RBA Rate Decision: September 29, 2026

The September meeting is the sixth Monetary Policy Board decision of 2026, sitting between the August and November quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy meetings. At this stage in the hiking cycle, the Board will be assessing whether the three rate rises delivered in February, March, and May 2026 have been sufficient to cool inflation, or whether additional tightening is required.

The RBA has been navigating a challenging inflation environment in 2026. Services inflation has remained elevated due to labour market tightness, while energy and food prices have been pushed higher by the Middle East conflict. The May 2026 hike was delivered in an 8-1 vote, with the Board citing the need to bring underlying inflation back toward the 2-3% target band on a sustained basis. Since then, the Board has had the benefit of additional data from the June quarter CPI release and the August SMP to assess whether the hiking cycle is complete.

The decision will be announced at 2:30 pm AEST on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, followed by a press conference at 3:30 pm AEST.

What to Expect

The key indicator the Board will be watching ahead of September is the trimmed mean CPI for the September quarter, which will not be available until late October, after the September meeting. However, the Board will have access to monthly CPI indicator data from the ABS, which provides a more timely, if less precise, read on underlying inflation. If monthly indicators for July and August show continued moderation, the Board is more likely to hold in September. If they show a re-acceleration, a further hike becomes more credible.

Labour market conditions remain central. The RBA has repeatedly highlighted the role of wages growth in sustaining services inflation. Data on employment, unemployment, and the Wage Price Index published before September will inform the Board’s assessment. Any sharp deterioration in the labour market, such as a significant rise in unemployment, would change the calculus significantly, reducing the need for further rate hikes.

The global backdrop matters considerably for the RBA. China’s economic performance, commodity prices (particularly iron ore and coal), and the path of the US Federal Reserve’s policy rate all influence Australian financial conditions and the Board’s decision-making. The FOMC decision on 16 September (the day before the BoE’s September meeting) will provide an important read on global monetary conditions just two weeks before the RBA’s September decision.

Cash Rate Decision History

Market Impact Scenarios

• Hold at 4.35% (base case) – A hold is the most likely outcome if inflation data shows continued moderation. AUD would hold steady or weaken slightly as markets price in an eventual pivot toward cuts. The ASX 200 could rally modestly, particularly in property and consumer discretionary sectors. Bond yields would hold steady or fall slightly on the shorter end of the curve if the statement signals that the hiking cycle has ended.
• Hike 25bp to 4.60% – A fourth consecutive hike would signal that the Board remains concerned about inflation persistence. AUD would strengthen 0.5-1.0% against the US dollar. Bond yields would rise. The ASX 200 would likely fall, with highly indebted Australian households particularly sensitive to further rate increases at this stage of the cycle. Consumer confidence and housing markets would both come under pressure.
• Cut 25bp to 4.10% – A cut in September would only occur if there is strong evidence that inflation has fallen sharply and the economy is slowing meaningfully. This would be a significant surprise and would require a material deterioration in economic data over the July-August period. AUD would fall sharply. Bond prices would rally across the curve.

Statement and Press Conference

The Governor will hold a press conference at 3:30 pm AEST on 29 September 2026 following the rate announcement. As a non-SMP meeting, there will be no updated set of economic forecasts published alongside the decision. The post-decision statement will contain the Board’s current assessment of inflation, growth, and labour market conditions, and will include language indicating the Board’s inclination on future policy moves.

The September meeting minutes, released two weeks after the decision, will provide detail on the range of views within the Board and any changes in the balance of opinion toward future tightening or easing. Markets will also watch closely for any indication that the Board is beginning to discuss conditions under which it would consider cuts, rather than further hikes.

Related Events

• FOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s September decision on 16 September, providing important global context two weeks before the RBA’s decision.
• ECB Rate Decision September 2026 – The European Central Bank’s September decision on 10 September, another major central bank read on global inflation and monetary conditions.
• Bank of England MPC Rate Decision September 2026 – The BoE’s September decision on 17 September, providing further context on advanced economy monetary policy.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the RBA meet every month?

No. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board meets eight times per year since moving from its previous 11-meeting-per-year schedule. The 2026 meeting dates are February, March, May, June, August, September, November, and December. Four of those meetings (February, May, August, November) are accompanied by the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy with updated economic forecasts.

When is the September 2026 RBA decision announced?

The decision will be published at 2:30 pm AEST (4:30 am GMT) on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, following the two-day meeting on 28-29 September. The Governor holds a press conference at 3:30 pm AEST immediately after.

What impact does the RBA cash rate have on the Australian dollar?

The RBA cash rate influences the AUD by affecting the interest rate differential between Australia and other major economies. A higher Australian cash rate, relative to rates in the US, Europe, and Japan, makes AUD-denominated assets more attractive to global investors seeking yield, supporting the currency. A cut or surprise hold would typically weaken the AUD, while a hike or hawkish statement would typically support it. The AUD is also heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly iron ore, given the importance of mining exports to the Australian economy.

Featured image: Photo by Fabian Mardi on Unsplash.