China GDP October 2026

China’s second-quarter 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) report is due on Monday, October 19, 2026, at 10:00 am local time in Beijing, which is 10:00 pm ET on Sunday, October 18, and 3:00 am in London on the Monday morning. The figures are published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the government body responsible for compiling the country’s official growth data. Full schedule and background: China GDP release dates.

What is China GDP?

Gross domestic product measures the total value of goods and services produced in China over a given period. The NBS publishes a preliminary, or “flash”, estimate for each quarter, expressed both as year-on-year growth (comparing the quarter with the same period a year earlier) and quarter-on-quarter growth (comparing it with the immediately preceding quarter, adjusted for seasonal patterns).

The headline figure is broken down by sector: the primary industry (agriculture), the secondary industry (manufacturing and construction) and the tertiary industry (services). Investors, policymakers and businesses use these sub-components to judge whether growth is being driven by exports and factories or by domestic consumption and services, which matters for everything from commodity demand to consumer spending forecasts.

Markets watch the release closely because China is the world’s second-largest economy and a major trading partner for the United States, the European Union and most of Asia. A weaker-than-expected reading can weigh on commodity prices, Asian equity markets and currencies of commodity-exporting nations such as Australia and Brazil, while a stronger reading can support sentiment in export-driven economies including Germany and South Korea.

When is the Q2 2026 GDP data released?

The NBS is scheduled to publish the data on October 19, 2026, a Monday, at 10:00 am China Standard Time. The release appears on the NBS Release Calendar and is issued simultaneously in Chinese and English on the bureau’s website, alongside supporting data on industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment for the same period.

Because Beijing is 12 to 13 hours ahead of the US east coast (depending on daylight saving time) and 7 to 8 hours ahead of London, the data lands late on the Sunday evening for US readers and in the very early hours of the London trading day, meaning Asian markets react first, followed by Europe, then the Americas.

What is the consensus forecast?

As of now, a consensus forecast for this specific release has not yet been published. Economist surveys for Chinese GDP, such as those run by Reuters and Bloomberg, are typically compiled in the days immediately before the release, so a median forecast should appear closer to October 19, 2026.

The most recent confirmed reading is first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 5.0% year on year, reported by the NBS on April 16, 2026, which the bureau said was 0.5 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of 2025, implying growth of roughly 4.5% in that earlier quarter.

What the result could mean

These are possibilities discussed by economists and market commentators, not predictions. Actual market moves depend on the wider context on the day, including US Federal Reserve policy expectations and any accompanying commentary from Chinese officials.

Why does this release matter right now?

China’s official annual growth target sits at around 5%, and 2026 data has shown a bumpy path toward that goal. The NBS reported that first-quarter 2026 GDP grew 5.0% year on year, an acceleration from the previous quarter, with the bureau crediting “innovation-driven and high-quality development” for the steadier momentum. Economists at Trivium China and other research houses have flagged a widening gap, sometimes described as a “K-shaped divergence”, between export-facing manufacturing and a property sector that remains under strain, according to reporting from Shanghai Metals Market.

Policymakers at the People’s Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance are watching the data for signs of whether existing stimulus, including infrastructure spending and support for consumption, is enough to offset weak property investment and cautious household spending. Any sign of slower growth tends to raise expectations of further monetary easing or fiscal support, while a stronger print can ease pressure for additional stimulus.

What It Means for Your Money

• Mortgages and rates: China’s growth trend feeds into global bond yields and central bank thinking, including at the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, so a surprise reading can nudge the direction of borrowing costs worldwide, though the link is indirect.
• Savings: Weaker Chinese demand can pull down commodity prices, which historically has helped cool inflation in Europe and the US, an effect that can eventually feed through to how quickly savings rates fall if central banks respond by cutting rates.
• Jobs and wages: Manufacturers and commodity exporters in countries such as Germany, Australia and South Korea are sensitive to Chinese demand, so a sustained slowdown can affect hiring and order books in those export-linked sectors.
• Prices: China is a major consumer of oil, metals and food commodities, so unexpectedly strong or weak growth can move global prices for goods that eventually show up in household bills, from petrol to electronics.
• Investments and pensions: Many pension funds and index trackers hold exposure to Chinese equities, Asian markets and commodity producers, meaning the GDP print can move the value of diversified portfolios even for investors who have never bought a Chinese stock directly.
• Currencies: The pound, the euro and the dollar can all see short-term moves against the Chinese yuan and against commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar depending on how the data compares with expectations.

Related events

• China’s monthly activity data, including industrial production and retail sales, is usually released alongside the quarterly GDP figure by the NBS.
• The People’s Bank of China’s interest rate and reserve requirement decisions often follow shifts in the GDP trend.
• US and eurozone GDP releases in the same window provide a useful comparison for the global growth picture.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time does the China GDP report come out?

The NBS is scheduled to publish the data at 10:00 am China Standard Time on October 19, 2026, which is 10:00 pm ET on the preceding Sunday and 3:00 am in London on the Monday.

How do I read the headline GDP number?

Focus on the year-on-year percentage change for the clearest sense of momentum, and check the quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted figure for a read on the most recent three months alone.

Does China GDP affect interest rates in the US or Europe?

Not directly, but persistently weak or strong Chinese growth can influence global inflation and commodity prices, which central banks including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank take into account when setting policy.

Where can I find the official release?

The data is published on the National Bureau of Statistics of China website in both Chinese and English.

When is the next China GDP release?

The NBS typically publishes quarterly GDP data around the middle of the month following the end of each quarter, so the next report would be expected in the corresponding window after this release, in line with the bureau’s published release calendar.