What is the Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report?

The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report (MARTS) is published monthly by the US Census Bureau and provides the first estimate of retail spending for the prior month. Released approximately two weeks after the reference month ends, it covers retail trade and food services activity across 13 major categories. The data is used as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP.

The headline figure measures the percentage change in total retail and food services sales, seasonally adjusted, from the prior month. Market participants also pay close attention to the “control group” or “core” retail sales measure, which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, building materials, and food services. This control group feeds directly into the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) GDP calculation for personal consumption expenditures and is therefore closely watched as a forward-looking GDP input.

The advance estimate is subject to revision in the monthly retail trade report published approximately four weeks later, once additional survey data is collected. March 2026’s initial reading of +1.7% was subsequently revised to +1.6% when the April 2026 advance report was published.

April 2026 Retail Sales: May 14, 2026

Advance estimates showed total US retail and food services sales of $757.1 billion in April 2026, up 0.5% from March on a seasonally adjusted basis and up 4.9% year-over-year. The monthly gain was in line with consensus forecasts, and retail trade sales alone rose 0.5% from the prior month.

The headline print represented a deceleration from March’s 1.6% (revised) monthly surge, which had been one of the strongest months in recent history. The March spike had been attributed in part to consumers making pre-tariff purchases, front-loading spending on goods they anticipated would be more expensive after new tariffs took full effect. April’s moderation suggested some of that pull-forward demand had dissipated.

However, the composition of April’s retail gains revealed important nuances. Gasoline station sales rose sharply, contributing significantly to the overall gain as petrol prices increased on the back of the Middle East conflict. This inflated the nominal figure while providing no real economic benefit. Stripping out the price effect, the Census Bureau estimated that real retail and food services sales declined approximately 0.2% from March, meaning households’ actual purchasing volumes contracted slightly even as the dollar figure rose.

Category Breakdown

Performance was uneven across the retail sector in April 2026. Gasoline station receipts were a notable contributor to the headline gain, supported by higher fuel prices. Food services and drinking places, which represent discretionary out-of-home spending, were broadly stable. Non-store retailers (online) held up well relative to some brick-and-mortar categories.

Discretionary spending categories showed notable weakness. Furniture and home furnishing stores fell 2.0%, reflecting the slowdown in housing activity and consumer caution about large purchases. Clothing and clothing accessory stores declined 1.5%. Department stores fell 3.2%, continuing a longer-term trend of consumers shifting away from traditional department stores. Motor vehicle and parts dealers slipped 0.5%, as elevated auto prices and high financing costs suppressed demand. Building materials and garden supply stores were also softer amid a sluggish housing market.

Core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, restaurants, and building materials, rose 0.5% month-over-month, a cleaner signal of underlying consumer demand that excludes the volatile and price-sensitive categories. This core measure directly influences the BEA’s GDP consumption estimates and was seen as broadly neutral for the Q2 2026 growth outlook.

Historical Context

Sources: US Census Bureau MARTS reports, Trading Economics, UPI, Advisor Perspectives. December 2025 approximated from Census year-end 2025 release. YoY figures for Jan-Mar 2026 not independently verified against primary source.

What the Data Meant for the Economic Outlook

The April retail sales data provided a mixed picture for the US economy heading into the summer of 2026. On the surface, three consecutive months of positive nominal retail growth suggested consumer demand remained intact. However, the inflation-adjusted picture was less encouraging: real retail sales were declining even as nominal figures rose, indicating that consumers were spending more simply to buy less.

The pattern of front-loaded purchases in February and March, followed by a more modest April, raised questions about the sustainability of consumer spending in subsequent quarters. With real wages under pressure from above-3% inflation and personal saving rates already declining, household balance sheets showed signs of strain. The April data was consistent with the broader economic picture: a labour market that remained reasonably resilient, GDP growth that was slowing, and inflation that was significantly above target.

For the Federal Reserve (the Fed), the retail sales data was secondary to the CPI and PCE data released in the same week. The FOMC rate decision in June 2026 remained focused on the inflation trajectory, and retail sales data that showed nominal strength driven by price increases rather than volume gains did not materially alter the policy calculus. Markets continued to expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at the June meeting, watching subsequent months of data for evidence of a sustainable deceleration in inflation.

Related Events

• US Retail Sales June 2026 – The May 2026 retail sales data, released June 17, 2026, provided the next read on consumer spending and whether April’s composition of gains was improving.
• FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – Retail sales data formed part of the broader economic picture the Fed assessed at its June meeting in determining whether to hold or adjust rates.
• US CPI Report June 2026 – The June CPI reading provided the most important context for understanding whether the nominal retail sales gains reflected genuine consumer strength or simply inflation pass-through.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the April 2026 retail sales report show?

The Census Bureau reported that advance estimates of US retail and food services sales for April 2026 were $757.1 billion, up 0.5% from March 2026 and up 4.9% from April 2025. The monthly gain matched the consensus forecast of approximately 0.5% and marked the third consecutive month of positive retail sales growth. However, adjusted for inflation, real retail sales declined approximately 0.2% from March, as nominal gains were driven largely by higher gasoline prices.

Why did retail sales fall in real terms while rising nominally?

Nominal retail sales measure the total dollar value of transactions, which includes the effect of price changes. When prices rise, the same quantity of goods costs more, inflating the nominal figure. In April 2026, headline CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, and energy prices rose sharply on the month. Stripping out these price effects to estimate real (volume-based) sales shows that consumers were actually buying less even as they paid more, particularly in discretionary categories such as furniture, clothing, and department stores.

What is the “control group” in retail sales and why does it matter?

The retail sales control group, also known as core retail sales, excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, building materials, and food services. This is the measure that feeds directly into the BEA’s calculation of personal consumption expenditures in the GDP report. Economists and the Federal Reserve pay particular attention to this figure because it provides a cleaner signal of underlying consumer demand, removing the most volatile and price-sensitive categories. In April 2026, the control group rose 0.5%, suggesting relatively stable underlying consumption.

Featured image: Photo by Igor Karimov on Unsplash.