UK CPI Inflation September 2026
September 16 @ 2:00 am - 3:00 am
UK CPI Inflation September 2026
Next UK CPI Inflation: Wednesday, at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London). Covers August 2026 data.
- Consensus
- Not yet published
- Prior
- 2.9% headline CPI, 2.6% core CPI
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: UK CPI Inflation.
Updated
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August 2026 on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time, 2:00 am ET). The release is the single most important UK inflation reading of the month and lands one day before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is next scheduled to meet. Full background and the release schedule are on the UK CPI Inflation hub.
What is the UK CPI report?
The Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices paid by UK households for a fixed basket of goods and services, from groceries and fuel to rent, clothing and haircuts. The ONS collects tens of thousands of prices each month from shops, websites and service providers, weights them by how much a typical household spends on each category, and calculates how much that basket has risen or fallen compared with the same month a year earlier (the “12-month rate”, commonly called the annual inflation rate).
Alongside headline CPI, the ONS publishes core CPI, which strips out the most volatile items, energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, to show the underlying trend in prices. It also breaks the data into goods inflation and services inflation. The Bank of England watches services inflation particularly closely because it tends to move with domestic wage growth and is harder to shift with interest rates than volatile energy or food prices.
Markets watch CPI because it is the main gauge the Bank of England uses to judge whether interest rates need to rise, fall or hold steady. A hotter than expected reading tends to push up UK gilt yields and the pound, on the view that rates will stay higher for longer, while a cooler reading can do the opposite.
When is the August 2026 CPI report released?
The ONS will publish the Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026 bulletin on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time, which is 2:00 am ET). The bulletin is released on the ONS website and covers price changes recorded during August 2026. The ONS normally issues CPI data around the middle of each month for the previous month, and no change to this pattern has been flagged for the August release.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 CPI report has not yet been published. City economists and data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically publish their median forecasts in the days immediately before a release, once August’s energy price moves and other inputs are clearer. Check back closer to September 16, 2026 for an updated forecast.
The most recent published reading is for July 2026. Headline CPI rose to 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6% in June, according to the ONS. That increase was the first rise in the annual rate since March 2026 and was driven largely by a jump in gas and electricity prices following an Ofgem price cap increase on July 1. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, held at 2.6% in July, unchanged from June, while services inflation eased slightly to 3.4% from 3.6%.
| Measure | Prior (July 2026) | Consensus (August 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (annual) | 2.9% | Not yet published |
| Core CPI (annual) | 2.6% | Not yet published |
Recent UK CPI readings
| Month | Headline CPI (annual) | Core CPI (annual) |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| March 2026 | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| April 2026 | 2.8% | 2.5% |
| May 2026 | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| June 2026 | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| July 2026 | 2.9% | 2.6% |
Source: ONS Consumer price inflation bulletins, February to July 2026.
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Gilt yields and the pound could rise as traders price a longer wait for interest rate cuts, or even a renewed chance of a rate rise | Prices are climbing faster than expected, which squeezes household budgets and makes the Bank of England more cautious about cutting borrowing costs |
| In line with consensus | A limited market reaction is likely, since the number would simply confirm what investors already expect | Inflation is behaving broadly as forecast, so mortgage rates and savings rates are unlikely to move sharply on the data alone |
| Below consensus | Gilt yields and the pound could fall as markets bring forward expectations for interest rate cuts | Price pressure is easing faster than expected, which could eventually feed through to cheaper borrowing, though not immediately |
These are possibilities based on how markets have historically reacted to inflation surprises, not predictions of what will happen on September 16, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
UK inflation has been drifting away from the Bank of England’s 2% target rather than towards it. After falling to a 15-month low of 2.6% in June 2026, headline CPI rose to 2.9% in July, and the Bank has projected inflation could peak near 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to commentary reported by Babypips. A second increase to the Ofgem household energy price cap is expected in October 2026, which could add further upward pressure to the readings that follow the August data.
The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% at its July 30, 2026 meeting, but the vote was split, with three of the nine members pushing for an immediate rise to 4.0% because of concerns that higher energy costs could spread into wider prices, according to the same reporting. The committee’s next scheduled decision falls on September 17, 2026, the day after this CPI release, so the August print will be one of the last major data points policymakers see before that vote. HM Treasury’s August 2026 forecast round, cited by the Building Cost Information Service, pencilled in CPI inflation averaging 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 before easing back towards target through 2027.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and borrowing: If inflation surprises to the upside, lenders may hold fixed mortgage rates higher for longer, since money markets would price a slower path of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. A softer print could feed through to slightly cheaper new fixed-rate deals over time, though rarely overnight.
Savings: Higher than expected inflation erodes the real value of cash sitting in savings accounts unless the interest rate paid keeps pace. Savers comparing accounts should check whether their rate beats the latest CPI figure, not just the interest rate itself.
Jobs and wages: The Bank of England watches whether pay growth is running ahead of or behind inflation. If prices rise faster than wages, household spending power falls even if pay packets are growing in cash terms.
Prices in everyday life: The report explains why a weekly shop, energy bill or bus fare feels more or less expensive than a year ago. Energy costs have been the largest single driver of the recent increase in UK inflation.
Investments, pensions and currencies: UK gilts, the FTSE 100 and the pound can all move on the data, with knock-on effects for pension funds holding UK bonds. A stronger or weaker pound also changes the cost of imports for UK shoppers and affects how far sterling stretches for anyone travelling to the eurozone or the United States. Investors in Europe and Asia watch UK inflation partly because it shapes expectations for other central banks navigating similar energy-driven price pressures.
Related events
- Bank of England MPC interest rate decision, scheduled for September 17, 2026, the day after this CPI release.
- UK labour market and average earnings statistics, published monthly by the ONS alongside CPI as part of the same data cycle.
- US CPI report, published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which shapes the global inflation backdrop alongside the UK figures.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the August 2026 UK CPI report released?
The ONS publishes the report at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time) on September 16, 2026, which is 2:00 am ET.
How should I read the headline CPI figure?
The headline figure shows how much prices for a typical household basket have risen over the past 12 months. A higher number means the cost of living is rising faster; a lower number means it is rising more slowly, not that prices are falling outright unless the figure turns negative.
How does the CPI report affect UK interest rates?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses CPI data as one of its main inputs when deciding whether to raise, cut or hold Bank Rate, currently held at 3.75% as of the July 30, 2026 decision. A CPI reading that runs hotter than the Bank expects can reduce the likelihood of a near-term rate cut.
Where can I find the official release?
The bulletin is published on the ONS release calendar and in the Consumer price inflation series on the ONS website.
When is the next UK CPI report after this one?
The ONS publishes CPI data monthly, so the September 2026 report covering that month’s prices is expected in mid-October 2026, following the usual publication pattern.