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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T110000
DTSTAMP:20260903T142422Z
CREATED:20260825T102004Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260903T142422Z
UID:1659-1788429600-1788433200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US ISM Services PMI September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US ISM Services PMI: 55.4 (August 2026) (Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London)). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nActual\n55.4 (August 2026)\n\nFull schedule and background: US ISM Services PMI. \nUpdated September 3\, 2026 \n\nThe US ISM Services PMI for August 2026 registered 55.4 percent\, up from July’s 54.1 percent\, the Institute for Supply Management reported on September 3\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 ISM Services PMI has not yet been published by major polling desks this close to release. The prior reading\, for July 2026\, came in at 54.1\, according to the Institute for Supply Management\, up slightly from June and marking a 25th straight month of expansion\, though one commentary noted the July print landed “slightly below expectations of 54.5”. Any August figure much below 50 would signal an unexpected contraction in the services sector\, a surprise investors are not currently pricing in given the sector’s recent resilience. \nThe US ISM Services PMI for August 2026 is due at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London) on Thursday\, September 3\, 2026\, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The report covers services sector activity in August 2026\, the second-largest slice of the US economy after manufacturing. Full schedule and background: US ISM Services PMI. The Institute for Supply Management has not yet confirmed the exact release date for this specific report\, but ISM reports are published on the first business day of the month following the survey period\, so September 3\, 2026 is the expected date. \nWhat is the ISM Services PMI?\nThe ISM Services PMI\, formally the Services PMI\, is a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives across more than a dozen service industries\, including finance\, healthcare\, retail and transport. Each month\, ISM asks respondents whether business activity\, new orders\, employment\, supplier deliveries\, inventories and prices have increased\, decreased or stayed the same compared with the prior month. \nThe headline figure is a diffusion index built from these responses. A reading above 50 percent signals the services sector is expanding; below 50 percent signals contraction. Because services make up roughly two-thirds of US economic output\, the index is one of the most closely watched real-time signals of how the broader economy is performing\, alongside its manufacturing counterpart. \nMarkets watch it because it arrives quickly\, before official government data such as GDP\, and because sub-indices like new orders and employment often hint at where growth and hiring are heading in the following months. A sharp move in the Prices Paid component is also read as an early signal for inflation trends that the Federal Reserve tracks. \nWhen is the August ISM Services PMI released?\nThe report is scheduled for 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) on Thursday\, September 3\, 2026. It is published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and released via the ISM website and major newswires including PR Newswire. As with all ISM reports\, the exact date can shift slightly if it falls near a public holiday\, so readers should check the official ISM calendar close to the date for final confirmation. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 reading has not yet been published by major surveys such as Reuters or Bloomberg at the time of writing. The most recent confirmed reading is the July 2026 report\, in which the headline Services PMI registered 54.1 percent\, up 0.1 percentage point from June’s 54.0 percent\, according to the ISM Services PMI Report. That marked the 25th consecutive month of expansion. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline Services PMI\n54.1%\nNot yet published\n\n\nEmployment Index\n47.4%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nRead as evidence the services economy is accelerating\, which could reduce expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts if paired with firm prices paid\nThe services side of the economy\, where most jobs sit\, is growing faster than expected\, which can support wages but also keep borrowing costs higher for longer\n\n\nIn line\nLikely to have limited market impact on its own\, though sub-indices such as employment and prices paid could still move bond and currency markets\nThe economy is behaving broadly as expected\, so there is little reason for lenders or the Fed to change course immediately\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCould be read as a sign of cooling demand\, particularly if new orders or business activity slow\, potentially reinforcing bets on rate cuts\nSlower growth in services can eventually mean fewer job openings and softer pricing power for businesses\, which can filter through to weaker wage growth\n\n\n\nThese are possible interpretations\, not predictions. Actual market reaction depends on the full report\, including the employment and prices paid components\, not just the headline number. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe services sector has expanded for 25 straight months as of the July 2026 report\, but the details beneath the headline have been mixed. The Business Activity Index jumped to 59.1 percent in July from 55.4 percent in June\, and New Orders climbed to 57.2 percent from 55.1 percent\, according to the ISM Services PMI Report for July. At the same time\, the Employment Index fell back into contraction at 47.4 percent\, down from 51.2 percent in June\, a divergence flagged by independent analysis of the report from Neil’s Newsletter\, which noted employment has been below 50 for 12 of the last 18 months. \nPrices Paid\, a proxy for input cost pressure\, rose to 70.3 percent in July from 67.7 percent in June\, according to the same analysis. That combination of strong activity\, softer hiring and rising input costs is exactly the mix the Federal Reserve watches when weighing whether inflation risks or labour market risks deserve more weight in its interest rate decisions. The 12-month average reading of 53.4 percent\, cited in the ISM report\, shows the sector has been on a gradually improving trend\, so an August print that breaks sharply from that pattern in either direction would draw close scrutiny. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing: a strong services report\, especially with high prices paid\, can reduce the chance of near-term Fed rate cuts\, keeping US mortgage and loan rates higher for longer. A weak report has the opposite effect and can pull mortgage rates down.\nSavings: higher-for-longer interest rate expectations tend to support returns on savings accounts and money market funds in the US\, while a weaker report can see savings rates drift lower over time as rate cut expectations build.\nJobs and wages: the Employment Index is a genuine early signal for the services sector\, which employs the majority of US workers. Continued weakness there\, as seen in July\, can be an early warning of slower hiring even while headline growth looks solid.\nPrices: the Prices Paid Index feeds into expectations for consumer inflation. A sustained rise can mean businesses pass higher costs on to consumers\, affecting everything from restaurant bills to service fees.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: US equity and bond markets often move on ISM releases\, which can ripple into pension funds holding US assets worldwide. A stronger-than-expected reading\, particularly with firm prices\, tends to support the dollar against the pound and euro\, while a weak reading can weigh on it. UK and European investors with US-focused funds or dollar exposure should watch for volatility around the release time.\n\nRelated events\n\nISM Manufacturing PMI\, typically released a few business days before the Services PMI each month\nUS nonfarm payrolls report\, usually released the first Friday of the month\, shortly after the Services PMI\nFederal Reserve interest rate decisions\, which weigh services sector data alongside inflation and labour market reports\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the ISM Services PMI released?\nThe report is released at 10:00 am ET\, which is 3:00 pm in London\, on the first business day of the month following the survey period. \nHow do I read the ISM Services PMI number?\nA reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector is expanding compared with the prior month\, while a reading below 50 percent indicates contraction. The further from 50\, the stronger the signal. \nHow does this release affect interest rates?\nThe Federal Reserve monitors services sector activity and prices paid as part of its assessment of economic growth and inflation pressure\, which can influence the timing of interest rate decisions. \nWhere can I find the official ISM Services PMI release?\nThe official report is published on the Institute for Supply Management’s website and distributed via newswires such as PR Newswire at the time of release. \nWhen is the next ISM Services PMI report after this one?\nThe following report\, covering September 2026 data\, is expected on the first business day of October 2026\, following ISM’s usual publication schedule. \nResults: US ISM Services PMI\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline Services PMI\nNot formally published\n55.4%\n54.1% (July 2026)\n\n\nBusiness Activity Index\nNot formally published\n61.7%\n59.1% (July 2026)\n\n\nNew Orders Index\nNot formally published\n60.9%\n57.2% (July 2026)\n\n\nEmployment Index\nNot formally published\n47.8%\n47.4% (July 2026)\n\n\n\nThe Institute for Supply Management reported that the Services PMI registered 55.4 percent in August 2026\, up 1.3 percentage points from July’s 54.1 percent\, marking the 26th consecutive month of expansion. This was firmer than the picture painted in the July report\, which had already shown accelerating business activity and new orders\, and confirms that the acceleration scenario from the preview materialised rather than a slowdown. \nThe Business Activity Index and New Orders Index both climbed further\, to 61.7 percent and 60.9 percent respectively\, reinforcing the sense of a services sector running hotter than in recent months. However\, the Employment Index contracted for a second straight month\, at 47.8 percent\, only marginally above July’s 47.4 percent. That persistent weakness in hiring intentions\, even as headline activity and orders strengthen\, echoes the divergence flagged in the preview and remains the most closely watched sub-index for signs of labour market cooling. \nMarket Reaction\nThe stronger headline print\, and particularly the jump in new orders and business activity\, was read by market commentators as evidence the services economy is running above trend\, reducing the odds some traders had placed on an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Short-dated Treasury yields edged higher immediately after the 10:00 am ET release\, and the dollar firmed against the pound and euro in the minutes that followed\, consistent with the above-consensus scenario outlined ahead of the release. \nEquity markets showed a more mixed response\, with early gains in cyclical and services-linked shares partly offset by concern that a second straight contraction in the Employment Index points to a softer labour market even as broader activity accelerates. Fed funds futures tracked by the CME FedWatch tool showed only a modest reduction in the probability of a near-term rate cut\, suggesting traders are weighing the strong headline against the weaker jobs signal rather than reacting to one number alone. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe stronger services reading\, if sustained\, points toward US interest rates staying higher for longer than some had hoped\, which keeps US mortgage and loan costs elevated and continues to support returns on dollar savings and money market funds. At the same time\, the ongoing weakness in the Employment Index is a reminder that hiring in the services sector\, which employs most US workers\, remains fragile\, a signal worth watching in the run-up to the next nonfarm payrolls report. UK and European holders of dollar assets or US equity funds may see some near-term currency-driven volatility\, though the outlook for global rates and currencies has not shifted decisively on this release alone.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-ism-services-pmi-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T093000
DTSTAMP:20260903T132319Z
CREATED:20260825T102429Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260903T132319Z
UID:1660-1788424200-1788427800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Initial Jobless Claims: September 3\, 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Initial Jobless Claims: 206\,000 initial claims (week ending August 29\, 2026)\, 1.779 million continuing claims (week ending August 22\, 2026) (Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). \n\nActual\n206\,000 initial claims (week ending August 29\, 2026)\, 1.779 million continuing claims (week ending August 22\, 2026)\n\nFull schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nUpdated September 3\, 2026 \n\nInitial jobless claims for the week ending August 29\, 2026 rose to 206\,000\, a touch above the 205\,000 consensus forecast\, and slightly above the prior week’s revised reading of 204\,000\, according to the US Department of Labor. \nA consensus forecast for the September 3\, 2026 release has not yet been published\, as weekly jobless claims estimates from Reuters and Bloomberg surveys typically appear only a day or two before the report. The prior reading\, for the week ending August 22\, 2026\, showed initial claims at 203\,000\, down from a revised 207\,000 and below the earlier median forecast of around 208\,000\, according to FRED and Investing.com. Claims have held broadly between 189\,000 and 230\,000 through 2026\, so a surprise would mean a reading well outside that range\, potentially signalling either a sudden pickup in layoffs or renewed labour market tightness. \n← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims\nThe US Department of Labor releases its weekly Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). The report covers new applications for unemployment benefits filed in the week ending August 29\, 2026. It is one of the most timely gauges of the American labour market\, published every week regardless of other data on the calendar. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the week ending August 29\, 2026 has not yet been published. Economist forecasts for this release typically appear the day before\, once major data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters poll their panels\, so a figure should surface closer to September 2\, 2026. \nThe most recently published reading is for the week ending August 15\, 2026\, when initial claims fell to 206\,000 (seasonally adjusted) from 212\,000 the previous week\, according to Trading Economics\, citing the Department of Labor. Continuing claims\, which count people still receiving benefits after their first week\, fell by 22\,000 to 1\,777\,000 in the earlier reference week\, according to the same source. A further release covering the week ending August 22\, 2026 was due on August 27\, 2026\, but had not been confirmed in official data at the time this page was prepared. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior\nConsensus\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n206\,000 (week ending August 15\, 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\nContinuing claims\n1\,777\,000 (week ending August 8\, 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nPlain-English meaning\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nRead as a sign of labour-market cooling\, often supportive of Treasury prices and a softer dollar\, and can raise bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts\nMore people than expected are losing jobs or being laid off\, hinting the jobs market is weakening\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, since the data confirms the existing picture of a gradually cooling but still resilient labour market\nThe pace of layoffs is roughly unchanged from recent weeks\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCan be read as a sign of continued labour-market strength\, which may reduce expectations for near-term rate cuts and support the dollar\nFewer people than expected filed for benefits\, suggesting employers are still holding onto staff\n\n\n\nWhy it matters this week\nJobless claims have stayed close to historically low levels through the summer of 2026\, even as other labour indicators\, including the monthly payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics\, have shown a slower pace of hiring. Trading Economics notes that recent readings have broadly aligned with comments from Federal Reserve officials who describe the US economy as close to full employment\, even though continuing claims have drifted higher over the year\, a sign that people who lose jobs are taking longer to find new ones. \nThe Federal Reserve watches this release closely because it arrives weekly\, well ahead of the monthly jobs report\, and can flag turning points in the labour market before they show up elsewhere. A run of higher claims would add weight to arguments for further interest rate cuts\, while continued low claims would support policymakers who prefer to hold rates steady for longer. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor anyone with a mortgage\, a savings account or a pension\, this weekly number matters because of what it tells markets about the direction of US interest rates. If claims rise sharply and stay high\, traders often increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts\, which can pull down bond yields and\, eventually\, some borrowing costs\, including mortgage rates linked to longer-term rates. Savers\, in turn\, may see returns on cash and money-market accounts drift lower over time. \nA weaker labour market reading can also weigh on the dollar. A softer dollar can make imports more expensive for American households\, while making US exports and dollar-priced assets\, including some UK and European pension holdings\, look relatively cheaper to overseas buyers. Conversely\, unexpectedly low claims tend to support the dollar and can keep pressure on the pound and euro\, since they suggest the Fed has less urgency to cut rates. \nFor investors\, this release feeds into the same debate driving stock and bond markets all year: how quickly the Fed can lower rates without reigniting inflation. Sharp\, unexpected moves in either direction can move both US and global markets within minutes of the 8:30 am ET release\, even though any single week’s figure is noisy and often revised. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the jobless claims report released?\nThe Department of Labor publishes the report at 8:30 am ET\, which is 1:30 pm in London\, every Thursday unless a public holiday shifts the schedule. \nWhat counts as a big miss from consensus?\nMoves of more than around 15\,000 to 20\,000 claims away from the consensus forecast are generally seen as significant\, since the weekly figure is naturally volatile and subject to revision the following week. \nWhen is the next jobless claims report?\nThe following release covers the week ending September 5\, 2026 and is due on Thursday\, September 10\, 2026\, again at 8:30 am ET. \n← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims\nResults: US Initial Jobless Claims\, week ending August 29\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n205\,000\n206\,000\n204\,000 (revised from 203\,000)\n\n\nContinuing claims\nNot separately forecast\n1\,779\,000 (week ending August 22\, 2026)\n1\,771\,000 (week ending August 15\, 2026)\n\n\n\nThe Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 206\,000 in the week ending August 29\, 2026\, a touch above the 205\,000 consensus forecast tracked by FXStreet and just above the prior week’s revised reading of 204\,000\, itself revised up from an initially reported 203\,000. The four-week moving average\, which smooths out weekly noise\, rose modestly to 207\,250 from the previous week’s revised level\, according to FXStreet and the Associated Press. \nContinuing claims\, edged higher to 1\,779\,000 for the week ending August 22\, 2026\, up 8\,000 from the prior week\, according to FXStreet\, pointing to people who lose jobs taking somewhat longer to find new roles even as the pace of layoffs itself stays historically low. \nThis scenario landed close to the middle of the ranges outlined in the earlier preview: a small overshoot versus consensus\, not large enough to be read as a clear turning point. The result kept claims within the roughly 189\,000 to 230\,000 band that has held through 2026\, reinforcing the Fed’s description of the labour market as close to full employment even as continuing claims drift higher over the course of the year. \nMarket Reaction\nCurrency markets moved more than usual around this release\, but analysts attributed most of the swing to other forces rather than the jobs data itself. FXStreet reported that the US Dollar Index slid towards the 99.00 support level on the day\, a decline it linked chiefly to intensifying speculation over a Bank of Japan interest rate rise\, which pulled USD/JPY sharply lower. CNBC reported that stock index futures firmed and Treasury yields eased on the same morning\, as investors weighed the claims figure alongside a wider than expected US trade deficit for July. \nUS Treasury yields\, which had climbed to a 20 month high earlier in the week on inflation worries\, eased back somewhat as the jobless claims print reinforced the picture of a gradually softening labour market without signalling any sharp deterioration. Elsewhere\, UK gilt yields and German Bunds\, which had also risen sharply earlier in the week on their own domestic pressures\, were not materially moved by the US release. There> \nFoundation for Fed policy: because the reading landed close to consensus\, it did little on its own to shift pricing for the Federal Reserve’s next meeting\, leaving traders focused instead on the upcoming monthly payrolls report and inflation data for a clearer signal on the pace of further interest rate cuts. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook for mortgages\, savings rates and currencies is largely unchanged by this release. The result was landed close to consensus and did not materially shift market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move\, so borrowers and savers should continue to watch the monthly payrolls report and upcoming inflation data for clearer signals on the direction of US interest rates.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-initial-jobless-claims-september-3-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260903T093000
DTSTAMP:20260903T132221Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260903T132221Z
UID:1329-1788424200-1788427800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US International Trade Balance September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US International Trade Balance: Deficit widened to $88.6 billion in July 2026\, up 24.4% from June (Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nActual\nDeficit widened to $88.6 billion in July 2026\, up 24.4% from June\n\nFull schedule and background: US Trade Balance. \nUpdated September 3\, 2026 \n\nThe US goods and services trade deficit widened to $88.6 billion in July 2026\, up 24.4% from a revised $73.3 billion in June and slightly narrower than the $90.2 billion consensus from a Bloomberg survey of economists\, the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on September 3\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for the July 2026 trade balance has not yet been widely published ahead of the September 3 release. The most recent official reading showed the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026\, down from $77.6 billion in May\, according to the joint US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis release. Preliminary goods-only data from Trading Economics point to a wider July goods gap of $118.8 billion\, so traders should watch for whether the full report confirms a sharply larger overall deficit. A surprise would be any reading that diverges materially from that preliminary goods figure once services trade is added. \n← Previous US International Trade BalanceNext US International Trade Balance →\nUS International Trade Balance: September 2026 Preview\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau will jointly publish the International Trade in Goods and Services report for July 2026 on Thursday\, 3 September 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Known informally as the FT-900 release\, the report measures the monthly gap between American exports and imports across goods and services\, providing one of the broadest measures of the country’s external trade position. With tariff policy continuing to reshape global supply chains and import volumes\, the July reading will be among the first data points to signal how the summer trading period has absorbed the duty landscape that has defined much of 2026. \nThe release arrives at a pivotal point in the US economic calendar\, landing five days before the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting window opens. Traders and analysts will be parsing the July deficit not only for its headline figure but for its implications for second-half GDP growth\, dollar strength\, and the composition of the inflation pressures the Fed is managing. \n\n\n\nDetail\nInformation\n\n\n\n\nRelease date\n3 September 2026 (Thursday)\n\n\nRelease time\n8:30 a.m. ET / 13:30 BST\n\n\nReference month\nJuly 2026\n\n\nReleasing agencies\nBEA and US Census Bureau\n\n\nMost recent confirmed reading\nMarch 2026: -$60.3 billion\n\n\nFrequency\nMonthly\n\n\nMarket impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat the Report Measures\nThe FT-900 is one of the most comprehensive monthly snapshots of America’s engagement with the global economy. It splits trade into two broad categories: \nGoods covers the physical movement of products across US borders. The major sub-categories include industrial supplies and materials (including petroleum)\, capital goods (machinery\, aircraft\, semiconductors)\, consumer goods (pharmaceuticals\, vehicles\, household appliances)\, automotive products\, and food and beverages. The goods balance has been in deficit for decades\, reflecting the structural reality of a large consumer economy that sources much of its manufacturing from abroad. \nServices tracks cross-border transactions in intangible areas: travel and tourism\, financial services\, intellectual property royalties and licence fees\, telecommunications\, transport\, and education. The United States has consistently maintained a services surplus — running above $27 billion per month in early 2026 — which partially offsets the goods deficit to produce the headline total. \nThe difference between total exports and total imports yields the headline trade balance. When imports exceed exports\, the US records a deficit; when exports exceed imports\, a surplus. For goods and services combined\, the US has recorded a deficit in every month since early 2020. \nThe report also matters for national accounts. Net exports — the external sector contribution — feed directly into the quarterly GDP calculation. A wider deficit subtracts from GDP growth; a narrowing deficit adds to it. Revisions to the monthly trade data can therefore shift GDP estimates meaningfully\, making the FT-900 a key input for economists tracking real output. \nRecent Trend and Historical Data\nThe monthly trade deficit has been volatile over the past year\, driven primarily by front-running behaviour ahead of tariff changes. Importers pulled forward purchases in late 2025 to lock in lower duty rates before new levies took effect\, inflating the goods deficit to -$70.3 billion in December 2025. When that pre-positioning unwound\, the deficit snapped back sharply to -$54.5 billion in January 2026 — the narrowest reading in over a year. \nSince January\, the deficit has edged progressively wider. February 2026 printed at -$57.3 billion\, with the goods deficit at -$84.6 billion partially offset by a $27.3 billion services surplus. March 2026 widened further to -$60.3 billion\, as the goods deficit expanded to -$88.7 billion — its largest in the data set below — while the services surplus grew to $28.4 billion. \n\n\n\nMonth\nGoods Deficit\nServices Surplus\nTotal Deficit\n\n\n\n\nAugust 2025\nn/a\nn/a\n-$59.6B\n\n\nNovember 2025\nn/a\nn/a\n-$56.8B\n\n\nDecember 2025\nn/a\nn/a\n-$70.3B\n\n\nJanuary 2026\n-$82.8B\n+$27.3B\n-$54.5B\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n-$84.6B\n+$27.3B\n-$57.3B\n\n\nMarch 2026\n-$88.7B\n+$28.4B\n-$60.3B\n\n\n\nSources: BEA FT-900 press releases; JEC Senate Monthly Trade Update; BLS advance economic indicators. \nThe structural widening in the goods deficit through early 2026 reflects several forces: elevated consumer demand for imported electronics and vehicles; capital equipment imports tied to the domestic manufacturing expansion encouraged by industrial policy; and the phased effect of tariff adjustments on the composition of import flows. The growing services surplus has acted as a partial counterweight\, driven by strong inbound tourism\, financial services exports\, and royalty income from US intellectual property held abroad. \nWhat the Markets Are Watching\nThe July 2026 report will be read in a specific context shaped by three interacting themes. \nTariff stabilisation and ordering patterns. Following the Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling that curtailed several broad tariff programmes\, import levies have stabilised compared to the highly volatile late-2025 period. The question for July is whether businesses have resumed normal ordering cycles or whether residual uncertainty is still distorting import volumes. A sustained widening of the goods deficit\, even without the pre-positioning distortions of 2025\, would suggest underlying demand is genuinely strong — which has different policy implications than a tariff-driven import surge. \nEnergy and petroleum flows. Petroleum products have been a volatile sub-component throughout 2025-26. Changes in OPEC+ output levels\, US domestic production from the Permian Basin\, and the strategic petroleum reserve cycle all influence the energy goods deficit. A significant swing in petroleum trade in July could distort the headline figure in either direction. \nThe services surplus as a stabiliser. Financial services exports and travel receipts tend to be stronger in summer months\, which could provide a seasonal lift to the services surplus in July. A larger services surplus would moderate the total deficit even if goods imports remain elevated. Analysts will track whether the services contribution continues to expand or whether any softening in financial markets during the period tempers financial services export income. \nThe dollar’s trajectory through June and July 2026 will also serve as a contextual input. A weaker dollar reduces US purchasing power for imports and makes American exports cheaper for foreign buyers\, tending over time to narrow the deficit. Currency dynamics heading into the September report window will inform how traders interpret the direction of the headline number. \nMarket Scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nIndicative Range\nLikely Market Reaction\n\n\n\n\nDeficit narrows sharply\nBetter than -$56B\nUSD strengthens; equities may tick higher on GDP tailwind; Treasury yields edge up\n\n\nIn line with recent trend\n-$56B to -$65B\nMuted reaction; market focus shifts to payrolls and Fed guidance\n\n\nDeficit widens materially\nWorse than -$65B\nUSD softens; some equity pressure if it raises growth concerns; bonds may rally\n\n\n\nThe trade balance is a medium-impact release on a standalone basis. Its market influence is amplified when the deficit moves well outside recent norms\, or when it arrives in a month where the growth narrative is already in flux. September 2026 may be such a month: the release comes one day before the US services ISM and ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls the following Friday\, placing it within a dense data cluster that will collectively shape the September FOMC meeting. \nRelated Events\n\nUS Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) September 2026 — Published Friday\, 5 September 2026. Labour market strength shapes consumer demand and therefore future import volumes.\nUS Consumer Price Index September 2026 — Inflation data affecting Fed rate expectations and dollar dynamics that feed back into trade competitiveness.\nUS Producer Price Index September 2026 — Supply-side cost pressures that influence export pricing and manufacturing competitiveness.\nUS International Trade Balance August 2026 — The preceding month’s release (4 August 2026)\, covering June 2026 data\, will provide the most recent comparable reading ahead of the September report.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 — The Federal Reserve’s September policy decision will incorporate the trade data as one input to its growth and inflation assessment.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the trade balance released?\nThe FT-900 report is published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (13:30 BST) on Thursday\, 3 September 2026. Data is embargoed until that moment; early access is granted only to accredited media under lock-up conditions. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe press release and full tables are published simultaneously by the BEA at bea.gov and by the Census Bureau at census.gov/foreign-trade. Both agencies publish the same underlying data; the BEA site provides additional services breakdowns. \nWhat is the difference between the goods deficit and the total deficit?\nThe goods deficit covers only physical trade flows — manufactured goods\, petroleum\, food\, vehicles. The total (goods and services) deficit nets out the services surplus. For the United States\, the services surplus has been running above $27 billion per month in early 2026\, substantially reducing the headline deficit relative to the goods-only figure. \nDoes the trade balance affect GDP directly?\nYes. Net exports — exports minus imports — are one of the four components of the GDP expenditure calculation. A wider deficit subtracts from quarterly GDP; a narrowing deficit adds to it. This is why large swings in the monthly trade balance can shift GDP nowcast models significantly even before the official BEA GDP estimate is published. \nWhy does the data take so long to compile?\nThe FT-900 is published approximately 34 to 36 days after the end of the reference month\, reflecting the time required to compile customs entry data\, services transaction reports\, and seasonal adjustment calculations across a wide range of product and country categories. An advance goods estimate (the Advance Economic Indicators Report) is typically published around 26 days after month-end\, providing an early read on the goods deficit before the full report. \nHow often is the data revised?\nEach monthly FT-900 release revises the prior month’s data. More substantive revisions are published as part of the BEA annual update; the June 2026 annual revision updated goods data back to 2021 and services data back to 1999. \nResults: US International Trade Balance\, July 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nGoods and services deficit\n-$90.2 billion (Bloomberg survey)\n-$88.6 billion\n-$73.3 billion (June 2026\, revised)\n\n\n\nThe Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday\, September 3\, 2026 that the US goods and services trade deficit widened to $88.6 billion in July\, a 24.4% jump from June’s revised $73.3 billion\, according to Bloomberg. The figure came in slightly smaller than the median forecast of $90.2 billion from a Bloomberg survey of economists\, but it still marked the largest monthly deficit since early 2025. \nThe widening was driven mainly by a rebound in imports rather than a collapse in exports\, according to Commerce Department data cited by Bloomberg. This lines up with the pattern already visible in the advance goods figures published on August 27\, which showed the goods-only deficit jumping to $118.8 billion in July from $101.4 billion in June\, as imports rose while exports slipped\, according to the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators Report. The scenario that materialised was closer to the wider-deficit case flagged in the preview\, where a resumption of normal import ordering after the disruptions of late 2025 and early 2026 produced a genuine\, demand-driven widening rather than a tariff-timing distortion. \nThere were no major revisions to the June reading beyond the routine update already reflected in the $73.3 billion prior figure. The report confirms that the earlier narrowing seen in the January to June period has partially reversed\, with the year-to-date trade gap likely to narrow less sharply than it did in the first half of 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nBecause the actual deficit undershot the consensus estimate\, the initial market reaction was muted rather than sharply negative. Traders had already been braced for a wide number after the advance goods data on August 27 pointed to a 16-month high in the goods deficit\, so the full report largely confirmed rather than surprised the market. \nAttention now turns to how the wider net export drag feeds into third-quarter GDP tracking estimates and whether the Federal Reserve\, meeting later in September\, treats the trade data as a signal of resilient domestic demand or of tariff-related distortions still working through the system. Currency and rates markets are likely to keep their focus on the incoming September jobs and inflation data rather than trade figures alone. \nWhat this means for your money now\nA wider trade deficit on its own does not move mortgage rates or savings rates directly\, but it feeds into GDP calculations that the Federal Reserve watches when setting interest rates. If the import rebound reflects strong US consumer and business demand\, it supports the case for the Fed holding rates steady for longer\, which keeps mortgage and savings rates roughly where they are. A weaker dollar stemming from a persistently wide deficit would make imported goods\, including electronics and clothing from Asia and Europe\, more expensive for US shoppers\, while UK and eurozone exporters selling into the US could see a modest lift to their competitiveness.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-international-trade-balance-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260902T140000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260902T150000
DTSTAMP:20260903T123412Z
CREATED:20260902T114309Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260903T123412Z
UID:2511-1788357600-1788361200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Beige Book September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Beige Book: Economic activity expanded modestly since mid-July; employment rose very slightly; prices increased moderately; outlook described as positive but mixed by sector (Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London)). \n\nActual\nEconomic activity expanded modestly since mid-July; employment rose very slightly; prices increased moderately; outlook described as positive but mixed by sector\n\nFull schedule and background: Beige Book. \nUpdated September 3\, 2026 \n\nThe Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Beige Book\, published on September 2\, 2026\, described US economic activity as expanding modestly since mid-July\, with employment rising only very slightly and prices increasing moderately across most districts. \nThe Beige Book is a qualitative report on economic conditions across the United States\, published by the Federal Reserve eight times a year. The September 2026 edition is released on Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London time). It is not a rate decision: it is a briefing document that feeds into the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) discussion at its next meeting\, scheduled for September 15 to 16\, 2026. Full schedule and background: Beige Book. \nWhat is the Beige Book and what does it decide?\nThe Beige Book does not decide anything itself. It is a summary of anecdotal information on current economic conditions\, gathered by each of the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks through interviews with business contacts\, economists\, market experts and other sources in their district. One regional bank compiles and writes the national summary on a rotating basis. \nThe report covers areas such as employment\, wages\, prices\, consumer spending\, manufacturing\, real estate and lending conditions. Because it is qualitative rather than numeric\, it does not contain a headline figure the way a jobs report or inflation reading does. Instead it gives policymakers and markets a sense of how conditions are shifting on the ground\, ahead of the FOMC’s own reading of hard economic data. \nThe FOMC is the Federal Reserve committee responsible for setting the target range for the federal funds rate\, the interest rate at which banks lend reserves to one another overnight. It comprises the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board\, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York\, and four of the remaining eleven regional bank presidents on a rotating basis. The FOMC meets eight times a year\, and the Beige Book is published roughly two weeks before each of those meetings. \nWhen is the September 2026 Beige Book published?\nThe report is due Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm in London). There is no press conference attached to the Beige Book\, and it does not include economic projections or a dot plot\, those accompany the FOMC’s own statement. The next FOMC statement\, following this Beige Book\, is expected on September 16\, 2026\, alongside an updated Summary of Economic Projections. \nThe report is released simultaneously to the public on the Federal Reserve’s website\, with no embargoed access for market participants. \nWhat to expect\nBecause the Beige Book is descriptive rather than numeric\, there is no consensus forecast in the way there is for a rate decision or a jobs report: a consensus forecast has not yet been published for this specific edition\, and none is typically compiled by data providers such as Reuters or Bloomberg for this release. Analysts instead watch for changes in tone compared with the prior edition\, published in mid-July 2026\, particularly language around labour market softening\, tariff-related price pressures\, and consumer spending resilience. \nMarket pricing for the September 16\, 2026 FOMC decision\, tracked by tools such as the CME FedWatch tool\, reflects expectations built from incoming inflation and employment data rather than the Beige Book itself. Because the exact rate path for meetings between the writing of this page and September 2026 has not yet been confirmed\, readers should check the Federal Reserve’s official FOMC calendar and statements for the confirmed decision and rate level at each meeting\, rather than relying on any figure quoted here in advance. \nMarket impact scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nBeige Book describes a cooling labour market\nTraders may raise the odds of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting\, according to commentary typically seen from economists surveyed by Reuters\nIf businesses report hiring freezes or layoffs across several districts\, it strengthens the case for the Fed to lower borrowing costs to support growth\n\n\nBeige Book describes persistent price pressures\nMarkets may trim expectations for near-term rate cuts\nIf firms report they are still passing on higher costs to customers\, it suggests inflation is not yet fully under control\, which argues for the Fed to hold rates steady for longer\n\n\nBeige Book describes broadly stable\, modest growth\nMuted market reaction\, seen as consistent with a “wait and see” Fed\nIf conditions look steady across most districts\, it gives the FOMC little new reason to change course from its current stance\n\n\n\nWhat will the statement and press conference signal?\nThe Beige Book itself carries no statement or press conference\, but it shapes the discussion at the September FOMC meeting. Analysts watching that meeting will look for forward guidance on the pace of future rate moves\, the likelihood of dissenting votes among committee members\, and any changes to the pace at which the Fed is reducing its balance sheet\, the stock of Treasury and mortgage bonds it holds from previous rounds of quantitative easing. A press conference with the Federal Reserve Chair typically follows the rate announcement\, generally at 2:30 pm ET. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe Beige Book itself will not move mortgage rates or savings rates on its own\, but it can shift expectations for what the Fed does next\, which does affect borrowing costs. If the report points to a weakening labour market\, expectations of a rate cut can pull down yields on US Treasury bonds\, which influences fixed mortgage rates in the United States and\, to a lesser extent\, sentiment in UK and eurozone bond markets given how closely global rates are linked. \nFor savers\, an increased chance of Fed rate cuts can mean falling returns on cash savings and money market funds over time\, though existing fixed-rate savings products are unaffected until they mature. For borrowers with credit cards or variable-rate loans\, a softer Fed tone is generally good news\, as it raises the odds that borrowing costs ease later in the year. \nCurrency markets can react to a Beige Book that surprises on either side: a notably weak report can pressure the US dollar lower against the pound and the euro if it raises the odds of Fed cuts\, while a stronger-than-expected report can support the dollar. For pension savers and stock market investors\, expectations of lower US rates have often supported equity valuations\, though this is a general pattern rather than a guarantee\, and outcomes vary by sector and region. \nRelated events\n\nThe next Federal Reserve interest rate decision is due on September 16\, 2026\, following this Beige Book.\nUS inflation data (the Consumer Price Index) and the monthly jobs report are typically released in the weeks before each FOMC meeting and are watched alongside the Beige Book for signs of where policy is heading.\nThe previous Beige Book edition was published in mid-July 2026\, ahead of the July FOMC meeting.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the September 2026 Beige Book released?\nIt is published at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026\, which is 7:00 pm in London. \nDoes the Beige Book set interest rates?\nNo. It is a qualitative economic summary used by the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its rate decisions\, not a decision itself. \nWhen is the next Federal Reserve rate decision?\nThe FOMC is scheduled to meet on September 15 and 16\, 2026\, with the rate announcement due on September 16. \nWhere can I read the Beige Book?\nIt is published free on the Federal Reserve’s official Beige Book page. \nIs there a consensus forecast for the Beige Book?\nNo. Because it is a narrative report rather than a numeric release\, economists do not typically publish a consensus forecast for its content. \nResults: Beige Book\, September 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nOverall activity\nNot applicable (qualitative report)\nExpanded modestly since mid-July\, described as “positive” but mixed by sector\nModest growth reported in the July 15\, 2026 edition\n\n\nEmployment\nNot applicable\nRose very slightly overall; three districts reported modest gains\, four slight gains\, five no change\nEmployment edged up in July\, labour demand mixed\n\n\nPrices\nNot applicable\nIncreased moderately in eight of twelve districts; one district reported robust increases\nFirms passing on higher costs in the July edition\n\n\n\nThe September 2\, 2026 Beige Book\, published by the Federal Reserve at 2:00 pm ET\, described US economic activity as having expanded modestly over the two months since the previous edition\, with growth driven in part by demand from data centres\, according to Bloomberg. The outlook for coming months was characterised as positive\, though sentiment varied across sectors amid uncertainty over energy prices\, trade policy and geopolitical tensions. \nEmployment rose only very slightly across the twelve districts\, a softer reading than headline job growth might have suggested\, with five districts reporting no change at all. Prices increased moderately in most districts\, with one district describing the increases as robust\, a continuation of the pattern seen in the July edition and consistent with the FOMC’s ongoing concern about inflation not being fully back to target. Because the report is qualitative\, there was no numeric consensus for it to beat or miss\, so the release was read primarily as a directional confirmation of modest growth alongside sticky pricing pressure\, roughly in line with the “broadly stable\, modest growth” scenario outlined ahead of the release\, though with slightly firmer price language than that scenario implied. Full schedule and background: Beige Book. \nMarket Reaction\nEquities rose modestly on September 2\, 2026\, with Treasury yields easing slightly after the release\, according to CNBC’s market coverage. The Beige Book’s direct market impact was limited\, consistent with its usual role as background colour for the FOMC rather than a standalone catalyst. \nThe bigger driver of rate expectations heading into the September 15-16 FOMC meeting was not the Beige Book itself but comments from Fed Governor Kevin Warsh\, which pushed the odds of a rate move sharply higher on the CME FedWatch tool\, according to CNBC. The moderate price language in the Beige Book added modest support to the case that inflation pressures have not fully faded\, reinforcing rather than reversing that shift in rate expectations\, though traders continued to treat the FOMC’s own statement and projections on September 16 as the more decisive event for the rate path. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe Beige Book’s description of modest growth alongside moderate price increases does not\, on its own\, change the outlook for mortgages or savings rates. What matters more for households and investors in the United States\, the UK and the eurozone is the September 16 FOMC decision\, where firmer rate-hike odds following recent commentary could mean borrowing costs stay higher for longer than some had expected earlier in the summer. Savers holding cash or money market funds may see little near-term change\, while anyone with a variable-rate mortgage or loan should watch the FOMC statement itself rather than this report for a clearer signal.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/beige-book-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260902T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260902T130000
DTSTAMP:20260903T123310Z
CREATED:20260826T032211Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260903T123310Z
UID:2255-1788350400-1788354000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:CRM Earnings September 2026
DESCRIPTION:CRM Quarterly Earnings: Non-GAAP EPS $5.90 (vs $3.27 consensus)\, revenue $11.35bn (vs $11.32bn consensus)\, reported August 26\, 2026 (earlier than the September 2 estimated date) (Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London)). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nConsensus\nEarly estimate: EPS ~$3.09\, revenue ~$11.3bn (not yet a confirmed consensus for this date)\nActual\nNon-GAAP EPS $5.90 (vs $3.27 consensus)\, revenue $11.35bn (vs $11.32bn consensus)\, reported August 26\, 2026 (earlier than the September 2 estimated date)\n\nUpdated September 3\, 2026 \n\nSalesforce reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 results on August 26\, 2026\, posting non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.90 against a consensus estimate of $3.27 and revenue of $11.35 billion versus $11.32 billion expected\, a report that came out earlier than this page’s estimated September 2\, 2026 date. \nSalesforce (NYSE: CRM)\, the enterprise software group behind the world’s most widely used customer relationship management platform\, is scheduled to report its next quarterly results on Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026\, with the earnings release expected around 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London time) followed by a management call for investors. Salesforce has not yet confirmed the exact date\, so this is the market’s best estimate based on the company’s usual reporting pattern. Full schedule and background: CRM quarterly earnings. \nMarkets watch this release closely because Salesforce is one of the largest pure-play enterprise software companies globally\, and its results are treated as a bellwether for corporate technology spending\, AI adoption in business software\, and the health of the “software as a service” sector more broadly. A strong or weak quarter can move sentiment across the wider technology sector in the United States\, and feeds into how investors in Europe and Asia price other cloud and AI-linked stocks\, since many hold similar names in global technology and growth funds. \nWhat is Salesforce’s quarterly earnings report?\nEvery quarter\, Salesforce publishes its financial results covering revenue\, profit\, subscription growth and forward guidance for its Sales Cloud\, Service Cloud\, Data Cloud\, and its newer Agentforce artificial intelligence products. The report is prepared by Salesforce’s finance team and released as a press statement and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing\, followed by a live earnings call where chief executive Marc Benioff and chief financial officer typically discuss results and answer questions from Wall Street analysts. This particular report is expected to cover the company’s second quarter of its 2027 fiscal year (the three months to around July 31\, 2026). \nWhen is the CRM earnings report and how to follow it\nBased on Salesforce’s recent pattern of reporting on a Wednesday after the market closes\, the release is estimated for September 2\, 2026\, with the results statement typically followed by a live broadcast roughly two to five hours later. Salesforce normally streams its earnings call on its Investor Relations website\, and a replay is usually made available afterwards. Because the exact date has not been confirmed by the company\, investors should treat early September as an estimate rather than a fixed date; Salesforce typically announces its exact earnings date around two to three weeks in advance through a press release. \nWhat to expect\nConsensus figures for this specific quarter have not yet been widely published\, since the reporting date itself remains unconfirmed. However\, analysts surveyed by data providers were\, as of mid-2026\, projecting earnings per share of around $3.09 and revenue of roughly $11.3 billion for Salesforce’s next quarterly report\, according to nextearningsdate.com. These figures will likely be refined closer to the confirmed release date as more analysts publish updated estimates. \nInvestors are likely to focus on growth in Salesforce’s Data Cloud and Agentforce artificial intelligence products\, the pace of margin expansion\, remaining performance obligation (a measure of contracted future revenue)\, and any change to full-year guidance. Currency movements\, particularly a stronger dollar against the pound and euro\, are also a recurring swing factor for Salesforce’s international revenue given its large customer base outside the United States. \n\n\n\nQuarter\nRevenue\nEPS\nvs estimate\n\n\n\n\nQ1 FY2027 (reported May 27\, 2026)\nNot separately confirmed here\n$3.88\nBeat estimate of $2.96\n\n\nQ4 FY2026 (reported February 25\, 2026)\n$11.2 billion\n$3.81\nNot verified\n\n\nQ3 FY2026 (reported December 3\, 2025)\nNot separately confirmed here\n$3.25\nNot verified\n\n\nQ2 FY2026 (reported September 3\, 2025)\n$10.24 billion\n$2.91\nNot verified\n\n\n\nFigures are drawn from Salesforce’s own SEC filings and earnings coverage by nextearningsdate.com and public.com. Some revenue figures for individual quarters were not independently verified and are marked accordingly. \nWhat the outcome could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nPlain-English meaning\n\n\n\n\nBeat on earnings and revenue with raised guidance\nShares likely to rise; positive read-through for other enterprise software stocks\nSalesforce is growing faster than expected and management is more confident about the coming year\n\n\nIn line with analyst estimates\nMuted reaction\, attention shifts to guidance and AI product commentary\nThe business is performing broadly as expected\, with no major surprises either way\n\n\nMiss on earnings\, revenue or guidance\nShares likely to fall; could weigh on sentiment across cloud and software peers\nGrowth or profitability is slowing\, which may raise questions about corporate technology spending\n\n\n\nWhat It Means for Your Money\nSalesforce is a large constituent of major US stock indices\, so many people are exposed to its results indirectly through workplace pensions\, index funds and diversified investment portfolios\, even if they have never bought the shares directly. A sharp move in Salesforce’s share price on the back of this report can influence the broader technology sector and\, by extension\, the value of pension pots holding US equity funds in the UK and Europe. Currency effects matter too: because Salesforce earns significant revenue outside the United States\, a stronger or weaker dollar against the pound and euro can affect both the company’s reported results and how much a UK or European investor’s dollar-denominated holdings are worth when converted back. For consumers\, the report has limited direct effect on everyday prices\, mortgages or savings rates\, but a broad tech sell-off tied to disappointing enterprise software results can occasionally spill over into wider market sentiment and borrowing costs if it feeds into a broader risk-off mood. \nRelated events\n\nSalesforce’s prior quarterly report\, released May 27\, 2026\nBroader US technology and software sector earnings in the same reporting window\nUS Federal Reserve interest rate decisions\, which influence valuations across growth and technology stocks\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhen will Salesforce report its next earnings?\nThe report is estimated for September 2\, 2026\, though Salesforce has not yet confirmed the exact date; the company usually announces it two to three weeks in advance. \nWhat was Salesforce’s most recent earnings result?\nIn its most recent report\, for the quarter ended around April 2026\, Salesforce posted earnings per share of $3.88\, beating the average analyst estimate of $2.96\, according to public.com. \nIs there a consensus forecast for this specific quarter yet?\nA firm consensus for this exact reporting date has not yet been published\, but early estimates from data providers point to earnings per share of around $3.09 on revenue of roughly $11.3 billion. \nWhere can I watch the Salesforce earnings call?\nSalesforce typically streams its earnings call live on its Investor Relations website\, with a replay available afterwards for those unable to watch live. \nWhy does Salesforce’s earnings report matter beyond its own shareholders?\nAs one of the largest enterprise software companies globally\, its results are often used as a gauge of corporate technology and artificial intelligence spending\, which can influence sentiment across the wider software and technology sector. \nResults: Salesforce second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings\nSalesforce reported its second-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, after the market close\, earlier than the September 2\, 2026 date this page had estimated. The company had confirmed the earlier date in a separate announcement\, and the market had already priced in the outcome by the time this preview’s estimated date arrived. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior (Q1 FY2027)\n\n\n\n\nNon-GAAP EPS\n$3.27\n$5.90\n$3.88\n\n\nRevenue\n$11.32 billion\n$11.35 billion\, up 11% year on year\nNot separately confirmed here\n\n\n\nThe headline earnings figure beat the average analyst estimate compiled by LSEG and Zacks by roughly 80%\, according to CNBC and Zacks. Most of that gap came from a one-off $2.6 billion accounting gain on Salesforce’s equity stake in artificial intelligence company Anthropic\, rather than from the underlying software business. Stripping out that gain\, the beat against the operating consensus was closer to 3%\, a healthy but far smaller margin. \nRevenue growth of 11% was broadly in line with expectations and included a contribution from the Informatica acquisition. Salesforce raised its full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to a range of $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion and reported that annualised revenue from its Agentforce artificial intelligence products topped $1.5 billion\, up 240% year on year\, addressing investor concerns raised ahead of the print about the pace of AI-linked monetisation. \nMarket Reaction\nSalesforce shares jumped around 22% to 23% on Thursday\, August 27\, 2026\, marking one of the stock’s best single trading days on record\, according to CNBC and the Motley Fool. The rally was driven by the combination of the earnings beat\, the raised full-year guidance and news of an expanded partnership with Anthropic\, and it lifted sentiment across other enterprise software and cloud stocks on the day. \nDespite the surge\, Salesforce shares remained down for the year to date\, having fallen sharply earlier in 2026 on concerns about slowing subscription growth\, so the move was widely read by commentators as a partial recovery rather than a change in the stock’s longer-term trend. There was no reported disproportionate move in broader technology indices\, the dollar or Treasury yields directly attributable to the release\, since this was a single-company earnings event rather than a macroeconomic data point. \nWhat this means for your money now\nFor anyone holding US index funds\, technology funds or a workplace pension with US equity exposure\, Salesforce’s rebound added to returns in late August 2026\, though the stock remained below its level from earlier in the year\, so the net effect over a longer period was more muted than the single-day headline suggests. There is no direct effect on mortgages\, savings rates or everyday prices from this release; the main channel for ordinary savers is indirect\, through the value of pension and investment funds that hold Salesforce or broader technology exposure.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/crm-earnings-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Earnings Season
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260902T094500
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260902T104500
DTSTAMP:20260902T152647Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T152647Z
UID:1440-1788342300-1788345900@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Bank of Canada Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Held at 2.25% (7th straight hold); Bank Rate 2.50%\, deposit rate 2.20% (Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nHeld at 2.25% (7th straight hold); Bank Rate 2.50%\, deposit rate 2.20%\n\nFull schedule and background: Bank of Canada Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nThe Bank of Canada held its overnight rate target at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive decision on September 2\, 2026\, matching the hold widely expected by markets\, while flagging increased upside risks to inflation. \nThe Bank of Canada’s Governing Council announces its next interest rate decision on Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026\, at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London time). The announcement will confirm whether the overnight rate target stays at 2.25%\, where it has sat since the Bank’s last cut on October 29\, 2025\, or whether the Governing Council moves it up or down. This meeting does not include a Monetary Policy Report or press conference; those return at the October 28\, 2026 decision. Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada Rate Decision. \nWhat is the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council and what does it decide?\nThe Governing Council is the group of senior officials at the Bank of Canada responsible for setting monetary policy. It is chaired by the Governor\, currently Tiff Macklem\, alongside the Senior Deputy Governor and several Deputy Governors. Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England\, the Bank of Canada does not publish individual votes: decisions are reached by consensus among Governing Council members rather than a recorded ballot. \nThe Council’s mandate is inflation control\, targeting 2% annual growth in the consumer price index within a 1% to 3% band. It does this by setting the overnight rate\, the interest rate at which commercial banks lend to one another overnight\, which then feeds through to mortgage rates\, savings rates and business borrowing costs across the Canadian economy. \nThe Bank of Canada meets on a fixed schedule of eight rate announcements a year\, roughly every six to seven weeks. Four of these meetings\, typically in January\, April\, July and October\, are accompanied by a Monetary Policy Report setting out the Bank’s economic projections\, plus a press conference with the Governor. The other four\, including this September meeting\, are statement-only decisions with no press conference. \nWhen is the September Bank of Canada decision announced?\nThe decision is due on Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026\, at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London\, and mid-afternoon in continental Europe). The Bank releases a short statement explaining the rate decision at this time. There is no press conference or Monetary Policy Report attached to this particular meeting\, so market participants will have only the written statement to interpret on the day. A summary of the Governing Council’s deliberations is typically published around two weeks after each decision\, giving more detail on how members weighed the arguments for holding\, cutting or raising the rate. \nThe next meeting with a full Monetary Policy Report\, including updated growth and inflation projections plus a press conference\, is scheduled for October 28\, 2026. \nWhat to expect\nThe Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive decisions between December 2025 and July 2026\, according to Trading Economics. That run followed an aggressive easing cycle: the Bank cut rates nine times between June 2024 and October 2025\, taking the policy rate from 5% down to 2.25%\, before pausing to assess the impact of US tariffs and a “structural adjustment” in the Canadian economy\, in Governor Macklem’s words. \nA consensus forecast for the September 2\, 2026 decision has not yet been published by major polling organisations at the time of writing. Investors and economists typically firm up their expectations for a Bank of Canada meeting in the days beforehand\, based on domestic inflation and jobs data released in the intervening weeks\, and on pricing in the overnight index swap (OIS) market\, which reflects what traders are willing to pay to hedge against a rate move. Readers should check nearer the date for updated pricing from sources such as Reuters polls or Bloomberg surveys. \nThe table below shows the Bank’s last several decisions\, each sourced from the Bank of Canada’s own press releases. \n\n\n\nMeeting\nDecision\nRate after meeting\n\n\n\n\nSeptember 17\, 2025\nCut 25bp\n2.50%\n\n\nOctober 29\, 2025\nCut 25bp\n2.25%\n\n\nDecember 10\, 2025\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nJanuary 28\, 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nMarch 18\, 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nApril 29\, 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nJune 10\, 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\nJuly 15\, 2026\nHold\n2.25%\n\n\n\nMarket impact scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nHold at 2.25%\nA widely expected outcome after six straight holds would likely be read as a low-drama confirmation of the current stance\, with attention shifting to the statement’s wording on tariffs and growth\nBorrowing costs stay where they are for now\, and the Bank signals it is watching the data rather than committing to a direction\n\n\nCut to 2.00%\nA cut would suggest the Governing Council sees enough softness in jobs\, growth or underlying inflation to justify further support\, and could weaken the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and the euro\nCheaper borrowing for mortgages and business loans\, but a signal that officials are more worried about the economy slowing than about inflation\n\n\nHike above 2.25%\nConsidered the least likely path by most commentary through mid-2026\, a hike would be read as a response to a resurgence in inflation\, possibly tied to tariff pass-through or a weaker currency\, and could push the Canadian dollar higher\nMore expensive mortgages and loans\, but potentially better returns on savings accounts and fixed-income investments\n\n\n\nWhat will the statement and press conference signal?\nBecause this is a statement-only meeting\, the main signal will come from the wording the Bank uses to describe growth\, the labour market and the impact of US tariffs on Canadian exporters. Analysts typically parse phrases such as “proceeding carefully” or “prepared to respond” for hints about the Bank’s tolerance for further softness in the economy versus its resistance to reigniting inflation. Since the Bank of Canada does not publish individual votes\, there is no dissent count to track in the way there is at the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England\, though the summary of deliberations released roughly two weeks later can reveal how divided opinion was within the Governing Council. \nWatch for any reference to the Canadian dollar\, oil prices and global trade conditions\, all of which the Bank has flagged as swing factors for its outlook through 2025 and 2026. Also worth watching is any language about the “neutral range” for interest rates\, the level the Bank considers neither stimulative nor restrictive\, since officials have previously described the current 2.25% rate as sitting near the low end of that range. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor Canadian homeowners\, a hold at 2.25% means variable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit stay at their current level\, while fixed-rate mortgage pricing is driven more by bond yields than by the overnight rate itself. A cut would lower monthly payments for variable-rate borrowers and could nudge fixed rates down too\, while a hike would do the opposite. Savers with high-interest savings accounts or guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) would see slightly better returns if the Bank holds firm or raises rates\, and somewhat lower returns if it cuts. \nFor credit cards and personal loans\, most of which track the prime rate\, a Bank of Canada hold keeps borrowing costs stable\, while a cut typically feeds through to lower prime rates within a matter of weeks. Currency markets watch the decision closely too: a surprise cut tends to weaken the Canadian dollar against the US dollar\, the pound and the euro\, making imports from the UK and Europe more expensive for Canadian consumers and businesses\, while a surprise hike tends to strengthen it. \nPension funds and stock market investors\, both in Canada and internationally\, use the Bank’s rate path to price bonds and equities. Lower Canadian rates generally support share prices by reducing the appeal of holding cash\, while also affecting how UK and European pension funds with Canadian dollar exposure value their holdings. For UK and eurozone readers\, the Bank of Canada’s decisions are watched less directly than those of the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank\, but they still feed into broader expectations about how resilient North American demand is for UK and European exporters selling into Canada. \nRelated events\n\nPrevious decision: Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% on July 15\, 2026\nNext decision: the Bank of Canada’s following scheduled announcement\, with a full Monetary Policy Report and press conference\, is October 28\, 2026\nFull schedule and background on all Bank of Canada meetings: Bank of Canada Rate Decision\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Bank of Canada decision announced?\nThe decision is released at 9:45 am ET on September 2\, 2026\, which is 2:45 pm in London. \nWill the Bank of Canada cut rates in September 2026?\nThis is not yet known. The Bank has held its rate at 2.25% for six consecutive decisions through July 2026\, and any move will depend on inflation and labour market data released in the weeks before the meeting. \nWhat is the Bank of Canada’s current interest rate?\nThe overnight rate target has stood at 2.25% since the Bank’s last cut on October 29\, 2025\, most recently confirmed by a hold on July 15\, 2026. \nWhat is the Bank of Canada’s current interest rate?\nThe overnight rate target has stood at 2.25% since the Bank’s last cut on October 29\, 2025\, most recently confirmed by a hold on July 15\, 2026. \nWhen is the next Bank of Canada meeting after September 2026?\nThe next scheduled decision is October 28\, 2026\, which will include a full Monetary Policy Report and a press conference with the Governor. \nWhere can I watch the announcement?\nThe Bank of Canada publishes the statement directly on its website at the time of release. There is no press conference for this particular meeting since it is a statement-only decision. \nResults: Bank of Canada Rate Decision\, September 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nOvernight rate target\nHold at 2.25%\nHeld at 2.25%\n2.25% (held July 15\, 2026)\n\n\nBank Rate\n2.50%\n2.50%\n2.50%\n\n\nDeposit rate\n2.20%\n2.20%\n2.20%\n\n\n\nThe Bank of Canada held its overnight rate target at 2.25% on September 2\, 2026\, a seventh straight hold and a decision that Trading Economics described as fully “as expected by markets”. The Governing Council’s statement\, published on the Bank of Canada’s website\, said the Canadian economy had undergone a broad recovery in the second quarter\, but flagged that upside risks to inflation had increased\, pointing to higher gasoline prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and continuing US tariffs. \nThis lands closest to the “hold at 2.25%” scenario set out ahead of the meeting\, but with a twist: rather than the low-drama confirmation many had expected\, the statement carried what several outlets\, including InvestingLive\, called a “modestly hawkish tilt”. The Bank noted that financial conditions had tightened since July\, that long-term bond yields had moved up globally including in Canada\, and that the Canadian dollar had appreciated slightly on US dollar weakness. \nBecause this was a statement-only meeting\, there was no press conference or updated Monetary Policy Report to accompany the release\, and no vote count was published\, consistent with the Bank of Canada’s usual practice of reaching decisions by consensus rather than a recorded ballot. \nMarket Reaction\nThe Canadian dollar and shorter-term Government of Canada bond yields rose immediately after the release and the accompanying commentary\, a move that the Globe and Mail said suggested traders were digesting the statement as slightly hawkish rather than a routine hold. The reaction reflected the Bank’s flagged concern over rising inflation risks\, which reduced near-term expectations of a rate cut at the Bank’s next full decision\, due October 28\, 2026\, when the Bank will also publish an updated Monetary Policy Report and hold a press conference. \nCanada’s 10-year government bond yield had already been drifting higher into the decision\, trading near 3.74% on September 1\, 2026 according to Trading Economics\, and continued to firm alongside the currency in the hours after the announcement. For UK and eurozone investors\, the reaction was a reminder that North American bond markets remain sensitive to inflation risk even where central banks are holding rates steady\, a dynamic that has also weighed on gilt and Bund yields through 2026. \nWhat this means for your money now\nFor Canadian mortgage holders\, the hold keeps variable rates and most existing fixed-rate deals unchanged for now\, but the statement’s hawkish undertone reduces the odds that the Bank cuts again soon\, so borrowers hoping for near-term relief on renewal may need to wait longer than previously expected. Savers with high-interest accounts and GICs keep their current returns for now\, with less likelihood of a near-term drop. \nThe modest strengthening of the Canadian dollar makes imports from the UK and eurozone marginally cheaper for Canadian consumers and businesses\, while UK and European exporters selling into Canada see a small currency tailwind. The bigger signal for global investors is the statement’s emphasis on rising inflation risk tied to tariffs and Middle East-driven energy prices\, a theme that echoes concerns at other major central banks and could keep long-term borrowing costs elevated into the October 28\, 2026 decision.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260902T081500
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260902T091500
DTSTAMP:20260902T132604Z
CREATED:20260825T102058Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T132604Z
UID:1467-1788336900-1788340500@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US ADP Employment Report September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US ADP Employment Report: +38\,000 jobs (below 48\,000 consensus)\, prior revised to +46\,000 (Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026 at 8:15 am ET (1:15 pm London)). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nActual\n+38\,000 jobs (below 48\,000 consensus)\, prior revised to +46\,000\n\nFull schedule and background: US ADP Employment Report. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nUS private-sector employment rose by 38\,000 jobs in August 2026\, below the 48\,000 gain forecast by economists polled by Reuters\, and down from an upwardly revised 46\,000 in July\, according to the ADP National Employment Report released on September 2\, 2026. \nThe US ADP Employment Report for August 2026 is scheduled for release on September 2\, 2026 at 8:15 am ET (1:15 pm London time)\, published by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The report covers private-sector payroll changes and pay growth for August 2026. Full schedule and background: US ADP Employment Report. \nWhat is the ADP Employment Report?\nThe ADP National Employment Report measures the monthly change in private-sector jobs in the United States. Unlike the government’s official jobs figures\, it is built from anonymised payroll data covering more than 26 million employees at businesses that use ADP’s payroll systems\, rather than a survey. This gives it a real-time view of hiring and firing across the economy\, broken down by company size\, industry and region. \nAlongside the headline jobs number\, ADP publishes a pay growth measure that tracks annual wage changes separately for “job-stayers” (people who keep the same employer) and “job-changers” (people who switch jobs). A widening gap between the two can signal that employers are having to pay up to attract new staff\, a sign of a tight labour market\, or that job-switching has become less rewarding\, a sign of a cooling one. \nMarkets watch the release closely because it lands two days before the government’s official non-farm payrolls report on the first Friday of the month\, giving traders and economists an early\, if imperfect\, signal of what that bigger release might show. Historically\, ADP’s monthly figure has not tracked the official payrolls number with great precision\, so investors treat it as a directional guide rather than a firm prediction. \nWhen is the August ADP employment report released?\nADP has confirmed that the August 2026 National Employment Report will be published on September 2\, 2026 at 8:15 am ET (1:15 pm London time)\, according to ADP’s own press materials. ADP typically releases its monthly report on the Wednesday two business days before the US government’s non-farm payrolls report\, though the exact date can shift around holidays such as Labor Day. This page reflects the currently scheduled date; readers should treat the timing as ADP’s usual pattern unless the company issues a change. \nThe report is published on ADP’s own newsroom and research site\, and is picked up immediately by financial data providers and news wires. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 ADP report has not yet been published. Economist surveys for ADP releases are typically compiled by Reuters\, Bloomberg and Dow Jones in the days immediately before release\, so a forecast is likely to appear closer to September 2\, 2026. \nThe most recent published reading is for July 2026. Private-sector employment rose by 44\,000 jobs\, well below the 68\,000 to 70\,000 gain that economists polled by Dow Jones and Reuters had expected\, according to ADP’s July release. Annual pay growth for job-stayers held at 4.4% year-on-year\, while pay growth for job-changers accelerated to 7.0%. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nPrivate payrolls change\n+44\,000\nNot yet published\n\n\nAnnual pay growth\, job-stayers\n4.4%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nCould be read as evidence the labour market is holding up better than feared\, potentially reducing bets on near-term interest rate cuts\nMore jobs were added than expected\, which may ease worries about a sharp slowdown in hiring\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLikely to have limited market impact on its own\, with attention shifting quickly to the official payrolls report two days later\nThe labour market is behaving broadly as economists expected\, so little changes\n\n\nBelow consensus\nMay reinforce concerns about a cooling labour market and could firm up expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts\, according to commentary from economists cited by outlets such as Reuters and CNBC around prior releases\nFewer jobs were added than expected\, which can be a sign hiring is slowing\n\n\n\nThese are possible market reactions\, not predictions. ADP’s monthly figure has at times diverged sharply from the official non-farm payrolls number\, so any single reading is treated with caution by economists. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nPrivate-sector hiring has slowed markedly through 2026. ADP reported gains of 63\,000 in February\, 62\,000 in March\, 109\,000 in April and 122\,000 in May\, before hiring cooled sharply to 98\,000 in June (later revised to 95\,000) and then to just 44\,000 in July\, according to ADP’s own releases. ADP’s weekly “NER Pulse” data\, which tracks employment on a four-week rolling basis\, showed a pickup to roughly 9\,500 jobs added per week in the four weeks to August 1\, 2026\, following several weeks of decline\, according to ADP Research. \nThe Federal Reserve has repeatedly said it is watching labour market data closely as it weighs the pace of any further interest rate moves\, alongside inflation figures. A weak reading in the ADP report\, followed by a soft official payrolls number\, tends to strengthen market expectations for rate cuts\, while stronger figures can push those expectations back. Wage growth data also matters for the inflation outlook\, since persistent strong pay gains for job-switchers can signal continued upward pressure on labour costs. \n\n\n\nMonth\nPrivate payrolls change\n\n\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n+63\,000\n\n\nMarch 2026\n+62\,000\n\n\nApril 2026\n+109\,000\n\n\nMay 2026\n+122\,000\n\n\nJune 2026 (revised)\n+95\,000\n\n\nJuly 2026\n+44\,000\n\n\n\nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and loan rates: Weaker-than-expected hiring figures tend to increase bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts\, which can feed through to lower mortgage and borrowing rates in the US over time\, and can also influence sentiment in UK and eurozone bond markets given how closely global rate expectations are linked.\nSavings: If the jobs data supports further rate cuts\, savers holding cash in interest-bearing accounts may eventually see lower returns as central banks ease policy.\nJobs and wages: A slowdown in private hiring\, as seen through 2026\, can mean fewer job openings and slower wage growth for workers changing jobs\, though ADP data suggests pay for job-stayers has remained fairly stable.\nInvestments and pensions: Equity markets often react to jobs data because it shapes expectations for interest rates\, which affect company borrowing costs and valuations. A much weaker or stronger than expected reading can move US stock indices and\, through global market linkages\, indices in London\, Frankfurt and Tokyo.\nCurrencies: A weak US jobs signal can weigh on the dollar if it strengthens expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts\, which in turn can support the value of the pound and the euro against the dollar\, all else being equal.\n\nRelated events\n\nUS non-farm payrolls report\, typically released the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\nFederal Reserve interest rate decisions\, which weigh labour market data alongside inflation figures.\nUS weekly jobless claims data\, released every Thursday by the Department of Labor.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the August ADP employment report released?\nIt is scheduled for 8:15 am ET\, which is 1:15 pm London time\, on September 2\, 2026. \nHow should I read the ADP employment number?\nFocus on the direction of the change in private payrolls and the trend over recent months\, rather than the single monthly figure\, since it can be volatile and does not always match the official government jobs report. \nHow does this report affect interest rate expectations?\nWeaker-than-expected job gains can increase market bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts\, while stronger figures can reduce them\, though the Fed weighs many other data points too. \nWhere can I find the official ADP release?\nThe report is published on ADP’s own newsroom and on the ADP Research website\, and is also carried immediately by major financial data providers. \nWhen is the next ADP employment report?\nADP typically releases its report on the first Wednesday of each month\, two business days before the official non-farm payrolls report\, so the next release is expected in early October 2026. \nResults: US ADP Employment Report\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nPrivate payrolls change\n+48\,000\n+38\,000\n+46\,000 (revised from +44\,000)\n\n\n\nUS private-sector employment rose by 38\,000 jobs in August 2026\, according to the ADP National Employment Report\, missing the 48\,000 gain forecast by economists polled by Reuters and coming in below July’s upwardly revised figure of 46\,000 jobs. The reading confirms the “below consensus” scenario flagged in ADP’s preview\, extending a run of soft private hiring figures through the summer of 2026. \nADP’s chief economist Nela Richardson said pay data offers insight into today’s uneven hiring\, noting that “pay can tell us a lot about today’s choppy hiring”. Vanguard senior economist Adam Schickling said the softer labour market this summer follows a stronger spring\, according to Fox Business. The report was published\, as usual\, two days ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ non-farm payrolls report for August\, due on Friday\, which remains the more closely watched government measure of the labour market. \nMarket Reaction\nTreasury yields eased modestly and the dollar softened against the pound and the euro after the release\, as traders leaned further into expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts\, according to Reuters. The reaction was measured rather than dramatic\, reflecting the market’s long-standing caution about treating any single ADP print as a reliable forecast of Friday’s official payrolls figure. \nUS equity index futures showed only a limited move immediately after the 8:15 am ET release\, with investors largely holding positions ahead of the more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report. In Europe and Asia\, the weaker US print added modestly to a narrative of a cooling US labour market that has\, over recent months\, supported gilts and eurozone government bonds as global rate expectations have shifted lower. \nWhat this means for your money now\nA fourth consecutive soft private payrolls reading keeps alive the possibility of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts\, which could eventually feed through to lower US mortgage and borrowing costs\, with knock-on effects for global bond markets including UK gilts. Savers holding cash may see returns drift lower over time if this trend continues\, though the ADP figure alone is unlikely to shift central bank decisions without confirmation from Friday’s official jobs report.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-adp-employment-report-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260901T220000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260901T230000
DTSTAMP:20260902T124905Z
CREATED:20260825T102335Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T124905Z
UID:1468-1788300000-1788303600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:RBNZ Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:RBNZ Rate Decision: OCR raised 25bp to 2.75%\, decision by consensus (no vote required) (Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026 at 2:00 pm NZST (10:00 pm ET\, 3:00 am London)). \n\nConsensus\nA consensus forecast has not yet been published for this meeting\nActual\nOCR raised 25bp to 2.75%\, decision by consensus (no vote required)\n\nFull schedule and background: RBNZ Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on September 2\, 2026\, matching consensus forecasts from New Zealand’s major bank economics teams and marking its second consecutive increase. \nThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision on Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026 at 10:00 pm ET (3:00 am London on Thursday\, September 3\, and 2:00 pm in Wellington). This is a Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) meeting\, which means it comes with updated economic projections and an OCR track\, followed by a press conference with the Governor. The decision sets the interest rate that underpins borrowing costs across New Zealand and feeds through to currency and bond markets in Australia\, Asia and\, to a lesser extent\, the UK and eurozone. \nWhat is the Monetary Policy Committee and what does it decide?\nThe Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the body inside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand responsible for setting the Official Cash Rate\, the interest rate the central bank charges on overnight lending to commercial banks. Changes to the OCR ripple through to mortgage rates\, business loans and savings account returns across New Zealand within weeks. \nThe MPC’s remit under New Zealand’s Remit for the Monetary Policy Committee is to keep annual consumer price inflation between 1% and 3% over the medium term\, with a focus on the 2% midpoint\, while supporting maximum sustainable employment. The committee includes the Governor\, the Deputy Governor and other internal Reserve Bank staff\, alongside external members appointed by the Minister of Finance. Decisions are reached by consensus where possible; if members disagree\, a majority vote decides the outcome\, though the RBNZ does not publish an individual vote breakdown in the way the US Federal Reserve or Bank of England do. \nSince 2026\, the RBNZ has held seven scheduled OCR decisions a year\, four of which are full Monetary Policy Statements with fresh forecasts\, and three are shorter Monetary Policy Reviews. The Reserve Bank has said it will move to eight decisions a year from 2027 once monthly rather than quarterly inflation data becomes available\, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s published decision schedule. \nWhen is the September RBNZ decision announced?\nThe September 2026 OCR announcement is scheduled for Wednesday\, September 2\, 2026 at 10:00 pm ET\, which is 3:00 am in London the following morning and 2:00 pm New Zealand time. As a Monetary Policy Statement meeting\, the release includes the rate decision\, the committee’s updated OCR track (its own projection of where it expects the rate to sit over coming years) and a summary record of the meeting. The Governor holds a press conference shortly after the statement is published\, where journalists question the committee on its reasoning and the balance of risks it sees to growth and inflation. \nThe following scheduled decision\, a Monetary Policy Review without full projections\, falls on October 28\, 2026\, with the next full Monetary Policy Statement due on December 9\, 2026\, based on the Reserve Bank’s confirmed 2026 to 2028 calendar. \nWhat to expect\nNew Zealand’s rate path has been on an easing trajectory since 2024. At the most recently confirmed decision covered in this preview\, the August 2025 Monetary Policy Review\, the RBNZ cut the OCR by 25 basis points (a basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point) from 3.25% to 3.00%\, in line with market expectations reported by FXStreet’s coverage of the meeting. At that meeting\, acting Governor Christian Hawkesby said the OCR projection troughed around 2.5%\, consistent with further cuts if medium-term inflation pressures kept easing\, and that headline inflation was expected to return to around the 2% target midpoint by mid-2026. \nBecause this preview is published well ahead of the September 2026 meeting\, a market-wide consensus forecast for this specific decision has not yet been published. Readers should check overnight index swap pricing and economist previews from banks such as ANZ\, Westpac\, ASB and BNZ closer to the date\, as these are typically published in the days before each MPS. The Reserve Bank’s own August 2025 guidance pointed toward a lower OCR by 2026\, so any decision to hold\, cut further or pause the easing cycle in September 2026 will depend on how New Zealand inflation\, wages and the labour market have evolved in the intervening quarters. \n\n\n\nMeeting\nDecision\nRate after meeting\n\n\n\n\nAugust 2025 (Monetary Policy Review)\nCut 25bp\n3.00%\n\n\n\nThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand publishes its full OCR decision history on its official website. Rows for meetings between August 2025 and September 2026 are omitted here because they had not yet occurred\, or could not be independently verified\, at the time of writing. \nMarket impact scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nHold\nTraders would likely read a hold as a sign the RBNZ believes the easing cycle has done enough for now\, supporting the New Zealand dollar in the short term\nBorrowing costs stay where they are; no immediate change to mortgage or savings rates\n\n\nCut\nA cut\, particularly a larger one\, would generally be read as dovish and tends to weaken the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar\, pound and euro\nCheaper borrowing over time for mortgages and business loans\, but lower returns on savings accounts and term deposits\n\n\nGuidance shift\nEven without a rate change\, a shift in the OCR track or the tone of the statement can move currency and bond markets sharply\nThe bank signals its future intentions\, which can move mortgage rates and the currency before any actual rate change happens\n\n\n\nWhat will the statement and press conference signal?\nAnalysts watching the September 2026 statement will focus on the updated OCR track\, which shows the committee’s own expectation for the path of interest rates over the next two to three years. A track pointing lower signals more cuts are likely; a flatter track suggests the committee sees rates near their appropriate medium-term level\, sometimes described as the “neutral” rate\, the level that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity. \nOther things to watch include any dissent within the committee\, commentary on the exchange rate (a weaker New Zealand dollar can push up import prices and complicate the inflation outlook)\, and any reference to the housing market\, since mortgage rates are one of the main channels through which OCR changes affect New Zealand households. The Governor’s press conference often provides more colour on the balance of risks than the written statement alone\, including how the committee is weighing global growth risks against domestic capacity pressures. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor New Zealand mortgage holders\, the OCR decision matters directly: banks typically adjust floating and short-term fixed mortgage rates within days of an RBNZ move\, so a cut can lower monthly repayments while a hold keeps them steady. Savers with term deposits or online savings accounts usually see the reverse effect\, with lower OCR settings gradually reducing the interest banks pay on deposits. \nFor people outside New Zealand\, the decision is smaller in scale than a Federal Reserve\, European Central Bank or Bank of England move\, but it still matters. The New Zealand dollar tends to weaken when the RBNZ cuts rates or signals further easing\, which affects the cost of New Zealand exports such as dairy and the returns for anyone holding New Zealand dollar assets\, bonds or funds. Investors in Australian and Asian equity markets sometimes treat RBNZ decisions as an early read on how commodity-exporting\, rate-sensitive economies are responding to global conditions\, though the direct read-through to UK or eurozone mortgages and savings rates is limited. Pension funds and multi-asset portfolios with New Zealand or Australasian exposure may see modest currency and bond price effects around the announcement. \nAnyone with credit cards or personal loans linked to floating rates in New Zealand will also feel OCR changes more quickly than those on fixed-rate products\, since fixed rates only reset when the current term expires. \nRelated events\n\nThe next scheduled OCR decision after this one is the Monetary Policy Review on October 28\, 2026\, followed by the final Monetary Policy Statement of the year on December 9\, 2026.\nNew Zealand’s Consumers Price Index (CPI) release\, published quarterly by Stats NZ\, is the key inflation data the committee reviews ahead of each Monetary Policy Statement.\nNew Zealand labour market data\, including the Household Labour Force Survey and quarterly wage figures\, are published in the weeks before each MPS and help the committee judge how much spare capacity remains in the economy.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the RBNZ September 2026 decision announced?\nThe decision is released at 10:00 pm ET on September 2\, 2026\, which is 3:00 am in London on September 3 and 2:00 pm in Wellington\, New Zealand. \nWill the RBNZ cut rates in September 2026?\nThis is not yet known. As of publication\, a consensus forecast for this specific meeting has not been published; the Reserve Bank’s own August 2025 projections pointed toward further cuts over time\, but the eventual September 2026 decision will depend on inflation and labour market data released in the intervening months. \nWhat is the current Official Cash Rate?\nThe most recently confirmed OCR level available at the time of writing was 3.00%\, set after a 25 basis point cut in August 2025. Readers should check the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s official OCR history page for any decisions made between then and September 2026. \nWhen is the next RBNZ decision after September 2026?\nThe next scheduled decision is a Monetary Policy Review on October 28\, 2026\, with the following full Monetary Policy Statement due on December 9\, 2026. \nWhere can I watch the RBNZ press conference?\nThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand livestreams the Governor’s press conference on its official website and YouTube channel shortly after the written statement is released. \nResults: RBNZ Rate Decision September 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nOfficial Cash Rate\n25bp hike to 2.75%\n25bp hike to 2.75%\n2.50% (July 8\, 2026)\n\n\n\nThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee raised the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on September 2\, 2026\, its second consecutive increase after lifting the rate from 2.25% to 2.50% in July. The move matched forecasts from New Zealand’s five major bank economics teams\, ANZ\, ASB\, BNZ\, Westpac and Kiwibank\, all of whom had pointed to a hike rather than a hold\, according to a preview published by Luminate. The Committee reached the decision by consensus\, meaning no formal vote was required. \nThe scenario that landed was the one most analysts had flagged as most likely going into the meeting: continued\, gradual tightening rather than a pause or a return to cuts. Annual inflation had climbed to 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter\, above the top of the Reserve Bank’s 1% to 3% target range\, driven largely by higher fuel and related costs linked to the Middle East conflict\, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s official statement. The Committee said gradually removing monetary stimulus reduces the risk that the OCR needs to rise by more later. \nUpdated projections showed the Committee’s average OCR forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 easing slightly to 2.81%\, from 2.84% in the May Monetary Policy Statement\, according to analysis published by ActionForex. That track is broadly consistent with a pause at the October 28\, 2026 review followed by a further 25 basis point increase in December\, rather than back-to-back hikes at every remaining meeting this year. \nMarket Reaction\nThe New Zealand dollar fell against major peers immediately after the announcement\, even though the rate rise itself matched expectations\, because traders judged the Committee’s forward guidance to be more cautious than the hawkish tone seen at the July meeting\, based on ActionForex’s live commentary on the decision. The Australian dollar extended its advance against the kiwi on the same day\, helped by stronger than forecast Australian second-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%\, according to reporting from Tradingpedia. \nNew Zealand’s 2-year swap rate\, a market gauge of expected average short-term interest rates\, fell around 8 basis points following the statement\, suggesting investors trimmed bets on further near-term tightening even as the Committee kept its tightening bias intact. Markets were pricing roughly a 30% probability of another 25 basis point hike at the October 28 review\, with a fuller move seen as more likely in December\, according to ActionForex’s post-meeting review. The muted currency reaction to a widely expected hike illustrates how\, in rates markets\, the accompanying guidance and the updated OCR track often move prices more than the headline decision itself. \nKey takeaways from the statement\n\nThe Committee raised the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.75%\, its second consecutive hike\, reached by consensus with no formal vote required.\nAnnual CPI inflation stood at 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter\, above the top of the 1% to 3% target band\, largely reflecting higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.\nThe updated OCR track pointed to an average rate of 2.81% in the fourth quarter of 2026\, slightly lower than the 2.84% projected in the May Monetary Policy Statement\, implying a probable pause in October before a further move in December.\nThe Committee said gradually removing monetary stimulus lowers the risk that the OCR will need to rise by more later\, and that future decisions depend on its judgement of the balance of risks to medium-term inflation.\nThe Reserve Bank raised its very near-term growth forecasts but trimmed its medium-term growth outlook\, reflecting a softer view of household consumption\, according to ActionForex’s review of the statement.\n\nWhat this means for your money now\nNew Zealand mortgage holders on floating or short-term fixed rates are likely to see another modest increase in borrowing costs following this second consecutive hike\, while savers with term deposits and online savings accounts should see deposit rates edge up further. Anyone with a fixed-rate mortgage due for renewal in the coming months faces a higher starting rate than borrowers who fixed earlier in the cycle. \nFor readers outside New Zealand\, the immediate currency reaction was smaller than the rate move alone might suggest\, since the New Zealand dollar actually weakened despite the hike. Investors holding New Zealand dollar assets\, exporters pricing in New Zealand dollars\, and anyone tracking the Australian dollar against the kiwi should note that the guidance in the accompanying statement\, not just the headline rate\, is driving near-term currency moves\, with continuing implications for cross-border payments and NZD-denominated investments.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/rbnz-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260901T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260901T110000
DTSTAMP:20260902T132514Z
CREATED:20260825T102211Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T132514Z
UID:1658-1788256800-1788260400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US JOLTS Job Openings September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US JOLTS Job Openings: 7.271 million job openings (below 7.300 million consensus)\, up from a revised 7.182 million in June (Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nActual\n7.271 million job openings (below 7.300 million consensus)\, up from a revised 7.182 million in June\n\nFull schedule and background: US JOLTS Job Openings. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nUS job openings rose slightly to 7.271 million in July 2026\, just below the 7.300 million consensus\, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on September 1\, 2026. \nThe US JOLTS Job Openings report for July 2026 is released on Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026\, at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London) by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\, known as JOLTS\, is a monthly measure of labour demand across the US economy\, and this edition covers hiring\, quits and layoff activity during July 2026. \nWhat is JOLTS Job Openings?\nJOLTS Job Openings counts the number of unfilled positions employers were actively trying to fill on the last business day of the reference month. It is one of four headline measures in the same survey\, alongside hires\, quits and total separations (which includes layoffs and discharges). The BLS collects the data from a sample of around 21\,000 US business establishments across the public and private sector. \nThe report matters because it shows the demand side of the labour market rather than just the supply side captured by the unemployment rate. A high number of openings relative to the number of unemployed people signals a tight labour market where workers have more bargaining power over pay. A falling number of openings\, especially alongside fewer quits\, tends to signal that employers are pulling back on hiring plans before layoffs typically rise. \nBecause JOLTS data is one month behind other labour market indicators such as the monthly jobs report\, economists and the Federal Reserve treat it as a slower-moving but useful cross-check on whether the labour market is cooling gradually or losing momentum quickly. Quits\, in particular\, are watched closely because workers tend to resign more often when they are confident about finding another job. \nWhen is the July 2026 JOLTS report released?\nThe BLS is scheduled to publish the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July 2026 on September 1\, 2026\, at 10:00 am Eastern Time\, according to the BLS JOLTS homepage. In London that is 3:00 pm. The release is published free of charge on the BLS website alongside detailed tables broken down by industry\, region and establishment size. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the July 2026 JOLTS Job Openings figure has not yet been published by major polling services. Economists’ estimates typically firm up in the days immediately before release\, so readers should check a live economic calendar closer to September 1\, 2026 for an updated median forecast. \nThe most recent published reading is for June 2026. According to the BLS June 2026 JOLTS release\, job openings were little changed at 7.4 million\, hires were unchanged at 5.3 million\, and total separations were little changed at 5.4 million. Within separations\, quits held at 3.2 million and layoffs and discharges held at 1.8 million. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (June 2026)\nConsensus (July 2026)\n\n\n\n\nJob openings\n7.4 million\nNot yet published\n\n\nQuits\n3.2 million\nNot yet published\n\n\nLayoffs and discharges\n1.8 million\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus (more openings than expected)\nCould be read as a sign the labour market is holding up better than feared\, which may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly\nEmployers still have plenty of unfilled roles\, which can support wage growth and consumer spending\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLikely to have limited market impact on its own\, with attention shifting to quits and layoffs detail and the following week’s jobs report\nThe labour market is behaving broadly as expected\, neither strengthening nor weakening sharply\n\n\nBelow consensus (fewer openings than expected)\nMay be interpreted as a cooling labour market\, which some traders could see as increasing the chance of a Fed rate cut\nEmployers are pulling back on hiring plans\, which can eventually flow through to slower wage growth or job losses\n\n\n\nThese are possible interpretations\, not predictions. Actual market reaction depends on the wider mix of data released that week and on where interest rate expectations already stand. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe Federal Reserve has repeatedly said it is watching the balance between its inflation and employment goals\, and JOLTS is one of the inputs officials use to judge whether the labour market is cooling in an orderly way. Job openings have drifted down gradually since the post-pandemic peak\, and the June 2026 print of 7.4 million continues that gentle softening trend\, according to the BLS. The May 2026 figure was revised down by 57\,000 to 7.5 million\, based on the BLS revisions note\, a reminder that JOLTS figures are frequently revised as more survey responses come in. \nMarkets outside the US pay attention to this data because Fed policy shapes global borrowing costs. When US job openings soften and rate cut expectations build\, the dollar can weaken against the pound and euro\, and government bond yields in the UK and eurozone often move in sympathy with US Treasury yields. \n\n\n\nMonth\nJob openings\nHires\nQuits\nLayoffs and discharges\n\n\n\n\nMay 2026 (revised)\n7.5 million\n5.2 million\n3.1 million\n1.7 million\n\n\nJune 2026\n7.4 million\n5.3 million\n3.2 million\n1.8 million\n\n\n\nSource: BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary and BLS archive release. Only figures that could be verified from the official BLS release are shown here. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nMortgages and borrowing costs: a weaker JOLTS reading can raise expectations of Fed interest rate cuts\, which sometimes feeds through to lower long-term US mortgage rates. In the UK and eurozone\, mortgage pricing is driven mainly by domestic central bank decisions\, but global bond yields still have some influence on fixed-rate deals. \nSavings rates: if the data feeds expectations of lower US interest rates\, banks may eventually offer lower returns on cash savings and money market funds\, though this usually takes months to filter through. \nJobs and wages: a falling number of job openings\, especially alongside fewer quits\, can be an early sign that it is becoming harder to find a new role or negotiate a pay rise\, since workers typically resign more when they are confident about landing another job. \nPrices: a cooling labour market can eventually ease inflation pressure because employers have less need to raise wages to attract staff\, though the link to prices in shops takes time to show up. \nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: shares and government bonds can move on the day of release as traders reprice Fed rate cut odds. A softer US labour market often weakens the dollar against the pound and euro\, which affects the value of any US assets held by non-US pension funds and investors. \nRelated events\n\nThe August 2026 US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate report\, published separately by the BLS\nThe next Federal Reserve interest rate decision\, which weighs labour market data including JOLTS\nThe August 2026 JOLTS report\, due for release the following month\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the July 2026 JOLTS report released?\nThe BLS publishes the report at 10:00 am Eastern Time on September 1\, 2026\, which is 3:00 pm in London. \nHow should I read the job openings number?\nFocus on the direction of travel rather than a single month. A falling trend in openings alongside falling quits usually points to a cooling labour market\, while a rising trend suggests continued labour demand. \nHow does JOLTS affect interest rates?\nThe Federal Reserve uses JOLTS alongside the monthly jobs report and inflation data to judge labour market strength. A weaker than expected reading can raise expectations of interest rate cuts\, while a stronger reading can reduce them. \nWhere can I find the official JOLTS release?\nThe full release\, including detailed tables by industry and region\, is published on the BLS JOLTS homepage. \nWhen is the next JOLTS report due?\nThe BLS typically publishes JOLTS around five weeks after the reference month ends\, so the August 2026 data is expected roughly a month after this release\, in early October 2026. \nResults: US JOLTS Job Openings\, July 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nJob openings\n7.300 million\n7.271 million\n7.182 million (revised\, June 2026)\n\n\nHires\nNot separately polled\n5.1 million\n5.1 million\n\n\nQuits\nNot separately polled\n3.1 million (rate 1.9%)\n3.2 million\n\n\nLayoffs and discharges\nNot separately polled\n1.7 million (rate 1.0%)\n1.8 million\n\n\n\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings ticked up to 7.271 million in July 2026\, according to the official BLS release. The figure came in slightly below the 7.300 million consensus tracked by InvestingLive\, but it landed inside the middle scenario described in the preview: broadly in line with expectations rather than a sharp beat or miss. \nThe prior month’s reading was revised down noticeably\, from the originally reported 7.4 million for June to 7.182 million\, a reminder that JOLTS figures are frequently revised as more survey responses arrive. Hires held steady at 5.1 million\, quits eased slightly to 3.1 million with the quits rate at 1.9%\, and layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.7 million with the layoffs rate holding at 1.0%. Durable goods manufacturing openings rose by 76\,000 on the month\, according to InvestingLive. \nABC News described the labour market as remaining sturdy despite higher costs\, noting that openings rose from the revised June figure even as they missed the consensus estimate. The mix of a modest month-on-month rise but a downward revision to the prior month leaves the underlying trend broadly flat rather than clearly strengthening or weakening. \nMarket Reaction\nUS stocks fell on September 1\, 2026\, as oil prices pushed above $95 a barrel and government bond yields rose sharply\, with the 10-year Treasury yield touching its highest level since January 2025\, according to Yahoo Finance and CNBC. Global yields rose in tandem\, with Japan’s 10-year yield at its highest since 1996 and Germany’s benchmark yield at a 2011 high\, as traders focused on inflation risk from oil rather than the labour market data. \nBecause the JOLTS print landed close to expectations and the broader session was dominated by the oil and bond-yield story\, traders did not attribute a clear\, isolated move in equities\, Treasuries or the dollar to the job openings figure itself. The report added to a picture of a labour market that is cooling gradually rather than sharply\, which market commentary linked to ongoing uncertainty over the size and timing of the Federal Reserve’s slower path of interest rate cuts at its meeting later in September. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook is broadly unchanged for now. A near-consensus JOLTS print did not shift interest rate expectations meaningfully on its own\, so the near-term picture for mortgage rates\, savings rates and the pound and euro against the dollar continues to hinge more on incoming inflation data\, the jobs report due later in the week\, and the Federal Reserve’s meeting in September.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-jolts-job-openings-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260901T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260901T110000
DTSTAMP:20260902T132407Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T132407Z
UID:1439-1788256800-1788260400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US ISM Manufacturing PMI: 54.6% (August 2026)\, below the 55.2 consensus and down from July's 55.6% (Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London)). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nActual\n54.6% (August 2026)\, below the 55.2 consensus and down from July's 55.6%\n\nFull schedule and background: US ISM Manufacturing PMI. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nThe ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 came in at 54.6%\, below the 55.2% consensus forecast and down from July’s 55.6% reading\, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s release on September 1\, 2026. \nThe US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 is scheduled for release on Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Because this date falls in the future relative to when this page was prepared\, the exact release date is an estimate based on ISM’s usual pattern of publishing on the first business day of the month; the report covers manufacturing activity during August 2026. Full schedule and background on this indicator: US ISM Manufacturing PMI. \nWhat is the ISM Manufacturing PMI?\nThe ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly survey-based indicator that measures the health of the US manufacturing sector. It is compiled by the Institute for Supply Management\, a trade body that surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of manufacturing firms across the country each month. \nThe headline number is a diffusion index built from five equally weighted sub-components: new orders\, production\, employment\, supplier deliveries and inventories. A reading above 50 means manufacturing activity is expanding compared with the previous month; a reading below 50 signals contraction. The distance from 50 indicates the pace of change\, so a reading of 55 suggests faster expansion than 51. \nMarkets watch the ISM Manufacturing PMI closely because it is one of the earliest hard-data-adjacent readings available each month\, arriving before official government figures such as factory orders or industrial production. Central banks\, including the Federal Reserve\, use it as a real-time gauge of business conditions\, and it often moves bond yields\, the dollar and equity futures within minutes of release\, particularly the new orders and prices paid sub-indices. \nWhen is the September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI released?\nThe report is expected on Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026 at 10:00 am Eastern Time\, which is 3:00 pm in London. It is published by the Institute for Supply Management on its official website\, ismworld.org\, and is simultaneously distributed to newswires including Reuters and Bloomberg. Because ISM typically releases this report on the first business day of the month\, and the exact publication calendar for late 2026 had not yet been formally confirmed at the time this page was prepared\, the date above should be treated as an estimate rather than a locked date. Readers should check the ISM’s official release calendar closer to the time to confirm. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs this page was prepared well ahead of the release\, no consensus forecast from a Reuters or Bloomberg survey of economists had yet been published for the September 2026 report\, and the prior month’s actual reading was not yet available either. Both figures are typically published in the days immediately before the release\, so they should be checked again closer to September 1\, 2026. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026 reading)\nConsensus (August 2026 reading)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline PMI\nNot yet published\nNot yet published\n\n\nNew Orders Index\nNot yet published\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhen the figures do become available\, the headline PMI and the new orders sub-index are usually the two numbers economists and traders focus on first\, since new orders tend to lead the headline figure by a month or two. \nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nCould be read as a sign of resilient manufacturing demand\, potentially supporting the dollar and reducing near-term expectations of interest rate cuts if inflation-related sub-indices such as prices paid also rise\nFactories are busier than expected\, which can be good for jobs and profits but may also keep price pressures elevated\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLikely to have a muted market reaction\, since the outcome would already be priced into stocks\, bonds and currencies\nThe manufacturing sector is performing broadly as expected\, with no major surprises for policy or growth outlooks\n\n\nBelow consensus\nMay be interpreted as a sign of softening demand\, which could increase bets on future interest rate cuts and weigh on the dollar\, while sometimes lifting government bond prices\nFactories are seeing weaker orders or output than hoped\, which can be an early warning sign for hiring and wider economic growth\n\n\n\nThese are illustrative possibilities rather than predictions. Actual market reactions depend on the wider macroeconomic backdrop at the time\, including what the Federal Reserve has recently signalled about interest rates and how other data releases that week\, such as the jobs report\, are trending. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nManufacturing accounts for a smaller share of US output than services\, but the ISM Manufacturing PMI remains one of the most closely tracked business surveys because it is timely\, covers the whole country\, and has a long history that allows for comparison across economic cycles. The Federal Reserve pays attention to the survey’s employment and prices paid components in particular\, since they can offer early clues on labour market tightness and cost pressures feeding into broader inflation. \nSince manufacturing supply chains span the globe\, the report is also watched outside the United States. A weaker than expected US manufacturing sector can be a signal for exporters in the UK\, the eurozone and Asia that face demand from American factories and retailers\, while a stronger reading can support commodity prices and currencies tied to industrial demand\, such as the Australian dollar. \nBecause specific prior and consensus figures for this release were not available at the time of writing\, readers should treat any discussion of “the current trend” with caution until the actual numbers for the months leading up to September 2026 are published on the ISM’s official site. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing rates: a surprisingly strong or weak PMI can shift expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions\, which in turn influences US mortgage rates and\, indirectly\, global bond yields that feed into UK and European fixed mortgage pricing.\nSavings rates: if the data pushes traders to expect fewer or later interest rate cuts\, savings account and money market fund rates in the US may stay higher for longer; the opposite is true if the data suggests a weakening economy.\nJobs and wages: the employment sub-index within the PMI can hint at hiring intentions among manufacturers\, which is relevant for anyone working in or supplying to industrial sectors\, from the US Midwest to manufacturing hubs in Germany and East Asia.\nInvestments and pensions: equity markets\, particularly industrial and materials stocks\, tend to react to surprises in this data\, which can affect the value of pension funds and index-tracking investments held by ordinary savers.\nCurrencies: a stronger than expected reading can support the US dollar against the pound and the euro\, making US imports relatively cheaper for American consumers but potentially raising the cost of dollar-priced goods and travel for UK and European households.\n\nRelated events\n\nUS ISM Services PMI\, typically released a few days after the manufacturing report and covering the much larger services sector\nUS nonfarm payrolls\, the monthly jobs report that often follows within the same week and is watched alongside manufacturing employment trends\nFederal Reserve interest rate decisions\, where policymakers weigh business survey data such as the ISM report alongside inflation and labour market figures\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI released?\nIt is expected at 10:00 am Eastern Time on September 1\, 2026\, which is 3:00 pm in London\, though the date is an estimate pending confirmation on the ISM’s official calendar. \nHow do I read the ISM Manufacturing PMI number?\nA reading above 50 indicates the manufacturing sector is expanding compared with the prior month\, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction; the further from 50\, the stronger the signal. \nDoes the ISM Manufacturing PMI affect interest rates?\nIt can influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy because officials watch the survey’s employment and prices paid components as early signals of labour market and inflation trends\, though it is only one of many inputs into rate decisions. \nWhere can I find the official ISM Manufacturing PMI release?\nThe report is published directly on the Institute for Supply Management’s website\, ismworld.org\, and is also distributed through major financial news services. \nWhen is the next ISM Manufacturing PMI released after this one?\nISM publishes the Manufacturing PMI monthly\, so the following report\, covering September 2026 activity\, is typically released on the first business day of October 2026. \nResults: US ISM Manufacturing PMI\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline Manufacturing PMI\n55.2%\n54.6%\n55.6% (July 2026)\n\n\nNew Orders Index\nNot separately polled\n53.7%\n56.7% (July 2026)\n\n\nEmployment Index\n53.0%\n51.2%\n52.8% (July 2026)\n\n\nPrices Paid Index\n70.5%\n71.1%\n71.1% (July 2026)\n\n\n\nThe Institute for Supply Management reported that the headline Manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.6% in August 2026\, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion but falling short of the 55.2% consensus compiled by economists and coming in below July’s 55.6% print\, which had been the strongest reading since May 2022. Since any figure above 50% signals expansion\, the sector kept growing\, but at a slower pace than forecasters expected. \nThe slowdown was led by new orders\, which fell to 53.7% from 56.7% in July\, a three-point drop that ISM said reflected less optimistic demand sentiment among purchasing executives. The employment index also softened to 51.2%\, missing the 53.0% consensus and down from 52.8% in July\, pointing to more cautious hiring intentions at factories. Prices paid held at 71.1%\, unchanged from July but above the 70.5% consensus\, showing that input cost pressures did not ease even as growth momentum slowed. \nThis outcome landed closest to the “below consensus” scenario flagged in the preview: a softer than expected headline reading alongside firm price pressures\, a combination that complicates the picture for anyone hoping for a clean signal on where the Federal Reserve’s next move might land. Full background on this series is available at US ISM Manufacturing PMI. \nMarket Reaction\nUS stocks fell sharply on September 1\, 2026\, with the S&P 500 closing at 7\,631.47 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 419 points to 52\,766.88\, according to market data reported the same day. The Nasdaq dropped 271 points\, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped\, as investors reacted to the softer ISM reading alongside a broader rise in Treasury yields\, with the 10-year note trading close to 5%. \nCurrency markets were more muted: the dollar slipped modestly against major peers even as Treasury yields climbed\, according to market commentary from ATFX\, while gold eased toward two-week lows. Traders attributed part of the equity sell-off to the weaker manufacturing data combined with other pressures that day\, including rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices\, so the ISM report was one contributor to the move rather than the sole cause. Rate futures markets will now weigh whether the softer employment and new orders components strengthen the case for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts at upcoming meetings. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe softer new orders and employment components suggest US factory hiring may be cooling slightly\, which is worth watching for anyone working in or supplying manufacturing supply chains in the US\, UK\, Europe or Asia. With price pressures still elevated\, the report does not obviously strengthen the case for near-term interest rate cuts\, so savers holding cash in higher-yielding accounts are unlikely to see an immediate shift\, while mortgage borrowers should watch upcoming Treasury yield moves rather than this release alone.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260901T050000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260901T060000
DTSTAMP:20260902T125006Z
CREATED:20260902T114121Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T125006Z
UID:2509-1788238800-1788242400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Eurozone Unemployment September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Eurozone Unemployment: Held at 6.4%\, EU rate 6.1% (Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026 at 11:00 am CEST (5:00 am ET\, 10:00 am London)). \n\nActual\nHeld at 6.4%\, EU rate 6.1%\n\nFull schedule and background: Eurozone Unemployment. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nEurostat reported on September 1\, 2026 that the euro area unemployment rate held at 6.4% in July 2026\, a touch above the 6.3% consensus forecast and unchanged from a revised June reading. \nEurostat\, the statistical office of the European Union\, releases the eurozone unemployment rate for July 2026 on Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026\, at 5:00am ET (11:00am CEST local time in Luxembourg\, 10:00am London time). The report measures the share of the eurozone labour force that was without work but actively seeking it during the reference month\, and it is watched closely by the European Central Bank as one gauge of slack in the labour market. Full schedule and background: Eurozone Unemployment. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the July 2026 eurozone unemployment rate has not yet been published by the major polling desks. Economists typically publish their forecasts in the days immediately before the release\, once national labour data from Germany\, France\, Italy and Spain have come in. The eurozone rate has held in a narrow band close to record lows in recent years\, according to Eurostat’s release calendar\, though the exact prior reading for June 2026 will be confirmed in the official release alongside the July figure. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (June 2026)\nConsensus (July 2026)\n\n\n\n\nUnemployment rate\nTo be confirmed in release\nNot yet published\n\n\nYouth unemployment\nTo be confirmed in release\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nPlain-English meaning\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nEuro could soften slightly\, bond yields may dip on rate-cut hopes\nMore people out of work than expected\, a sign the labour market is cooling\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\nThe labour market is behaving broadly as economists expected\n\n\nBelow consensus\nEuro could firm\, ECB seen less likely to cut rates soon\nFewer people unemployed than expected\, a tighter jobs market\n\n\n\nWhy it matters this week\nThe eurozone labour market has been unusually resilient through recent rate-hiking and rate-cutting cycles\, with unemployment sitting near multi-decade lows even as growth has slowed in parts of the bloc. The European Central Bank pays close attention to labour market slack because a tight jobs market can keep wage growth\, and therefore underlying inflation\, elevated even when headline price growth is falling. A weaker-than-expected reading would add to the case for further ECB rate cuts\, while a stronger reading would support the argument for holding rates steady for longer. \nInvestors outside the eurozone also watch this release. A softer labour market can weigh on the euro against the dollar and pound\, with knock-on effects for UK and US exporters selling into the eurozone\, and for Asian manufacturers whose goods are priced in a fluctuating euro. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor eurozone savers and borrowers\, a weaker unemployment reading tends to increase the odds of ECB rate cuts\, which can eventually lower mortgage rates but also reduce returns on savings accounts. For UK and US investors holding European stocks or bonds\, a weaker jobs market can be read as a sign of slower growth\, sometimes reducing the value of eurozone assets in the short term. \nA stronger-than-expected labour market can support the euro\, making European holidays and imported goods marginally cheaper for people paid in dollars or pounds\, but it can also delay the interest rate relief that mortgage holders across the eurozone have been hoping for. \nPension funds and investors with exposure to European equities should treat any single labour market print as one data point among many rather than a signal to change long-term plans. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the eurozone unemployment report released?\nEurostat publishes the figures at 5:00am ET\, which is 11:00am CEST in Luxembourg and 10:00am in London. \nWhat would count as a big miss from consensus?\nBecause the eurozone unemployment rate typically moves in tenths of a percentage point\, a move of 0.2 percentage points or more away from expectations would be considered a significant surprise. \nWhen is the next eurozone unemployment report?\nEurostat releases the unemployment rate monthly\, so the next report covering August 2026 is expected roughly a month later\, following the bloc’s regular release calendar. \n \nResults: Eurozone Unemployment\, July 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nEuro area unemployment rate\n6.3%\n6.4%\n6.4% (June 2026\, revised from 6.3%)\n\n\nEU unemployment rate\nNot separately polled\n6.1%\n6.1% (June 2026)\n\n\nYouth unemployment (euro area)\nNot separately polled\n14.9%\n15.0% (June 2026)\n\n\n\nEurostat reported that the euro area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 6.4% in July 2026\, a shade above the 6.3% consensus among economists tracked by Trading Economics. The number of people out of work in the currency bloc was unchanged from June at 11.264 million\, according to the official Eurostat news release. Eurostat also revised the June 2026 reading up from 6.3% to 6.4%\, meaning the labour market showed no month-on-month improvement rather than the marginal cooling first reported a month earlier. \nThe result confirmed the “in line with consensus” scenario flagged in this page’s earlier preview\, though the small upward revision to June pushed the year-on-year comparison slightly higher\, with the rate now 0.1 percentage points above the 6.3% recorded in July 2025. Youth unemployment in the euro area eased to 14.9% from a revised 15.0%\, continuing a gradual improvement in job prospects for under-25s even as the headline rate stayed flat. Among the larger member states\, Spain (10%) and France (8.3%) remained well above the euro area average\, while Germany and the Netherlands (both around 4%) stayed among the lowest. \nMarket Reaction\nReaction across eurozone bond and currency markets was muted\, consistent with the low market-moving weight this release typically carries. The euro traded in a narrow range against the dollar and pound on the day\, with traders giving more weight to the flash inflation and GDP data Eurostat had already published in the preceding weeks than to a stable labour market print that matched expectations closely. \nInterest rate markets showed little change in expectations for the European Central Bank’s next policy meeting\, since a jobless rate that is flat and only fractionally above forecast does not\, on its own\, strengthen the case for either an imminent rate cut or a prolonged hold. Traders continue to focus on incoming inflation and wage data for signs of whether the ECB will adjust rates in the months ahead. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook for eurozone borrowers\, savers and investors is unchanged by this release. A labour market that is holding steady near recent lows\, rather than deteriorating sharply or tightening further\, gives the ECB no fresh reason to move rates quickly in either direction\, so mortgage rates\, savings rates and the euro’s trajectory against the dollar and pound are likely to keep taking their cues from inflation and growth data rather than this jobs report.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/eurozone-unemployment-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260901T050000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260901T060000
DTSTAMP:20260902T123343Z
CREATED:20260825T123727Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T123343Z
UID:2159-1788238800-1788242400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Eurozone Flash CPI September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Eurozone Flash CPI: 3.3% YoY\, core 2.4% (August 2026) (Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026 at 11:00 am CEST (5:00 am ET\, 10:00 am London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nActual\n3.3% YoY\, core 2.4% (August 2026)\n\nFull schedule and background: Eurozone Flash CPI. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nEurozone annual inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August 2026\, up from 2.9% in July and in line with the 3.3% consensus\, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate published on September 1\, 2026. \nThe Eurozone Flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026 is due on September 1\, 2026 at 11:00am CEST (5:00am ET\, 10:00am London)\, published by Eurostat\, the statistical office of the European Union. The release gives the first\, preliminary estimate of annual inflation across the 21-country euro area for August 2026. Full background and the release schedule are on the Eurozone Flash CPI hub page. \nWhat is the Eurozone Flash CPI?\nThe Flash CPI is Eurostat’s earliest estimate of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)\, the inflation measure the European Central Bank (ECB) uses to judge whether prices in the euro area are rising too fast\, too slowly\, or in line with its 2% medium-term target. It tracks the average change in prices for a broad basket of goods and services\, from groceries and rent to petrol and haircuts\, across all 21 member states that share the euro. \nBecause the flash figure arrives at the end of the reference month\, before national statistics offices have finished collecting every price\, it is based on partial data and modelling rather than a complete count. Eurostat firms this figure up with a full release roughly two to three weeks later\, so the flash number can be revised\, though typically by only a tenth of a percentage point or less. \nMarkets watch it closely because it is usually the first hard evidence of where inflation stands going into the next ECB Governing Council meeting. A surprise in either direction can move the euro\, eurozone government bond yields and expectations for the ECB’s next interest rate decision within minutes of release. \nWhen is the August Flash CPI released?\nEurostat publishes the August 2026 flash estimate on Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026\, at 11:00am Central European Summer Time. That is 5:00am Eastern Time and 10:00am London time. The figure appears on the Eurostat Euro Indicators release calendar and is issued as a short statistical press release\, with the full HICP breakdown following roughly two weeks later. This date is confirmed on Eurostat’s own calendar rather than estimated. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 flash figure had not yet been widely published by major polling desks; unlike the US Consumer Price Index\, the eurozone flash estimate does not always attract a formal Reuters or Bloomberg economist poll several days ahead of release. The most useful comparison is therefore the prior print. Eurostat’s final data confirmed euro area annual inflation at 2.9% in July 2026\, up from 2.8% in June 2026\, according to Eurostat’s July flash release. Core inflation\, which strips out volatile energy and unprocessed food prices\, rose to 2.5% in July from 2.4% in June\, according to Trading Economics‘ summary of the confirmed Eurostat data. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline HICP\, annual\n2.9%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCore HICP (ex energy\, food\, alcohol\, tobacco)\, annual\n2.5%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus / prior trend\nEuro could strengthen\, eurozone bond yields could rise\, as traders price a higher chance the ECB tightens further\nPrices are rising faster than expected\, adding pressure on the ECB to raise rates again to bring inflation back towards 2%\n\n\nIn line with prior trend\nLimited market reaction\, existing expectations for ECB policy largely confirmed\nInflation is behaving broadly as expected\, so the ECB is unlikely to change its near-term plans because of this release alone\n\n\nBelow consensus / prior trend\nEuro could soften\, government bond yields could ease\, as traders trim expectations for further hikes\nPrice pressure is cooling faster than feared\, giving the ECB more room to pause or hold rates steady\n\n\n\nThese are possible reactions based on typical market behaviour around inflation surprises\, not predictions of what will happen on September 1. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points (a basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point) in June 2026\, its first increase since 2023\, after a renewed energy price shock tied to conflict involving Iran pushed inflation higher. It then held the deposit rate at 2.25% on July 23\, 2026\, according to the European Central Bank’s own policy statement\, while signalling it was ready to move again if energy costs stayed elevated. \nTraders have since built in a high probability of a further quarter-point rise in September 2026: Trading Economics reported markets pricing around a 70% chance of a September hike after the latest oil price surge\, even after ECB officials had struck a more cautious tone at the July Sintra forum\, as Trading Economics noted. ECB President Christine Lagarde has warned that prolonged high energy prices “the more likely they are to drive up broader inflation through indirect and second-round effects\,” according to the same source. \nAgainst that backdrop\, the August flash CPI is the last major inflation data point the Governing Council will see before its next meeting. A hot reading would reinforce the case for another rate rise; a softer one could revive debate about pausing. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and loans: If the data keeps inflation elevated and the ECB raises rates again in September\, variable-rate mortgages and new borrowing across the eurozone are likely to become more expensive. Fixed-rate mortgage pricing\, which tracks bond yields\, can move even before the ECB actually decides anything.\nSavings: Higher policy rates generally feed through to better savings and fixed-term deposit rates at eurozone banks\, though the pass-through is often slow and incomplete.\nJobs and wages: Persistent above-target inflation squeezes real wages (pay after adjusting for price rises) unless employers grant matching pay increases\, which is one reason the ECB watches wage growth alongside CPI.\nPrices: The energy component has been the biggest driver of the recent pickup in inflation\, so households across the eurozone\, and in trading partners like the UK\, may keep feeling it most at the petrol pump and on energy bills.\nCurrencies and investments: A stronger-than-expected inflation print\, and the rate expectations it feeds\, can lift the euro against the dollar and pound\, affecting the cost of European holidays\, imports and returns on eurozone-listed investments and pension funds for UK and US-based investors.\n\nRelated events\n\nThe next ECB Governing Council interest rate decision\, where policymakers weigh this and other data on their 2% inflation target.\nThe full Eurostat HICP release for August 2026\, due roughly two to three weeks after the flash estimate\, with country-by-country and component detail.\nThe July 2026 Eurozone Flash CPI\, the prior print in this series\, published July 31\, 2026.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Eurozone Flash CPI released?\nEurostat publishes it at 11:00am CEST (5:00am ET\, 10:00am London) on September 1\, 2026. \nHow do I read the flash CPI figure?\nIt is the annual percentage change in the harmonised price basket for the euro area; a higher year-on-year percentage means prices have risen faster over the past 12 months. \nHow does this release affect ECB interest rates?\nThe ECB targets 2% medium-term inflation\, and Governing Council members cite recent CPI trends when deciding whether to raise\, hold or cut its key interest rates\, including the deposit facility rate. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe official statistical release is published on the Eurostat Euro Indicators page. \nWhen is the next Eurozone Flash CPI released?\nThe next flash estimate\, covering September 2026 data\, is typically published on the last working day of the reference month\, around September 30 or October 1\, 2026\, following Eurostat’s usual schedule. \nResults: Eurozone Flash CPI August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline HICP\, annual\n3.3%\n3.3%\n2.9%\n\n\nCore HICP\, annual\n2.5%\n2.4%\n2.5%\n\n\n\nEurostat’s flash estimate put euro area annual inflation at 3.3% in August 2026\, up from 2.9% in July and matching the 3.3% consensus reported by Investing.com’s tracking of economist expectations. It is the highest reading since 2023 and the second consecutive monthly acceleration\, according to Eurostat’s flash release. \nThe jump was driven almost entirely by energy\, where annual inflation surged to 14.3% from 10.3% in July as oil and gas prices climbed amid renewed disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Services inflation actually eased\, to 3.0% from 3.3%\, while food\, alcohol and tobacco inflation held flat at 1.2% and non-energy industrial goods rose to 1.2% from 0.9%. \nCore inflation\, which strips out energy\, food\, alcohol and tobacco\, came in slightly below the 2.5% consensus at 2.4%\, its lowest reading since June\, according to investingLive. This mix of a hot headline but a cooler core reading landed close to the middle scenario described in our preview: broadly matching prior trends on the surface while masking a more nuanced underlying picture\, with energy doing almost all of the work. \nMarket Reaction\nThe headline jump back above 3% reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank will raise rates again at its September meeting\, with the energy-driven spike making a hike easier to justify politically\, according to Bert Colijn\, ING’s chief economist for the Netherlands. The softer core figure\, however\, fed into debate about whether the Governing Council would want to go further into restrictive territory after one more move. \nEurozone government bond yields ticked higher immediately after the release before easing back as traders digested the weaker core print\, while the euro held broadly steady against the dollar and pound. Analysts at Oxford Economics noted the increase was driven by a rebound in fuel prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz\, while underlying price pressures remained contained as services inflation fell. \nAttention now turns to the ECB’s September Governing Council meeting\, where policymakers will weigh this data alongside July minutes showing officials had already anticipated a near-term pickup in headline inflation. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe path for eurozone borrowing costs has become slightly more likely to tighten further in the near term\, given the headline surprise\, though the softer core reading argues against a long run of additional hikes. Households paying variable-rate mortgages or new loans across the euro area should watch the September ECB decision closely\, as another quarter-point rise remains a live possibility. For savers\, any further rate rise would typically support marginally better returns on eurozone bank deposits\, while the energy-led nature of this inflation pickup means fuel and heating bills are the area most likely to be felt directly by consumers in the eurozone\, the UK and beyond.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/eurozone-flash-cpi-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260831T214500
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260831T224500
DTSTAMP:20260902T123748Z
CREATED:20260826T032047Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T123748Z
UID:2253-1788212700-1788216300@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:China Caixin Manufacturing PMI September 2026
DESCRIPTION:China Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 51.5 (August 2026)\, up from 50.9 in July (Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026 at 9:45 am CST (9:45 pm ET\, 2:45 am London)). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nActual\n51.5 (August 2026)\, up from 50.9 in July\n\nFull schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nChina’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August 2026\, up from 50.9 in July and above the 51.0 median forecast in a Reuters poll\, according to data published by S&P Global and Caixin Media on September 1\, 2026. \nThe China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 is due on Tuesday\, September 1\, 2026 at 9:45 am China Standard Time\, which is 9:45 pm ET on September 1 in the United States and 2:45 am in London on September 1. The survey is compiled by S&P Global and published under license for Caixin Media. It covers manufacturing activity in China during August 2026. Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI. \nWhat is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI?\nThe Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is a monthly survey of around 500 purchasing managers at small and medium-sized manufacturing firms across China. Each manager is asked whether output\, new orders\, employment\, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchased goods have risen\, fallen or stayed the same compared with the previous month. The answers are combined into a single index number. \nA reading above 50 signals that manufacturing activity is expanding compared with the previous month. A reading below 50 signals contraction. The distance from 50 indicates the pace of change\, so a jump from 50.9 to 52.0 suggests a meaningfully quicker expansion\, not just a continuation of growth. \nMarkets watch this release closely because China is the world’s largest manufacturing economy and a key supplier of goods to Europe\, the United States and the rest of Asia. Unlike the official government PMI\, which leans towards large\, state-linked firms\, the Caixin survey is weighted towards smaller\, export-oriented\, privately owned businesses. That makes it a useful gauge of how China’s private sector\, rather than state industry\, is faring\, and it often moves markets in Hong Kong\, Australia\, Japan and commodity-exporting economies such as Brazil and South Africa. \nWhen is the August Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?\nThe release is scheduled for September 1\, 2026 at 9:45 am China Standard Time (9:45 pm ET on September 1\, 2:45 am in London on September 1). The data is published on the S&P Global PMI release calendar and distributed to subscribers and financial news wires simultaneously. As with most PMI series\, the exact date has not yet been confirmed by the publisher for this specific month at the time of writing. S&P Global typically releases the manufacturing PMI on the first business day of the month following the survey period\, so September 1 is the expected date based on that established pattern. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 reading has not yet been published. Economist polls for PMI releases are typically compiled by wire services in the days immediately before publication\, so a median forecast is unlikely to appear until closer to September 1\, 2026. \nThe most recent published reading\, for July 2026\, came in at 50.9\, easing from 51.7 in June 2026\, according to reporting on the release. That July figure was also below the median forecast of 51.5 in polling ahead of the release\, and it marked an eighth consecutive month in expansion territory. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (June 2026)\nLatest published (July 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline Manufacturing PMI\n51.7\n50.9\n\n\nNew export orders\nGrowth reported\nReturned to growth\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus / prior\nRead as a sign of resilient factory demand\, potentially supporting Asian equities and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar\nChinese factories are getting more orders than expected\, which could feed through to global supply chains and export prices\n\n\nIn line with prior trend\nLimited market reaction\, seen as confirmation that the recent gradual slowdown from 51.7 to 50.9 is continuing rather than reversing\nGrowth continues but at a similar\, more modest pace\, with no fresh surprise for investors\n\n\nBelow consensus / prior\nCould be read as a warning sign for global demand and may weigh on risk assets tied to China\, including mining and shipping stocks\nChinese manufacturers are seeing fewer new orders\, which can signal softer demand both at home and from overseas buyers\n\n\n\nThese are possible market reactions described by analysts\, not predictions of what will happen on the day. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe Caixin PMI has stayed above the 50 expansion threshold for eight straight months through July 2026\, according to reporting on the release\, even as the headline figure has eased from 51.7 in June to 50.9 in July. New export orders returned to growth in the July reading\, a detail analysts watch closely given ongoing trade tensions and tariff uncertainty between China\, the United States and Europe. \nChinese policymakers use PMI data alongside other indicators when calibrating stimulus measures\, and a run of weaker prints can increase pressure for additional fiscal or monetary support. Investors in Europe and the United States watch the series for early signs of changing demand for industrial inputs\, semiconductors and consumer electronics\, given China’s role in global supply chains. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nMortgages and borrowing costs: a weaker Chinese PMI can push global bond yields lower as investors seek safety\, which sometimes feeds through to mortgage pricing in the UK\, US and eurozone\, though the link is indirect and takes time. \nSavings: most retail savings rates are set by domestic central bank policy rather than Chinese data directly\, but sustained weakness in China can add to the case for rate cuts elsewhere if it slows global growth. \nJobs and wages: workers in export-heavy sectors\, from German car parts suppliers to Australian miners\, are more exposed to Chinese manufacturing demand than most other employees. \nPrices: a stronger reading can support commodity and shipping costs\, which can filter into the price of goods on shelves in the UK\, Europe and the US. \nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Asian equity markets\, mining shares and currencies such as the Australian dollar and Chinese yuan tend to be the most sensitive to this release\, and pension funds with exposure to Asian or commodity funds may see short-term price moves. \nRelated events\n\nChina’s official (NBS) Manufacturing PMI\, typically released a day or two before the Caixin figure\nUS ISM Manufacturing PMI\, usually released on the first business day of the month\nEurozone and UK manufacturing PMI releases from S&P Global\, published around the same time each month\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?\nThe release is scheduled for 9:45 am China Standard Time on September 1\, 2026\, which is 9:45 pm ET on September 1 and 2:45 am in London on September 1. \nHow do I read the Caixin PMI number?\nA figure above 50 means manufacturing activity expanded from the previous month\, while a figure below 50 means it contracted\, with the distance from 50 indicating the pace of change. \nDoes the Caixin PMI affect UK and US interest rates?\nNot directly\, since UK and US rates are set by the Bank of England and Federal Reserve based on domestic conditions\, but persistent weakness in Chinese manufacturing can influence global growth expectations that feed into those decisions. \nWhere is the official Caixin PMI release published?\nThe data is published by S&P Global on its PMI release calendar and distributed to subscribers and financial media at the time of release. \nWhen is the next Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?\nThe following month’s reading\, covering September 2026 activity\, is expected around the first business day of October 2026\, following the usual release pattern. \nResults: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nCaixin Manufacturing PMI (August 2026)\n51.0\n51.5\n50.9 (July 2026)\n\n\n\nThe headline index rose to 51.5 in August 2026\, extending its run above the 50 expansion threshold and beating the 51.0 median forecast from economists polled by Reuters ahead of the release. The reading marked an acceleration from July’s 50.9\, which had itself been a four-month low. Output and new orders both strengthened during the month\, with new export orders recording their fastest rise in around six months\, according to S&P Global’s survey commentary reported by IndexBox. \nThe pickup landed closer to the “above consensus” scenario flagged in the preview\, with firms reporting improved business confidence and steady hiring after gains in June and July. Order backlogs grew at their fastest pace since March 2026 and finished goods inventories rose at their quickest rate since September 2025\, pointing to firms building stock in anticipation of continued demand rather than a one-off surge\, according to RTTNews’ report on the release. \nThe private-sector Caixin gauge diverged from the official NBS manufacturing PMI\, which stayed in contraction at 49.8 for August\, underlining the gap between larger\, state-linked firms and the smaller\, export-oriented companies the Caixin survey samples. \nMarket Reaction\nA stronger-than-expected private-sector PMI is generally read by analysts as a supportive signal for risk sentiment tied to China\, including Asian equities\, industrial commodities and currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan\, given the survey’s tilt towards export-facing manufacturers. Detailed intraday moves in specific indices or currency pairs directly attributable to this release were not available from the sources checked at the time of writing. \nThe divergence between the expanding Caixin reading and the contracting official NBS PMI is likely to keep investors focused on which measure better reflects underlying momentum in China’s economy\, particularly for sectors exposed to the private\, export-led side of manufacturing rather than large state-linked producers. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook is broadly unchanged for most household finances outside China. The pickup in the Caixin PMI is a modestly encouraging signal for global manufacturing demand and supply chains\, but it is unlikely on its own to shift mortgage rates\, savings rates or major currency levels in the UK\, US or eurozone. Investors with exposure to Asian equities\, mining shares or commodity-linked currencies may see it as one data point supporting the case that China’s export sector is holding up better than the contracting official PMI suggests.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/china-caixin-manufacturing-pmi-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260830T213000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260830T223000
DTSTAMP:20260902T123616Z
CREATED:20260826T024323Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T123616Z
UID:2251-1788125400-1788129000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:China Official PMI August 2026
DESCRIPTION:China Official PMI: Manufacturing PMI 49.8 (vs 49.6 consensus\, prior 49.2); Non-Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (vs prior 49.0) (Monday\, August 31\, 2026 at 9:30 am CST (9:30 pm ET\, 2:30 am London)). \n\nActual\nManufacturing PMI 49.8 (vs 49.6 consensus\, prior 49.2); Non-Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (vs prior 49.0)\n\nFull schedule and background: China Official PMI. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nChina’s official Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August 2026\, beating the 49.6 consensus from a Reuters poll and up from July’s 49.2\, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI held steady at 49.0. \nChina’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August 2026 is due for release on Monday\, August 31\, 2026 at 9:30 am China Standard Time\, which is 9:30 pm ET on Sunday\, August 30 in the United States and 2:30 am on August 31 in London. The data is compiled and published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and covers manufacturing and non-manufacturing (services and construction) activity during August 2026. Full schedule and background: China Official PMI. \nWhat is the China Official PMI?\nThe Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey-based gauge of business conditions. Each month\, NBS asks purchasing managers at a large panel of Chinese companies whether output\, new orders\, employment\, supplier delivery times and inventories rose\, fell or stayed the same compared with the previous month. The answers are combined into a single index. A reading above 50 signals expansion versus the prior month\, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. \nNBS publishes two separate headline indices: the Manufacturing PMI\, which tracks factory activity\, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI\, which covers services and construction. A composite output index blends both. Because China is the world’s largest exporter and a major buyer of industrial commodities\, its PMI is watched closely by traders in metals\, energy and currency markets\, as well as by companies that supply or buy from Chinese factories. \nThe survey is one of the earliest hard signals each month on how China’s economy is performing\, arriving before trade\, retail sales or investment data. Central banks\, including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank\, monitor it as an early read on global demand\, given how much of world trade flows through China. \nWhen is the August PMI released?\nNBS is scheduled to release the August 2026 PMI on Monday\, August 31\, 2026 at 9:30 am local time in Beijing\, which corresponds to 9:30 pm ET (Sunday) and 2:30 am London time (Monday). The release is published on the NBS website and typically appears within seconds via wire services such as Reuters and Bloomberg\, given the market sensitivity of the number. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 reading has not yet been published. Economists typically submit forecasts to Reuters and Bloomberg surveys in the days immediately before the release\, so a median estimate should appear closer to August 31\, 2026. \nThe most recent published figures are for July 2026. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June\, missing the median forecast of 50.0 in a Reuters poll of economists\, according to CNBC. The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June\, according to FocusEconomics. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nManufacturing PMI\n49.2\nNot yet published\n\n\nNon-Manufacturing PMI\n49.0\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus (or a return above 50)\nRead as a sign that stimulus measures and export demand are stabilising activity\, which could support the Chinese yuan and Asian equities and ease pressure on commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar\nFactories and service firms report more new orders than the month before\, suggesting the economy is regaining momentum\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLikely to have a muted market reaction\, since the outcome would confirm existing expectations of a soft but not deteriorating economy\nBusiness conditions are roughly unchanged from expectations\, with no fresh surprise for policymakers or investors\n\n\nBelow consensus (further into contraction)\nCould add to expectations that Beijing will need further monetary or fiscal support\, a scenario analysts have flagged after the July slump\, and may weigh on commodity prices and risk sentiment in Asian and European markets\nFewer new orders and weaker output suggest the slowdown seen in July has deepened\n\n\n\nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe July 2026 data marked a sharp reversal\, with both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices falling back below the 50 threshold after several months near or above it. CNBC reported that the manufacturing miss was linked to a “demand slump” and disruption from typhoons affecting production and logistics. The Shanghai Metals Market noted the composite PMI output index fell to 49.3 in July from 50.6 in June\, describing an overall slowdown in business activity across sectors. \nBecause the slide followed months of relative stability\, the August print is being watched to see whether July was a temporary weather-driven dip or the start of a more sustained downturn. A weak reading would likely sharpen calls\, already voiced after the July data\, for additional stimulus from Beijing\, while a rebound would ease concerns about a broader loss of momentum in the world’s second-largest economy. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: Weak Chinese data can lower expectations for global growth and inflation\, which sometimes pulls down government bond yields worldwide\, indirectly affecting mortgage pricing in the UK\, Europe and the US.\nSavings: If the data feeds into expectations of slower global growth\, central banks may lean towards holding or cutting interest rates\, which can mean lower returns on cash savings over time.\nJobs and wages: Companies that export machinery\, commodities or components to China\, from German carmakers to Australian miners\, can see demand shift with these figures\, which over time can affect hiring and wage growth in those sectors.\nPrices: Weaker Chinese factory activity can reduce demand for industrial commodities such as copper and oil\, which sometimes feeds through to lower prices at the pump or for raw materials used in manufactured goods.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Chinese PMI surprises can move Asian and commodity-linked stock markets\, the Australian and New Zealand dollars\, and the offshore yuan\, all of which can affect pension funds and investment portfolios with exposure to Asia or emerging markets.\n\nRelated events\n\nCaixin China Manufacturing PMI\, a separate private-sector survey focused more on smaller\, export-oriented firms\, usually released a day or two after the official figures.\nChina trade data (exports and imports)\, typically published in the second week of the following month.\nUS ISM Manufacturing PMI\, released on the first business day of the month\, often close to the China PMI release date.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the China Official PMI released?\nThe August 2026 release is due at 9:30 am China Standard Time on August 31\, 2026\, which is 9:30 pm ET the previous evening and 2:30 am in London. \nHow should I read the PMI number?\nA reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding compared with the previous month\, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The distance from 50 reflects the strength of the change\, not an absolute growth rate. \nDoes the China PMI affect UK or US interest rates?\nNot directly\, since it is a Chinese domestic data release\, but it feeds into the global growth outlook that the Bank of England\, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank weigh when setting policy\, particularly through its effect on trade\, commodity prices and financial market sentiment. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe data is published on the National Bureau of Statistics of China website\, with the July 2026 release available at stats.gov.cn. \nWhen is the next China Official PMI released?\nNBS typically publishes the PMI on the last calendar day of each month\, so the September 2026 reading is expected around September 30\, 2026. \nResults: China Official PMI\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nManufacturing PMI\n49.6 (Reuters poll)\n49.8\n49.2 (July 2026)\n\n\nNon-Manufacturing PMI\nNot separately polled\n49.0\n49.0 (July 2026)\n\n\n\nChina’s official Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August 2026 from 49.2 in July\, beating the 49.6 median forecast from a Reuters poll of economists and coming in above TradingEconomics’ 49.7 consensus. It marked a second consecutive month below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction\, but the improvement was larger than analysts had pencilled in after July’s sharp slump\, according to CNBC. \nThe National Bureau of Statistics said both the production and new orders sub-indexes moved back into expansion\, at 50.4 and 50.6 respectively\, while new export orders rebounded to 50.1 from 49.6 in July. The Non-Manufacturing PMI\, covering services and construction\, held flat at 49.0\, unchanged from July\, with construction activity slipping to 46.9 while services edged sideways at 49.3\, according to Metal.com’s summary of the NBS release. The composite output index\, which blends both surveys\, rose to 49.5 from 49.3 in July\, according to china.org.cn. \nThe result landed closest to the “in line with\, or slightly above\, consensus” scenario flagged in the preview: factory activity stayed in contraction but the pace of deterioration eased\, suggesting July’s slump\, partly blamed on typhoon disruption\, was not the start of a deeper downturn. \nMarket Reaction\nThe reaction across Asian markets was muted rather than sharp. FXStreet reported that the stronger-than-expected manufacturing figure had “little to no impact” on the China-proxy Australian dollar at the time of release\, since the number remained below the 50 expansion line. Mainland Chinese equities were mixed on the day\, with the STAR Composite Index\, which tracks Shanghai’s sci-tech board\, closing 1.90% higher\, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped slightly\, according to a market wrap from Cross Pacific Watchers. \nCommodity markets showed little immediate follow-through\, with copper and iron ore prices broadly steady as traders weighed the improvement in the headline PMI against the fact that both official indices remained in contraction territory. Economists cited in coverage of the release continued to flag the case for further policy support from Beijing\, including expanded interest subsidy programmes and a policy-backed financing facility for local governments\, as the underlying recovery in domestic demand remains fragile. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe August data is a modest positive surprise rather than a turning point\, so the broader picture for savers and investors is largely unchanged from the preview. A manufacturing sector still in contraction\, even if less deeply than in July\, keeps alive the case for further Chinese stimulus\, which could continue to weigh on commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars and keep industrial metals prices contained in the near term. \nFor UK\, European and US households\, the direct effect remains small: mortgage and savings rates are driven mainly by domestic central bank policy\, not Chinese PMI prints. Investors and pension savers with exposure to Asian equities or commodity producers are the group most likely to feel any knock-on effect\, and only if the improvement proves durable in September’s data.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/china-official-pmi-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260828T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260828T110000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104634Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104634Z
UID:1328-1787911200-1787914800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Friday\, August 28\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). \n\nConsensus\n46.0\nActual\nPending\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US University of Michigan Consumer SentimentNext US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment →\nThe University of Michigan will publish the final reading of the Surveys of Consumers for August 2026 on Friday\, August 28\, 2026\, at 10:00 AM ET. The August final reading represents the definitive monthly consumer confidence measure for the period and will revise the preliminary estimate released approximately two weeks earlier\, on August 14. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nFriday\, August 28\, 2026 (Final)\n\n\nRelease Time\n10:00 AM ET\n\n\nPublished By\nUniversity of Michigan\n\n\nReference Month\nAugust 2026 (Final)\n\n\nPrior Reading (May 2026 Final)\n44.8 (record low)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat Is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey?\nThe University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers is a monthly survey of approximately 600 US adults that has tracked consumer attitudes since 1946. Published by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan\, the survey measures how Americans feel about their personal financial situations\, buying conditions for major items\, and expectations for the broader economy over the next one and five years. The index is benchmarked to 1966 as 100\, with readings above 80 historically associated with a confident consumer environment and readings below 60 indicating significant pessimism. \nThe survey produces a headline Index of Consumer Sentiment\, as well as sub-indices for current economic conditions and consumer expectations. It also reports one-year and five-to-ten year ahead inflation expectations\, which the Federal Reserve (the Fed) monitors carefully as a gauge of whether price expectations are becoming entrenched. The University of Michigan releases a preliminary estimate mid-month and a final reading on the last Friday of the month\, with the August 28 release representing the final figure for the August 2026 survey period. \nConsumer Sentiment Release: August 28\, 2026\nThe August 28 final reading will provide a definitive picture of consumer confidence for August 2026. The most recent confirmed data point is May 2026 at 44.8\, which represented a record low in the survey’s history. The June and July 2026 final readings (released June 27 and July 31 respectively) will have established the recent trend prior to this August release. By the time August 28 arrives\, the preliminary August reading (released around August 14) will give markets an early indication of whether the record-low sentiment environment has begun to stabilise or deteriorate further. No formal consensus estimate for August 2026 is available at time of writing. \nThe August 28 release arrives on the second day of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026\, which runs from August 27 to 29. This timing creates an unusual coincidence: Federal Reserve Chair and senior central bankers will be actively discussing the economic outlook in Wyoming while the University of Michigan publishes its latest consumer confidence reading in Ann Arbor. A reading that diverges sharply from the July data could influence the tone and content of discussions at Jackson Hole\, even though the data arrives after the symposium has begun. \nWhy This Release Matters\nConsumer sentiment has been one of the most prominent economic weak spots of 2026. The record low of 44.8 in May 2026 reflects the combination of tariff-driven goods price inflation\, elevated energy costs\, geopolitical uncertainty\, and a broader loss of economic confidence that has affected households across the income spectrum. For policymakers\, the critical distinction is between sentiment that is weak because of temporary price shocks (which may self-correct) and sentiment that reflects genuine expectations of prolonged economic deterioration (which is more concerning from a self-fulfilling prophecy perspective). \nThe August 28 data will be read against a backdrop shaped by the summer earnings season. If major retailers (including Walmart\, which reports on August 20) have signalled continued robust consumer spending despite low confidence\, it could suggest that the confidence decline is not translating directly into reduced activity. However\, if spending data and earnings have also been disappointing\, the confluence of low confidence and weak spending would present a more worrying picture for the economic outlook heading into Q4 2026. \nFor the Fed\, consumer inflation expectations embedded in the sentiment survey remain a key signal. If one-year ahead inflation expectations in August remain above 5%\, it will suggest that consumers anticipate continued tariff-driven price increases\, complicating the Fed’s ability to justify rate cuts without appearing to accommodate elevated price expectations. A fall in inflation expectations alongside a potential sentiment recovery would create more room for monetary policy easing. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nSentiment above 50 (recovery into positive territory): A return above 50 would break the below-50 run of spring and early summer 2026 and signal that consumer pessimism may be bottoming. This would be interpreted positively by consumer-facing equities and would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates as a confidence-boosting measure.\nSentiment between 44 and 50 (stabilisation at depressed levels): A broadly unchanged reading\, while still historically very low\, would confirm that confidence has found a floor at current levels. Markets have likely priced in weak confidence\, so stability would be treated as neutral to mildly positive.\nSentiment below 44 (new record low): A further decline would intensify recession concern and increase pressure on the Fed to signal easing. Consumer discretionary equities would face additional selling pressure\, defensive sectors would outperform\, and bond markets would likely rally on increased safe-haven demand.\n\nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nIndex (Final)\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nJune 2025\n60.7\n–\n\n\nJuly 2025\n61.7\n–\n\n\nNovember 2025\n51.0\nDeclining trend\n\n\nDecember 2025\n52.9\nSlight recovery\n\n\nApril 2026\n49.8\nBelow 50 threshold\n\n\nMay 2026\n44.8\nRecord low\n\n\n\nSource: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Final monthly readings. Index benchmarked to 1966=100. \nMarket Positioning\nThe August 28 release coincides with the Jackson Hole symposium\, creating heightened market sensitivity to the consumer confidence reading. Fixed income markets will be particularly attentive to the inflation expectations components: any deterioration in expectations at the same time as Fed Chair signals are being parsed from Wyoming would create a complex cross-asset reaction. Options markets may have elevated implied volatility around August 28 due to the Jackson Hole coincidence\, amplifying price moves in either direction. The consumer discretionary sector and large retailers will be most directly sensitive to the headline sentiment figure. \nRelated Events\n\nUS University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment July 2026 – The July 31 final reading establishes the prior monthly trend before this August release.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – Running August 27-29\, the symposium coincides directly with this release\, creating unusual policy and data confluence.\nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026 – Released August 26\, two days before this sentiment reading\, providing the spending and income counterpart to the survey-based confidence data.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index?\nThe Index of Consumer Sentiment is the headline output from the University of Michigan’s monthly Surveys of Consumers. The index is calculated from five questions covering personal finances (current and expected)\, business conditions (short and long-term)\, and buying conditions for large household durables. It is benchmarked to 1966=100\, with readings above 80 indicating confidence and readings below 60 reflecting notable pessimism. At 44.8 in May 2026\, the index was at a record low\, surpassing the previous lows from 2008-2009 and 2022. \nWhen is the final August 2026 consumer sentiment reading released?\nThe University of Michigan will release the final August 2026 Surveys of Consumers reading on Friday\, August 28\, 2026\, at 10:00 AM ET. The preliminary reading for August 2026 will be published approximately two weeks earlier\, around August 14. The August 28 final reading supersedes the preliminary and is the figure used in official economic analyses. \nHow does consumer sentiment affect Federal Reserve policy?\nThe Fed does not respond mechanically to consumer sentiment surveys\, but the data informs its assessment of household sector health and inflation expectations. Particularly important are the one-year and five-to-ten year ahead inflation expectations sub-components: if consumers expect inflation to remain persistently elevated\, wage demands and pricing decisions may reinforce that expectation\, making it harder for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation target. A deterioration in confidence readings alongside elevated inflation expectations would present a difficult trade-off between supporting growth and controlling price pressures.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260828T080000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260828T090000
DTSTAMP:20260826T024137Z
CREATED:20260826T024137Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260826T024137Z
UID:2249-1787904000-1787907600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Germany CPI Flash August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Germany CPI Flash: Friday\, August 28\, 2026 at 2:00 pm CEST (8:00 am ET\, 1:00 pm London). Covers July 2026 data. \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n2.8% year-on-year (July 2026\, flash and confirmed)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Germany CPI Flash. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nThe Germany CPI Flash is a preliminary estimate of consumer price inflation\, released by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis). The August 28\, 2026 release covers July 2026 data and is expected at 8:00 am ET (2:00 pm CEST local time\, 1:00 pm in London). Full schedule and background: Germany CPI Flash hub. \nWhat is the Germany CPI Flash?\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the average change over time in the prices paid by German households for a fixed basket of goods and services\, from groceries and rent to fuel and holidays. The flash estimate is Destatis’s earliest reading\, published roughly two weeks before the confirmed figure\, and is based on price data collected from several federal states before the full national dataset is finalised. \nBecause Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone\, its CPI flash is one of the most closely watched inputs into the eurozone-wide Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)\, which the European Central Bank (ECB) uses to guide interest rate decisions. A faster or slower pace of German inflation can shift expectations for the whole currency bloc\, affecting bond yields\, the euro exchange rate and borrowing costs across the continent. \nMarkets watch both the headline year-on-year rate\, which includes volatile items like energy and food\, and the underlying trend implied by the month-on-month change\, which shows how prices are moving right now rather than compared with a year ago. \nWhen is the July 2026 Germany CPI Flash released?\nDestatis has not yet confirmed the exact release date for this print at the time of writing. Germany’s statistics office typically publishes the flash CPI estimate close to the end of the reference month\, generally in the last week\, so August 28\, 2026 reflects that usual pattern rather than a confirmed calendar slot. The data will appear on the official Destatis release calendar once scheduled\, alongside a short statistical release and\, later\, the fully confirmed report. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast has not yet been published for the July 2026 Germany CPI Flash. Economist forecasts for German inflation are typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg surveys closer to the release date\, once more of the month’s price data (fuel costs\, food prices and rent trends) is available. The most recent comparable reading is the prior month’s flash and confirmed figure\, which Destatis and independent trackers put at 2.8% year-on-year for July 2026\, with a monthly rise of 0.8%\, according to preliminary data cited by ACEMAXX Analytics\, an economics commentary account that tracks Destatis releases. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (July 2026 print)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI\, year-on-year\n2.8%\nNot yet published\n\n\nHeadline CPI\, month-on-month\n0.8%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nEuro could firm and eurozone bond yields could rise\, as traders price a slower pace of ECB rate cuts\nPrices in Germany are rising faster than expected\, which could keep borrowing costs higher for longer across the eurozone\n\n\nIn line with prior trend\nLimited market reaction\, as the print confirms existing expectations for the ECB’s policy path\nInflation is behaving roughly as expected\, so little changes for savers\, borrowers or investors immediately\n\n\nBelow consensus\nEuro could soften and eurozone bond yields could fall\, as markets lean towards further ECB easing\nPrice pressures are cooling faster than thought\, which could eventually feed into lower mortgage and loan rates\n\n\n\nThese are possible market reactions discussed by analysts and traders\, not predictions of how the data will actually come in. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe ECB has spent recent policy meetings weighing whether inflation across the eurozone is settling durably near its 2% target or remains sticky due to services costs\, wages and energy price swings. Germany’s CPI flash\, released ahead of the eurozone-wide HICP flash\, gives an early signal of where that balance stands in the bloc’s biggest economy. A reading materially above or below the prior 2.8% year-on-year pace would feed directly into debate at the next ECB Governing Council meeting about whether borrowing costs should stay on hold\, rise or fall further. \nThe series has hovered close to the ECB’s target range in recent months\, and traders use each new flash print to recalibrate bets on the timing of future rate moves\, which in turn move eurozone government bond yields and the euro’s value against the dollar and pound. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and loans: If German inflation stays elevated\, the ECB is less likely to cut interest rates soon\, which can keep variable mortgage and loan rates across the eurozone higher for longer. A cooler reading raises the chance of cheaper borrowing in future.\nSavings: Higher-than-expected inflation can support higher savings account rates in the eurozone\, since central banks tend to keep policy rates up when prices are rising quickly. A weaker print could see savings rates drift lower over time.\nJobs and wages: Persistent inflation often prompts unions and employers to negotiate higher wage settlements to protect living standards\, though this can also make firms more cautious about hiring if their costs rise.\nPrices: The CPI flash directly reflects what German households are paying for everyday items\, from supermarket shopping to energy bills\, so a rising rate means the cost of living is climbing faster.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Eurozone bond and equity markets\, plus the euro against the dollar and the pound\, can move on this data because it shapes expectations for ECB policy. UK holidaymakers and businesses trading with the eurozone may notice knock-on effects on the euro’s exchange rate\, while pension funds holding eurozone bonds can see valuations shift with rate expectations.\n\nRelated events\n\nThe confirmed Germany CPI report\, published roughly two weeks after this flash estimate\, using the same reference month’s data.\nThe eurozone-wide HICP flash estimate from Eurostat\, which typically follows shortly after Germany’s national release and rolls national figures into a single eurozone reading.\nThe next ECB Governing Council interest rate decision\, where policymakers weigh inflation data including this release when setting the deposit rate.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Germany CPI Flash released?\nThe release is expected at 8:00 am ET\, which is 2:00 pm local time in Germany (CEST) and 1:00 pm in London\, though Destatis has not yet formally confirmed this exact date. \nHow should I read the headline CPI figure?\nThe year-on-year percentage shows how much prices have risen compared with the same month a year earlier\, while the month-on-month figure shows the pace of change over just the last month\, which can be more volatile. \nHow does this data affect ECB interest rates?\nThe ECB tracks eurozone-wide HICP inflation against its 2% target\, and Germany’s CPI flash\, as the largest component of that index\, offers an early signal of whether inflation pressure is building or easing before the ECB’s next policy meeting. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe data is published on the Destatis Release Calendar at destatis.de\, alongside a short accompanying statistical statement explaining the drivers behind the month’s figure. \nWhen is the next Germany CPI release?\nThe confirmed CPI figure for the same reference month typically follows around two weeks after this flash estimate\, with the next month’s flash estimate due roughly a month after that\, again in the last week of the month.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/germany-cpi-flash-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260827T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260827T130000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104636Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104636Z
UID:1303-1787832000-1787835600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: Thursday\, August 27\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will host the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium from Thursday\, August 27 to Saturday\, August 29\, at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole\, Wyoming. The symposium’s theme this year is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy\,” focusing on how rapid developments in digital payments\, central bank digital currencies\, and financial technology are reshaping monetary transmission and regulatory frameworks. Approximately 120 central bankers\, policymakers\, economists\, and academics from more than 70 countries are expected to attend. \n\n\n\nAt a Glance\n\n\n\n\nEvent\nJackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium 2026\n\n\nDates\nAugust 27-29\, 2026\n\n\nLocation\nJackson Lake Lodge\, Jackson Hole\, Wyoming\n\n\nHost\nFederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City\n\n\n2026 Theme\nFinancial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy\n\n\nMarket Impact\nHigh\n\n\n\nWhat is the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium?\nThe Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is an annual three-day conference organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City\, held each August in Jackson Hole\, Wyoming. First convened in 1978\, the symposium has grown into one of the most closely watched gatherings in global finance. Each year the Kansas City Fed selects a focused macroeconomic or policy theme\, commissions research papers from leading economists and academics\, and invites central bank governors\, finance ministers\, and market participants to present and debate findings. \nAttendance is deliberately limited to around 120 participants\, creating an environment where candid policy discussions are possible. Over more than four decades\, more than 150 authors have presented papers on subjects ranging from inflation and labour markets to international trade and financial stability. The symposium is widely regarded as one of the most important annual forums for shaping central bank thinking globally\, and its proceedings are scrutinised by traders\, economists\, and policymakers long after the event concludes. \nThe keynote speech by the Federal Reserve Chair\, traditionally delivered on Friday morning\, is the most market-sensitive moment of the symposium. Though the event covers academic research\, it is the Chair’s prepared remarks and any follow-on question-and-answer session that markets focus on most intently. In recent years the speech has served as a vehicle for major policy signals\, including commitments to aggressive tightening\, transitions toward easing\, and announcements of shifts in the Fed’s policy framework. \nJackson Hole Economic Symposium: 2026 Schedule\nThe 2026 symposium runs from Thursday\, August 27 through Saturday\, August 29 at Jackson Lake Lodge. The event follows the Kansas City Fed’s standard three-day format: Thursday afternoon and evening sessions cover opening remarks and the first research paper presentations; Friday carries the headline keynote address\, usually delivered by the Fed Chair in the morning\, followed by responses from international central bank governors and structured panel discussions; Saturday wraps up with additional papers and a press availability. \nThe 2026 theme\, “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy\,” will likely draw significant participation from central banks actively exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as well as regulators overseeing stablecoin frameworks and tokenised asset markets. Papers are expected to examine how faster payment rails\, programmable money\, and digital asset infrastructure affect monetary transmission\, financial stability\, and the effectiveness of interest rate policy. The Bank for International Settlements\, the European Central Bank\, and several emerging market central banks have all published substantial research in this area over recent years\, suggesting a rich pool of potential contributors. \nThe Kansas City Fed typically does not publish a full agenda or confirmed speaker list until shortly before the event. As of early June 2026\, the speaker roster had not yet been announced publicly. Markets will watch closely for any confirmation that the Fed Chair will deliver the main keynote\, as this is the moment most likely to move asset prices. History suggests the Chair speaks in Jackson Hole in the large majority of years. \nWhy Jackson Hole Matters for Markets\nThe Jackson Hole symposium has a long record of generating sharp market moves. In August 2022\, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a deliberately brief speech warning that restoring price stability would “require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time” and that the process would “bring some pain to households and businesses.” Markets interpreted the remarks as a clear signal the Fed would press ahead with aggressive rate increases regardless of near-term economic softness. The Dow Jones Industrial Average\, the S&P 500\, and the Nasdaq Composite all fell more than 3% on the day. \nIn August 2023\, Powell reinforced the “higher for longer” framework\, noting that inflation remained too high and that the Fed stood ready to raise rates further if warranted. The hawkish tone disappointed investors who had hoped for more guidance on pausing the tightening cycle\, contributing to a broad equity selloff and higher Treasury yields in the days that followed. The 2024 symposium\, themed “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy\,” kept markets relatively calm by comparison\, as Powell’s remarks were broadly in line with expectations. \nThe 2025 symposium delivered the sharpest positive reaction in recent memory. Powell’s August 22\, 2025 speech acknowledged that labour market risks were rising and signalled that policy adjustments might be warranted\, lifting the probability of a September 2025 rate cut from around 75% to nearly 90% in futures markets. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% on the day\, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq each gained close to 2%\, and the 2-year Treasury yield fell 10 basis points to 3.69%. These swings illustrate that a single Jackson Hole speech can be as consequential as a formal FOMC meeting outcome. \nWhat to Watch For in 2026\nThe 2026 theme of financial innovation and payments policy is significant beyond the usual monetary policy commentary. Central banks worldwide are actively considering how to respond to the growth of digital asset markets\, stablecoin adoption\, and faster payment infrastructure. Symposium papers are likely to address the implications of these changes for monetary sovereignty\, financial inclusion\, and systemic risk. Any signals from policymakers on the regulatory direction for digital assets or CBDCs could move crypto markets and fintech sector valuations\, in addition to the customary reactions in bonds and equities. \nBeyond the academic agenda\, markets will focus on any macroeconomic commentary from the Fed Chair. By late August 2026\, the FOMC will have met in June and July\, providing the Chair with substantial data on how the economy is tracking relative to the Fed’s projections. The US CPI Report for August 2026\, released on August 12\, will be a key input\, giving the Chair the most recent inflation reading before taking the podium. If the economic backdrop has shifted materially from the Fed’s June projections\, markets will listen carefully for any hint of a policy recalibration at the next FOMC meeting. \nInternational central bank representatives are also worth monitoring. The ECB President\, the Bank of England Governor\, and the Bank of Japan Governor typically attend. Any divergent signals between the Fed and other major central banks on the pace of policy normalisation\, or on the regulatory treatment of digital finance\, can generate significant moves in currency markets and in cross-border capital flows. Given the track record of Jackson Hole speeches producing outsized reactions\, many traders reduce net exposure ahead of the Friday morning keynote and reassess positions once Powell’s remarks are published. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The next scheduled FOMC meeting after Jackson Hole\, on September 16\, 2026\, where any policy signals from the symposium may translate into a rate decision.\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – Released on August 12\, this inflation reading will be a critical input for Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks on price stability.\nECB Rate Decision September 2026 – The ECB’s September 10\, 2026 meeting follows Jackson Hole and may reflect any transatlantic policy signals from the symposium.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWho organises the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium?\nThe symposium is organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City\, one of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks in the United States. It has been held annually since 1978\, almost always at Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole\, Wyoming. \nWhen does the Fed Chair typically speak at Jackson Hole 2026?\nThe Fed Chair’s keynote address is customarily delivered on Friday morning\, the second day of the three-day symposium. At the 2026 event that falls on Friday\, August 28. The Kansas City Fed does not publicly confirm the Chair’s participation until shortly before the event\, though the Chair has spoken at nearly every recent symposium. \nWhy do financial markets react so sharply to Jackson Hole speeches?\nThe symposium falls between scheduled FOMC meetings\, making the Fed Chair’s remarks one of the few opportunities for explicit policy guidance outside of formal press conferences. Because the speech is typically more candid in tone than meeting statements\, it can shift interest rate expectations significantly. The August 2022 speech sent the S&P 500 down more than 3% intraday\, while the 2025 speech generated a 2% rally in equities and a sharp fall in Treasury yields.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260827T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260827T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T102421Z
CREATED:20260825T102421Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T102421Z
UID:1464-1787819400-1787823000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Initial Jobless Claims: August 27\, 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday\, August 27\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nNext US Initial Jobless Claims →\nThe US Department of Labor publishes its weekly Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report on Thursday\, August 27\, 2026\, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). The report covers initial jobless claims for the week ending August 22\, 2026\, one of the most closely watched weekly gauges of the American labour market. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nInitial jobless claims count the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given week. Because the data arrives every seven days\, with almost no lag\, economists and Federal Reserve officials treat it as an early warning signal for shifts in hiring and firing long before monthly jobs reports confirm a trend. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the week ending August 22\, 2026 has not yet been published. Forecasts for weekly claims are typically released only a day or two before the report\, once analysts have seen the latest layoff announcements and seasonal adjustment factors. \nThe most recent published reading\, for the week ending August 15\, 2026\, showed initial claims at 206\,000\, a decrease of 6\,000 from the prior week’s revised level of 212\,000\, according to the Department of Labor. The four-week moving average\, which smooths out weekly noise\, stood at 204\,000. Continuing claims\, which count people still receiving benefits after their first week\, rose by 24\,000 to 1\,801\,000 in the most recent week reported\, according to Trading Economics\, a level still below this year’s average. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior\nConsensus\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n206\,000 (week ending Aug 15\, 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\n4-week average\n204\,000\nn/a\n\n\nContinuing claims\n1\,801\,000\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nPlain-English meaning\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus (once published)\nBond yields could fall; some investors read it as a step toward interest rate cuts\nMore people filed for benefits than expected\, suggesting the labour market is cooling faster than thought\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction; existing Federal Reserve rate expectations largely unchanged\nClaims came in roughly as forecast\, confirming the current\, gradual trend rather than a sudden shift\n\n\nBelow consensus\nYields could rise; markets may push back the timing of expected rate cuts\nFewer people filed for benefits than expected\, a sign that hiring and job security remain firm\n\n\n\nWhy it matters this week\nWeekly claims have held in a fairly narrow\, low range through the summer of 2026\, with the level for the week ending August 15 still well below the readings that historically signal a recession. Federal Reserve officials have pointed to this resilience as one reason they can weigh interest rate decisions carefully rather than reacting to a single data point. A run of higher claims would add to evidence that the labour market is loosening\, a factor the Fed weighs alongside inflation when setting interest rates. \nBecause the US economy remains the largest single driver of global financial conditions\, a marked change in the trend of American jobless claims also feeds into currency and bond markets in the UK\, the eurozone and Asia. A weaker US labour market typically pulls US Treasury yields down\, which can drag global borrowing costs with them and shift the value of the dollar against the pound and the euro. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor anyone with a mortgage\, the path of US jobless claims matters because it feeds into expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions\, and those decisions influence borrowing costs well beyond America. If claims rise steadily and markets expect rate cuts\, mortgage and loan rates can drift lower over time\, though the effect is usually gradual rather than immediate. \nSavers with cash in interest-bearing accounts should watch the same trend in reverse: falling US rates over time tend to filter through to lower returns on savings globally\, as central banks elsewhere often follow the Fed’s direction. For anyone holding shares\, funds or a pension invested in global markets\, a sharp jump in claims can unsettle share prices in the short term\, since investors reassess how healthy company profits and consumer spending are likely to be. \nAnyone earning income in dollars\, or planning to convert pounds or euros into dollars for travel or business\, should also watch this data. A weaker labour market reading can nudge the dollar lower against the pound and euro\, changing the value of money exchanged around that time. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time does the August 27\, 2026 jobless claims report come out?\nThe Department of Labor releases the report at 8:30 am ET\, which is 1:30 pm in London\, on Thursday\, August 27\, 2026. \nWhat counts as a big miss on jobless claims?\nEconomists generally consider a move of 15\,000 to 20\,000 or more away from the recent trend\, or from the four-week moving average\, to be significant\, since weekly claims can be volatile due to seasonal factors and one-off events such as extreme weather. \nWhen is the next jobless claims report after this one?\nThe Department of Labor publishes a new jobless claims report every Thursday\, so the next release follows one week later\, covering the week ending August 29\, 2026. \nWhy do jobless claims matter more some weeks than others?\nClaims attract more attention around Federal Reserve meetings or when other labour market data\, such as the monthly jobs report\, has surprised markets\, since traders look for confirmation or contradiction of the broader trend.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-initial-jobless-claims-august-27-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T130000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104548Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104548Z
UID:1327-1787745600-1787749200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:NVDA Earnings August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next NVDA Quarterly Earnings: Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nRevenue ~$91.0bn (company guidance ±2%); analyst EPS consensus $2.07\nActual\nPending\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nNVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq: NVDA) will report its Q2 FY2027 earnings results on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, after market close. The report will cover the fiscal quarter ending 27 July 2026\, and will reveal whether the AI chip maker has met or exceeded its own guidance of approximately $91.0 billion (USD) in revenue for the quarter. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nEarnings Date\nWednesday\, August 26\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\nAfter market close\n\n\nFiscal Quarter\nQ2 FY2027 (ended July 27\, 2026)\n\n\nAnalyst EPS Consensus\n$2.07\n\n\nCompany Revenue Guidance\n~$91.0bn (±2%)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium-High\n\n\n\nWhat Is NVIDIA’s Q2 FY2027 Earnings Report?\nNVIDIA Corporation designs and manufactures graphics processing units (GPUs) and system-on-chip units for a wide range of markets\, most notably data centre AI infrastructure\, gaming\, professional visualisation\, and automotive applications. Its fiscal year runs from late January to late January\, with Q2 FY2027 covering the period from late April 2026 to late July 2026. NVIDIA has become one of the most consequential earnings reports in global equity markets as the dominant supplier of AI training and inference chips through its Hopper and Blackwell GPU architectures. \nFollowing a period of extraordinary growth\, NVIDIA reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6 billion (USD) on May 20\, 2026\, a figure 20% above the prior quarter and 85% above the same quarter a year earlier. The data centre segment accounted for the vast majority of revenue\, driven by hyperscaler and enterprise investment in AI infrastructure. NVIDIA guided Q2 FY2027 revenue at approximately $91.0 billion\, plus or minus 2%\, representing another quarter of sequential growth if achieved. \nThe August 26 report will reveal whether NVIDIA has sustained its hypergrowth trajectory into the second fiscal quarter of 2027. With AI capital expenditure from major cloud providers (Microsoft Azure\, Google Cloud\, Amazon Web Services\, and Meta) remaining at elevated levels\, the key question is whether demand visibility has extended further into the fiscal year or whether any signs of digestion\, supply constraints\, or competitive pressure are beginning to emerge. \nQ2 FY2027: What to Expect\nNVIDIA’s own guidance of approximately $91.0 billion in Q2 revenue sets a high bar that\, if met\, would represent an 11.5% sequential increase from Q1’s $81.6 billion and continued annual growth above 80% year-over-year. The analyst EPS consensus of $2.07 reflects expectations for sustained high profitability\, supported by NVIDIA’s pricing power in the AI GPU market and its platform-level software revenues through CUDA and AI Enterprise. \nThe key variable heading into August 26 is whether NVIDIA’s Blackwell architecture ramp has proceeded smoothly. The transition from Hopper to Blackwell was the central supply chain story of H1 2026\, and analysts will seek confirmation that Blackwell system yields have improved and shipment velocity is consistent with the demand signals communicated by hyperscalers during their own earnings calls. Any indication of supply-side friction or customer delivery delays would be a negative signal; confirmation that the ramp is on track or accelerating would be a strong positive. \nFor the full FY2027\, analysts have set a consensus revenue estimate of $391.3 billion and an EPS estimate of $9.34. Achieving Q2 guidance and raising Q3 guidance toward or above $100 billion would keep the company on track for the annual consensus estimates and sustain investor confidence in the multi-year AI infrastructure investment cycle. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nRevenue above $93bn (above guidance): A beat above the top of the guidance range ($91.0bn plus 2% = $92.8bn) would be a significant positive surprise. NVIDIA has beaten its own guidance in recent consecutive quarters\, and a further beat would reinforce the pattern that demand exceeds the company’s own initial expectations. Shares are likely to respond with a strong after-hours rally\, and the semiconductor sector broadly would benefit from the read-across.\nRevenue in line (approximately $89bn to $93bn): A reading within the guided range would confirm that NVIDIA’s visibility into demand is accurate. Investor reaction would be influenced primarily by Q3 guidance and management commentary on the longer-term demand outlook. An in-line Q2 with a strong Q3 guide would be well received.\nRevenue below guidance ($89bn or less): A miss below the guided range would be unusual for NVIDIA and would raise immediate questions about whether AI capital expenditure is softening\, supply chain issues have emerged\, or competitive pressure from AMD\, Intel\, or custom silicon from hyperscalers is accelerating. Shares could fall sharply after hours\, and the broader technology sector would face risk-off pressure.\n\nQ3 FY2027 guidance will be the most market-sensitive element of the release. If NVIDIA guides Q3 revenue above $100 billion for the first time\, it would be a significant milestone that would likely dominate market commentary. The gross margin trajectory\, which reflects both product mix (Blackwell versus Hopper) and supply chain cost normalisation\, will also be closely monitored: sustained gross margins above 70% are expected\, and any compression below that level would raise concern about the economics of the Blackwell transition. \nHistorical Results\n\n\n\nQuarter\nRevenue\nYoY Growth\nEPS (Adjusted)\n\n\n\n\nQ1 FY2027 (Apr 2026)\n$81.6bn\n+85%\n–\n\n\nQ2 FY2027 (Aug 2026)\nGuided ~$91.0bn\nTBC\nConsensus $2.07\n\n\n\nSource: NVIDIA Corporation investor relations. Q1 FY2027 results reported May 20\, 2026. FY2027 full-year analyst consensus: revenue $391.3bn\, EPS $9.34 (per S&P Global consensus data). \nMarket Positioning\nNVIDIA earnings have become one of the defining single-stock events of each quarter for global equity markets. The company’s share price commands influence over technology sector indices and AI-related exchange-traded funds. The August 26 after-hours announcement arrives during the week of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 (August 27-29)\, meaning the market will simultaneously be processing NVIDIA’s results and anticipating potential monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole\, creating an unusually significant intersection of corporate and macro catalysts in a single week. \nOptions market implied volatility for NVIDIA typically rises significantly in the two weeks before earnings as traders position for either a rally or a sell-off. Historically\, NVIDIA has moved by an average of 7% to 12% in the session following earnings\, in either direction. The magnitude of any move on August 27 (the day after the release) will reflect both the magnitude of any beat or miss relative to guidance and the forward guidance provided for Q3. \nRelated Events\n\nUS Employment Situation August 2026 – Released August 7\, the jobs report will set the economic backdrop heading into the August earnings season.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – Opening August 27\, one day after NVIDIA’s results\, the Fed symposium will intersect with NVIDIA’s market impact for an unusually eventful trading week.\nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026 – Released August 26\, the same day as NVIDIA’s after-market close results\, providing the Fed’s preferred inflation measure alongside the earnings report.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhen does NVIDIA report Q2 FY2027 earnings?\nNVIDIA will release its Q2 FY2027 earnings results after market close on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026. The results and accompanying investor presentation will be published on the NVIDIA investor relations website\, and a conference call for analysts and investors will follow at approximately 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT) on the same day. \nWhat fiscal quarter does the August 2026 report cover?\nThe August 26 report covers NVIDIA’s Q2 FY2027\, which is the fiscal quarter ending 27 July 2026. NVIDIA’s fiscal year ends in late January\, so Q2 FY2027 runs from late April 2026 to late July 2026. \nWhy does NVIDIA’s earnings report move the broader market?\nNVIDIA has become the world’s most valuable semiconductor company and a central node in the global AI infrastructure build-out. Its revenue reflects the capital spending decisions of the largest technology companies in the world\, including Microsoft\, Alphabet\, Amazon\, Meta\, and major sovereign AI projects. When NVIDIA beats expectations\, it signals that AI capital expenditure is accelerating\, which is broadly positive for technology sector earnings\, cloud services companies\, data centre operators\, and energy firms supplying power to AI facilities. A miss would signal the opposite: a slowdown in AI investment with broad sector implications.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/nvda-earnings-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104630Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104630Z
UID:1299-1787733000-1787736600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Gross Domestic Product August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Gross Domestic Product: Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers Q2 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Gross Domestic Product. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Gross Domestic ProductNext US Gross Domestic Product →\nThe US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the second estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026 on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This revised estimate will incorporate more complete source data than the advance estimate released on July 30\, and is expected to show whether the initial Q2 2026 reading holds up or requires significant adjustment. \n\n  At a Glance \n\nRelease date: Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. ET\nPublishing body: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)\nCoverage: Q2 2026 (April\, May\, June 2026) — second estimate\nPrevious estimate: Q2 2026 advance estimate (July 30\, 2026)\nMost recent prior quarter: Q1 2026 at 1.6% (second estimate)\nMarket impact: High\n\n\nWhat is GDP and Why Does It Matter?\nGross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic output\, capturing the total value of all goods and services produced within the United States during a given quarter. The BEA publishes GDP in three sequential estimates: the advance (approximately 30 days after the quarter ends)\, the second (60 days after)\, and the third (90 days after). Each successive estimate incorporates more complete source data and is typically closer to the final figure. \nUS GDP is expressed as a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR)\, meaning the quarterly growth rate is extrapolated to represent a full year’s pace. A reading of 2.0% means that if the economy maintained that quarter’s pace for a full year\, output would grow by 2.0%. This convention differs from most other countries\, which report non-annualised quarter-on-quarter growth rates. \nFor financial markets\, GDP data informs Federal Reserve policy\, corporate earnings projections\, and the risk appetite of investors. Strong growth supports the case for holding or raising rates; weak growth increases pressure on the Fed to cut. \nQ2 2026 GDP Second Estimate: August 26\, 2026\nThe August 26 release will revise the Q2 2026 advance estimate that was published on July 30. The second estimate incorporates more complete data on inventories\, business investment\, trade\, and government spending\, which often leads to revisions relative to the advance figure. In Q4 2025\, for example\, the advance estimate of 1.4% was revised to 0.7% in the second estimate\, highlighting the potential for significant changes between releases. \nBy August 26\, markets will have had four weeks to process the advance estimate and will have formed a view on the likely direction of the revision. The advance estimate was accompanied by the PCE deflator for Q2\, which will also be revised in the August release. Any change to the PCE deflator has implications for inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy ahead of the September 16 FOMC meeting. \nWhy This GDP Release Matters\nThe second estimate lands three weeks before the September 16 FOMC meeting\, giving policymakers time to incorporate the revised growth figure into their assessment. If the advance estimate showed a significant acceleration or deceleration in Q2 growth\, the second estimate will either confirm or partially reverse that signal. \nAugust 26 is also the day of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming\, which historically serves as a key venue for Federal Reserve communication. The Jackson Hole symposium and the GDP revision on the same day create an unusually data-dense environment for markets. The Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole could provide guidance that overrides the market reaction to the GDP revision in terms of policy implications. \nCorporate profits data is included with the second GDP estimate\, providing a BEA-level confirmation of the earnings environment that companies reported during Q2 earnings season. Any meaningful divergence between GDP-level corporate profits and S&P 500 reported earnings would attract attention from economists and analysts. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nUpward revision: A revision above the advance estimate would confirm stronger Q2 growth\, supporting risk assets and corporate earnings\, while potentially adding to inflation concerns if accompanied by a higher PCE deflator. The FOMC’s September decision would become less likely to include a cut.\nBroadly unchanged: A second estimate close to the advance figure would confirm the initial reading and reduce volatility around the GDP release itself\, leaving markets to focus on the Jackson Hole commentary for the key policy signal of the day.\nDownward revision: A downward revision of more than 0.5 percentage point would raise questions about the quality of Q2 growth and could increase expectations of a September rate cut. Bonds would rally; the growth-versus-inflation tension would sharpen. A revision below 1.5% annualised would likely be viewed as material weakness.\n\nThe composition of the revision matters as much as the direction. A revision driven by inventories (volatile and less indicative of underlying demand) carries less weight than one driven by changes to consumer spending or business investment. \nHistorical GDP Growth\n\n\n\nQuarter\nGDP Growth (SAAR)\nEstimate Type\n\n\n\n\nQ1 2026\n1.6%\nSecond estimate\n\n\nQ4 2025\n0.5%\nThird estimate\n\n\nQ3 2025\n4.4%\nUpdated estimate\n\n\nQ2 2025\n3.8%\n—\n\n\nFull year 2025\n2.2%\nAnnual\n\n\n\nSource: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Q4 2025 was depressed by the US government shutdown\, estimated to have subtracted approximately 1.0 percentage point from growth. SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate. \nMarket Positioning\nAugust 26 will be dominated by the dual release of the GDP second estimate and the Jackson Hole symposium. Fed Chair communication from Jackson Hole typically carries more long-term policy significance than a GDP revision\, but a surprise in the GDP figure could complicate or amplify the market’s interpretation of the Fed Chair’s remarks. \nBond markets and the US dollar are particularly sensitive on days that combine data releases with Fed commentary. Traders often see elevated volatility across multiple asset classes. The PCE deflator revision embedded in the GDP release will be particularly scrutinised given that it is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and will feed directly into the September FOMC decision. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – The July 2026 inflation reading on August 12\, providing the most recent inflation context ahead of the August 26 GDP release.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Fed’s next policy decision on September 16\, for which the Q2 GDP second estimate is a key input alongside the September 4 NFP and September 11 CPI.\nUS Employment Situation (NFP) August 2026 – The July 2026 labour market report on August 7\, completing the macro picture alongside the GDP revision.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nHow does the second GDP estimate differ from the advance estimate?\nThe second estimate incorporates more complete source data than the advance estimate\, including updated figures on inventories\, trade in services\, and construction spending. The revision can be modest or substantial: the Q4 2025 advance estimate was 1.4% but the second estimate revised this to 0.7%. The second estimate also includes the first release of corporate profits data alongside GDP\, which is not available in the advance estimate. \nWhen is the Q2 2026 GDP second estimate released?\nThe Q2 2026 GDP second estimate will be released on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. \nWhat is the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and why does it overlap with this GDP release?\nThe Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual gathering of central bank governors\, academics\, and finance ministers hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole\, Wyoming. The Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole is closely watched as a signal of upcoming monetary policy shifts. The overlap of the GDP second estimate on August 26 with the symposium (typically running from late August) creates an unusually data-rich environment. In past years\, Jackson Hole has been used to signal major policy shifts\, including the 2022 “pain” speech that preceded aggressive rate hikes. \nFeatured image: Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-gross-domestic-product-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260826T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104606Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104606Z
UID:1305-1787733000-1787736600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Retail Sales: Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet available\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Retail Sales. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Retail SalesNext US Retail Sales →\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index\, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge\, alongside personal income and consumer spending data. The August 26 release falls on the day before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 opens\, making it one of the most closely watched PCE prints of the year: the Fed Chair will be speaking in Wyoming just 24 hours later with fresh inflation data in hand. As of April 2026\, core PCE stood at 3.3% year-on-year\, well above the Fed’s 2% target. \n\n\n\nAt a Glance\n\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nWednesday\, August 26\, 2026\, 8:30 a.m. ET\n\n\nData Covered\nJuly 2026 personal income and spending\n\n\nPublished By\nBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)\n\n\nPrior Core PCE (YoY)\n3.3% (April 2026)\n\n\nFed Target\n2.0% (headline PCE)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nHigh (amplified by proximity to Jackson Hole)\n\n\n\nWhat is the PCE Price Index?\nThe Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve (the Fed) uses for its official 2% target. Published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis\, PCE tracks price changes across the full range of goods and services consumed by US households\, including expenditures made on their behalf by employers and the government. This broader coverage distinguishes it from the Consumer Price Index (CPI)\, which measures only out-of-pocket consumer spending on a fixed basket of goods. \nPCE also adjusts for substitution effects over time\, reflecting how consumers shift their purchasing behaviour when certain goods become more or less expensive. This makes the PCE index more responsive to actual spending patterns\, and the Fed considers it a more accurate gauge of underlying inflation pressures. Core PCE\, which strips out volatile food and energy prices\, is the figure policymakers monitor most closely when assessing the pace of monetary tightening or easing. \nThe BEA releases the Personal Income and Outlays report monthly\, covering income\, spending\, and the PCE price indices. The August 26\, 2026 report will be the first official data point on July 2026 inflation\, income\, and consumer spending. Consensus forecasts are typically published in the week before the release by major financial data providers and survey organisations. \nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) Release: August 26\, 2026\nThe August 26 release arrives at an unusually significant moment in the economic calendar. It is published just one day before the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium opens on August 27. Fed Chair remarks at Jackson Hole\, traditionally delivered on the Friday morning of the symposium (August 28)\, will incorporate this fresh PCE data. Markets will be watching whether the July PCE print validates or challenges the narrative the Chair is likely to present\, creating a two-day window of elevated sensitivity around both the August 26 data and the August 28 keynote. \nConsensus forecasts for the August 26 release are not yet available; they will be published in the week before the report. The May 2026 and June 2026 PCE readings (released June 25 and July 30 respectively) will form the basis of expectations. On the same day\, the BEA will also publish the US GDP Q2 2026 second estimate\, which updates the advance estimate released on July 30 with revised data. The combination of inflation and growth data in a single morning will require traders to rapidly assess the implications for monetary policy direction. \nThe Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections placed year-end 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7%. Core PCE at 3.3% in April 2026 suggests the Fed is running well above its own forecast\, adding pressure to maintain restrictive policy settings throughout the remainder of the year. \nWhy This PCE Release Matters\nThe August PCE report is the last major inflation data point before the FOMC Rate Decision on September 16\, 2026. Together with the August CPI report (released August 12)\, it will form the core of the inflation evidence available to policymakers when deciding whether to hold\, cut\, or raise rates at September’s meeting. Market expectations for September will shift significantly on the basis of the August 26 PCE print. \nBeyond the immediate policy implications\, the spending component of the report provides critical context on the health of the US consumer. Real personal spending (adjusted for inflation) shows whether households are maintaining their purchasing power or pulling back. Given that core PCE has risen from 2.7% in October 2025 to 3.3% in April 2026\, the question of whether consumers are absorbing or reacting to higher prices has significant implications for Q3 2026 GDP growth. \nThe August release is also watched by global markets because the Jackson Hole symposium the following day draws central bankers from 70 countries. Any surprise in the PCE data will colour the conversations in Wyoming and may be referenced explicitly in speeches from the ECB\, Bank of England\, or Bank of Japan\, whose representatives will also be present. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nCore PCE above 3.5% YoY or above +0.3% MoM – Would indicate further acceleration in underlying inflation. Likely to weigh on equities\, lift Treasury yields\, strengthen the US dollar\, and reduce September rate-cut odds significantly.\nCore PCE steady at 3.2-3.4% YoY – A plateau reading with no further acceleration. Markets may interpret this as “the worst may be over” while acknowledging inflation remains well above target. Limited directional impact on rate expectations.\nCore PCE below 3.0% YoY or below +0.15% MoM – A meaningful downside surprise. Would reignite rate-cut expectations for September and materially shift the tone of the Jackson Hole discussions. Likely to support equities\, lower yields\, and weaken the dollar.\n\nThe personal spending figure will also be scrutinised alongside the inflation data. Strong nominal spending paired with elevated PCE inflation could mean consumers are spending more to buy the same basket of goods\, a sign of declining real purchasing power. Weak nominal spending alongside high PCE would point to demand destruction\, the mechanism through which restrictive policy is supposed to operate. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Month\nData Month\nCore PCE (YoY)\nCore PCE (MoM)\n\n\n\n\nMay 2026\nApril 2026\n3.3%\n+0.24%\n\n\nApril 2026\nMarch 2026\n3.2%\n+0.30%\n\n\nMarch 2026\nFebruary 2026\n3.0%\nn/a\n\n\nJan 2026\nDecember 2025\n3.0%\n+0.40%\n\n\nJan 2026\nNovember 2025\n2.8%\nn/a\n\n\nJan 2026\nOctober 2025\n2.7%\nn/a\n\n\n\nThe trend in core PCE has been sharply higher since the low of approximately 2.6% recorded in mid-2025. The 60-basis-point rise in core PCE over the six months from October 2025 to April 2026 represents one of the more persistent re-acceleration episodes since the post-pandemic surge of 2021-2022. \nMarket Positioning\nAhead of the August 26 release\, positioning will be shaped by the US CPI Report for August 2026 published on August 12 and the PCE print on July 30. If this PCE sequence shows two consecutive months of moderation\, market participants may begin pricing in a September rate cut more aggressively. Conversely\, back-to-back prints above 3.3% core would likely cement a September hold. \nThe proximity to the Jackson Hole symposium creates unusual two-way risk. If PCE comes in soft on August 26 but the Fed Chair signals a hawkish tone in Wyoming on August 28\, the initial bond rally on the PCE data could rapidly reverse. Traders are likely to keep position sizes smaller than usual ahead of the August 26 report\, reserving capital until after the Jackson Hole keynote the following morning provides fuller policy guidance. \nRelated Events\n\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The three-day symposium opens on August 27\, the day after PCE. The Fed Chair’s keynote on August 28 will be directly informed by this PCE reading.\nUS Gross Domestic Product August 2026 – The Q2 2026 GDP second estimate is released on the same day (August 26)\, offering an updated read on growth to set alongside the inflation data.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The next FOMC meeting on September 16 is the primary policy decision that the August PCE data will influence.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the PCE price index measure?\nPCE measures the change in prices paid for goods and services by US consumers and on their behalf by employers and the government. It is the Federal Reserve’s official inflation target\, with a 2% year-on-year rate the stated goal. The core version excludes food and energy prices and is the measure most closely watched by policymakers. \nWhen is the August 2026 PCE report released?\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report\, which includes PCE data\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026. The GDP Q2 second estimate is published at the same time. \nWhy does the August PCE matter more than usual in 2026?\nThe August 26 PCE release falls just one day before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium\, where the Fed Chair will speak publicly about the economic outlook. This creates a unique situation in which the most recent inflation data and a major policy communication event overlap within a 24-hour window\, amplifying the market impact of both.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-personal-income-and-outlays-pce-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T213000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T223000
DTSTAMP:20260825T123446Z
CREATED:20260825T123445Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T123446Z
UID:2157-1787693400-1787697000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Australia CPI August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Australia CPI: Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026 at 11:30 am AEST (9:30 pm ET\, 2:30 am London). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n3.8% annual CPI (June 2026); trimmed mean 3.6%\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Australia CPI. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nAustralia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2026 is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) at 11:30am AEST on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026. For traders in New York that falls at 9:30pm ET on Tuesday\, August 25\, and for London it lands at 2:30am on August 26. The report covers price changes across the Australian economy during July 2026. Full schedule and background: Australia CPI. \nWhat is the Australia CPI?\nThe Consumer Price Index tracks how much prices for a broad basket of goods and services\, housing\, food\, transport\, healthcare and recreation\, have changed for the average Australian household. The ABS calculates it by pricing thousands of items each month and comparing the total cost with the same basket a year earlier\, producing the headline annual inflation rate. \nSince late 2022 the ABS has published a full monthly CPI indicator rather than relying only on the quarterly series\, so the August release is a genuine month-on-month read on inflation rather than an interim estimate. Alongside the headline figure\, the ABS publishes trimmed mean inflation\, a core measure that strips out the most volatile price movements (such as petrol and fresh food) to show the underlying trend. \nMarkets watch this release closely because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) uses it\, together with the quarterly CPI\, to judge whether inflation is moving back towards its 2 to 3 per cent target band. A surprise in either direction can move the Australian dollar\, government bond yields and expectations for the RBA’s cash rate\, with knock-on effects for currency pairs traded in London and New York and for Asian markets that track the AUD as a regional risk barometer. \nWhen is the July CPI released?\nThe ABS releases the monthly CPI indicator for July 2026 at 11:30am AEST on Wednesday\, August 26\, 2026. It is published on the ABS website under Consumer Price Index\, Australia\, alongside a media release summarising the headline and trimmed mean figures. The date is confirmed on the ABS release calendar rather than estimated. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of the time of writing\, a consensus forecast for the July 2026 CPI has not yet been published. Economist surveys for Australian monthly CPI readings are typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg in the days immediately before release\, so a median forecast is likely to emerge closer to August 26\, 2026. \nThe most recent published reading is the June 2026 monthly CPI indicator\, released by the ABS on July 30\, 2026. Annual headline inflation was 3.8 per cent\, down from 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to May 2026\, according to the ABS media release. Trimmed mean inflation\, the RBA’s preferred core gauge\, held at 3.6 per cent for a second consecutive month. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (June 2026)\nConsensus (July 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI\, annual\n3.8%\nNot yet published\n\n\nTrimmed mean\, annual\n3.6%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nAnalysts covering Australian inflation generally treat an upside surprise as reducing the chance of near-term RBA rate cuts\, which tends to support the Australian dollar and push bond yields higher\nPrices are rising faster than expected\, which could delay any easing in mortgage rates and keep the cost of living elevated for longer\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nA reading matching forecasts is usually seen as reinforcing the RBA’s existing policy path\, with limited immediate market reaction\nInflation is behaving broadly as expected\, so there is unlikely to be a sudden change in borrowing costs or the dollar\n\n\nBelow consensus\nA downside surprise is typically read as strengthening the case for the RBA to consider cutting its cash rate sooner\, which can weigh on the Australian dollar\nPrice pressures are easing faster than expected\, which could eventually flow through to lower variable mortgage rates\n\n\n\nThese are possible reactions described by market commentators\, not predictions of what will happen on the day. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nAustralian inflation has been on an uneven path through 2026. The monthly indicator moved from 3.7 per cent in the year to February 2026 up to 4.6 per cent in March\, before easing to 4.2 per cent in April\, 4.0 per cent in May and 3.8 per cent in June\, according to successive ABS media releases. The March spike was driven in large part by transport costs\, with fuel prices rising sharply\, while the subsequent easing reflected falling automotive fuel prices as global oil markets stabilised. \nThe RBA has repeatedly said it wants to see inflation\, and in particular trimmed mean inflation\, converge sustainably within its 2 to 3 per cent target band before it is comfortable easing policy further. With trimmed mean inflation stuck at 3.6 per cent for two consecutive months to June 2026\, the July print will be watched for evidence of whether underlying price pressures are genuinely cooling or merely stabilising above target. \nGlobally\, the release sits alongside other major inflation data such as the US CPI report and eurozone HICP figures that central banks in Washington\, Frankfurt and London are also scrutinising\, making it part of a broader picture of whether global disinflation is continuing or stalling. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: Australian homeowners with variable-rate mortgages are directly affected by RBA decisions that lean heavily on CPI data. A hotter-than-expected July reading could push back the timing of any future rate cut\, while a cooler reading could add to the case for one.\nSavings: Term deposit and savings account rates in Australia tend to track the cash rate outlook\, so a shift in inflation expectations can change what banks offer savers within weeks.\nJobs and wages: Persistently high inflation erodes real wage growth even when nominal pay rises\, so the CPI print feeds into wage negotiations and the Fair Work Commission’s annual minimum wage review.\nPrices: The report itself shows households what has been driving the cost of living\, from housing and electricity to food and transport\, useful context for anyone budgeting for the months ahead.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Movements in the Australian dollar following the release can affect returns for international investors holding Australian assets\, and pension funds with Asia-Pacific exposure watch the data for signs of how RBA policy\, and therefore bond yields\, might move. A weaker or stronger AUD also changes the cost of importing goods and travelling for Australians\, and affects exporters trading with the UK\, Europe and Asia.\n\nRelated events\n\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia’s next cash rate decision\, which will weigh the July CPI alongside labour market data\nThe US CPI report\, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics\, which shapes Federal Reserve policy and global rate expectations\nEurozone HICP inflation data\, watched by the European Central Bank for similar signs of disinflation or persistence\n\nRecent Australia CPI readings\n\n\n\nMonth\nAnnual headline CPI\n\n\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n3.7%\n\n\nMarch 2026\n4.6%\n\n\nApril 2026\n4.2%\n\n\nMay 2026\n4.0%\n\n\nJune 2026\n3.8%\n\n\n\nSource: ABS monthly Consumer Price Index media releases for each respective month. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Australia CPI released?\nThe ABS releases the monthly CPI indicator at 11:30am AEST\, which is 9:30pm ET the evening before in New York and 2:30am in London on the same calendar day as the Australian release. \nHow should I read the headline versus trimmed mean figures?\nThe headline CPI shows overall price changes including volatile items like fuel and fresh food\, while the trimmed mean strips out extreme movements to show the underlying inflation trend that the RBA weighs most heavily. \nHow does this data affect RBA interest rate decisions?\nThe RBA uses monthly and quarterly CPI data as key evidence when setting the cash rate\, so a surprise reading can shift market expectations for whether rates will rise\, hold or fall at upcoming meetings. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe data is published directly on the Australian Bureau of Statistics website under Consumer Price Index\, Australia\, alongside a media release summarising the main findings. \nWhen is the next Australia CPI release?\nThe ABS publishes the monthly CPI indicator roughly a month after each reference period\, so the following release covering August 2026 data is expected around late September 2026\, with the exact date confirmed on the ABS release calendar.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/australia-cpi-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T110000
DTSTAMP:20260825T102317Z
CREATED:20260825T102317Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T102317Z
UID:1463-1787652000-1787655600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US New Home Sales August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US New Home Sales: Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US New Home Sales. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nUS New Home Sales for July 2026 is scheduled for release on Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) by the US Census Bureau\, jointly with the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The report covers new single-family home sales activity during July 2026. Full schedule and background: US New Home Sales dates. \nWhat is New Home Sales?\nNew Home Sales measures the number of newly built single-family houses sold during the month\, expressed as a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A sale is recorded when a buyer signs a contract or makes a deposit\, even before construction is complete\, which makes this one of the more forward-looking gauges of housing demand available to policymakers and investors. \nThe Census Bureau and HUD compile the figures from a sample of building permits and\, in areas without permit systems\, from site visits. Alongside the headline sales rate\, the report publishes the median and average sales price\, the number of homes for sale\, and months’ supply (how long it would take to sell the current inventory at the recent sales pace). \nMarkets watch this release because new construction feeds directly into GDP\, employment in the building trades\, and demand for materials and appliances. It is also highly sensitive to mortgage rates\, since most new-home buyers finance their purchase\, so the series is one of the more direct readings on how borrowing costs are affecting the real economy. \nWhen is the July 2026 New Home Sales report released?\nThe report is due on Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm in London). It is published jointly by the Census Bureau and HUD as part of the Monthly New Residential Sales release\, available on the Census Bureau’s construction statistics pages. New Home Sales for a given month is typically released around the fourth week of the following month\, so a late-August date for July data is in line with the usual schedule. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of the time of writing\, a consensus forecast for July 2026 New Home Sales has not yet been published. Economist surveys for this release\, run by outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg\, are typically published only a few days before the release date\, so a specific number is not yet available. The most recent confirmed data point is the June 2026 report\, published on July 24\, 2026\, which showed new single-family home sales at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 628\,000 units\, up 1.6% from a revised May 2026 estimate of 618\,000\, according to the joint Census Bureau and HUD release. That June reading was 5.6% below the June 2025 rate. Months’ supply of new homes stood at 9.3 months in June\, slightly below May’s 9.4 months. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (June 2026)\nConsensus (July 2026)\n\n\n\n\nNew Home Sales (SAAR)\n628\,000\nNot yet published\n\n\nMonths’ supply\n9.3 months\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nSeen as a sign builders are moving inventory despite higher rates\, which some analysts argue could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly if it coincides with firmer prices\nMore new homes are selling than expected\, which can support construction jobs but may keep prices from falling\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nTypically a limited market reaction\, since the print confirms the recent trend rather than changing it\nThe housing market is behaving broadly as expected\, so mortgage rates and builder plans are unlikely to shift much\n\n\nBelow consensus\nOften read as evidence that high mortgage rates are still weighing on affordability\, which economists surveyed by Reuters have flagged as a persistent drag on housing demand\nFewer buyers are committing to new homes\, which can eventually feed through to weaker construction activity and job losses in the sector\n\n\n\nWhy does this release matter right now?\nNew Home Sales has been volatile through 2026 as buyers weigh elevated mortgage rates against improving builder incentives. Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association have projected 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaging around 6.3% through 2026\, according to reporting cited by industry housing forecasts\, a level that continues to price some buyers out of the market. Builders have responded with rate buydowns and price incentives to keep sales moving\, which is part of why the sales rate has held up even as affordability remains stretched. \nThe Federal Reserve watches new construction data closely because housing is one of the most interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy. A run of weak New Home Sales prints would add to the case\, made by some housing economists\, that the impact of past rate cuts has not yet fully worked through to home construction. A run of strong prints would suggest the sector is stabilising despite still-elevated borrowing costs. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: A weak New Home Sales report can add to expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts\, which over time tends to filter through to mortgage rates in the US and\, indirectly\, to sentiment in the UK and eurozone bond markets that influence fixed-rate mortgage pricing there.\nSavings: Softer housing data that raises the odds of rate cuts can eventually mean lower returns on cash savings accounts and money market funds\, since these tend to track central bank policy.\nJobs and wages: Construction\, real estate and related trades employ millions of workers. A sustained slowdown in new home sales can reduce hiring and overtime in the building trades\, while a pickup can support wage growth in those sectors.\nPrices: Homebuilder price incentives and mortgage buydowns reported alongside sales data give a real-time read on whether housing costs\, a major part of inflation\, are easing or holding firm.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Homebuilder shares and housing-related exchange-traded funds often move on this data. A surprise reading can also move the dollar against the pound and euro if it shifts expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move\, which in turn affects the value of US assets held in pension funds outside America.\n\nRelated events\n\nUS Existing Home Sales\, published monthly by the National Association of Realtors\nUS Housing Starts and Building Permits\, published monthly by the Census Bureau\nFederal Reserve interest rate decisions\, which shape the mortgage rates that drive new home demand\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is US New Home Sales released?\nThe July 2026 report is due at 10:00 am ET\, which is 3:00 pm in London\, on Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026. \nHow should I read the New Home Sales number?\nFocus on the seasonally-adjusted annual rate and its change from the prior month\, and check the margin of error the Census Bureau publishes\, since month-to-month swings in this survey are often within the statistical noise range. \nDoes New Home Sales affect interest rate decisions?\nYes\, the Federal Reserve tracks housing data as part of its broader assessment of how higher borrowing costs are affecting the economy\, though this single release is unlikely to be decisive on its own. \nWhere is the official New Home Sales release published?\nThe Census Bureau publishes the full release\, including data tables\, on its construction statistics website\, jointly with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. \nWhen is the next New Home Sales report after this one?\nThe following report\, covering August 2026 data\, is typically released around the fourth week of September 2026\, following the Census Bureau’s usual monthly schedule.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-new-home-sales-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260825T110000
DTSTAMP:20260825T102037Z
CREATED:20260825T102037Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T102037Z
UID:1657-1787652000-1787655600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Consumer Confidence August 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Consumer Confidence: Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Consumer Confidence. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nUS Consumer Confidence for August 2026 is expected on Tuesday\, August 25\, 2026 at 10:00am ET (3:00pm London)\, published by The Conference Board. The report covers survey responses gathered during August 2026 and measures how optimistic or pessimistic American households feel about the economy\, jobs and their own finances. Full schedule and background: US Consumer Confidence. \nThe Conference Board has not yet confirmed the exact August 2026 release date at the time of writing. The organisation typically publishes the Consumer Confidence Index on the last Tuesday of every month\, and August 25\, 2026 fits that pattern\, but readers should check the Conference Board’s official calendar closer to the date for confirmation. \nWhat is the Consumer Confidence Index?\nThe Consumer Confidence Index is a monthly survey of around 3\,000 US households\, run for The Conference Board\, asking people how they view current business and labour market conditions and how they expect things to look six months ahead. The headline number is an index\, not a percentage\, benchmarked to a value of 100 in 1985\, so a reading of 90 means confidence sits below its long-run 1985 baseline rather than meaning “90 out of 100”. \nThe index splits into two parts that economists watch separately. The Present Situation Index reflects how people rate current business conditions and how easy or hard it is to find a job right now. The Expectations Index reflects what households think will happen to their income\, business conditions and the jobs market over the next six months. The Conference Board has said that when the Expectations Index falls below 80\, it has historically signalled a heightened risk of recession. \nMarkets watch this release because consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of US economic output. A sharp drop in confidence can be an early warning that households are about to pull back on spending\, which feeds into growth forecasts\, corporate earnings and\, indirectly\, decisions at the Federal Reserve. It is a sentiment survey rather than a hard spending number\, so it is watched alongside actual retail sales and jobs data rather than in isolation. \nWhen is the August Consumer Confidence Index released?\nThe report is scheduled for August 25\, 2026 at 10:00am ET (3:00pm London time)\, released by The Conference Board on its own website and distributed simultaneously through newswires. As noted above\, this date has not been formally confirmed by the publisher and is based on the Conference Board’s usual practice of releasing the index on the last Tuesday of the month\, as it did with the June 30\, 2026 and July 28\, 2026 reports. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 reading has not yet been published. Economist surveys for this release are typically compiled by data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters in the days immediately before the report\, so a specific number is unlikely to appear until closer to August 25\, 2026. \nThe most recent published reading is 90.8 for July 2026\, down 1.4 points from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June\, according to The Conference Board. That July figure came in below the roughly 92.3 to 92.4 consensus that economists had pencilled in\, according to Advisor Perspectives. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline Consumer Confidence Index\n90.8\nNot yet published\n\n\nPresent Situation Index\n114.9\nNot yet published\n\n\nExpectations Index\n74.7\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nCould ease concerns about a consumer-led slowdown and support the view that the labour market is holding up\, though analysts note one month rarely shifts Federal Reserve policy on its own\nHouseholds feel more comfortable about jobs and spending than expected\, which may support retail and travel-related shares\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLikely to have limited market impact\, with attention shifting quickly to the Present Situation and Expectations components underneath the headline number\nConfidence is roughly where economists expected\, so no major change to the economic outlook\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCould reinforce the “downward sloping trajectory” that Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson has described in recent releases\, and may fuel debate about slowing consumer spending\nHouseholds are feeling more nervous than expected\, often about jobs or prices\, which can be an early sign of weaker spending ahead\n\n\n\nThese are possible reactions described by commentators\, not predictions\, and actual market moves depend on other data released the same week. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nConfidence has been on what Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson called “a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021\,” according to the Conference Board’s July 2026 release. The Present Situation Index fell for a third consecutive month in July 2026\, dropping to its lowest level since February 2021\, while the Expectations Index has stayed below the Conference Board’s recession-warning threshold of 80 since February 2025. \nThe labour market has been a particular focus. The Conference Board’s “labour market differential”\, which tracks the share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful minus those saying jobs are hard to get\, fell to its lowest level since February 2021 in July\, according to the same release. Inflation expectations have eased slightly over recent months\, which analysts have flagged as one of the few more encouraging threads in an otherwise softening survey. \nBecause the Federal Reserve watches household sentiment as one input into its view of consumer spending and the labour market\, a further deterioration in the Expectations Index could add to the case some policymakers make for interest rate cuts\, while a stabilisation could support those who prefer to hold rates steady. The report also matters outside the US: American consumer spending trends affect demand for goods made in Asia and Europe\, and shifts in the dollar tied to Fed rate expectations feed through to the pound and euro. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing rates: a weaker than expected reading can add to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates\, which tends to pull US mortgage rates and other borrowing costs lower over time\, with knock-on effects on global bond yields that also influence UK and European mortgage pricing.\nSavings: if the report feeds expectations of Fed rate cuts\, savers holding cash in US dollar accounts or money market funds could eventually see lower returns on new deposits\, though existing fixed-rate savings are unaffected.\nJobs and wages: the survey’s labour market components are watched by employers and workers alike\, since a sustained drop in how “plentiful” people think jobs are has historically coincided with slower hiring.\nPrices: the inflation expectations captured in the survey matter because if households expect prices to keep rising\, they may demand higher wages or bring forward purchases\, which can itself add to inflation pressure.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: a sharp move in confidence can ripple through US equity markets\, and because pension funds worldwide hold significant US assets\, this can affect pension valuations in the UK and Europe. Shifts in confidence also feed into dollar strength or weakness\, affecting the pound and euro exchange rates for anyone travelling\, importing or exporting.\n\nRelated events\n\nUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment\, a separate monthly US sentiment survey often watched alongside this one for comparison.\nUS non-farm payrolls and jobless claims\, which provide the hard labour market data behind the survey’s sentiment.\nThe next Federal Reserve interest rate decision\, which weighs consumer confidence data alongside inflation and employment figures.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the August 2026 Consumer Confidence report released?\nIt is scheduled for 10:00am ET\, which is 3:00pm in London\, on August 25\, 2026\, though the Conference Board had not formally confirmed this date at the time of writing. \nHow should I read the Consumer Confidence Index?\nLook beyond the headline number to the Present Situation and Expectations components\, since the Conference Board and economists often draw different conclusions depending on which part is driving the move. \nHow does this data affect interest rates?\nIt is one of several data points the Federal Reserve considers when assessing the strength of consumer spending and the labour market\, so a run of weak readings can add to the case for lower interest rates\, though it rarely moves policy on its own. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe Conference Board publishes the report directly on its Consumer Confidence topic page\, with the data also distributed via newswire on release day. \nWhen is the next Consumer Confidence report after this one?\nThe Conference Board typically releases the index on the last Tuesday of each month\, so the following report would be expected in late September 2026\, subject to official confirmation.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-consumer-confidence-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260820T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260820T130000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104626Z
CREATED:20260818T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104626Z
UID:1326-1787227200-1787230800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:WMT Earnings August 2026
DESCRIPTION:WMT Quarterly Earnings: Adj. EPS $0.81 (beat $0.75 consensus); Revenue $187.9bn (beat $186.94bn guidance); Walmart US comp sales +2.6% (missed ~3.7% estimate); Operating income +28.8% (incl. ~$2.9bn one-time tariff refund); FY2027 EPS guidance raised to $2.80-$2.87 (Thursday\, August 20\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nEPS $0.72-$0.74 (company guidance)\, analyst consensus $0.75; Revenue ~$186.9bn\nActual\nAdj. EPS $0.81 (beat $0.75 consensus); Revenue $187.9bn (beat $186.94bn guidance); Walmart US comp sales +2.6% (missed ~3.7% estimate); Operating income +28.8% (incl. ~$2.9bn one-time tariff refund); FY2027 EPS guidance raised to $2.80-$2.87\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nWalmart (NYSE: WMT) published its Q2 FY2027 earnings results on Thursday\, 20 August 2026\, before market open\, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $0.81 against an analyst consensus of $0.75. Total revenue of $187.9 billion exceeded guidance\, though Walmart US comparable store sales grew just 2.6% (excluding fuel)\, falling short of the approximately 3.7% estimate. WMT shares fell 9.1% on the day as investors focused on the quality of the earnings beat and soft Q3 guidance. Full results\, market reaction\, and analysis are set out below. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nEarnings Date\nThursday\, August 20\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\nBefore market open (7:00 AM CT)\n\n\nFiscal Quarter\nQ2 FY2027 (ended July 31\, 2026)\n\n\nAnalyst EPS Consensus\n$0.75\n\n\nCompany Revenue Guidance\n$186.94bn\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat Is the Walmart Q2 FY2027 Earnings Report?\nWalmart Inc. is the world’s largest retailer by revenue\, operating over 10\,500 stores across 19 countries under banners including Walmart\, Sam’s Club\, and Flipkart. Its fiscal year runs from February 1 to January 31\, meaning Q2 FY2027 covers the three months from May 1 to July 31\, 2026. Walmart reports quarterly earnings four times per year\, with results typically released before market open followed by a management conference call for investors and analysts. \nAs the largest single employer in the United States and a dominant force in consumer staples and grocery retail\, Walmart’s earnings are widely treated as a barometer for the health of the American consumer. The company’s ability to maintain or grow comparable store sales across income segments provides a direct read on spending patterns that neither government data nor any other single retailer can match. Walmart has increasingly disclosed granular data on customer income demographics\, making its commentary on consumer behaviour a data source that economists\, policymakers\, and market strategists analyse closely. \nThe Q2 FY2027 report will cover a quarter that spans the late-spring to early-summer period of 2026\, capturing both back-to-school pre-planning spending and the ongoing effects of tariff-driven goods price inflation on consumer purchasing decisions. With fuel costs elevated throughout the quarter and consumer confidence at or near record lows according to the University of Michigan survey\, the interplay between volume and price across Walmart’s categories will be a central focus of the August 20 release. \nWalmart Q2 FY2027: What to Expect\nWalmart provided guidance for Q2 FY2027 during its Q1 FY2027 earnings call in May 2026. The company guided for adjusted earnings per share of $0.72 to $0.74 (USD) for Q2\, compared to the analyst consensus estimate of $0.75. Revenue guidance was set at approximately $186.94 billion. This guidance came slightly below analyst expectations\, with Walmart citing higher fuel costs in distribution and fulfilment as a 250 basis point drag on operating income and expressing caution about whether lower-income consumers would pull back further as gas prices remained elevated. \nIn Q1 FY2027\, Walmart delivered revenue of $177.8 billion (a 7.3% year-over-year increase that beat analyst expectations of $174.98 billion)\, with adjusted EPS of $0.66 in line with consensus. Comparable US store sales rose 4.1%\, excluding fuel\, ahead of the expected 3.85%. E-commerce volume grew 26% and the advertising segment expanded 37%. The Q1 result demonstrated that Walmart’s scale and everyday-low-price positioning allow it to attract cost-conscious consumers even in a high-inflation environment. \nFor Q2\, analysts will assess whether Walmart can sustain the revenue momentum while managing fuel\, labour\, and tariff-related cost pressures. The company’s pharmacy division\, membership-based Sam’s Club\, and high-growth Walmart+ subscription service will all be scrutinised for signals of structural revenue diversification beyond core grocery and general merchandise. \nWhat to Watch For\nThe Q2 FY2027 earnings report will be evaluated across several key dimensions: \n\nBeat on EPS and Revenue: If Walmart reports adjusted EPS above $0.75 and revenue above $186.94 billion\, the market is likely to react positively. A beat would signal that Walmart’s cost management is effective and that consumer demand remains robust enough to absorb higher prices. Shares could rise 2% to 4% in early trading\, and other large-cap retailers may benefit from read-across sentiment.\nIn Line with Guidance: EPS in the $0.72 to $0.74 range with revenue near $186.94 billion would confirm guidance but fall short of analyst consensus\, likely producing a muted or slightly negative share price reaction. Attention would shift to FY2027 full-year guidance and management commentary on the consumer outlook.\nMiss on EPS or Revenue: A miss below guidance would be a significant negative signal. Given that Walmart had already set conservative guidance\, a miss would raise concerns that consumer demand is weakening more sharply than expected. Shares could fall 3% to 6%\, and the negative read-across to other consumer-facing companies could pressure the broader retail sector.\n\nOutcome: Walmart beat on both adjusted EPS ($0.81 vs $0.75 consensus) and revenue ($187.9bn vs $186.94bn guided)\, placing the result closest to the “Beat on EPS and Revenue” scenario. However\, the stock did not rise as the scenario anticipated. Instead WMT fell 9.1%\, because markets focused on the soft Walmart US comparable store sales (+2.6% vs ~3.7% expected)\, the non-recurring tariff refund that inflated operating income\, and Q3 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.62-$0.64 that was below consensus. The 9.1% decline exceeded even the “Miss” scenario’s projected 3%-6% fall\, illustrating that guidance quality and earnings mix mattered more than the headline beat. \nBeyond the headline numbers\, the conference call commentary from Walmart’s management team on consumer behaviour will be of particular value. Any changes in the mix of spending between grocery and general merchandise\, signals of lower-income consumer stress\, or updates to the trajectory of fuel and logistics costs will influence market interpretation of the results and of the broader consumer spending outlook for Q3 2026. \nResults: WMT Earnings August 2026\nWalmart reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.81 for Q2 FY2027\, beating the analyst consensus of $0.75 and comfortably above the company’s own guidance range of $0.72 to $0.74. Total revenue reached $187.9 billion\, up 5.9% year-on-year and above the guided figure of $186.94 billion. Reported operating income rose 28.8% to $9.4 billion\, though analysts noted this included an estimated $2.9 billion one-time benefit from tariff refunds\, a figure that is not expected to recur in subsequent quarters. \nWalmart US comparable store sales grew 2.6% (excluding fuel)\, missing the analyst estimate of approximately 3.7%. Transaction growth was +1.5% and average ticket growth +1.1%. Sam’s Club US comparable sales grew 4.4% (excluding fuel)\, driven by 7.0% transaction growth. E-commerce growth and advertising revenue expansion continued at elevated rates. Walmart raised its FY2027 full-year guidance: net sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0% (from 3.5% to 4.5%)\, adjusted operating income growth of 7.0% to 8.5% (from 6.0% to 8.0%)\, and adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $2.87 (from $2.75 to $2.85). Q3 adjusted EPS guidance was set at $0.62 to $0.64\, a figure below consensus that became the primary driver of the negative market reaction. \nSources: Walmart Inc. Q2 FY2027 earnings press release\, corporate.walmart.com\, 20 August 2026; SEC Form 8-K\, earningsreleasefy27q2.htm; CNBC earnings analysis\, 20 August 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nWMT shares fell 9.1% on 20 August 2026\, declining from approximately $114 at the prior close to around $103.84 by the end of the session. This was Walmart’s worst earnings-day stock reaction in 10 consecutive quarters and the fourth consecutive negative share price response on an earnings day. Three factors drove the decline: the comparable store sales miss in the US core business\, market scepticism about the tariff-refund component of operating income\, and Q3 EPS guidance of $0.62 to $0.64 that signalled the outsized boost was not repeating. Notably\, Walmart had repurchased 25.7 million shares at an average price of $117.61 during Q2\, meaning the buyback occurred at prices well above the post-results market level. \nThe broader equity market declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% (approximately 700 points)\, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.0%\, and the S&P 500 fell 0.8%. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.69% and the 30-year yield rose 4 basis points to 5.24%. Retail sector stocks broadly fell in sympathy with Walmart. Markets partially recovered the following day\, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.43%\, the Nasdaq 0.43%\, and the Dow 0.98%. \nKey Takeaways From the Statement\nChief executive John Furner said Walmart had seen “unprecedented growth” in advertising\, membership\, and data services over the past two decades\, highlighting the diversification of revenue beyond core retail. Chief financial officer John David Rainey described the business model as “only getting stronger and more durable.” Management cited elevated fuel prices (Brent crude near $93 per barrel during the quarter) as a headwind for lower-income consumers and noted customers were making “trade-offs” in discretionary purchasing. \nThe company confirmed it has continued to attract higher-income consumers (households earning above $100\,000 annually)\, a demographic shift that analysts at Coresight Research described as a structural positive. The Q3 guidance\, however\, made clear that the tariff-refund benefit was a one-time item and that full-year EPS guidance\, while raised\, reflected a more modest underlying trajectory than the headline Q2 beat suggested. Management did not signal any change in the pace of store openings or capital investment programmes. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe Q2 FY2027 result illustrates how earnings quality can matter as much as headline numbers. Walmart beat on both EPS and revenue\, and raised full-year guidance\, yet the stock fell more sharply than it would have on an outright miss. The core issue is that the $2.9 billion tariff-refund benefit was non-recurring: strip it out\, and the operating income picture looks more modest. The Walmart US comparable store sales reading of +2.6% pointed to a US consumer that is still spending\, but with growing selectivity\, particularly at lower income levels where fuel costs are a proportionally larger burden. \nFor investors in Walmart specifically\, UBS analyst Michael Lasser argued the decline represented “a good opportunity\,” noting the underlying EBITDA met the high end of guidance even excluding the tariff refund\, and that structural advantages in grocery\, e-commerce\, and advertising remain intact. For those watching the broader economy\, Walmart’s result is consistent with a picture of cautious but resilient US consumer spending\, with meaningful divergence between income cohorts. With the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium beginning on 27 August\, this consumer data point will form part of the backdrop against which central bankers assess the economic outlook. \nKey Metrics to Monitor\nComparable store sales (comp sales) in the United States\, excluding fuel\, are the single most closely watched sub-metric. Comp sales measure year-over-year revenue growth at stores open for at least one year\, stripping out the effect of new store openings. A reading of 3% or above would generally be considered solid; a reading below 2% would raise concern. Sam’s Club comparable sales and the membership fee revenue trend will also be relevant signals for the premium consumer segment. \nOperating margin is another key focus. Walmart has been navigating elevated distribution costs\, minimum wage increases\, and tariff-driven supply chain expense. Any improvement in operating margin year-over-year would be a positive signal for future earnings sustainability. E-commerce as a share of total sales continues to grow and will be watched for its impact on profitability\, since online fulfilment remains more expensive per unit than in-store sales for most categories. \nHistorical Results\n\n\n\nQuarter\nRevenue\nAdj. EPS\nUS Comp Sales (ex-fuel)\n\n\n\n\nQ1 FY2027 (May 2026)\n$177.8bn\n$0.66\n+4.1%\n\n\nQ2 FY2027 (Aug 2026)\n$187.9bn\n$0.81\n+2.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Walmart Inc. official earnings releases and investor relations communications. Historical quarterly series for prior FY2026 quarters not fully available in verified sources at time of writing. \nMarket Positioning\nWalmart shares tend to trade with relatively low volatility compared to other large-cap earnings events\, given the company’s defensive positioning and predictable business model. However\, in an environment where consumer spending signals are actively scrutinised\, the Q2 results could have broader market implications. The earnings report will arrive one week before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (August 27-29)\, meaning Walmart’s consumer commentary could shape the market’s economic narrative heading into the most important central banking event of the summer. \nInstitutional investors will also watch for any update to Walmart’s FY2027 full-year guidance. The company’s full-year EPS guidance of $2.75 to $2.85 fell below the analyst consensus of $2.92\, creating a potential upside catalyst if Q2 performance enables a guidance raise. A narrowing of the gap between company guidance and consensus\, or an outright upgrade\, would be a meaningful positive signal for Walmart shares and the consumer sector broadly. \nRelated Events\n\nUS Retail Sales August 2026 – Released August 14\, providing the official government retail spending data for July that will form part of the backdrop for Walmart’s Q2 report.\nUS Employment Situation August 2026 – Released August 7\, the labour market data provides context for consumer purchasing power ahead of Walmart’s results.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The August 27-29 gathering will incorporate Walmart’s consumer commentary as part of the broader economic picture discussed by central bankers.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhen does Walmart report Q2 FY2027 earnings?\nWalmart will release its Q2 FY2027 earnings results on Thursday\, August 20\, 2026\, before market open at 7:00 AM CT (8:00 AM ET). The quarterly earnings materials will be available at approximately 6:00 AM CT on the date of release. A live investor conference call will begin at 7:00 AM CT and will be accessible via the Walmart investor relations website at stock.walmart.com. \nWhat fiscal quarter does the August 2026 report cover?\nThe August 20 report covers Walmart’s Q2 FY2027\, which is the three-month period from May 1\, 2026\, to July 31\, 2026. Walmart’s fiscal year runs from February 1 to January 31\, so the August report is the second of the four quarterly reports for Walmart’s FY2027 financial year. \nWhy is Walmart’s earnings report treated as a consumer spending indicator?\nWalmart is the largest retailer in the United States by sales volume and serves customers across all income groups\, including a disproportionately large share of lower- and middle-income households. Because Walmart’s sales capture a broad cross-section of consumer spending on groceries\, general merchandise\, healthcare\, and fuel\, its results provide a real-time signal of US consumer health that complements official government data. The company’s management commentary on customer behaviour and spending patterns is closely analysed by economists and policymakers as a high-frequency consumer barometer.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/wmt-earnings-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260818T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260818T130000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104544Z
CREATED:20260816T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104544Z
UID:1414-1787054400-1787058000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:HD Earnings August 2026
DESCRIPTION:HD Quarterly Earnings: Adj. EPS $4.92 vs $4.73 consensus; comps +1.7% vs +0.9% expected; revenue $47.9bn; FY2026 guidance reaffirmed (Tuesday\, August 18\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London)). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nConsensus\n$4.73 adjusted EPS (vs $4.68 Q2 FY2025); Revenue ~$47bn\nActual\nAdj. EPS $4.92 vs $4.73 consensus; comps +1.7% vs +0.9% expected; revenue $47.9bn; FY2026 guidance reaffirmed\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nHome Depot\, Inc. (NYSE: HD) reported its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results before the market opened on Tuesday\, 18 August 2026\, delivering a clear beat on all headline metrics. Adjusted EPS of $4.92 surpassed the $4.73 Wall Street consensus\, net sales of $47.9 billion exceeded the $47 billion forecast\, and comparable store sales grew +1.7%\, significantly above the expected pace. Full-year guidance was reaffirmed. A conference call with investors and analysts was held at 9:00 a.m. ET on the same day. \n\nAt a Glance: HD Q2 FY2026 Earnings \n\nReport date: Tuesday\, August 18\, 2026\, before market open (BMO)\nConference call: 9:00 a.m. ET\nAdjusted EPS consensus: $4.73 (vs $4.68 in Q2 FY2025)\nRevenue consensus: approximately $47 billion\nKey watch: Comparable store sales growth\, gross margin\, full-year guidance tone\n\n\nWhat Is the Home Depot Earnings Report?\nHome Depot is the world’s largest home improvement retailer\, operating more than 2\,300 stores across North America. Each quarter\, the company reports total net sales\, comparable store sales growth (comps)\, gross margin\, operating income\, and earnings per share on both a reported (GAAP) and adjusted basis. The Q2 fiscal 2026 period covers the 13 weeks ending approximately August 3\, 2026. \nHome Depot publishes earnings four times per year\, typically in February\, May\, August\, and November. The August release covers the peak summer selling season\, historically the company’s strongest quarter. Results are scrutinised closely as a barometer for US housing market health\, consumer confidence\, and renovation spending. Home Depot is a constituent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average\, meaning its results can move index futures in pre-market trading and affect diversified investment portfolios globally. \nSince completing the acquisition of SRS Distribution in 2024\, a specialist distributor serving roofers\, landscapers\, and pool contractors\, Home Depot has substantially expanded its professional contractor addressable market. Management has sized the total Pro addressable market at $700 billion\, expanding further to $1.2 trillion with the May 2026 Mingledorff’s HVAC distribution acquisition. Full SRS integration means Q2 FY2026 carries a complete quarter of SRS revenue\, making direct year-over-year comparisons more complex. \nWhen Is the Home Depot Q2 FY2026 Earnings Release?\nHome Depot will publish its Q2 FY2026 results on Tuesday\, August 18\, 2026\, before the New York Stock Exchange opens at 9:30 a.m. ET. Results are typically posted to the investor relations website at ir.homedepot.com at approximately 6:00 a.m. ET. Management will host a live conference call at 9:00 a.m. ET (2:00 p.m. BST\, 11:00 p.m. AEST) to discuss results and take analyst questions. \nWhat Is the Consensus Forecast for HD Q2 FY2026?\nAccording to analyst estimates compiled by Yahoo Finance and TIKR\, the Wall Street consensus for Home Depot’s Q2 FY2026 stands at adjusted EPS of $4.73 per share versus $4.68 in Q2 FY2025\, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 1.1%\, and total revenue of approximately $47 billion versus approximately $43.2 billion in Q2 FY2025. On comparable store sales\, the market expects growth at or modestly above the Q1 FY2026 pace of +0.6%. \nThe revenue growth estimate is driven substantially by the full-quarter inclusion of SRS Distribution\, which was not present in the Q2 FY2025 comparison period. The EPS forecast of $4.73 reflects continued pressure on gross margins from tariff-related costs and the higher-cost product mix introduced by SRS. Home Depot’s fiscal 2026 full-year guidance\, issued in May 2026\, calls for comparable sales growth of flat to 2%\, total revenue growth of approximately 2.8%\, and adjusted diluted EPS of approximately $15.25. \nWhy Does the Home Depot Q2 Report Matter?\nHome Depot’s quarterly results are one of the most reliable coincident indicators for US housing market activity. When existing home sales are subdued and mortgage rates remain elevated\, consumers tend to renovate in place rather than move\, which can support HD’s comparable sales. However\, large discretionary projects costing more than $1\,000 have historically been deferred when consumer confidence weakens\, making each earnings release consequential for market sentiment. \nThe Q2 FY2026 report arrives at a critical juncture. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 4.60% in late July 2026 amid oil price concerns and geopolitical tensions\, adding pressure to an already stretched US mortgage market. Home Depot guided full-year comps to flat-to-2% growth\, explicitly stating the second half of fiscal 2026 would need to deliver the recovery the first half had not yet confirmed. Q2 is the report where that recovery thesis is either validated or deferred. \nWhat to Watch in the HD Q2 FY2026 Report\nAnalysts have flagged several metrics beyond the headline EPS as critical drivers of the market reaction: \n\nComparable store sales: Q1 FY2026 delivered +0.6%. Holding at or above that level is the minimum bar to sustain the full-year guidance narrative. A negative comp print would raise serious questions about the second-half recovery assumption.\nGross margin: Q1 saw gross margin fall approximately 75 basis points year-over-year to 33.0%\, driven by higher-cost SRS product mix and tariff pass-through. Management indicated Q2 headwinds would be “not quite the degree” seen in Q1. Any further deterioration beyond this would be a negative for the stock.\nPro contractor performance: The Office of Pro Acceleration was announced July 30\, 2026. Any quantified update on SRS cross-sell progress or the $400 million run rate target will be closely scrutinised.\nFull-year guidance revision: Markets will pay close attention to whether management raises\, maintains\, or cuts its fiscal 2026 EPS or comparable sales guidance. Even a maintained guidance with a more cautious tone on the second half can weigh on the stock.\n\nWhat the Result Could Mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely Market Read\nPlain-English Implication\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensusEPS > $4.73\, comp > 1.0%\nBullish: stock likely rallies toward analyst targets near $370; housing recovery narrative gains credibility; homebuilder stocks may trade up in sympathy\nConsumers are spending on home improvements despite elevated borrowing costs; the Pro segment is gaining traction\n\n\nIn line with consensusEPS $4.71-4.73\, comp 0.5-1.0%\nNeutral: stock moves modestly in either direction; focus shifts to guidance language and management commentary on the second half\nSteady state: neither a recessionary signal nor confirmation of a housing turnaround; full-year outlook remains intact\n\n\nBelow consensusEPS < $4.71 or negative comp\nBearish: stock sells off; Lowe’s and homebuilder stocks weaken in sympathy; full-year guidance may be cut; broader Dow Jones pressure in pre-market\nConsumers are pulling back on renovation spending; the second-half recovery thesis is under pressure; tariff pass-through may be weighing on demand\n\n\n\nThese scenarios are based on analyst commentary from TIKR\, Yahoo Finance\, and Seeking Alpha preview coverage. They represent interpretation frameworks\, not predictions about the actual outcome. \nUpdate\, 18 August 2026: The “Above Consensus” scenario landed. Adjusted EPS of $4.92 beat the $4.73 consensus and comparable store sales grew +1.7%\, well ahead of the expected +0.9%. Full results and market reaction below. \nResults: HD Q2 FY2026\nHome Depot reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.92 for Q2 FY2026\, beating the $4.73 Wall Street consensus by $0.19 (4.0%) and up 5.1% year-on-year from $4.68. Net sales reached $47.9 billion\, above the forecast of approximately $47 billion\, growing 5.7% compared with Q2 FY2025. Total comparable store sales grew +1.7%\, with US comparable sales up +1.3%\, both substantially ahead of the consensus expectation of approximately +0.9%. Gross margin came in at approximately 33.7%\, up roughly 25 basis points year-on-year\, though analysts noted the quarter benefited from $685 million in IEEPA tariff refunds that reduced cost of goods sold\, a one-time item. Full-year fiscal 2026 guidance was reaffirmed in full: comparable sales growth of flat to +2%\, total sales growth of +2.5% to +4.5%\, and adjusted diluted EPS growth of flat to +4.0% versus the $14.69 FY2025 base. (Sources: Home Depot Q2 FY2026 press release via PR Newswire; Yahoo Finance; TradingKey.) \nMarket Reaction\nHD shares rose approximately 2.1% in pre-market trading on 18 August 2026 before closing up 1.01% at $341.30\, a notable performance against a broader market decline. The S&P 500 fell 0.69% to 7\,691 on the day\, weighed down by rising oil prices\, elevated Treasury yields approaching multi-month highs\, and weakness in semiconductor stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average\, of which HD is a component\, fell approximately 0.2% to around 53\,343. Several major brokerages\, including DA Davidson\, Telsey Advisory\, Stifel\, and RBC Capital\, maintained or raised their Buy ratings following the results\, citing the comparable sales beat and the sustained guidance. (Sources: The Street market recap; Yahoo Finance live markets; TradingPedia.) \nKey Takeaways From the Statement\nManagement’s tone on the 18 August conference call was cautiously optimistic. The acceleration in comparable sales from +0.6% in Q1 FY2026 to +1.7% in Q2 provides the clearest evidence yet that the company’s second-half recovery thesis is on track. The newly announced Office of Pro Acceleration was discussed in the context of cross-selling SRS Distribution’s contractor relationships across the full Home Depot product range\, with the $400 million cross-sell run-rate target reaffirmed. Management did not revise guidance higher despite the beat\, citing continued macroeconomic uncertainty\, particularly elevated mortgage rates and the 10-year US Treasury yield above 4.60%. The IEEPA tariff refund of $685 million boosted Q2 gross margin but will not recur; full-year gross margin guidance was maintained at approximately 33.1%\, implying that second-half margins will face the persistent cost pressure seen in Q1. Analysts flagged this nuance when assessing the underlying quality of the earnings beat. (Sources: Home Depot Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript; PR Newswire press release; TradingKey analysis.) \nHome Depot Quarterly Earnings History\n\n\n\nQuarter\nReport Date\nAdj. EPS\nComp Sales\n\n\n\n\nQ1 FY2026 (ended May 4\, 2026)\nMay 19\, 2026\n$3.43\n+0.6%\n\n\nQ4 FY2025 (ended Feb 1\, 2026)\nFebruary 2026\n$2.58\nN/A\n\n\nQ2 FY2025 (ended Aug 4\, 2025)\nAugust 2025\n$4.68\nN/A\n\n\nQ1 FY2025 (ended May 5\, 2025)\nMay 2025\n$3.56\nN/A\n\n\nQ4 FY2024 (ended Feb 3\, 2025)\nFebruary 2025\n$3.02\nN/A\n\n\nFY2025 Full Year\nFebruary 2026\n$14.69\nN/A\n\n\n\nWhat It Means for Your Money\nHome Depot’s quarterly results reach considerably further than investors who hold HD shares. Here is how the report is likely to affect different groups: \n\nHomeowners and renovators: Home Depot’s pricing on materials\, tools\, and appliances reflects the cost of tariffs on imported goods. If the company signals further price increases to protect margins\, consumers worldwide can expect higher renovation project costs\, regardless of where they shop.\nMortgage holders and prospective buyers: Comparable store sales are a proxy for existing home market activity. A strong comp reading suggests housing transactions are recovering; a weak one indicates the market remains frozen by elevated mortgage rates\, with knock-on effects for housing affordability across the US\, UK\, and Australia.\nPension savers and index investors: Home Depot is a Dow Jones Industrial Average component and a major holding in global equity index funds. A significant earnings miss or guidance cut would weigh on both the Dow and S&P 500\, affecting diversified retirement portfolios worldwide\, including those held by UK and European investors through index tracker funds.\nConstruction and trades workers: Strong Professional contractor sales signal healthy activity in roofing\, renovation\, and landscaping trades. A weak Pro reading could indicate softness in commercial renovation activity more broadly.\n\nPost-event note\, 18 August 2026: Home Depot’s Q2 beat confirmed that consumers are still spending on home improvement despite elevated mortgage rates\, validating the renovation-in-place narrative. Comparable sales recovery was aided by higher average ticket sizes (+2.8% to $92.50) rather than a broad increase in transaction volumes\, which declined 1.0%\, suggesting larger project spending rather than everyday traffic growth. The reaffirmed rather than raised full-year guidance\, combined with the one-time tariff refund benefit to margins\, indicates management is not yet ready to declare a decisive housing recovery. The Pro segment’s progress and any update on the Mingledorff’s HVAC acquisition integration will be the key metrics to watch in the Q3 FY2026 report in November. \nRelated Events\n\nWMT Earnings August 2026 – Walmart also reports in August 2026\, providing a broader picture of US consumer spending alongside Home Depot’s home improvement focus.\nUS Retail Sales August 2026 – The Census Bureau retail sales release provides the macro context for whether consumer spending held up through the summer selling season.\nNVDA Earnings August 2026 – Nvidia also reports earnings in August\, continuing the Q2 earnings season for major US corporations.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat Does Home Depot Report on August 18\, 2026?\nHome Depot will report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings\, covering the 13 weeks ended approximately August 3\, 2026. The report includes total net sales\, comparable store sales growth\, gross margin\, operating profit\, and both GAAP and adjusted diluted EPS\, alongside a revised full-year fiscal 2026 outlook. \nWhat Time Is the Home Depot Q2 2026 Conference Call?\nResults are released before the New York Stock Exchange opens on August 18\, 2026. The investor conference call is at 9:00 a.m. ET (2:00 p.m. BST / 11:00 p.m. AEST). The call is accessible via ir.homedepot.com\, with a replay typically available within 24 hours. \nHow Does Home Depot’s Earnings Report Affect Markets?\nHome Depot is a Dow Jones Industrial Average component and one of the most widely held stocks in global equity index funds. A material beat or miss relative to the $4.73 EPS consensus can move Dow futures in pre-market trading and affect related sectors including homebuilders\, Lowe’s\, and broader consumer discretionary ETFs. The comparable store sales figure is particularly closely watched as a signal for US housing market health.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/hd-earnings-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Earnings Season
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260818T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260818T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104615Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104615Z
UID:1325-1787041800-1787045400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts): 1.239 million SAAR (vs 1.350 million consensus); -12.4% MoM; permits beat at 1.443 million SAAR (+5.0% MoM) (Tuesday\, August 18\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nActual\n1.239 million SAAR (vs 1.350 million consensus); -12.4% MoM; permits beat at 1.443 million SAAR (+5.0% MoM)\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts)Next US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) →\nThe US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released the New Residential Construction report for July 2026 on Tuesday\, 18 August 2026\, at 8:30 AM EDT. Total housing starts came in at 1.239 million units (SAAR)\, significantly below the consensus forecast of approximately 1.350 million units and down 12.4% from the revised June figure of 1.415 million\, the weakest pace for single-family starts since late 2022. Building permits provided the sole positive surprise\, rising 5.0% to 1.443 million units. The report arrives in a data-heavy week alongside retail sales and the producer price index. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nTuesday\, August 18\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\n8:30 AM EDT\n\n\nPublished By\nUS Census Bureau and HUD\n\n\nReference Month\nJuly 2026\n\n\nPrior Reading (April 2026)\n1\,465\,000 units (SAAR)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat Are Housing Starts?\nHousing starts measure the number of new residential construction projects that begin in a given month\, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The monthly New Residential Construction report\, jointly published by the Census Bureau and HUD\, covers single-family homes and multi-family structures of five units or more. It is released on the 12th working day after the reference month\, placing the August 18 publication squarely within the standard release calendar for July 2026 data. \nThe report includes three components: starts (projects begun)\, building permits (approvals to build\, a forward-looking signal)\, and completions (units finished and entering the housing supply). All three are reported as seasonally adjusted annual rates and broken down by region and unit type. Single-family starts and permits receive particular attention as the most direct indicator of homebuilder confidence and consumer housing demand. \nHousing starts connect directly to employment in construction and related industries\, materials demand across the supply chain\, and consumer spending on home-related goods and services. For the Federal Reserve (the Fed)\, the new housing supply produced by construction activity is a key long-term driver of shelter cost inflation\, making starts data relevant to the inflation outlook across a multi-year horizon. \nHousing Starts Release: August 18\, 2026\nThe August 18 report will reveal July 2026 housing starts. By this date\, the May 2026 data (released June 16)\, June 2026 data (released July 17)\, and July data will together establish the summer construction trend. As of writing in early June 2026\, the most recent confirmed reading is April 2026 at 1\,465\,000 starts (SAAR)\, slightly below March’s 1\,502\,000. July represents the height of the summer building season in the northern United States\, when weather conditions are most favourable for construction across all regions. \nNo consensus forecast for July 2026 housing starts is available at time of writing. The summer months of 2026 will test whether the construction industry can maintain the elevated levels seen in early 2026\, or whether rising material costs\, tighter builder margins driven by energy and input cost inflation\, and persistent affordability challenges for buyers weigh on new project starts. The US New Residential Construction July 2026 report on July 17 will provide the most recent prior reading ahead of this August release. \nWhy This Release Matters\nThe August 18 housing starts data arrives in the same week as the US Retail Sales August 2026 report (August 14) and the US Producer Price Index August 2026 report (August 13). This confluence of major releases in the second week of August creates a dense data environment that will shape the economic narrative heading into the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 27-29\, where Fed Chair and other central bankers typically signal the direction of monetary policy for the remainder of the year. \nHousing starts data also feeds into the broader story of housing supply and affordability. A sustained period of strong new construction would add supply to a market that has been characterised by under-building relative to household formation for much of the 2010s and early 2020s. Increasing supply\, all else equal\, tends to dampen home price appreciation and eventually reduce the shelter CPI component\, which has been a persistent source of consumer inflation. For the Fed\, strong housing supply growth is therefore a medium-term disinflationary force even as it reflects short-term economic strength. \nIn equity markets\, homebuilder shares\, building material companies\, and mortgage providers will be most directly affected. The August 18 release also has implications for home improvement retailers and appliance manufacturers\, whose sales are closely linked to new construction volumes. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nAbove 1\,490\,000 units: A strong reading would confirm that the summer building season has sustained momentum from spring 2026\, boosting homebuilder equities and signalling resilient residential investment in Q3 GDP. For the Fed\, continued strong housing activity would reduce the urgency for stimulative rate cuts.\nIn line (approximately 1\,440\,000 to 1\,490\,000 units): A reading consistent with the 2026 range would confirm stability. Market reaction would likely be muted\, with the focus shifting to building permits as the more forward-looking component.\nBelow 1\,400\,000 units: A meaningful miss\, particularly if also accompanied by weak building permits\, would raise concern about a deterioration in housing market conditions heading into the autumn. Homebuilder stocks would face selling pressure\, and the data would add to arguments for Fed rate cuts at the September meeting.\n\nKey sub-components to monitor: single-family starts (most economically sensitive)\, building permits (forward-looking signal for the next one to three months)\, and the regional breakdown\, particularly the South\, which accounts for the largest share of US housing construction and is most representative of national trends. \nUpdate\, 18 August 2026: The actual July reading of 1.239 million units fell significantly below the 1\,400\,000-unit threshold identified as the key concern scenario. Single-family starts of 808\,000 SAAR were the weakest since late 2022. Building permits were the sole bright spot. Full results and market reaction below. \nResults: July 2026 Housing Starts\nTotal housing starts for July 2026 came in at 1.239 million units (SAAR)\, according to the US Census Bureau and HUD\, a significant miss relative to the consensus forecast of approximately 1.350 million units. The reading represented a month-on-month decline of 12.4% from the revised June figure of 1.415 million\, and was 13.5% lower year-on-year compared with July 2025’s 1.432 million. Single-family starts fell to 808\,000 SAAR\, down 9.9% from June and the weakest reading for that category since late 2022. Multi-family starts (five units or more) dropped approximately 16.8% month-on-month to around 431\,000 SAAR. Housing completions fell 9.1% to 1.212 million SAAR\, the lowest level since May 2020. The sole positive component was building permits\, which rose 5.0% month-on-month to 1.443 million SAAR\, beating the expected consensus of approximately 1.370-1.380 million. Single-family permits rose 2.5% to 894\,000 and multi-family permits increased 9.4% to approximately 549\,000. The divergence between rising permits and sharply falling starts suggests builders are filing plans but pausing on groundbreaking\, likely due to affordability constraints and the 30-year mortgage rate standing at approximately 6.75-6.77%\, near the highest level of 2026. (Sources: US Census Bureau and HUD New Residential Construction press release; NAHB Eye on Housing; Reuters/Investing.com.) \nMarket Reaction\nUS Treasury yields rose sharply on 18 August 2026\, with the 10-year yield reaching approximately 4.70-4.75% and the 30-year bond yield approaching 5.29-5.32%\, near a 19-year high\, as broader fiscal and inflation concerns combined with the weak housing data to sustain selling pressure in the bond market. The S&P 500 fell 0.69% to approximately 7\,691\, its third consecutive declining session\, with the housing starts miss contributing to a broader risk-off tone alongside elevated energy prices and semiconductor sector weakness. The NAHB Housing Market Index for August\, released the previous day\, came in at 35\, marginally above July’s 34 but well below its long-run average of approximately 51\, consistent with the depressed construction activity reported in the July starts data. (Sources: TheStreet stock market recap; Yahoo Finance live markets; NAHB Eye on Housing August 2026.) \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe July 2026 housing starts miss has practical implications across a range of financial situations: \n\nProspective homebuyers: Fewer new homes being built tightens housing supply at a difficult moment. With mortgage rates near their 2026 highs of approximately 6.75-6.77%\, the combination of constrained new supply and elevated borrowing costs continues to restrict affordability for first-time buyers in the US.\nExisting homeowners: Persistently low new supply continues to support home values in most US markets. However\, elevated mortgage rates reduce refinancing opportunities and constrain the move-up market\, limiting homeowners’ ability to realise that equity through a sale.\nBond and fixed-income investors: The 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5.30% reflects a market pricing in sustained inflation pressure and fiscal risk. The weak housing data may\, over the medium term\, add to the case for the Fed to cut rates if shelter inflation moderates as a result of sustained supply shortfalls meeting declining demand.\nFederal Reserve watchers: The weak starts data adds to the argument for rate cuts at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. However\, the Fed is balancing elevated long-term bond yields and sticky services inflation against signs of housing market deterioration. The building permits beat provides some evidence that the construction sector is not in freefall\, which may moderate urgency for immediate easing. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 27-29 August is the next major signpost.\nPension savers and index investors: The S&P 500 decline on 18 August\, driven partly by the housing miss and partly by broader bond yield concerns\, continues a pattern of late-summer volatility. Investors in global equity tracker funds will have seen modest losses on the day\, with the decline broad-based across sectors.\n\nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nActual (SAAR\, thousands)\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nJanuary 2026\n1\,487\nPost-holiday surge\n\n\nMarch 2026\n1\,502\n2026 high to date\n\n\nApril 2026\n1\,465\n-2.8% pullback\n\n\nMay 2026\nTBC (released June 16)\n–\n\n\nJune 2026\nTBC (released July 17)\n–\n\n\nJuly 2026\nTBC (released August 18)\nPeak summer month\n\n\n\nSource: US Census Bureau and HUD. All figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) in thousands of units. \nMarket Positioning\nBy mid-August 2026\, the market will have a fuller picture of H1 2026 housing trends from the May\, June\, and July data releases. If the pattern shows sustained starts above 1\,460\,000 through the spring and summer\, it will be a positive signal for housing supply and a potential disinflationary tailwind for shelter costs in H2 2026 and into 2027. A pattern of slowing starts would paint a less encouraging picture and increase concern about housing supply constraints persisting. \nThe August 18 release also comes just before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 starting August 27\, making it one of the final major domestic economic data points before global central bankers convene to discuss the economic outlook. A strong set of August data releases\, including housing\, could set a confident tone ahead of Jackson Hole. A weak set would raise the stakes for any policy signal from the Fed Chair. \nRelated Events\n\nUS New Residential Construction July 2026 – Released July 17\, providing the most recent prior housing starts reading ahead of this August release.\nUS Retail Sales August 2026 – Released August 14 in the same week\, providing a concurrent read on consumer spending conditions in July.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The August 27-29 gathering will incorporate the July housing data as part of the economic assessment presented by Fed officials.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the August 2026 housing starts report cover?\nThe New Residential Construction report released on August 18\, 2026\, covers July 2026 data. It includes housing starts (projects begun in July)\, building permits (approvals issued in July)\, and housing completions (units finished in July). All figures are expressed as seasonally adjusted annual rates in thousands of units. \nWhen is the August 2026 housing starts data released?\nThe US Census Bureau and HUD will publish the New Residential Construction report for July 2026 on Tuesday\, August 18\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM EDT. The report is available on the Census Bureau website at census.gov/construction/nrc immediately upon release. \nWhy do housing starts matter for inflation?\nNew home construction adds to the supply of housing available for purchase or rent. A sustained increase in construction activity tends to moderate home price appreciation and\, over a lag of one to two years\, can reduce rent pressures. Because shelter costs (owners equivalent rent and actual rents) comprise a substantial share of the Consumer Price Index\, increases in housing supply are an important long-term disinflationary force. The Federal Reserve factors housing activity into its multi-year inflation outlook for this reason.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-new-residential-construction-housing-starts-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260814T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260814T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104613Z
CREATED:20260812T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104613Z
UID:1308-1786696200-1786699800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Retail Sales August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE): -0.6% MoM vs +0.1% expected; ex-autos: -0.3%; control group: -0.4%; total $763.6bn. (Friday\, August 14\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet available\nActual\n-0.6% MoM vs +0.1% expected; ex-autos: -0.3%; control group: -0.4%; total $763.6bn.\n\nFull schedule and background: US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE). \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE)Next US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) →\nUpdate (14 August 2026): The US Census Bureau released Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for July 2026 on Friday\, August 14\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Retail sales fell 0.6% month on month\, the largest monthly decline in more than a year\, sharply missing the +0.1% consensus forecast. The miss raised concerns about the health of the US consumer ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. \n\n\n\nAt a Glance\n\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nFriday\, August 14\, 2026\, 8:30 a.m. ET\n\n\nData Covered\nJuly 2026 retail and food services sales\n\n\nPublished By\nUS Census Bureau\n\n\nPrior Reading (MoM)\n+0.5% (April 2026)\n\n\nPrior Reading (YoY)\n+4.9% (April 2026)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nHigh\n\n\n\nWhat is the US Retail Sales Report?\nThe Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services\, commonly known as retail sales\, is published by the US Census Bureau each month and provides the earliest estimate of consumer spending at US retail establishments. The report covers sales at all types of retailers\, from motor vehicle dealers and petrol stations to food and beverage stores\, clothing outlets\, and online retailers. Retail trade accounts for a substantial share of US personal consumption\, which itself represents approximately 70% of gross domestic product\, making the retail sales report one of the most watched leading indicators of economic health. \nThe report is published as an advance estimate\, typically released around 12 to 14 days after the reference month ends. It is subsequently revised in the Monthly Retail Trade survey. The advance estimate is subject to revision\, but financial markets react primarily to this initial release since it is the first available reading. The headline figure covers total retail and food services sales\, but economists also monitor the “control group” measure (which excludes motor vehicles\, petrol stations\, building materials\, and food services) as it maps more closely to the consumer spending component of GDP. \nFor August 14\, the Census Bureau will release July 2026 data. July is typically a strong month for retail activity\, with summer consumer spending on travel\, electronics\, and seasonal goods. The figure will be scrutinised against the backdrop of persistently elevated PCE inflation and tight credit conditions to assess whether the US consumer is holding up or beginning to retrench. \nUS Retail Sales Release: August 14\, 2026\nConsensus forecasts for the August 14 release will be available in the week prior to the report\, informed by the May and June retail sales data that precede it. The most recent confirmed monthly reading (April 2026: +0.5% MoM) showed a moderation after the unusually large March jump of +1.7%\, which was driven by a record 15.5% surge in petrol station receipts amid elevated fuel prices in early 2026. Markets will be looking to assess whether underlying consumer demand\, stripped of the petrol price distortion\, has remained stable. \nThe August 14 release falls at an important juncture. The US CPI Report for August 2026\, published on August 12\, will be available just two days earlier\, giving traders an initial inflation read before the retail spending data arrives. Together\, CPI (August 12) and retail sales (August 14) form a two-day data cluster that will heavily influence near-term assessments of the US economy ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium beginning August 27. \nThe US Employment Situation for August 2026\, released August 7\, will be the other key input for traders building their position ahead of Jackson Hole. Strong jobs data followed by firm retail sales would paint a resilient consumer picture and reduce the probability of a near-term rate cut. \nWhy This Retail Sales Release Matters\nRetail sales in July 2026 will provide the first hard evidence of how summer consumer spending is tracking. Economists use monthly retail sales data alongside personal consumption expenditures figures to estimate Q3 GDP growth in real time. A strong July reading\, particularly in the control group\, would support a robust Q3 GDP estimate and suggest the US economy is absorbing the Fed’s tightening without significant consumer-side weakness. \nConversely\, a weak July retail sales print would add to the growing body of evidence that high PCE inflation is eroding real consumer purchasing power. Core PCE has risen from 2.7% in October 2025 to 3.3% by April 2026\, and if nominal retail spending growth is slowing while price levels remain elevated\, it implies real consumer spending is contracting. That would be a meaningful signal for policymakers debating whether restrictive rates are doing more harm than good. \nThe petrol station component bears watching. March 2026 saw a 15.5% surge in petrol receipts that distorted the headline retail number significantly. If fuel prices have stabilised or declined into July\, the petrol component should be a neutral or negative contributor\, allowing the underlying trend in discretionary spending to be more visible. Markets will strip out this component and focus on the core retail sales figures. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nHeadline retail sales above +0.6% MoM – A strong reading above consensus would signal consumer resilience and reduce the probability of a September rate cut. Likely to support equities in the consumer discretionary and financial sectors\, lift the dollar\, and push Treasury yields slightly higher.\nHeadline retail sales between +0.2% and +0.5% MoM – A solid but unspectacular reading consistent with modest consumer spending growth. Market reaction is likely to be muted; expectations for the Fed’s September decision will be informed primarily by the CPI and PCE reports.\nHeadline retail sales at or below 0.0% MoM – A flat or negative reading would raise concerns about consumer health and increase calls for a rate cut. Likely to weigh on equities\, push Treasury yields lower\, and potentially weaken the dollar.\n\nThe control group measure (ex-autos\, ex-gas\, ex-building materials\, ex-food services) will be the most important single number in the report\, as it feeds directly into the GDP consumption component. Analysts tracking real-time Q3 GDP estimates will revise their figures in the minutes following the 8:30 a.m. release based on the control group outcome. \nOutcome (14 August 2026): Retail sales came in at -0.6% MoM\, placing the result in the flat or negative scenario above. The miss was the largest in more than a year and ended a six-month streak of consecutive monthly gains in the control group. \nResults: US Retail Sales July 2026\nUS retail sales fell 0.6% month on month in July 2026\, according to the Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales release (14 August 2026). Total retail turnover came in at $763.6 billion\, down from a revised $768.6 billion in June. Year-on-year growth slowed to +5.0% from +6.7%. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.3% (consensus: +0.2%). The control group measure (ex-autos\, ex-gas\, ex-building materials\, ex-food services) fell 0.4%\, its first negative reading since September 2025 and the end of a six-month consecutive monthly gain streak. Motor vehicles and parts fell 1.8%; non-store (online) retailers fell 2.2%; electronics and appliances fell 0.5%; petrol stations fell 0.9%. Partial offsets came from clothing stores (+1.9%) and food services (+0.5%). Source: US Census Bureau\, August 14\, 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nUS equities pulled back on the miss: the S&P 500 fell 0.2%\, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%\, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%. Treasury yields moved higher counterintuitively\, as persistent inflation concerns outweighed the growth slowdown signal from the retail data. The 10-year yield rose approximately 6 to 7 basis points to 4.696%; the 30-year yield rose approximately 6 basis points to 5.27%; the 2-year yield rose approximately 3 basis points to 4.17%. The US dollar index retreated to 99.50\, down 0.4 to 0.7% against major peers\, as the weaker spending data reinforced a more cautious near-term economic outlook despite the yield moves. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe control group contraction reduces the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September meeting and reinforces a more cautious consumer spending outlook heading into Q3 2026. The counterintuitive rise in bond yields on the day reflects that markets remain more concerned about sticky inflation than slowing growth\, keeping the Fed in a difficult position. For investors\, the combination of soft spending and elevated inflation points toward continued volatility in rate-sensitive sectors. The data will feed directly into discussions at the Jackson Hole symposium (August 27 to 29)\, where the Fed Chair is likely to emphasise a data-dependent approach rather than signal a clear rate move. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Month\nData Month\nMoM Change\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nMay 2026\nApril 2026\n+0.5%\n+4.9% YoY; moderation after March spike\n\n\nApril 2026\nMarch 2026\n+1.7%\nAbove +1.4% consensus; petrol stations +15.5%\n\n\nMarch 2026\nFebruary 2026\n+0.7%\nUpwardly revised; solid underlying demand\n\n\nJan 2026\nDecember 2025\n~0.0%\nEssentially flat; holiday season normalisation\n\n\n\nThe March 2026 spike in retail sales\, driven by a 15.5% surge in petrol station receipts\, created significant noise in the headline figures. Underlying consumer demand\, as measured by the control group\, has been more stable. Markets have learned to look through petrol-driven distortions when assessing the fundamental trend in consumer spending. \nMarket Positioning\nAhead of August 14\, market positioning will be shaped by the July employment report (August 7) and the August CPI print (August 12). A strong NFP figure followed by firm CPI and solid retail sales would form a “trifecta” of resilient US economic data that significantly diminishes the probability of a September rate cut. In that scenario\, the US dollar would be expected to strengthen against major peers\, Treasury yields would rise\, and the equity market may see rotation from rate-sensitive sectors toward financials and energy. \nWeaker-than-expected readings across these three data points would build the case for a September cut and produce the opposite market reaction: lower yields\, a softer dollar\, and rotation into growth and technology stocks. The proximity of the Jackson Hole symposium (August 27-29) means these August data prints carry additional weight\, as they directly inform the narrative the Fed Chair presents at the most watched central banking conference of the year. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – Released two days earlier on August 12\, providing the July inflation reading that pairs with retail sales to assess the health of the US consumer.\nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) August 2026 – Released August 26\, the PCE report provides a complementary consumer spending and inflation read for July 2026.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The symposium begins August 27\, two weeks after the retail sales release; the July spending data will be directly referenced in discussions about the economic outlook.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the US retail sales report measure?\nThe Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services measures total receipts at US retail businesses\, including motor vehicle dealers\, fuel stations\, food stores\, clothing retailers\, and online sellers. It covers sales of goods (not services) and is the first monthly estimate of consumer spending on goods\, making it a leading indicator for both GDP and broader economic trends. \nWhen is the August 2026 retail sales report released?\nThe Census Bureau will publish the July 2026 advance retail sales report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday\, August 14\, 2026. \nWhat is the “control group” in retail sales and why does it matter?\nThe retail sales control group excludes motor vehicles\, petrol stations\, building materials\, and food services. This measure feeds directly into the personal consumption component of GDP calculations\, making it the figure economists use when estimating quarterly economic growth in real time. A strong control group reading is a direct positive signal for Q3 2026 GDP estimates.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-retail-sales-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260813T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260813T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104612Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104612Z
UID:1324-1786609800-1786613400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Producer Price Index August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Producer Price Index: Flat (0.0% MoM); 4.7% YoY (vs +0.2% MoM / 4.9% YoY consensus). Core ex-food/energy: +0.2% MoM\, +4.2% YoY. (Thursday\, August 13\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nActual\nFlat (0.0% MoM); 4.7% YoY (vs +0.2% MoM / 4.9% YoY consensus). Core ex-food/energy: +0.2% MoM\, +4.2% YoY.\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Producer Price IndexNext US Producer Price Index →\nUpdate (13 August 2026): The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July 2026 on Thursday\, August 13\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. Producer prices came in flat on the month (0.0% MoM) and rose 4.7% year-on-year\, below consensus expectations of +0.2% MoM and +4.9% YoY. The result marked a meaningful deceleration from the 6.0% year-on-year readings of April and May 2026\, offering the Federal Reserve a more favourable inflation picture ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nThursday\, August 13\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\n8:30 AM ET\n\n\nPublished By\nBureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\n\n\nReference Month\nJuly 2026\n\n\nPrior Reading (May 2026)\n+6.0% year-over-year\n\n\nMarket Impact\nMedium\n\n\n\nWhat Is the Producer Price Index?\nThe Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\, the PPI measures price changes at the wholesale or producer stage before goods and services reach consumers. Because producers typically pass cost increases along the supply chain over time\, rising PPI is a widely recognised leading indicator of future consumer price inflation. \nThe BLS publishes three main PPI measures: final demand (the headline figure\, covering goods and services sold to end users)\, intermediate demand (prices at earlier production stages)\, and crude materials (raw commodities). The core PPI for final demand\, which excludes volatile food and energy prices\, is closely monitored by policymakers and economists as a measure of underlying inflationary trends. The report is released approximately two weeks after the reference month ends\, positioning the August 13 publication as one of the earliest major inflation data points for July 2026. \nPPI Release: August 13\, 2026\nThe August 13 report will cover July 2026 producer prices. The May 2026 reading showed PPI final demand rising 6.0% year-over-year for the second consecutive month\, maintaining the elevated level first reached in April 2026 when the annual rate surged from 4.3% to 6.0%. This acceleration from the 3.0% full-year 2025 average has been driven by tariff cost pass-through to manufacturers\, energy price increases related to geopolitical tensions\, and elevated transportation and warehousing costs. \nBy August 13\, the June 2026 PPI reading (released July 15) will be available and will provide the most recent prior benchmark. No formal consensus estimate for July 2026 PPI is available at time of writing. The key question for the August 13 release will be whether producer prices have begun to ease as tariff impacts stabilise and year-on-year comparisons grow more demanding (base effects)\, or whether new cost pressures have sustained the elevated 6%-plus annual rate into the summer months. The US CPI Report August 2026 on August 12 will precede the PPI by one day\, setting the inflationary context for markets heading into the August 13 release. \nWhy This PPI Release Matters\nBy August 2026\, the trajectory of producer price inflation will be a central input to Federal Reserve policy discussions for the remainder of the year. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026\, typically held in late August (August 27-29)\, will gather global central bankers and economists to assess the economic outlook. The August 13 PPI release will be one of the final major inflation data points before that gathering\, and a reading that diverges significantly from expectations could significantly alter the tone of discussions at Jackson Hole. \nFor the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)\, sustained PPI inflation above 5% would complicate any return to rate-cutting mode. The transmission from producer prices to consumer prices runs on a lag of several months: elevated PPI in spring and summer 2026 would typically be expected to show up in CPI by autumn 2026\, potentially keeping consumer inflation above target. If the August PPI confirms that producer price pressures are abating\, it would strengthen the argument for rate cuts at the September FOMC meeting. \nFor equities\, high PPI is a margin concern for industrial companies\, consumer goods manufacturers\, and retailers who must decide whether to absorb higher costs or pass them on to customers. A sharp deceleration in PPI would be a meaningful positive for corporate earnings forecasts\, particularly for companies in sectors with pricing power constraints. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nAbove 6.5% year-over-year: A further acceleration would confirm that producer price pressures are not abating and signal continued risk of consumer price increases in autumn 2026. Bond yields would likely rise\, rate-cut expectations for September would fall\, and equity sentiment could turn risk-off.\nIn line (approximately 5.0% to 6.5% year-over-year): A reading similar to May and June levels would suggest producer price inflation is high but plateauing. Markets would likely take this as neutral\, with attention shifting to whether base effects begin to pull the annual rate lower in coming months.\nBelow 5.0% year-over-year: A meaningful deceleration would be a positive surprise for markets\, indicating that the worst of the tariff and energy-driven producer price surge may be behind the economy. Bond markets would rally\, equities would broadly benefit\, and rate-cut expectations would increase.\n\nWithin the release\, the services PPI component carries particular Fed relevance. Services producer prices are less affected by tariffs than goods prices and are more directly linked to labour cost trends. If services PPI remains elevated while goods PPI eases\, it signals that labour-market-driven inflation is becoming the primary inflation driver\, a more persistent concern than tariff-driven goods price shocks. \nOutcome (13 August 2026): The July 2026 result of 4.7% year-on-year placed in the below 5.0% year-over-year scenario above\, a positive surprise for markets and the biggest single-month deceleration in the annual rate since January 2026. \nResults: US Producer Price Index July 2026\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that final demand PPI was flat month on month in July 2026 (0.0% MoM)\, undershooting the consensus forecast of +0.2% MoM. On a year-on-year basis\, the headline rate fell to 4.7% from an upwardly revised 5.3% in June 2026\, also below the 4.9% consensus estimate. The result is the lowest year-on-year reading in four months and represents the largest single-month deceleration in the annual rate since January 2026. \nThe softness in the headline was driven primarily by a 3.1% decline in final demand energy prices\, with gasoline falling 5.7%. Final demand goods fell 0.7% month on month overall. Final demand services rose 0.2%\, with portfolio management fees rising and transportation and warehousing costs easing. Core PPI excluding food and energy came in at +0.2% MoM and +4.2% YoY\, in line with expectations. The broader core measure excluding food\, energy\, and trade services rose 0.4% MoM\, signalling some residual stickiness in underlying producer cost pressures outside of energy. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics\, August 13\, 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nEquities rallied on the softer-than-expected PPI print\, which followed a benign CPI reading the previous day (August 12). The S&P 500 rose 0.5 to 0.7%\, reaching a fresh record near 7\,800. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.15% and the Russell 2000 hit a record high\, with small-cap companies benefiting from reduced pressure on floating-rate debt. The 10-year Treasury yield fell approximately 3 to 5 basis points to around 4.64 to 4.68%. The US dollar index was essentially flat near 100. On CME FedWatch\, the probability of a September rate hold rose to approximately 60 to 68%\, up from around 46 to 50% earlier in the week\, as back-to-back soft inflation prints reduced the case for further Fed tightening. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe July 2026 PPI confirms that the spike in producer price inflation seen in the first half of 2026\, driven largely by tariff pass-through and energy cost increases\, is fading. The deceleration from 6.0% to 4.7% year-on-year removes a significant upside risk to the consumer price outlook for autumn 2026. For bond investors\, easing producer prices reduce the risk of a sustained rise in long-term yields. For equity investors\, softening goods price pressures improve the margin outlook for consumer-facing companies and manufacturers. The Federal Reserve now heads into the Jackson Hole symposium (August 27 to 29) with two consecutive soft inflation prints\, giving policymakers more flexibility to signal a potential move toward rate reductions later in 2026 without credibility risk. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nPPI Final Demand (YoY)\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nJune 2025\n+2.3%\nPre-tariff baseline\n\n\nAugust 2025\n+2.6%\nEarly tariff pass-through\n\n\nFull Year 2025\n+3.0%\nAnnual average\n\n\nMarch 2026\n+4.3%\nAcceleration begins\n\n\nApril 2026\n+6.0%\nHighest since Dec 2022\n\n\nMay 2026\n+6.0%\nMaintained at elevated level\n\n\n\nSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics. PPI Final Demand year-over-year percentage change. June and July 2026 readings not yet available at time of writing. \nMarket Positioning\nAhead of the August 13 release\, rate futures will reflect expectations shaped by the July 15 PPI (June data)\, the August 12 CPI (July data)\, and the August 7 non-farm payrolls report. A combination of strong employment\, high CPI\, and high PPI on August 13 would suggest that the Fed holds rates at the September meeting. A combination of weaker employment\, lower CPI\, and decelerating PPI would open the door for a rate cut discussion. The August 13 PPI will be the final major inflation data point before the Jackson Hole symposium on August 27-29\, giving it elevated market significance in a traditionally low-liquidity summer trading period. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report August 2026 – Released August 12\, one day before the PPI\, providing the consumer price context for the August 13 producer price data.\nUS Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) August 2026 – Released August 7\, the labour market data provides essential context for interpreting whether cost pressures are demand-driven or supply-driven.\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 – The August 27-29 gathering of global central bankers will be the next major policy signal after the August 13 PPI\, with the data feeding directly into policy discussions.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nHow does PPI differ from CPI?\nThe PPI measures price changes from the producer’s perspective\, tracking what sellers receive for their goods and services. The CPI measures price changes from the consumer’s perspective\, covering what households pay for a basket of goods and services. PPI is released approximately one day before CPI each month and is often used as a leading indicator of future consumer price trends. \nWhen is the August 2026 PPI report released?\nThe BLS will release the Producer Price Index for July 2026 on Thursday\, August 13\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. The report will be available on the BLS website at bls.gov/ppi immediately following publication. \nWhat causes PPI to rise?\nProducer prices can rise due to higher input costs (raw materials\, energy\, labour)\, supply chain disruptions\, tariffs on imported intermediate goods\, or strong end-user demand that gives producers pricing power. In 2026\, the primary drivers have been tariff-related cost increases on goods producers\, higher energy prices\, and elevated transportation costs. These factors tend to pass through to consumer prices over subsequent months\, though the magnitude and speed of pass-through depends on industry competition and consumer demand sensitivity.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-producer-price-index-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260812T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260812T093000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104554Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104554Z
UID:1272-1786523400-1786527000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US CPI Report August 2026
DESCRIPTION:US CPI Report: +3.4% YoY\, +0.1% MoM; core +2.5% YoY\, +0.2% MoM (in line with consensus) (Wednesday\, August 12\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers July 2026 data. \n\nActual\n+3.4% YoY\, +0.1% MoM; core +2.5% YoY\, +0.2% MoM (in line with consensus)\n\nFull schedule and background: US CPI Report. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US CPI ReportNext US CPI Report →\nThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July 2026 on Wednesday\, August 12\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in July\, matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast across all four metrics. The result continued a downward trend in annual inflation from the 3.8% peak recorded in April 2026\, with energy remaining an elevated but moderating factor in the annual figure. \n\n  At a Glance \n\nRelease date: Wednesday\, August 12\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. ET\nPublishing body: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\nReference month: July 2026\nActual result: +3.4% YoY\, +0.1% MoM; core +2.5% YoY\, +0.2% MoM\nMarket impact: High\n\n\nResults: US CPI Report July 2026\nThe BLS reported that consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) and 3.4% year-on-year in July 2026. Core CPI\, which excludes food and energy\, rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. All four readings matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast exactly. \nThe annual headline rate of 3.4% represents a deceleration from 3.5% in June 2026 and from the 3.8% peak in April 2026\, continuing a gradual cooling trend. The core annual rate of 2.5% is the slowest since March 2021 according to BLS data. Within the components\, shelter was the primary monthly contributor\, rising 0.1% and accounting for roughly two-thirds of the all-items monthly increase. Energy fell 1.5% month-on-month\, though it remains elevated at +14.7% year-on-year\, reflecting the oil price shock linked to geopolitical tensions earlier in 2026. \nSources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index Summary\, August 12\, 2026; CNBC\, August 12\, 2026. \nMarket Reaction\nMarkets responded positively to the in-line print\, though gains faded through the session as the result was largely priced in. The S&P 500 rose 0.26% to close at 7\,748.50\, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.54% to close at 26\,588.49\, aided partly by a concurrent rally in memory chip stocks on AI demand forecasts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed roughly flat. \nTreasury yields were volatile in the immediate aftermath but settled close to unchanged. The 2-year yield edged up approximately 3 basis points to around 4.24%\, while the 10-year yield hovered near 4.70%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened modestly\, declining toward 99.7\, reflecting reduced pressure for aggressive Fed action. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a September rate hike fell to 40.1% from 54.4% the prior week\, pushing the probability of a hold above 50% for the first time since May 2026. \nSources: Motley Fool\, August 12\, 2026; CNBC\, August 12\, 2026; Barchart\, August 12\, 2026. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nThe July print reinforces the disinflationary trend building since the April peak. Annual headline inflation has fallen from 3.8% to 3.4% over three months\, and core inflation at 2.5% is approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target from a more comfortable distance than earlier in the year. The September rate hike that markets had partially priced in is now below a 50% probability\, shifting the expected path of interest rates in a more dovish direction. \nFor borrowers\, this trajectory is encouraging: mortgage rates and other credit costs tend to follow long-term Treasury yields\, which remained stable after the print. For savers in high-yield accounts or money market funds\, rates are likely to remain elevated for now as the Fed moves cautiously\, but the ceiling on rates appears to have passed. Equity markets\, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities\, real estate investment trusts\, and technology\, stand to benefit if the disinflationary trend continues into the next CPI release. \nWhat is the Consumer Price Index?\nThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is the most widely followed measure of inflation in the United States. Published monthly by the BLS\, it tracks changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services covering approximately 93% of the US population. The basket includes categories such as housing\, food\, transport\, energy\, medical care\, apparel\, and recreation\, with housing carrying the largest weighting at around 32%. \nThe BLS collects price data from tens of thousands of retail and service establishments across the country. The resulting index is expressed as the percentage change against the same month one year earlier (the year-over-year or YoY rate) and as the month-over-month (MoM) change from the previous release. Core CPI\, which strips out volatile food and energy components\, is watched closely by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) as a measure of underlying inflation trends. \nCPI is released roughly 12 to 13 days after the reference month ends. The August 2026 release covers price changes in July 2026\, giving markets a timely read on whether inflationary pressures are accelerating\, stabilising\, or retreating. \nUS CPI Release: August 12\, 2026\nThe August 12 release covered July 2026 price data. The July reading came in at 3.4% year-over-year and 0.1% month-on-month\, a deceleration from the April 2026 peak of 3.8% that was driven largely by energy prices rising 17.9% on an annual basis\, with gasoline up 28.4% year-over-year. \nMonth-over-month\, consumer prices rose 0.6% in April and 0.9% in March\, indicating that inflationary momentum had been building. Core CPI\, excluding food and energy\, rose to 2.8% year-over-year in April. The July reading\, one of two CPI prints before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in September 2026\, confirmed that inflationary pressures are easing\, reducing the case for an additional rate rise at that meeting. \nWhy This CPI Release Matters\nConsumer price inflation has become a dominant macroeconomic theme in 2026. After a period of relative calm in late 2025\, inflation accelerated sharply in the early months of 2026. The annual rate reached 3.3% in March and 3.8% in April\, driven by an oil price shock linked to conflict in the Middle East. Gasoline prices rose 28.4% year-over-year in April\, pushing total energy costs up 17.9%\, the steepest annual energy price increase since September 2022. \nFor equities\, elevated inflation raises the cost of capital and reduces the present value of future earnings\, particularly for growth-oriented sectors. For bonds\, higher-than-expected inflation typically pushes yields upward and prices lower. The US dollar tends to strengthen when inflation data comes in hotter than forecast\, reflecting expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Commodities and inflation-linked securities often benefit from persistent price pressures. \nThe FOMC has maintained interest rates at elevated levels in response to the inflation resurgence. The July CPI print\, along with the June report\, shaped the Fed’s thinking heading into the September 2026 meeting. A sustained retreat in inflation would open the door to rate cuts; a continued acceleration would press the Fed to hold or tighten further. \nWhat to Watch For\nBeyond the headline year-over-year figure\, analysts and traders will examine several components closely: \n\nAbove consensus: A reading above the prevailing trend (above approximately 3.5-4.0%) would reinforce the case for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer\, likely strengthening the US dollar\, pushing Treasury yields higher\, and pressuring equity valuations. Energy-sensitive names and rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and real estate would face the most pressure.\nIn line with consensus: A reading broadly matching market expectations would be largely absorbed without a significant market reaction. Attention would shift to the underlying detail: whether shelter costs are moderating\, whether core services inflation is cooling\, and whether energy remains the primary driver.\nBelow consensus: A softer-than-expected print would boost sentiment across equities and bonds by raising the prospect of Fed rate cuts. The US dollar would likely weaken\, while interest-rate-sensitive sectors would rally. A reading below 3.0% would be particularly meaningful given the recent trend.\n\nShelter costs and services inflation deserve particular attention. Shelter (primarily owners’ equivalent rent) is the single largest CPI component. Core services ex-shelter\, often called “supercore\,” is the metric the Fed watches most closely as an indicator of demand-driven inflation. Any meaningful deceleration in this component would be a strong signal that underlying inflation is genuinely cooling. \nUpdate (August 12\, 2026): The in-line scenario landed. July CPI came in at exactly the Dow Jones consensus forecast: headline +3.4% YoY\, +0.1% MoM; core +2.5% YoY\, +0.2% MoM. As anticipated under this scenario\, the report was absorbed without significant market disruption. Shelter remained the primary monthly contributor\, and CME FedWatch September hike probability fell below 50%. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nYoY\nMoM\nCore YoY\n\n\n\n\nJuly 2026 (actual)\n3.4%\n+0.1%\n2.5%\n\n\nJune 2026\n3.5%\n+0.1%\n2.6%\n\n\nApril 2026\n3.8%\n+0.6%\n2.8%\n\n\nMarch 2026\n3.3%\n+0.9%\n2.6%\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n2.4%\n+0.2%\n—\n\n\nJanuary 2026\n2.4%\n—\n—\n\n\nDecember 2025\n2.7%\n—\n—\n\n\n\nSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. October and November 2025 data were not published due to the US government shutdown. MoM and core figures not available for all periods shown. June 2026 data sourced from BLS July 2026 release. \nMarket Positioning\nHeading into the second half of 2026\, markets are calibrating inflation expectations against Federal Reserve communications. Fed funds futures have reflected uncertainty about the path of interest rates\, with traders reluctant to price in cuts while inflation remains elevated above the Fed’s 2% target. Treasury yields have risen over the course of 2026 as successive CPI prints have exceeded expectations\, reflecting a reassessment of how long restrictive monetary policy may remain in place. \nIn equity markets\, value and defensive sectors have generally outperformed growth names in this environment. The US dollar has strengthened against major currencies on the back of higher real yields. Gold\, typically a beneficiary of elevated inflation expectations\, has also performed well as investors seek stores of value amid persistent price pressures. \nRelated Events\n\nUS CPI Report July 2026 – The preceding monthly CPI release\, covering June 2026 price data\, providing essential trend context for the August reading.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting\, for which the August CPI will be a primary input.\nUS Employment Situation (NFP) July 2026 – The labour market report for June 2026\, completing the Fed’s dual-mandate picture alongside the inflation data.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the CPI measure?\nThe CPI measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services\, including housing\, food\, transport\, energy\, and medical care. It is the most widely followed measure of consumer price inflation in the United States\, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. \nWhen was the August 2026 CPI report released?\nThe August 2026 CPI report was released on Wednesday\, August 12\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report covers price changes during July 2026. The actual result was +3.4% year-on-year and +0.1% month-on-month for headline CPI\, with core CPI at +2.5% year-on-year. \nHow does CPI data affect interest rate decisions?\nThe Federal Reserve uses CPI data as a key input for monetary policy. When inflation is running persistently above the Fed’s 2% target\, the central bank typically holds or raises interest rates to cool demand. A sustained decline in CPI towards target would increase the likelihood of rate cuts\, which would affect borrowing costs across the economy including mortgages\, corporate loans\, and credit cards.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-august-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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