps typically firm up only in the days immediately before each meeting, once the Bank has released fresh inflation and labour market data.
| Meeting | Decision | Rate after meeting |
|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2025 | Hold | 2.75% |
| September 17, 2025 | Cut 25bp | 2.50% |
| October 29, 2025 | Cut 25bp | 2.25% |
| December 10, 2025 | Hold | 2.25% |
| April 29, 2026 | Hold | 2.25% |
| July 29, 2026 | Hold | 2.25% |
Market impact scenarios
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Hold | Neutral to modestly supportive for the Canadian dollar if the statement sounds cautious rather than dovish | Borrowing costs stay where they are for now; the Bank is still watching how inflation and growth are developing before moving again |
| Cut | Typically weighs on the Canadian dollar and government bond yields as traders price in a softer growth or inflation outlook | Variable mortgage and loan rates could ease, and savings account returns may fall, but it usually signals the Bank sees the economy slowing |
| Hike | Would be a significant surprise at this stage of the cycle and could push the Canadian dollar higher against the US dollar and the euro | Borrowing becomes more expensive, but it would suggest the Bank judges inflation pressure has picked up again |
What will the statement and press conference signal?
Analysts watching the January 2027 statement will focus on the Bank’s language around the balance of risks between inflation and economic slack, any reference to US trade policy and tariffs, and whether the updated Monetary Policy Report projections shift the expected path for growth and core inflation. Because Governing Council decisions are reached by consensus rather than a recorded vote, dissent is not disclosed in real time, so markets instead look for hints of internal debate in the Summary of Governing Council Deliberations released roughly two weeks later. Governor Macklem’s tone in the press conference, particularly on whether the Bank sees the current rate as “about the right level,” is often as market-moving as the decision itself.
What It Means for Your Money
If you have a variable-rate mortgage or a home equity line of credit in Canada, this decision feeds almost directly into your monthly payment, because those products are priced off the prime rate, which moves with the Bank’s overnight rate. A hold means no immediate change; a cut typically lowers payments within days; a hike raises them. Fixed-rate mortgages are less directly affected, since they track government bond yields, but a surprise move can still shift those yields.
Savers with high-interest savings accounts or short-term GICs in Canada will see rates on new products adjust in the same direction as the policy rate, usually with a short lag. Credit card rates, which are often set as prime plus a fixed margin, move the same way.
Outside Canada, the decision matters for anyone holding Canadian dollar investments, pension funds with Canadian bond or equity exposure, or UK and European exporters who price contracts in Canadian dollars. A cut tends to weaken the currency against the US dollar, the pound and the euro, making Canadian exports cheaper and imports more expensive; a hold or hike tends to support it. Canadian and global pension funds that hold Government of Canada bonds will also see valuations shift with any change in expected future rates.
Related events
- Previous decision: Bank of Canada Rate Decision December 2026
- Canadian CPI inflation data released in the weeks before each meeting, which heavily influences the Governing Council’s decision
- Canadian labour force survey (jobs report), published monthly, which feeds into the Bank’s assessment of economic slack
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the January 2027 Bank of Canada decision announced?
The statement is released at 9:45 am ET, which is 2:45 pm in London, on Wednesday, January 27, 2027.
Will the Bank of Canada cut rates in January 2027?
This is not yet known. A consensus forecast has not been published this far in advance; it typically firms up only once fresh Canadian inflation and jobs data are released closer to the meeting.
What is the current Bank of Canada interest rate?
The most recently confirmed Bank of Canada decision held the target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, as of the July 29, 2026 announcement; later 2026 decisions, including December 2026, will have moved this figure closer to the January 2027 meeting.
When is the next Bank of Canada decision after January 2027?
The Bank of Canada publishes its fixed announcement dates roughly a year in advance on its official website; check the Bank of Canada rate decision hub for the next confirmed date.
Where can I watch the Bank of Canada press conference?
The Bank of Canada streams the press conference live on its official website and YouTube channel, with the Governor and Senior Deputy Governor taking questions from accredited journalists.