FOMC Minutes October 2026

The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its September 15 to 16, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London time). The minutes are a detailed, non-verbatim account of the discussion that led to the committee’s decision on the federal funds rate, the Fed’s key overnight lending rate. Full schedule and background: FOMC Minutes.

Unlike the rate decision itself, which is announced immediately after the meeting, the minutes arrive roughly three weeks later. They do not contain a new policy decision. Instead, they show how individual members argued for their preferred outcome, how close any vote was, and how the committee is thinking about the next meeting, scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026.

What is the FOMC and what does it decide?

The Federal Open Market Committee is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy arm. Its job is to set the target range for the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks lend reserves to each other overnight, in pursuit of the Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. Decisions also guide the pace of the Fed’s balance sheet operations.

The committee has 12 voting members: the seven Federal Reserve Board governors in Washington, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who is permanent vice chair, and four of the remaining 11 regional Reserve Bank presidents on a rotating annual basis. All 19 policymakers, voters and non-voters alike, attend every meeting, debate policy and contribute to the projections published four times a year.

The FOMC holds eight scheduled meetings a year, roughly every six weeks, with the option to convene emergency meetings if conditions demand it.

When is the October 2026 minutes release?

The minutes from the September 15 to 16, 2026 meeting are released at 2:00 pm ET on October 7, 2026, three weeks after the meeting concluded, in line with the Fed’s usual publication schedule. They are posted on the Federal Reserve’s own website alongside the historical minutes archive.

Because September was one of the four meetings a year that include the Summary of Economic Projections, commonly called the dot plot, the minutes are likely to give more detail than usual on how members debated their individual rate forecasts for the rest of 2026 and into 2027, as well as their views on inflation and unemployment.

What to expect

Heading into the September meeting, the federal funds target range had stood at 3.50% to 3.75% since the Fed’s most recent adjustment, having been held at that level through the first half of 2026. The July meeting saw the committee hold rates again, but with three members dissenting in favour of a hike, according to CNBC’s coverage of the July decision. That split raised the odds, discussed by traders using tools such as the CME FedWatch tool, that September could bring the Fed’s first hike in years rather than another hold.

Because the brief for this page does not carry a confirmed outcome for the September 16 decision, readers should check the Federal Reserve’s official statement for that meeting to see whether the range was held, raised or lowered. The minutes released on October 7 will explain the reasoning in detail, including how many members favoured each option and why.

Market impact scenarios

What will the minutes signal?

Analysts will scan the minutes for three things. First, the balance of opinion on the size and direction of any near-term rate move, and whether the debate that produced three dissents in July persisted into September. Second, how members characterised inflation risks, particularly any references to tariffs, energy prices or the conflict in the Middle East, a theme Fed Chair Kevin Warsh raised in his July press conference. Third, any discussion of the pace of balance sheet runoff, known as quantitative tightening, and whether officials flagged concerns about money market liquidity.

Because September is a projections meeting, the minutes typically include a fuller account of how the dot plot, the anonymous chart of each member’s own rate forecast, was constructed, and where disagreements lay about the path into 2027.

What It Means for Your Money

The Fed’s rate decisions and its minutes both feed into how expensive it is to borrow. If the minutes suggest the committee is leaning towards holding rates high or hiking further, mortgage rates, both in the US and indirectly through global bond markets affecting UK and eurozone lenders, could stay elevated or rise. Adjustable-rate mortgages and credit card rates in the US are most directly tied to the federal funds rate.

Savers with US dollar deposit accounts benefit when rates stay higher for longer, though a hawkish tone can also unsettle stock markets, affecting pension pots and investment portfolios that hold US equities. A stronger dollar, often the market reaction to hawkish minutes, makes imports cheaper for Americans but can squeeze companies and consumers in the UK, Europe and Asia that buy in dollars, including energy and commodities. A weaker dollar, following dovish minutes, tends to support the pound and the euro and can ease imported inflation pressures abroad.

For anyone with a mortgage due for renewal, a loan application in progress, or a pension invested in global funds, the minutes are worth watching not because they set policy directly, but because they shape expectations for the Fed’s next move on October 27 to 28, 2026, which does set policy.

Related events

• The next scheduled FOMC rate decision is due on October 28, 2026.
• US inflation data (CPI) released ahead of the October meeting will factor heavily into the committee’s discussion.
• The non-farm payrolls report, covering the US labour market, is another key release the Fed weighs before its next decision.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time are the October 2026 FOMC minutes released?

The minutes are published at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London time) on October 7, 2026, on the Federal Reserve’s website.

Do the minutes contain a new interest rate decision?

No. The minutes are a detailed account of the discussion behind the decision already announced at the September 15 to 16, 2026 meeting; they do not change policy.

What is the current federal funds rate?

Heading into the September 2026 meeting, the target range stood at 3.50% to 3.75%. Readers should check the Fed’s official statement from September 16, 2026 for the confirmed rate after that meeting.

When is the next FOMC meeting?

The next scheduled meeting runs from October 27 to 28, 2026, with the rate decision announced at 2:00 pm ET on October 28.

Where can I read the minutes in full?

The full text is published on the Federal Reserve’s own website, federalreserve.gov, under monetary policy releases.