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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260914T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260914T093000
DTSTAMP:20260914T142531Z
CREATED:20260825T125237Z
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UID:2165-1789374600-1789378200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Canada CPI September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Canada CPI: Held at 3.0% YoY\, -0.1% MoM (core-trim 1.9%\, core-median 2.0%) (Monday\, September 14\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nActual\nHeld at 3.0% YoY\, -0.1% MoM (core-trim 1.9%\, core-median 2.0%)\n\nFull schedule and background: Canada CPI. \nUpdated September 14\, 2026 \n\nStatistics Canada reported on September 14\, 2026 that Canada’s annual inflation rate held at 3.0% in August\, matching consensus\, while consumer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% on the month against forecasts of a 0.3% rise. \nStatistics Canada publishes the August 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Monday\, September 14\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). The CPI is the country’s main measure of inflation and this release covers price data collected through August 2026. Full schedule and background: Canada CPI. \nWhat is the Consumer Price Index?\nThe Consumer Price Index tracks the average change over time in the prices Canadian households pay for a fixed basket of goods and services\, from groceries and rent to gasoline and haircuts. Statistics Canada divides the basket into eight major groups\, including food\, shelter\, transportation and recreation\, and weights each group according to how much an average household actually spends on it. \nThe headline figure is the year-over-year change in the all-items index\, but the Bank of Canada pays closer attention to two “core” measures\, CPI-trim and CPI-median\, which strip out the most volatile price swings (usually fuel and some food items) to show the underlying trend. These core measures\, sometimes called underlying inflation\, are central to how the Bank of Canada decides whether to raise\, hold or cut its policy interest rate. \nMarkets watch the CPI closely because it feeds directly into interest rate decisions\, wage negotiations\, pension indexing and government benefit adjustments. A CPI print that surprises to the upside or downside can move the Canadian dollar\, bond yields and stock prices within minutes of release. \nWhen is the August CPI released?\nStatistics Canada releases the August 2026 CPI report on Monday\, September 14\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm in London). The data is published in The Daily on the Statistics Canada website\, alongside detailed tables covering provinces\, cities and the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures. Statistics Canada had already flagged this date on its CPI portal ahead of the release\, so there is no uncertainty over timing for this report. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 CPI has not yet been published by major polling organisations such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Forecaster estimates typically firm up in the days immediately before release\, closer to mid-September 2026. \nThe most recent published reading is the July 2026 CPI\, which showed headline inflation at 3.0% year over year\, up from 2.8% in June\, according to Statistics Canada. That was one tick above the 2.9% median forecast from economists polled by Reuters ahead of the report\, according to IndexBox. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures\, CPI-trim and CPI-median\, stood at 1.9% and 2.0% respectively in July. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI\, year over year\n3.0%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCore (average of CPI-trim and CPI-median)\nApproximately 1.95%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus (once a forecast is set)\nA hotter than expected print would likely be read as reducing the chance of a near-term Bank of Canada rate cut\, and could firm up the Canadian dollar\, according to commentary from TD Economics on recent CPI reports.\nPrices are rising faster than expected\, which squeezes household budgets and may keep borrowing costs higher for longer.\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nA result matching expectations would likely be treated as confirmation the Bank of Canada can stay on hold\, with limited market reaction\, in line with recent analyst commentary that “the inflation side is looking stable” cited by CBC News.\nNo real change to the outlook for mortgage rates\, savings rates or the loonie.\n\n\nBelow consensus\nA softer print would likely be read as strengthening the case for a rate cut later in 2026\, potentially weighing on the Canadian dollar.\nInflation pressure is easing\, which could eventually translate into lower borrowing costs\, though not immediately.\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities discussed by analysts\, not predictions of the actual outcome. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nCanadian inflation has been volatile through the middle of 2026. Headline CPI rose to 3.2% in May 2026\, the fastest pace since December 2023\, largely because of a surge in gasoline prices linked to disruption in Middle East energy exports\, according to Trading Economics. It then eased to 2.8% in June as fuel prices cooled\, before climbing back to 3.0% in July as gasoline costs rose again\, according to Statistics Canada. That puts headline inflation at the very top of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% control range. \nDespite the swings in the headline number\, core inflation measures that the Bank of Canada watches most closely\, CPI-trim and CPI-median\, have stayed close to the 2% target through this period. BMO economist Robert Kavcic described the underlying picture as “stable and well-behaved” even with some heat in the July data\, according to CBC News. This August report is the last full CPI print before the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled rate announcement\, so policymakers will be watching whether core inflation holds near target or drifts higher. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and loans: If inflation stays elevated\, the Bank of Canada is less likely to cut its policy rate soon\, which keeps variable mortgage rates and other borrowing costs higher for longer. A cooler than expected reading could revive expectations of a rate cut later in 2026.\nSavings: Higher policy rates generally mean better returns on savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates\, but if real (inflation-adjusted) returns are the concern\, a 3% inflation rate still erodes the purchasing power of cash sitting in low-interest accounts.\nJobs and wages: Persistent inflation above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target can feed into wage negotiations\, as workers push for pay rises to keep pace with the cost of living. This report gives an early read on whether that pressure is building or easing.\nEveryday prices: Gasoline and grocery prices have been the biggest swing factors in recent Canadian CPI reports. Households driving long distances or spending heavily on food will feel these categories most directly.\nInvestments\, pensions and the currency: A surprise in either direction can move the Canadian dollar against the US dollar\, euro and pound within minutes\, and can shift bond yields that underpin pension fund returns. Investors and pensioners with exposure to Canadian bonds or the loonie should expect some short-term volatility around the 8:30 am ET release.\n\nRelated events\n\nThe Bank of Canada’s next scheduled interest rate decision\, which will weigh this CPI print alongside other economic data.\nCanada’s monthly jobs report\, published separately by Statistics Canada\, which feeds into the same labour market picture the Bank of Canada monitors.\nThe United States CPI report\, typically released in the same week\, which can add to or offset currency moves triggered by the Canadian data.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the August 2026 Canada CPI released?\nStatistics Canada publishes the report at 8:30 am ET on Monday\, September 14\, 2026\, which is 1:30 pm in London. \nHow do I read the headline versus core CPI figures?\nThe headline figure is the change in the full basket of goods and services\, while core measures such as CPI-trim and CPI-median strip out volatile items like fuel to show the underlying inflation trend the Bank of Canada relies on. \nHow does this report affect Bank of Canada interest rate decisions?\nThe Bank of Canada uses CPI data\, especially the core measures\, to judge whether inflation is on track to return to its 2% target\, which directly influences whether it holds\, cuts or raises its policy interest rate. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe report is published in The Daily on the Statistics Canada website\, along with detailed data tables by province and city. \nWhen is the next Canada CPI report after this one?\nStatistics Canada typically releases CPI data roughly one month later\, covering September 2026\, with the exact date confirmed on its CPI release schedule closer to the time. \nResults: Canada CPI\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI\, year over year\n3.0%\n3.0%\n3.0% (July 2026)\n\n\nHeadline CPI\, month over month\n+0.3%\n-0.1%\n+0.5% (July 2026)\n\n\nCPI-trim (core)\nBroadly unchanged\n1.9%\n1.9% (July 2026)\n\n\nCPI-median (core)\nBroadly unchanged\n2.0%\n2.0% (July 2026)\n\n\n\nStatistics Canada reported that annual inflation held at 3.0% in August 2026\, matching both the July reading and the median forecast from economists polled by LSEG Data & Analytics\, according to CBC News. On a monthly basis\, however\, consumer prices fell 0.1%\, a softer outcome than the 0.3% rise economists had pencilled in\, according to FXStreet. \nThe agency said a slowdown in the pace of rising gasoline prices\, up 22.8% year over year versus 25.7% in July\, was offset by higher rent and travel tour costs\, according to BNN Bloomberg. Grocery prices rose 2.8% year over year\, the first time in more than two years that food inflation ran slower than the headline rate\, while excluding gasoline\, consumer prices rose 2.4%. This landed close to the “in line with consensus” scenario flagged in the preview: the Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures\, CPI-trim and CPI-median\, were unchanged from July at 1.9% and 2.0% respectively\, both still hovering near the 2% inflation target. \nThe result arrives less than two weeks after the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2\, 2026\, its seventh consecutive hold\, as it weighs volatile global energy prices and the drag from US tariffs on the Canadian economy. \nMarket Reaction\nBecause the headline figure matched consensus and the core measures were unchanged\, the reaction across Canadian assets was contained rather than dramatic. Short-term Government of Canada bond yields showed little sustained movement\, consistent with a report that broadly confirmed the Bank of Canada’s existing view that underlying inflation is stable near target\, even as headline inflation sits at the top of the central bank’s 1% to 3% control range. \nThe unexpected monthly decline of 0.1%\, against expectations of a 0.3% increase\, gave a mildly softer edge to the release that some traders may read as marginally reducing the odds of any near-term rate rise\, though it did not materially shift expectations for the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled decision. The Canadian dollar\, which according to FXStreet had already been losing momentum against the US dollar in the run-up to the release\, showed no sharp directional break either way in the immediate aftermath\, consistent with a data point that landed close to what forecasters had priced in. \nWhat this means for your money now\nWith headline inflation unchanged at 3.0% and core measures steady near 2%\, the outlook for interest rates\, mortgages and savings is largely unchanged from before this release. Variable mortgage holders and savers should not expect this report alone to shift the Bank of Canada’s stance at its next meeting\, though households will still feel the effects of a 3% inflation rate eroding the purchasing power of wages and cash savings\, particularly through higher rent\, travel and shelter costs highlighted in the August data.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/canada-cpi-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260915T020000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260915T030000
DTSTAMP:20260915T123133Z
CREATED:20260825T125831Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260915T123133Z
UID:2167-1789437600-1789441200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:UK Labour Market Report September 2026
DESCRIPTION:UK Labour Market Report: Unemployment 4.9% (3m to July 2026)\, vs 5.0% consensus; earnings ex-bonus +3.5%\, incl bonus +3.9% (Tuesday\, September 15\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET\, 7:00 am London)). \n\nActual\nUnemployment 4.9% (3m to July 2026)\, vs 5.0% consensus; earnings ex-bonus +3.5%\, incl bonus +3.9%\n\nFull schedule and background: UK Labour Market Report. \nUpdated September 15\, 2026 \n\nThe Office for None sets to State that the Federal Reserve’s decision on September 16\, 2026 and the Bank of England’s own decision the following day. GBP/USD was already trading near two-month lows around 1.3492 heading into the data\, having weakened as US Treasury yields rose\, according to  \nA consensus forecast for the September 15\, 2026 UK labour market report has not yet been published by Reuters or Bloomberg polls. The most recent ONS release\, covering the three months to June 2026\, put the unemployment rate at 4.9%\, up 0.2 percentage points on the year but down 0.1 percentage points on the quarter\, according to the ONS labour market overview for August 2026. Analysts expect the rate to remain close to that level. A reading of 5.1% or higher\, or a fall back towards 4.6% to 4.7%\, alongside any sharp change in wage growth\, would count as a genuine surprise for markets watching Bank of England policy. \nThe UK Labour Market Report for September 2026 is due for release on Tuesday\, September 15\, 2026 at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET). It is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and covers the rolling three-month period from May to July 2026 for its headline employment\, unemployment and earnings figures\, alongside claimant count and payrolled employee estimates for August 2026. Full schedule and background: UK Labour Market Report. \nWhat is the UK Labour Market Report?\nThe Labour Market Report is the ONS’s monthly overview of how many people in the UK are working\, looking for work\, or neither. Its headline figures come mainly from the Labour Force Survey (LFS)\, a household survey that asks a sample of people about their work status\, which is then used to estimate the employment rate\, the unemployment rate and the economic inactivity rate for the whole population. \nAlongside the survey data\, the report includes faster\, more timely measures: the claimant count (people receiving unemployment-related benefits) and payrolled employees drawn from HM Revenue and Customs Real Time Information (RTI) tax data. It also reports average weekly earnings\, split into regular pay (excluding bonuses) and total pay (including bonuses)\, which is one of the clearest signals of wage pressure in the economy. \nMarkets watch this release closely because the Bank of England uses labour market slack and wage growth as key inputs when setting interest rates. A tight jobs market with strong pay growth tends to support the case for higher borrowing costs\, while rising unemployment and slowing pay growth point the other way. The report also matters beyond the UK: sterling\, gilt yields and UK equities can all move on the release\, with knock-on effects for European and Asian markets that trade UK assets or watch the Bank of England as a signal for other central banks. \nWhen is the September labour market report released?\nThe ONS will publish the report on September 15\, 2026 at 7:00am London time\, which is 2:00am ET. It appears on the ONS labour market overview page\, alongside supporting datasets such as the summary of labour market statistics and the regional labour market breakdown. The ONS has already confirmed this date and time on its release calendar\, so there is no estimation involved for this instalment. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of now\, a consensus forecast for the September 2026 release has not yet been published. Surveys of economists by newswires such as Reuters typically appear only in the days immediately before the release\, once August claimant count and payrolled employee data start to firm up expectations. The most recent confirmed reading\, from the ONS bulletin published on August 18\, 2026\, showed the unemployment rate at 4.9% in the three months to June 2026\, up 0.2 percentage points on the year but down 0.1 percentage points on the previous quarter\, according to the ONS Labour Market Overview\, UK: August 2026. Regular pay growth (excluding bonuses) was 3.5% and total pay growth (including bonuses) was 4.1% over the same period\, per the same release. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (April to June 2026)\nConsensus for May to July 2026\n\n\n\n\nUnemployment rate\n4.9%\nNot yet published\n\n\nEmployment rate\nNot fully confirmed at time of writing\nNot yet published\n\n\nRegular pay growth (ex. bonuses)\n3.5%\nNot yet published\n\n\nClaimant count (most recent month)\n1.665 million (July 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nUnemployment rate rises above the prior 4.9% and pay growth cools further\nTraders may price in a higher chance of a Bank of England rate cut\, pushing sterling lower against the dollar and euro\nA weaker jobs market and slower wage growth would suggest the economy is cooling\, which could eventually feed through to lower mortgage rates\n\n\nUnemployment rate holds near 4.9% and pay growth is broadly unchanged\nLimited market reaction\, as this would confirm the recent flat trend the Bank of England has already priced in\nLittle immediate change for borrowers or savers\, though a genuinely flat labour market for a long period tends to keep interest rate expectations steady\n\n\nUnemployment rate falls and pay growth accelerates\nGilt yields could rise and sterling could firm\, as markets price out near-term rate cuts\nA tighter jobs market with stronger pay growth would raise the risk that inflation stays higher for longer\, which argues for interest rates staying elevated\n\n\n\nThese are illustrative reactions drawn from how analysts have described the mechanics of the release\, not predictions of what will happen. Reuters and Bloomberg poll a range of economists ahead of most major UK data releases\, and their published median forecast\, once available\, is the most reliable single number to compare the actual result against. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe Bank of England has spent much of 2026 weighing a labour market that has been gradually loosening against inflation that has remained above its 2% target for an extended period. The unemployment rate has drifted higher over the past year\, from 4.5% a year earlier to 4.9% in the most recent confirmed quarter\, according to data compiled in the Wikipedia summary of UK unemployment trends and the ONS bulletins underpinning it. At the same time\, economic inactivity\, the share of working-age people neither working nor looking for work\, has been broadly flat at close to 20.9%\, and youth unemployment has been highlighted by groups such as the Learning and Work Institute as a particular area of concern. \nWage growth has been the other side of the story. Regular pay growth of 3.5% is still running ahead of the Bank’s 2% inflation target\, but it has been slowing gradually\, and real pay\, adjusted for inflation\, has been rising only modestly for most workers according to commentary reported by FE News. The September release\, covering May to July 2026\, will show whether that gradual cooling in both unemployment and pay growth is continuing\, stalling or reversing\, which matters directly for the timing of any further Bank of England interest rate moves. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing: A weaker labour market print tends to increase the chance of a Bank of England rate cut\, which can eventually lower fixed mortgage rates as lenders reprice\, though tracker and variable rate mortgages respond most directly to any actual change in the Bank Rate.\nSavings: If markets price in rate cuts\, banks and building societies often start trimming savings account rates in advance\, so savers relying on easy access or fixed-term deposits may see slightly lower returns on offer in the weeks that follow.\nJobs and wages: A rising unemployment rate or falling vacancies can mean it takes longer to find a new job or negotiate a pay rise\, particularly for younger workers\, where unemployment has already reached its highest level in over a decade according to the Learning and Work Institute.\nPrices and living standards: Wage growth still running above inflation is good news for take-home pay in real terms\, but if pay growth slows sharply while prices stay high\, household budgets can feel tighter even without a formal recession.\nInvestments\, pensions and the pound: UK gilt yields and the pound often move on this data because it feeds directly into Bank of England rate expectations. A softer jobs market can pull sterling lower against the dollar and euro\, which affects the cost of imports and the value of overseas holidays\, while pension funds holding UK bonds are sensitive to shifts in expected interest rates.\n\nRelated events\n\nThe next Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decision\, which will weigh this labour market data alongside inflation figures.\nThe UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) release\, published separately by the ONS\, which is read alongside wage growth to judge real pay trends.\nThe next monthly UK Labour Market Report\, due in October 2026\, covering the three months to August 2026.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the UK Labour Market Report released?\nThe ONS publishes the report at 7:00am London time on September 15\, 2026\, which is 2:00am ET. \nHow should I read the headline numbers?\nFocus on the direction of the unemployment rate\, the employment rate and regular pay growth compared with the prior quarter\, rather than any single month\, since the underlying survey data can be volatile and subject to revision. \nHow does this release affect UK interest rates?\nThe Bank of England uses labour market slack and wage growth as key evidence when deciding whether to raise\, hold or cut the Bank Rate\, so a notably stronger or weaker report can shift market expectations for the next decision. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe report is published on the ONS Labour Market Overview page\, alongside supporting datasets and regional breakdowns. \nWhen is the next UK Labour Market Report due?\nThe following release is scheduled for October 2026\, covering the three months to August 2026\, with the exact date confirmed on the ONS release calendar closer to the time. \nResults: UK Labour Market Report\, September 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nUnemployment rate (three months to July 2026)\n5.0%\n4.9%\n4.9% (three months to June 2026)\n\n\nAverage earnings\, excluding bonuses (3M YoY)\n3.5%\n3.5%\n3.5%\n\n\nAverage earnings\, including bonuses (3M YoY)\nNot separately published\n3.9%\n4.2% (revised from 4.1%)\n\n\nClaimant count change (August 2026)\n+8\,300\n+27\,800\n-11\,800 (July\, revised)\n\n\nEmployment change (three months to July 2026)\nNot separately published\n+67\,000\n+83\,000 (three months to June 2026)\n\n\n\nThe ONS reported that the UK unemployment rate held at 4.9% in the three months to July 2026\, coming in below the 5.0% consensus forecast from economists surveyed ahead of the release\, according to FXStreet. That matched the prior reading and extended a run in which the rate has stayed close to 4.9% for several months\, even as it remains well above the 4.5% level recorded a year earlier. \nWage growth was mixed. Regular pay\, which excludes bonuses\, rose 3.5% on a three-month year-on-year basis\, exactly in line with both the consensus forecast and the previous reading\, showing little further slowing in the underlying pace of pay growth. Pay including bonuses eased to 3.9% from a downwardly revised 4.2%\, as the earlier boost from bonus payments faded. The claimant count\, which measures people receiving unemployment-related benefits\, rose by 27\,800 in August 2026\, more than three times the 8\,300 increase economists had expected\, while the July figure was revised to a decrease of 11\,800. \nTaken together\, the report landed closest to the scenario in the preview in which the unemployment rate holds near its prior level and pay growth stays broadly unchanged\, rather than a sharp deterioration or a tightening of the jobs market. The larger-than-expected rise in claimant count\, alongside a softer employment change of 67\,000 versus 83\,000 in the previous quarter\, pointed to some cooling beneath the surface of an otherwise steady headline unemployment rate. \nMarket Reaction\nSterling’s reaction to the release was muted and difficult to separate from broader dollar strength in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s decision on September 16\, 2026 and the Bank of England’s own decision the following day. GBP/USD was already trading near two-month lows around 1.3492 heading into the data\, having weakened as US Treasury yields rose\, according to FXStreet. \nUK gilt yields showed little immediate move on the release itself\, with traders largely holding position ahead of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting on September 17\, 2026. Economists including ING’s James Smith said the data supported the case for the Bank to hold rates rather than shift to a more hawkish stance\, noting that wage growth remained close to a level consistent with the 2% inflation target\, according to Investing.com. \nMarket pricing for the Bank of England’s near-term rate path was little changed after the release\, with attention shifting quickly to Thursday’s decision and to the UK inflation data due the same week\, both of which are seen as more likely to move gilt yields and sterling meaningfully than this jobs report alone. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook for borrowers and savers is largely unchanged by this release. With the unemployment rate steady and pay growth close to forecast\, there is no fresh signal pushing the Bank of England towards an imminent rate cut or a further increase\, so mortgage and savings rates are more likely to be driven by Thursday’s Bank of England decision and the next UK inflation print than by this jobs data on its own. Anyone with a tracker mortgage or an easy-access savings account should watch the Bank of England statement due on September 17\, 2026 for the clearer signal.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/uk-labour-market-report-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T020000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T030000
DTSTAMP:20260916T123143Z
CREATED:20260825T130401Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260916T123143Z
UID:2169-1789524000-1789527600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:UK CPI Inflation September 2026
DESCRIPTION:UK CPI Inflation: 3.1% YoY headline (up from 2.9%)\, core 2.6% YoY (unchanged)\, CPIH 3.3% YoY (Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET\, 7:00 am London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\na consensus forecast has not yet been published for the August 2026 data\nActual\n3.1% YoY headline (up from 2.9%)\, core 2.6% YoY (unchanged)\, CPIH 3.3% YoY\n\nFull schedule and background: UK CPI Inflation. \nUpdated September 16\, 2026 \n\nUK headline CPI inflation accelerated to 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026\, matching the consensus forecast and up from 2.9% in July\, the Office for National Statistics reported on September 16\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 CPI reading has not yet been published ahead of the September 16\, 2026 release. The prior reading\, for July 2026\, showed headline inflation at 2.9%\, up from 2.6% in June\, matching the market forecast at the time and driven largely by higher household energy costs following a rise in Ofgem’s price cap\, according to Trading Economics. The Bank of England’s August projections pointed to inflation peaking near 3.2% in the final quarter of 2026\, so a surprise would be a reading that pushes materially above or below that path\, altering expectations for when the Bank might next move interest rates. \nThe Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August 2026 on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time\, 2:00 am ET). The release is the single most important UK inflation reading of the month and lands one day before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is next scheduled to meet. Full background and the release schedule are on the UK CPI Inflation hub. \nWhat is the UK CPI report?\nThe Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices paid by UK households for a fixed basket of goods and services\, from groceries and fuel to rent\, clothing and haircuts. The ONS collects tens of thousands of prices each month from shops\, websites and service providers\, weights them by how much a typical household spends on each category\, and calculates how much that basket has risen or fallen compared with the same month a year earlier (the “12-month rate”\, commonly called the annual inflation rate). \nAlongside headline CPI\, the ONS publishes core CPI\, which strips out the most volatile items\, energy\, food\, alcohol and tobacco\, to show the underlying trend in prices. It also breaks the data into goods inflation and services inflation. The Bank of England watches services inflation particularly closely because it tends to move with domestic wage growth and is harder to shift with interest rates than volatile energy or food prices. \nMarkets watch CPI because it is the main gauge the Bank of England uses to judge whether interest rates need to rise\, fall or hold steady. A hotter than expected reading tends to push up UK gilt yields and the pound\, on the view that rates will stay higher for longer\, while a cooler reading can do the opposite. \nWhen is the August 2026 CPI report released?\nThe ONS will publish the Consumer price inflation\, UK: August 2026 bulletin on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time\, which is 2:00 am ET). The bulletin is released on the ONS website and covers price changes recorded during August 2026. The ONS normally issues CPI data around the middle of each month for the previous month\, and no change to this pattern has been flagged for the August release. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of the time of writing\, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 CPI report has not yet been published. City economists and data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically publish their median forecasts in the days immediately before a release\, once August’s energy price moves and other inputs are clearer. Check back closer to September 16\, 2026 for an updated forecast. \nThe most recent published reading is for July 2026. Headline CPI rose to 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026\, up from 2.6% in June\, according to the ONS. That increase was the first rise in the annual rate since March 2026 and was driven largely by a jump in gas and electricity prices following an Ofgem price cap increase on July 1. Core CPI\, which excludes energy\, food\, alcohol and tobacco\, held at 2.6% in July\, unchanged from June\, while services inflation eased slightly to 3.4% from 3.6%. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI (annual)\n2.9%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCore CPI (annual)\n2.6%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nRecent UK CPI readings\n\n\n\nMonth\nHeadline CPI (annual)\nCore CPI (annual)\n\n\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n3.0%\n3.2%\n\n\nMarch 2026\n3.3%\n3.1%\n\n\nApril 2026\n2.8%\n2.5%\n\n\nMay 2026\n2.8%\n2.6%\n\n\nJune 2026\n2.6%\n2.6%\n\n\nJuly 2026\n2.9%\n2.6%\n\n\n\nSource: ONS Consumer price inflation bulletins\, February to July 2026. \nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nGilt yields and the pound could rise as traders price a longer wait for interest rate cuts\, or even a renewed chance of a rate rise\nPrices are climbing faster than expected\, which squeezes household budgets and makes the Bank of England more cautious about cutting borrowing costs\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nA limited market reaction is likely\, since the number would simply confirm what investors already expect\nInflation is behaving broadly as forecast\, so mortgage rates and savings rates are unlikely to move sharply on the data alone\n\n\nBelow consensus\nGilt yields and the pound could fall as markets bring forward expectations for interest rate cuts\nPrice pressure is easing faster than expected\, which could eventually feed through to cheaper borrowing\, though not immediately\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities based on how markets have historically reacted to inflation surprises\, not predictions of what will happen on September 16\, 2026. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nUK inflation has been drifting away from the Bank of England’s 2% target rather than towards it. After falling to a 15-month low of 2.6% in June 2026\, headline CPI rose to 2.9% in July\, and the Bank has projected inflation could peak near 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026\, according to commentary reported by Babypips. A second increase to the Ofgem household energy price cap is expected in October 2026\, which could add further upward pressure to the readings that follow the August data. \nThe MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% at its July 30\, 2026 meeting\, but the vote was split\, with three of the nine members pushing for an immediate rise to 4.0% because of concerns that higher energy costs could spread into wider prices\, according to the same reporting. The committee’s next scheduled decision falls on September 17\, 2026\, the day after this CPI release\, so the August print will be one of the last major data points policymakers see before that vote. HM Treasury’s August 2026 forecast round\, cited by the Building Cost Information Service\, pencilled in CPI inflation averaging 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 before easing back towards target through 2027. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nMortgages and borrowing: If inflation surprises to the upside\, lenders may hold fixed mortgage rates higher for longer\, since money markets would price a slower path of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. A softer print could feed through to slightly cheaper new fixed-rate deals over time\, though rarely overnight. \nSavings: Higher than expected inflation erodes the real value of cash sitting in savings accounts unless the interest rate paid keeps pace. Savers comparing accounts should check whether their rate beats the latest CPI figure\, not just the interest rate itself. \nJobs and wages: The Bank of England watches whether pay growth is running ahead of or behind inflation. If prices rise faster than wages\, household spending power falls even if pay packets are growing in cash terms. \nPrices in everyday life: The report explains why a weekly shop\, energy bill or bus fare feels more or less expensive than a year ago. Energy costs have been the largest single driver of the recent increase in UK inflation. \nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: UK gilts\, the FTSE 100 and the pound can all move on the data\, with knock-on effects for pension funds holding UK bonds. A stronger or weaker pound also changes the cost of imports for UK shoppers and affects how far sterling stretches for anyone travelling to the eurozone or the United States. Investors in Europe and Asia watch UK inflation partly because it shapes expectations for other central banks navigating similar energy-driven price pressures. \nRelated events\n\nBank of England MPC interest rate decision\, scheduled for September 17\, 2026\, the day after this CPI release.\nUK labour market and average earnings statistics\, published monthly by the ONS alongside CPI as part of the same data cycle.\nUS CPI report\, published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics\, which shapes the global inflation backdrop alongside the UK figures.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the August 2026 UK CPI report released?\nThe ONS publishes the report at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time) on September 16\, 2026\, which is 2:00 am ET. \nHow should I read the headline CPI figure?\nThe headline figure shows how much prices for a typical household basket have risen over the past 12 months. A higher number means the cost of living is rising faster; a lower number means it is rising more slowly\, not that prices are falling outright unless the figure turns negative. \nHow does the CPI report affect UK interest rates?\nThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses CPI data as one of its main inputs when deciding whether to raise\, cut or hold Bank Rate\, currently held at 3.75% as of the July 30\, 2026 decision. A CPI reading that runs hotter than the Bank expects can reduce the likelihood of a near-term rate cut. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe bulletin is published on the ONS release calendar and in the Consumer price inflation series on the ONS website. \nWhen is the next UK CPI report after this one?\nThe ONS publishes CPI data monthly\, so the September 2026 report covering that month’s prices is expected in mid-October 2026\, following the usual publication pattern. \nResults: UK CPI Inflation\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI (annual)\n3.1%\n3.1%\n2.9% (July 2026)\n\n\nCore CPI (annual)\nNot separately forecast\n2.6%\n2.6% (July 2026)\n\n\nCPIH (annual)\nNot separately forecast\n3.3%\n3.1% (July 2026)\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI rose to 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026\, up from 2.9% in July and the highest reading since March 2026\, according to the ONS bulletin. The result matched the median forecast in a Reuters poll\, so it landed on the “in line with consensus” scenario set out in the preview above rather than surprising in either direction. On a monthly basis\, CPI rose 0.5% in August\, compared with a 0.3% rise in August 2025. \nThe increase was driven mainly by transport costs\, with motor fuel prices climbing sharply\, Reuters reported\, citing the ONS. Core CPI\, which strips out energy\, food\, alcohol and tobacco\, held steady at 2.6% for a second straight month\, offering the Bank of England some reassurance that the pickup in headline inflation was concentrated in volatile energy-linked costs rather than broadening across the economy. CPI goods inflation rose from 2.2% to 2.7% while services inflation was unchanged at 3.4%\, the ONS said. \nThis was the first CPI reading above 3% since March 2026\, arriving one day ahead of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decision on September 17\, 2026\, making it one of the last significant data points policymakers saw before that vote. \nMarket Reaction\nThe 10-year gilt yield eased slightly to around 5.38%\, while the more policy-sensitive two-year gilt yield moved on updated expectations for the following day’s Bank of England decision\, according to the Irish Times. Because the print matched the consensus forecast\, the immediate market reaction was contained relative to what a genuine surprise would have produced\, though the acceleration to a five-month high kept alive market chatter about a possible Bank Rate increase rather than a cut at the MPC’s September 17 meeting. \nSterling traders and eurozone and Asian observers watching UK rate expectations noted that Britain’s economy grew faster than any other G7 economy in the first half of 2026\, a backdrop that Reuters said could add to inflation pressure and reinforce the case for the Bank to stay cautious rather than ease policy. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe in-line reading leaves the near-term outlook largely unchanged from the pre-release picture: mortgage lenders are unlikely to move fixed rates sharply on this data alone\, and savers should still compare their account rate against the 3.1% headline figure to judge whether their cash is losing real value. Anyone with a Bank of England decision-sensitive mortgage or savings product should watch the September 17\, 2026 MPC announcement\, released the following day\, for the more consequential signal on where borrowing costs go next.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/uk-cpi-inflation-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T093000
DTSTAMP:20260916T162252Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260916T162252Z
UID:1318-1789547400-1789551000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Retail Sales September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE): +1.2% MoM (control group +1.4%)\, vs 0.8% consensus (Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\na consensus forecast has not yet been published for the August 2026 report\nActual\n+1.2% MoM (control group +1.4%)\, vs 0.8% consensus\n\nFull schedule and background: US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE). \nUpdated September 16\, 2026 \n\nUS retail sales rose 1.2% month-on-month in August 2026\, comfortably beating the 0.8% gain forecast by economists polled by Reuters\, according to data published by the US Census Bureau on September 16\, 2026. \nEconomists have not yet finalised a consensus forecast for the August 2026 retail sales report\, though early estimates are likely to reflect on July’s surprise 0.6% monthly decline\, reported by the US Census Bureau\, which missed expectations of a 0.1% rise\, according to Trading Economics. A repeat of July’s weakness\, or a downward revision to control group sales\, would be read as a surprise pointing to a softening consumer\, while a rebound above 0.3% would ease concerns that spending is losing momentum heading into the autumn. \n← Previous US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE)Next US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) →\nThe US Census Bureau will publish the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report for August 2026 on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. The release will provide the first official estimate of consumer spending at retail establishments across the United States for the August 2026 reference month. \nAt a Glance\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nWednesday\, September 16\, 2026\n\n\nRelease Time\n8:30 AM ET\n\n\nPublished By\nUS Census Bureau\n\n\nReference Month\nAugust 2026\n\n\nPrior Reading (April 2026)\n+0.5% MoM ($757.1bn)\n\n\nMarket Impact\nHigh\n\n\n\nWhat Is the US Retail Sales Report?\nThe Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services\, commonly called the retail sales report\, is the US Census Bureau’s early estimate of total receipts at stores selling merchandise and at food services establishments. It covers more than 5\,000 firms selected to represent approximately 3 million retail establishments across the country. The advance release comes approximately two weeks after the reference month ends\, making it one of the most timely measures of consumer spending available to economists and policymakers. \nThe report is published monthly and covers total retail sales\, sales excluding motor vehicles (which are volatile month to month)\, and sales excluding motor vehicles and petrol. The “control group” measure\, which strips out vehicles\, petrol\, building materials\, and food services\, feeds directly into the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculation of personal consumption expenditures (PCE)\, a key input to GDP. For this reason\, the retail sales control group figure often receives as much attention as the headline number. \nConsumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP\, so retail sales data carries outsized weight in economic assessments. A sustained run of strong readings supports the case for a resilient economy and limits the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) scope to cut rates. Weak readings\, by contrast\, can raise recession concerns and shift rate expectations decisively lower. \nUS Retail Sales Release: September 16\, 2026\nThe September 16 release will deliver the first look at retail spending in August 2026. The most recent available data shows April 2026 retail sales at $757.1 billion (USD)\, an increase of 0.5% from March\, itself up 1.6% from February. Year-on-year\, April spending rose 4.9%\, reflecting still-healthy consumer demand despite tariff-driven price pressures. E-commerce sales continue to grow at a faster pace than in-store purchases\, and the grocery sector has absorbed significant food price inflation that has lifted headline dollar values without necessarily indicating volume growth. \nNo formal market consensus forecast for August 2026 retail sales is yet available\, given that the release remains approximately three months away. As consensus estimates from Reuters\, Bloomberg\, and other polling organisations become available in the weeks before the September 16 release\, they will reflect summer spending patterns\, back-to-school purchasing\, and any shifts in petrol prices. The US Retail Sales August 2026 release on August 14 will offer a more immediate benchmark and is likely to shape expectations for the subsequent September reading. \nWhy This Retail Sales Release Matters\nThe September 16 data will arrive just two days before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day meeting scheduled to conclude on September 17 (with the rate decision released on September 16 separately via the FOMC Rate Decision September 2026). This proximity makes the September retail sales release particularly sensitive: a strong reading could reinforce the case for steady rates\, while a soft reading might tip sentiment toward a cut. \nThe report will also arrive in the context of an economy navigating a complex environment. Tariff-related price increases\, particularly on goods imported from major trading partners\, have shifted some consumer behaviour toward domestic alternatives and reduced discretionary spending in certain categories. At the same time\, a still-solid labour market has kept incomes supported\, providing purchasing power even as real wages face pressure from elevated goods inflation. The interaction of these forces will be visible in the August spending data. \nFor equity markets\, retail sales data moves shares of consumer-facing companies most directly: large retailers\, restaurant chains\, and e-commerce platforms. A strong reading could lift the consumer discretionary sector\, while a disappointing figure tends to weigh on shares of companies dependent on household spending confidence. The bond market will also react\, with strong retail data typically pushing Treasury yields higher as investors reduce expectations for rate cuts. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nAbove consensus: A reading above the market forecast would signal that US consumers remain resilient into the late summer months\, supporting the case for the Fed to hold rates steady or extend any pause in cutting. Consumer discretionary equities are likely to react positively\, and the US dollar could strengthen against major peers.\nIn line with consensus: A broadly as-expected reading would confirm stable spending patterns and be unlikely to move markets materially. The focus would shift quickly to the retail sales control group for signals about Q3 GDP momentum.\nBelow consensus: A weaker-than-expected reading\, particularly if also accompanied by downward revisions to prior months\, would raise concern about the consumer’s ability to sustain spending in a high-tariff\, high-cost environment. Markets may price in additional Fed easing\, pushing Treasury yields lower and pressuring the US dollar.\n\nBeyond the headline\, watch for the control group measure\, the exclusion of petrol from total sales (to assess underlying demand stripped of energy price effects)\, and any revisions to July 2026 data that may alter the sequential momentum narrative. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nMonth\nMoM Change\nYoY Change\n\n\n\n\nFebruary 2026\n–\n–\n\n\nMarch 2026\n+1.6%\n–\n\n\nApril 2026\n+0.5%\n+4.9%\n\n\nMay 2026\nTBC\nTBC\n\n\nJune 2026\nTBC (released July 17)\n–\n\n\nAugust 2026\nTBC (released September 16)\n–\n\n\n\nSource: US Census Bureau. Monthly retail and food services data\, seasonally adjusted. Complete monthly series for 2025-2026 will be updated as Census publishes each advance release. \nMarket Positioning\nIn the weeks before the September 16 release\, markets will be closely monitoring the US Retail Sales August 2026 release on August 14 as a proxy for the trend. If August data is strong\, analysts will revise their September forecasts upward. If August surprises to the downside\, the September expectation bar will be lowered accordingly. \nConsumer confidence surveys\, credit card spending data from payment processors\, and quarterly earnings guidance from major retailers will all inform the market’s prior for September. Walmart’s Q2 FY2027 earnings (due August 20) and other major retail corporate reports through August will give investors a real-time sense of spending trends ahead of the Census Bureau’s official release. \nRelated Events\n\nUS Retail Sales August 2026 – Released August 14\, the August report will set the trajectory for September spending expectations.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Fed’s September meeting will incorporate August and September spending data as part of its assessment of economic conditions.\nUS CPI Report September 2026 – The September 11 CPI release will accompany the retail sales report as a joint read on consumer conditions in August.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the US retail sales report measure?\nThe Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services measures total receipts at retail establishments and food services businesses across the United States. It covers over 3 million retail outlets\, sampled through approximately 5\,000 firms. The report provides the earliest read on consumer spending for the reference month and is used to estimate personal consumption in GDP calculations. \nWhen is the US Retail Sales report for August 2026 released?\nThe US Census Bureau will release the Advance Monthly Retail Sales report for August 2026 on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 8:30 AM ET. The report is available on the Census Bureau website at census.gov/retail immediately following release. \nWhy do markets react so strongly to retail sales data?\nConsumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of US GDP. Retail sales data is the most timely monthly measure of that spending\, arriving just two weeks after the reference month ends. Because it directly signals whether consumers are confident and have purchasing power\, it shapes expectations for economic growth\, corporate earnings\, and Federal Reserve policy simultaneously. \nResults: US Retail Sales\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline retail sales\, MoM\n+0.8%\n+1.2%\n-0.5% (revised)\n\n\nControl group (ex-autos\, petrol\, building materials\, food services)\nNot separately polled\n+1.4%\n-0.4% (revised)\n\n\n\nUS retail sales rose 1.2% month-on-month in August 2026\, well ahead of the 0.8% gain forecast by economists polled by Reuters\, according to data published by the US Census Bureau on September 16\, 2026. It was the strongest monthly advance in five months and followed a downwardly revised 0.5% decline in July\, itself the first monthly drop in nine months\, according to Traders Agency\, citing Reuters. \nThe control group measure\, which strips out autos\, petrol\, building materials and food services and feeds directly into the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s personal consumption expenditures calculation\, jumped 1.4% after an unrevised 0.4% decline in July. That reading points to genuine strength in underlying household demand rather than simply a rebound in volatile categories. This is the “above consensus” scenario flagged in the preview: a reading well above forecast\, reinforcing the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady rather than cut\, and supportive for consumer-facing equities. \nPart of the headline strength reflected higher petrol prices rather than pure volume growth: sales at petrol stations jumped 3.1% in August as conflict in the Middle East pushed pump prices higher\, according to CNN Business. Even stripping out autos and petrol\, however\, sales were still up a robust 1.1%\, indicating the strength was broad rather than concentrated in energy-related spending. \nMarket Reaction\nThe release landed on the same day as the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate decision\, which complicates a clean read on the market’s response to the data alone. Treasury yields were already elevated into the report\, with the broader move in yields this year driven mainly by inflation concerns and a hawkish tone from Fed officials at the August Jackson Hole symposium\, according to CNN Business. Equity indices had fallen in six of the seven trading sessions before the release\, a decline CNN attributed largely to nerves around the Fed meeting and rising oil prices rather than the retail sales print itself. \nA retail sales beat of this size\, on past form\, tends to reduce near-term expectations for rate cuts by reinforcing the picture of a resilient consumer\, and to support the dollar and consumer discretionary shares. Given the coincidence with the FOMC decision the same afternoon\, any immediate market moves attributable specifically to the retail sales data were largely absorbed into the broader reaction to the Fed’s announcement. \nWhat this means for your money now\nA stronger-than-expected retail sales report\, on its own\, tends to argue against near-term interest rate cuts\, which would keep mortgage rates and other borrowing costs higher for longer and support savings account yields. Higher petrol prices embedded in the August figure also mean some of the reported spending growth reflects paying more at the pump rather than buying more\, a distinction worth remembering when comparing household budgets to the headline number. \nBecause the report arrived alongside the Fed’s own rate decision\, the more direct read-through for mortgages\, savings and currency markets comes from that decision itself rather than the retail sales figure in isolation.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-retail-sales-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T140000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260916T150000
DTSTAMP:20260916T182532Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260916T182532Z
UID:1224-1789567200-1789570800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:FOMC Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:FOMC Rate Decision: Raised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% (first hike in three years) (Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nMarket-implied odds of a 25bp hike\, not a cut\, have risen sharply and stood at around 83-85% as of mid-September 2026\, according to CME FedWatch-based trackers\nActual\nRaised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% (first hike in three years)\n\nFull schedule and background: FOMC Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 16\, 2026 \n\nThe Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16\, 2026\, its first rate increase in three years and a move widely anticipated after market-implied odds of a hike had climbed to around 83-85% beforehand. \nMarket pricing for the September 16\, 2026 FOMC decision has shifted unusually\, with traders now leaning towards a rate rise rather than a cut. According to Yahoo Finance\, odds of a 25 basis point hike tracked by the CME FedWatch tool reached nearly 56% after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh\, and a separate tracker at growbeansprout.com put hike odds at 85.5% by September 12\, 2026. Centralbank.watch similarly showed 83% odds of a hike. This follows a period of swinging expectations\, with emergencyfundcalculator.com noting odds moved from roughly 62% in early August to 30-40% after a weak jobs report. A surprise would be a hold or a cut against this hawkish market positioning. \n← Previous FOMC Rate DecisionNext FOMC Rate Decision →\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026\, at 2:00 p.m. EDT\, following a two-day meeting on September 15-16. This is a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) meeting\, meaning the FOMC will simultaneously release updated quarterly economic forecasts and the “dot plot” of individual member rate expectations. The September meeting is historically one of the most anticipated of the year\, as it falls midway through the third quarter and provides the first full picture of how the Fed has revised its outlook for growth\, inflation\, and the rate path heading into year-end. The federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75%\, held through multiple meetings in 2026 as the FOMC navigates elevated inflation and a resilient labour market. \nThe Federal Reserve and the FOMC\nThe Federal Open Market Committee is the monetary policy-setting body of the Federal Reserve (the Fed). It meets eight times per year\, with four of those meetings producing a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot: March\, June\, September\, and December. The September meeting is a pivotal one in the annual calendar. It comes after the summer data flow\, covering Q2 GDP and July-August inflation and employment readings\, and it sets up the final two meetings of the year (October and December). It is at September meetings that the Fed has historically made some of its most significant policy pivots\, as the committee can draw on a full half-year of data to assess whether the pace of disinflation or growth slowdown warrants action. \nThe FOMC’s dual mandate is maximum employment and price stability. The Fed targets headline PCE inflation at 2% over the longer run\, and the September SEP will include updated projections for PCE and core PCE inflation\, real GDP growth\, unemployment\, and the federal funds rate path. These projections are the closest thing the Fed publishes to a formal policy commitment\, though they are not binding and can be revised at subsequent meetings. \nFOMC September Meeting: September 15-16\, 2026\nThe September 2026 meeting is one of the most consequential of the year. By September\, the committee will have data through August 2026 for all major indicators: CPI\, PCE\, NFP\, retail sales\, and GDP (including the Q2 2026 advance estimate due in late July). This rich data set will allow the FOMC to make an informed decision about whether the inflation trajectory and economic growth have evolved sufficiently to justify either a rate cut or a continued hold. \nThe March 2026 SEP\, the most recent available at the time of writing\, indicated just one rate cut expected in all of 2026. If the June and September SEPs maintain or shift this projection\, markets will adjust their rate expectations accordingly. A September SEP that shows two cuts now expected in 2026 (implying one at either September or a later meeting) would be interpreted as a dovish shift\, likely boosting equities and Treasuries. A SEP with zero expected cuts in 2026 would be hawkish and push yields higher. The decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EDT\, with Fed Chair Powell’s press conference beginning at 2:30 p.m. EDT. \nWhat to Expect\nWhether the FOMC cuts\, holds\, or hikes at September 2026 depends on a data flow that has not yet occurred. The key variables are the trajectory of core PCE inflation\, the strength of the labour market\, and GDP growth in Q2 2026. If core PCE has moderated towards 2.2-2.3% by September\, and NFP has shown a clear cooling trend\, the September meeting becomes a live candidate for the first rate cut since December 2025. If core PCE remains above 2.5% and the labour market stays tight\, another hold is the base case. \nGeopolitical factors\, particularly the Middle East energy price shock of 2026\, will have had time to either recede or intensify by September. The Fed’s ability to look through temporary energy-driven inflation (while cutting on the basis of contained core inflation) depends on inflation expectations remaining anchored\, which the FOMC monitors through breakeven inflation rates and consumer/business surveys. The FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 on June 17 and the July 28-29 meeting will both set important precedents for how September is interpreted. \nRate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nRate (Target Range)\nVote\n\n\n\n\nSep 2025\n-25bp\n4.00%-4.25%\nn/v\n\n\nNov 2025\n-25bp\n3.75%-4.00%\nn/v\n\n\nDec 2025\n-25bp\n3.50%-3.75%\n9-3\n\n\nJan 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nMar 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nApr 2026\nHold\n3.50%-3.75%\n8-4\n\n\nJun 2026\nTBD (Jun 16-17\, SEP)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\nJul 2026\nTBD (Jul 28-29)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\n\nSources: Federal Reserve Board; CNBC; J.P. Morgan. “n/v” = vote not yet verified. All rates are the federal funds target range. SEP = Summary of Economic Projections meeting. \nMarket Impact Scenarios\n\nHold with dovish dot plot – A hold at 3.50%-3.75% accompanied by a dot plot shifting to show two cuts in 2026 (implying a December cut) would be interpreted as a near-cut signal. Treasury yields would fall\, equities would rally\, and the dollar would soften. This is the scenario that would most encourage risk-taking ahead of Q4 2026.\nCut (25bp) – A cut to 3.25%-3.50% would confirm the start of a new easing cycle. The market reaction would be strongly positive for equities and bonds\, particularly if accompanied by a dot plot showing further cuts in 2027. The September 2026 cut would be the most anticipated easing step since the 2025 cycle began.\nHold with hawkish dot plot – A hold accompanied by a dot plot showing zero cuts in 2026 (or even no cuts until 2027) would push yields sharply higher\, pressure equities\, and strengthen the dollar\, indicating the Fed sees inflation as an ongoing constraint on easing.\n\nPress Conference and Forward Guidance\nThe September press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT is one of the most closely watched of the year\, given the simultaneous release of the updated SEP and dot plot. Powell’s characterisation of the inflation trajectory and the committee’s confidence in inflation returning to 2% will set the tone for market expectations through year-end. Language around the “balance of risks” and the committee’s “readiness to adjust” will be parsed for any signal about October or December action. \nThe September 2026 SEP will also update projections through 2028\, providing the most comprehensive picture of where the FOMC expects the federal funds rate to settle in the longer run. Any revision to the “longer-run neutral rate” estimate\, currently around 3%\, would be a significant market event in itself\, as it defines the endpoint of any rate-cutting cycle. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The June SEP meeting is the preceding comparable SEP decision and the most recent dot plot ahead of September.\nUS Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) June 2026 – Labour market data from June through August feeds into the Fed’s employment assessment at the September meeting.\nUS CPI Report June 2026 – CPI and PCE data through August are the critical inflation inputs for the September rate decision.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhy is the September FOMC meeting particularly important?\nSeptember is a SEP meeting\, meaning it produces updated economic forecasts and a dot plot alongside the rate decision. It falls at a natural midpoint in the second half of the year\, when the Fed has sufficient data on Q2 economic performance to assess whether the full-year policy trajectory needs adjustment. Historically\, September meetings have been associated with significant policy pivots\, including the start of both easing and tightening cycles. \nWhen will the FOMC September 2026 decision be announced?\nThe FOMC will publish its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday\, September 16\, 2026. The Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot will be released simultaneously. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. EDT. \nWhat is the FOMC dot plot and why is it released at September meetings?\nThe dot plot is a chart showing each FOMC member’s expectation for the appropriate federal funds rate at year-end for the current year and the next two years\, plus the longer run. It is released at the four SEP meetings each year (March\, June\, September\, December). Markets use the median dot to gauge the committee’s collective rate path\, though individual projections can vary widely and the plot can change significantly between meetings. \nResults: FOMC Rate Decision\, September 16\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nFederal funds target range\n25bp hike priced at 83-85% odds (CME FedWatch-based trackers)\nRaised 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%\nHeld at 3.50%-3.75% (July 29\, 2026)\n\n\n\nThe Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point on September 16\, 2026\, taking the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. According to CNBC\, the move was the Fed’s first rate increase in three years and had been “widely anticipated by Wall Street” going into the decision\, after market-implied odds of a hike climbed to around 83-85% in the days beforehand. \nThe hike follows a run of holds at 3.50%-3.75% stretching back to December 2025\, including a 9-3 vote to keep rates unchanged at the July 28-29\, 2026 meeting\, when three members (Beth Hammack\, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan) had already dissented in favour of raising rates\, according to the official minutes cited by KuCoin. The scenario that materialised was closer to the hawkish end of what was previewed: rather than a hold with a hawkish dot plot\, the committee moved directly to a rate rise\, reflecting concerns that inflation was proving more persistent than the earlier hold-and-wait approach had assumed. Formal vote counts and the updated Summary of Economic Projections from the September meeting were not fully detailed in the earliest wire reports and are expected to be confirmed in the post-meeting minutes. \nMarket Reaction\nBond markets showed a measured response immediately after the announcement. The 10-year Treasury yield eased by almost 5 basis points to around 4.947%\, according to CNBC’s live coverage\, consistent with a decision that had been largely priced in beforehand rather than a surprise shock. \nBecause the hike had been flagged well in advance through Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s public remarks and shifting futures pricing\, the immediate reaction across equities\, the dollar and other asset classes was reported as contained rather than disorderly. Attention now turns to Chair Powell’s press conference commentary and the updated dot plot for signals on whether September marks a one-off adjustment or the start of a longer tightening path into the October and December meetings. \nKey takeaways from the statement\n\nThe Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%\, its first increase since the tightening cycle that predated the 2025 rate cuts.\nThe move had been heavily pre-signalled in market pricing\, with hike odds running at 83-85% ahead of the decision\, according to CME FedWatch-based trackers.\nIt follows a 9-3 vote to hold rates in July 2026\, when three members already dissented in favour of raising rates\, indicating the hike had building support within the Committee.\nFull vote details and the updated Summary of Economic Projections for the September meeting were not confirmed in the earliest reports and are expected in the official statement and minutes.\nMarkets will now focus on Powell’s press conference language and the dot plot for guidance on whether further hikes are likely at the October or December meetings.\n\nWhat this means for your money now\nA rate rise\, rather than the hold or cut many households had expected earlier in the year\, means borrowing costs are set to stay higher for longer. Variable-rate mortgages\, credit cards and other loans tied to the federal funds rate are likely to become more expensive\, while savers holding cash in high-yield accounts or money market funds may see a modest further benefit from higher deposit rates. \nFor investors\, a hike after a long run of holds can unsettle equity valuations\, particularly for rate-sensitive sectors\, while a firmer dollar following the move could make imports cheaper but exports less competitive for US companies\, with knock-on effects for currency markets in the UK\, the eurozone and Asia. Pension savers and anyone with a fixed-rate mortgage due for renewal should watch the coming weeks closely\, as Powell’s press conference and the updated dot plot will shape expectations for the October and December meetings.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T070000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T080000
DTSTAMP:20260917T132107Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260917T132107Z
UID:1234-1789628400-1789632000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Bank of England MPC Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Bank of England MPC Rate Decision: Held at 3.75%\, vote 6-3 (three members voted for a hike to 4%) (Thursday\, September 17\, 2026 at 12:00 pm GMT (7:00 am ET\, 12:00 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nHold at 3.75% (Reuters poll of economists)\nActual\nHeld at 3.75%\, vote 6-3 (three members voted for a hike to 4%)\n\nFull schedule and background: Bank of England MPC Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 17\, 2026 \n\nThe Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 17\, 2026\, in a 6-3 vote matching the Reuters poll consensus\, while sharply raising its inflation forecast and pausing active gilt sales as Governor Andrew Bailey warned a rate rise may be needed if energy-driven price pressures persist. \nEconomists surveyed by Reuters expect the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 17\, 2026\, with most seeing no change through at least mid-2027 because inflation\, running near 3.1% this year\, is not judged weak enough for a majority of the Monetary Policy Committee to cut. This follows a divided 6-3 hold at the July 30 meeting\, when three members\, Huw Pill\, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann\, voted to raise rates to 4% amid concerns that higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict could keep inflation elevated. A surprise would be either a rate rise\, if the hawkish minority grows\, or a shift towards a near-term cut signal. \n← Previous Bank of England MPC Rate DecisionNext Bank of England MPC Rate Decision →\nThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday\, September 17\, 2026\, at 12:00 GMT. The decision will be accompanied by the simultaneous release of the monetary policy summary and detailed voting minutes. The Bank Rate currently stands at 3.75%\, held through multiple consecutive meetings in 2026 following three quarter-point cuts in 2025. The September meeting arrives after the BoE’s August Monetary Policy Report (MPR)\, which will have published updated staff forecasts for UK inflation\, GDP\, and unemployment\, providing the full data context for the September decision. Market forecasters broadly expect 1-2 rate cuts in 2026\, potentially placing September as a live candidate if UK inflation has shown meaningful progress towards the 2% target. \nThe Bank of England and the MPC\nThe Bank of England (the BoE) is the United Kingdom’s central bank and monetary authority. Its Monetary Policy Committee operates under a mandate to maintain price stability\, defined as CPI inflation at 2%\, as set by the UK government through the annual remit letter to the Governor. The MPC has nine members: the Governor\, three Deputy Governors\, the Chief Economist\, and four external members\, each with an equal vote and each casting that vote publicly. This transparency sets the BoE apart from most major central banks and allows markets to track shifting sentiment within the committee between meetings. \nThe MPC meets eight times per year\, with four meetings producing a Monetary Policy Report (MPR) containing updated staff economic projections: February\, May\, August\, and November. September is not an MPR meeting\, meaning the September 17 decision will not be accompanied by new staff forecasts. However\, the immediately preceding August MPR will have laid out the MPC’s most recent economic outlook and rate path guidance\, which will define the context for September. The September 17 decision follows a July 30 meeting and precedes November 5 (MPR meeting). \nMPC September Meeting: September 17\, 2026\nThe September 17 meeting takes place after three months of UK data released since the June 18 decision\, including the August MPR update. By September\, the MPC will have reviewed data for July and August inflation (UK CPI and RPI)\, Q2 2026 GDP\, July and August labour market reports\, and the full summer data set. The August MPR will have provided the committee’s most recent projections\, making September an assessment of whether the August outlook needs correction or confirmation. \nThe MPC’s internal divisions have been notable in 2026. February’s 5-4 hold (four members preferring a cut) contrasted sharply with April’s 8-1 hold (one member preferring a hike). This range reflects genuine disagreement about whether the current Bank Rate of 3.75% is appropriately calibrated given UK inflation\, which has been elevated by energy costs from the Middle East conflict. Wage growth\, which has been running above 4% year-on-year in the UK in early 2026\, is a particular concern for those worried about domestically generated services inflation. The Bank of England MPC Rate Decision June 2026 on June 18 is the most recent available reference point. \nWhat to Expect\nWhether September 2026 delivers a rate cut depends primarily on the trajectory of UK CPI and wage growth through the summer. If August CPI has returned towards 2.5% or below\, and wage growth has moderated below 4%\, the MPC will face a strong case for resuming the easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 3.50%. The four members who voted to cut in February will likely maintain or strengthen that view if inflation is trending lower; the consensus-holder members from March and April would need convincing data to cross over. \nThe global context also matters. If the US Federal Reserve has cut at its September 15-16 meeting (which falls two days before the BoE’s September 17 decision)\, the dollar-sterling dynamic could influence the BoE’s assessment of imported inflation risks. A weaker dollar following a Fed cut would reduce the sterling downside risk from a BoE cut\, making September more viable. The BoE explicitly monitors global central bank actions as part of its assessment of financial conditions. \nRate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nBank Rate\nVote\n\n\n\n\nMay 2025 (MPR)\n-25bp\n4.25%\nn/v\n\n\nAug 2025 (MPR)\n-25bp\n4.00%\nn/v\n\n\nDec 2025\n-25bp\n3.75%\nn/v\n\n\nFeb 2026 (MPR)\nHold\n3.75%\n5-4 (4 cut)\n\n\nMar 2026\nHold\n3.75%\n9-0\n\n\nApr 2026\nHold\n3.75%\n8-1 (1 hike)\n\n\nJun 2026\nTBD (Jun 18)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\nSep 2026\nTBD (Sep 17)\nTBD\nTBD\n\n\n\nSources: Bank of England; Cambridge Currencies. “n/v” = vote not yet verified. Three 25bp cuts in 2025 from 4.50% to 3.75%. MPR = Monetary Policy Report meeting (with forecasts). Feb 2026 vote: 5 hold\, 4 cut. Apr 2026 vote: 8 hold\, 1 hike. \nMarket Impact Scenarios\n\nCut (25bp) – A cut to 3.50% at September\, if not already priced\, would weaken sterling modestly\, boost UK government bonds (gilts)\, and support rate-sensitive equities (housebuilders\, REITs). This outcome would reflect growing confidence within the MPC that UK inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%\, and would likely be accompanied by a majority vote of at least 6-3.\nHold – A hold at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive 2026 meeting would signal that the MPC remains cautious about inflation risks\, particularly services inflation and wage growth. Sterling might strengthen modestly. Gilt yields would hold or edge higher. The market would then focus on November as the next realistic cut opportunity given its MPR format.\nHike – A hike following one member’s dissent in April would represent a majority shift and would only occur if UK CPI had spiked significantly above 3% by September. Such an outcome would strongly support sterling and UK gilt yields while pressuring equities\, particularly consumer and property sectors.\n\nPress Conference and Forward Guidance\nThe Bank of England does not hold a traditional post-decision press conference for non-MPR meetings like September. The decision is communicated through the monetary policy summary and the MPC minutes\, released simultaneously at 12:00 GMT. Governor Andrew Bailey may give speeches or media appearances in the following days\, but the minutes themselves serve as the primary forward guidance document. \nThe vote breakdown will be the most important signal for markets. A move towards a majority favouring cuts (e.g.\, 5-4 in favour of cutting) would strongly signal a November cut\, even if September produces a hold. Conversely\, if the hike dissent from April has spread to two members\, the market would reprice to remove cut expectations entirely and test sterling higher. \nRelated Events\n\nBank of England MPC Rate Decision June 2026 – The June 18 decision is the most recent available reference point for current BoE policy stance.\nFOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The US Fed’s June 16-17 decision and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting (immediately preceding BoE September) set the global rate context.\nECB Rate Decision June 2026 – The ECB’s trajectory influences UK-EU trade conditions and the broader European monetary policy environment that the BoE monitors.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat is the difference between a Monetary Policy Report meeting and a regular MPC meeting?\nAt Monetary Policy Report (MPR) meetings\, held in February\, May\, August\, and November\, the MPC publishes updated staff economic forecasts for UK inflation\, GDP\, and unemployment alongside the rate decision. These forecasts provide context for the rate decision and signal the MPC’s expected rate path. At non-MPR meetings (March\, June\, September\, December)\, only the decision\, summary\, and minutes are released\, without new forecasts. The August MPR\, immediately preceding September\, will have set the most recent forecast baseline. \nWhen will the Bank of England September 2026 decision be announced?\nThe MPC will publish its monetary policy decision at 12:00 GMT on Thursday\, September 17\, 2026. The monetary policy summary and minutes will be released simultaneously. September is not an MPR meeting\, so no updated staff economic projections will be published. \nHow does UK wage growth affect the MPC’s rate decisions?\nThe MPC monitors wage growth closely because it is a key determinant of services inflation\, the component of UK CPI most influenced by domestic price-setting. When wage growth runs significantly above productivity growth\, businesses face higher costs that often pass through into services prices\, making it difficult for overall CPI to return to the 2% target. The BoE’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report cited above-4% wage growth as a factor in its decision to hold\, and any sustained moderation in wage growth would be among the strongest signals that a cut is warranted. \nResults: Bank of England MPC Rate Decision\, September 17\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nBank Rate\nHold at 3.75% (Reuters poll)\nHeld at 3.75%\nHeld at 3.75% (July 30\, 2026)\n\n\nVote split\n6-3 hold expected\n6-3 (Pill\, Greene\, Mann voted to raise to 4%)\n6-3 (July 30\, 2026)\n\n\n2027 inflation peak forecast\nAround 3.2% (previous BoE forecast)\n“Slightly over 4%” in early 2027\nPeak of 3.2% (August Monetary Policy Report)\n\n\n\nThe Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting\, matching the median forecast from a Reuters poll of economists. The vote split of 6-3 was unchanged from July\, with Chief Economist Huw Pill and external members Megan Greene and Catherine Mann again voting for an immediate quarter-point rise to 4%. This matched the scenario most economists had flagged as the base case going into the meeting\, described in the preview as a continuation of the divided committee seen since April 2026. \nWhat changed was the tone\, not the vote. The BoE raised its estimate of third-quarter GDP growth to 0.4% from a previous 0.1%\, and revised its inflation forecast up\, saying UK CPI\, which stood at 3.1% in August\, could now reach “slightly over 4%” in early 2027\, above the previous forecast peak of 3.2%. The Bank also announced an unexpected pause of its active gilt sales for six months\, a move connected to the surge in long-dated gilt yields to their highest levels since 2007 in the weeks before the meeting. Governor Andrew Bailey and his deputies Sarah Breeden\, Clare Lombardelli and Dave Ramsden all raised\, for the first time\, the explicit prospect of a future rate increase in the minutes\, marking a shift from a committee previously split between cutters and holders towards one now weighing hikes. \nMarket Reaction\nSterling firmed modestly against the dollar and the euro immediately after the decision\, as traders interpreted the harder inflation language and the gilt sales pause as an early signal that the MPC’s next move is more likely to be a rate rise than a cut. Gilt yields\, which had already pushed above 5.2% at the 10-year point in the days before the meeting\, the highest since 2008\, remained elevated as the Bank’s pause on active sales reduced the near-term supply overhang. \nRate-sensitive parts of the UK equity market\, including housebuilders and real estate investment trusts\, softened on the day as markets pushed back expectations for any 2026 rate cut and began pricing a greater chance of tightening at the November 5 meeting\, which will carry a new Monetary Policy Report. Money markets\, according to reporting on the decision\, moved to reflect reduced odds of the four-cut path some investors had still been pricing for 2027\, focusing attention instead on whether the hawkish minority of three grows further before November. \nWhat this means for your money now\nMortgage borrowers on trackers or coming up for remortgage should not expect the cheaper rates some had hoped for later in 2026: the Bank’s harder line on inflation\, with a forecast peak of just over 4% in early 2027\, makes a near-term cut less likely and a rise more plausible if energy prices stay high. Savers benefit for longer from rates holding at 3.75%\, with little pressure on banks to cut deposit rates soon. Anyone with mortgages\, savings or investments exposed to sterling should watch the November 5 decision\, which comes with a full Monetary Policy Report and will show whether the three-strong hawkish minority has grown enough to tip the committee towards an actual hike.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/bank-of-england-mpc-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T093000
DTSTAMP:20260917T142345Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260917T142345Z
UID:1331-1789633800-1789637400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts): 1.275 million SAAR\, -2.6% MoM (single-family +7.6% to 918k\, multi-family -22.5% to 344k) (Thursday\, September 17\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\na consensus forecast for August 2026 has not yet been widely published as of this writing\nActual\n1.275 million SAAR\, -2.6% MoM (single-family +7.6% to 918k\, multi-family -22.5% to 344k)\n\nFull schedule and background: US Housing Starts. \nUpdated September 17\, 2026 \n\nUS housing starts fell 2.6% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.275 million units in August 2026\, the Census Bureau reported on September 17\, 2026\, as a rebound in single-family construction was offset by a sharp drop in multi-family starts and building permits. \nEconomists have not yet converged on a widely published consensus for the August 2026 housing starts figure\, though forecasters are watching closely after July’s reading fell to 1.24 million annualised units\, well below the earlier consensus of 1.30 million\, according to TD Economics. With mortgage rates hovering near 6.7% and builder incentives still widespread\, most analysts expect August starts to remain soft\, likely in the low 1.2 million to 1.3 million range\, though this is not yet a formal survey figure. A surprise would be a sharp rebound above 1.4 million\, which would suggest builders are shrugging off high borrowing costs\, or a further slide below 1.2 million\, which would deepen concerns about the housing market’s contribution to broader economic growth. \n← Previous US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts)Next US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) →\nThe United States Census Bureau\, jointly with the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)\, will release New Residential Construction data for August 2026 on Thursday\, September 17\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report\, commonly known as the housing starts report\, covers the number of new privately owned housing units on which construction began during the reference month. Consensus forecasts for August 2026 will develop closer to the release date\, as major polling organisations typically publish estimates in the week prior to the report. \nWhat Is the Housing Starts Report?\nThe New Residential Construction report is a monthly joint release from the Census Bureau and HUD covering three key metrics: housing starts (units where construction began)\, building permits (authorisations for future construction)\, and housing completions (units finished during the month). Seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) are used to remove weather-related and other seasonal distortions\, enabling meaningful month-to-month comparisons. \nHousing starts are divided into two main segments: single-family homes and multi-family units (buildings with five or more units). Single-family starts reflect individual homebuyer demand and builder confidence\, while multi-family starts are heavily influenced by the rental market\, institutional investors\, and financing conditions. The data is released approximately 17 business days after the end of the survey month. \nHousing is a leading economic indicator. Construction activity ripples through dozens of related industries\, including building materials\, appliances\, landscaping\, and financial services\, meaning sustained changes in housing starts typically signal broader economic momentum or slowdown several months ahead. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) monitors residential construction data closely as part of its assessment of economic activity and inflationary pressure in the shelter component of consumer prices. \nHousing Starts Report: September 17\, 2026\nThe September 17 release will cover August 2026 construction activity. Consensus estimates from major financial institutions and polling services are not yet published\, as the report is more than three months away at the time of writing. Market expectations will be shaped by mortgage rate conditions\, builder sentiment surveys (particularly the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index)\, and the trend in building permits\, which serve as a forward indicator for starts. \nThe April 2026 report\, the most recent data available at the time of writing\, showed housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.465 million units\, a decline of 2.8% from the revised March rate of 1.507 million. Within the April figure\, single-family starts fell 9% to 930\,000 units while multi-family starts jumped 14.3% to 529\,000 units\, according to the Census Bureau. Elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on single-family construction\, while demand for rental housing sustains multi-family activity. \nWhy This Report Matters\nHousing starts are a bellwether for consumer confidence and credit availability. When builders break ground on new homes\, it signals that demand is sufficient to justify the investment\, which in turn reflects household expectations about income\, employment\, and borrowing costs. A sustained decline in single-family starts typically precedes a slowdown in household goods spending\, as new homeowners are significant buyers of furniture\, appliances\, and home improvement products. \nFor the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)\, housing data is a critical input. Shelter costs account for a substantial share of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)\, and new residential construction directly affects future rental and ownership supply. If starts remain suppressed\, shelter inflation is likely to stay elevated\, complicating the Fed’s path to its 2% inflation target. The timing of this release is particularly notable: the FOMC Rate Decision on September 16\, 2026\, falls just one day before\, meaning markets will be processing two major data points in rapid succession. \nFor equity markets\, housing starts influence the performance of homebuilders\, building materials companies\, mortgage lenders\, and home improvement retailers. For the bond market\, a stronger-than-expected reading implies continued inflationary pressure in shelter costs\, which could push yields modestly higher. A miss would have the opposite effect\, potentially reinforcing expectations for rate cuts. \nWhat to Watch For\nAnalysts will focus on several key metrics within the September 17 release: \n\nAbove consensus — A stronger-than-expected reading signals sustained builder confidence and healthy demand conditions. A recovery in single-family starts in particular would suggest buyers are returning despite elevated mortgage rates\, and could firm expectations for a longer high-rate environment\, modestly pressuring Treasury bonds.\nIn line with consensus — A matching result would reinforce current market pricing. Attention would shift to the building permits sub-component and any revisions to prior months’ figures\, which frequently move markets even when the headline is neutral.\nBelow consensus — A miss would signal that affordability constraints are weighing more heavily on builders. Single-family starts falling significantly would be the most market-moving scenario\, raising concerns about a broader housing slowdown. Bond yields could ease on expectations that weaker housing activity will dampen shelter inflation.\n\nBeyond the headline figure\, markets will watch: building permits (the most reliable forward indicator for starts over the following one to three months)\, the single-family versus multi-family split\, and any revisions to the prior two months. A sustained drop in permit issuance reliably forecasts lower starts in coming months and is frequently more market-moving than the headline itself. \nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nReference Month\nActual (SAAR)\nMoM Change\n\n\n\n\nMay 21\, 2026\nApril 2026\n1.465 million\n-2.8%\n\n\nApril 29\, 2026\nMarch 2026\n1.507 million\n+10.8%\n\n\nMarch 12\, 2026\nJanuary 2026\n1.487 million\n+7.2%\n\n\nFebruary 2026\nDecember 2025\n1.387 million\n—\n\n\n\nMarket Positioning\nAs of early June 2026\, housing starts are running above the long-run historical average of approximately 1.43 million units per year\, though well below the pre-financial-crisis peak of 2.49 million units reached in January 2006. The recent divergence between single-family and multi-family construction reflects two competing forces: mortgage rate headwinds suppressing owner-occupier demand\, and a structural undersupply of rental housing sustaining multi-family activity. \nBuilder sentiment\, as measured by the NAHB Housing Market Index\, will be published in the days before the September 17 release and may shape market expectations. Any meaningful shift in mortgage rates between now and August will significantly influence the eventual result. Futures markets will track how the report’s implications intersect with the US CPI Report September 2026\, given housing’s weight in the shelter component of consumer prices. \nRelated Events This Week\n\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 — The Fed’s September 16 rate decision directly sets the cost of mortgage finance and builder loans\, making it the critical context for interpreting housing starts one day later.\nUS CPI Report September 2026 — Inflation data released the week before will frame whether housing is providing or absorbing inflationary pressure in the shelter component.\nUS Retail Sales September 2026 — Retail sales data in the same week will complete the picture of consumer demand\, which drives both the need for housing and the spending that follows a home purchase.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the housing starts report measure?\nThe housing starts report\, formally titled New Residential Construction\, measures the number of new privately owned residential units where construction began during the reference month. Published jointly by the Census Bureau and HUD\, it includes both single-family homes and multi-family buildings. The headline figure is expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) to allow meaningful comparison across months. \nWhen is the September 2026 housing starts report released?\nThe August 2026 housing starts data will be published on Thursday\, September 17\, 2026\, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report is typically released approximately 17 business days after the end of the survey month\, jointly by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. \nHow do housing starts affect financial markets?\nA stronger-than-expected housing starts reading can push Treasury yields modestly higher\, as it implies continued shelter-driven inflation\, and tends to lift shares of homebuilders\, materials companies\, and home improvement retailers. A weaker reading has the opposite effect. The report’s greatest market-moving potential comes when it provides new information about the direction of shelter inflation\, which is a key variable for Federal Reserve policy. \nResults: US Housing Starts\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHousing starts (SAAR)\nNo widely published Reuters or Bloomberg consensus; Moody’s Analytics had forecast 1.283 million\n1.275 million\, -2.6% month-on-month\n1.309 million (July 2026\, revised up from 1.239 million originally reported)\n\n\nSingle-family starts\nNot separately forecast\n918\,000\, +7.6% month-on-month\, +5.2% year-on-year\n853\,000 (July\, revised)\n\n\nMulti-family starts (5+ units)\nNot separately forecast\n344\,000\, -22.5% month-on-month\n445\,000 approx (July\, implied)\n\n\nBuilding permits (SAAR)\nNot separately forecast\n1.394 million\, -2.7% month-on-month\n1.433 million (July\, revised)\n\n\n\nThe Census Bureau and HUD reported that privately-owned housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.275 million units in August 2026\, down 2.6% from July’s upwardly revised estimate of 1.309 million and 1.2% below the August 2025 rate\, according to the US Census Bureau. The headline decline masked a sharp divergence between segments: single-family starts\, which make up the bulk of homebuilding\, rose 7.6% to 918\,000 units\, while multi-family starts in buildings of five or more units plunged 22.5% to 344\,000\, a volatile category prone to large monthly swings. \nThe July reading was revised substantially higher\, from an original 1.239 million to 1.309 million\, illustrating how much early estimates in this series can move. Building permits\, which point to construction activity in the coming months\, fell 2.7% to 1.394 million\, with single-family authorisations down 1.8% to 878\,000. Housing completions dropped 11.9% to 1.128 million\, well below the August 2025 pace\, a sign that the pipeline of finished homes is narrowing even as new single-family ground-breaking picked up. No formal Reuters or Bloomberg consensus was published for this release at the time of writing\, though Moody’s Analytics had pencilled in 1.283 million\, only marginally above the actual figure\, according to Moody’s Analytics. \nThe single-family rebound landed closer to the “in line with consensus” scenario flagged in the preview\, while the multi-family collapse and the fall in permits tilted the overall report toward the softer end of expectations\, consistent with builders responding to higher borrowing costs by pulling back on rental and apartment projects even as some single-family demand held up. \nMarket Reaction\nThe release landed alongside a separate NAHB builder sentiment survey showing confidence among single-family builders at a one-year low\, and against a backdrop of rising mortgage rates as US Treasury yields climbed on oil prices pushed above 100 dollars a barrel by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran\, according to Reuters. Homebuilder stocks and mortgage-sensitive shares were pressured more by the broader move in yields and oil than by the housing data itself\, which was viewed as a mixed\, not decisively weak\, print. \nBond markets continued to price rising mortgage rates as the dominant theme of the session\, with the drop in permits reinforcing expectations that the single-family rebound in starts is unlikely to be sustained if financing costs keep climbing. Investors are watching the next NAHB index and the following month’s permits figure for confirmation of whether August’s single-family pickup was a temporary bounce or the start of a more durable trend. \nWhat this means for your money now\nMortgage rates were already rising sharply on the day of this release because of the jump in oil prices and Treasury yields tied to the Middle East conflict\, not primarily because of the housing data itself\, so borrowers and prospective buyers should watch the broader rates story as much as this report. The fall in building permits and completions suggests the supply of new homes coming to market may tighten in the months ahead\, which could keep upward pressure on rents and home prices in areas where inventory is already thin. For anyone with savings tied to money market or short-term rates\, the housing report changes little on its own\, but it adds to the case that shelter costs\, and therefore inflation\, could stay stickier if higher mortgage rates choke off single-family building again in the coming months.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-new-residential-construction-housing-starts-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T093000
DTSTAMP:20260917T132200Z
CREATED:20260825T105218Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260917T132200Z
UID:2078-1789633800-1789637400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Initial Jobless Claims: September 17\, 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Initial Jobless Claims: 196\,000 initial claims (week ended Sept 12\, 2026)\, down 10\,000; continuing claims 1.73 million\, down 39\,000 (Thursday\, September 17\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London)). \n\nConsensus\nAround 205\,000 to 210\,000 new claims\nActual\n196\,000 initial claims (week ended Sept 12\, 2026)\, down 10\,000; continuing claims 1.73 million\, down 39\,000\n\nFull schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nUpdated September 17\, 2026 \n\nUS initial jobless claims fell 10\,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196\,000 for the week ended September 12\, 2026\, well below the 207\,000 to 208\,000 range economists had forecast and the lowest reading since July. \nEconomists have not published a firm consensus specific to this release\, but recent weeks have clustered close to 205\,000\, according to Trading Economics\, which reported claims easing to 206\,000 for the week ended September 6\, 2026\, near the roughly 60-year low of 189\,000 hit in mid-July. Analysts expect the labour market to stay resilient\, so a reading close to 205\,000 to 210\,000 would be unremarkable. A surprise would be a jump towards 230\,000 or higher\, which would revive concerns about a cooling jobs market and reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. \n← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims\nThe US Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending September 13\, 2026 is due on Thursday\, September 17\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time). It is published weekly by the US Department of Labor and counts the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits\, one of the timeliest signals available on the health of the American labour market. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of this preview\, a consensus forecast for the week ending September 13\, 2026 has not yet been published. Economist surveys for weekly claims are typically finalised only a day or two before release\, so the figure will firm up closer to September 17. \nThe most recently confirmed reading in this series was for the week ending August 15\, 2026: initial claims fell to 206\,000\, below the median forecast of 210\,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists\, and down from 212\,000 the previous week\, according to Bloomberg. Continuing claims\, which measure people still receiving benefits after an initial claim\, rose by 18\,000 to 1\,799\,000 in the week ending August 8\, 2026\, according to Trading Economics\, citing Department of Labor data. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (week ending Aug 15\, 2026)\nConsensus for Sept 13\, 2026 week\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n206\,000\nNot yet published\n\n\nContinuing claims\n1\,799\,000 (week ending Aug 8)\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nPlain-English meaning\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nDovish for the Federal Reserve\, often weighs on the dollar and can lift bond prices\nMore people than expected filed for benefits\, a sign hiring may be cooling\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\nThe labour market is behaving broadly as expected\, no fresh signal for the Fed\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCan be read as hawkish\, supporting the dollar and pushing bond yields higher\nFewer people filed for benefits than expected\, pointing to continued labour market strength\n\n\n\nWhy it matters this week\nWeekly claims have stayed close to historically low levels through the summer of 2026\, with initial claims hovering in the 199\,000 to 212\,000 range and continuing claims edging up toward 1.8 million\, according to PNC Economics Research. That combination\, low new claims but a slowly rising pool of people still receiving benefits\, suggests employers are not laying off many workers but are taking longer to rehire those who lose a job. \nThe Federal Reserve watches this data closely because it arrives weekly\, far more often than the monthly jobs report\, giving policymakers an early read on whether the labour market is weakening. A sustained rise in claims would add to the case for further interest rate cuts\, while claims staying low would support the view that the US economy remains close to full employment. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nJobless claims feed directly into how investors think the Federal Reserve will move interest rates\, which in turn affects mortgage rates\, credit card costs and savings account yields in the United States. A run of higher-than-expected claims tends to push bond yields down and can nudge mortgage rates lower\, while unusually low claims can keep borrowing costs elevated for longer. \nFor anyone holding US shares\, US dollar cash\, or funds with American exposure\, from the UK\, Europe and Asia as much as from the US itself\, a weak claims report can weigh on the dollar and lift the pound and euro against it\, while a strong report tends to do the opposite. Pension savers with global equity funds will feel these swings indirectly through fund values rather than in a single headline number. \nNone of this is decisive on its own. Weekly claims are volatile and one release rarely changes the picture; it is the trend over several weeks that tends to matter for mortgage rates\, hiring plans and investment portfolios. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the September 17 jobless claims report released?\nIt is released at 8:30 am ET\, which is 1:30 pm in London\, by the US Department of Labor. \nWhat counts as a big miss versus consensus?\nBecause weekly claims are volatile\, economists generally treat a move of more than 15\,000 to 20\,000 away from consensus as notable enough to shift market expectations for the Federal Reserve. \nWhen is the next jobless claims report after this one?\nJobless claims are published every Thursday\, so the following report covering the week ending September 20\, 2026 is due on September 24\, 2026. \n← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims\nResults: US Initial Jobless Claims\, week ended September 12\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n207\,000 to 208\,000\n196\,000\n206\,000 (week ended Sept 5\, 2026)\n\n\nContinuing claims\nNot separately forecast\n1\,730\,000\n1\,769\,000 (revised)\n\n\n\nInitial jobless claims fell 10\,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196\,000 in the week ended September 12\, 2026\, the lowest since July and well below the 207\,000 to 208\,000 range economists polled by Dow Jones and Reuters had forecast\, according to CNBC and Reuters. The Labor Department noted the week included the Labor Day holiday\, which can cause claims to swing more than usual\, so some of the drop may reflect seasonal noise rather than a fresh improvement in hiring. \nThis outcome landed at the low end of the scenarios set out in the preview: a reading below consensus\, which analysts had said would point to continued labour market strength rather than any cooling. Continuing claims\, which track people still receiving benefits after an initial claim\, dropped 39\,000 to 1.73 million\, a more than two-year low\, according to Bloomberg. That combination\, fewer new claims and fewer people still on benefit rolls\, is a firmer signal of labour market resilience than the single week’s initial claims figure on its own. \nThe report was released the same week that the same set of data covers the survey period for August’s nonfarm payrolls report\, and arrived a day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years\, a decision that had unsettled markets on September 16. \nMarket Reaction\nUS stock index futures extended Thursday’s rebound after the claims data\, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up around 619 points\, or 1.2%\, S&P 500 futures up 1.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures up 1.7%\, led by technology stocks including Nvidia\, Amazon and Microsoft\, according to CNBC. Treasury yields eased following the release\, with the 10-year yield slipping back below 5%\, as traders weighed the stronger-than-expected labour market signal against softer housing data released the same morning. \nBecause the report followed the Federal Reserve’s surprise rate rise a day earlier\, the reaction reflected both events rather than the claims data alone. A labour market that continues to run this tight gives the Fed less reason to reverse course quickly\, which markets are likely to keep watching for at the central bank’s next meeting. For investors in London\, Frankfurt and Tokyo\, the combination of a resilient US jobs market and higher US rates tends to support the dollar against the pound and euro over time\, though the immediate reaction on September 17 was dominated by relief that the labour market had not weakened further. \nWhat this means for your money now\nA jobless claims reading this low\, alongside a recent Fed rate rise\, points to borrowing costs in the US staying higher for longer rather than falling soon. For anyone with a mortgage\, savings account or pension fund tied to US assets\, this combination argues for higher-for-longer interest rates rather than the rate cuts some investors had been pricing in earlier in 2026. \nA resilient US labour market and a stronger dollar can make imports more expensive for UK and European households and businesses\, and can weigh on the value of pound or euro holdings when converted back from dollars. Investors with global pension or investment funds are likely to see this reflected gradually in fund values rather than as an immediate\, sharp swing.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-initial-jobless-claims-september-17-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T193000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260917T203000
DTSTAMP:20260918T123036Z
CREATED:20260826T033440Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260918T123036Z
UID:2265-1789673400-1789677000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Japan CPI September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Japan CPI: Headline CPI +1.9% YoY (steady vs 1.9% prior)\, Core CPI ex fresh food +1.7% YoY (down from 1.8%\, below 1.8% consensus)\, Core-core CPI ex fresh food and energy +1.9% YoY (steady) (Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 8:30 am JST (7:30 pm ET\, 12:30 am London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nActual\nHeadline CPI +1.9% YoY (steady vs 1.9% prior)\, Core CPI ex fresh food +1.7% YoY (down from 1.8%\, below 1.8% consensus)\, Core-core CPI ex fresh food and energy +1.9% YoY (steady)\n\nFull schedule and background: Japan CPI. \nUpdated September 18\, 2026 \n\nJapan’s headline consumer price index held steady at 1.9% year-on-year in August 2026\, while core inflation excluding fresh food eased to 1.7% from 1.8% in July\, coming in below the 1.8% consensus\, the Statistics Bureau reported on September 18\, 2026. \nA specific consensus forecast for the August 2026 Japan CPI reading has not yet been published by major polling services ahead of the September 18 release. The prior reading\, for July 2026\, showed headline inflation accelerate to 1.9% year-on-year according to Japan’s Statistics Bureau\, up from 1.6% in June. The Bank of Japan has warned that core inflation is likely to move to a level \nJapan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026 is scheduled for release on September 18\, 2026 at 8:30 am Japan Standard Time\, which is 7:30 pm ET on September 17 and 12:30 am London time on September 18. The figures are published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan and cover price changes for August 2026 compared with a year earlier. Full schedule and background: Japan CPI. \nWhat is Japan CPI?\nThe Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services\, from rice and electricity to rent and rail fares. It is the country’s main measure of inflation and is compiled monthly by the Statistics Bureau of Japan\, part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. \nThree versions of the index matter most to markets. The headline figure includes everything. “Core CPI” strips out fresh food\, which swings with weather and harvests\, to give a cleaner read on underlying price trends. A further measure\, sometimes called “core-core” CPI\, also excludes energy\, isolating price pressure that has little to do with volatile oil and gas costs. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) watches the core (ex fresh food) figure most closely when setting interest rates. \nInvestors\, currency traders and the BOJ itself use the release to judge whether inflation is settling near the central bank’s 2% target on a durable basis\, or whether it is being driven by temporary factors such as import costs or subsidy changes. Because Japan spent decades battling deflation\, sustained inflation above target is treated as a genuinely significant shift\, not routine noise. \nWhen is the August Japan CPI released?\nThe Statistics Bureau of Japan will publish the August 2026 CPI report on Friday\, September 18\, 2026\, at 8:30 am local time. The data appears on the bureau’s official website. For readers outside Japan\, that is 7:30 pm Eastern Time the previous evening (September 17) and 12:30 am in London on September 18\, so European and American markets react to the numbers overnight or first thing the next morning depending on their time zone. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 report has not yet been published. Economist surveys from Reuters and Bloomberg typically appear only in the days immediately before release. The most recent published data is for July 2026\, when the Statistics Bureau reported headline CPI at 1.9% year-on-year and core CPI (ex fresh food) at 1.8% year-on-year\, both up from June\, according to Investing.com. The core-core measure\, which excludes fresh food and energy\, rose to 1.9% year-on-year in July\, according to Trading Economics. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI (YoY)\n1.9%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCore CPI\, ex fresh food (YoY)\n1.8%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCore-core CPI\, ex fresh food and energy (YoY)\n1.9%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nYen could strengthen and Japanese government bond yields could rise if traders see this as supporting further Bank of Japan rate hikes\nPrices are rising faster than expected\, adding pressure on the BOJ to keep tightening policy\, which can make borrowing costlier at home but may attract investors seeking higher Japanese yields\n\n\nIn line with prior trend\nMuted reaction\, as this would confirm the gradual pickup in inflation seen since spring\, described by Trading Economics as broadening price pressure\nInflation is behaving roughly as expected\, so the BOJ is unlikely to change its cautious\, gradual approach to rate decisions\n\n\nBelow consensus\nYen could soften if markets read this as reducing the urgency for the BOJ to raise rates further\nPrice growth is cooling\, which could ease pressure on household budgets but may also signal weaker demand in the economy\n\n\n\nThese are possible market reactions based on how similar releases have been discussed by analysts\, not predictions of what will happen in September. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nJapanese inflation has been gradually accelerating through 2026. Core CPI eased to around 1.6% in the spring before picking up to 1.8% in July\, according to data reported by FX.co. Trading Economics attributed part of the July acceleration to higher energy\, food\, and household goods costs\, with government fuel subsidies gradually being scaled back and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding pressure to import costs. \nThe Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points (a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point) in June 2026 to its highest level since 1995\, according to Trading Economics\, its first hike since the previous December. Inflation remaining close to\, but still below\, the BOJ’s 2% target keeps the central bank in a delicate position: too little inflation risks a return to the deflationary pressures Japan battled for decades\, while too much risks squeezing households and businesses that have grown used to low borrowing costs. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nMortgages and borrowing: most Japanese mortgages are variable rate\, so a BOJ that keeps raising interest rates in response to persistent inflation could gradually push up monthly repayments for homeowners in Japan. \nSavings: higher policy rates tend to filter through slowly to Japanese savings accounts\, which have offered near-zero returns for years\, so any further tightening could finally bring modestly better returns for savers. \nJobs and wages: sustained inflation increases pressure on Japanese employers to raise wages to keep pace with living costs\, a dynamic the BOJ is watching closely as a sign that inflation is becoming self-sustaining rather than temporary. \nPrices: higher CPI readings mean everyday costs\, from groceries to utility bills\, are rising faster for households in Japan\, directly affecting spending power. \nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: a firmer yen driven by BOJ rate expectations can affect returns for international investors holding Japanese assets\, while UK\, European and Asian exporters that sell into Japan or compete with Japanese firms watch the yen’s direction closely\, since a stronger yen makes Japanese exports pricier and imports into Japan cheaper. \nRelated events\n\nBank of Japan interest rate decisions\, which respond directly to CPI trends\nTokyo CPI\, a preliminary read on national inflation published roughly three weeks before the national figure\nUS and eurozone inflation releases\, which shape the broader global backdrop against which the yen and other currencies trade\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Japan CPI report released?\nThe Statistics Bureau of Japan releases the CPI at 8:30 am Japan Standard Time\, which is 7:30 pm ET the previous day and 12:30 am in London. \nHow should I read the headline versus core CPI figures?\nHeadline CPI includes all items\, while core CPI excludes fresh food (and sometimes energy too) to show the underlying inflation trend that the Bank of Japan focuses on for policy decisions. \nHow does Japan CPI affect interest rates?\nPersistently high core CPI readings increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate further\, while weaker readings reduce that pressure. \nWhere can I find the official Japan CPI release?\nThe data is published on the Statistics Bureau of Japan’s official CPI page. \nWhen is the next Japan CPI report due?\nThe following month’s CPI report\, covering September 2026 data\, is typically published in the second half of October\, following the Statistics Bureau’s usual release pattern. \nResults: Japan CPI\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI (YoY)\nNot published\n1.9%\n1.9% (July 2026)\n\n\nCore CPI\, ex fresh food (YoY)\n1.8%\n1.7%\n1.8% (July 2026)\n\n\nCore-core CPI\, ex fresh food and energy (YoY)\nNot published\n1.9%\n1.9% (July 2026)\n\n\n\nJapan’s Statistics Bureau reported on September 18\, 2026 that headline CPI held steady at 1.9% year-on-year in August\, while the closely watched core measure\, which excludes fresh food\, eased to 1.7%\, a touch below the 1.8% level economists had expected and down from July’s 1.8%. This was the first slowdown in core inflation in four months. The Statistics Bureau and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications attributed the softer core reading largely to government subsidies on utilities and fuel offsetting steady gains in food and discretionary spending\, according to The Japan Times and Investing.com. \nThe August data landed hours before the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on the same day\, and the readings mattered directly for that meeting. Capital Economics told Investing.com that inflation was little changed in August but that mounting energy cost pressures point to core inflation rising above the BOJ’s 2% target before long. The print broadly matched the “in line with the prior trend” scenario outlined ahead of release\, rather than a sharp acceleration or deceleration. \nMarket Reaction\nJapanese asset prices reacted in an unusual way once the CPI figures were followed by the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%\, the highest level since 1995. Rather than strengthening on higher rates\, the yen weakened past 157 against the dollar\, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond slipped around 4.9 basis points to 2.947%\, according to CNBC. The Nikkei 225 gained between 1.5% and 2.1% over the session\, extending gains after the rate decision\, according to Investing.com. \nAnalysts pointed to two dissenting votes on the nine-member BOJ board\, from members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato\, and the absence of updated economic forecasts\, as reasons markets treated the hike as less hawkish than the headline rate move suggested\, according to CNBC. Attention now turns to whether a further hike arrives around December\, with the widening gap between US and Japanese interest rates continuing to weigh on the yen. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe softer core inflation print\, alongside a rate hike that still left the yen weaker rather than stronger\, means the near-term outlook for UK\, European and Asian holders of yen-denominated assets or Japanese exporters has not changed dramatically. A weaker yen continues to make Japanese exports more competitive globally and imports into Japan more expensive\, while Japanese borrowers face a gradually rising cost of credit as the BOJ’s policy rate climbs toward its highest level in three decades.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/japan-cpi-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC:20260918T000000
DTEND;TZID=UTC:20260918T235959
DTSTAMP:20260918T122954Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260918T122954Z
UID:1258-1789689600-1789775999@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Bank of Japan Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Bank of Japan Rate Decision: Hiked 25bp to 1.25% (uncollateralised overnight call rate)\, vote 7-2 (Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 12:00 pm JST (11:00 pm ET\, 4:00 am London)). \n\nConsensus\nA 25bp hike to 1.25%\, according to a Bloomberg survey of 52 economists\, all of whom expect a rate rise at this meeting\nActual\nHiked 25bp to 1.25% (uncollateralised overnight call rate)\, vote 7-2\n\nFull schedule and background: Bank of Japan Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 18\, 2026 \n\nThe Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18\, 2026\, in a 7-2 split vote that matched consensus but saw the yen weaken rather than strengthen. \nAll 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate from 1.00% to 1.25% on September 18\, 2026\, and around 93% see a further increase by January 2027. This marks a sharp shift from earlier surveys\, where only around 5% of economists expected a September move\, according to a poll cited by FinancialJuice. A genuine surprise would be the Bank of Japan holding rates steady\, or signalling that the pace of policy normalisation will slow\, which markets currently regard as unlikely given the near-unanimous consensus for a hike. \n← Previous Bank of Japan Rate DecisionNext Bank of Japan Rate Decision →\nThe Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its September 2026 monetary policy decision on Friday\, 18 September 2026. The Policy Board meets over two days (17-18 September)\, with “The Bank’s View” statement released on 18 September. As of June 2026\, the uncollateralized overnight call rate stands at 0.75%\, unchanged since December 2025. The September meeting is a non-Outlook Report meeting\, sitting between the July and October quarterly publications\, but may be pivotal if the July meeting did not deliver a hike and inflation data through the summer continues to support further tightening. \nBank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision: September 18\, 2026\nSeptember’s meeting is the sixth of eight scheduled Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings in 2026. It falls between the July Quarterly Outlook Report meeting and the October Quarterly Outlook Report meeting. While September does not produce a full updated forecast publication\, it can still be the meeting at which the Board decides to move rates if data and conditions support action. \nThe BoJ’s April 2026 decision was marked by a 6-3 vote with three Policy Board members favouring an immediate hike to 1.0%. The Bank’s leadership has consistently described real interest rates as “extremely low” and signalled a continued intent to adjust the “degree of monetary accommodation” in line with evolving economic conditions. The trajectory of Japan’s inflation and wages through the summer months will determine whether September or October becomes the decision point for the next hike. \nWhat to Expect\nBy September\, the Policy Board will have access to CPI data for July and August 2026. Japan’s core CPI has been tracking above 2% through 2026\, and the BoJ’s April forecast projected 2.8% core inflation for fiscal 2026. If summer data confirms this trend\, the Board has strong justification for hiking to 1.0%. If inflation eases meaningfully toward 2% or below\, the Board is more likely to hold and wait for the October Quarterly Outlook Report before making its next move. \nThe labour market will also be a key input. Japan’s job-to-applicant ratio has remained elevated\, and nominal wages have grown meaningfully following the 2026 spring shunto. The BoJ will review these data together with consumption and activity indicators to assess whether the positive wage-price cycle it has been awaiting is genuinely entrenched. \nGlobal conditions will influence September’s decision. The FOMC meets on 15-16 September\, the two days immediately before the BoJ’s 17-18 September meeting. A Federal Reserve hold or cut would be interpreted as a global disinflationary signal and could strengthen the case for the BoJ to hold at September\, while a hike would reinforce the case for action. The yen’s level heading into September will also be a factor: any further weakening would increase imported inflation and add pressure on the BoJ to act. \nRate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nRate\nVote\n\n\n\n\nApril 2026\nHold\n0.75%\n6-3\n\n\nMarch 2026\nHold\n0.75%\n8-1\n\n\nJanuary 2026\nHold\n0.75%\nMajority\n\n\nDecember 2025\nHike +25bp\n0.75%\nMajority\n\n\nOctober 2025\nHold\n0.50%\nMajority\n\n\nJuly 2025\nHold\n0.50%\nMajority\n\n\nJune 2025\nHold\n0.50%\nMajority\n\n\nJanuary 2025\nHike +25bp\n0.50%\nMajority\n\n\n\nMarket Impact Scenarios\n\nHold at current rate – A hold would be taken as data-dependent caution\, particularly if inflation data from July and August does not clearly support a hike. The yen may weaken modestly. The Nikkei 225 would benefit from yen softness. JGB yields would hold. Markets would immediately shift attention to the October Quarterly Outlook Report meeting as the next potential hike point. A hold at September with no change in forward guidance would be seen as neutral to slightly dovish.\nHike 25bp – A hike to 1.0% (assuming July held) would confirm the BoJ’s commitment to normalisation. The yen would strengthen meaningfully\, JGB yields would rise\, and the Nikkei 225 would likely sell off on yen strength and higher borrowing cost concerns. Global carry trade positions would face pressure. The press statement’s language about further hikes beyond 1.0% would be the primary market driver after the initial reaction to the rate move itself.\nHold with hawkish guidance – A hold accompanied by more explicit language about the conditions for a September or October hike would be taken as directionally hawkish without the immediate market disruption of an actual hike. Yen strengthening and JGB yield increases would be more modest than in a direct hike scenario.\n\nStatement and Press Conference\nAs a non-Quarterly Outlook Report meeting\, the September statement (“The Bank’s View”) will be shorter than the April or July reports. However\, it will still contain the Policy Board’s current assessment of economic and price conditions\, and any changes from the language used in prior statements will be closely analysed by market participants. The Governor will hold a press conference following the announcement. \nParticular attention will be paid to whether the characterisation of inflation changes between July and September: any upgrade from “broadly on track” to “sustainably above 2%” would signal that the Board is closer to the conditions it has set for further normalisation. Any reference to global risks\, including energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty\, would be taken as a signal for a potential hold or delay. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 decision\, immediately before the BoJ’s September 17-18 meeting\, providing critical context on the US-Japan rate differential.\nBank of England MPC Rate Decision September 2026 – The BoE’s September 17 decision\, on the same day as the BoJ meeting begins\, providing broader global context.\nBank of Japan Rate Decision July 2026 – The preceding BoJ quarterly decision on 31 July\, likely to determine whether September is a pivotal or routine meeting.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nIs September typically a significant meeting for the Bank of Japan?\nSeptember is not a Quarterly Outlook Report meeting\, which means it produces a shorter policy statement rather than the full updated economic projections published in January\, April\, July\, and October. However\, the Bank of Japan can and does move rates at any scheduled meeting based on data. In the current tightening cycle\, whether September is a hike or a hold will depend on the inflation and wage data available at the time of the meeting\, and on the Board’s assessment of global risk. \nWhen is the September 2026 BoJ decision announced?\nThe decision will be released on Friday\, 18 September 2026\, following the two-day meeting on 17-18 September. The announcement typically occurs around midday JST (3:00-4:00 am GMT)\, with the Governor’s press conference following in the afternoon. \nHow does Japan’s core CPI affect the BoJ’s timing of rate hikes?\nThe BoJ uses core CPI (CPI excluding fresh food) as its primary inflation measure\, targeting a sustainable rate of “around 2 percent”. The Bank has stated that it will continue to raise the policy rate as the economy and prices develop in line with its projections. If core CPI remains above 2% on a sustained basis\, driven by both cost-push factors (energy\, imports) and demand-pull factors (wages\, domestic services)\, the Board will feel confident that the conditions for further normalisation are met. A sharp fall in core CPI\, or evidence that the rise is entirely cost-push without wage support\, would justify a pause. \nFeatured image: Photo by Clement Souchet on Unsplash. \nResults: Bank of Japan Rate Decision\, September 18\, 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nPolicy rate\n25bp hike to 1.25%\n25bp hike to 1.25%\nHeld at 1.00%\n\n\nVote split\nNot formally forecast\, but near-unanimous economist expectation of a hike\n7-2 in favour of the hike\n6-3 hold at previous meeting\n\n\n\nThe Bank of Japan raised the uncollateralised overnight call rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18\, 2026\, exactly matching the consensus captured in the Bloomberg survey in which all 52 economists polled expected a hike. This is the policy rate’s highest level since 1995 and follows the previous increase only three months earlier\, a faster pace than the roughly six-month gap that preceded it\, according to CNBC. \nThe decision was not unanimous. Board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissented\, preferring to keep rates unchanged\, producing a 7-2 vote. The Bank cited a risk that inflation could deviate above its 2% target as the reason for acting now rather than waiting for the October Quarterly Outlook Report. This landed close to the “hike 25bp” scenario flagged in the preview\, though the two dissents added a more cautious tone than a unanimous vote would have shown. \nThe hike came against a backdrop of explicit pressure from Washington\, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly pushing for faster Japanese policy normalisation\, according to Bloomberg. Japan’s core inflation had actually eased slightly to 1.7% in August from 1.8% in July\, but policymakers judged the risk of inflation running persistently above target as the more pressing concern. \nMarket Reaction\nThe yen weakened rather than strengthened on the hike\, falling as much as 0.7% to around 157.1 per dollar\, its steepest one-day slide in weeks\, according to Reuters. Analysts attributed this to the split vote: two dissents suggested the Board may proceed more cautiously with further tightening than a unanimous decision would have implied\, tempering bets on a rapid follow-up move. HSBC’s chief Asia economist Fred Neumann said the dissents leave “lingering doubts” over how quickly Japan’s central bank will tighten further. \nJapanese equities rallied on the relief that policy would not turn more aggressively hawkish\, with the Nikkei 225 gaining around 1.5% on the day\, according to CNBC. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield slipped after erasing earlier gains\, even as the policy rate rose to its highest level since 1995. Reuters reported that global shares and bonds broadly dipped the same day as a wider push by central banks to contain inflation weighed on sentiment beyond Japan alone. \nAttention now turns to whether the BOJ delivers a further hike before its next Quarterly Outlook Report in October. A Reuters poll cited by Investing Live had economists expecting the policy rate to reach 1.5% by end-March 2027 and 1.75% by the second quarter of 2027\, though the split vote may push some forecasters to push back the timing of the next move. \nKey takeaways from the statement\n\nThe Policy Board voted 7-2 to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%\, with Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting in favour of a hold.\nThe Bank flagged a risk that inflation could deviate upward beyond its 2% target as the primary justification for acting now.\nThe move came only three months after the prior hike\, a faster cadence than the roughly six-month gaps seen earlier in the tightening cycle.\nThe decision followed unusually explicit calls from Washington\, including from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent\, for faster Japanese policy normalisation.\nGovernor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference is being watched for signals on whether the October Quarterly Outlook Report could bring a further hike\, given expectations from some economists for the rate to reach 1.5% by March 2027.\n\nWhat this means for your money now\nFor anyone holding yen-denominated savings or Japanese assets\, the rate rise itself did not deliver the currency boost some investors may have expected. A weaker yen despite higher rates means imports into Japan\, including energy and food\, stay expensive\, while it becomes marginally cheaper for overseas visitors and importers buying Japanese goods. \nInvestors in global funds exposed to the yen carry trade\, where money is borrowed cheaply in yen to invest elsewhere\, should note that further BOJ hikes remain on the table\, based on Reuters-polled forecasts for the rate to reach 1.5% by March 2027. Continued unwinding of these positions could still add volatility to global equities and bond markets in the months ahead\, even though today’s reaction was muted. \nUK and European savers with exposure to Japanese equities benefited from the Nikkei’s gain\, though currency-hedged versus unhedged fund performance will differ given the yen’s fall against the dollar.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/bank-of-japan-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260918T020000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260918T030000
DTSTAMP:20260918T132048Z
CREATED:20260826T033528Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260918T132048Z
UID:2267-1789696800-1789700400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:UK Retail Sales September 2026
DESCRIPTION:UK Retail Sales: +0.5% MoM\, +2.4% YoY (August 2026) (Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (2:00 am ET\, 7:00 am London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nActual\n+0.5% MoM\, +2.4% YoY (August 2026)\n\nFull schedule and background: UK Retail Sales. \nUpdated September 18\, 2026 \n\nUK retail sales volumes rose 0.5% month-on-month in August 2026\, far exceeding the consensus forecast of a 0.2% decline\, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics on September 18\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for August 2026 UK retail sales has not yet been published by Reuters or Bloomberg. The prior reading\, covering July 2026\, showed retail sales volumes fell by 0.5% month-on-month\, according to the Office for National Statistics\, marking the first monthly decline since April 2026 and following an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in June. Traders and analysts will be watching whether August data confirms this softening trend or rebounds\, with a surprise likely to be any reading showing growth stronger than 0.5% or a deeper contraction than economists broadly expect\, which would suggest weakening consumer demand ahead of the autumn. \nThe UK Retail Sales report for August 2026 is released on September 18\, 2026 at 7:00 am BST (7:00 am London time\, 2:00 am ET) by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The release covers retail sales volumes and values for August 2026\, the most closely watched monthly gauge of consumer spending on the high street and online. Full schedule and background: UK Retail Sales. \nWhat is UK Retail Sales?\nUK Retail Sales measures the volume and value of goods sold by retailers in Great Britain\, covering food stores\, non-food stores (such as clothing\, household goods and department stores) and non-store retailing\, which is mostly online. The ONS builds the figures from a monthly survey of around 5\,000 retailers\, adjusting for seasonal patterns and inflation to produce a “volume” measure that strips out the effect of price changes\, so it reflects how much people are actually buying rather than how much they are spending. \nMarkets watch this release closely because consumer spending accounts for roughly 60% of UK economic output. A run of weak retail figures can signal a slowing economy and add pressure on the Bank of England to consider interest rate cuts\, while stronger than expected spending can raise concerns about inflation staying sticky. \nThe headline figure is the month-on-month percentage change in sales volumes\, seasonally adjusted. Economists and journalists also watch the year-on-year change and a version of the data that excludes fuel\, since petrol price swings can distort the picture of underlying consumer demand. \nWhen is the August UK Retail Sales report released?\nThe ONS publishes the August 2026 retail sales bulletin on Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 7:00 am London time (7:00 am BST\, 2:00 am ET). The data is published on the ONS website as part of its scheduled release calendar and is free to access at the time of release\, with no embargoed press access for the general public. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 UK retail sales report had not yet been published at the time of writing. Forecasts from economists polled by Reuters and other data providers typically appear in the days immediately before the release. \nThe most recent published figures\, for July 2026\, showed retail sales volumes fell 0.5% month-on-month\, in line with market expectations at the time\, according to data compiled by Trading Economics. This followed a downwardly revised 0.7% rise in June 2026. On an annual basis\, sales were up 1.6% in July\, the smallest annual rise in three months\, down from 3.8% in June. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nRetail sales volumes\, month-on-month\n-0.5%\nNot yet published\n\n\nRetail sales volumes\, year-on-year\n+1.6%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nSterling could firm and gilt yields may edge up if traders see it as reducing the chance of a near-term Bank of England rate cut\nConsumers spent more than expected\, which could suggest the economy is holding up better than feared\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, as the figure would confirm the existing view of a gradually cooling consumer\nSpending is behaving broadly as economists expected\, so the picture for household finances stays much the same\n\n\nBelow consensus\nSterling could soften and traders may add to bets on a Bank of England rate cut\, according to commentary from analysts tracking UK data surprises\nHouseholds pulled back on spending\, a sign that cost-of-living pressures or weaker confidence are weighing on the high street\n\n\n\nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe Bank of England watches retail sales as one of several signals on the health of the consumer\, alongside wage growth and inflation. According to Trading Economics\, the July 2026 decline was the first fall in sales since April\, with non-food stores and online retailers pulling back after a burst of early summer promotions and hot weather had pulled demand forward into May and June. Food store sales held up better\, supported by warm weather and World Cup-related spending. \nThis volatility around weather and one-off events like major sporting tournaments makes it harder to read the underlying trend\, which is one reason economists tend to look at the three-month or annual comparison alongside the single month-on-month figure. With UK inflation still running above the Bank of England’s 2% target\, policymakers are watching whether consumer spending cools enough to ease price pressures without tipping the economy into a sharper slowdown. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and savings rates: Weaker than expected retail sales can support the case for Bank of England interest rate cuts\, which would eventually feed through to lower mortgage rates for borrowers coming off fixed deals\, but also lower returns on savings accounts.\nJobs and wages: A sustained slowdown in consumer spending can eventually filter through to retail and hospitality employment\, since these sectors depend directly on footfall and sales volumes.\nPrices: If shoppers pull back sharply\, retailers may respond with more discounting\, which can help cool inflation over time\, benefiting anyone doing a weekly food shop or buying big-ticket items.\nInvestments and pensions: UK-focused equity funds and pension holdings with exposure to retailers and consumer goods companies can move on the day of release\, particularly shares of major supermarkets and high street chains.\nThe pound: Sterling often reacts within minutes of the release against the dollar and euro\, since currency traders use consumer data to gauge the likely path of Bank of England policy relative to the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.\n\nRelated events\n\nBank of England interest rate decisions\, which weigh consumer spending data heavily when setting rates\nUK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation report\, published separately by the ONS\nUK labour market and wages data\, which together with retail sales gives a fuller picture of household finances\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is UK Retail Sales released?\nThe ONS publishes the release at 7:00 am London time (7:00 am BST)\, which is 2:00 am ET. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe data is published on the ONS release calendar and the main ONS retail sales statistical bulletin page. \nHow does retail sales data affect interest rates?\nThe Bank of England uses consumer spending trends\, alongside inflation and wage data\, to judge whether the economy needs looser or tighter monetary policy\, so a run of weak or strong retail figures can shift expectations for future rate decisions. \nWhat is the difference between the value and volume measures?\nThe value measure shows how much money was spent in cash terms\, while the volume measure adjusts for price changes so it reflects the actual quantity of goods bought\, which is why economists focus on the volume figure. \nWhen is the next UK Retail Sales report released?\nThe ONS publishes retail sales monthly\, typically around the third week of the following month\, so the next report covering September 2026 data is expected around mid-October 2026. \nResults: UK Retail Sales\, August 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nRetail sales volumes\, month-on-month\n-0.2%\n+0.5%\n-0.5% (July 2026\, revised)\n\n\nRetail sales volumes\, year-on-year\n+1.9%\n+2.4%\n+1.2% (revised down from +1.6%)\n\n\n\nUK retail sales volumes rose 0.5% month-on-month in August 2026\, comfortably beating the consensus forecast of a 0.2% fall from economists surveyed by Reuters and Bloomberg\, according to the Office for National Statistics. The reading marked a sharp reversal from July’s 0.5% decline and defied expectations of a continued slowdown in consumer spending. On an annual basis\, sales volumes rose 2.4%\, faster than the 1.9% pace forecast and up from a downwardly revised 1.2% in July. \nThe ONS attributed the rebound to stronger online shopping and department store sales\, with clothing and food retailers also recording gains. Fuel sales were the exception\, falling 1.3% from July as pump prices climbed amid renewed uncertainty in the Middle East linked to the Iran conflict. Warm weather and what commentators described as a brighter national mood were cited as supporting factors\, even as household energy bills continued to rise. The result landed closer to the upside scenario set out in the preview\, in which stronger than expected spending would suggest the economy is holding up better than feared. \nThe surprise strength came despite a more cautious backdrop from individual retailers. Primark reported flat underlying UK sales growth in its most recent quarter\, John Lewis Partnership widened its half-year losses\, and Next trimmed its sales growth outlook\, according to reporting from GB News. This divergence between the aggregate ONS figures and individual company updates suggests the rebound may be concentrated in specific categories rather than broad-based across the high street. \nMarket Reaction\nSterling edged higher against the dollar in the minutes after the release\, with GBP/USD rising to around 1.3366 from 1.3361\, according to FXStreet. The move was modest\, reflecting the fact that markets had already been repricing Bank of England expectations following the previous day’s interest rate decision\, when the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%\, with three members preferring a 25 basis point increase to 4%\, according to Sunday Guardian Live. \nThe stronger retail figures reinforced the slightly hawkish tone from the Bank of England\, adding to the view among traders that an interest rate cut is unlikely in the near term. The FTSE 100 had already risen 1.2% on Thursday\, driven mainly by the rate decision\, a pause in gilt sales and falling oil prices\, and equity moves on Friday were attributed more to these factors and global risk sentiment than to the retail sales print itself. Gilt yields remained low heading into Friday’s session\, with no immediate large move linked specifically to the retail data. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe stronger than expected spending figures\, combined with the Bank of England’s hawkish hold\, mean the near-term outlook for savers and borrowers has shifted slightly. Anyone hoping for an imminent cut to mortgage rates may need to wait longer\, since a resilient consumer gives the Bank of England less reason to loosen policy quickly\, while savers holding cash in easy access accounts continue to benefit from rates that remain higher for longer. Shoppers\, meanwhile\, face a mixed picture\, with rising fuel and energy costs offsetting the boost from stronger high street and online spending.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/uk-retail-sales-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260918T091500
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260918T101500
DTSTAMP:20260918T162256Z
CREATED:20260825T105410Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260918T162256Z
UID:2080-1789722900-1789726500@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Industrial Production September 2026
DESCRIPTION:US Industrial Production: +0.1% MoM industrial production\, +0.2% manufacturing output (August 2026); July revised to -0.4% (Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London)). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nActual\n+0.1% MoM industrial production\, +0.2% manufacturing output (August 2026); July revised to -0.4%\n\nFull schedule and background: US Industrial Production. \nUpdated September 18\, 2026 \n\nUS industrial production rose 0.1% month-on-month in August 2026\, below the 0.3% consensus forecast\, as the Federal Reserve also revised July’s reading down from growth of 0.2% to a 0.4% decline\, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.17 release published on September 18\, 2026. \nA consensus forecast for the August 2026 industrial production report has not yet been widely published ahead of the release. In its most recent report\, the Federal Reserve said industrial output rose 0.2% in July 2026\, matching manufacturing output growth of 0.2%\, after a 0.3% rise in June\, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.17 release. Total industrial production stood 1.1% above its year-earlier level\, with capacity utilisation edging up to 76.3%. Any August reading that deviates sharply from that recent trend\, particularly a contraction or a jump above 0.5%\, would count as a surprise and could shift expectations for factory activity and Federal Reserve policy discussions. \nThe US Industrial Production report for August 2026 is released on Friday\, September 18\, 2026 at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London) by the Federal Reserve Board\, under its G.17 statistical release. The report covers industrial output data for August 2026. Full schedule and background: US Industrial Production. \nWhat is industrial production?\nIndustrial production measures the physical output of factories\, mines and utilities across the United States. The Federal Reserve compiles the index from data on electricity used by industrial customers\, hours worked in manufacturing\, and physical unit output such as tonnes of steel\, barrels of oil and vehicles assembled. The index is set to a base of 100 in 2017\, so a reading of 103.0 means output is 3.0% higher than the 2017 average. \nThe release also publishes capacity utilization\, which shows what proportion of a factory’s\, mine’s or utility’s total sustainable output is actually being used. A rising utilization rate can signal that firms are running close to their limits\, which sometimes precedes new investment or\, if labour and materials are scarce\, upward pressure on prices. \nMarkets watch this data because it is one of the more direct\, “hard” measures of real economic activity\, in contrast to survey-based indicators such as purchasing managers’ indexes. Central banks\, including the Federal Reserve\, use it alongside employment and spending data to judge whether the economy is expanding\, stalling or overheating. \nWhen is the August 2026 industrial production report released?\nThe Federal Reserve Board publishes the G.17 release at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London time) on Friday\, September 18\, 2026. It is published on the Federal Reserve’s G.17 statistical release page. The Fed’s 2026 publication calendar places this release consistently in the third week of the month\, following the same monthly rhythm used throughout the year. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of this writing\, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 release has not yet been published. Forecaster surveys such as the Action Economics Forecast Survey and Trading Economics typically firm up in the days before the release\, once more monthly indicators such as manufacturing hours and vehicle assemblies are available. \nThe most recent published reading\, for July 2026\, showed industrial production and manufacturing output each growing 0.2% on the month\, following 0.3% growth in June\, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.17 release. Capacity utilization edged up to 76.3% in July\, which the Fed noted is 3.1 percentage points below its long-run average from 1972 to 2025. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nIndustrial production (MoM)\n+0.2%\nNot yet published\n\n\nManufacturing output (MoM)\n+0.2%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCapacity utilization\n76.3%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nRead as a sign the factory sector is holding up\, which analysts at Capital Economics have linked in recent notes to strength in AI-related manufacturing investment\nFactories and utilities produced more than expected\, suggesting demand for goods and energy remains firm\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, seen as confirming the existing\, gradual growth trend in the sector\nThe industrial economy is behaving broadly as expected\, neither accelerating nor slowing sharply\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCould add to concerns about softening manufacturing momentum\, a theme flagged in Trading Economics’ coverage of recent misses against forecasts\nOutput fell short of what economists expected\, which can point to weaker orders\, higher costs\, or one-off disruptions such as maintenance shutdowns\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities discussed by economists\, not predictions of the actual outcome. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nIndustrial output growth has been uneven through 2026. Data compiled by Haver Analytics show industrial production rose at a 4.0% annualised rate in the second quarter of 2026\, after a slower 1.1% annualised pace in the first quarter. Monthly moves have swung between a 0.7% to 0.9% gain in April 2026 and a 0.3% decline in March 2026\, according to Federal Reserve releases\, reflecting choppy demand for durable goods and shifting energy and mining output. \nManufacturing\, which makes up around 78% of the total industrial production index according to Trading Economics\, has been supported this year by investment tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centre buildouts\, a trend highlighted by IBISWorld and Capital Economics. At the same time\, tariffs on imported inputs and elevated oil prices have been cited as headwinds. The Federal Reserve is watching this data as part of its broader assessment of whether the economy can absorb its recent interest rate decisions without a sharp slowdown in output or jobs. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing rates: Industrial production does not move mortgage rates directly\, but a run of weak readings can add to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further\, which tends to pull down longer-term borrowing costs over time.\nSavings: If the data feeds into a weaker growth narrative and lower rate expectations\, savings account and fixed-deposit rates in the US\, and potentially globally as central banks watch each other\, could drift lower in the following months.\nJobs and wages: Factories\, mines and utilities employ millions of workers. A sustained fall in industrial output has historically preceded softer hiring in manufacturing-heavy regions of the US\, and by extension in supplier countries in Asia and Europe.\nPrices: Very high capacity utilization can be an early sign of price pressure\, since factories running near their limits may raise prices rather than lose orders. Conversely\, spare capacity tends to keep goods price inflation contained.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: Industrial shares and broader US equity indices can react to surprises in this data\, particularly manufacturing-heavy names. A weaker than expected reading can also weigh on the dollar if it strengthens expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts\, with knock-on effects for the pound and euro exchange rates against the dollar.\n\nRecent industrial production readings\n\n\n\nMonth\nIndustrial production (MoM)\nManufacturing output (MoM)\n\n\n\n\nMarch 2026\n-0.3%\nn/a\n\n\nApril 2026\n+0.9% (revised)\n+0.7% (revised)\n\n\nMay 2026\n+0.1%\n0.0%\n\n\nJune 2026\n+0.1%\n0.0%\n\n\nJuly 2026\n+0.2%\n+0.2%\n\n\n\nSource: Federal Reserve G.17 statistical releases and Haver Analytics coverage of the underlying data. \nRelated events\n\nUS retail sales\, which is released around the same time each month and offers a demand-side complement to this supply-side measure of output.\nThe ISM Manufacturing PMI\, a survey-based indicator published earlier each month that often foreshadows the direction of industrial production.\nThe next Federal Reserve interest rate decision\, since policymakers weigh industrial output alongside employment and inflation data when setting rates.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the August 2026 industrial production report released?\nIt is released at 9:15 am ET\, which is 2:15 pm in London\, on Friday\, September 18\, 2026. \nHow should I read the industrial production index?\nFocus on the month-on-month percentage change and the capacity utilization rate\, and compare both to their recent trend rather than looking at a single month in isolation. \nDoes this report move interest rate expectations?\nIt can\, particularly if it comes in far from consensus\, because the Federal Reserve treats industrial output as one gauge of overall economic momentum when deciding on interest rates. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe Federal Reserve Board publishes the G.17 release on its official G.17 statistical release page. \nWhen is the next industrial production report after this one?\nThe Federal Reserve typically publishes the following month’s data in the third week of the subsequent month\, continuing its established monthly schedule. \nResults: US Industrial Production (August 2026)\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nIndustrial production (MoM)\n+0.3%\n+0.1%\n-0.4% (revised from +0.2%)\n\n\nManufacturing output (MoM)\nNot separately published\n+0.2%\n-0.1% (revised from +0.2%)\n\n\nMotor vehicles and parts output (MoM)\nNot separately published\n+2.6%\nNot separately published\n\n\n\nIndustrial production rose 0.1% in August 2026\, short of the 0.3% gain that economists had pencilled in\, according to a forecast cited by Investing.com ahead of the release. The Federal Reserve’s G.17 statistical release for the month also carried a large downward revision to July: output originally reported as growing 0.2% was revised to a 0.4% decline\, based on more complete source data collected since the initial estimate. \nManufacturing output\, which accounts for the bulk of the index\, rose 0.2% in August after a downwardly revised 0.1% dip in July. Within manufacturing\, motor vehicles and parts output jumped 2.6% on the month\, one of the stronger contributions to the headline figure\, according to the Federal Reserve’s release. \nTaken together\, the report lands closer to the “below consensus” scenario flagged in the preview: the headline monthly gain missed the forecast\, and the sizeable downward revision to July suggests the factory sector’s momentum earlier in the summer was weaker than first reported\, even though August itself showed a modest rebound in manufacturing. \nMarket Reaction\nIndustrial production is a medium-impact\, backward-looking indicator\, and the release did not appear to trigger a sharp\, isolated move in equities\, Treasury yields or the dollar in reporting on the day. Investing.com’s calendar coverage for September 18\, 2026 noted the data was released alongside several scheduled Federal Reserve speakers\, which tends to dilute any single reaction to one data point. \nEven so\, the scale of the downward revision to July’s reading\, from growth of 0.2% to a contraction of 0.4%\, gives traders a somewhat softer read on the manufacturing backdrop than the prior report implied. Economists watching Federal Reserve policy typically weigh this kind of revision alongside labour market and inflation data rather than reacting to it in isolation\, so any effect on interest rate expectations is likely to show up gradually rather than in an immediate market swing. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook is largely unchanged for most households. A single month’s miss against consensus\, alongside a backward-looking revision\, is unlikely on its own to move mortgage rates\, savings rates or the pound\, euro and dollar exchange rates in a lasting way. Investors in industrial and manufacturing-heavy shares may see some short-term repricing as they digest the weaker starting point for the summer\, but the bigger drivers for borrowing costs and currencies remain the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming decisions on interest rates and the incoming jobs and inflation data.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-industrial-production-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260920T210000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260920T220000
DTSTAMP:20260921T122949Z
CREATED:20260825T105549Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260921T122949Z
UID:2082-1789938000-1789941600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:PBoC Loan Prime Rate September 2026
DESCRIPTION:PBoC Loan Prime Rate: Held at 3.00% (1-year) / 3.50% (5-year) (Monday\, September 21\, 2026 at 9:00 am CST (9:00 pm ET\, 2:00 am London)). \n\nActual\nHeld at 3.00% (1-year) / 3.50% (5-year)\n\nFull schedule and background: PBoC Loan Prime Rate. \nUpdated September 21\, 2026 \n\nThe People’s Bank of China held its Loan Prime Rate steady on September 21\, 2026\, keeping the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year-plus rate at 3.50% for a 16th consecutive month\, matching the unanimous consensus in a Reuters poll of 21 market participants. \nThe People’s Bank of China (PBoC) sets its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for September on Monday\, September 21\, 2026\, with the rate published at 9:00 am China Standard Time\, which is 9:00 pm ET on Sunday\, September 20 on the US East Coast\, and 2:00 am in London on September 21. The LPR is China’s benchmark for new bank loans and mortgages\, and it currently stands at 3.00% for the one-year tenor and 3.50% for the five-year-plus tenor. There is no press conference attached to the release; the National Interbank Funding Center simply publishes the two rates on the PBoC’s behalf. Full schedule and background: PBoC Loan Prime Rate. \nWhat is the PBoC and what does it decide?\nThe People’s Bank of China is the country’s central bank. Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England\, it does not hold a single headline policy rate set by a voting committee that meets on a fixed schedule with published minutes. Instead\, the PBoC’s main lever is the seven-day reverse repo rate\, a short-term rate used in its daily money market operations. Commercial banks then use that rate\, along with their own funding costs\, to submit monthly quotes for the LPR. \nEach month\, 18 to 20 designated commercial banks submit their proposed one-year and five-year-plus LPR quotes to the National Interbank Funding Center. The centre strips out the highest and lowest quotes\, averages the rest\, and rounds to the nearest 0.05 percentage points. The PBoC authorises the publication of the result\, effectively making the LPR a managed\, market-referenced rate rather than a rate decided by a committee vote in the way Western central banks operate. \nThe one-year LPR is the reference for most corporate and short-term household borrowing. The five-year-plus LPR is the key reference for mortgage pricing across China\, so it matters directly to homeowners and to the property sector\, which remains a significant drag on Chinese growth. \nWhen is the September PBoC decision announced?\nThe September LPR is set for release on Monday\, September 21\, 2026\, at 9:00 am local time in Beijing (9:00 pm ET on September 20\, 2:00 am in London on September 21). There is no accompanying statement\, dot plot or press conference. The PBoC does\, however\, publish a quarterly Monetary Policy Report that gives more detail on its thinking\, and its Monetary Policy Committee holds quarterly meetings that shape the broader stance feeding into the monthly LPR quotes. \nWhat to expect\nThe one-year LPR has been held at 3.00% and the five-year-plus LPR at 3.50% every month since June 2025\, according to BigGo Finance’s coverage of the August 2026 decision\, which described the hold as the 15th consecutive month without a change. The last actual cut came in May 2025\, when the PBoC lowered both tenors by 10 basis points (a basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point). \nAhead of the August 2026 decision\, a Reuters poll of 25 market participants found that every respondent expected both rates to stay unchanged\, according to Reuters reporting carried by WKZO. A specific published poll for the September decision was not available at the time of writing\, but analysts cited in that survey argued the PBoC has “no rush to cut policy rates” while banks’ net interest margins\, the difference between what banks earn on loans and pay on deposits\, remain close to record lows\, limiting room for further cuts. \n\n\n\nMeeting\nDecision\n1-year LPR after meeting\n\n\n\n\nMarch 20\, 2026\nHeld\n3.00%\n\n\nApril 21\, 2026\nHeld\n3.00%\n\n\nMay 20\, 2026\nHeld\n3.00%\n\n\nJune 20\, 2026\nHeld\n3.00%\n\n\nJuly 21\, 2026\nHeld\n3.00%\n\n\nAugust 20\, 2026\nHeld\n3.00%\n\n\n\nThe five-year-plus LPR has moved alongside the one-year rate at every one of these meetings\, staying at 3.50% throughout\, according to the PBoC’s own release schedule on the People’s Bank of China website. \nMarket impact scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nHold (both tenors unchanged)\nBroadly neutral for onshore equities and the yuan; seen as consistent with the “no rush to cut” stance analysts have described to Reuters\nBorrowing costs for households and firms stay exactly where they are\, and existing mortgage rates linked to the LPR do not move\n\n\nCut (one or both tenors lowered)\nWould likely be read as a signal that policymakers see growth weakening enough to justify fresh stimulus\, and could weigh modestly on the yuan\nNew and some existing mortgages and business loans would get cheaper\, but savers earning interest on deposits would see little direct change since deposit rates are set separately\n\n\nGuidance shift without a rate move\nWatched closely in the PBoC’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report and any signals around the reverse repo rate or reserve requirement ratio (RRR)\, the share of deposits banks must hold in reserve\nNo immediate change to loan costs\, but hints at whether cuts are more or less likely in the coming months\n\n\n\nWhat will the statement and press conference signal?\nBecause there is no press conference or statement attached to the LPR release itself\, analysts instead watch three things around each monthly decision: the level of the seven-day reverse repo rate\, which anchors bank funding costs and therefore their LPR quotes; comments from PBoC officials or the quarterly Monetary Policy Report about the reserve requirement ratio; and broader signals about the health of the property sector\, since the five-year LPR feeds directly into mortgage pricing. A cut to the reverse repo rate ahead of an LPR meeting is generally seen as the clearest advance signal that banks will lower their LPR quotes. Any dissent within the banking sector about margins being too thin to support a cut is not something formally disclosed\, unlike voting records at the Federal Reserve or Bank of England. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor anyone with a mortgage or business loan in China\, the five-year-plus LPR sets the reference rate that many banks use\, so a hold means no change to repayments this month\, while a cut would lower costs for new borrowers and for existing borrowers whose loans reprice against the LPR. Chinese savings rates are set separately by individual banks and are not directly tied to the LPR announcement. \nFor readers outside China\, the LPR decision feeds into the broader picture of Chinese growth\, which affects global markets in several ways. A steady or lower LPR alongside weak Chinese demand can weigh on commodity prices\, which in turn can affect inflation readings in the UK\, the eurozone and the US. The Chinese yuan’s moves around LPR decisions can also ripple through to other Asian currencies and\, at the margin\, to the pound\, the dollar and the euro\, since China remains a major trading partner for Europe and the US. Investors holding funds with exposure to Chinese equities\, or to companies that sell heavily into China such as luxury goods\, mining and auto manufacturers\, may see share prices react to signs of stronger or weaker Chinese stimulus. Pension funds with global or emerging-market allocations often carry some exposure to these swings\, even if indirectly. \nRelated events\n\nFull LPR schedule and history: PBoC Loan Prime Rate\nThe PBoC’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report and Monetary Policy Committee statements provide the fullest official commentary on the reasoning behind LPR moves\nChina’s monthly inflation (CPI and PPI) and trade data\, released in the days before each LPR decision\, are closely watched inputs into the PBoC’s thinking\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the September 2026 PBoC LPR announced?\nThe rate is due at 9:00 am China Standard Time on September 21\, 2026\, which is 9:00 pm ET on September 20 and 2:00 am in London on September 21. \nWill the PBoC cut rates in September 2026?\nA specific published poll for September was not available at the time of writing\, but the one-year and five-year LPRs have been held at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively for 15 consecutive months through August 2026\, and analysts cited by Reuters have said policymakers are in “no rush” to cut. \nWhat is the current Chinese Loan Prime Rate?\nAs of the August 20\, 2026 decision\, the one-year LPR is 3.00% and the five-year-plus LPR\, the main mortgage reference rate\, is 3.50%. \nWhen is the next PBoC LPR decision after September?\nThe LPR is normally set on the 20th of each month\, or the next business day if the 20th falls on a weekend or holiday\, so the following decision would typically fall in October 2026. \nWhere can I watch the PBoC LPR announcement?\nThe rate is published directly on the People’s Bank of China website and simultaneously reported by major financial data providers and news wires. \nResults: PBoC Loan Prime Rate\, September 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\n1-year LPR\nHeld at 3.00%\nHeld at 3.00%\n3.00% (August 20\, 2026)\n\n\n5-year-plus LPR\nHeld at 3.50%\nHeld at 3.50%\n3.50% (August 20\, 2026)\n\n\n\nThe People’s Bank of China left both benchmark lending rates unchanged on September 21\, 2026\, keeping the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year-plus LPR\, the main mortgage reference rate\, at 3.50%. This was the 16th consecutive month without a change\, according to Reuters reporting carried by Investing.com\, and it matched the scenario that markets viewed as most likely going into the decision. \nA Reuters survey of 21 market participants conducted in the run-up to the announcement found that every respondent expected both tenors to stay unchanged\, so the outcome landed exactly on the consensus scenario described in the preview rather than the alternative of a fresh cut. Citi analysts told Reuters they expected the PBoC to hold "amid a hawkish turn of global central banks"\, pointing to policymakers’ caution about narrowing interest rate differentials with other major economies rather than any sudden improvement in China’s domestic growth picture. \nThe hold extends a run that began in mid-2025 and leaves China’s property-linked five-year mortgage reference rate exactly where it has sat since May 2025’s cut. Chinese industrial output growth was running near 4.5% around the time of the decision\, with retail sales growth described as sluggish by VT Markets\, underlining that the pause reflects caution rather than confidence that stimulus is no longer needed. \nMarket Reaction\nBecause the hold was almost universally expected\, the immediate market reaction was small. AUD/USD\, often used as a liquid proxy for China-sensitive sentiment given Australia’s trade links to China\, ticked about 0.03% higher to around 0.7127 at the time of the announcement\, according to FXStreet. \nCommentary from VT Markets suggested traders were positioning for a period of consolidation in China-sensitive assets rather than a breakout in either direction\, noting that despite the pause\, the broader growth backdrop\, including subdued retail sales\, still points to the possibility of further easing later in the year if conditions weaken. No sharp moves were reported in Hong Kong or mainland Chinese equity benchmarks directly attributable to the LPR decision\, consistent with the outcome matching consensus. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook is unchanged: mortgage and business loan costs in China stay exactly where they were before the announcement\, and there is no new signal for UK\, European or US borrowers\, savers or investors beyond the broader\, already-known picture of a cautious PBoC balancing growth support against thin bank margins.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/pboc-loan-prime-rate-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260921T000000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260921T235959
DTSTAMP:20260921T202144Z
CREATED:20260902T132850Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260921T202144Z
UID:2551-1789948800-1790035199@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Is the Stock Market Open on Respect for the Aged Day 2026? TSE/JPX Hours
DESCRIPTION:NYSE and Nasdaq are closed on Monday\, September 21\, 2026 for TSE/JPX Holidays. \nFull schedule and background: TSE/JPX Holidays. \nUpdated September 21\, 2026 \n\nThe Tokyo Stock Exchange closed as scheduled on Monday\, September 21\, 2026 for Respect for the Aged Day\, while JPX’s derivatives night session ran a routine holiday trading session for index futures. \nNext TSE/JPX Holidays →\nThe Tokyo Stock Exchange (JPX) is closed on Monday\, September 21\, 2026 for Respect for the Aged Day\, a national public holiday in Japan honouring elderly citizens. No cash equities\, index futures or options trade on the exchange that day. Orders placed while the market is shut simply queue and are not executed until the exchange reopens. See the full TSE/JPX holiday calendar for the rest of the year. \nBecause Respect for the Aged Day falls on the third Monday of September\, and Japan observes a rule that inserts a one-off “Citizens’ Holiday” (Bridge Day) whenever a single business day sits between two public holidays\, the JPX will also be closed the following day\, Tuesday\, September 22\, 2026. This creates a rare three-day run of closures heading into the Autumnal Equinox on September 23. \nWhich markets are closed on Respect for the Aged Day 2026?\n\n\n\nMarket\nStatus\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nTSE/JPX equities\nClosed\nRegular hours are normally 9:00 am to 11:30 am and 12:30 pm to 3:30 pm JST\n\n\nJPX derivatives (futures and options)\nClosed\nIndex futures\, Nikkei 225 options and other JPX-listed derivatives do not trade\n\n\nNew York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq\nOpen (regular hours)\nThe US holiday\, Labor Day\, falls earlier in September\n\n\nLondon Stock Exchange (LSE)\nOpen (regular hours)\nNo UK public holiday coincides with this date\n\n\nEuronext\nOpen (regular hours)\nNormal trading across Amsterdam\, Paris and other Euronext venues\n\n\n\nIs the market open the day before and after?\nThe last trading day before the closure is Friday\, September 18\, 2026\, with regular hours. The JPX then remains shut for three consecutive sessions: Monday\, September 21 (Respect for the Aged Day)\, Tuesday\, September 22 (Citizens’ Holiday\, also called Bridge Day) and Wednesday\, September 23 (Autumnal Equinox Day). Trading resumes with normal hours on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026. There is no early close scheduled around this period; the exchange is either fully open or fully closed on each date. \nWhy do markets close for Respect for the Aged Day?\nRespect for the Aged Day was established as a national holiday to honour elderly citizens and recognise their contribution to society. It was originally fixed on September 15 but moved to the third Monday of September in 2003 under Japan’s Happy Monday System\, a policy designed to create long weekends by shifting certain holidays to Mondays. \nJapan’s Citizens’ Holiday rule adds a further wrinkle: when a single working day falls between two public holidays\, that day automatically becomes a holiday too. In 2026 this converts September 22\, sandwiched between Respect for the Aged Day and the Autumnal Equinox\, into an unscheduled market closure\, extending the break to three days. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nIf you hold Japanese shares\, ETFs or funds with Tokyo exposure through a UK\, European or US broker\, any order entered during the closure will simply wait in the queue and execute once the JPX reopens on September 24. Settlement of Japanese trades typically follows a T+2 cycle\, so a trade placed just before the holiday run could settle a few days later than usual. Dividend record dates and options expiries that would normally fall within this window are adjusted by the exchange to the nearest open trading day\, so check your broker’s notices if you hold Nikkei-linked derivatives. Domestic bank transfers and payroll processing in Japan also pause on public holidays\, which can matter if you are managing yen-denominated accounts or pensions with Japanese exposure. Cryptocurrency markets are unaffected\, since they trade continuously regardless of national holidays. \nRemaining TSE/JPX holidays in 2026\n\nCitizens’ Holiday (Bridge Day)\, September 22\, 2026\nAutumnal Equinox Day\, September 23\, 2026\nSports Day\, October 12\, 2026\nCulture Day\, November 3\, 2026\nLabor Thanksgiving Day\, November 23\, 2026\nNew Year’s Eve (Market Holiday)\, December 31\, 2026\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nIs the stock market open on Respect for the Aged Day 2026?\nNo\, the Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed on Monday\, September 21\, 2026\, along with all JPX-listed derivatives markets. \nIs the market also closed the day after?\nYes\, September 22\, 2026 is a Citizens’ Holiday (Bridge Day)\, and September 23 is the Autumnal Equinox Day\, so the JPX is closed for three consecutive sessions. \nWhat time does the Tokyo Stock Exchange normally close?\nOn a regular trading day the JPX operates from 9:00 am to 11:30 am and 12:30 pm to 3:30 pm JST\, split into a morning and afternoon session. \nWhen is the next TSE/JPX market holiday after this one?\nThe next closure is the Citizens’ Holiday (Bridge Day) on September 22\, 2026\, immediately followed by the Autumnal Equinox Day on September 23\, 2026. \nAre Japanese banks open on Respect for the Aged Day?\nNo\, Japanese banks observe the same national public holiday and are closed\, along with most government offices. \nNext TSE/JPX Holidays →\nResults: TSE/JPX Respect for the Aged Day 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nCash equities (TSE)\nClosed (scheduled)\nClosed\, no trading Monday\, September 21\, 2026\nClosed for the equivalent 2025 holiday\n\n\nDerivatives (Osaka Exchange\, JPX)\nClosed (scheduled)\nDay session closed\, but the night session ran a routine “holiday trading” session for index futures\nSame holiday-trading pattern used since 2022\n\n\n\nThe Tokyo Stock Exchange closed exactly as scheduled on Monday\, September 21\, 2026 for Respect for the Aged Day. No cash equities changed hands on the main board\, confirming the calendar entry published in advance by Japan Exchange Group (JPX). \nOne detail worth correcting from the standard holiday calendar view: JPX derivatives\, run through Osaka Exchange\, are not fully dark on this date. Since September 2022\, Osaka Exchange and Tokyo Commodity Exchange have operated a “holiday trading” arrangement that keeps the night session open for instruments such as Nikkei 225 futures and options even when the day session is shut for a domestic holiday\, because that overnight window overlaps with European and US trading hours. JPX confirmed on September 18\, 2026 that this holiday trading applied across all three closed sessions\, September 21\, 22 and 23. The cash market itself\, where most retail and institutional TSE-listed stock trades settle\, remained fully closed on all three days\, as reported separately by GuruFocus. \nMarket Reaction\nThere was no cash-equity price reaction to report because the Tokyo Stock Exchange simply did not trade shares on September 21\, 2026. Any headline moves in Japanese stocks that day reflect futures and options activity on Osaka Exchange’s holiday night session rather than the underlying cash market\, which stayed frozen at its September 18 close until trading resumed. \nGlobally\, the closure had the usual low-impact\, mechanical effect: London\, European and US markets traded as normal\, and any Tokyo-linked ETFs or ADRs listed abroad continued to price off the last available Japanese close plus overnight futures moves\, rather than a fresh cash session. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook for holders of Japanese equities\, funds or pension exposure is unchanged by this closure. Orders placed on September 21 or 22 simply queued for execution when the TSE reopened; anyone trading Nikkei-linked futures overnight could still act via the Osaka Exchange holiday night session\, but this does not alter the broader picture for savers or investors with Japan exposure through UK\, European or US brokers.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/tse-jpx-respect-for-the-aged-day-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260922T000000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260922T235959
DTSTAMP:20260922T182658Z
CREATED:20260902T124439Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260922T182658Z
UID:2524-1790035200-1790121599@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Is the Stock Market Open on Citizens’ Holiday (Bridge Day) 2026? TSE/JPX Hours
DESCRIPTION:NYSE and Nasdaq are closed on Tuesday\, September 22\, 2026 for TSE/JPX Holidays. \nFull schedule and background: TSE/JPX Holidays. \nUpdated September 22\, 2026 \n\nThe Tokyo Stock Exchange and Osaka Exchange closed as scheduled on Tuesday\, September 22\, 2026\, for the statutory Citizens’ Holiday (Bridge Day)\, with the Japan Exchange Group confirming the closure under the Act on National Holidays. \nThe Tokyo Stock Exchange (JPX) is closed on Tuesday\, September 22\, 2026 for a Citizens’ Holiday\, sometimes called a Bridge Day. This is not a fixed annual holiday. It exists only because September 22 falls between two other public holidays\, Respect for the Aged Day on Monday\, September 21 and Autumnal Equinox Day on Wednesday\, September 23. Under Japanese law\, a weekday sandwiched between two national holidays automatically becomes a holiday itself\, so trading\, clearing and settlement on the JPX are suspended for the day. Orders placed on September 22 will queue for the next session\, and investors watching Japanese equities should expect no fresh cash-market pricing until trading resumes. For the full year of closures\, see the TSE/JPX holiday calendar. \nWhich markets are closed on Citizens’ Holiday (Bridge Day) 2026?\n\n\n\nMarket\nStatus\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nTokyo Stock Exchange (equities)\nClosed\nCash equities\, ETFs and REITs do not trade\n\n\nOsaka Exchange (JPX derivatives)\nClosed\nNikkei 225 and other futures and options do not trade\n\n\nNew York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq\nOpen (regular hours)\nUS markets follow their own holiday schedule\n\n\nLondon Stock Exchange\nOpen (regular hours)\nNo UK holiday on this date\n\n\nEuronext\nOpen (regular hours)\nNo eurozone holiday on this date\n\n\nHong Kong Stock Exchange\nOpen (regular hours)\nCheck separately for any local observance\n\n\n\nBecause the closure is specific to Japan\, global investors holding Japanese equities\, Japan-focused ETFs or yen-denominated assets will see no price updates from Tokyo that day\, while positions listed in London\, New York or elsewhere continue to trade normally. \nIs the market open the day before and after?\nThe trading day before the Bridge Day\, Friday\, September 18\, 2026\, is a normal full session\, since Monday\, September 21 (Respect for the Aged Day) is itself a separate closure. The JPX is then shut for three consecutive weekdays: September 21 (Respect for the Aged Day)\, September 22 (Citizens’ Holiday) and September 23 (Autumnal Equinox Day). Regular trading resumes on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026\, with normal hours of 9:00 am to 11:30 am and 12:30 pm to 3:30 pm JST. There is no early close scheduled around this period; the JPX does not typically use shortened trading sessions the way some other exchanges do. \nWhy do markets close for Citizens’ Holiday (Bridge Day)?\nJapan’s Public Holidays Law states that if a weekday falls between two national holidays\, it becomes a holiday too\, a rule designed to give workers a continuous break rather than a single isolated day off in the middle of a working week. This provision has produced Bridge Days in various years whenever the calendar lines up this way\, and September is the month most likely to produce one because Respect for the Aged Day and Autumnal Equinox Day often sit close together. The JPX\, along with banks and most Japanese businesses\, follows the national holiday calendar\, so the exchange closes automatically whenever this rule is triggered. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nIf you hold Japanese shares\, an ETF tracking the Nikkei 225 or TOPIX\, or a fund with meaningful Japan exposure\, any order entered during the closure simply waits and executes at the next available price when trading reopens on September 24. Settlement of trades already executed before the holiday will be delayed by the closed days\, since Japan settles most equity trades on a T+2 basis and non-trading days do not count. Dividend payment dates and options expiry falling near this period may shift slightly to account for the closure\, so check the specific security’s calendar if timing matters. Bank transfers in yen may also be slower\, since Japanese banks generally close alongside the market for national holidays. None of this affects cryptocurrency markets\, which trade 24 hours a day regardless of any exchange holiday. \nRemaining TSE/JPX holidays in 2026\n\nAutumnal Equinox Day\, Wednesday\, September 23\, 2026 (closed)\nSports Day\, Monday\, October 12\, 2026 (closed)\nCulture Day\, Tuesday\, November 3\, 2026 (closed)\nLabor Thanksgiving Day\, Monday\, November 23\, 2026 (closed)\nNew Year’s Eve\, Thursday\, December 31\, 2026 (closed)\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nIs the stock market open on September 22\, 2026 in Japan?\nNo. The Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Osaka Exchange are both closed for the Citizens’ Holiday (Bridge Day)\, a statutory holiday created because the date falls between two other national holidays. \nAre US and European markets affected by this Japanese holiday?\nNo. The New York Stock Exchange\, Nasdaq\, London Stock Exchange and Euronext all follow their own separate holiday calendars and trade normally on September 22\, 2026. \nIs the Japanese bond market open that day?\nJapanese government bond trading and most domestic banking activity also pause for national holidays\, so banks and bond settlement in Japan are affected alongside the equity market. \nWhen does the JPX reopen after this holiday?\nTrading resumes on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026\, since September 21 to 23 form three consecutive non-trading days. \nWhen is the next TSE/JPX holiday after this one?\nThe next closure is Autumnal Equinox Day on Wednesday\, September 23\, 2026\, the very day immediately following the Bridge Day. \n\n\nResults: Citizens’ Holiday (Bridge Day) 2026\n\n\n\nMeasure\nConsensus\nActual\nPrior\n\n\n\n\nJPX trading status\nClosed (scheduled)\nClosed\, as scheduled\nOpen\, September 18\, 2026 (last session before the holiday cluster)\n\n\n\nThe Tokyo Stock Exchange and Osaka Exchange were closed on Tuesday\, September 22\, 2026\, exactly as required under Japan’s Public Holidays Law\, since the date sat between Respect for the Aged Day on September 21 and Autumnal Equinox Day on September 23. The Japan Exchange Group confirmed on its official calendar that September 22\, 2026\, is a holiday in accordance with Rule 3\, Paragraph 3 of the Act on National Holidays. There was no ambiguity or last-minute change to this closure\, as it is a statutory outcome rather than a discretionary decision by the exchange. \nThe last trading session in Tokyo before the three-day closure was Friday\, September 18\, 2026\, when the Nikkei 225 closed higher. Regular cash-equity and derivatives trading in Japan is set to resume on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026\, once the Autumnal Equinox Day holiday on September 23 has also passed. \nMarket Reaction\nBecause this was a scheduled\, law-mandated closure rather than a data release or policy decision\, there was no market reaction to interpret in the way there would be for economic data. Japanese equities\, JPX derivatives and yen-denominated cash instruments simply produced no fresh pricing on September 22\, 2026. Trading in other major centres\, including New York\, London and Euronext\, proceeded on their normal calendars with no disruption attributed to the Tokyo closure. \nTraders holding positions tied to the Nikkei 225 or TOPIX had to wait until the September 24 reopening for any new price discovery\, and any orders queued during the closure were executed against the first available price at that session. \nWhat this means for your money now\nThe outlook for investors is unchanged: this was an expected\, calendar-driven closure with no new information for markets to price. Anyone holding Japanese shares\, Japan-focused ETFs or yen assets should expect settlement and dividend timelines to reflect the three consecutive non-trading days from September 21 to September 23\, 2026\, with normal activity resuming September 24.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/tse-jpx-citizens-holiday-bridge-day-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260923T000000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260923T235959
DTSTAMP:20260902T124600Z
CREATED:20260902T124600Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260902T124600Z
UID:2526-1790121600-1790207999@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Is the Stock Market Open on Autumnal Equinox Day 2026? TSE/JPX Hours
DESCRIPTION:Tokyo Stock Exchange (JPX) are closed on Wednesday\, September 23\, 2026 for Autumnal Equinox Day. \n\nNext holiday\nSports Day\, October 12\, 2026\nRegular hours\n9:00 am to 11:30 am and 12:30 pm to 3:30 pm JST\n\nFull schedule and background: TSE/JPX Holidays. \nUpdated September 2\, 2026 \n\nThe Tokyo Stock Exchange (JPX) is closed on Wednesday\, September 23\, 2026 for Autumnal Equinox Day\, a Japanese national holiday marking the September equinox. No cash equity trading takes place on the TSE that day\, and orders entered on the holiday will simply queue for the next open session. Full schedule and background: TSE/JPX Holidays. \nThis closure sits inside an unusually quiet stretch for Tokyo. Respect for the Aged Day fell on Monday\, September 21\, 2026\, and a “bridge holiday” (a working day sandwiched between two public holidays that is also given as a rest day under Japanese law) followed on Tuesday\, September 22. Combined with the Wednesday equinox holiday\, Tokyo has three consecutive non-trading days before the market reopens. \nWhich markets are closed on Autumnal Equinox Day 2026?\n\n\n\nMarket\nStatus\nNotes\n\n\n\n\nTokyo Stock Exchange (cash equities)\nClosed\nNational holiday under Japan’s Act on National Holidays\n\n\nOsaka Exchange (OSE) derivatives\, regular session\nClosed\nStandard trading halted for the holiday\n\n\nOSE/TOCOM holiday trading (Nikkei 225 futures\, commodity futures)\nOpen (holiday trading session)\nJPX runs a limited holiday derivatives session on eligible non-business days\, according to the Japan Exchange Group\n\n\nNew York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq\nOpen (regular hours)\nNot a US holiday\n\n\nLondon Stock Exchange (LSE)\nOpen (regular hours)\nNot a UK holiday\n\n\nEuronext\nOpen (regular hours)\nNot observed in continental Europe\n\n\nUS Treasury and SIFMA bond market\nOpen (regular hours)\nNo US holiday recommendation applies\n\n\n\nIs the market open the day before and after?\nThe last trading day before the closure is Friday\, September 18\, 2026\, since the weekend\, Respect for the Aged Day and the bridge holiday remove September 19 to 22 from the calendar. Trading resumes on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at the normal opening time. The TSE does not use early closes: every listed holiday is a full-day closure\, and September 23 is no exception. Regular hours on trading days are 9:00 am to 11:30 am and 12:30 pm to 3:30 pm Japan Standard Time (JST)\, which is a lunch break built into the Tokyo session. \nWhy do markets close for Autumnal Equinox Day?\nAutumnal Equinox Day (Shūbun no Hi) has been a public holiday in Japan since 1948 and marks the point when day and night are roughly equal length. It grew out of an earlier imperial ancestral rite and is now a secular holiday when many people visit family graves and shrines. Because the exact date depends on astronomical calculations\, the government does not officially confirm it until the February before\, though the date is predictable years in advance. \nJapanese exchanges close for all national holidays rather than running with reduced staff\, unlike the partial “early close” convention used in the United States around some holidays. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nIf you hold Japanese shares\, ETFs tracking the Nikkei 225 or TOPIX\, or yen-denominated assets through a broker\, any order placed on September 23 will simply sit until the market reopens on September 24; nothing executes overnight. Settlement of trades already made before the holiday follows Japan’s standard T+2 cycle (trade date plus two business days)\, so the closure can push settlement dates back slightly. Dividend record dates and options expiry tied to the TSE calendar are adjusted around holidays by the exchange\, so check the specific instrument if timing matters. Currency markets\, including USD/JPY\, keep trading through the Tokyo holiday via other financial centres\, though liquidity in the yen can thin noticeably during Japanese public holidays. Cryptocurrency markets are unaffected\, since they trade continuously\, 24 hours a day\, seven days a week. UK and European investors with Japan exposure through funds will simply see no new Tokyo pricing that day\, and the fund’s net asset value calculation may use the prior close. \nRemaining TSE/JPX holidays in 2026\n\nSports Day\, October 12\, 2026 (closed)\nCulture Day\, November 3\, 2026 (closed)\nLabor Thanksgiving Day\, November 23\, 2026 (closed)\nNew Year’s Eve (Market Holiday)\, December 31\, 2026 (closed)\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nIs the stock market open on Autumnal Equinox Day 2026?\nNo. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed on Wednesday\, September 23\, 2026 for the national holiday. \nIs the bond market open in Japan on this day?\nJapanese government bond cash trading follows the exchange holiday schedule and is closed\, though this does not affect the separately operated US Treasury or SIFMA bond markets\, which trade as normal since it is not a US holiday. \nWhat time does the Tokyo market normally close?\nOn regular trading days the TSE closes at 3:30 pm Japan Standard Time\, with a lunch break from 11:30 am to 12:30 pm. \nWhen is the next TSE/JPX market holiday after this one?\nThe next scheduled closure is Sports Day on October 12\, 2026. \nAre Japanese banks open on Autumnal Equinox Day?\nNo. Japanese banks follow the same national holiday calendar as the stock exchange and are closed on September 23\, 2026.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/tse-jpx-autumnal-equinox-day-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260923T213000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260923T223000
DTSTAMP:20260922T123153Z
CREATED:20260825T130920Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260922T123153Z
UID:2171-1790199000-1790202600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Australia Labour Force September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Australia Labour Force: Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 11:30 am AEST (9:30 pm ET\, 2:30 am London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n4.5% (July 2026)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Australia Labour Force. \nUpdated September 22\, 2026 \n\nA consensus forecast for the September 2026 Australia Labour Force release has not yet been published by Reuters or Bloomberg. The most recent official reading\, for July 2026\, showed the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rising to 4.5%\, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This marked an increase from 4.4% in June\, when the rate had held steady\, suggesting the labour market may be softening gradually rather than sharply. A surprise for the upcoming release would be either a fall back towards 4.4% or below\, which would ease pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates\, or a jump above 4.6%\, which would sharpen expectations of near-term policy easing. \nThe Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Labour Force\, Australia report for September 2026 on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 11:30 am AEST\, which is 9:30 pm ET the previous day and 2:30 am London time. The release covers labour market conditions for August 2026\, including employment\, unemployment and participation. Full background and the release schedule are on the Australia Labour Force hub page. \nWhat is the Australia Labour Force report?\nThe Labour Force survey is Australia’s main monthly measure of jobs\, unemployment and participation in the workforce. The ABS surveys around 26\,000 households and asks whether people worked\, looked for work\, or were unavailable during a fixed reference week. From these responses it builds the headline figures markets watch most closely: the unemployment rate (the share of the labour force without a job but actively looking)\, the employment change (the net number of jobs added or lost)\, and the participation rate (the share of the working-age population either employed or seeking work). \nEconomists and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) track this data closely because it is one of the timeliest signals of how the economy is performing. A tightening labour market\, with a falling unemployment rate and rising wages pressure\, can keep the RBA cautious about cutting interest rates. A weakening labour market\, with rising unemployment and slowing job creation\, can support the case for rate cuts. The report also matters beyond Australia: it feeds into how global investors price the Australian dollar and Asia-Pacific growth expectations\, and it is watched in London and New York trading sessions as an early read on how tight the region’s labour markets remain. \nBecause the survey samples a rotating panel of households\, month-to-month figures can be volatile. The ABS also publishes trend estimates\, which smooth out this variability and are generally seen as a better guide to the underlying direction of the labour market than any single month’s seasonally adjusted number. \nWhen is the September Labour Force report released?\nThe ABS is scheduled to release the Labour Force\, Australia report covering August 2026 data on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 11:30 am AEST (9:30 pm ET\, 2:30 am London time). The report is published on the ABS website under Statistics\, Labour\, Employment and Unemployment. The ABS typically releases this survey in the third or fourth week of the month following the reference period\, though readers should always confirm the exact date on the ABS release calendar closer to the time. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of now\, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 Labour Force report has not yet been published. Economist surveys for Australian labour data\, typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg\, are usually released only in the days immediately before the report. Readers should check back nearer September 24\, 2026 for updated forecasts. \nThe most recent published reading is for July 2026. In that release\, the ABS reported that employment decreased by 15\,800 people to 14\,807\,200 in seasonally adjusted terms\, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.5%\, according to the ABS Labour Force\, Australia\, July 2026 release. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nUnemployment rate\n4.5%\nNot yet published\n\n\nEmployment change\n-15\,800 people\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus (stronger jobs\, lower unemployment)\nMarkets may pare back expectations of RBA interest rate cuts\, and the Australian dollar could firm\, according to analysts who track RBA rate pricing through swap markets\nA tighter jobs market could keep borrowing costs higher for longer\, though it also signals more people are finding work\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, with attention shifting to wage and inflation data ahead of the next RBA meeting\nThe labour market is behaving broadly as expected\, so little changes for borrowers or savers immediately\n\n\nBelow consensus (weaker jobs\, higher unemployment)\nMarkets may increase bets on RBA rate cuts\, and the Australian dollar could soften\nA cooling jobs market often points to slower wage growth and can eventually feed through to lower borrowing costs\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities discussed by market commentators\, not predictions of how the data or markets will actually move. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe RBA has spent recent quarters weighing a labour market that has cooled gradually from the multi-decade lows in unemployment reached in 2022 and 2023. Through the first half of 2026\, the unemployment rate has hovered in a narrow band between 4.3% and 4.5%\, based on ABS releases from March to July 2026\, suggesting a labour market that is softening only gradually rather than sharply. \nThe RBA uses labour market slack\, alongside inflation\, as a key input into its interest rate decisions. A jobs market that stays resilient gives the central bank more room to hold rates\, while a faster deterioration would add to the case for further cuts. Because Australia is a major commodity exporter and a bellwether for the broader Asia-Pacific region\, shifts in its labour market and interest rate outlook can also influence sentiment toward regional currencies and equity markets in Asia\, and are monitored by trading desks in London and New York as part of the overnight session. \nRecent Labour Force readings\n\n\n\nMonth\nUnemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)\n\n\n\n\nMarch 2026\n4.3%\n\n\nApril 2026\n4.5%\n\n\nMay 2026\n4.4%\n\n\nJune 2026\n4.4%\n\n\nJuly 2026\n4.5%\n\n\n\nSource: ABS Labour Force\, Australia releases. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nMortgages and interest rates: A weaker labour market report can raise expectations that the RBA will cut its cash rate\, which can eventually lower variable mortgage rates for Australian homeowners. A stronger report can do the opposite\, keeping mortgage costs higher for longer. \nSavings: Interest rates on savings accounts and term deposits tend to move in the same direction as RBA policy\, so a softer jobs market that raises rate cut expectations could eventually mean lower returns for savers\, while a resilient labour market could support higher rates for longer. \nJobs and wages: The report is a direct read on how easy or hard it is to find work in Australia. Rising unemployment can mean slower wage growth and more competition for jobs\, while falling unemployment often supports faster pay rises. \nInvestments and pensions: Australian shares and superannuation funds with exposure to domestic banks and consumer-facing companies can react to shifts in rate expectations triggered by labour data. Global investors\, including those in Europe and Asia holding Australian assets\, watch this data as a guide to growth momentum. \nCurrencies: The Australian dollar tends to be sensitive to labour market surprises because they shift expectations for RBA policy. A weaker than expected report can pressure the currency lower against the US dollar\, pound and euro\, while a stronger report can support it. \nRelated events\n\nReserve Bank of Australia interest rate decisions\, which weigh labour market conditions alongside inflation\nAustralian Wage Price Index releases\, which track wage growth alongside employment trends\nFull release schedule and background: Australia Labour Force hub page\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Australia Labour Force report released?\nThe ABS releases the report at 11:30 am AEST\, which is 9:30 pm ET and 2:30 am London time. \nHow do I read the unemployment rate figure?\nA lower unemployment rate generally signals a tighter labour market\, while a rising rate signals more people are out of work and looking for jobs. \nHow does this report affect interest rates?\nThe RBA considers labour market strength when setting its cash rate\, so a materially stronger or weaker than expected report can shift market expectations for future rate moves. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe ABS publishes the full report\, including data tables\, on its Labour Force\, Australia page. \nWhen is the next Labour Force report after this one?\nThe ABS publishes Labour Force data monthly\, so the following report\, covering September 2026 data\, is expected roughly four weeks later. Check the ABS release calendar for the confirmed date.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/australia-labour-force-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T033000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T043000
DTSTAMP:20260922T123426Z
CREATED:20260825T110225Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260922T123426Z
UID:2086-1790220600-1790224200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:SNB Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next SNB Rate Decision: Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 9:30 am CEST (3:30 am ET\, 8:30 am London). \n\nConsensus\nWidely expected to remain on hold at 0%\nPrior\nHeld at 0% (June 18\, 2026)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: SNB Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 22\, 2026 \n\nEconomists widely expect the Swiss National Bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0% at the September 24\, 2026 assessment\, having held at that level in March and June\, according to Trading Economics and newtrading.io tracking of the SNB’s four quarterly meetings. No formal poll consensus has been published for this specific meeting yet. Since June\, inflation has stayed close to the SNB’s forecast of 0.6% for 2026\, keeping policymakers comfortable with a prolonged hold. A surprise would be any move away from 0%\, either a cut back towards negative territory or a hike\, or a sharply revised inflation forecast signalling a change of stance. \nThe Swiss National Bank’s Governing Board announces its next interest rate decision on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026\, at 3:30am ET (8:30am London time\, 9:30am CEST local time in Zurich and Bern). The decision follows the Governing Board’s quarterly monetary policy assessment and comes with a published policy statement\, updated inflation forecast and a news conference. The SNB’s policy rate has stood at 0% since June 2025. Full schedule and background: SNB Rate Decision hub. \nWhat is the SNB Governing Board and what does it decide?\nThe Swiss National Bank is Switzerland’s central bank\, responsible for setting monetary policy with a legal mandate to ensure price stability while taking due account of economic developments. In practice this means keeping consumer price inflation within a range the SNB judges consistent with price stability\, generally close to but not exceeding 2% a year\, while avoiding unnecessary damage to growth and employment. \nMonetary policy decisions are taken by the three-member Governing Board. As of the most recent assessments\, the Board comprises Chairman Martin Schlegel\, Vice Chairman Antoine Martin and Member Petra Tschudin. Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England\, the SNB does not publish individual votes or minutes of debate in the same format; instead it releases a summary of the discussion roughly four weeks after each decision. \nThe SNB conducts an in-depth monetary policy assessment four times a year\, in March\, June\, September and December. Each assessment produces a rate decision\, a medium-term conditional inflation forecast and a press conference where the Chairman explains the reasoning to journalists. \nWhen is the September 2026 SNB decision announced?\nThe September assessment is scheduled for Thursday\, September 24\, 2026\, with the decision communicated to the public at 9:30am CEST (3:30am ET\, 8:30am London). The SNB publishes its policy statement and updated conditional inflation forecast at the same time\, followed by a news conference with the Chairman and other Governing Board members. A written summary of the internal discussion is typically released around four weeks after the decision\, in this case expected in late October 2026. \nWhat to expect\nThe SNB has held its policy rate at 0% at every assessment since the June 2025 cut\, including the meetings in September 2025\, December 2025\, March 2026 and June 2026. At the June 2026 assessment\, the Governing Board said monetary conditions were appropriate given that medium-term inflationary pressure had remained virtually unchanged since the previous assessment\, according to the SNB’s June 2026 press release. Economists and market pricing for the September 2026 meeting were not yet available at the time of writing; a consensus forecast has not yet been published for this specific date. \nThe table below shows the rate decisions from the SNB’s own published assessments over the past eight quarters. \n\n\n\nMeeting\nDecision\nRate after meeting\n\n\n\n\nJune 19\, 2025\nCut 25bp\n0%\n\n\nSeptember 25\, 2025\nHeld\n0%\n\n\nDecember 11\, 2025\nHeld\n0%\n\n\nMarch 19\, 2026\nHeld\n0%\n\n\nJune 18\, 2026\nHeld\n0%\n\n\n\nMarket impact scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nHold at 0%\nBroadly neutral for the Swiss franc\, seen as continuity given four consecutive holds\nThe SNB judges current inflation and growth conditions do not require a change\, keeping borrowing costs where they are\n\n\nCut\, potentially into negative territory\nFranc likely to weaken; Swiss and eurozone bond yields could edge lower on read-through\nThe SNB would be signalling concern about weak inflation\, a strong franc hurting exporters\, or a slowing economy\n\n\nHawkish guidance shift without a rate move\nFranc could firm modestly if the statement flags future tightening risk\nPolicymakers would be pointing to inflation moving back toward or above their comfort zone without acting immediately\n\n\n\nWhat will the statement and press conference signal?\nAnalysts typically focus on three things in the SNB statement: the updated conditional inflation forecast (which shows where the Board expects prices to head assuming rates stay unchanged)\, any language on the franc’s exchange rate\, and whether the Board leaves the door open to further cuts\, including a return to negative interest rates\, a tool the SNB has used before and referenced again as a possibility in 2025. Because the SNB does not publish a vote breakdown\, dissent risk is harder to gauge than at the Fed or the Bank of England; instead\, commentators watch changes in wording between one statement and the next for shifts in tone. The Chairman’s press conference remarks\, delivered roughly 30 minutes after the written statement\, often carry as much market-moving weight as the decision itself. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor UK and European readers\, the SNB decision matters mainly through currency and safe-haven flows. The Swiss franc is widely used as a haven asset\, so a surprise rate move can shift EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF rates\, affecting the cost of Swiss holidays\, imports from Switzerland\, and returns on any Swiss franc-denominated savings or bonds held by European investors. \nFor UK mortgage holders and savers\, the SNB decision itself has little direct effect on Bank of England policy\, but it is one of several central bank signals that traders use to gauge the global direction of interest rates. A widespread move toward rate cuts by developed-market central banks tends to filter through to lower gilt yields over time\, which can eventually feed into fixed mortgage rates and savings account returns\, though the Bank of England’s own decisions matter far more. \nFor eurozone households\, Switzerland’s proximity and trade links mean a weaker or stronger franc can change the price of Swiss goods and cross-border shopping\, and can influence the European Central Bank’s own thinking about currency stability at the margin. For pension funds and investors holding Swiss equities or bonds\, a rate change alters the relative attractiveness of Swiss assets versus eurozone or US alternatives\, and can move the value of any unhedged franc exposure in a portfolio. \nRelated events\n\nThe previous SNB assessment was held on June 18\, 2026\, when the Governing Board left the policy rate unchanged at 0%.\nThe next scheduled SNB assessment after September 2026 falls in December 2026\, following the bank’s usual March\, June\, September\, December pattern.\nSwiss consumer price inflation and labour market data released in the weeks before the September assessment typically shape the Governing Board’s updated inflation forecast.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the SNB September 2026 decision announced?\nThe decision is communicated at 9:30am CEST on September 24\, 2026\, which is 3:30am ET and 8:30am London time. \nWill the SNB cut interest rates in September 2026?\nNo consensus forecast had been published for this specific meeting at the time of writing; the SNB has held its rate at 0% at each of its last four assessments. \nWhat is the current SNB policy rate?\nThe SNB policy rate has stood at 0% since the cut announced on June 19\, 2025\, and was most recently confirmed unchanged at the June 18\, 2026 assessment. \nWhen is the next SNB decision after September 2026?\nThe SNB’s next scheduled monetary policy assessment falls in December 2026\, in line with its usual quarterly cycle of March\, June\, September and December meetings. \nWhere can I watch the SNB press conference?\nThe SNB streams its policy statement and news conference live on its official website\, snb.ch\, with a recording typically posted shortly afterwards.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/snb-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T033000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T043000
DTSTAMP:20260922T123702Z
CREATED:20260826T034356Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260922T123702Z
UID:2273-1790220600-1790224200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Riksbank Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Riksbank Rate Decision: Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 9:30 am CEST (3:30 am ET\, 8:30 am London). \n\nConsensus\nEconomists widely expect the Riksbank to hold its policy rate at 1.75% in September 2026\nPrior\nHeld at 1.75% (August 26\, 2026 decision)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Riksbank Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 22\, 2026 \n\nThe Riksbank’s Executive Board has kept the policy rate at 1.75% since it completed its easing cycle in mid-2025\, and the most recent decision on August 26\, 2026 confirmed that unchanged rate\, with the board noting inflation remained low and unemployment high. No formal Reuters or Bloomberg poll for the September 24 meeting has been located\, but market pricing and bank analysts\, including Handelsbanken\, point to a continued hold at 1.75%\, with some pricing a first hike arriving as late as the first quarter of 2027. A surprise would be any signal of an earlier hike or\, less likely\, a further cut if labour market weakness deepens. \nThe Riksbank\, Sweden’s central bank\, announces its next interest rate decision on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026\, at 9:30 am CEST (3:30 am ET\, 8:30 am London time). The decision follows the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting and comes with a full Monetary Policy Report setting out the Riksbank’s updated forecasts. Full schedule and background: Riksbank Rate Decision hub. \nGoing into this meeting the policy rate stands at 1.75%\, where it has been held since early 2026 after a run of rate cuts through 2025. There is no separate press conference time confirmed in the Riksbank’s published calendar for this specific date; the decision\, minutes schedule and press release are issued at the time above. \nWhat is the Riksbank and what does it decide?\nThe Riksbank is Sweden’s central bank and one of the oldest central banks in the world. Its primary task\, set by law\, is to maintain price stability\, which it interprets as an inflation target of 2% measured by the CPIF (consumer price index with a fixed interest rate). It also has a secondary objective of supporting balanced economic growth and high employment\, provided this does not conflict with the inflation target. \nDecisions on the policy rate are taken by the Riksbank’s Executive Board\, a group of board members who vote on the appropriate level of interest rates. If votes are split evenly\, the Governor’s vote decides the outcome. The Board normally meets eight times a year to set monetary policy\, publishing a rate decision and Monetary Policy Report at most of these meetings. \nBecause Sweden is a small\, open economy with its own currency\, the krona\, the Riksbank pays close attention to developments at the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve\, since large gaps in interest rates can move the krona sharply and feed through to imported inflation. \nWhen is the September Riksbank decision announced?\nThe announcement is scheduled for September 24\, 2026 at 9:30 am CEST (3:30 am ET\, 8:30 am London). The Riksbank typically publishes the policy rate decision\, an accompanying press release\, and a Monetary Policy Report with updated growth and inflation forecasts on the same morning. Minutes from the meeting are normally released roughly a week after the decision\, giving more detail on how individual board members voted and their reasoning. \nWhat to expect\nThe Riksbank left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at its most recent confirmed decision\, in August 2026\, having already held rates steady since the start of the year following three cuts during 2025\, according to the Riksbank’s own press releases. A consensus forecast for the September meeting has not yet been published; economists and markets typically firm up expectations closer to the decision date as fresh Swedish inflation and labour market data arrive. \nThe table below sets out recent confirmed Riksbank decisions\, sourced from the Riksbank’s own published materials. Rows for meetings not yet confirmed by the Riksbank have been omitted. \n\n\n\nMeeting\nDecision\nRate after meeting\n\n\n\n\nJanuary 2026\nHeld\n1.75%\n\n\nMarch 2026\nHeld\n1.75%\n\n\nJune 2026\nHeld\n1.75%\n\n\nAugust 2026\nHeld\n1.75%\n\n\nSeptember 2026\nDecision pending\nCurrently 1.75%\n\n\n\nMarket impact scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nHold\nRead as broadly neutral to mildly hawkish if guidance suggests rates stay at 1.75% for longer\, according to how markets typically respond to unchanged Riksbank statements\nBorrowing costs in Sweden stay where they are; the krona may hold steady or firm slightly if the tone is cautious about future cuts\n\n\nCut\nRead as dovish\, likely weakening the krona against the euro and dollar\nCheaper loans and mortgages for Swedish households\, but a weaker krona can push up the price of imported goods\n\n\nHike\nWould be a surprise given the current easing cycle\, and would likely be read as strongly hawkish\nMore expensive borrowing in Sweden\, but could support the krona and slow inflation further\n\n\n\nWhat will the statement and press conference signal?\nAnalysts will focus on the Riksbank’s forward guidance\, meaning the hints it gives about the likely path of rates over coming meetings rather than just the decision itself. Key questions include whether the Board still sees the current 1.75% level as appropriate for an extended period\, how it characterises the state of Sweden’s labour market (which the Riksbank has flagged as weaker than expected)\, and whether inflation is seen as durably close to the 2% target or still running below it. \nWatch also for any dissent among Executive Board members in the minutes\, published roughly a week after the decision\, and for commentary on the krona’s exchange rate\, since a persistently weak krona can complicate the inflation outlook by making imports more expensive. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor people in Sweden\, the policy rate feeds directly into mortgage rates\, particularly for those on variable-rate or shorter fixed-rate home loans\, and into returns on savings accounts. A hold at 1.75% means little immediate change to existing mortgage costs or deposit rates; a cut would gradually lower borrowing costs on loans and credit cards but also reduce what savers earn. \nFor UK and eurozone readers\, the Riksbank decision matters mainly through the krona’s exchange rate and as a signal of how smaller developed-economy central banks are handling the tail end of their rate-cutting cycles. A weaker krona can make Swedish exports cheaper and imports into Sweden pricier\, with knock-on effects for European supply chains and for investors holding Swedish equities or krona-denominated bonds. Pension funds and investors with exposure to Nordic markets should watch the tone of the statement for clues on the direction of Swedish bond yields and equity valuations over the following months. \nRelated events\n\nFull Riksbank schedule and past decisions: Riksbank Rate Decision hub\nSweden’s inflation (CPIF) data released ahead of each meeting typically shapes the Board’s decision\nLabour market and unemployment figures from Statistics Sweden are watched closely given the Riksbank’s comments on a softer jobs market\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Riksbank decision announced?\nThe decision is announced at 9:30 am CEST on September 24\, 2026\, which is 3:30 am ET and 8:30 am London time. \nWhat is the current Riksbank policy rate?\nThe policy rate has stood at 1.75% since it was held at that level in early 2026\, following three rate cuts during 2025. \nWill the Riksbank cut rates in September 2026?\nA consensus forecast has not yet been published\, so any move should be treated as a possibility rather than a prediction until closer to the meeting. \nWhen is the next Riksbank decision after September 2026?\nThe Riksbank normally holds eight monetary policy meetings a year; check the Riksbank Rate Decision hub for the confirmed date of the following meeting. \nWhere can I watch the announcement?\nThe decision and Monetary Policy Report are published on the Riksbank’s official website\, riksbank.se\, at the time of the announcement.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/riksbank-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T040000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T050000
DTSTAMP:20260922T123616Z
CREATED:20260826T034208Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260922T123616Z
UID:2271-1790222400-1790226000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Norges Bank Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Norges Bank Rate Decision: Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 10:00 am CEST (4:00 am ET\, 9:00 am London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\nHeld at 4.25% (August 12\, 2026)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Norges Bank Rate Decision. \nUpdated September 22\, 2026 \n\nA consensus forecast for Norges Bank’s September 24\, 2026 decision has not yet been published in a widely cited poll. The central bank held its policy rate at 4.25% at its August 12\, 2026 meeting\, saying inflation had run below its own projections but that it was too early to draw firm conclusions. Norges Bank did not prepare new forecasts at that meeting and instead pointed to Monetary Policy Report 3/26\, due alongside the September decision\, for updated guidance. A cut\, even a small one\, would count as a dovish surprise likely to weaken the krone\, while a signal of further tightening would be a hawkish surprise\, though most commentators see this as unlikely. \nNorges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee announces its September policy rate decision on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026\, at 4:00 am ET (9:00 am London time\, 10:00 am CEST in Oslo). The current policy rate stands at 4.25%\, and the decision will be published alongside Monetary Policy Report 3/26\, Norges Bank’s quarterly set of economic forecasts. Full schedule and background: Norges Bank rate decisions. \nWhat is the Norges Bank Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee and what does it decide?\nThe Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee is the body inside Norges Bank\, Norway’s central bank\, that sets the policy rate\, the interest rate at which banks can place overnight deposits with the central bank. Its mandate is to keep inflation low and stable\, close to a target of 2% over time\, while also supporting high employment and financial stability. The committee has five members\, including the Governor\, who currently is Ida Wolden Bache\, and its decisions are taken by majority vote\, though most recent decisions have been unanimous. \nThe committee meets eight times a year to decide on the policy rate. Four of these meetings\, including September’s\, are accompanied by a full Monetary Policy Report containing updated forecasts for growth\, inflation\, unemployment and the expected path of the policy rate over the following two to three years. A press conference follows each decision\, giving the Governor the chance to explain the reasoning behind the vote and answer questions from journalists. \nWhen is the September Norges Bank decision announced?\nThe rate decision is due at 10:00 am CEST (4:00 am ET\, 9:00 am London time) on September 24\, 2026. It will be published together with Monetary Policy Report 3/26\, which sets out the committee’s updated policy rate forecast\, known as the policy rate path. A press conference with Governor Ida Wolden Bache typically follows around 30 to 45 minutes after the written statement\, usually broadcast in Norwegian with an accompanying introductory statement published in English. A summary of the committee’s deliberations is also released\, giving more detail on the internal debate than the short policy statement alone. \nWhat to expect\nNorges Bank raised its policy rate from 4% to 4.25% at its May 2026 meeting\, and has held it unchanged at 4.25% at both the June and August 2026 meetings. According to the bank’s own account of the August meeting\, inflation had slowed and come in lower than projected over the summer\, even as the committee had earlier flagged the possibility that a somewhat tighter policy stance might still be needed\, according to Norges Bank’s August 2026 rate decision statement. The June 2026 Monetary Policy Report had pointed to a policy rate forecast just above 4.5% by the end of the year\, according to Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy Report 2/2026\, though the cooler summer inflation data has left room for debate over whether that path still holds. A consensus forecast from a major poll provider has not yet been published for the September meeting at the time of writing. \n\n\n\nMeeting\nDecision\nRate after meeting\n\n\n\n\nJanuary 21\, 2026\nHeld\n4.00%\n\n\nMarch 25\, 2026\nHeld\n4.00%\n\n\nMay 6\, 2026\nRaised by 25bp\n4.25%\n\n\nJune 17\, 2026\nHeld\n4.25%\n\n\nAugust 12\, 2026\nHeld\n4.25%\n\n\n\nMarket impact scenarios\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nHold at 4.25%\nBroadly expected given two consecutive holds and cooling summer inflation\, according to Norges Bank’s own August statement\nNorwegian mortgage and deposit rates stay where they are for now\, with attention shifting to the updated policy rate path in Monetary Policy Report 3/26 for clues on the next move\n\n\nCut\nWould be read as a signal that the committee judges inflation to be falling back towards target faster than expected\nCheaper borrowing in Norway\, a potentially weaker krone against the pound\, dollar and euro\, and a sign that other European central banks may follow a similar path if inflation trends are shared regionally\n\n\nHike\nWould surprise markets given the recent run of holds and the softer inflation data cited in August\nMore expensive mortgages and loans in Norway\, a likely boost to the krone\, and a signal that policymakers still see inflation risks as the greater danger\n\n\n\nWhat will the statement and press conference signal?\nInvestors and analysts will focus on the updated policy rate path in Monetary Policy Report 3/26 to see whether the roughly 4.5% end-year projection from June has been revised down in light of the cooler summer inflation figures. Any language about the balance of risks between persistent cost pressures and a softening labour market will be scrutinised for hints about the pace and timing of further cuts or holds into 2027. Dissent within the five-member committee has been rare in 2026\, so a split vote would itself be treated as a meaningful signal. The Governor’s introductory statement at the press conference usually gives the clearest steer on how the committee weighs these competing risks. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nFor Norwegian households\, the policy rate directly affects mortgage rates\, since most Norwegian mortgages track the policy rate closely\, and any change feeds through to monthly repayments within weeks. A hold keeps existing mortgage costs stable\, a cut would ease pressure on borrowers\, and a hike would push repayments higher. Savers with Norwegian bank accounts see the same relationship in reverse: higher rates mean better returns on cash deposits\, lower rates mean less interest earned. \nBeyond Norway\, the decision matters for currency markets. The Norwegian krone tends to strengthen when Norges Bank holds rates higher for longer relative to other central banks\, and weaken when it signals cuts\, affecting the cost of Norwegian imports and the value of Norwegian assets held by UK\, eurozone or US investors. Norway’s oil-linked economy also means its rate path is sometimes watched as a read on how commodity-exposed economies are handling inflation\, which can inform expectations for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England\, both of which are also managing the trade-off between inflation and growth. For pension funds and investors with exposure to Norwegian equities\, bonds or the krone\, the rate path shapes expected returns\, while global investors watching for divergence between Norges Bank\, the Federal Reserve and the ECB may use the decision to gauge the wider direction of developed-market monetary policy. \nRelated events\n\nThe previous Norges Bank decision was announced on August 12\, 2026\, when the rate was held at 4.25%.\nThe next scheduled Norges Bank decision follows the eight-meetings-a-year calendar; check the Norges Bank rate decisions hub for the confirmed date.\nNorwegian and eurozone inflation and labour market data released in the weeks before the meeting typically shape the committee’s updated forecasts in Monetary Policy Report 3/26.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Norges Bank decision announced?\nThe decision is due at 10:00 am CEST in Oslo on September 24\, 2026\, which is 4:00 am ET and 9:00 am London time. \nWill Norges Bank cut interest rates in September 2026?\nIt is not possible to predict the outcome. Norges Bank held its rate at 4.25% at both the June and August 2026 meetings after raising it from 4% in May\, and a consensus forecast for September has not yet been published. \nWhat is the current Norges Bank policy rate?\nThe policy rate has stood at 4.25% since the May 2026 meeting\, held unchanged at both subsequent meetings in June and August 2026. \nWhen is the next Norges Bank meeting after September?\nNorges Bank’s committee meets eight times a year; the confirmed date for the next meeting after September 2026 can be found on the Norges Bank rate decisions hub. \nWhere can I watch the Norges Bank press conference?\nNorges Bank publishes the statement\, Monetary Policy Report and an English introductory statement from the Governor on its official website\, with the press conference itself typically broadcast in Norwegian.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/norges-bank-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T043000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T053000
DTSTAMP:20260922T123529Z
CREATED:20260826T033907Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260922T123529Z
UID:2269-1790224200-1790227800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Germany Ifo Business Climate September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Germany Ifo Business Climate: Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 10:30 am CEST (4:30 am ET\, 9:30 am London). \n\nConsensus\nSeptember 2026 consensus not yet published; economists surveyed ahead of prior releases had expected roughly 87 to 88 points\nPrior\n88.8 (August 2026)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Germany Ifo Business Climate. \nUpdated September 22\, 2026 \n\nA consensus forecast for the September 2026 Ifo Business Climate reading has not yet been widely published by pollsters as of this writing. The prior reading\, released on August 25\, 2026\, showed the index rising to 88.8 points from 86.7 in July\, according to the Ifo Institute. That August print itself beat the 87.2 consensus tracked by market data providers\, with both current conditions and expectations sub-indices topping forecasts. A surprise in September would be a reading that breaks sharply from this recent upward trend\, either through a renewed decline in expectations or a sudden drop in current assessment\, which would suggest fading confidence among German firms. \nThe Germany Ifo Business Climate index for September 2026 is released on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 4:30 am ET (9:30 am London\, 10:30 am CEST) by the Ifo Institute in Munich. The survey covers business sentiment among roughly 9\,000 German firms in manufacturing\, construction\, wholesale\, retail and services\, gathered during the current month. Full schedule and background: Germany Ifo Business Climate. \nWhat is the Ifo Business Climate index?\nThe Ifo Business Climate index is a monthly survey-based gauge of how German companies view their current situation and their expectations for the next six months. Firms are asked to rate their present business conditions as good\, satisfactory or poor\, and to say whether they expect conditions to improve\, stay the same or worsen. The Ifo Institute converts these answers into balances\, which are then combined into three headline series: the overall Business Climate index\, a Current Situation sub-index and an Expectations sub-index. \nBecause Germany is the largest economy in the euro area\, the Ifo index is watched closely as an early signal for the wider eurozone economy\, not just for Germany itself. Since it is a survey of sentiment rather than a measure of actual output\, it tends to move ahead of hard data such as industrial production or GDP\, which is one reason investors\, the European Central Bank and analysts treat it as a leading indicator. \nThe index is set against a base value of 100\, calibrated to the average business climate of the year 2015. Readings above 100 broadly indicate that sentiment sits above its long-run average\, while readings below 100 suggest sentiment is weaker than typical. Movements from one month to the next\, and the direction of the current situation versus expectations components\, tend to matter more to markets than the absolute level. \nWhen is the September Ifo Business Climate index released?\nThe Ifo Institute is scheduled to publish the September 2026 reading on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 10:30 am CEST (4:30 am ET\, 9:30 am London time). The release is published directly on the Ifo Institute website\, alongside the Current Situation and Expectations sub-indices and a short commentary from Ifo economists. This date follows the institute’s regular monthly publication pattern\, which typically falls in the fourth week of each month. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of this writing\, a consensus forecast for the September 2026 reading has not yet been published; economist estimates typically firm up in the days immediately before release as banks and data providers circulate their projections. The most recent confirmed reading is from July 2026\, when the index stood at 86.6 points\, up from 85.7 points in June 2026\, according to the Ifo Institute. Ifo Institute data also show sentiment strengthened further into August 2026\, with reporting from IMEN Economics and InvestingLive pointing to a jump in the headline index that beat the level economists had pencilled in. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior\nConsensus\n\n\n\n\nBusiness Climate index\n86.6 (July 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\nCurrent Situation\nImproved alongside headline in July 2026\nNot yet published\n\n\nExpectations\nDrove the July 2026 improvement\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nRead as a sign German business confidence is strengthening faster than expected\, which could support the euro and European equities\nFirms feel more upbeat about current trading and the months ahead\, which can eventually translate into more hiring and investment\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLikely to have a limited market reaction\, since the print would confirm the existing trend rather than surprise it\nThe economy is behaving broadly as expected\, so little changes for borrowers\, savers or investors\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCould be read as a warning sign for the wider eurozone growth outlook\, weighing on risk sentiment and the euro\nGerman companies are more cautious than analysts thought\, which can be an early hint of slower growth ahead\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities based on how markets have typically reacted to Ifo surprises in the past\, not predictions of what will happen on September 24\, 2026. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nGermany’s economy has been closely watched through 2026 as businesses navigate energy costs\, weak export demand from China and the broader question of whether European Central Bank policy is loose enough to support a recovery. The Ifo Institute’s July 2026 data showed sentiment climbing for a second straight month\, with the improvement concentrated in expectations rather than current conditions\, according to the institute’s own commentary on the ifo Business Climate Index page. Reporting on the August 2026 reading described a jump that beat what economists had forecast\, with both the current conditions and expectations components moving higher\, based on coverage from InvestingLive. \nThat run of stronger prints matters because Germany’s industrial base\, particularly manufacturing and autos\, has struggled with weaker global trade and higher input costs in recent years. A steady improvement in the Ifo index would support the view that Germany is climbing out of a prolonged soft patch\, while a stall or reversal in September would raise fresh questions about the durability of that recovery. Policymakers at the ECB use survey indicators like this one\, alongside hard data\, to judge whether the eurozone economy needs continued support or whether growth is becoming self-sustaining. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing costs: A stronger-than-expected Ifo reading can nudge European bond yields higher if it feeds into expectations that the ECB will hold interest rates steady for longer\, which can filter through to mortgage pricing across the eurozone and\, to a lesser extent\, in the UK through cross-border rate correlations.\nSavings: If the data changes expectations for ECB policy\, it can shift returns on euro-denominated savings accounts and money market funds\, though the effect on any single Ifo release is usually modest compared with inflation or ECB meeting outcomes.\nJobs and wages: Business sentiment surveys tend to lead hiring intentions. A sustained pickup in the Ifo index has historically preceded firmer German labour demand\, which matters for workers and companies trading with Germany across the EU.\nPrices: Rising business confidence can eventually translate into firmer pricing power for companies\, a factor the ECB weighs when assessing underlying inflation pressure in the eurozone.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: European equities\, particularly German exporters\, and the euro itself can move on Ifo surprises\, since the index is treated as a proxy for the health of the continent’s largest economy. Investors holding European equity funds or pension exposure to the eurozone\, as well as anyone converting pounds or dollars into euros\, may see short-term currency swings around the release.\n\nRelated events\n\nGermany Ifo Business Climate index\, previous months (July and August 2026 readings)\nECB monetary policy decisions and press conferences\nEurozone flash PMI releases\, which are published shortly before the Ifo survey each month\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the September Ifo Business Climate index released?\nThe Ifo Institute publishes the index at 10:30 am CEST on September 24\, 2026\, which is 4:30 am ET and 9:30 am London time. \nHow should I read the Ifo Business Climate index?\nFocus on the direction of change from the prior month and whether the Current Situation and Expectations sub-indices are moving together or diverging\, rather than the absolute index level alone. \nDoes the Ifo index affect ECB interest rate decisions?\nThe ECB monitors business surveys like the Ifo index as one input among many\, including inflation and labour market data\, when setting monetary policy for the eurozone. \nWhere can I find the official Ifo release?\nThe Ifo Institute publishes the data directly on its ifo Business Climate Index page. \nWhen is the next Ifo Business Climate index released?\nBased on the Ifo Institute’s published schedule\, the following release is due on October 26\, 2026.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/germany-ifo-business-climate-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T083000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T093000
DTSTAMP:20260922T123228Z
CREATED:20260825T105959Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260922T123228Z
UID:2084-1790238600-1790242200@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Initial Jobless Claims: September 24\, 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nAround 235\,000 to 240\,000 new claims\nPrior\n196\,000 (week ending September 12\, 2026)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims. \nUpdated September 22\, 2026 \n\nEconomists have not yet published a firm consensus for the week ending September 19\, 2026\, but forecasts compiled ahead of previous releases have generally clustered near 235\,000 to 240\,000 new claims\, according to Investing.com’s economic calendar. The prior reading fell to 196\,000 in the week ending September 12\, 2026\, according to the US Department of Labor\, well below the previous week’s 206\,000 and below the 207\,000 forecast reported by Investing.com. A reading much above 250\,000 would surprise markets and suggest a faster cooling in the labour market than currently expected\, while another figure near 196\,000 would confirm resilience. \n← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims\nThe Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending September 19\, 2026 is released on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). The figures come from the US Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration and count the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given week. It is the most frequent labour-market data the government publishes\, and it lands every Thursday regardless of what else is happening in markets. For the full release schedule and background on this series\, see US Initial Jobless Claims. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for this specific week has not yet been published. Weekly jobless claims consensus figures from economists surveyed by outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg are typically only released a day or two before the report\, so this page will be updated once that number is available. \nThe most recent published data\, for the week ending August 15\, 2026\, showed initial claims falling to 206\,000 from a revised 212\,000 the previous week\, according to the US Department of Labor. That reading was better than the 210\,000 economists had pencilled in\, according to Trading Economics. Continuing claims\, which count people still receiving benefits after their first week\, stood at 1\,799\,000 for the week ending August 8\, 2026\, up 18\,000 on the week. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior\nConsensus\n\n\n\n\nInitial claims\n206\,000 (week ended August 15\, 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\nContinuing claims\n1\,799\,000 (week ended August 8\, 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\n4-week moving average\n204\,000\n—\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nPlain-English meaning\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nBond yields could fall\, dollar could soften\, stocks may wobble on growth worries\nMore people are losing jobs or struggling to find new ones than expected\, a sign the labour market is cooling faster than thought\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nMuted reaction\, markets stay focused on other data\nThe labour market is behaving roughly as expected\, no fresh signal for the Federal Reserve either way\n\n\nBelow consensus\nYields could rise\, dollar could firm\, doubts creep in about further rate cuts\nFewer people are filing for benefits than expected\, suggesting the jobs market remains sturdier than feared\n\n\n\nWhy it matters this week\nInitial claims have stayed historically low through the summer of 2026\, hovering in the 190\,000 to 210\,000 range even as other data\, including monthly payrolls\, has shown signs of a slowing labour market. The Federal Reserve has been watching this weekly series closely because it is timelier than the monthly jobs report\, and any sustained rise above 220\,000 to 230\,000 would likely be read as a signal that layoffs are accelerating rather than just hiring slowing down. Continuing claims near 1.8 million\, still elevated compared with the lows seen a few years ago\, point to people taking longer to find new roles once they are let go\, a basic mismatch between job losses and rehiring that policymakers weigh when deciding on interest rates. \nBecause this data feeds directly into the debate over how much further the Fed might cut its benchmark interest rate\, a run of weak reports can shift expectations for future Federal Reserve meetings\, which in turn moves everything from mortgage pricing to the value of the dollar against the pound and the euro. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\nIf jobless claims rise sharply and stay high\, it is often read as a sign the economy is slowing\, which can push the Federal Reserve toward further interest rate cuts. Lower rates over time tend to feed through to cheaper mortgages and other borrowing\, though not always immediately\, while savers may see interest rates on cash accounts drift lower too. \nA weaker labour market also matters directly if you or someone in your household is job hunting or worried about redundancy\, since rising claims usually show up first in the industries or regions where layoffs are concentrated. For pensions and investments\, sharp swings in this data can move stock markets in the short term\, though a single week’s figure rarely changes the bigger picture on its own. \nFor anyone holding dollars\, pounds or euros\, a weaker-than-expected reading tends to soften the dollar a touch against both\, while a stronger reading can do the opposite\, though the effect from a single weekly report is usually modest compared with monthly jobs data or Fed meetings. \nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the jobless claims report released?\nThe report is released at 8:30 am ET\, which is 1:30 pm in London\, every Thursday including September 24\, 2026. \nWhat counts as a big miss from consensus?\nEconomists generally treat a move of more than 15\,000 to 20\,000 above or below the consensus forecast as notable\, since weekly claims can be volatile due to seasonal adjustment quirks and one-off state-level reporting issues. \nWhen is the next jobless claims report?\nThe next weekly release follows on Thursday\, October 1\, 2026\, covering the week ending September 26\, 2026. \n\n\n \n← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-initial-jobless-claims-september-24-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T110000
DTSTAMP:20260922T123507Z
CREATED:20260825T110930Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260922T123507Z
UID:2088-1790244000-1790247600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US New Home Sales September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US New Home Sales: Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n607\,000 annualised units (July 2026)\, down 10.5% from June\, per Census Bureau/HUD\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US New Home Sales. \nUpdated September 22\, 2026 \n\nNo consensus forecast has yet been published for the August 2026 new home sales report\, due on September 24\, 2026\, as economists’ estimates typically emerge closer to the release date. The prior reading\, for July 2026\, showed sales falling 10.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607\,000\, according to the US Census Bureau and HUD\, well below the roughly 620\,000 pace that economists had expected\, according to Trading Economics. A surprise would be a reading that either confirms further weakness below 600\,000\, reinforcing concerns about affordability and high mortgage rates\, or a sharp rebound that suggests buyers are returning despite elevated borrowing costs. \n← Previous US New Home Sales\nThe US New Home Sales report for August 2026 is released on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) by the US Census Bureau\, working jointly with the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The release\, formally titled Monthly New Residential Sales\, covers sales of newly built single-family homes during August 2026. Full schedule and background: US New Home Sales. \nWhat is New Home Sales?\nNew Home Sales measures the number of newly constructed single-family houses sold during the month\, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A sale is counted at the point a deposit is accepted or a contract is signed\, not when the house is completed or the buyer moves in\, so the figure captures buyer demand earlier than data based on closings. \nThe Census Bureau collects the underlying survey data from homebuilders and combines it with building permit and completion records. Because the sample of newly built homes is relatively small compared with the resale market\, the monthly change carries a wide margin of error\, and single-month swings of 10% or more are common even when the underlying trend is stable. \nMarkets watch the release because new construction feeds directly into GDP through residential investment\, and because homebuilder behaviour is highly sensitive to mortgage rates. A pickup in New Home Sales alongside rising builder confidence often signals that lower or stabilising borrowing costs are starting to work through the economy\, while a slump can flag stress in housing affordability before it shows up in broader growth figures. \nWhen is the August New Home Sales report released?\nThe August 2026 report is scheduled for release on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm in London)\, published by the US Census Bureau and HUD on the Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales page. The Census Bureau typically confirms each release date a month in advance in the prior month’s report\, and this date has not been flagged as provisional. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs this page is being prepared well ahead of the release\, a consensus forecast from a Reuters or Bloomberg economist poll has not yet been published. Consensus estimates for New Home Sales typically appear in the days immediately before the release\, once forecasters have seen related indicators such as mortgage applications\, builder sentiment surveys and pending home sales for the same month. The most recently confirmed print in the series comes from the report covering July 2026 data\, published on August 25\, 2026\, which is the “prior” reading against which the August figure will be compared. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026 data)\nConsensus (August 2026 data)\n\n\n\n\nNew Home Sales (SAAR)\nSee August 25\, 2026 Census Bureau release\nNot yet published\n\n\nMedian Sales Price\nSee August 25\, 2026 Census Bureau release\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nRead as a sign of resilient housing demand\, which could support the view that the labour market and consumer spending remain firm; economists such as those at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) often link stronger sales to improved builder confidence readings\nMore people are agreeing deals to buy newly built homes than expected\, which can support construction jobs and materials demand\n\n\nIn line\nLimited market reaction\, since traders and the Federal Reserve are more focused on inflation and jobs data for setting interest rate policy\nThe housing market is behaving roughly as expected\, with no fresh signal for mortgage rates or the wider economy\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCould be read as evidence that high mortgage rates and stretched affordability are still weighing on buyers\, a theme regularly highlighted in NAHB and Mortgage Bankers Association commentary\nFewer new homes are being sold than expected\, which can eventually feed through to slower construction activity and softer materials and furnishings demand\n\n\n\nThese are possible interpretations\, not predictions. The actual market reaction depends heavily on what other data is released the same week\, particularly on inflation\, employment and Federal Reserve commentary. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nNew Home Sales sits alongside Existing Home Sales\, Housing Starts and Building Permits as one of the housing indicators the Federal Reserve monitors when assessing how its interest rate stance is affecting the wider economy. Housing is one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the US economy because most new-build purchases depend on a mortgage\, so changes in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate tend to show up in new home sales figures faster than in most other spending categories. \nThe National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales fell in July 2026\, with NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun describing home sales as having been “remarkably stable” despite elevated mortgage rates in recent months. Builders have continued authorising new construction\, with single-family permits running above year-ago levels according to the Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction release for July 2026\, even as housing starts fell back from June. Whether new home buyers are following that permitting activity through to signed contracts is exactly what the August New Home Sales figure will show. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: a stronger than expected reading can reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates for longer\, which tends to keep US mortgage rates elevated; a weak reading can support the case for rate cuts\, which would eventually flow through to cheaper mortgages in the US and influence rate expectations in the UK and eurozone too.\nSavings: if the data shifts expectations for Fed rate cuts\, savings account and money market fund rates in the US can move in tandem\, since banks reprice deposit rates in response to changes in the federal funds rate outlook.\nJobs and wages: homebuilding supports construction jobs\, and a sustained slowdown in new home sales can eventually reduce hiring in construction\, real estate and related trades such as flooring\, appliances and furnishings.\nPrices: the median and average sales price data in the same release gives a read on whether new-build home prices are rising or falling\, which feeds into how affordable housing is for first-time buyers in the US.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: homebuilder shares and housing-related exchange traded funds often react directly to this release. A surprise can also move the dollar\, since it feeds into the broader picture the Fed uses to set policy\, which in turn affects the pound and the euro through relative interest rate expectations.\n\nRelated events\n\nPrevious release: US New Home Sales\, August 2026 (July 2026 data)\nUS Existing Home Sales\, released monthly by the National Association of Realtors\nUS Housing Starts and Building Permits\, released monthly by the Census Bureau\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the August 2026 New Home Sales report released?\nIt is released at 10:00 am ET\, which is 3:00 pm in London\, on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026. \nHow should I read the New Home Sales number?\nLook at the seasonally adjusted annual rate compared with the prior month and the same month a year earlier\, and treat single-month moves cautiously given the wide margin of error the Census Bureau attaches to this survey. \nDoes New Home Sales affect Federal Reserve interest rate decisions?\nIt is one of several housing indicators the Fed reviews alongside inflation and employment data\, so it can influence rate expectations but rarely moves policy on its own. \nWhere can I find the official New Home Sales release?\nThe full release is published on the US Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales page at the time of publication. \nWhen is the next New Home Sales report after this one?\nThe Census Bureau typically releases New Home Sales roughly one month later\, covering September 2026 data\, with the exact date confirmed in the August release. \n← Previous US New Home Sales
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-new-home-sales-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260924T130000
DTSTAMP:20260922T123914Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260922T123914Z
UID:1332-1790251200-1790254800@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:COST Earnings September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next COST Quarterly Earnings: Thursday\, September 24\, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nEPS $6.43–6.55 (analyst consensus per MarketBeat/TipRanks)\nPrior\n$5.87 (Q4 FY2025\, reported September 25\, 2025)\nActual\nPending\n\nUpdated September 22\, 2026 \n\nAnalysts polled by MarketBeat and TipRanks expect Costco to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share of between $6.43 and $6.55 when it reports on September 24\, 2026\, up from $5.87 in the same quarter a year earlier\, according to Costco’s investor relations release. Expectations have firmed as Costco’s membership fee income and e-commerce sales have grown steadily through the year\, according to Yahoo Finance analysis. A surprise would be a print below $6.30\, which could reignite concerns about squeezed margins from tariffs and freight costs\, or a beat above $6.60\, which would support the view that high-income shoppers are trading up to bulk buying even as broader retail spending softens. \nCostco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) will report its fiscal fourth quarter and full-year 2026 operating results on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026\, after the market close. The release will cover the quarter ending in late August 2026\, completing Costco’s fiscal year 2026. Analysts expect earnings per diluted share of approximately $6.43 to $6.55\, according to consensus estimates tracked by MarketBeat and TipRanks\, representing year-over-year growth from the $5.87 per share reported in fiscal Q4 2025. \nWhat Is the Costco Earnings Report?\nCostco Wholesale Corporation operates the world’s third-largest retailer by revenue and the largest membership-only warehouse club chain globally. The company’s fiscal year runs from early September through late August\, with fiscal Q4 covering approximately June through August each year. Costco’s quarterly earnings reports include net sales\, comparable store sales (a closely watched metric of organic growth)\, membership fee revenue\, and net income. \nCostco’s business model is distinctive: the company earns a substantial portion of its operating income from annual membership fees rather than traditional retail margins\, which makes membership renewal rates and new member additions key indicators of business health. As of fiscal year 2025\, membership fee revenue reached $5.32 billion annually\, providing a predictable and highly recurring income stream. \nThe September earnings release carries particular significance because it covers both the quarterly result and the full fiscal year\, giving analysts and investors a comprehensive view of Costco’s annual performance. A press release and conference call with management typically follow shortly after the close of US trading on the release date. \nCOST Earnings: September 24\, 2026 Schedule\nCostco will publish its fiscal Q4 2026 results on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026\, after the market closes at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time\, with a conference call expected shortly thereafter. The fiscal quarter covers the period from approximately June through August 2026. \nFor context\, Costco reported its fiscal Q3 2026 results on May 28\, 2026. That quarter saw net sales rise 11.6% year-over-year to $69.15 billion\, comparable store sales increase 9.8%\, and customer traffic improve 2.4%\, according to the company’s investor relations release. The strong Q3 performance sets a high baseline for expectations heading into the final quarter of the fiscal year. \nThe fiscal Q4 FY2025 comparison period (reported September 25\, 2025) showed net sales of $84.4 billion (up 8.0% year-over-year) and earnings per diluted share of $5.87\, representing 11% growth from the prior year. Analysts tracking Q4 FY2026 are using this as their base period\, with consensus EPS forecasts of $6.43 to $6.55. \nWhy Costco Earnings Matter for Markets\nCostco is widely regarded as a proxy for consumer spending health among higher-income households. Its warehouse format caters to members who shop in bulk\, typically purchasing more discretionary goods per trip than at conventional supermarkets. Strong comparable sales at Costco signal robust consumer confidence among a key demographic segment\, whereas a miss can signal that even affluent shoppers are pulling back. \nBeyond consumer sentiment\, Costco’s results illuminate several structural themes that markets are tracking closely in 2026. First\, the impact of tariffs on imported goods: Costco sources a significant proportion of its merchandise internationally\, and any cost pressures from trade policy will likely appear in gross margin commentary or in management guidance. Second\, membership fee dynamics: any deceleration in new member growth or a decline in renewal rates would be a significant negative signal for the long-term revenue base. \nFor sector investors\, Costco’s results influence the broader consumer staples and discount retail universe\, including peers such as Walmart and Target. A strong quarter from Costco typically provides a positive read-through for the retail sector generally\, while any sign of consumer softening tends to weigh on the group. The September release also falls at the end of the summer trading season\, making it a useful signal for early back-to-school and pre-holiday spending trends. \nWhat to Watch For in Fiscal Q4 2026\nMarkets will focus on several key metrics in Costco’s September 24 release: \nComparable store sales (comp sales) will be the headline metric beyond EPS. Analysts are watching for continuation of the mid-to-high single-digit comp trends seen in recent quarters. Any deceleration below 6% would likely disappoint\, while figures above 10% would signal further strength in consumer spending at the warehouse level. \nE-commerce performance will also draw scrutiny. In fiscal Q4 2025\, Costco’s e-commerce sales grew 13.5% year-over-year. With digital adoption continuing across retail\, markets will be looking for sustained or accelerating online growth to offset any in-store traffic moderation. Membership renewal rates\, historically above 90% in the United States and Canada\, and any indication of how the company’s recent membership fee increase (announced in mid-2024) is affecting renewal behaviour\, will be key points in the conference call commentary. \nGross margin trends and any commentary on tariff-related cost pressures will be scrutinised given the trade policy backdrop. Investors will also listen carefully for full-year fiscal 2027 outlook guidance and capital allocation plans\, particularly regarding special dividends\, which Costco has paid several times in recent years. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 — The Federal Reserve’s September 16 interest rate decision will set the consumer credit backdrop against which Costco’s results are interpreted.\nUS Retail Sales September 2026 — Broad retail sales data for the same period will provide context for whether Costco’s performance is sector-specific or reflects wider consumer trends.\nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) September 2026 — The Fed’s preferred inflation measure will frame the broader consumer spending environment surrounding the Costco release.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat fiscal quarter does Costco’s September 2026 earnings cover?\nThe September 24\, 2026 earnings release covers Costco’s fiscal fourth quarter of 2026\, which runs from approximately June through August 2026. The release also includes full fiscal year 2026 results\, as Costco’s fiscal year runs from early September to late August each year. \nWhen will Costco report its Q4 2026 earnings?\nCostco Wholesale Corporation is scheduled to release fiscal Q4 2026 results on Thursday\, September 24\, 2026\, after the close of US trading at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time. A management conference call is expected to follow the press release. \nWhat are analysts expecting from Costco’s Q4 2026 results?\nConsensus EPS estimates for fiscal Q4 2026 are in the range of $6.43 to $6.55 per diluted share\, according to analysts tracked by MarketBeat and TipRanks. This compares with $5.87 per share in the year-ago quarter. Beyond EPS\, comparable store sales growth and membership renewal rates will be the key performance indicators market participants are watching most closely.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/cost-earnings-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260925T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260925T110000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104554Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104554Z
UID:1333-1790330400-1790334000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Friday\, September 25\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US University of Michigan Consumer SentimentNext US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment →\nThe University of Michigan will release the final reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index for September 2026 on Friday\, September 25\, 2026\, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The survey\, formally titled the Surveys of Consumers\, is one of the most closely watched gauges of household confidence in the United States. Consensus forecasts for September 2026 are not yet available at the time of writing\, as major polling services typically publish estimates in the week leading up to the release. The preliminary reading for September\, published on the second Friday of the month\, will provide the first indication of where sentiment stands. \nWhat Is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index?\nThe University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers is a monthly telephone survey of approximately 500 consumers across the United States. Respondents are asked about their personal financial situation\, their expectations for the broader economy\, and their assessments of buying conditions for large items such as homes\, cars\, and major appliances. The resulting composite index has been published continuously since 1952 and is regarded as one of the longest-running and most authoritative measures of US consumer confidence. \nThe survey produces two releases each month: a preliminary reading (the second Friday of the month) based on approximately 60% of the responses collected\, and a final reading (the fourth Friday) incorporating the full sample. The final release also includes sub-indices covering current economic conditions and consumer expectations. Long-run inflation expectations\, a component of the survey\, receive particular attention from Federal Reserve policymakers as an indicator of whether consumers believe inflation is becoming entrenched. \nThe index has a long-run average of approximately 84.5\, measured since 1952. Readings below 70 are generally associated with recessionary conditions or acute economic uncertainty. In May 2026\, the final reading fell to a record low of 44.8\, reflecting the severe pressure on household confidence from elevated consumer prices\, Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions\, and geopolitical uncertainty\, according to the University of Michigan’s report. \nConsumer Sentiment: September 25\, 2026\nThe September 25 release will represent the final sentiment reading for September 2026. This release falls at the tail end of one of the most turbulent periods for consumer confidence in the survey’s history. The index has been trading at record or near-record lows throughout 2026\, driven by high fuel prices\, persistent goods inflation\, and household concern about the economic outlook. \nConsensus estimates for the September 2026 final release are not yet available. Market expectations will be shaped by the preliminary reading (due on September 11\, 2026)\, developments in energy markets\, retail price trends\, and any significant shifts in the labour market between now and the release. The trajectory of mortgage rates\, gasoline prices\, and any easing or worsening of geopolitical tensions will be the primary determinants of whether confidence begins to recover from its historic lows. \nThe FOMC Rate Decision on September 16\, 2026 will also influence sentiment heading into the final reading\, as any shift in the Fed’s stance on rates will directly affect household borrowing costs and the financial outlook for consumers. A more dovish signal from the Fed could provide a modest confidence boost ahead of the September 25 survey completion. \nWhy This Release Matters\nConsumer confidence is a leading indicator of household spending\, which accounts for approximately 70% of US gross domestic product. A sustained decline in sentiment typically precedes a pullback in discretionary spending\, and the record-low readings of 2026 have raised concerns about the resilience of the consumer sector. Markets monitor the UMich index alongside the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index as a real-time gauge of how households are reacting to macro conditions. \nThe inflation expectations components of the survey carry special weight for the Federal Reserve. Long-run inflation expectations that become unanchored — that is\, move materially above 2.5% — could prompt a more hawkish response from the FOMC\, even if headline inflation appears to be moderating. Conversely\, declining expectations signal that consumers believe price pressures are temporary\, giving the Fed more flexibility to ease policy. The September 2026 reading will therefore feed directly into the debate about when and how aggressively the Fed moves toward rate cuts. \nFor equity markets\, the index provides insight into consumer-facing sectors. Retailers\, travel companies\, restaurant chains\, and auto manufacturers tend to react most directly to sentiment readings\, as these industries are most sensitive to discretionary spending decisions. The August 2026 UMich reading will provide the most recent context by the time markets prepare for the September survey. \nWhat to Watch For\n\nAbove consensus — A recovery in the headline index above recent lows would signal that household confidence is beginning to stabilise. A move toward 50 or higher would be seen as meaningfully positive for consumer-facing equities and could shift expectations about the pace of economic recovery. Long-run inflation expectations declining toward 3% would be broadly welcomed by the Fed.\nIn line with consensus — A reading matching the preliminary estimate would confirm the trend without providing a new directional impulse. Markets would focus on the inflation expectations sub-indices and any differences between the current conditions and future expectations components.\nBelow consensus — A deterioration from already historic lows would raise recession concerns and weigh on consumer discretionary equities. If accompanied by rising long-run inflation expectations\, it would present the Fed with a difficult stagflationary signal.\n\nHistorical Context\n\n\n\nRelease Date\nReference Month\nIndex Reading\nChange\n\n\n\n\nMay 30\, 2026\nMay 2026\n44.8\n-5.0\n\n\nApril 25\, 2026\nApril 2026\n49.8\n—\n\n\nJanuary 30\, 2026\nJanuary 2026\n57.3\n+0.9\n\n\n\nSource: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Long-run average: 84.5. All-time high: 111.4 (January 2000). All-time low: 44.8 (May 2026). \nMarket Positioning\nConsumer sentiment has been under sustained downward pressure throughout 2026\, with the index setting successive record lows. The primary drivers identified by University of Michigan researchers are concerns about energy prices (driven in part by Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions)\, the ongoing elevated cost of essential goods\, and uncertainty about the economic outlook. As of early June 2026\, the index stands approximately 47% below its long-run average\, reflecting conditions comparable to the depths of the 2008-2009 financial crisis\, though for different underlying reasons. \nAny meaningful improvement in energy prices\, a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve\, or easing of geopolitical tensions could provide the catalyst for a sentiment recovery between now and September. Conversely\, a further deterioration in conditions would test the floor of the index further. The US CPI Report September 2026 will be released the week before this final reading and will shape expectations significantly. \nRelated Events This Week\n\nUS CPI Report September 2026 — Inflation data released the week before will directly influence what consumers tell the UMich survey about price pressures and inflation expectations.\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 — The Federal Reserve’s September 16 policy decision on interest rates will affect household borrowing conditions and may shift the mood heading into the final survey days.\nUS Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) September 2026 — The PCE data\, released the same week\, will show actual consumer spending alongside sentiment\, providing a test of whether low confidence is translating into spending restraint.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat does the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measure?\nThe index measures household perceptions of their personal financial situation\, current buying conditions\, and expectations about the broader economy over the next year and five years. Based on monthly telephone surveys of approximately 500 US consumers\, it has been published continuously since 1952 and is one of the most widely cited consumer confidence measures globally. \nWhen is the September 2026 final reading released?\nThe final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September 2026 is scheduled for Friday\, September 25\, 2026\, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. A preliminary reading will be published on Friday\, September 11\, 2026\, giving markets an early indication of the month’s trend. \nHow does consumer sentiment affect financial markets?\nA strong sentiment reading typically supports consumer discretionary equities — retailers\, restaurants\, travel\, and automotive sectors — while a weak reading tends to weigh on these stocks and may support bond prices as investors price in slower economic growth. The Federal Reserve also monitors the survey’s inflation expectations sub-components closely: rising long-run expectations signal entrenched inflation concerns and may influence the pace of monetary policy decisions.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260929T003000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260929T013000
DTSTAMP:20260825T104556Z
CREATED:20260605T060000Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T104556Z
UID:1248-1790641800-1790645400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:RBA Rate Decision September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next RBA Rate Decision: Tuesday\, September 29\, 2026 at 2:30 pm AEST (12:30 am ET\, 5:30 am London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nActual\nPending\n\nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous RBA Rate DecisionNext RBA Rate Decision →\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its September 2026 interest rate decision on Tuesday\, 29 September 2026\, at 2:30 pm AEST. The Monetary Policy Board meets over two days (28-29 September)\, with the outcome published on the second day\, followed by a press conference at 3:30 pm. The September meeting is a regular decision meeting\, coming between the August quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and the November SMP. As of May 2026\, the cash rate target is 4.35%. \nRBA Rate Decision: September 29\, 2026\nThe September meeting is the sixth Monetary Policy Board decision of 2026\, sitting between the August and November quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy meetings. At this stage in the hiking cycle\, the Board will be assessing whether the three rate rises delivered in February\, March\, and May 2026 have been sufficient to cool inflation\, or whether additional tightening is required. \nThe RBA has been navigating a challenging inflation environment in 2026. Services inflation has remained elevated due to labour market tightness\, while energy and food prices have been pushed higher by the Middle East conflict. The May 2026 hike was delivered in an 8-1 vote\, with the Board citing the need to bring underlying inflation back toward the 2-3% target band on a sustained basis. Since then\, the Board has had the benefit of additional data from the June quarter CPI release and the August SMP to assess whether the hiking cycle is complete. \nThe decision will be announced at 2:30 pm AEST on Tuesday\, 29 September 2026\, followed by a press conference at 3:30 pm AEST. \nWhat to Expect\nThe key indicator the Board will be watching ahead of September is the trimmed mean CPI for the September quarter\, which will not be available until late October\, after the September meeting. However\, the Board will have access to monthly CPI indicator data from the ABS\, which provides a more timely\, if less precise\, read on underlying inflation. If monthly indicators for July and August show continued moderation\, the Board is more likely to hold in September. If they show a re-acceleration\, a further hike becomes more credible. \nLabour market conditions remain central. The RBA has repeatedly highlighted the role of wages growth in sustaining services inflation. Data on employment\, unemployment\, and the Wage Price Index published before September will inform the Board’s assessment. Any sharp deterioration in the labour market\, such as a significant rise in unemployment\, would change the calculus significantly\, reducing the need for further rate hikes. \nThe global backdrop matters considerably for the RBA. China’s economic performance\, commodity prices (particularly iron ore and coal)\, and the path of the US Federal Reserve’s policy rate all influence Australian financial conditions and the Board’s decision-making. The FOMC decision on 16 September (the day before the BoE’s September meeting) will provide an important read on global monetary conditions just two weeks before the RBA’s September decision. \nCash Rate Decision History\n\n\n\nDate\nDecision\nRate\nVote\n\n\n\n\nMay 2026\nHike +25bp\n4.35%\n8-1\n\n\nMarch 2026\nHike +25bp\n4.10%\nMajority\n\n\nFebruary 2026\nHike +25bp\n3.85%\nMajority\n\n\nNovember 2025\nHold\n3.60%\nMajority\n\n\nSeptember 2025\nHold\n3.60%\nMajority\n\n\nAugust 2025\nCut 25bp\n3.60%\nMajority\n\n\nMay 2025\nCut 25bp\n3.85%\nMajority\n\n\nFebruary 2025\nCut 25bp\n4.10%\nMajority\n\n\n\nMarket Impact Scenarios\n\nHold at 4.35% (base case) – A hold is the most likely outcome if inflation data shows continued moderation. AUD would hold steady or weaken slightly as markets price in an eventual pivot toward cuts. The ASX 200 could rally modestly\, particularly in property and consumer discretionary sectors. Bond yields would hold steady or fall slightly on the shorter end of the curve if the statement signals that the hiking cycle has ended.\nHike 25bp to 4.60% – A fourth consecutive hike would signal that the Board remains concerned about inflation persistence. AUD would strengthen 0.5-1.0% against the US dollar. Bond yields would rise. The ASX 200 would likely fall\, with highly indebted Australian households particularly sensitive to further rate increases at this stage of the cycle. Consumer confidence and housing markets would both come under pressure.\nCut 25bp to 4.10% – A cut in September would only occur if there is strong evidence that inflation has fallen sharply and the economy is slowing meaningfully. This would be a significant surprise and would require a material deterioration in economic data over the July-August period. AUD would fall sharply. Bond prices would rally across the curve.\n\nStatement and Press Conference\nThe Governor will hold a press conference at 3:30 pm AEST on 29 September 2026 following the rate announcement. As a non-SMP meeting\, there will be no updated set of economic forecasts published alongside the decision. The post-decision statement will contain the Board’s current assessment of inflation\, growth\, and labour market conditions\, and will include language indicating the Board’s inclination on future policy moves. \nThe September meeting minutes\, released two weeks after the decision\, will provide detail on the range of views within the Board and any changes in the balance of opinion toward future tightening or easing. Markets will also watch closely for any indication that the Board is beginning to discuss conditions under which it would consider cuts\, rather than further hikes. \nRelated Events\n\nFOMC Rate Decision September 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s September decision on 16 September\, providing important global context two weeks before the RBA’s decision.\nECB Rate Decision September 2026 – The European Central Bank’s September decision on 10 September\, another major central bank read on global inflation and monetary conditions.\nBank of England MPC Rate Decision September 2026 – The BoE’s September decision on 17 September\, providing further context on advanced economy monetary policy.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nDoes the RBA meet every month?\nNo. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board meets eight times per year since moving from its previous 11-meeting-per-year schedule. The 2026 meeting dates are February\, March\, May\, June\, August\, September\, November\, and December. Four of those meetings (February\, May\, August\, November) are accompanied by the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy with updated economic forecasts. \nWhen is the September 2026 RBA decision announced?\nThe decision will be published at 2:30 pm AEST (4:30 am GMT) on Tuesday\, 29 September 2026\, following the two-day meeting on 28-29 September. The Governor holds a press conference at 3:30 pm AEST immediately after. \nWhat impact does the RBA cash rate have on the Australian dollar?\nThe RBA cash rate influences the AUD by affecting the interest rate differential between Australia and other major economies. A higher Australian cash rate\, relative to rates in the US\, Europe\, and Japan\, makes AUD-denominated assets more attractive to global investors seeking yield\, supporting the currency. A cut or surprise hold would typically weaken the AUD\, while a hike or hawkish statement would typically support it. The AUD is also heavily influenced by commodity prices\, particularly iron ore\, given the importance of mining exports to the Australian economy. \nFeatured image: Photo by Fabian Mardi on Unsplash.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/rba-rate-decision-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Central Banks & Monetary Policy
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260929T080000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260929T090000
DTSTAMP:20260826T055422Z
CREATED:20260826T055422Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260826T055422Z
UID:2299-1790668800-1790672400@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Germany CPI Flash September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Germany CPI Flash: Tuesday\, September 29\, 2026 at 2:00 pm CEST (8:00 am ET\, 1:00 pm London). Covers August 2026 data. \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n+2.8% YoY (July 2026 flash)\, core +2.4%\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Germany CPI Flash. \nUpdated August 26\, 2026 \n\n← Previous Germany CPI Flash\nGermany’s flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026 is scheduled for release on September 29\, 2026\, at 8:00 am ET (2:00 pm CEST\, 1:00 pm London time)\, published by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany\, known as Destatis. The flash estimate gives markets the first look at how prices moved across Germany’s largest economy before the final\, more detailed figures follow around two weeks later. Full schedule and background: Germany CPI Flash. \nWhat is the Germany CPI Flash?\nThe Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices paid by German households for a fixed basket of goods and services\, covering everything from groceries and rent to energy bills and package holidays. Destatis calculates the index every month\, then compares it with the same month a year earlier to produce the headline “inflation rate” that appears in news reports. \nThe flash\, or preliminary\, estimate is built from early regional data collected before the full national dataset is finalised. It is not as complete as the final release published roughly two weeks later\, but it is timely enough to move currency and bond markets because Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone and its price trends heavily influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate decisions. \nEconomists also watch “core inflation”\, which strips out volatile food and energy prices\, because it is seen as a cleaner read on underlying\, persistent price pressure in the economy. \nWhen is the August 2026 Germany CPI Flash released?\nThe release is expected on September 29\, 2026\, at 8:00 am ET (2:00 pm CEST\, 1:00 pm London time)\, though Destatis has not yet formally confirmed the exact date on its release calendar. German flash CPI figures are typically published on the last working day of the reference month or in the first days of the following month\, so this date should be treated as indicative until Destatis confirms it. The data is published free of charge on the Destatis website. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nAs of publication\, a consensus forecast for the August 2026 flash reading has not yet been published; economist surveys for German CPI are typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg in the days immediately before release. The most recent confirmed flash reading\, for July 2026\, showed annual inflation at +2.8%\, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) at +2.4%\, according to Destatis. Energy prices in that report were up 8.3% year-on-year\, a sharp acceleration Destatis linked partly to the end of a government fuel discount. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (August 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline CPI (year-on-year)\n+2.8%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCore CPI (year-on-year)\n+2.4%\nNot yet published\n\n\nCPI (month-on-month)\n+0.8%\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nEuro could firm and German Bund yields could rise as traders trim bets on ECB rate cuts\nPrices are still climbing faster than hoped\, which could keep borrowing costs higher for longer\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nMuted reaction\, with markets keeping current ECB rate expectations broadly unchanged\nInflation is behaving roughly as expected\, so little changes for households immediately\n\n\nBelow consensus\nEuro could soften and rate-cut bets could firm\, according to analysts who track ECB policy signals\nPrice pressures are easing faster than expected\, which could eventually feed through to cheaper borrowing\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities based on how markets have typically reacted to German inflation surprises\, not predictions of what will happen on the day. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nGermany’s inflation rate has been volatile through 2026\, moving from 1.9% in February to a 2026 high of 2.9% in April before easing slightly and then reaccelerating to 2.8% in July\, according to Destatis. Destatis president Ruth Brand attributed the July jump largely to a sharp rise in energy prices after the government’s fuel discount ended and amid volatility in oil markets. Because Germany accounts for roughly a quarter of eurozone output\, its CPI flash is one of the inputs used to estimate the bloc-wide Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) ahead of Eurostat’s own flash release\, making it closely watched by the ECB as it weighs whether inflation is settling near its 2% target. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing: German and eurozone mortgage rates are influenced by ECB policy\, which reacts to inflation trends like this one. A hotter-than-expected reading can push up the cost of new fixed-rate deals across the eurozone.\nSavings: If inflation stays elevated\, the ECB is less likely to cut rates quickly\, which can keep savings account returns higher for longer\, though real returns still depend on how fast prices rise.\nJobs and wages: Persistent inflation can pressure German employers into higher wage settlements\, a dynamic the ECB watches closely for signs of a wage-price spiral.\nPrices: A rise in the headline figure typically reflects costs already being felt at supermarket tills and petrol pumps\, particularly when energy is the main driver\, as it was in July 2026.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: German data moves the euro against the dollar and pound\, affecting the value of eurozone holdings and pensions denominated in other currencies. UK and Asian investors exposed to European equities or bonds often see immediate\, if modest\, price moves around this release.\n\nRelated events\n\nPrevious release: Germany CPI Flash August 2026\nEurozone flash HICP\, published by Eurostat shortly after the German figure\nEuropean Central Bank interest rate decision\, which weighs this data alongside other member state inflation readings\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Germany CPI Flash released?\nThe release is expected at 8:00 am ET\, which is 2:00 pm CEST in Germany and 1:00 pm London time\, though Destatis has not formally confirmed the September 29\, 2026 date. \nHow should I read the headline versus core inflation figures?\nThe headline figure includes food and energy\, which can swing sharply from month to month\, while core inflation strips these out to show the more persistent\, underlying trend that central banks tend to focus on. \nHow does this data affect ECB interest rate decisions?\nThe ECB targets 2% inflation for the eurozone and uses national data like Germany’s flash CPI\, alongside other member states\, to judge whether current interest rates are appropriate or need to change. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe data is published directly by Destatis\, Germany’s Federal Statistical Office\, on its press release calendar. \nWhen is the next Germany CPI Flash release?\nGermany publishes a flash CPI estimate every month\, typically at or near month-end\, with the following release covering September 2026 data expected in late October 2026. \n← Previous Germany CPI Flash
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/germany-cpi-flash-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260929T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260929T110000
DTSTAMP:20260826T034450Z
CREATED:20260826T034449Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260826T034450Z
UID:2275-1790676000-1790679600@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:US Consumer Confidence September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next US Consumer Confidence: Tuesday\, September 29\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). \nDate to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n89.4 (August 2026\, revised)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: US Consumer Confidence. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\n← Previous US Consumer Confidence\nThe Conference Board is expected to release its Consumer Confidence Index for September 2026 on September 29\, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time). This report measures how optimistic or pessimistic US households feel about current business conditions and their outlook for the next six months. Full schedule and background: US Consumer Confidence. \nThe Conference Board has not formally confirmed this date. It typically publishes the Consumer Confidence Index on the last Tuesday of each month\, so September 29\, 2026 is the expected date based on that pattern. \nWhat is the Consumer Confidence Index?\nThe Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a monthly survey run by the Conference Board\, a private research organisation\, that asks a panel of roughly 3\,000 US households about current business and labour market conditions\, and about their expectations for income\, business and jobs over the next six months. The headline index is built from two sub-indexes: the Present Situation Index\, which reflects how people see the economy today\, and the Expectations Index\, which reflects their six-month outlook. \nMarkets watch this release because consumer spending drives around two-thirds of US economic activity. A sharp change in confidence can signal a shift in future spending on everything from cars to holidays\, which in turn affects company earnings and\, eventually\, hiring and wages. The Federal Reserve also looks at the Expectations Index closely: a reading below 80 has historically often preceded a recession within the following year. \nWhen is the September Consumer Confidence Index released?\nThe Conference Board is expected to publish the report at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) on September 29\, 2026. The data is released to the public via the Conference Board’s website and distributed to newswires simultaneously. As noted above\, the exact date has not been officially confirmed by the Conference Board\, but its releases have consistently fallen on the last Tuesday of the month. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the September 2026 reading has not yet been published. Economists’ forecasts for this release typically become available in the days immediately before the report\, once major data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg poll their panels. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (August 2026)\nConsensus (September 2026)\n\n\n\n\nHeadline Consumer Confidence Index\n89.4\nNot yet published\n\n\nPresent Situation Index\n121.2\nNot yet published\n\n\nExpectations Index\n68.2\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nSeen as a sign households feel steadier about jobs and spending\, which could support equities and reduce expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts\nPeople feel a bit more comfortable\, which could mean more spending on things like holidays and big purchases\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction\, since traders will have already priced in expectations\nThe economy is behaving roughly as expected\, so nothing changes quickly for borrowing costs or prices\n\n\nBelow consensus\nCould raise concern about slowing spending and add to the case for the Federal Reserve to keep or cut interest rates to support growth\nPeople are more worried about jobs and prices\, which can mean less spending on non-essentials and more caution about big purchases\n\n\n\nWhy does this release matter right now?\nConfidence has been on a broad downward path through the summer of 2026. The index fell for a second consecutive month in August\, dropping to 89.4 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in July\, according to a report carried by Yahoo Finance. The decline was driven almost entirely by the Expectations Index\, which measures how households feel about business\, income and jobs over the next six months\, falling 5.8 points to 68.2\, while the Present Situation Index actually improved by 6.8 points to 121.2\, its first rise in four months. \nAn Expectations Index reading below 80 has historically often signalled a recession within the following year\, a threshold the Conference Board itself has flagged. Survey respondents in August cited elevated petrol prices\, more mentions of “armed conflict\, geopolitical tensions\, food costs\, trade issues\, and employment concerns” than the previous month\, and households expected inflation of 5.8% over the coming year\, up from 5.6% in July\, according to the same Yahoo Finance report. That policymakers\, including the Federal Reserve\, watch this survey closely means a September reading that confirms or reverses this trend could feed into expectations for the Fed’s next interest rate decision. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and borrowing: A weak confidence reading can support the case for the Federal Reserve to hold or cut interest rates\, which may keep mortgage and loan rates from rising further; a strong reading can do the opposite.\nSavings: If the data pushes rate-cut expectations further out\, savers may see slightly better returns on cash for longer; if it strengthens the case for cuts\, savings rates could start to drift down.\nJobs and wages: The Expectations Index specifically tracks how households view the job market\, so a weak reading can be an early sign that hiring intentions and wage growth may soften in the coming months.\nPrices: The survey also captures how much inflation consumers expect\, which was already running at 5.8% for the year ahead in August. Elevated inflation expectations can make it harder for the Federal Reserve to justify interest rate cuts.\nInvestments and pensions: Weaker confidence can weigh on shares of retailers\, carmakers and travel companies that depend on discretionary spending\, which matters for pension funds holding US equities.\nCurrencies: A soft reading that raises the odds of Fed rate cuts can weigh on the dollar\, with knock-on effects for the pound\, euro and other currencies\, while a stronger reading can support the dollar.\n\nRelated events\n\nUS Consumer Confidence\, August 2026\nUS Nonfarm Payrolls\, the monthly US jobs report\nFederal Reserve interest rate decision\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the September Consumer Confidence Index released?\nIt is expected at 10:00 am ET\, which is 3:00 pm London time\, on September 29\, 2026\, though the Conference Board has not formally confirmed the date. \nHow should I read the Consumer Confidence Index?\nA higher number means households feel more positive about the economy and their own finances; a falling number\, as seen through the summer of 2026\, points to growing caution about jobs\, prices and spending. \nDoes this data affect interest rates?\nThe Federal Reserve monitors consumer sentiment as one input among many\, so a weak reading can add to the case for holding or cutting rates\, while a strong reading can reduce pressure to cut. \nWhere is the official release published?\nThe report is published directly on the Conference Board’s website and distributed to newswires at the time of release. \nWhen is the next Consumer Confidence report?\nThe Conference Board typically releases this data on the last Tuesday of each month\, so the following report would be expected in late October 2026. \n← Previous US Consumer Confidence
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-consumer-confidence-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260929T213000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260929T223000
DTSTAMP:20260825T131158Z
CREATED:20260825T131158Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260825T131158Z
UID:2173-1790717400-1790721000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:Australia CPI September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next Australia CPI: Wednesday\, September 30\, 2026 at 11:30 am AEST (9:30 pm ET\, 2:30 am London). Covers August 2026 data. \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\n3.8% annual (12 months to June 2026)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: Australia CPI. \nUpdated August 25\, 2026 \n\nThe Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases its Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator for August 2026 on Wednesday\, September 30\, 2026 at 11:30am AEST\, which falls at 9:30pm ET on September 29 and 2:30am in London on September 30. The figure measures how much prices for a broad basket of household goods and services changed in the 12 months to August 2026. Full background and the release schedule for this series sit on the Australia CPI hub page. \nWhat is Australia’s CPI?\nThe Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services\, from groceries and petrol to rent and electricity. When the index rises faster than wages\, households can afford less with the same pay\, which is why economists call this inflation. \nThe ABS has published a full Monthly CPI Indicator since late 2022\, expanding on the older quarterly CPI that dates back decades. The monthly figure gives the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)\, businesses and investors a more frequent read on price pressure between the quarterly releases\, though the ABS still treats the quarterly CPI as the more complete measure because it covers a larger share of the basket each time. \nMarkets watch this release closely because it feeds directly into the RBA’s interest rate decisions. A faster than expected rise in prices can make the central bank more cautious about cutting borrowing costs\, while a slowdown can open the door to lower rates\, which is why traders\, mortgage holders and savers all have a stake in the number. \nWhen is the August CPI released?\nThe ABS publishes the Monthly CPI Indicator on the last Wednesday of the month following the reference month\, according to the ABS release schedule. For August 2026 data\, that falls on September 30\, 2026\, at 11:30am Australian Eastern Standard Time. The release is published free on the ABS website under Consumer Price Index\, Australia. There is no estimated date attached to this report: the ABS calendar confirms September 30\, 2026 as the publication date. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast from a major poll of economists has not yet been published for the August 2026 reading\, as forecaster surveys for this release typically appear only in the days immediately before publication. The most recent confirmed official figure comes from the ABS’s June 2026 release\, which showed the Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% in the 12 months to June 2026\, down from 4.0% in the 12 months to May 2026. Housing was the largest single contributor to annual inflation in the most recent quarterly breakdown. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior\nConsensus\n\n\n\n\nHeadline annual CPI\n3.8% (12 months to June 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\nHousing group annual inflation (quarterly measure)\n6.8% (June quarter 2026)\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nTraders would likely pare back bets on RBA rate cuts and the Australian dollar could firm\, since higher than expected inflation typically reduces the chance of near-term easing\nPrices are rising faster than expected\, which could delay any relief on mortgage rates and squeeze household budgets further\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nLimited market reaction is likely\, as the print would confirm the existing path the RBA and investors already expect\nInflation is behaving broadly as forecasters expected\, so the outlook for interest rates and prices probably stays unchanged\n\n\nBelow consensus\nMarkets could increase bets on rate cuts and the Australian dollar may soften\, since a cooler reading usually supports the case for easier policy\nPrice pressures are easing faster than expected\, which could eventually feed through to lower borrowing costs\n\n\n\nThese are possible reactions based on how markets typically respond to inflation surprises\, not predictions of what will happen on the day. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nThe RBA has an inflation target band of 2 to 3% and has been watching annual CPI gradually cool from the highs of recent years. The ABS reported that annual inflation eased to 3.8% in the 12 months to June 2026\, down from 4.0% in the 12 months to May 2026\, and the June quarter’s official quarterly CPI rose 3.9% over the year with housing\, food and transport as the biggest contributors\, according to a state treasury summary of the ABS release. Each monthly print is being read as a signal of whether that slowdown is continuing or stalling\, which shapes expectations for the RBA’s next cash rate decision. Because Australia’s cash rate influences global capital flows\, movements here also affect currency markets and bond yields well beyond Australia’s borders. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: if inflation surprises higher\, the RBA is less likely to cut its cash rate soon\, meaning variable mortgage repayments in Australia could stay higher for longer. A weaker reading raises the chance of a future rate cut\, which would eventually flow through to lower mortgage repayments.\nSavings: higher for longer interest rates tend to mean better returns on savings accounts and term deposits\, while a cooling inflation trend that leads to rate cuts usually means savings rates drift lower over time.\nJobs and wages: persistent inflation above wage growth erodes real pay\, so a hot CPI print can renew pressure on households even if nominal wages are rising.\nPrices you pay: the CPI is a direct measure of the cost of everyday items such as groceries\, rent and fuel\, so a higher than expected number usually means the cost of living squeeze is not easing as quickly as hoped.\nInvestments\, pensions and currencies: the Australian dollar and Australian government bond yields typically move on this data because they reflect changing expectations for RBA policy. For readers outside Australia\, including in the UK\, Europe and Asia\, a shift in the Australian dollar can affect the value of Australian assets held in pension funds and portfolios\, and Australia’s inflation trend is also watched as one gauge of resource-linked demand across Asia.\n\nRelated events\n\nThe quarterly Australian CPI release\, published separately by the ABS each quarter\, which the RBA treats as its primary inflation gauge.\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate decisions\, which respond directly to CPI trends.\nOther regional inflation reports\, including Japan’s and China’s CPI releases\, which shape the broader Asia-Pacific inflation picture.\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the Australia CPI released?\nThe ABS releases the Monthly CPI Indicator for August 2026 at 11:30am AEST on September 30\, 2026\, which is 9:30pm ET on September 29 and 2:30am in London on September 30. \nHow do I read the headline number?\nThe headline figure shows the percentage change in prices over the 12 months to the reference month; a higher number than the prior reading means inflation is accelerating\, while a lower number means it is cooling. \nHow does this release affect interest rates?\nThe RBA uses inflation data\, alongside the quarterly CPI\, to decide whether to raise\, hold or cut its cash rate\, so a surprise in either direction can shift market expectations for the next rate decision. \nWhere can I find the official release?\nThe ABS publishes the full release\, including detailed tables\, on its website under Consumer Price Index\, Australia\, at the ABS release calendar. \nWhen is the next Australia CPI release?\nThe ABS publishes the Monthly CPI Indicator on the last Wednesday of each month following the reference month\, so the next release after this one covers September 2026 data and is expected in late October 2026.
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/australia-cpi-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260929T213000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260929T223000
DTSTAMP:20260826T050020Z
CREATED:20260826T050020Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260826T050020Z
UID:2277-1790717400-1790721000@www.financecalendar.com
SUMMARY:China Official PMI September 2026
DESCRIPTION:Next China Official PMI: Wednesday\, September 30\, 2026 at 9:30 am CST (9:30 pm ET\, 2:30 am London). \n\nConsensus\nNot yet published\nPrior\nManufacturing 49.2\, Non-Manufacturing 49.0 (July 2026)\nActual\nPending\n\nFull schedule and background: China Official PMI. \nUpdated August 26\, 2026 \n\n← Previous China Official PMI\nThe China Official PMI for September 2026 is scheduled for release on September 30\, 2026\, at 9:30 pm ET (9:30 am China Standard Time on September 30\, 2026 local time\, or 2:30 am in London on the same day). The figures are published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)\, working with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)\, and cover economic activity during September 2026. Full schedule and background: China Official PMI. \nWhat is the China Official PMI?\nThe Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based gauge of activity in China’s factories and service businesses. Procurement managers at hundreds of firms are asked whether output\, new orders\, employment\, and other measures rose\, fell\, or stayed flat compared with the previous month. The answers are combined into a single index\, where a reading above 50 signals expansion and a reading below 50 signals contraction. \nThe NBS releases two headline numbers each month: the Manufacturing PMI\, covering factories\, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI\, covering services and construction. Together they form the earliest official snapshot of how the world’s second-largest economy is performing\, arriving well before slower data such as trade or industrial production figures. \nInvestors\, central banks\, and companies with supply chains running through China watch the release closely because it can move currency markets\, commodity prices\, and shares of firms exposed to Chinese demand\, from mining companies in Australia to carmakers in Germany. \nWhen is the September China Official PMI released?\nThe release is set for September 30\, 2026\, at 9:30 am China Standard Time\, published on the NBS website. In US terms that is 9:30 pm ET on September 30 (Eastern Daylight Time)\, and 2:30 am in London on the same calendar day. The NBS typically publishes its PMI figures on the last calendar day of the month being measured\, so a September reading is released on September 30 itself\, one of the fastest turnarounds among major economic indicators. \nWhat is the consensus forecast?\nA consensus forecast for the September 2026 release has not yet been widely published by data providers such as Reuters or Bloomberg at the time of writing. Once economists’ surveys are compiled closer to the release date\, a median forecast typically appears on financial data terminals and economic calendars. \nThe most recently confirmed official readings available are for July 2026\, when China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI eased to 49.0\, according to Mitrade’s coverage of the NBS release. Both readings remained below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. \n\n\n\nMeasure\nPrior (July 2026)\nConsensus (September 2026)\n\n\n\n\nManufacturing PMI\n49.2\nNot yet published\n\n\nNon-Manufacturing PMI\n49.0\nNot yet published\n\n\n\nWhat the result could mean\n\n\n\nScenario\nLikely market read\nWhat it means in plain English\n\n\n\n\nAbove consensus\nRenminbi and China-linked equities could firm\, commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar may gain\nFactories and services are growing faster than expected\, suggesting stronger demand from China for raw materials\, exports\, and consumer goods\n\n\nIn line with consensus\nMuted reaction\, markets largely stick to prior positioning\nThe economy is performing broadly as economists expected\, so little changes for global trade or investment flows\n\n\nBelow consensus\nPressure on the renminbi\, weaker sentiment for commodity exporters and Asian equities\nChinese activity is slowing more than expected\, which can dent demand for goods from trading partners including the UK\, Europe\, and Australia\n\n\n\nThese are possibilities based on how markets have historically responded to PMI surprises\, not predictions of what will happen in September 2026. \nWhy does this release matter right now?\nChina’s manufacturing PMI has spent much of 2026 hovering below the 50 expansion line\, reflecting soft domestic demand\, a prolonged property market downturn\, and uneven export performance. FocusEconomics reported that both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing readings disappointed in July 2026\, with the non-manufacturing measure falling to 49.0 from 50.2 in June\, signalling weakness had spread from factories into services and construction. \nPolicymakers at the People’s Bank of China and China’s State Council have been weighing further stimulus to support growth\, and PMI trends feed directly into that debate. A run of weak PMI prints tends to raise expectations of additional fiscal spending or interest rate cuts\, while a stabilising trend can ease pressure for more support. Because China is the largest trading partner for many Asian\, European\, and commodity-exporting economies\, shifts in its PMI ripple outward into global growth forecasts. \nWhat It Means for Your Money\n\nMortgages and rates: Weak Chinese data can push global bond yields lower as investors seek safety\, which sometimes feeds through to slightly cheaper fixed-rate mortgage pricing in the UK\, US\, and eurozone\, though the link is indirect and often outweighed by domestic central bank decisions.\nSavings: A softer Chinese economy can slow global inflation by lowering demand for oil and industrial metals\, which can help keep a lid on the cost of living and\, over time\, on how far central banks need to raise interest rates that affect savings account returns.\nJobs and wages: Manufacturers and exporters in countries that sell heavily into China\, including Germany\, South Korea\, and Australia\, can see order books thin if PMI readings weaken further\, which may eventually show up in hiring decisions.\nInvestments and pensions: Funds with exposure to Chinese equities\, emerging markets\, or commodity producers often move on PMI day. A weaker print can pressure mining and energy shares held in diversified pension portfolios\, while a stronger print can lift them.\nCurrencies: The renminbi\, Australian dollar\, and other commodity-linked currencies tend to react most directly. A weak PMI can put downward pressure on these currencies against the US dollar and the pound\, affecting the cost of imported goods.\n\nRelated events\n\nPrevious release: China Official PMI\, August 2026\nFull series schedule and history: China Official PMI hub\nWatch also for China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI\, a separate private-sector survey often released a day or two after the official figures\n\nFrequently Asked Questions\nWhat time is the September 2026 China Official PMI released?\nIt is released at 9:30 am China Standard Time on September 30\, 2026\, which is 9:30 pm ET on September 30 and 2:30 am in London. \nHow do I read the PMI number?\nA reading above 50 means the sector surveyed is expanding compared with the previous month\, while a reading below 50 means it is contracting; the further from 50\, the sharper the change. \nDoes the China PMI affect UK or US interest rates?\nNot directly\, since it is not a US or UK indicator\, but weak Chinese activity can lower global commodity prices and growth expectations\, which central banks such as the Bank of England and Federal Reserve take into account alongside domestic data. \nWhere is the official PMI release published?\nChina’s National Bureau of Statistics publishes the figures on its official website\, stats.gov.cn\, alongside detailed sub-indices for new orders\, employment\, and prices. \nWhen is the next China Official PMI released after this one?\nThe following release covers October 2026 data and is typically published on the last day of October 2026\, following the NBS’s standard monthly schedule. \n← Previous China Official PMI
URL:https://www.financecalendar.com/event/china-official-pmi-september-2026/
CATEGORIES:Economic Indicators
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