China Caixin Manufacturing PMI December 2026
November 30 @ 8:45 pm - 9:45 pm
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI December 2026
Next China Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, at 9:45 am CST (8:45 pm ET, 1:45 am London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 50.9
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Updated
The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November 2026 is scheduled for release on December 1, 2026, at approximately 9:45 am China Standard Time, which is 8:45 pm ET on December 1 in the US and 1:45 am London time on December 2 in the UK. The figures are compiled by S&P Global on behalf of Chinese financial media group Caixin and cover business conditions in China’s manufacturing sector during November 2026. Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
What is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI?
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based gauge of activity at Chinese factories. Purchasing managers at more than 500 manufacturing companies are asked whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchased items have improved, worsened or stayed the same compared with the previous month. Those answers are combined into a single diffusion index: a reading above 50 signals expansion, a reading below 50 signals contraction, and 50 itself marks the boundary between growth and shrinkage.
Unlike the official manufacturing PMI produced by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which leans towards larger, state-owned firms, the Caixin survey focuses on small and medium-sized private manufacturers. That makes it a useful cross-check on the health of the private sector, which employs a large share of China’s workforce and is more exposed to swings in export demand.
Markets watch the release closely because China is the world’s second-largest economy and its largest consumer of industrial metals. A weakening Caixin PMI can flag softer demand for commodities, shipping and components sourced from Asia, Europe and the Americas, while a stronger reading can support risk appetite across global equity and currency markets.
When is the November Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The report is due on December 1, 2026, published by S&P Global and Caixin Insight Group on the Caixin website and through S&P Global’s PMI release channels. The Caixin manufacturing survey traditionally appears on the first business day of the month, immediately after China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI. As with most monthly indicator pages on this calendar, the exact release date shown here has not yet been formally confirmed by the publisher and is estimated from that established pattern; readers should check the official S&P Global release calendar nearer the time.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 Caixin Manufacturing PMI has not yet been published. Analyst estimates for this release typically emerge in the days immediately before publication, gathered by data providers such as Reuters and Trading Economics as part of their economic calendars.
The most recent confirmed print available at the time of writing was the September 2026 reading of 50.9, which had eased from 51.7 the previous month, according to TrendForce’s DataTrack service, which cited slower growth in production and new orders as the pace of China’s recovery cooled.
| Measure | Prior confirmed print | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 50.9 (September 2026) | Not yet published |
| Change from prior month | Down from 51.7 (August 2026) | Not applicable |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Read as a sign Chinese manufacturers are coping better with soft domestic demand, potentially lifting sentiment towards Asian equities and commodity-linked currencies | Factories reported more new orders or output than economists expected, suggesting the sector is holding up or improving |
| In line with consensus | Limited market reaction, since the number confirms the trend already priced in by investors | Manufacturing conditions changed roughly as expected, neither a relief nor a fresh worry |
| Below consensus | Could add to concerns about China’s growth momentum, an outcome commentators such as those at TrendForce have linked to sluggish domestic demand and calls for more infrastructure spending | Factories reported weaker conditions than forecast, which may renew pressure on Beijing to support the economy |
These are possible market reactions described by analysts, not predictions of how markets will actually move on the day.
Why does this release matter right now?
China’s manufacturing sector has spent much of 2026 hovering close to the 50 boom-or-bust line, with readings such as the September dip to 50.9 from 51.7 reflecting what TrendForce described as domestic demand dragging on the recovery even as the survey stayed in expansion territory. The official NBS PMI has periodically slipped below 50 during the same period, according to Investing.com’s economic calendar commentary, underlining a divergence between the private-sector Caixin survey and the state-focused official gauge.
Investors are watching whether Beijing’s infrastructure spending and stimulus measures feed through into stronger new orders, and whether export demand holds up given ongoing trade tensions. Any renewed weakness in the Caixin PMI would likely intensify calls, noted in recent commentary, for further policy support from Chinese authorities.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and borrowing costs: a weak Chinese PMI can pull down global bond yields as investors seek safety, which can feed through to slightly lower mortgage rates in the US, UK and eurozone, though the effect is usually modest and indirect.
- Savings: savers are unlikely to see a direct effect, but persistent weakness in Chinese manufacturing can weigh on the interest rate outlook of central banks whose economies are exposed to Chinese demand.
- Jobs and wages: workers in commodity exporting economies such as Australia, and in manufacturing supply chains across Asia and Europe, are more exposed to swings in Chinese factory demand than most.
- Prices: a stronger PMI can support commodity prices, including metals and energy, which can feed into the cost of goods and fuel for households worldwide.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: the Chinese yuan, Asian equity markets and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar tend to react most directly to this release, with knock-on effects for globally diversified pension funds.
Related events
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, November 2026
- China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI, usually released the same day
- China Caixin Services and Composite PMI, published a few days after the manufacturing survey
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The November 2026 report is expected around 9:45 am China Standard Time on December 1, 2026, which is 8:45 pm ET the same day and 1:45 am London time on December 2.
How should I read the PMI number?
A reading above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing activity compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction; the further from 50, the stronger the signal.
Does the Caixin PMI affect interest rate decisions?
It is not a policy tool itself, but persistent weakness or strength can influence how central banks and investors assess global growth risks, indirectly affecting bond yields and rate expectations.
Where can I find the official release?
The official figures are published by S&P Global and Caixin Insight Group, with release dates listed on S&P Global’s PMI release calendar.
When is the next Caixin Manufacturing PMI due?
The following report, covering December 2026, is typically released on the first business day of January 2027.