China GDP: 2026 Schedule, Dates and What to Expect

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) report is the single most watched piece of economic data outside the United States. It is compiled and published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), released once a quarter, and it tells the world how fast the second largest economy is growing. The next release covers the third quarter of 2026 and is scheduled for Monday, October 19, 2026 at 10:00 am China Standard Time, which is 10:00 pm ET on Sunday, October 18 and 3:00 am in London on October 19. Because Beijing is 12 hours ahead of New York, the numbers land while Wall Street is closed and Asian markets are already trading.

This page is the permanent home for the series: every confirmed release date, the historical run of quarterly growth rates, how the figures are put together, and what they mean for savers, borrowers and investors well beyond China. You can subscribe to the ICS or Google Calendar feed on this page to have each release drop into your own diary automatically. For the equivalent American series, see our US GDP report hub.

2026 and 2027 schedule

The NBS publishes its statistical release calendar in advance, usually in late December for the year ahead. The table below lists the confirmed quarterly GDP releases known at the time of writing. All times are 10:00 am China Standard Time (CST), which is 12 hours ahead of New York and 7 or 8 hours ahead of London depending on British Summer Time.

The pattern is consistent: China reports GDP roughly two to three weeks after the quarter ends, faster than most major economies. The January release doubles as the full-year figure, which is the number measured against the government’s annual growth target.

What is China GDP?

Gross domestic product is the total value of everything a country produces in a given period: goods that come off factory lines, buildings that go up, services from haircuts to software, plus government spending. China reports it in yuan at constant prices, meaning the effect of inflation is stripped out so you are seeing real changes in output rather than changes in price tags.

Two numbers matter most. The first is the year-on-year growth rate, which compares the quarter with the same quarter a year earlier. This is the headline in China and the figure quoted in every news report. The second is the quarter-on-quarter rate, seasonally adjusted, which compares the quarter with the three months immediately before it. Quarter-on-quarter is the better guide to momentum right now, because year-on-year comparisons can be flattered or punished by whatever happened twelve months ago, a distortion economists call a base effect.

China also publishes GDP as a cumulative figure for the year to date. In July 2026, for example, the NBS reported that first-half output reached 69,570.4 billion yuan, up 4.7% on the same period of 2025. That cumulative framing is unusual internationally and can confuse readers who are used to standalone quarterly numbers.

The GDP release does not arrive alone. At the same moment the NBS publishes the monthly “activity data” for the final month of the quarter: industrial production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment, property investment and property sales, plus the surveyed urban unemployment rate. Markets frequently react more to those components, especially retail sales and property, than to the headline growth rate, because the headline tends to land close to the official target while the detail shows where the strain is.

How is it calculated?

The NBS produces GDP using the production approach, adding up value added across the primary industry (agriculture), the secondary industry (manufacturing, mining, construction and utilities) and the tertiary industry (services), then cross-checking against expenditure and income measures. Data come from compulsory reporting by large enterprises, sample surveys of smaller firms and households, tax and administrative records, and provincial statistics bureaus whose figures are reconciled centrally, a process introduced to reduce the long-standing gap between the sum of provincial GDP and the national total.

The first estimate published two to three weeks after quarter end is described by the NBS as a preliminary estimate. It is revised later as fuller data arrive, and the annual figure is revised again after the final verification of the previous year’s accounts and, at longer intervals, after the national economic census. Historical quarter-on-quarter figures are also restated when seasonal adjustment factors are updated, so a rate you read a year ago may differ slightly from the same rate today.

Unlike the United States or the United Kingdom, China sets an explicit annual growth target, announced by the premier at the National People’s Congress each March. According to Trading Economics, the 2026 target was set in a 4.5% to 5.0% range, a shift from the “around 5%” formulations of recent years. That target shapes how the data are read: a quarter below the range raises expectations of stimulus, a quarter at or above it lowers them.

The figures are treated with some scepticism by outside economists, who often cross-check them against electricity output, rail freight, port throughput, cement production and satellite data. That does not make the official series unusable. It is the number that moves markets and guides policy, so it has to be read on its own terms while being triangulated with the underlying detail.

What time is it released and where?

Quarterly GDP is published at 10:00 am China Standard Time (UTC+8) on the release date. That converts to:

• 10:00 pm ET the previous evening in New York (the October 19, 2026 release therefore hits at 10:00 pm ET on Sunday, October 18)
• 3:00 am in London during British Summer Time, 2:00 am when the UK is on GMT
• 11:00 am in Tokyo and Seoul, 10:00 am in Singapore and Hong Kong

The data appear on the NBS website at stats.gov.cn, with an English version at stats.gov.cn/english/, and are accompanied by a State Council Information Office press conference at which the NBS spokesperson and chief economist take questions. The NBS publishes its full release calendar in advance; the announcement for the current cycle is on the NBS statistical release schedule notice.

There is no pre-release lock-up of the kind used by American agencies, and the numbers reach wire services and the NBS site simultaneously. Chinese onshore equity markets are open when the data land, which is why the first visible reaction usually shows up in the CSI 300, the offshore yuan, Australian dollar and iron ore futures rather than in US stocks.

Historical data: quarterly GDP growth

The table below shows year-on-year real GDP growth by quarter. It illustrates the pattern of the past three years: headline growth clustered close to 5%, with a clear loss of momentum through 2025 and into 2026.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China; quarterly series as compiled by Trading Economics. Figures are subject to revision.

The most recent published reading is the one to anchor on. On July 15, 2026 the NBS reported that GDP grew 4.3% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 and 0.9% on the quarter, taking first-half growth to 4.7%. CNBC reported that the outcome undershot the 4.5% expected in a Reuters poll of economists, and Focus Economics described it as the weakest quarterly reading since the fourth quarter of 2022. Exports held up; investment and household demand did not.

What is the consensus forecast?

For the October 19, 2026 release, a firm consensus forecast has not yet been published. Reuters, Bloomberg and the major banks typically publish their polls in the week before the data, so the number will firm up in mid-October. As a marker, a Reuters poll of analysts reported in July 2026 projected roughly 4.6% growth in the third quarter and 4.5% in the fourth, and an earlier Reuters poll in January 2026 put full-year 2026 growth at 4.5%. Treat all of these as possibilities rather than predictions, and note that the July projections were made before the weaker-than-expected second quarter was published.

How do markets react?

The reaction function for China GDP is not the same as for American data, and the difference matters. In the United States, strong growth usually means higher interest rates, which can hurt bonds and equities. In China, weak growth often triggers a rally, because investors expect the People’s Bank of China to cut rates or the reserve requirement ratio (the share of deposits banks must hold back rather than lend) and expect Beijing to add fiscal support. Bad news for the economy can therefore be read as good news for stimulus-sensitive assets.

The channels that respond fastest are:

• Chinese and Hong Kong equities: the CSI 300 and Hang Seng, with property developers, banks and consumer names most sensitive to the retail sales and property components.
• The yuan: the onshore rate trades within a band around a daily fixing set by the central bank, so much of the adjustment shows up in the freer offshore yuan.
• Commodities: iron ore, copper, crude oil and coal. China buys a very large share of the world’s seaborne iron ore, so a soft construction and property read hits mining shares in Australia, Brazil and the UK, including the London-listed majors.
• Currencies of exporters to China: the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Chilean peso and often the Korean won.
• European luxury and industrial shares: French luxury groups and German carmakers and machinery firms depend heavily on Chinese demand, so weak retail sales tend to show up in the CAC 40 and DAX the following morning.

Moves are usually largest when the headline surprises relative to the official target or when the detail contradicts the headline. In July 2026, for example, resilient exports sat alongside a sharp slide in investment, and much of the commentary focused on the mismatch rather than the 4.3% itself.

What It Means for Your Money

You may never buy a Chinese share, and this data still reaches your finances. Here is how, in plain terms.

Prices in the shops. China makes a very large share of the world’s manufactured goods. When Chinese demand is weak and factories have spare capacity, export prices tend to fall, which pushes down the cost of electronics, appliances, furniture and clothing in the UK, Europe and the US. That is disinflationary, meaning it slows the rate at which prices rise. Conversely, a strong Chinese recovery lifts demand for oil, gas and metals, which feeds through to petrol pumps and energy bills.

Mortgages and savings rates. Central banks in London, Frankfurt and Washington do not set policy on Chinese data, but they do watch global inflation pressure. Persistently cheap Chinese goods and soft commodity prices make it easier for the Bank of England or the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, which eventually shows up in mortgage pricing and, less happily, in the rates offered on savings accounts. A commodity-led inflation surge does the opposite.

Your pension and investments. Most diversified global funds hold miners, energy companies, luxury goods groups, semiconductor firms and carmakers whose earnings depend on China. Emerging market funds hold Chinese equities directly, often 25% or more of the index. A quarter that changes the growth narrative can move those holdings several per cent, and it changes the outlook for dividends from the big mining groups.

Jobs. If you work in manufacturing, shipping, ports, mining, engineering, tourism or education, Chinese demand is part of your employer’s order book. Australia, Germany, South Korea, Chile and Brazil are the most exposed economies, but exporters everywhere feel it.

The pound, dollar and euro. Weak Chinese data usually strengthens the US dollar as investors move to safety, which makes imports and foreign holidays more expensive for anyone earning in sterling or euros. Strong Chinese data tends to lift the Australian dollar and other growth-linked currencies and can soften the dollar.

What to do about it. Almost always, nothing on the day. Single data points rarely justify changing a long-term plan. The practical use of this release is context: it tells you whether the global growth backdrop is improving or deteriorating, and that is worth knowing before you fix a mortgage, lock in a savings rate or rebalance a portfolio.

Related economic events

• US GDP report: the American equivalent, with three estimates per quarter rather than one.
• US CPI report: the inflation release that drives Federal Reserve expectations and, through the dollar, the value of Chinese exports.
• US jobs report: monthly payrolls, the other pillar of global risk sentiment.
• US PCE report: the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the next China GDP release?

The next release covers the third quarter of 2026 and is scheduled for Monday, October 19, 2026 at 10:00 am China Standard Time, which is 10:00 pm ET on Sunday, October 18 and 3:00 am in London on October 19.

What time is China GDP published?

Always 10:00 am Beijing time on the release date, alongside the monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment figures and a State Council Information Office press conference.

How often is China GDP released?

Quarterly, two to three weeks after the quarter ends, so mid-January, mid-April, mid-July and mid-October. The January release also carries the full-year figure measured against the government’s annual growth target.

Where can I find the official release?

On the National Bureau of Statistics website at stats.gov.cn, with an English translation at stats.gov.cn/english/. The NBS publishes its release calendar in advance, typically in late December for the following year.

How does China GDP affect interest rates?

Weak growth raises the likelihood that the People’s Bank of China cuts policy rates or the reserve requirement ratio and that Beijing adds fiscal support. Elsewhere, the effect is indirect: soft Chinese demand tends to lower global goods and commodity prices, which makes it easier for the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve to cut rates.