Japan GDP December 2026
December 7 @ 6:50 pm - 7:50 pm
Japan GDP December 2026
Next Japan GDP: Tuesday, at 8:50 am JST (6:50 pm ET, 11:50 pm London). Covers Q3 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- Q2 2026: +1.1% annualized
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: Japan GDP.
Updated
Japan’s second preliminary (revised) gross domestic product report for the July to September 2026 quarter is due on Tuesday, December 8, 2026, at 8:50 am Japan Standard Time, which is 6:50 pm ET on Monday, December 7 and 11:50 pm in London the same evening. The figures are published by Japan’s Cabinet Office through its Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). Full schedule and background: Japan GDP.
What is Japan’s GDP report?
Gross domestic product measures the total value of goods and services produced in an economy over a set period. Japan’s Cabinet Office publishes GDP for each quarter twice: a “first preliminary” estimate roughly six weeks after the quarter ends, followed by this “second preliminary” release around six weeks later, once more complete data on capital spending and inventories become available.
The headline figures are usually quoted three ways: the quarter-on-quarter change, an annualized rate (what the quarterly change would look like if repeated for four quarters), and the year-on-year change. Analysts also watch the underlying components, private consumption, business investment, government spending and net trade (exports minus imports), because these show where growth or weakness is coming from.
Markets watch Japanese GDP closely because it feeds directly into the Bank of Japan’s policy decisions on interest rates and its assessment of whether wage and price growth is durable enough to justify further tightening.
When is the December GDP report released?
The Cabinet Office is scheduled to release the second preliminary estimate for the July to September 2026 quarter on December 8, 2026 at 8:50 am local time, published on the ESRI Quarterly Estimates of GDP page. This revised release covers the same July to September quarter as the first preliminary estimate published in mid-November 2026, but incorporates updated corporate and public investment data that were not available for the earlier reading.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the December 8, 2026 release has not yet been published, as economist surveys for Japanese GDP revisions are typically compiled only in the days immediately before the release. Once the first preliminary estimate for Q3 2026 is published in mid-November 2026, that figure becomes the effective “prior” for this revision, and analysts build their forecasts around expected changes to capital expenditure and inventory data.
For context, Japan’s most recently confirmed reading at the time of writing is the second preliminary estimate for Q2 2026 (April to June), which showed annualized growth of 1.1%, easing from an upwardly revised 1.8% (originally 2.1%) in Q1 2026, according to Trading Economics.
| Measure | Prior (Q1 2026, revised) | Q2 2026 (revised) |
|---|---|---|
| GDP, annualized q/q | +1.8% | +1.1% |
| GDP, quarter-on-quarter | +0.5% | +0.3% |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Revised upward from the first preliminary | Yen could firm modestly and Japanese government bond yields may edge higher, as stronger growth supports the case for further Bank of Japan rate normalisation | The economy grew more than first thought, usually because business investment or exports were revised up |
| In line with the first preliminary estimate | Limited market reaction, since the figure confirms the picture already priced in after the mid-November release | The initial reading holds up once fuller data are added |
| Revised downward, or a contraction confirmed | Yen could soften and expectations for near-term Bank of Japan tightening may be pushed back, according to commentary from economists tracked by TradingView on prior GDP revisions | The economy grew less than first estimated, often reflecting weaker capital spending or public investment than initially recorded |
These are possibilities drawn from how markets have reacted to past Japanese GDP revisions, not predictions of what will happen on December 8, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of Japan has been gradually moving away from decades of near-zero interest rates, and GDP data feed directly into its judgement on how much slack remains in the economy. Growth slowed from an annualized 1.8% in the first quarter of 2026 to 1.1% in the second, with Trading Economics noting that private consumption made no contribution to growth in Q2 amid rising living costs, while capital spending weakened further.
Exports have also been under pressure from US tariff policy through 2026, a theme that analysts expect to continue weighing on the July to September quarter. Any downward revision to business investment or public spending in this release would reinforce concerns that momentum is fading heading into 2027, which matters for how quickly, or slowly, the Bank of Japan can continue raising rates.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and borrowing in Japan: weaker GDP revisions could slow the pace of Bank of Japan rate rises, keeping Japanese mortgage and loan rates lower for longer; stronger data could do the opposite.
- Savings: higher Japanese interest rates, if growth data support them, would gradually improve returns on yen deposits after years of near-zero rates.
- Jobs and wages: sustained GDP growth supports the wage negotiations that feed into Japan’s annual “shunto” spring wage round, which the Bank of Japan watches closely.
- Currencies: a stronger than expected reading tends to support the yen against the dollar and euro, which affects the cost of Japanese imports and the returns UK and European investors get on yen-denominated assets.
- Investments and pensions: Japanese equities and government bonds, widely held in global pension funds, can move on GDP surprises, and yen strength or weakness affects the sterling or dollar value of unhedged Japanese holdings.
Related events
- Previous release: Japan GDP, November 2026, the first preliminary estimate for the same July to September 2026 quarter.
- Bank of Japan policy decisions, which draw directly on GDP and wage data when setting interest rates.
- Japan’s monthly trade balance and industrial production releases, which feed into the net trade and output components of GDP.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is Japan’s December GDP report released?
It is released at 8:50 am Japan Standard Time on December 8, 2026, which is 6:50 pm ET on December 7 and 11:50 pm in London.
Why does Japan publish GDP twice for the same quarter?
The first preliminary estimate uses incomplete data to give a quick read, while the second preliminary estimate, due on December 8, 2026, incorporates fuller corporate and public investment figures that arrive later.
How does this GDP data affect Bank of Japan interest rate decisions?
The Bank of Japan uses GDP growth and its components, particularly consumption and investment, to judge how much room the economy has to absorb higher interest rates without weakening demand.
Where can I find the official Japanese GDP release?
The Cabinet Office publishes the data through its Economic and Social Research Institute at esri.cao.go.jp.
When is the next Japan GDP release after this one?
The next release is the first preliminary estimate for the October to December 2026 quarter, expected in mid-February 2027, though the exact date is confirmed closer to the time on the ESRI schedule.