US Industrial Production November 2026
November 17 @ 9:15 am - 10:15 am
US Industrial Production November 2026
Next US Industrial Production: Tuesday, at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London). Covers October 2026 data.
- Consensus
- ,
- Prior
- Capacity utilization 76.3%
- Actual
- Pending
Full schedule and background: US Industrial Production.
Updated
US Industrial Production for October 2026 is released on Tuesday, November 17, 2026 at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London time) by the Federal Reserve Board. The report, formally called the G.17 statistical release, covers factory, mining and utility output for October 2026. Full schedule and background: US Industrial Production.
What is industrial production?
Industrial production is a monthly index that measures the physical output of factories, mines and electric and gas utilities across the United States. Rather than counting dollars spent, it tracks the actual volume of goods and energy produced, from cars and machinery to steel, chemicals and electricity. Because it strips out price changes, economists treat it as a cleaner read on the health of the “real” economy than sales figures that can be distorted by inflation.
The Federal Reserve Board calculates the index using data from government agencies, trade associations and private surveys, weighting each industry by its share of total output. Alongside industrial production, the same release publishes capacity utilization, which shows what proportion of the country’s factories, mines and utilities are actually being used. A rising utilization rate can signal that businesses are running close to their limits, which sometimes precedes higher prices or new investment in capacity.
Markets watch this release because manufacturing and mining, together with construction, drive much of the swing in the business cycle. A run of weak industrial production readings often points to a slowing economy or a manufacturing recession, while strong readings can support the case for economic resilience, which feeds into how investors price interest rate expectations.
When is the October industrial production report released?
The Federal Reserve publishes the October 2026 industrial production and capacity utilization figures on Tuesday, November 17, 2026 at 9:15 am ET, which is 2:15 pm in London. The data is released on the Federal Reserve Board’s website as the G.17 statistical release, alongside detailed tables covering manufacturing, mining, utilities and capacity utilization by industry group. This date follows the Fed’s published 2026 release calendar and is not an estimate.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the October 2026 reading had not been clearly published by a major polling provider such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Readers should check a live economic calendar closer to release day, since forecasts for this indicator are typically only firmed up in the days before publication.
The most recently confirmed reading available from the Federal Reserve’s own data showed industrial production up 1.1 percent year-on-year as of July 2026, according to Trading Economics, while capacity utilization had stood at 76.3 percent in an earlier Fed release, a rate the Board noted was “3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972 to 2024) average,” according to the Federal Reserve Board. These figures give a sense of the recent trend rather than a firm prior for the specific October print.
| Measure | Prior | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial production (m/m) | Not yet confirmed for September 2026 | Not yet published |
| Capacity utilization | 76.3% (most recent confirmed Fed figure) | Not yet published |
What the result could mean
| Scenario | Likely market read | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Above consensus | Could be read as a sign of economic resilience, potentially reducing the odds markets attach to near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, based on how traders have reacted to stronger data in prior cycles | Factories and mines produced more than expected, suggesting demand held up better than feared |
| In line | Likely a limited market reaction, since the figure would confirm the trend already priced in by investors | Output grew or fell roughly as expected, with no major change to the economic outlook |
| Below consensus | Could add to concerns about a manufacturing slowdown, a theme analysts have flagged repeatedly through 2026, and may support the case for a more dovish (rate-cut-friendly) Fed stance | Production fell short, which can point to weaker orders, high borrowing costs, or softer demand from abroad |
These are possibilities based on how markets have historically responded to industrial data surprises, not predictions of what will happen on November 17, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
Manufacturing has been a focal point for the Federal Reserve through 2026 as policymakers weigh a slowing labour market against stubborn services inflation. Capacity utilization has run below its long-run average for an extended period, a pattern the Fed itself has highlighted, which suggests spare capacity remains in the system rather than the kind of tightness that typically stokes inflation. Recent monthly prints have been mixed, with periods of modest growth followed by soft patches, reflecting uneven demand for goods both at home and from export markets in Europe and Asia.
The Fed’s own G.17 release also flagged unusual timing disruptions during 2025 and 2026, including delayed publication of some months’ data and a scheduled annual benchmark revision, both of which mean analysts are treating month-to-month comparisons with extra caution this year. Investors are also watching how a strong US dollar and shifting trade conditions are affecting export-heavy manufacturers, since a weaker global backdrop can weigh on US factory output even when domestic demand holds up.
What It Means for Your Money
- Mortgages and borrowing: A weak industrial production report can nudge the Federal Reserve toward cutting interest rates sooner, which over time can filter through to lower mortgage and loan rates, though the connection is indirect and takes months to show up.
- Savings: If the data supports a rate-cut path, savings account and money market yields in the US could gradually decline, a trend savers in the UK and eurozone also watch since central banks often move in loosely related cycles.
- Jobs and wages: Manufacturing output trends often lead factory employment. A sustained slowdown can eventually mean fewer new manufacturing jobs or slower wage growth in industrial regions.
- Investments and pensions: Industrial and manufacturing-heavy stocks, along with sectors like materials and energy, tend to react most directly to this data. Pension funds with exposure to US equities can see modest swings on release day.
- Currencies: A surprise in either direction can move the US dollar against the pound and euro, since traders adjust their expectations for US interest rates. A weaker dollar can make imports cheaper for US consumers but can also affect returns for UK and European investors holding US assets.
Related events
- Previous report: US Industrial Production, September 2026 data
- Full series page: US Industrial Production hub, with historical readings and the full release calendar
- Related US data to watch: retail sales, the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, all of which help explain swings in factory and mining output
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the October 2026 industrial production report released?
The Federal Reserve Board releases the data at 9:15 am ET on November 17, 2026, which is 2:15 pm in London.
How should I read the industrial production figure?
A positive monthly reading means factories, mines and utilities produced more than the previous month, while a negative reading means output fell. Economists also watch the capacity utilization rate alongside it for a fuller picture of slack in the economy.
How does this data affect interest rates?
The Federal Reserve considers industrial output as one part of its broader assessment of economic activity. Persistently weak readings can support arguments for lower interest rates, while strong readings can reduce the urgency for rate cuts, though this data alone rarely drives a Fed decision.
Where can I find the official release?
The Federal Reserve Board publishes the G.17 statistical release, including industrial production and capacity utilization data, on its official website at federalreserve.gov.
When is the next industrial production report?
The Federal Reserve’s published 2026 schedule lists the next release, covering November 2026 data, for December 16, 2026.