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US ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2026
September 1 @ 10:00 am - 11:00 am
US ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2026
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: 54.6% (August 2026), below the 55.2 consensus and down from July's 55.6% (Tuesday, at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London)).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.
- Actual
- 54.6%
Full schedule and background: US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Updated
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 came in at 54.6%, below the 55.2% consensus forecast and down from July’s 55.6% reading, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s release on September 1, 2026.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 is scheduled for release on Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Because this date falls in the future relative to when this page was prepared, the exact release date is an estimate based on ISM’s usual pattern of publishing on the first business day of the month; the report covers manufacturing activity during August 2026. Full schedule and background on this indicator: US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
What is the ISM Manufacturing PMI?
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly survey-based indicator that measures the health of the US manufacturing sector. It is compiled by the Institute for Supply Management, a trade body that surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of manufacturing firms across the country each month.
The headline number is a diffusion index built from five equally weighted sub-components: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories. A reading above 50 means manufacturing activity is expanding compared with the previous month; a reading below 50 signals contraction. The distance from 50 indicates the pace of change, so a reading of 55 suggests faster expansion than 51.
Markets watch the ISM Manufacturing PMI closely because it is one of the earliest hard-data-adjacent readings available each month, arriving before official government figures such as factory orders or industrial production. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, use it as a real-time gauge of business conditions, and it often moves bond yields, the dollar and equity futures within minutes of release, particularly the new orders and prices paid sub-indices.
When is the September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI released?
The report is expected on Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 10:00 am Eastern Time, which is 3:00 pm in London. It is published by the Institute for Supply Management on its official website, ismworld.org, and is simultaneously distributed to newswires including Reuters and Bloomberg. Because ISM typically releases this report on the first business day of the month, and the exact publication calendar for late 2026 had not yet been formally confirmed at the time this page was prepared, the date above should be treated as an estimate rather than a locked date. Readers should check the ISM’s official release calendar closer to the time to confirm.
What is the consensus forecast?
As this page was prepared well ahead of the release, no consensus forecast from a Reuters or Bloomberg survey of economists had yet been published for the September 2026 report, and the prior month’s actual reading was not yet available either. Both figures are typically published in the days immediately before the release, so they should be checked again closer to September 1, 2026.
| Measure | Prior (July 2026 reading) | Consensus (August 2026 reading) |
|---|---|---|
| Headline PMI | Not yet published | Not yet published |
| New Orders Index | Not yet published | Not yet published |
When the figures do become available, the headline PMI and the new orders sub-index are usually the two numbers economists and traders focus on first, since new orders tend to lead the headline figure by a month or two.
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Could be read as a sign of resilient manufacturing demand, potentially supporting the dollar and reducing near-term expectations of interest rate cuts if inflation-related sub-indices such as prices paid also rise | Factories are busier than expected, which can be good for jobs and profits but may also keep price pressures elevated |
| In line with consensus | Likely to have a muted market reaction, since the outcome would already be priced into stocks, bonds and currencies | The manufacturing sector is performing broadly as expected, with no major surprises for policy or growth outlooks |
| Below consensus | May be interpreted as a sign of softening demand, which could increase bets on future interest rate cuts and weigh on the dollar, while sometimes lifting government bond prices | Factories are seeing weaker orders or output than hoped, which can be an early warning sign for hiring and wider economic growth |
These are illustrative possibilities rather than predictions. Actual market reactions depend on the wider macroeconomic backdrop at the time, including what the Federal Reserve has recently signalled about interest rates and how other data releases that week, such as the jobs report, are trending.
Why does this release matter right now?
Manufacturing accounts for a smaller share of US output than services, but the ISM Manufacturing PMI remains one of the most closely tracked business surveys because it is timely, covers the whole country, and has a long history that allows for comparison across economic cycles. The Federal Reserve pays attention to the survey’s employment and prices paid components in particular, since they can offer early clues on labour market tightness and cost pressures feeding into broader inflation.
Since manufacturing supply chains span the globe, the report is also watched outside the United States. A weaker than expected US manufacturing sector can be a signal for exporters in the UK, the eurozone and Asia that face demand from American factories and retailers, while a stronger reading can support commodity prices and currencies tied to industrial demand, such as the Australian dollar.
Because specific prior and consensus figures for this release were not available at the time of writing, readers should treat any discussion of “the current trend” with caution until the actual numbers for the months leading up to September 2026 are published on the ISM’s official site.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and borrowing rates: a surprisingly strong or weak PMI can shift expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which in turn influences US mortgage rates and, indirectly, global bond yields that feed into UK and European fixed mortgage pricing.
- Savings rates: if the data pushes traders to expect fewer or later interest rate cuts, savings account and money market fund rates in the US may stay higher for longer; the opposite is true if the data suggests a weakening economy.
- Jobs and wages: the employment sub-index within the PMI can hint at hiring intentions among manufacturers, which is relevant for anyone working in or supplying to industrial sectors, from the US Midwest to manufacturing hubs in Germany and East Asia.
- Investments and pensions: equity markets, particularly industrial and materials stocks, tend to react to surprises in this data, which can affect the value of pension funds and index-tracking investments held by ordinary savers.
- Currencies: a stronger than expected reading can support the US dollar against the pound and the euro, making US imports relatively cheaper for American consumers but potentially raising the cost of dollar-priced goods and travel for UK and European households.
Related events
- US ISM Services PMI, typically released a few days after the manufacturing report and covering the much larger services sector
- US nonfarm payrolls, the monthly jobs report that often follows within the same week and is watched alongside manufacturing employment trends
- Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, where policymakers weigh business survey data such as the ISM report alongside inflation and labour market figures
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI released?
It is expected at 10:00 am Eastern Time on September 1, 2026, which is 3:00 pm in London, though the date is an estimate pending confirmation on the ISM’s official calendar.
How do I read the ISM Manufacturing PMI number?
A reading above 50 indicates the manufacturing sector is expanding compared with the prior month, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction; the further from 50, the stronger the signal.
Does the ISM Manufacturing PMI affect interest rates?
It can influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy because officials watch the survey’s employment and prices paid components as early signals of labour market and inflation trends, though it is only one of many inputs into rate decisions.
Where can I find the official ISM Manufacturing PMI release?
The report is published directly on the Institute for Supply Management’s website, ismworld.org, and is also distributed through major financial news services.
When is the next ISM Manufacturing PMI released after this one?
ISM publishes the Manufacturing PMI monthly, so the following report, covering September 2026 activity, is typically released on the first business day of October 2026.
Results: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, August 2026
| Measure | Consensus | Actual | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Manufacturing PMI | 55.2% | 54.6% | 55.6% (July 2026) |
| New Orders Index | Not separately polled | 53.7% | 56.7% (July 2026) |
| Employment Index | 53.0% | 51.2% | 52.8% (July 2026) |
| Prices Paid Index | 70.5% | 71.1% | 71.1% (July 2026) |
The Institute for Supply Management reported that the headline Manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.6% in August 2026, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion but falling short of the 55.2% consensus compiled by economists and coming in below July’s 55.6% print, which had been the strongest reading since May 2022. Since any figure above 50% signals expansion, the sector kept growing, but at a slower pace than forecasters expected.
The slowdown was led by new orders, which fell to 53.7% from 56.7% in July, a three-point drop that ISM said reflected less optimistic demand sentiment among purchasing executives. The employment index also softened to 51.2%, missing the 53.0% consensus and down from 52.8% in July, pointing to more cautious hiring intentions at factories. Prices paid held at 71.1%, unchanged from July but above the 70.5% consensus, showing that input cost pressures did not ease even as growth momentum slowed.
This outcome landed closest to the “below consensus” scenario flagged in the preview: a softer than expected headline reading alongside firm price pressures, a combination that complicates the picture for anyone hoping for a clean signal on where the Federal Reserve’s next move might land. Full background on this series is available at US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Market Reaction
US stocks fell sharply on September 1, 2026, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,631.47 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 419 points to 52,766.88, according to market data reported the same day. The Nasdaq dropped 271 points, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped, as investors reacted to the softer ISM reading alongside a broader rise in Treasury yields, with the 10-year note trading close to 5%.
Currency markets were more muted: the dollar slipped modestly against major peers even as Treasury yields climbed, according to market commentary from ATFX, while gold eased toward two-week lows. Traders attributed part of the equity sell-off to the weaker manufacturing data combined with other pressures that day, including rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, so the ISM report was one contributor to the move rather than the sole cause. Rate futures markets will now weigh whether the softer employment and new orders components strengthen the case for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts at upcoming meetings.
What this means for your money now
The softer new orders and employment components suggest US factory hiring may be cooling slightly, which is worth watching for anyone working in or supplying manufacturing supply chains in the US, UK, Europe or Asia. With price pressures still elevated, the report does not obviously strengthen the case for near-term interest rate cuts, so savers holding cash in higher-yielding accounts are unlikely to see an immediate shift, while mortgage borrowers should watch upcoming Treasury yield moves rather than this release alone.