US Industrial Production October 2026
October 16 @ 9:15 am - 10:15 am
US Industrial Production October 2026
Next US Industrial Production: Friday, at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London). Covers September 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- +0.1% m/m (August 2026)
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: US Industrial Production.
Updated
The US Industrial Production report for September 2026 is released on Friday, October 16, 2026 at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London time) by the Federal Reserve Board. The report, formally called the G.17 statistical release, measures output from the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities sectors. Full schedule and background: US Industrial Production.
What is industrial production?
Industrial production is a monthly index that tracks the physical volume of goods produced by factories, mines and utilities across the United States. Unlike measures of spending or prices, it captures actual output, how many cars rolled off assembly lines, how much oil was pumped, how much electricity was generated, adjusted for seasonal patterns.
The Federal Reserve builds the index from a mix of physical unit data (tonnes of steel, barrels of oil) and deflated dollar values of shipments, then combines them into a single number benchmarked against a base year. A closely watched companion figure is capacity utilization, which shows what share of the country’s productive capacity is actually being used. Sustained low utilization can signal spare capacity and weak pricing pressure, while high utilization can hint at future inflation as factories strain to meet demand.
Markets watch industrial production because manufacturing, though a smaller share of the US economy than services, is highly cyclical and reacts quickly to changes in demand, interest rates and trade conditions. A run of weak readings often shows up in the labour market and corporate earnings before broader growth figures catch up.
When is the September industrial production report released?
The Federal Reserve Board publishes the report at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London time) on Friday, October 16, 2026. It appears on the Federal Reserve’s website as the G.17 release, alongside capacity utilization data. The release date follows the Federal Reserve’s standing schedule for the G.17 series, which is normally published in the middle of each month, roughly six weeks after the reference month ends.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the September 2026 reading has not yet been widely published by major polling services at the time of writing. Once economists surveyed by outlets such as Reuters or Bloomberg publish estimates closer to the release date, this will typically appear as a single monthly percentage change for the headline index and for manufacturing output.
The most recent published data, for August 2026, showed industrial production ticking up 0.1% on the month, after a 0.4% decrease in July 2026, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.17 release. Manufacturing output, the largest component, rose 0.2% in August after edging down 0.1% in July, with motor vehicle and parts production up 2.6% on the month.
| Measure | Prior (August 2026) | Consensus (September 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial production, m/m | +0.1% | Not yet published |
| Manufacturing output, m/m | +0.2% | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Read as a sign of resilient factory demand, which could support the case for the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady rather than cutting further | Factories produced more than expected, suggesting businesses and consumers are still buying goods at a healthy pace |
| In line with consensus | Likely to have limited market impact, treated as confirmation of the existing trend | Output grew roughly as expected, with no major surprise for policymakers or investors |
| Below consensus | Could be read as evidence of a cooling factory sector, adding to arguments for further rate cuts | Factories produced less than expected, which may point to softer demand or supply disruptions |
These are possible reactions, not predictions. Actual market moves depend on other data released the same week and on how the Federal Reserve is framing its outlook at the time.
Why does this release matter right now?
Industrial production has been uneven through 2026, with manufacturing output swinging between small monthly gains and losses as businesses adjust to tariff-related costs and shifting demand, according to the Federal Reserve Board. Oxford Economics has flagged that global industrial output growth is expected to slow in 2026 compared with 2025, citing “front-loaded production and tariff-related uncertainty” as reasons for the softer trajectory.
The Federal Reserve watches this series alongside employment and inflation data when setting interest rate policy, because a weakening factory sector can be an early sign of broader economic slowdown, while resilient output can support the case for holding rates higher for longer.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and loans: A weak industrial production print can add to expectations of interest rate cuts, which may eventually filter through to lower mortgage and loan rates in the US and, indirectly, influence global bond yields that affect UK and European mortgage pricing.
- Savings: If the data pushes the Federal Reserve toward cutting rates, savings account and fixed deposit yields in the US could fall over time, a pattern often watched closely by savers in the UK and eurozone too, since central banks tend to move in loosely related cycles.
- Jobs and wages: Manufacturing employment tends to track factory output closely, so a run of weak readings can be an early warning for factory job losses in the US, with knock-on effects for suppliers in Asia and Europe that export components to American manufacturers.
- Prices: Strong output growth without matching demand can ease price pressures on goods, while capacity constraints can do the opposite, feeding into the inflation picture that shapes central bank decisions worldwide.
- Investments, pensions and currencies: Industrial shares and broader stock indices often react to surprises in this data, and the US dollar can strengthen or weaken depending on whether the report shifts expectations for Federal Reserve policy, which in turn affects the value of the pound and the euro against the dollar.
Related events
- Previous release: US Industrial Production, August 2026 data
- US retail sales and manufacturing PMI reports, which are often published in the same week and provide a broader picture of factory and consumer demand
- Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which weigh industrial production alongside employment and inflation data
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the industrial production report released?
The Federal Reserve publishes the report at 9:15 am ET, which is 2:15 pm in London, on Friday, October 16, 2026.
How do I read the industrial production figure?
The headline figure is a month-on-month percentage change in the index, so a positive number means factories, mines and utilities produced more than the previous month, and a negative number means they produced less.
How does this data affect interest rates?
The Federal Reserve considers industrial production alongside employment and inflation data when setting interest rates, so persistently weak factory output can support the case for rate cuts, while strong output can support holding rates steady.
Where can I find the official release?
The official G.17 release is published on the Federal Reserve Board’s website.
When is the next industrial production report?
The Federal Reserve’s schedule shows the next G.17 release, covering October 2026 data, is due on November 17, 2026.