China Caixin Manufacturing PMI January 2027
January 3, 2027 @ 8:45 pm - 9:45 pm
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI January 2027
Next China Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Monday, at 9:45 am CST (8:45 pm ET, 1:45 am London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 51.5
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Updated
The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December 2026 is scheduled for release on Monday, January 4, 2027 at 9:45 am China Standard Time, which is 8:45 pm ET on January 3 in the United States and 1:45 am on January 4 in London. The survey is compiled by S&P Global and published under licence for Caixin Media, and it covers manufacturing activity in China during December 2026. Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
What is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI?
The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 500 small and medium-sized manufacturing firms across China. Respondents are asked whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchased goods rose, fell or stayed the same compared with the previous month. Their answers are weighted and combined into a single index number.
A reading above 50 signals that manufacturing activity is expanding compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The distance from 50 shows the pace of change, so a move from 50.9 to 52.0 points to a meaningfully quicker expansion rather than just continued growth at the same rate.
Markets watch this release closely because China is the world’s largest manufacturing economy and a major supplier of goods to Europe, the United States and the rest of Asia. Unlike the official government PMI, which leans towards large, state-linked companies, the Caixin survey is weighted towards smaller, export-oriented, privately owned businesses, so it often captures a different part of the economy and can diverge from the official figure.
When is the December Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The publisher has not yet formally confirmed this specific date. S&P Global typically releases the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on the first business day of the following month, so the December 2026 report is expected on January 4, 2027 at 9:45 am China Standard Time (8:45 pm ET, 1:45 am London). The data is published on the S&P Global release calendar and reported by Caixin Media.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the December 2026 reading has not yet been published. Forecasts for this release typically appear in Reuters and Bloomberg economist polls in the days immediately before publication.
The most recently confirmed reading available at the time of writing was for August 2026, when the headline index (reported under the S&P Global “RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI” branding that replaced the Caixin name in the survey series from mid-2026) came in at 51.5, up from 50.9 in July 2026 and above the 51.0 median forecast in a Reuters poll ahead of that release.
| Measure | Prior (July 2026) | Latest confirmed (August 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Headline manufacturing PMI | 50.9 | 51.5 |
| New export orders | Modest growth | Stronger growth, cited as main driver |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Seen as a sign Chinese factory demand is strengthening, which analysts at Capital Economics have described as supportive for the yuan and regional trade-linked currencies | Chinese factories are getting busier and taking on more orders than expected, which can be good news for global suppliers and shippers |
| In line with consensus | Limited market reaction, as the print confirms the recent trend rather than changing it | Chinese manufacturing is growing or shrinking at roughly the pace economists already expected, so little changes for investors |
| Below consensus | Could be read as a sign that domestic demand or export orders are weakening, prompting talk of further stimulus, according to commentary from economists tracking the series | Factories are struggling more than expected, which can weigh on commodity prices and currencies tied to Chinese trade |
Why does this release matter right now?
Through 2026 the Caixin (later RatingDog) series has shown an uneven recovery, with readings ranging from around 50.8 to 52.2 across the year according to data compiled by TrendForce’s DataTrack. Commentary accompanying the March 2026 release noted that manufacturers were absorbing higher input costs linked to Middle East tensions and global energy prices, while later prints pointed to stronger export orders as the main support for growth. Analysts have flagged an “unbalanced recovery structure” in China, with manufacturing outperforming the services sector, and have said further fiscal support targeting housing or domestic demand would be a key factor in whether the expansion continues.
Investors and policymakers use this release, alongside the official government PMI, to judge whether Beijing’s stimulus measures are working and whether global supply chains reliant on Chinese factories are speeding up or slowing down.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and rates: a stronger-than-expected Chinese PMI can add to global growth optimism, which sometimes nudges government bond yields higher and, with them, some fixed mortgage rates in the UK, US and eurozone.
- Savings: the reading itself rarely moves domestic savings rates directly, but it can shift expectations for central bank policy if it changes the broader inflation and growth picture.
- Jobs and wages: firms in Europe and Asia that export machinery, components or raw materials to China can see demand rise or fall depending on the trend in this index, which can affect hiring in those sectors.
- Prices: stronger Chinese factory activity can lift demand for commodities such as metals and energy, which can feed into prices for goods elsewhere in the world.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: Asian and emerging market equity funds, along with the Australian dollar and other currencies linked to Chinese trade, often react to this release, and it can influence the yuan against the dollar, pound and euro.
Related events
- Previous release: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, December 2026
- China’s official (government) Manufacturing PMI, released a day or two earlier each month by the National Bureau of Statistics
- China Caixin Services and Composite PMI, published later in the same week
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December 2026 released?
It is expected at 9:45 am China Standard Time on January 4, 2027, which is 8:45 pm ET on January 3 and 1:45 am in London on January 4.
How do I read the Caixin Manufacturing PMI number?
A reading above 50 signals expansion in factory activity compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction, with the distance from 50 indicating the pace of change.
Does this release affect interest rates outside China?
It does not set any interest rate directly, but it feeds into how investors judge Chinese and global growth, which can influence bond yields and, indirectly, some mortgage and savings rates elsewhere.
Where is the official release published?
It is published by S&P Global on its release calendar and reported by Caixin Media, with data also aggregated by providers such as Trading Economics.
When is the next Caixin Manufacturing PMI due after this one?
The next release, covering January 2027 data, is typically due on the first business day of February 2027.