UK CPI Inflation December 2026

The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2026 is due for release on Wednesday, December 16, 2026, at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET), published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This report covers price changes across the economy for November 2026 and is one of the most closely watched economic releases of the month for the Bank of England, the government and households alike. Full schedule and background: UK CPI report dates.

What is the UK Consumer Prices Index?

The CPI tracks the average change in prices paid by UK households for a fixed basket of goods and services, from food and fuel to rent, clothing and leisure. The ONS updates the basket each year to reflect how people actually spend money, then measures how much that basket would cost from one month to the next.

Two figures matter most. The headline rate includes everything in the basket, including volatile items such as petrol and fresh food. The core rate strips out food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, giving a steadier read on underlying price pressure in the economy. The Bank of England pays close attention to both, but leans more heavily on core and services inflation when judging whether price growth is likely to persist.

Markets watch CPI because it feeds directly into the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions. A basis point is one hundredth of one percentage point, and small shifts in the inflation data can move expectations for whether the Bank will raise, hold or cut its base rate, which in turn affects mortgage rates, savings returns and the value of the pound.

When is the November CPI report released?

The ONS will publish the November 2026 CPI report on Wednesday, December 16, 2026, at 7:00 am London time, which is 2:00 am ET. The release is published on the ONS release calendar and appears simultaneously on the ONS website as a full statistical bulletin with tables and a summary. The date follows the ONS’s standard practice of releasing CPI data around the middle of the month following the reference period, so the November data appears in mid-December.

What is the consensus forecast?

At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the November 2026 CPI reading had not yet been published. City economists and data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically issue their polled forecasts in the days immediately before the release, once more of the underlying data, including fuel prices and retailer pricing surveys, is available. Readers wanting the latest polled figure closer to December 16, 2026 should check the ONS release page or a financial data provider directly, since forecasts can shift materially in the final week before publication.

Similarly, the October 2026 CPI reading, which would serve as the prior figure for this release, was not independently verifiable from official sources at the time this preview was prepared. The table below will typically be completed with the prior month’s headline and core rates once the October data has been confirmed by the ONS.

What the result could mean

These are possibilities based on how markets have typically reacted to inflation surprises, not predictions of what will happen on December 16, 2026. Analysts such as those surveyed in Reuters polls generally caution that a single month’s data rarely changes the Bank of England’s policy path on its own.

Why does this release matter right now?

Inflation has been the central issue shaping Bank of England policy since 2022, when price growth spiked well above the Bank’s 2% target. Since then, the Monetary Policy Committee has balanced the need to bring inflation back to target against the risk of slowing growth and pushing up unemployment. Every CPI print is scrutinised for signs of whether services inflation and wage growth, both of which the Bank watches as gauges of domestic price pressure, are cooling in a durable way.

The November reading also lands close to the Bank of England’s final Monetary Policy Committee meeting of 2026, meaning it could be one of the last major data points policymakers see before setting rates into the new year. It will also be read alongside labour market and wage figures from the ONS, since persistent wage growth above the level consistent with 2% inflation tends to keep the Bank cautious about cutting rates too quickly.

What It Means for Your Money

• Mortgages and loans: If CPI comes in hotter than expected, expectations for Bank of England rate cuts can fade, which tends to keep fixed mortgage rates and other borrowing costs higher for longer. A cooler than expected reading can have the opposite effect, potentially feeding through to cheaper new fixed-rate mortgage deals over time.
• Savings: Higher inflation erodes the real value of cash sitting in savings accounts unless the interest rate paid keeps pace. Savers should compare their account rate with the CPI figure to judge whether their money is keeping up with the cost of living.
• Jobs and wages: Inflation data is often paired with pay negotiations. If prices are rising faster than wages, household budgets come under pressure, which is one reason the Bank of England watches wage growth alongside CPI.
• Investments and pensions: UK gilts (government bonds) and pension funds that hold them are sensitive to inflation surprises, since higher inflation can reduce the real return on fixed-income investments. Equity markets can also move on rate expectations tied to the data.
• The pound: Sterling often reacts to CPI surprises because they shift expectations for Bank of England policy relative to the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. A stronger pound makes imports cheaper and overseas holidays less expensive for UK travellers, while a weaker pound has the opposite effect and can add to imported inflation for UK households and businesses trading with Europe and Asia.

Related events

• The previous UK CPI release, covering October 2026 data, is available here: UK CPI Inflation November 2026.
• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decisions, which respond directly to CPI trends, are tracked on the site’s UK rate decision pages.
• UK labour market and average earnings data, published separately by the ONS, is often read alongside CPI to judge underlying inflation pressure.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time is the November 2026 UK CPI report released?

The ONS publishes the report at 7:00 am London time on December 16, 2026, which is 2:00 am ET.

Where can I find the official CPI release?

The full statistical bulletin is published on the ONS release calendar alongside downloadable tables and a plain-English summary.

How does CPI affect UK interest rates?

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses CPI, particularly the core and services measures, as a key input when deciding whether to raise, hold or cut the base rate, which in turn affects mortgage and savings rates across the country.

What is the difference between headline and core CPI?

Headline CPI includes all items in the basket, including volatile food and energy prices, while core CPI strips these out to show underlying price pressure that is less affected by short-term swings.

When is the next UK CPI report due?

The December 2026 CPI report, covering the final month of the year, is typically published by the ONS in mid-January 2027, following the same monthly release pattern.