Canada CPI January 2027
January 18, 2027 @ 8:30 am - 9:30 am
Canada CPI January 2027
Next Canada CPI: Monday, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers December 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- Core CPI-trim/median 2.8% YoY
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
Updated
Statistics Canada publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2026 on Monday, January 18, 2027, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time). The report is the government’s official measure of inflation and covers price changes recorded across Canada during December 2026. Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
What is the Consumer Price Index?
The CPI tracks the average change over time in the prices Canadian households pay for a fixed basket of goods and services, including groceries, rent, mortgage interest, fuel, clothing and recreation. Statistics Canada collects prices from retailers and service providers across the country each month and weights them according to how much of a typical household budget each category represents. Shelter carries the largest weight at roughly 30%, followed by transportation at around 17%.
The headline figure is the year-over-year percentage change in the all-items index. Because energy and food prices can swing sharply from one month to the next, the Bank of Canada also watches “core” measures, including CPI-trim and CPI-median, which strip out the most volatile components to show the underlying trend. These core gauges are the ones the central bank leans on most heavily when setting interest rates.
Markets watch this release closely because it directly shapes expectations for the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. A hotter-than-expected print tends to push bond yields and the Canadian dollar higher, while a softer print can fuel bets on rate cuts, affecting everything from mortgage pricing to the loonie’s exchange rate against the US dollar, sterling and the euro.
When is the December CPI released?
Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the December 2026 CPI report on January 18, 2027, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time). The data is published on the agency’s official release schedule and appears on the StatCan website under “The Daily” at the same time each month. Canada’s CPI is typically released around the third week of the following month, so the January release date for December data fits the usual monthly pattern.
What is the consensus forecast?
As this page is being prepared well ahead of the release date, a consensus forecast has not yet been published for December 2026 CPI. Economist forecasts are usually compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg surveys in the days immediately before the release, and this page will be updated once that consensus becomes available.
The most recent confirmed reading available at the time of writing comes from November 2026 data. According to RBC Economics, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, eased to 2.8% year-over-year in November 2026, while shelter inflation cooled to 2.3% from 2.5% in October. In August 2026, the headline all-items CPI stood at 3.0% year-over-year, according to Trading Economics, which cited Statistics Canada data.
| Measure | Prior (November 2026) | Consensus (December 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (year-over-year) | Not yet fully confirmed at time of writing | Not yet published |
| Core CPI-trim / CPI-median | 2.8% | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Bond yields and the Canadian dollar could rise as traders trim bets on further Bank of Canada rate cuts | Prices are rising faster than expected, which could keep borrowing costs higher for longer |
| In line with consensus | Muted market reaction, with the existing rate-path expectations largely intact | Inflation is behaving roughly as forecast, so the Bank of Canada’s current stance is unlikely to change quickly |
| Below consensus | The Canadian dollar could soften and short-term yields could fall as markets price in a higher chance of a rate cut | Price growth is slowing faster than expected, which could eventually feed through to cheaper borrowing |
These are possible market reactions described by analysts, not predictions of what will actually happen. As RBC Economics has noted, moderating core inflation measures could reduce the likelihood that the Bank of Canada needs further rate cuts in the near term.
Why does this release matter right now?
Through much of 2026, Canadian inflation has been shaped less by broad demand pressure and more by specific shocks. According to wealthnorth.ca, headline CPI rose to 3.0% in July 2026 after cooling to as low as 1.5% to 1.6% earlier in the year, with the reacceleration concentrated in energy and transportation costs linked to tariff pass-through and global oil supply disruption, rather than a broad-based surge across the whole basket. Grocery price inflation, by contrast, has continued to ease.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate at 2.25% from January 2026, according to wealthnorth.ca, as it weighed sticky headline inflation from energy and tariffs against core measures that have stayed closer to its 2% target. RBC Economics reported that in November 2026 roughly 54% of CPI components were growing faster than 3% on a three-month annualised basis, up slightly from 50% in October, a sign that price pressures had broadened somewhat even as the Bank’s preferred core gauges eased. Whether that broadening continues or fades will be a key question for the December data, and for how the Bank of Canada approaches its rate decisions in early 2027.
Recent Canada CPI readings
| Month | Headline CPI (year-over-year) |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 2.8% |
| July 2026 | 3.0% |
| August 2026 | 3.0% |
Figures sourced from Trading Economics, citing Statistics Canada. Later 2026 months are not included here because a verified headline figure could not be confirmed at the time of writing.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and loans: The Bank of Canada uses CPI to help decide its overnight rate, which feeds directly into variable mortgage rates and lines of credit. If inflation runs hotter than expected, homeowners renewing a variable-rate mortgage could face a longer wait for cheaper borrowing. If it runs cooler, the case for further rate cuts strengthens.
Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) tend to track the overnight rate. A cooler inflation print that supports rate cuts could mean lower returns on cash savings over time.
Jobs and wages: Persistent inflation, especially in essentials like food and shelter, erodes the real value of wages unless pay rises keep pace. Businesses also watch CPI when planning wage negotiations and cost-of-living adjustments.
Prices: The report shows directly whether everyday costs, from groceries to fuel to rent, are rising faster or slower than a year earlier, which matters for household budgeting regardless of what the Bank of Canada does next.
Investments, pensions and currencies: Canadian bond yields and the Canadian dollar often move on CPI surprises. A stronger loonie can make imports cheaper but hurt exporters, while a weaker one has the opposite effect. Investors in Canadian equities, bonds and pension funds with Canadian exposure, including those in the UK, Europe and Asia, may see modest currency and yield adjustments around the release, even though the report is domestically focused.
Related events
- Previous release: Canada CPI, December 2026 data (released mid-January 2027)
- Full schedule and background: Canada CPI hub page
- Bank of Canada interest rate decisions, which respond directly to CPI trends
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Canada CPI report released?
Statistics Canada releases the CPI report at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London, on the scheduled date.
How do I read the headline versus core inflation figures?
The headline figure covers the full basket of goods and services, while core measures like CPI-trim and CPI-median strip out volatile items such as fuel and some food prices to show the underlying trend the Bank of Canada watches most closely.
How does this report affect Bank of Canada interest rate decisions?
Persistently high inflation, particularly in the core measures, makes the Bank of Canada less likely to cut rates, while a sustained slowdown in core inflation increases the chances of a rate cut at future decisions.
Where can I find the official CPI release?
The data is published by Statistics Canada in “The Daily” on its official release schedule page, with detailed tables available through its data portal.
When is the next Canada CPI release after this one?
Statistics Canada typically releases CPI monthly, roughly three weeks after the end of the reference month, so the January 2027 CPI data would normally be released in mid-February 2027.