Results: Bank of Japan Rate Decision April 2026

The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% on April 28, 2026, in a 6-3 vote. The three dissenting members proposed raising the rate to 1.0% immediately, citing upside risks to inflation from Middle East-driven energy prices. The split was the most divided policy board decision under Governor Kazuo Ueda. The BoJ also revised its economic projections significantly: the fiscal year 2026 growth forecast was cut to 0.5% from 1.0%, and the core CPI inflation forecast was raised to 2.8% from 1.9%, reflecting the persistence of elevated energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. The decision was confirmed in the Bank of Japan’s official monetary policy statement published on April 28, 2026.

Market Reaction

The yen strengthened modestly following the decision, with USD/JPY retreating below the 159.00 level as the hawkish tone of the three dissenters signalled growing pressure within the policy board to tighten. Analysts noted the move was unlikely to reverse the broader bearish yen trend given continued dollar strength from the geopolitical environment. The Nikkei 225 edged lower on the session, retracing some of the index’s recent gains following the announcement.

Key Takeaways From the Statement

The BoJ’s communications made clear the hold was conditional rather than a settled position. One board member stated publicly it was “quite possible” the bank would raise the policy rate at the next meeting, pointing to a potential June 2026 hike. The sharp upward revision to the core inflation forecast, from 1.9% to 2.8%, reflects the Governing Council’s view that energy-driven inflation is proving more persistent than earlier projections assumed. With three of nine board members dissenting in favour of an immediate increase, the internal balance has shifted materially, and a move to 1.0% at the June 2026 meeting is now widely anticipated in markets.