Bank of England MPC Decision: November 5, 2026

The November meeting carries particular weight because it produces the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, which sets out the MPC’s updated central projections and fan charts for inflation and GDP. The November MPR will provide the clearest signal yet about whether the Bank sees scope for easing in 2027, or whether persistent inflation will require rates to remain on hold, or rise, through the year ahead.

Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% since December 2025, when the MPC cut by 25 basis points in a narrow 5-4 vote. Three consecutive decisions since then have resulted in holds. In April 2026, the MPC voted 8-1 to hold, with one member dissenting in favour of raising Bank Rate to 4.00%, citing continued above-target inflation and the risk of energy-price second-round effects stemming from the Middle East conflict. Markets and independent forecasters are divided on the outlook: some expect one or two cuts before year-end 2026, while others, including Oxford Economics, forecast no change through 2026 and into 2027.

The decision will be announced at 12:00 noon GMT on Thursday, 5 November 2026. The MPC’s vote breakdown and the full MPR will be published simultaneously.

What to Expect

The primary factor shaping the November decision will be the trajectory of UK consumer price inflation. The Office for National Statistics reported CPI inflation of 2.8% in the twelve months to April 2026, down from 3.3% in March, with the improvement driven largely by the introduction of the energy price cap on 1 April 2026. However, services inflation remained elevated, and the Bank’s own April MPR projected CPI rising to 3.3% in the third quarter of 2026, a forecast 1.4 percentage points higher than its February projection, reflecting sharply higher energy and food prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

Whether those projections prove accurate will be central to the November deliberations. If energy prices moderate through the summer and autumn, the Bank’s near-term inflation profile will ease, potentially reopening the debate about cuts. If they remain elevated, the MPC’s hawkish minority may grow, and a hike cannot be ruled out.

Labour market data will also matter. UK unemployment has remained low throughout 2026, and Average Weekly Earnings growth, while slowing from the peaks of 2023 and 2024, has remained above levels consistent with the 2% inflation target. The Bank watches wage dynamics closely as a leading indicator of domestically generated inflation. Any acceleration in earnings growth in the data available before November would make a cut significantly less likely.

Fiscal policy is a further consideration. Autumn Budget decisions and any changes to government spending or taxation could have implications for aggregate demand and, by extension, the inflation outlook. The Bank will incorporate any fiscal announcements into its MPR projections.

Rate Decision History

Market Impact Scenarios

• Hold at 3.75% (consensus) – A hold is the most likely outcome if inflation remains above target through the summer. Sterling would likely hold steady against the euro and dollar. Gilt yields would see limited movement. Markets would focus on the MPR’s forward guidance: a projection showing inflation returning sustainably to target by 2027 would be interpreted as pre-conditioning for future cuts, likely supporting short-dated gilts. The vote split will matter: a unanimous hold is more hawkish than a hold with several members favouring a cut.
• Cut 25bp to 3.50% – A cut to 3.50% would represent a significant positive surprise for bond markets, requiring clear evidence that inflation had fallen decisively and that the Middle East energy shock had proved transitory. Sterling would likely weaken 0.5-1.0% on the day against major peers. Gilt prices would rally across the curve, particularly in shorter maturities. Such a move would require a markedly dovish MPR, with inflation projected to return to 2% by mid-2027 or earlier.
• Hike 25bp to 4.00% – A hike would be the biggest surprise and is not currently priced by markets. It would signal that the Bank views inflation risks as decisively tilted upward, likely due to an inflation re-acceleration or a persistently tight labour market. Sterling would strengthen sharply. UK gilts would sell off across the curve. Equity markets would react negatively, with rate-sensitive sectors including housing, retail, and financials particularly affected.

The size of any rate move matters as much as the direction. A 50 basis point cut or hike, while highly unlikely, would represent a decisive shift in policy stance and generate outsized market reaction. The MPC has historically preferred gradualism in both directions.

Press Conference and Forward Guidance

Following the noon announcement, the Governor of the Bank of England will hold a press conference at approximately 12:30 pm GMT to present the Monetary Policy Report and take questions from journalists. This press conference is one of the more closely watched events in the UK financial calendar. The Governor’s framing of the economic outlook, language around the future rate path, and tone in response to questions can move markets as much as the rate decision itself.

Key phrases to monitor include any reference to the policy rate being “restrictive”, whether the MPC characterises risks to inflation as “balanced” or “skewed to the upside”, and whether forward guidance is framed as data-dependent or offers any implicit timetable for future moves. The MPR fan charts will be scrutinised for whether the central projection for CPI returns to 2% within the two-year forecast horizon, which is the Bank’s primary remit. Any language suggesting openness to easing in early 2027 would be taken as a dovish signal, while a projection showing inflation remaining above target throughout 2027 would support an extended hold, or even a hike.

Related Events

• Bank of England MPC Rate Decision September 2026 – The preceding MPC decision, providing context for how policy evolved in the run-up to November.
• Bank of England MPC Rate Decision December 2026 – The next scheduled MPC decision following November, also a non-MPR meeting.
• FOMC Rate Decision October 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s rate decision in October, providing global monetary policy context for the Bank of England’s November deliberations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bank of England’s mandate and how does the MPC decide on Bank Rate?

The Bank of England’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, defined as a CPI inflation rate of 2%. The Monetary Policy Committee, which comprises nine members including the Governor, Deputy Governors, and external experts, sets Bank Rate by majority vote at each scheduled meeting. When the Bank Rate deviates from 2% by more than 1 percentage point, the Governor must write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining why and what action is being taken.

When exactly will the November 2026 MPC decision be announced?

The Bank of England will publish the MPC decision, vote breakdown, Monetary Policy Summary, and full Monetary Policy Report simultaneously at 12:00 noon GMT on Thursday, 5 November 2026. A press conference with the Governor will follow at approximately 12:30 pm GMT.

What does a Bank Rate change mean for UK borrowers and savers?

Bank Rate is the interest rate the Bank of England charges commercial banks to borrow money overnight, and it directly influences the rates those banks offer on mortgages, loans, and savings accounts. A cut in Bank Rate typically leads to lower mortgage rates and reduced returns on savings. A hike does the opposite. Variable-rate and tracker mortgage holders are most immediately affected, while fixed-rate borrowers are insulated until their deal expires.