MSFT Earnings October 2026
2026-10-28 12:00 - 13:00 (America/New_York)
Next MSFT Quarterly Earnings: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
$4.82 EPS, $92.46 billion revenue (Q1 FY2027, per ChartMill)
Prior
$90.0 billion revenue, $4.74 adjusted EPS (Q4 FY2026, reported July 29, 2026)
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous MSFT Quarterly Earnings
Microsoft is expected to report its fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with results due after markets close, typically followed by a call at around 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm London) the next trading session or, in some quarters, the same evening at 5:30 pm ET. This is one of the most closely watched earnings reports in the world because Microsoft is a bellwether for cloud computing, enterprise software and artificial intelligence spending, and its results move not just the stock but broader technology indices in the US, Europe and Asia. Full schedule and background: MSFT earnings dates.
What is the Microsoft Q1 FY2027 earnings report?
This release covers Microsoft’s first fiscal quarter of its 2027 financial year, spanning July to September 2026. Microsoft’s fiscal year runs from July to June, so this is the first of four quarterly reports investors will see over the coming twelve months. The report is issued by Microsoft’s investor relations team and covers three main reporting segments: Productivity and Business Processes (Office, LinkedIn, Dynamics), Intelligent Cloud (Azure and server products), and More Personal Computing (Windows, devices, gaming and search advertising). Company executives, usually chief executive Satya Nadella and chief financial officer Amy Hood, host a live conference call and answer analyst questions shortly after the numbers are published.
When is the report and how to follow it
Microsoft has not yet formally confirmed the date on its investor relations calendar. The October 28, 2026 date used here follows the company’s usual pattern of reporting its fiscal first quarter in the last week of October, roughly the same week each year. Investors should treat this date as an estimate until Microsoft publishes an official notice, typically two to three weeks beforehand. The results and a live audio webcast are normally published on Microsoft’s investor relations website, alongside a press release and slide deck. Financial news services including Reuters, Bloomberg and CNBC provide live coverage, and the earnings call transcript is usually available within hours on the investor relations site.
What to expect
A consensus estimate compiled by ChartMill from 42 Wall Street analysts points to earnings per share of $4.82 and revenue of $92.46 billion for the quarter, according to ChartMill. That would represent year-on-year revenue growth of around 19%, driven largely by continued expansion in Azure and other cloud services. Analysts will focus closely on Azure growth rates, capital expenditure tied to AI data centre build-out (which reached around $41 billion in the prior quarter and is expected to exceed $50 billion in this one, according to Investing.com), and adoption metrics for Microsoft 365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot. Guidance for the December quarter, particularly around cloud margins and AI infrastructure spending, is likely to matter to investors as much as the headline numbers, since heavy capital spending has weighed on operating margins in recent quarters.
Microsoft’s most recent quarterly result, for fiscal Q4 2026 reported on July 29, 2026, showed revenue of $90.0 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $4.74, comfortably ahead of the analyst estimate of $4.24, according to Investing.com. A full four-quarter revenue and EPS history sourced directly from Microsoft’s investor relations filings is not yet independently verifiable for every quarter at the time of writing, so it has been omitted here rather than estimated.
What the outcome could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Beat on both revenue and EPS, with strong Azure growth
Shares likely to rise, technology and AI-linked stocks may follow
Cloud and AI demand remains strong, supporting confidence in the broader technology sector

In line with consensus, but cautious guidance on spending or margins
Mixed or muted share reaction, possible volatility around the call
Business is steady but investors want more clarity on how AI investment affects future profit

Miss on revenue or EPS, or weaker than expected Azure growth
Shares likely to fall, pressure may spread to other AI and cloud-linked names
Signs that enterprise spending on cloud and AI services is slowing, a concern for the wider tech rally

What It Means for Your Money
Microsoft is one of the largest companies in the world by market value, so its share price movements can influence pension funds, index trackers and workplace pension schemes even for people who have never bought a share directly. Many default pension funds and popular index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500, hold a significant weighting in Microsoft, so a sharp move in its share price after earnings can nudge the value of retirement savings up or down slightly. A strong or weak result can also ripple through to other technology and AI-related shares in the US, Europe and Asia, since Microsoft’s cloud spending affects suppliers of chips, data centre equipment and cooling systems worldwide. For everyday consumers, the report itself does not change mortgage rates, savings rates or the price of goods, but persistent strength in US technology earnings has in the past supported the dollar, which can make imports slightly more expensive for UK and eurozone households when converted from dollar-priced goods. Investors holding US technology funds or exchange-traded funds may see more volatility around the results date than on an average trading day.
Related events

Microsoft’s fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, reported July 29, 2026: MSFT earnings July 2026
Other major technology earnings reported in the same week, including Alphabet, Amazon and Meta
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which often falls in the same week and can add to market volatility around tech earnings

Frequently Asked Questions
When exactly will Microsoft report Q1 FY2027 earnings?
The estimated date is Wednesday, October 28, 2026, but Microsoft has not yet confirmed this on its investor relations calendar, so the date could shift by a day or two.
What time will the earnings call take place?
Results are typically released after market close, with the earnings call usually held around 5:30 pm ET (10:30 pm London) on the reporting day, or sometimes at 12:00 pm ET the following session, depending on Microsoft’s final scheduling.
What is the consensus forecast for this quarter?
According to ChartMill, the consensus among 42 analysts is earnings per share of $4.82 and revenue of $92.46 billion, though this figure can change as more analysts update their estimates closer to the release.
How did Microsoft perform last quarter?
In fiscal Q4 2026, reported on July 29, 2026, Microsoft posted revenue of $90.0 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $4.74, beating the analyst estimate of $4.24.
Why does Microsoft’s earnings report matter to non-investors?
Because Microsoft is heavily weighted in many pension funds and index trackers, and its results are seen as a signal for broader trends in cloud computing and AI spending that can affect jobs, technology investment and market sentiment well beyond its own shareholders.
← Previous MSFT Quarterly Earnings

META Earnings October 2026
2026-10-28 12:00 - 13:00 (America/New_York)
Next META Quarterly Earnings: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Q2 2026: Revenue $60.8bn, EPS $6.18 (missed ~$7.14-7.22 consensus)
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous META Quarterly Earnings
Meta Platforms is expected to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with the earnings call scheduled for around 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm London). The report and call are published by Meta’s own investor relations team, not a third-party data provider, and the figures move markets because Meta is one of the largest advertising and technology companies in the world, with results that ripple through the wider social media, digital advertising and artificial intelligence infrastructure sectors. For the full release calendar and background on this recurring event, see the Meta earnings hub.
Note that Meta has not yet formally confirmed this date. Big technology companies typically report roughly four weeks after quarter-end, and Meta has historically released its third-quarter results in the last week of October, so October 28, 2026 reflects that usual pattern rather than a confirmed announcement.
What is a Meta quarterly earnings report?
Every three months, Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) publishes audited financial results covering its Family of Apps segment (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger) and its Reality Labs division, which houses virtual and augmented reality products. The release includes revenue, profit, user numbers such as daily and monthly active people, and management’s outlook for the coming quarter. Chief executive Mark Zuckerberg and chief financial officer Susan Li typically host a live earnings call afterwards, taking questions from Wall Street analysts about advertising demand, artificial intelligence spending and the outlook for costs.
These reports matter well beyond Meta shareholders. The company is a bellwether for the broader digital advertising market, so its results are watched by investors in rival platforms, by pension funds holding technology-heavy index trackers, and by economists tracking corporate spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure worldwide, including in Europe and Asia where much of that hardware and cloud capacity is being built out.
When is the report and how to follow it
Meta usually issues its results via a press release on its investor relations website shortly before the market close, followed by a live audio webcast of the earnings call at around 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm London, 5:00 pm in most of continental Europe). The release and call recording are made available afterwards on Meta’s investor relations site. Investors in Asia can typically read the results and management commentary the following morning local time, given the time difference from the US afternoon release.
What to expect
A consensus forecast for Meta’s third-quarter 2026 earnings per share and revenue has not yet been published, as analyst estimates for a quarter are typically finalised only in the days before the report. Once available, consensus figures are usually compiled by data providers such as LSEG, FactSet or Visible Alpha from a panel of Wall Street analysts.
Based on recent quarters, analysts are likely to focus on three areas: advertising revenue growth across Facebook and Instagram, the scale of capital spending on data centres and artificial intelligence chips, and any update on losses at Reality Labs. In the prior quarter, Meta reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $60.8 billion and diluted earnings per share of $6.18, which fell short of the roughly $7.14 to $7.22 consensus estimate compiled by analysts, according to Simply Wall St and 247 Wall St. Net income declined 14% year-on-year to roughly $15.85 billion, which the company attributed to higher legal expenses, severance costs and continued heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, according to Digital Applied’s analysis of the release.
Given that pattern, analysts covering the October report are likely to pay close attention to whether cost growth, including data centre depreciation and staffing, continues to outpace revenue growth, and whether management gives fresh guidance on 2027 capital spending plans.
What the outcome could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Beat on revenue and EPS, with cost growth under control
Shares likely to rise; positive for technology and advertising sector sentiment
Meta earned more than expected while managing its spending, suggesting its advertising business and AI investments are paying off

Results roughly in line with analyst estimates
Muted share reaction, attention shifts to forward guidance
Nothing surprised the market, so investors focus on what management says about the next quarter and future spending

Miss on EPS or weaker-than-expected guidance
Shares likely to fall, pressure on other technology and AI-linked stocks
Costs, particularly AI infrastructure spending, are eating into profit faster than investors expected

What It Means for Your Money
Meta is one of the largest companies in global stock market indices, so its share price movements affect many people who have never bought an individual share. If you hold a workplace pension, an index fund, or an exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 or a global technology index, a large swing in Meta’s share price after this report will show up, in a small way, in the value of that fund. A strong report can lift sentiment across the wider technology and communications sector, including advertising-dependent businesses in Europe and Asia; a weak one can drag down related stocks and, at times, the broader market. For consumers, the numbers rarely change day-to-day life directly, but persistent heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure by companies like Meta can, over time, feed into demand for computer chips, electricity and data centre construction, with knock-on effects for energy prices and jobs in the regions where that infrastructure is built. Currency markets can also react modestly if the results shift views on US technology sector strength relative to the dollar, euro or pound, though this is usually a secondary and short-lived effect compared with central bank decisions.
Related events

Meta Q2 2026 earnings report (July 2026)
US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which influence technology stock valuations broadly
Other “Magnificent Seven” technology earnings reports released in the same season, including Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon

Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meta report third-quarter 2026 earnings?
The report is expected around 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm London) on October 28, 2026, though Meta has not yet formally confirmed the exact date.
What was Meta’s result in the previous quarter?
In the second quarter of 2026, Meta reported revenue of approximately $60.8 billion and diluted earnings per share of $6.18, which missed the analyst consensus of roughly $7.14 to $7.22, according to Simply Wall St.
Is there a consensus forecast yet for the October 2026 report?
No, a consensus forecast has not yet been published. Analyst estimates for a specific quarter are typically finalised only in the days immediately before the report.
Where can I watch the earnings call live?
Meta streams its earnings call live on its investor relations website, with a replay usually available shortly afterwards.
Why does Meta’s earnings report matter outside the United States?
Meta generates a large share of its advertising revenue outside the US, and its results are closely watched by investors in Europe and Asia holding global technology or index funds, as well as by businesses that rely on Facebook and Instagram advertising to reach customers.
← Previous META Quarterly Earnings

FOMC Rate Decision October 2026
2026-10-28 14:00 - 15:00 (America/New_York)
Next FOMC Rate Decision: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (6:00 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: FOMC Rate Decision.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous FOMC Rate DecisionNext FOMC Rate Decision →
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. EDT, following a two-day meeting on October 27-28. This is a non-SEP meeting, with no updated economic projections or dot plot released alongside the decision. The October meeting falls between the September SEP meeting (September 15-16) and the December SEP meeting (December 8-9), making it a critical juncture: the October decision will either confirm or depart from the trajectory set at September, and it shapes market positioning heading into the final FOMC meeting of the year. The federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The Federal Reserve and the FOMC
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the monetary policy body of the Federal Reserve (the Fed), the US central bank. It sets the target range for the federal funds rate and meets eight times per year. The October meeting is one of four non-SEP meetings (alongside January, April, and July), at which only a policy statement and press conference are released. The October 2026 meeting follows three months of data released after the summer, covering the July, August, and September inflation and employment prints, giving the committee a substantial evidence base for its decision.
The October meeting’s proximity to the December SEP meeting makes it significant in the context of signalling. A rate change in October would need to be followed through in December, or explicitly reversed, which would be unusual. Conversely, a hold at October with dovish language effectively sets up December as the likely candidate for any year-end rate adjustment. The committee’s dual mandate requires balancing price stability (2% PCE target) and maximum employment, and the October decision will reflect how the FOMC has weighed these objectives through the second half of 2026.
FOMC October Meeting: October 27-28, 2026
The October 27-28 meeting arrives after the September SEP has updated the committee’s public projections and rate path. If September produced a rate cut (taking the funds rate to 3.25%-3.50%), October could be either a second cut or a pause to allow the effects of the September action to flow through the economy. If September was another hold, October faces the same dynamic: cut, hold, or acknowledge that December will be the decision point.
The data available by late October 2026 will include: Q2 2026 GDP (released late July), Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate (released late October), July-September CPI and PCE readings, July-September NFP reports, and any updated Federal Reserve communications from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (typically held in late August). This is one of the richest data environments of any FOMC meeting, spanning a full third-quarter picture of the US economy. The decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EDT on October 28, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
What to Expect
The October 2026 outcome depends entirely on the data and policy decisions that will unfold over the preceding months. Key scenarios include: (1) the Fed has already begun cutting at September, in which case October will determine the pace of the easing cycle; (2) the Fed has held through September, in which case October becomes a live decision point if inflation has moderated sufficiently; or (3) inflation remains sticky and October is another hold, with December as the final assessment for 2026.
The March 2026 SEP dot plot showed a median expectation of one cut in all of 2026. If that cut has not been delivered by October, market pressure on the Fed to deliver at least one reduction before year-end will be significant. The Fed’s credibility on its own projections is a factor in how it manages this tension. The FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 and subsequent meetings will collectively define the backdrop for October.
Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Rate (Target Range)
Vote

Dec 2025
-25bp
3.50%-3.75%
9-3

Jan 2026
Hold
3.50%-3.75%
n/v

Mar 2026
Hold
3.50%-3.75%
n/v

Apr 2026
Hold
3.50%-3.75%
8-4

Jun 2026
TBD (Jun 16-17, SEP)
TBD
TBD

Jul 2026
TBD
TBD
TBD

Sep 2026
TBD (Sep 15-16, SEP)
TBD
TBD

Oct 2026
TBD (Oct 27-28)
TBD
TBD

Sources: Federal Reserve Board; CNBC. “n/v” = vote not yet verified. “TBD” indicates decisions pending as of June 2026. Rates shown are the federal funds target range.
Market Impact Scenarios

Hold – A hold at October, if accompanied by clear language signalling a December cut, would be interpreted as market-neutral with a mildly dovish tilt. Treasuries would hold steady; equities would look ahead to December. A hold with no clear December guidance would be disappointing for rate-cut expecters and could push yields modestly higher.
Cut (25bp) – A cut in October would confirm that the easing cycle has resumed. This is positive for equities and bonds, reduces the dollar, and validates the market’s expectation that the Fed is prioritising growth support over residual inflation risks. A 25bp cut here, followed by a potential hold in December, would represent the “one cut in 2026” outcome from the March dot plot.
Hike – Not the base case; would require significantly worse-than-expected inflation data and would be strongly negative for equities and supportive of the dollar and bond yields.

Press Conference and Forward Guidance
Without a dot plot, the October press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT carries extra weight in shaping year-end rate expectations. Powell will need to either signal what the committee sees as the appropriate December outcome or maintain genuine uncertainty that keeps market pricing fluid. Given that October is three weeks before the US presidential election cycle’s post-election period (depending on the electoral calendar), the Fed will be particularly careful to emphasise its political independence and data-dependent decision-making process.
Forward guidance language in the October statement will be compared line-by-line against the September statement. Any new language acknowledging that “the committee has made further progress toward its inflation objective” (dovish) or that “uncertainty around the inflation outlook remains elevated” (hawkish) will be immediately parsed by market participants as a signal for December.
Related Events

FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The June SEP establishes the 2026 dot plot trajectory that October’s decision will need to conform to or deviate from.
US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) June 2026 – Labour market strength or weakness through July-September is a key input for the October decision.
US CPI Report June 2026 – Inflation data from June through September provides the definitive picture of whether the Fed has scope to ease at October.

Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the October FOMC meeting matter despite having no dot plot?
Non-SEP meetings like October matter because any rate change decided there takes immediate effect on financial markets and lending rates. They are also important as signals of the committee’s assessment between the guidance-setting SEP meetings. An October rate change would confirm that the Fed has moved ahead of its December projection update, signalling either urgency in easing or an unexpected shift in the data.
When will the FOMC October 2026 decision be announced?
The FOMC will release its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will begin at 2:30 p.m. EDT. No Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot will be published at this meeting.
How close is the October 2026 meeting to the US election?
The Federal Reserve operates independently of the political calendar and explicitly avoids scheduling rate decisions around elections. The October 27-28 FOMC meeting is timed according to the Fed’s fixed annual schedule. The Fed has a longstanding policy of emphasising its political independence, and Chair Powell has consistently stated that rate decisions are based solely on economic data, not on political considerations.

US Gross Domestic Product October 2026
2026-10-29 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Gross Domestic Product: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (12:30 pm London). Covers Q2 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Gross Domestic Product.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US Gross Domestic ProductNext US Gross Domestic Product →
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 2026 Advance Estimate on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The advance estimate is the first official measurement of US economic growth in the July-to-September quarter and typically generates the largest market reaction of the three GDP publications. October 29 is also the day the BEA releases the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report, which includes PCE inflation data. The combined release falls one day after the FOMC October 28 rate decision, making October 29 one of the most data-dense days of the year. The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.6% in Q1 2026 (second estimate); Q2 2026 advance data will be available by the time this Q3 release occurs.

At a Glance

Release Date
Thursday, October 29, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET

GDP Estimate
Q3 2026 Advance Estimate (first look)

Published By
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Prior GDP (Q1 2026)
+1.6% annualised (second estimate)

Same Day Releases
PCE September 2026; day after FOMC Oct 28

Market Impact
Very High (advance estimate; simultaneous PCE)

What is the GDP Advance Estimate?
The GDP advance estimate is the first official measure of US economic output for a given quarter, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis approximately four weeks after the quarter ends. It is based on incomplete source data (roughly two of the three months’ data are available when the advance estimate is compiled) and is subject to revision in subsequent second and third estimates. Despite this caveat, the advance estimate receives the largest market reaction of the three releases because it sets the initial narrative about the economy’s performance and is fresh information to markets.
GDP is measured on an annualised basis, expressing the quarterly growth rate as if it were sustained for a full year. A reading of +1.6% annualised means the economy grew at a pace that, if maintained for four quarters, would produce 1.6% annual growth. The annualised convention amplifies the apparent scale of quarterly movements, which is why a deceleration from 4.4% (Q3 2025) to 0.5% (Q4 2025) represents a dramatic but not necessarily catastrophic slowdown in absolute terms.
The Q3 2026 advance estimate will be the first read on US economic performance in the period from July 1 to September 30, 2026. This period encompasses the summer consumer spending season, back-to-school retail activity, and the final weeks of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting cycle up to September 16. The reading will reflect how the economy has responded to the restrictive monetary conditions that have been in place throughout 2026.
US GDP Q3 2026 Advance Estimate: October 29, 2026
The October 29 session will be exceptionally data-rich. The BEA releases both the Q3 GDP advance estimate and the September PCE data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, one day after the FOMC October 28 rate decision. Markets will need to simultaneously assess: the Federal Reserve’s latest policy stance (announced October 28), the health of US economic growth in Q3 (GDP advance), and the September inflation reading (PCE). This concentration of major events within a 24-hour window creates conditions for significant market moves across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities.
Consensus forecasts for Q3 GDP will be published in the run-up to the October 29 release, drawing on the available Q3 economic data including retail sales, employment, industrial production, and trade figures. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model and similar real-time trackers will provide continuously updated estimates in the weeks before October 29, giving markets an ongoing read of where Q3 growth is likely to land. For comparison, Q1 2026 growth was 1.6% annualised and full-year 2025 GDP was 2.1%. The Bloomberg and Reuters consensus surveys, published the week before October 29, will set the market expectation baseline.
Why This GDP Release Matters
The Q3 2026 advance estimate arrives at a critical juncture in the monetary policy cycle. The FOMC’s October 28 decision, announced the day before, will have provided the latest rate path signal. The October 29 GDP data then immediately tests whether the economic conditions are consistent with that stance. A sharp slowdown in Q3 growth would increase pressure on the Fed to ease policy, while stronger-than-expected growth would validate holding rates at current levels.
The GDP decomposition by expenditure component will be scrutinised alongside the headline growth figure. Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of US GDP, and any acceleration or deceleration in personal consumption within the Q3 figure will be read as a signal for Q4 2026 economic momentum. Strong Q3 consumer spending confirms that households remain resilient under restrictive monetary policy; weak spending raises concerns about a consumer-led slowdown in late 2026.
Business investment, government spending, and net exports are secondary but important components. In Q4 2025, a federal government shutdown subtracted approximately 1.0 percentage point from growth. No comparable disruption is anticipated in Q3 2026, meaning the headline figure should more accurately reflect underlying economic conditions. The September PCE data released simultaneously will provide the inflation context needed to interpret whether GDP growth is being driven by real output gains or by nominal price increases.
What to Watch For

Q3 GDP advance estimate above +2.5% – A positive growth surprise that reduces recession concerns and supports the case for a prolonged period of restrictive policy. Likely to support equities broadly, particularly cyclical sectors, while reducing bond rally expectations.
Q3 GDP advance estimate between +1.5% and +2.5% – Moderate growth consistent with the Q1 2026 trend. Market reaction will be tempered; attention will shift quickly to the simultaneous PCE data and whether inflation is decelerating.
Q3 GDP advance estimate below +1.0% – A significant slowdown following two consecutive weak quarters (Q4 2025: +0.5%, Q1 2026: +1.6%). Would raise recession concerns, likely to rally Treasury bonds, weigh on equities, and significantly increase expectations for a December rate cut.

Watch the personal consumption component specifically. It is the single largest component and the most reliable leading indicator of near-term GDP momentum. A breakdown between goods and services consumption will also reveal whether the goods-spending surge seen in 2021-2022 has fully normalised and whether services spending, which has driven most of the post-pandemic expansion, remains robust.
Historical Context

Quarter
Real GDP Growth (Annualised)
Notes

Q1 2026
+1.6%
Second estimate; partial recovery from Q4 2025 shutdown

Q4 2025
+0.5%
Federal government shutdown (Oct 1 – Nov 12) subtracted ~1.0pp

Q3 2025
+4.4%
Strong consumer spending and business investment

Q2 2025
+3.8%
Robust domestic demand, services-led growth

Full Year 2025
+2.1%
Annual rate; Q4 shutdown dragged on full-year average

Market Positioning
The October 29 morning session will be one of the most active of the year. Market participants will arrive having already processed the FOMC’s October 28 statement and, in many cases, the Fed Chair’s October 28 press conference. The two back-to-back events (FOMC October 28; GDP + PCE October 29) create a two-day event risk window where positions are best kept small or hedged until both data points are absorbed.
Algorithmic trading systems will be especially active in the seconds after the 8:30 a.m. release, parsing the headline GDP growth rate, the consumer spending component, and the PCE core reading simultaneously. Initial moves in Treasury futures, S&P 500 futures, and the US dollar index will reflect the combined read of both releases. Traders who maintain positions through this window should expect elevated volatility and potentially wider-than-usual bid-ask spreads in the immediate post-release period.
Related Events

US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) October 2026 – Released simultaneously on October 29, providing the September inflation and spending data alongside the Q3 GDP advance figure.
FOMC Rate Decision October 2026 – The October 28 rate decision is announced the day before; GDP and PCE on October 29 are the immediate follow-up data to that policy decision.
US Gross Domestic Product September 2026 – The Q2 2026 third estimate (September 30) provides the final Q2 growth figure against which Q3 results will be compared.

Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the GDP advance estimate generate the biggest market reaction?
The advance estimate is the first official look at a quarter’s economic performance, making it genuinely new information. Second and third estimates typically confirm the advance figure with modest revisions, so they carry less surprise potential. The advance estimate sets the initial growth narrative that markets price in immediately, whereas revisions require recalibrating an existing expectation.
When is the October 2026 GDP report released?
The BEA will publish the Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, October 29, 2026, alongside the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) report.
What is the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, and how should it be used?
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model provides a continuously updated real-time estimate of current-quarter GDP growth based on incoming economic data. It is updated after each major data release (retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, etc.) and provides traders with a running forecast ahead of the official BEA advance estimate. GDPNow is one input among many; it can diverge significantly from the consensus and from the eventual BEA figure, particularly early in the quarter when data is sparse.

US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) October 2026
2026-10-29 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Retail Sales: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (12:30 pm London). Covers September 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet available
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Retail Sales.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US Retail SalesNext US Retail Sales →
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, alongside personal income and consumer spending data. October 29 falls the day after the FOMC Rate Decision on October 28, making this the first major inflation data point released after the October policy decision. The October 29 release also coincides with the US GDP Q3 2026 advance estimate. As of April 2026, core PCE stood at 3.3% year-on-year.

At a Glance

Release Date
Thursday, October 29, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET

Data Covered
September 2026 personal income and spending

Published By
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Prior Core PCE (YoY)
3.3% (April 2026, most recent available)

Same Day Release
GDP Q3 2026 Advance Estimate

Context
Day after FOMC October decision

What is the PCE Price Index?
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve’s official inflation target measure, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. PCE covers expenditures by US households and also includes spending made on their behalf by employers and government entities, providing broader coverage than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, receives the closest scrutiny from policymakers as it filters out volatile components to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
The Fed’s target is 2% for headline PCE over the longer run. Core PCE stood at 3.3% year-on-year in April 2026, having risen from 2.7% in October 2025, a deterioration that has kept the federal funds rate at a restrictive level throughout 2026. The October 29 release will provide the September 2026 reading, an important data point in assessing whether the inflation trajectory is improving ahead of year-end.
The October 29 release is unusual in that it arrives one day after the FOMC’s October 28 rate decision. This means the October PCE data will not influence October’s rate outcome but will be the first chance for markets to assess whether the inflation conditions described by Fed Chair at the October press conference are materialising as expected. The data will feed directly into market pricing for the December FOMC meeting.
US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) Release: October 29, 2026
The October 29 release is one of the busiest days in the US economic calendar. The BEA publishes both the September PCE data and the Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate simultaneously at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Traders will need to process two major releases in the same moment: the Q3 GDP advance figure (the first look at economic growth in the July-to-September period) and the PCE inflation reading for September (providing the monthly price update for the same period). Together they offer a snapshot of the US economy’s simultaneous inflation and growth conditions in Q3 2026.
Consensus forecasts for the October 29 PCE release will be published in the week before the report, informed by the September CPI print released on October 14. The October 14 US CPI Report will be widely used to calibrate PCE expectations given the strong historical correlation between the two indices. The FOMC’s October 28 statement will also be fresh context: any guidance on the December meeting will sharpen market sensitivity to the PCE print the following morning.
Why This PCE Release Matters
The October 29 PCE data for September arrives immediately after the October FOMC meeting, making it the first inflation checkpoint after policymakers have stated their October stance. If the Fed holds rates at October’s meeting while signalling a December cut is possible, then a benign September PCE on October 29 would confirm that trajectory. A surprise to the upside would complicate the December case and could trigger a reassessment of the post-October rate path.
The personal spending component of the September report will show how consumers behaved at the close of Q3 2026. Together with the GDP advance estimate released at the same time, it provides a near-complete picture of the US economy’s performance in the third quarter: growth and its primary driver (consumer spending) on one side, and the inflation backdrop on the other. The interaction between these two datasets will determine how financial markets position going into Q4.
For the December FOMC meeting, the October 29 PCE print is effectively the first of three key remaining inflation readings (October PCE on November 25 and December CPI on December 10 are the others). A sequence of declining core PCE readings through Q4 would build a compelling case for a December rate cut; persistent or rising readings would reinforce a hold.
What to Watch For

Core PCE above 3.2% YoY – Continued sticky inflation. Reduces December cut probability significantly, likely to weigh on equities and lift Treasury yields, strengthening the dollar.
Core PCE between 2.8% and 3.2% YoY – Modest progress from the April 2026 peak of 3.3%. Markets may interpret this as “disinflation on track” and price in a higher probability of a December cut.
Core PCE below 2.5% YoY – A meaningful deceleration that would firmly establish December as likely to include a rate cut. Likely to rally bonds, support equities, and weaken the dollar. A reading this low would also raise questions about whether the Fed’s restrictive stance has been too aggressive.

Historical Context

Release Month
Data Month
Core PCE (YoY)
Core PCE (MoM)

May 2026
April 2026
3.3%
+0.24%

April 2026
March 2026
3.2%
+0.30%

March 2026
February 2026
3.0%
n/a

Jan 2026
December 2025
3.0%
+0.40%

Jan 2026
November 2025
2.8%
n/a

Jan 2026
October 2025
2.7%
n/a

Market Positioning
The October 29 session will be one of the most data-intensive single mornings of the year. Coming one day after the FOMC decision, traders will already be processing any rate guidance from October 28 when they receive the PCE and GDP releases at 8:30 a.m. on October 29. Position adjustments that would normally spread over several days will be compressed into a single session, potentially creating higher-than-usual intraday volatility across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities.
Investors in interest rate futures will be the most active. The simultaneous GDP and PCE releases will trigger immediate updates to December FOMC cut probabilities, with FedWatch and similar tools updating in real time. These probability shifts cascade into repricing across the yield curve and equity sector rotations within the first minutes after publication.
Related Events

FOMC Rate Decision October 2026 – The October 28 rate decision is announced the day before PCE; the October 29 PCE data will be the first inflation check after the October policy stance is confirmed.
US CPI Report October 2026 – Released October 14, providing the September CPI reading used to calibrate PCE forecasts for the October 29 release.
US Gross Domestic Product September 2026 – The Q2 2026 third estimate released September 30, providing the finalised H1 2026 growth baseline before Q3 estimates begin.

Frequently Asked Questions
Why is PCE released the day after the FOMC decision in October?
The BEA releases PCE on a fixed monthly schedule tied to the reference data month, not to the FOMC calendar. October 29 falls on the FOMC schedule’s publication date for September PCE data. The proximity is coincidental, but the sequencing means the FOMC makes its October decision without the September PCE print, which arrives the following morning.
When is the October 2026 PCE report released?
The BEA will publish the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, October 29, 2026, alongside the GDP Q3 2026 advance estimate.
How does October 29 PCE affect the December FOMC decision?
The September PCE reading is the first in a sequence of three key inflation data points (September PCE, October PCE on November 25, and November CPI on December 10) that will inform the December 9 FOMC meeting. A declining September PCE starts the disinflation sequence needed to justify a December rate cut. A persistent or rising reading would push December toward a hold.

US Initial Jobless Claims: October 29, 2026
2026-10-29 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (12:30 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Not yet published for this week; continuing claims recently near 1.78 million
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims
The US Department of Labor publishes its weekly initial jobless claims report on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 pm London). The release covers the week ending October 24, 2026, and counts the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It is one of the most timely gauges of the US labour market and is watched closely by the Federal Reserve, currency traders and anyone tracking the health of the world’s largest economy. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the week ending October 24, 2026 had not been published at the time this page was prepared. Economists’ estimates for weekly claims typically appear on financial data terminals only a day or two before release, so check back closer to Thursday for an updated figure. Recent weekly readings through 2026 have generally sat in a range described by Trading Economics as showing “some resilience in the US labor market” even as continuing claims, the number of people still receiving benefits after their first week, hovered near 1.78 million.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Initial claims
To be confirmed on release
Not yet published

Continuing claims
Around 1.78 million (recent weeks)
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Above consensus
Bond yields could fall, dollar could soften, as traders price in a weaker labour market and a more dovish Fed
More people are losing jobs than expected, a warning sign for hiring and consumer spending

In line with consensus
Muted market reaction, little change to Fed rate expectations
The labour market is behaving broadly as expected, no fresh signal for policy

Below consensus
Yields and the dollar could firm as traders trim bets on future rate cuts
Fewer people are filing for benefits than expected, a sign of continued labour market strength

Why it matters this week
Weekly claims data has taken on extra weight in 2026 because it arrives faster than the monthly jobs report and offers a near real-time read on layoffs. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly said it is watching the labour market closely alongside inflation when deciding on interest rates, and a run of higher claims readings can shift expectations for future rate cuts within weeks. Continuing claims, which track people who remain on benefits after an initial filing, have been treated by economists as a useful signal of how hard it is for laid-off workers to find new jobs, according to Trading Economics.
Because the US labour market remains the benchmark against which other major economies are measured, a surprise in either direction tends to ripple beyond American borders. Sharp moves in US Treasury yields following the release can affect borrowing costs in the UK and eurozone, while a weaker dollar tends to lift the pound and the euro, and vice versa if claims come in unexpectedly low.
What It Means for Your Money
If claims rise more than expected, it can be read as a sign the labour market is cooling. That often pushes bond yields lower, which can eventually feed through to slightly cheaper mortgage rates in the US, and sometimes abroad if global yields follow. Savers holding cash may see interest rates on deposit accounts drift lower over time if markets expect the Fed to cut rates sooner.
For anyone with a pension or investment portfolio, weaker labour data can lift share prices in the short run if it raises hopes of rate cuts, though a genuinely weak jobs market can eventually hurt company profits and wages. If you hold euros or pounds, a softer US labour market can nudge the dollar down, meaning it takes fewer pounds or euros to buy dollar-priced goods, holidays or investments.
None of these effects are guaranteed from a single week’s data. Claims figures are volatile week to week, and markets usually wait for a clear trend across several releases before making major moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the October 29, 2026 jobless claims report released?
The Department of Labor publishes the report at 8:30 am ET, which is 12:30 pm in London.
What counts as a big miss versus consensus?
Economists generally treat a move of more than 15,000 to 20,000 claims away from consensus as notable, though the size of any market reaction also depends on the broader trend in recent weeks.
When is the next jobless claims report?
Initial jobless claims are published every Thursday. The following week’s report covers the period after October 24, 2026.
Where does the data come from?
The figures come directly from state unemployment insurance offices and are compiled and released by the US Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration.
← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims

ECB Rate Decision October 2026
2026-10-29 08:45 - 09:45 (America/New_York)
Next ECB Rate Decision: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 1:45 pm CET (8:45 am ET, 12:45 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: ECB Rate Decision.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous ECB Rate DecisionNext ECB Rate Decision →
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 13:45 CET. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will follow at 14:30 CET. October is a non-projection meeting in the ECB’s 2026 schedule, meaning no updated Staff Macroeconomic Projections will be published alongside the decision. The ECB’s deposit facility rate currently stands at 2.00%, following two consecutive holds in March and April 2026 as the Governing Council assessed elevated inflation against growing recession risks for the eurozone. The October meeting follows the September 10 decision, which will have been the third meeting of the ECB’s post-June-2026 policy cycle, and precedes the all-important December 17 year-end projection meeting.
The European Central Bank and Its Mandate
The European Central Bank (the ECB) maintains price stability for the 20-member euro area, with its primary mandate being HICP inflation close to but below 2% over the medium term. The Governing Council meets seven times in 2026, on a schedule of approximately every six weeks: March 19, April 30, June 11, July 23, September 10, October 29, and December 17. The deposit facility rate, currently 2.00%, is the ECB’s most operationally significant policy rate.
October is not one of the ECB’s four quarterly projection meetings (March, June, September, December). This means no new staff inflation or GDP forecasts will be released on October 29. The Governing Council’s decision and President Lagarde’s press conference will be the sole communications. As a non-projection meeting, October’s primary significance is as a bridge between the September data-rich decision and the December year-end review. It may deliver a rate change if the data between September and late October provides compelling new evidence, or it may confirm the trajectory signalled at September and defer to December for any major policy shift.
ECB October Meeting: October 29, 2026
The October 29 Governing Council meeting will take stock of data released after the September 10 meeting, including the first read of eurozone Q3 2026 GDP, September flash CPI, and the latest labour market figures. By October, the ECB will have had roughly four months of data since the assumed June 2026 rate hike to 2.25%, enough time to assess whether the tightening is having its intended effect on inflation without unnecessarily damaging growth. The October meeting follows one of the ECB’s most watched preceding decisions: September 10, which will itself have been informed by the full summer data flow and updated quarterly staff projections.
The ECB’s challenge in October will be assessing whether the Middle East energy price shock that drove the June 2026 tightening has proven temporary or persistent. Energy prices, particularly natural gas and oil, are highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, and by October the duration and intensity of the price shock will be clearer. If core HICP inflation (excluding energy and food) has remained well-contained below 2.5%, and headline inflation has started to moderate as energy base effects kick in, the case for pausing or reversing any tightening becomes stronger. Conversely, if second-round effects have broadened, October would need to either hold firm or consider further tightening. The decision will be announced at 13:45 CET, with the press conference at 14:30 CET.
What to Expect
Non-projection meetings rarely produce surprises unless the data between the preceding SEP meeting and the current meeting has shifted dramatically. The most likely October outcome is a hold at whatever level the deposit rate stands following September, with forward guidance focused on the December decision. However, the October press conference and statement will be closely watched for any language changes that signal the end of the tightening cycle, or alternatively, a further hike at December.
The ECB’s October decision is uniquely positioned close to the US FOMC October 27-28 meeting, making it a global central bank coordination point. If the Fed has cut at its October meeting (or is expected to), the ECB will face questions about the divergence between US and European monetary policy and its implications for the euro and eurozone growth. Lagarde has historically been clear that the ECB sets policy for the euro area based on eurozone data, independent of Fed decisions. The ECB Rate Decision June 2026 remains the foundational decision shaping October’s context.
Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Deposit Rate
Notes

Mar 2026
Hold
2.00%
Inflation at 2.6% projection

Apr 2026
Hold
2.00%
Stagflation risk; Iran war impact

Jun 2026
TBD (projections)
TBD (mkt: 2.25%)
98% hike probability

Jul 2026
TBD
TBD
Non-projection

Sep 2026
TBD (projections)
TBD
Quarterly projections meeting

Oct 2026
TBD (Oct 29)
TBD
This meeting; non-projection

Sources: European Central Bank; CNBC; Central Banking. Deposit rate is the ECB deposit facility rate. Market probability from ECB-Watch (June 2026). “TBD” indicates pending decisions.
Market Impact Scenarios

Hold – The base case for a non-projection meeting following a September decision. A hold at October, with neutral or mildly dovish language pointing to December as the next potential action point, would be broadly market-neutral. The euro might drift lower if markets interpret October as a hold-and-review ahead of a December cut.
Hike (+25bp) – A hike at October would signal the ECB has found fresh reasons to tighten between September and late October, likely driven by a new energy price spike or evidence that second-round inflation effects have spread. This would strengthen the euro, push eurozone bond yields higher, and pressure equities. The Transmission Protection Instrument would be closely watched for fragmentation risk in peripheral markets.
Cut (-25bp) – A cut at October, while possible if data has been uniformly disinflationary since September, would be unusual at a non-projection meeting. It would signal urgency about the growth outlook and would strongly support eurozone equities and bonds while weakening the euro.

Press Conference and Forward Guidance
President Lagarde’s October press conference at 14:30 CET will be the ECB’s primary signalling vehicle for December, given the absence of staff projections at this meeting. The market will be listening for explicit or implicit guidance on whether December is a “live” meeting for a rate change, and whether the ECB sees the inflation trajectory as broadly consistent with returning to 2% within the forecast horizon. Any reference to specific data thresholds or milestones the ECB needs to see before acting will be a key forward guidance signal.
October also falls close to the ECB’s annual framework review cycle, and any announcements about operational framework changes or the ECB’s balance sheet normalisation pace could intersect with rate expectations. The interaction between rate decisions and quantitative tightening (the ongoing reduction of the ECB’s asset portfolio) will be a topic at this late-year meeting.
Related Events

ECB Rate Decision June 2026 – The June projection meeting is the foundational decision of the 2026 policy cycle that all subsequent October and December decisions build upon.
FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The US Fed’s October 27-28 meeting falls just before the ECB’s October 29 decision, creating a two-day G2 central bank window of potential market volatility.
Bank of England MPC Rate Decision June 2026 – The BoE’s monetary policy context influences sterling/euro dynamics that the ECB monitors as part of its financial conditions assessment.

Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the ECB hold a meeting in October if no projections are published?
The ECB’s seven-meeting annual schedule provides the Governing Council with regular opportunities to respond to rapidly changing economic conditions, not just at the four quarterly projection meetings. Non-projection meetings like October allow the ECB to adjust policy between the September and December projection updates if new data warrants action. They also serve as important communication events through the press conference, allowing the ECB to update markets on how it is assessing evolving conditions.
When will the ECB October 2026 decision be announced?
The Governing Council will publish its monetary policy decision at 13:45 CET on Thursday, October 29, 2026. President Lagarde’s press conference will begin at 14:30 CET (8:45 a.m. EDT). No updated Staff Macroeconomic Projections will be released at this meeting.
How does the ECB’s October decision relate to the December projection meeting?
October serves as a bridge between the September SEP (the last quarterly projection before year-end) and December’s year-end SEP. If October produces a rate hold with neutral language, December becomes the year-end assessment where the Governing Council can signal whether 2026 has closed at its terminal rate or whether 2027 will involve a new easing cycle. If October delivers a rate change, December becomes the point at which the ECB formally incorporates that change into its updated macroeconomic projections and confirms the new policy trajectory.

Germany CPI Flash October 2026
2026-10-29 09:00 - 10:00 (America/New_York)
Next Germany CPI Flash: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 2:00 pm CET (9:00 am ET, 1:00 pm London). Covers September 2026 data.
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
2.9% y/y (August 2026 flash)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Germany CPI Flash.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Germany CPI Flash
Germany’s flash consumer price index (CPI) for September 2026 is expected on October 29, 2026 at 9:00 am ET (2:00 pm CET, 1:00 pm London time), published by the German Federal Statistical Office, known as Destatis. This flash estimate covers price changes recorded across Germany’s states in September 2026 and gives the first read on inflation in Europe’s largest economy before the final, more detailed figure follows roughly two weeks later. Full schedule and background: Germany CPI Flash.
What is the Germany CPI Flash?
The CPI flash is a preliminary estimate of how much prices for a typical basket of goods and services have risen or fallen over the past year and the past month. Destatis compiles the figure from price data gathered in Germany’s federal states, released ahead of the fully confirmed national index, which is why it is called a “flash” or preliminary reading.
Alongside the national CPI, Destatis and Eurostat also track the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), a version calculated using a methodology common across the European Union so that inflation rates can be compared directly between member states. Both measures typically move together but can diverge slightly month to month.
Markets watch this release closely because Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone and its inflation trend heavily influences expectations for eurozone-wide inflation, which in turn feeds into interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). A surprise in the German number often moves the euro and eurozone government bond yields within minutes of publication.
When is the September 2026 CPI flash released?
Destatis is scheduled to publish the September 2026 flash estimate on October 29, 2026 at 9:00 am ET, which is 2:00 pm in Germany (CET) and 1:00 pm in London. The figures are published on the Destatis website and distributed to newswires simultaneously. Destatis has not yet formally confirmed this exact date on its release calendar as this page went to press; the statistical office typically publishes the flash estimate for a given month on the last working day of that month or the first days of the following month, so the date given here reflects that usual pattern and should be treated as indicative until confirmed.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the September 2026 flash CPI has not yet been published by major polling services such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Economists’ estimates typically emerge in the days immediately before the release, once regional state-level CPI figures for Germany begin trickling out earlier in the same week.
The most recent confirmed reading is the August 2026 flash estimate, which showed German CPI inflation running at 2.9% year on year, according to Destatis. That was below the roughly 3.0% to 3.1% economists had pencilled in ahead of the release, according to a report from investinglive.com, and up from 2.8% in July. The harmonised HICP measure came in at 2.9% year on year in August, also below the roughly 3.1% forecast, per the same report, while core CPI (which strips out volatile food and energy prices) held at 2.4% year on year.

Measure
Prior (August 2026)
Consensus (September 2026)

CPI, year on year
2.9%
Not yet published

HICP, year on year
2.9%
Not yet published

Core CPI, year on year
2.4%
Not yet published

CPI, month on month
0.2%
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus (higher inflation than expected)
Euro could firm and eurozone bond yields could rise, as traders price in a slower pace of ECB rate cuts
Prices in shops and on bills are rising faster than hoped, which could keep borrowing costs higher for longer across the eurozone

In line with consensus
Limited market reaction, since the print confirms the existing trend already priced in by traders
Inflation is behaving roughly as expected, so there is unlikely to be a sudden change in mortgage or savings rates because of this release alone

Below consensus (lower inflation than expected)
Euro could soften and yields could fall, as traders lean towards a more dovish ECB path
Price pressures are easing faster than expected, which could support the case for interest rate cuts sooner

These are possible market reactions based on how traders have historically responded to inflation surprises, not predictions of what will happen this time.
Why does this release matter right now?
German inflation has hovered close to the ECB’s 2% target through much of 2026, but readings above 2.8% to 2.9% in recent months, as recorded by Destatis, have kept policymakers cautious about cutting interest rates further. The ECB has repeatedly said it is watching services inflation and wage growth closely, both of which have been stickier than headline goods prices across the eurozone.
Because Germany accounts for roughly a quarter of eurozone output, its flash CPI print is often treated by traders as an early signal for the eurozone-wide HICP flash estimate, published by Eurostat a few days later. A meaningful surprise in the German number, in either direction, tends to shift expectations for the ECB’s next policy meeting and can move German Bund yields, the benchmark for borrowing costs across much of Europe.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and borrowing: If German (and by extension eurozone) inflation runs hotter than expected, the ECB may hold interest rates higher for longer, which keeps variable mortgage repayments and new borrowing costs elevated across the eurozone. A cooler reading strengthens the case for rate cuts, which could eventually filter through to cheaper mortgages and loans.
Savings: Higher-for-longer rates tend to mean better returns on savings accounts and fixed deposits held in euros, while a dovish surprise that pulls rate expectations lower could see savings rates drift down over time.
Jobs and wages: Persistent inflation erodes the real value of pay rises. If German inflation stays sticky, workers may push for higher wage settlements, which employers and policymakers watch as a sign of whether inflation could become self-reinforcing.
Prices on the high street: The CPI directly reflects what people pay for groceries, energy, rent and other everyday costs in Germany, so a rising rate signals a squeeze on household budgets, while a falling rate offers some relief.
Investments, pensions and currencies: The euro often reacts within minutes of the release, which matters for anyone holding European shares, bonds or pension funds with euro exposure, as well as for UK and US travellers and importers dealing in euros. A weaker euro can make eurozone exports cheaper and imports more expensive, with knock-on effects felt as far as Asian exporters competing with German manufacturers.
Related events

The previous Germany CPI flash release: Germany CPI Flash, September 2026
The eurozone-wide HICP flash estimate, published by Eurostat a few days after the German figure
The next European Central Bank interest rate decision, which weighs the latest inflation data from Germany and other member states

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Germany CPI flash released?
The release is scheduled for 9:00 am ET, 2:00 pm CET (German local time) and 1:00 pm London time on October 29, 2026, though Destatis has not formally confirmed this exact date yet.
How should I read the flash CPI figure?
Focus on the year-on-year percentage change for the headline rate and compare it with the prior month and any published consensus; a rate above the ECB’s 2% target signals ongoing price pressure, while a move towards target suggests inflation is cooling.
How does this data affect ECB interest rate decisions?
The ECB uses eurozone-wide inflation data, of which Germany’s CPI is a major component, to decide whether to hold, cut or raise interest rates, so a hotter or cooler than expected German print can shift market expectations for the ECB’s next move.
Where can I find the official release?
The figures are published directly on the Destatis press release calendar website.
When is the next Germany CPI flash release?
The following flash estimate, covering October 2026 data, is typically published in late November 2026; check the Destatis release calendar for the confirmed date.
← Previous Germany CPI Flash

AAPL Earnings October 2026
2026-10-29 12:00 - 13:00 (America/New_York)
Next AAPL Quarterly Earnings: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
$109.4bn revenue, $2.02 EPS (Q3 FY2026, July 30, 2026)
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous AAPL Quarterly Earnings
Apple is expected to report its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings on October 29, 2026, at approximately 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm London time), though Apple has not yet confirmed the exact date. This report will cover the September quarter, which includes the crucial early weeks of iPhone 17 sales and the run-up to the holiday shopping season. Investors, fund managers and anyone with money in a pension or index fund that holds Apple shares watch this release closely because Apple is one of the largest companies in the world by market value. Full schedule and background on Apple’s reporting pattern: AAPL Quarterly Earnings hub.
What is Apple’s Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report?
Apple reports its results four times a year, at the end of each fiscal quarter, in a press release followed by a conference call with analysts. The fourth fiscal quarter, which typically ends in late September, is watched closely because it captures the first days of sales for that year’s new iPhone lineup, plus updates on the Services division (App Store, iCloud, Apple Music and similar subscriptions), Mac, iPad and wearables. Chief executive Tim Cook and chief financial officer Kevan Parekh usually lead the call, discussing revenue, profit margins, and giving guidance for the following (holiday) quarter, which is Apple’s biggest of the year.
When is the report and how to follow it
Apple has not yet confirmed the exact date for this release. The company traditionally reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results in the last week of October, so October 29, 2026 is a reasonable estimate based on that pattern rather than a confirmed date. When Apple does confirm, the release typically appears as a press statement on Apple’s investor relations website, followed by a live-streamed earnings call roughly 30 minutes later. Retail investors can listen via Apple’s investor relations page without needing a broker account. Previous quarter: AAPL earnings, July 2026.
What to expect
A consensus forecast for Apple’s fiscal Q4 2026 revenue and earnings per share (EPS) has not yet been published by data providers such as Bloomberg or Refinitiv, as these estimates typically firm up in the weeks immediately before the report. Analysts will focus on several areas once forecasts are published:

iPhone revenue, given this is the first full quarter of iPhone 17 sales.
Services revenue, which has been a point of scrutiny; in the prior quarter, Services growth fell short of some analysts’ expectations even as the company beat overall revenue and profit estimates, according to Yahoo Finance.
Gross margin, watched for signs of tariff-related cost pressure or component price changes.
Guidance for the holiday quarter, Apple’s largest quarter of the year, which sets the tone for retail spending expectations into 2027.

In its most recent report, for the third fiscal quarter of 2026 (the June quarter), Apple posted revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16% year on year, and diluted EPS of $2.02, according to MacRumors and Apple’s own results release. That followed a record first fiscal quarter, when Apple reported revenue of $143.8 billion and EPS of $2.84 for the December 2025 quarter, according to Apple’s official 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. These two data points give a sense of the growth trend analysts will be extrapolating from ahead of the October report, though a full four-quarter comparison table is not included here because verified figures for the second fiscal quarter are not yet confirmed from a primary source.
The stakes for this particular report are heightened by the timing: it falls just before the peak US holiday shopping season and gives the clearest early signal of how the iPhone 17 range is selling against rivals from Samsung and Chinese manufacturers in markets across Asia and Europe. Analysts at investment banks typically publish updated price targets on Apple stock within hours of the release, and these can move sentiment across the wider technology sector on the day.
What the outcome could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Beat on revenue and EPS, strong guidance
Shares likely to rise, other big technology stocks may follow
iPhone and Services sales came in stronger than expected, and Apple expects a strong holiday quarter

In line with expectations
Muted or mixed share reaction
Apple performed roughly as forecast, with no major surprises for investors

Miss on revenue, EPS or guidance
Shares likely to fall, pressure on broader technology indices
Demand for iPhones or Services was weaker than hoped, or Apple expects a softer holiday season

What It Means for Your Money
Apple is one of the largest constituents of major US stock indices, so its share price movements affect many pension funds, workplace pension default funds and index-tracking investment funds held by ordinary savers in the UK, Europe and Asia, even for people who have never bought an individual share. A strong or weak report can move the wider technology sector and, at times, broader stock markets. For consumers, the report offers a read on iPhone demand and pricing, which can hint at whether Apple is likely to raise or hold prices in its next product cycle. Currency moves matter too: Apple generates a large share of revenue outside the United States, so a stronger dollar against the pound or the euro can reduce the dollar value of overseas sales, a dynamic the company often mentions on its earnings call. None of this should be read as investment advice, but it explains why headlines about Apple’s results ripple beyond individual shareholders.
Related events

AAPL earnings, July 2026
US non-farm payrolls report, published around the same time each month
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which influence how investors value technology shares

Frequently Asked Questions
Is the October 29, 2026 date confirmed?
No. Apple has not yet confirmed the date, and the company typically announces the exact date around two to three weeks in advance. October 29 is an estimate based on Apple’s usual pattern of reporting fiscal fourth-quarter results in the last week of October.
What time does Apple report earnings?
Based on the schedule for this event, the report and call are expected around 12:00 pm ET, which is 4:00 pm in London.
What was Apple’s most recent quarterly result?
In its fiscal third quarter of 2026 (the June quarter), reported on July 30, 2026, Apple posted revenue of $109.4 billion and diluted EPS of $2.02, according to the company’s results release.
Where can I watch the earnings call live?
Apple streams its earnings call on its investor relations website, typically starting shortly after the press release is issued.
Has a consensus forecast been published for this report?
Not yet. Analyst consensus estimates for revenue and EPS usually firm up in the days before the report, closer to late October 2026.
← Previous AAPL Quarterly Earnings

AMZN Earnings October 2026
2026-10-29 12:00 - 13:00 (America/New_York)
Next AMZN Quarterly Earnings: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
EPS around $1.96-$2.00, revenue near $205.65bn (analyst estimates cited by ChartMill and TipRanks)
Prior
Q3 2026 company guidance: net sales $197.0bn-$202.0bn, operating income $22.5bn-$26.5bn (issued with Q2 2026 results)
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous AMZN Quarterly Earnings
Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) is expected to release its third-quarter 2026 financial results on Thursday, October 29, 2026, with the earnings call beginning at approximately 12:00pm ET (4:00pm London time). The results are published by Amazon’s investor relations team and cover the three months from July to September 2026, spanning the company’s retail, advertising and Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing divisions. Because Amazon is one of the largest companies by market value in the S&P 500 and a heavy weighting in most global index funds, its results tend to move broader markets, not just the stock itself.
The exact date has not yet been confirmed by Amazon; the company has not published a formal earnings calendar entry for this quarter at the time of writing. Amazon has historically reported Q3 results on a Thursday in the second half of October, roughly three to four weeks after quarter-end, so late October is the standard pattern, and this page will be updated once Amazon confirms the date.
Full schedule and background: US CPI report dates.
What is the AMZN Q3 2026 earnings release?
Quarterly earnings are a legal requirement for publicly listed companies: Amazon must disclose its revenue, profit, costs and forward guidance to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and to shareholders. The release usually consists of a written press release with financial statements, followed by a live conference call where Amazon’s chief executive and chief financial officer take questions from Wall Street analysts. Investors, fund managers and financial journalists use the numbers to judge whether the company is growing as expected, and whether its guidance for the following quarter is stronger or weaker than the market had priced in.
For Amazon specifically, three segments dominate attention: North America retail, International retail, and AWS. AWS is the smallest by revenue but the largest by operating profit, so even a modest change in AWS growth or margin can move the share price more than a large swing in retail sales.
When is the AMZN Q3 2026 earnings release and how to follow it
The release is expected before the US market opens or shortly after, with the earnings call at 12:00pm ET (4:00pm London, 5:00pm Central European Time). The press release and call details are published on Amazon’s investor relations website, which also hosts a live audio webcast and the accompanying slide deck. There is no ticket or registration required to listen; the call is open to the public, though only invited analysts typically ask questions.
As noted above, this date is an estimate based on Amazon’s usual reporting rhythm rather than a confirmed date from the company. Investors who need the exact date and time should check Amazon’s investor relations site in the weeks before the event, since large companies sometimes shift the date by a few days.
What to expect
A consensus forecast compiled from sell-side analysts put the average estimate for Amazon’s next quarterly earnings at around $1.96 to $2.00 per share, with revenue near $205.65 billion, according to data cited by ChartMill and TipRanks. These figures move as analysts update their models in the weeks before the release, so readers should treat any pre-release number as an estimate rather than a fixed target.
Amazon’s own guidance, issued alongside its Q2 2026 results, projected third-quarter net sales of between $197.0 billion and $202.0 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 9% to 12%, according to figures reported by Simply Wall St. The company also guided operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion for the quarter, compared with $17.4 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Management flagged an unfavourable foreign exchange impact of roughly 80 basis points (a basis point is one hundredth of one percentage point) on the growth rate.
Analysts are likely to focus on three things: whether AWS revenue growth accelerates further on the back of artificial intelligence demand, whether retail operating margins hold up as Amazon continues to invest in same-day delivery and logistics, and what guidance management gives for the crucial fourth-quarter holiday shopping period. A verified, official four-quarter revenue and EPS history was not available at the time of writing, so it has been omitted rather than estimated.
What the outcome could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Beat on revenue and EPS, strong guidance
Shares likely to rise, AWS and advertising growth seen as validating AI investment
Amazon is growing profit faster than expected across cloud and retail

In line with consensus
Muted reaction, focus shifts to guidance commentary on the call
Amazon performed broadly as forecast, with no major surprise either way

Miss on revenue, EPS or guidance
Shares likely to fall, particularly if AWS growth slows or margins narrow
Investment in AI infrastructure or logistics may be weighing on near-term profit

What It Means for Your Money
Amazon is one of the largest holdings in most global index funds and workplace pensions, so a sharp move in its share price after earnings can nudge the value of retirement savings even for people who have never bought a single Amazon share directly. A strong AWS quarter tends to lift sentiment across the technology sector broadly, including chipmakers and other cloud providers, while a weak quarter can drag on the wider Nasdaq index.
For UK and European investors, Amazon’s results also carry currency implications: a stronger dollar linked to robust US earnings can make imports slightly more expensive in pounds and euros, while a weaker dollar has the opposite effect. Consumers rarely feel a direct effect from a single earnings report, though sustained weakness in Amazon’s retail guidance can be an early signal of softening household spending in the United States, which analysts sometimes use as a broader indicator of consumer health. For online sellers and small businesses that rely on Amazon’s marketplace or AWS hosting, changes in fee structures or investment priorities announced on the call can matter more directly than the headline numbers.
Related events

Previous quarter: AMZN Earnings July 2026
US non-farm payrolls report, typically released the first Friday of each month
Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which influences the discount rate used to value growth stocks like Amazon

Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amazon report Q3 2026 earnings?
The earnings call is expected at approximately 12:00pm ET, which is 4:00pm in London, though the date itself has not yet been confirmed by Amazon.
What is the consensus forecast for Amazon’s Q3 2026 earnings?
Sell-side analysts surveyed by data providers such as ChartMill and TipRanks put consensus EPS at around $1.96 to $2.00 and revenue near $205.65 billion, though these estimates can shift before the release.
Where can I watch the Amazon earnings call live?
Amazon streams the call live on its investor relations website, ir.aboutamazon.com, with no registration required to listen.
Why does Amazon’s earnings report affect markets outside the US?
Amazon is a major weighting in global index funds and pension portfolios, and its AWS results are often read as a proxy for broader demand for cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure worldwide.
Has Amazon confirmed the exact October 2026 earnings date?
Not at the time of writing. Amazon typically reports Q3 results on a Thursday in the second half of October, roughly three to four weeks after the quarter ends.
← Previous AMZN Quarterly Earnings

Bank of Japan Rate Decision October 2026
2026-10-30 00:00 - 23:59 UTC
Next Bank of Japan Rate Decision: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:00 pm JST (11:00 pm ET, 3:00 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Bank of Japan Rate Decision.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Bank of Japan Rate DecisionNext Bank of Japan Rate Decision →
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its October 2026 monetary policy decision on Friday, 30 October 2026. The Policy Board meets over two days (29-30 October), with the decision, updated Quarterly Outlook Report, and “The Bank’s View” statement released on 30 October. As of June 2026, the BoJ is navigating a gradual tightening cycle that began in 2024, with the policy rate at 0.75%. October is one of four quarterly Outlook Report meetings, making it a significant communication event for the Bank’s updated economic and inflation projections.
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision: October 30, 2026
The October meeting will be closely watched given its position deep in the 2026 tightening cycle. By October, the Policy Board will have assessed the outcomes of the July and September meetings, along with several months of inflation, wage, and activity data from Japan. The Bank’s previous April 2026 decision to hold at 0.75% was marked by an unusual 6-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favour of an immediate hike, signalling strong internal pressure toward 1.0%.
October is one of four quarterly meetings accompanied by an updated Outlook Report, giving it added importance as a major communication vehicle. The Outlook Report’s revised central projections for core CPI in fiscal years 2026 and 2027 will provide the most comprehensive public signal of when the BoJ expects to reach its sustainable 2% inflation target, and by extension, when further rate hikes might follow.
What to Expect
By October, the BoJ will have a clear picture of Japan’s summer inflation dynamics, including CPI data for July, August, and potentially September. Japan’s core CPI has been tracking above 2% through 2026, and the Bank’s April forecast raised its fiscal 2026 core inflation projection to 2.8%, largely driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Whether that forecast is borne out by actual data will be central to the October deliberations.
Japan’s wage dynamics remain critical. The spring shunto wage negotiations for fiscal 2026 produced solid results, with major companies agreeing to meaningful nominal wage increases. The BoJ has argued that a self-reinforcing wage-price cycle is a necessary condition for sustainably reaching 2% inflation. Evidence that wage growth is translating into sustained household spending and services price increases would strengthen the case for another hike at, or before, October.
The global backdrop also plays a significant role. The FOMC decision on 28 October 2026, just two days before the BoJ meeting, will provide the most recent signal on US monetary policy and the US-Japan rate differential, which directly influences the yen. A Federal Reserve hold or cut would narrow that differential, potentially supporting the yen without any BoJ action. A Fed hike would push in the opposite direction, potentially providing additional impetus for the BoJ to act.
If the BoJ has already hiked to 1.0% at the July or September meeting, October’s decision will focus on whether to continue tightening beyond 1.0% or to pause and assess the impact of prior hikes on the Japanese economy and financial conditions.
Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Rate
Vote

April 2026
Hold
0.75%
6-3

March 2026
Hold
0.75%
8-1

January 2026
Hold
0.75%
Majority

December 2025
Hike +25bp
0.75%
Majority

October 2025
Hold
0.50%
Majority

July 2025
Hold
0.50%
Majority

June 2025
Hold
0.50%
Majority

January 2025
Hike +25bp
0.50%
Majority

Market Impact Scenarios

Hold (if already at 1.0% from prior meeting) – If the BoJ has already hiked to 1.0% at July or September, October is likely a pause to assess impact. The yen may hold steady or weaken slightly. JGB yields would be stable. The Nikkei 225 would benefit from a stabilisation of yen strength concerns. The Outlook Report would provide guidance on whether the tightening cycle is complete or whether further hikes beyond 1.0% are being considered.
Hike 25bp to 1.00% (if still at 0.75%) – If the BoJ has not yet moved to 1.0%, October would be a natural meeting point given the Quarterly Outlook Report. The yen would strengthen, JGB yields would rise, and the Nikkei 225 would likely fall on yen appreciation and higher borrowing costs. Global carry trade positions would be disrupted, given Japan’s historic role as a low-rate funding currency.
Hold with hawkish Outlook – A hold accompanied by upward revisions to the inflation forecast and explicit signals about conditions for a further hike would be taken as a conditional hawkish signal. The yen would strengthen modestly. Bond yields would rise on the short end. Markets would price a December hike more firmly.

Quarterly Outlook Report and Press Conference
October is one of four Quarterly Outlook Report meetings, making it one of the most data-rich BoJ decisions of the year. The Outlook Report will contain the Policy Board’s revised forecasts for core CPI, real GDP growth, and economic activity in Japan for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. It will also contain a qualitative assessment of upside and downside risks to the economic outlook, including any updated assessment of the Middle East conflict and global trade conditions.
The Governor’s press conference will follow the release and will be the primary channel for the Bank to communicate any change in its forward guidance. Markets will watch carefully for any shift in the characterisation of inflation dynamics: whether the Board describes the current above-target inflation as “sustainable” and “driven by domestic demand and wages” rather than “cost-push”. This distinction is central to the Bank’s assessment of when conditions justify continued normalisation.
Related Events

FOMC Rate Decision October 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s decision on 28 October, just two days before the BoJ, directly influencing the US-Japan rate differential and yen movements.
ECB Rate Decision October 2026 – The ECB’s October decision on 29 October, one day before the BoJ, providing further global context.
FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s December decision, which will follow the BoJ’s October and December meetings and influence year-end conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Quarterly Outlook Report and why does it matter?
The Bank of Japan’s Quarterly Outlook Report is published four times a year (January, April, July, October) alongside the rate decision. It contains the Policy Board’s updated central projections for core CPI and real GDP in Japan, together with a detailed analysis of domestic and global economic conditions and risk factors. The Outlook Report is the Bank’s most comprehensive forward-looking communication and is used by financial markets to assess the likely trajectory of the policy rate.
When will the October 2026 BoJ decision be announced?
The decision and Quarterly Outlook Report will be released on Friday, 30 October 2026, following the two-day meeting on 29-30 October. The release typically occurs around midday JST (3:00-4:00 am GMT), with the Governor’s press conference following in the afternoon.
Why does the Bank of Japan’s policy rate affect global asset prices?
Japan has been one of the world’s largest sources of outward capital flows, driven by years of near-zero domestic interest rates that encouraged Japanese investors and institutions to seek higher returns abroad. As the BoJ raises rates, the return on Japanese assets improves, incentivising repatriation of capital. This reduces global liquidity, particularly affecting emerging market assets, commodities, and other carry-trade beneficiaries. The yen carry trade, in which investors borrow cheaply in yen to fund higher-yielding positions elsewhere, is unwound when BoJ hikes or signals tightening, creating volatility in global financial markets.
Featured image: Photo by Clement Souchet on Unsplash.

Eurozone GDP Flash October 2026
2026-10-30 06:00 - 07:00 (America/New_York)
Next Eurozone GDP Flash: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:00 am CET (6:00 am ET, 10:00 am London). Covers Q2 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
+0.1% QoQ, +0.8% YoY (Q1 2026 flash)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Eurozone GDP Flash.
Updated September 2, 2026

The Eurozone GDP Flash estimate for October 30, 2026 is a preliminary reading of economic growth across the 20 countries that use the euro, covering Q2 2026 data. It is published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, at 11:00 am CET (6:00 am ET, 10:00 am London time). Full schedule and background: Eurozone GDP Flash.
What is the Eurozone GDP Flash estimate?
Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced across the euro area in a given period. The flash estimate is Eurostat’s first, fastest read on that figure, built from partial national accounts data submitted voluntarily by member states before the full dataset is available. It typically covers 80% to 99% of the bloc’s economic output at the time of release, according to Eurostat’s own methodology notes published alongside each release.
The headline number comes in two forms: the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) change, which shows whether the economy grew or shrank compared with the previous three months, and the year-on-year (YoY) change, which compares output with the same quarter a year earlier. Both are seasonally adjusted to strip out predictable patterns such as holiday spending or agricultural cycles.
Markets watch this release closely because it is the first hard evidence of how the euro area economy performed before slower, more detailed reports arrive. The European Central Bank (ECB) uses it, alongside inflation data, to judge whether interest rates need to rise, fall or stay unchanged. A flash estimate that surprises to the upside or downside can move the euro, European government bond yields and equity markets within minutes of publication.
When is the October Eurozone GDP Flash released?
Eurostat is scheduled to publish the flash estimate on Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:00 am Central European Time, which is 6:00 am Eastern Time and 10:00 am London time. The release appears on the Eurostat website within its Euro indicators news section, alongside a short statistical release and, later the same day, more detailed country breakdowns where available. This date follows Eurostat’s published release calendar and has not been flagged as provisional.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of publication, a consensus forecast from a major polling organisation such as Reuters or Bloomberg had not yet been compiled for this specific release. Forecasts for euro area GDP flash estimates typically firm up in the days immediately before release, once national statistical offices such as INSEE in France, Destatis in Germany and Istat in Italy have published their own preliminary figures.
The most recent published reading is the Q1 2026 flash estimate, which showed euro area GDP up 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year, according to Eurostat. That flash figure was subsequently revised down to a 0.2% quarterly contraction once fuller data arrived, a swing Eurostat and independent analysts attributed largely to volatile Irish national accounts data, according to reporting on the release cycle.

Measure
Prior reading
Consensus

GDP, quarter-on-quarter
+0.1% (Q1 2026 flash, later revised to -0.2%)
Not yet published

GDP, year-on-year
+0.8% (Q1 2026 flash)
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Euro could firm, eurozone bond yields may edge higher as traders trim expectations of further ECB rate cuts
The economy grew faster than expected, easing recession worries and reducing pressure on the ECB to loosen policy further

In line with consensus
Limited immediate market reaction, focus shifts to the accompanying country breakdowns and the following week’s inflation data
Growth matched expectations, so the broader picture for jobs, prices and ECB policy stays roughly on the same track

Below consensus
Euro could soften, European equities and bond yields often react as markets price in a higher chance of ECB support
The economy grew more slowly than hoped, which can raise the risk of a technical recession, defined as two straight quarters of contraction

These are possibilities drawn from how markets have typically reacted to prior surprises in this series, not predictions of what will happen on October 30, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
Euro area growth has been fragile through 2025 and into 2026. Eurostat’s own figures show GDP rising 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025 before slowing to a preliminary 0.1% in Q1 2026, a figure later revised into outright contraction once more complete data arrived. Analysts at FocusEconomics described the Q1 2026 flash as the weakest reading since late 2023, noting it fell short of the steady growth most economists had expected. Coverage of the following quarter’s flash estimate framed the release as the single most important data point ahead of the ECB’s next rate decision, since policymakers weigh growth momentum alongside inflation when setting borrowing costs.
The ECB has already cut rates several times since 2024 as inflation eased back toward its 2% target, and markets have periodically priced in a meaningful probability of further cuts around each GDP and inflation release. A weak GDP flash tends to reinforce the case for supporting growth through lower rates, while a stronger than expected number can reduce urgency for further easing. Because the flash estimate is provisional and prone to sizeable revisions, as the Q1 2026 episode showed, policymakers and investors treat it as an important but not definitive signal.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and borrowing: Weaker eurozone growth tends to support the case for lower ECB interest rates over time, which can eventually feed through to cheaper variable-rate mortgages and business loans across the euro area. Stronger growth reduces that pressure and can keep borrowing costs higher for longer.
Savings: Savings account and fixed-term deposit rates in the euro area broadly track ECB policy. A run of weak GDP prints that pushes rate cuts higher up the agenda can mean lower returns on cash savings in the months ahead.
Jobs and wages: GDP growth and employment tend to move together. A soft reading can be an early sign of a cooling labour market in manufacturing-heavy economies such as Germany, while resilient growth supports continued hiring and wage negotiations.
Prices and household budgets: A weaker economy can, over time, ease inflationary pressure by reducing demand, while a stronger than expected economy can keep price pressures, and therefore the cost of living, elevated for longer.
Investments, pensions and currencies: European equity markets and the euro often react to growth surprises within minutes of the flash release. UK investors with European equity funds or pension holdings, and US and Asian investors trading the euro against the dollar or yen, can see short-term price moves as a result. A softer euro also affects the cost of European holidays and imports for people outside the eurozone.

Related events

Eurozone flash inflation estimate, typically published in the days following the GDP flash
European Central Bank interest rate decision, which weighs growth and inflation data together
National GDP releases from Germany, France and Italy, published ahead of the euro area aggregate figure

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Eurozone GDP Flash released?
Eurostat publishes the release at 11:00 am Central European Time on October 30, 2026, which is 6:00 am Eastern Time and 10:00 am London time.
How do I read the Eurozone GDP Flash figures?
Look at both numbers: the quarter-on-quarter change shows short-term momentum, while the year-on-year change shows the broader growth trend over a full year. A negative quarter-on-quarter reading following an earlier negative quarter would signal a technical recession.
How does this release affect ECB interest rate decisions?
The ECB’s Governing Council weighs GDP growth alongside inflation when deciding whether to raise, cut or hold interest rates, so a notably weak or strong flash estimate can shift market expectations for the next ECB meeting.
Where can I find the official Eurozone GDP release?
The figures are published on the Eurostat website within its Euro indicators news releases, available to the public free of charge.
When is the next Eurozone GDP Flash estimate?
Eurostat publishes a new flash estimate roughly every quarter, generally around 30 days after each quarter ends, with the exact date confirmed on its release calendar.

Eurozone Unemployment October 2026 (30)
2026-10-30 06:00 - 07:00 (America/New_York)
Next Eurozone Unemployment: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:00 am CET (6:00 am ET, 10:00 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Not yet confirmed ahead of release
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Eurozone Unemployment.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Eurozone Unemployment
Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, releases the eurozone unemployment rate for September 2026 on October 30, 2026, at 6:00 am ET (11:00 am CET, 10:00 am London time). The release covers the 20 countries that use the euro and is one of the bloc’s key monthly labour-market indicators, alongside inflation and retail sales figures. Full schedule and background: Eurozone Unemployment.
The unemployment rate measures the share of the labour force that is out of work but actively seeking a job, expressed as a seasonally adjusted percentage. It is a low-impact release for markets compared with US payrolls or European Central Bank meetings, but it still feeds into the ECB’s assessment of how tight the labour market is and, by extension, how much room there is for wage growth and inflation pressure.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of publication, a consensus forecast has not yet been published for this specific release. Economists’ forecasts for Eurostat’s monthly unemployment figures are typically compiled by data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg in the days before release, so a median estimate is likely to appear closer to October 30, 2026.
Eurostat’s own release calendar confirms the October 30, 2026 publication date but does not itself set a forecast. Readers should check back nearer the release date for an updated consensus figure and the most recent prior reading.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Eurozone unemployment rate
Not yet confirmed, check Eurostat’s release for the previous month
Not yet published

Youth unemployment rate
Reported alongside the headline figure
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Above consensus
Euro may soften slightly, seen as a sign of a cooling labour market
More people are unemployed than expected, which could ease pressure on wages and inflation

In line with consensus
Limited market reaction
The labour market is behaving broadly as economists expected

Below consensus
Euro may firm modestly, seen as a sign of continued labour-market tightness
Fewer people are unemployed than expected, which can support consumer spending but also keep inflation pressure alive

Why it matters this week
The eurozone labour market has stayed historically tight in recent years, with unemployment hovering near record lows even as growth in the bloc has been sluggish. The European Central Bank watches this data closely because a persistently tight labour market can keep wage growth, and therefore underlying inflation, elevated even when headline price growth slows.
Because this is a low-impact release, it rarely moves markets on its own. Its main value is confirming or challenging the broader narrative that the ECB and investors are working from ahead of the bank’s next policy meeting, particularly if the figure diverges sharply from recent trends reported by Eurostat.
What It Means for Your Money
For most people in the eurozone, a single month’s unemployment figure will not change mortgage rates or savings returns overnight. But a sustained rise in unemployment tends to make the ECB more willing to cut interest rates, which can eventually lower borrowing costs on mortgages and loans while reducing returns on savings accounts.
A tighter labour market, by contrast, can support wage growth and consumer spending, which is good news for job security but can also keep inflation stickier, meaning the ECB may hold rates higher for longer. This affects everyone from savers comparing deposit rates to holders of euro-denominated investments and pensions.
For those outside the eurozone, the figure can move the euro against the pound, dollar and other currencies. A weaker euro makes European holidays and imports cheaper for UK and US consumers, while a stronger euro has the opposite effect and can influence the returns UK and US investors see on European assets.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the eurozone unemployment rate released?
Eurostat publishes the figure on October 30, 2026, at 6:00 am ET, which is 11:00 am CET and 10:00 am London time.
What would count as a big miss from consensus?
Once a consensus figure is published, a move of two or more tenths of a percentage point away from that estimate would generally be considered a significant surprise for this indicator.
When is the next eurozone unemployment report?
Eurostat publishes the unemployment rate monthly; the next release will cover October 2026 and typically follows about a month after this one, per the Eurostat release calendar.
Who publishes the eurozone unemployment figures?
Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office, compiles and releases the data using harmonised methodology across the 20 eurozone member states.
← Previous Eurozone Unemployment

China Official PMI October 2026
2026-10-30 21:30 - 22:30 (America/New_York)
Next China Official PMI: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 9:30 am CST (9:30 pm ET, 1:30 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Manufacturing 49.8, Non-Manufacturing 49.0 (August 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous China Official PMI
China’s Official PMI for October 2026 is due on Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 9:30 am China Standard Time (CST), which is 9:30 pm ET on October 30 in the United States and 1:30 am on October 31 in London. The survey is published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), together with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, and covers economic activity during October 2026. Full schedule and background: China Official PMI.
What is the China Official PMI?
The Official Purchasing Managers’ Index is a monthly survey of purchasing managers at several hundred manufacturing and services firms across China, most of them large and state-linked. Managers are asked whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and stock levels rose, fell or stayed unchanged compared with the previous month. The answers are combined into two headline figures: the Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Manufacturing (services and construction) PMI.
A reading above 50 signals expansion in that part of the economy, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The distance from 50, not just the direction, matters: a move from 49.0 to 49.8 still shows contraction but a slowing pace of decline, which markets often read as a stabilising signal.
Investors, currency traders and commodity markets watch this release closely because China is the world’s largest manufacturing economy and a major buyer of raw materials, machinery and energy. Because the official survey leans towards larger, state-owned firms, it is often read alongside the privately compiled Caixin PMI, which samples smaller, export-oriented businesses, to get a fuller picture of the Chinese economy.
When is the October Official PMI released?
The NBS is scheduled to publish the October 2026 Official PMI on Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 9:30 am CST (9:30 pm ET, 1:30 am London). The data is released directly on the National Bureau of Statistics website, with both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices published at the same time. NBS releases fall on a fixed monthly schedule regardless of weekends, so a Saturday publication date, as in this case, is normal for this series.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of this writing, a consensus forecast for the October 2026 Official Manufacturing PMI has not yet been published by major polling providers such as Reuters or Trading Economics. Forecasts for this release typically firm up in the final days of October, closer to the publication date.
The most recent confirmed reading available is from August 2026, when the official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, still below the 50 expansion line but up 0.6 points from July, according to a report on the August data. The non-manufacturing index stood at 49.0 in the same month, its weakest level since December 2022, per Reuters.

Measure
Prior (August 2026)
Consensus (October 2026)

Manufacturing PMI
49.8
Not yet published

Non-Manufacturing PMI
49.0
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Read as a sign that factory activity is stabilising or recovering, potentially supporting the yuan and commodity-linked currencies
Chinese factories reported more new orders and output than expected, suggesting demand is picking up

In line
Limited market reaction, seen as confirmation of the existing gradual recovery trend described by analysts covering the August data
The economy is behaving broadly as expected, neither better nor worse

Below consensus
Could revive concerns about weak domestic demand and prompt talk of further stimulus, a pattern noted after earlier soft prints
Factories and services firms are struggling more than expected, which can weigh on global trade partners

Why does this release matter right now?
China’s factory sector has moved in and out of contraction for much of 2026. The Official Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in February 2026 before rebounding to 50.4 in March, its strongest reading in a year, helped by government spending and export demand linked to artificial intelligence hardware, according to Trading Economics data. By August 2026 the index had settled at 49.8, still in contraction but improving, while the non-manufacturing gauge languished at 49.0, its weakest since December 2022.
Policymakers in Beijing have leaned on fiscal spending and targeted support measures through 2026 as they try to lift domestic consumption and stabilise the property sector. Each PMI print feeds into that debate: a weak reading tends to increase pressure for more stimulus, while a stronger one can ease it. Analysts covering the August release noted that the test ahead is whether stronger factory demand spreads into jobs, consumption and private-sector confidence, according to a report on China’s recovery prospects.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and rates: China’s PMI does not set UK, US or European mortgage rates directly, but persistent weakness in Chinese demand can pull down global growth expectations, which sometimes feeds into lower bond yields and, indirectly, mortgage pricing in Western markets.
Savings: A weaker Chinese economy can add to disinflationary pressure globally by lowering commodity and shipping costs, which central banks weigh when setting the interest rates that determine savings account returns.
Jobs and wages: Companies in Europe, the UK and Asia that export machinery, luxury goods or raw materials to China are sensitive to these figures. A soft PMI print can eventually show up in hiring and order books at those firms.
Prices: China is a major producer of manufactured goods and consumer of raw materials, so shifts in its factory activity can affect the price of everything from electronics to industrial metals worldwide.
Investments, pensions and currencies: Chinese equities, the offshore yuan, and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar often react to this release. Pension funds with exposure to Asian or emerging-market equities, or to mining and energy companies, can see performance move on the day.
Related events

Previous release: China Official PMI, September 2026
The privately compiled Caixin Manufacturing PMI, published separately and weighted towards smaller, export-oriented firms
Full monthly schedule and background on the series: China Official PMI

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the October 2026 China Official PMI released?
It is scheduled for 9:30 am China Standard Time on October 31, 2026, which is 9:30 pm ET on October 30 and 1:30 am in London on October 31.
How do I read the PMI figure?
A reading above 50 signals expansion in that sector of the economy, while a reading below 50 signals contraction; the closer to 50, the closer the sector is to stabilising.
Does the China PMI affect interest rates outside China?
Not directly, but weak or strong Chinese activity can shift global growth and inflation expectations, which central banks in the US, UK and eurozone factor into their own rate decisions.
Where is the official release published?
Directly on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
When is the next China Official PMI released?
The NBS publishes this series on a fixed monthly schedule; the next release after October 2026 covers November 2026 data.
← Previous China Official PMI

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI November 2026
2026-11-01 20:45 - 21:45 (America/New_York)
Next China Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Monday, November 2, 2026 at 9:45 am CST (8:45 pm ET, 1:45 am London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
50.9 (July 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is scheduled for release on November 2, 2026, at 9:45 am China Standard Time (9:45 pm ET on November 1, and 1:45 am in London on November 2). The survey is compiled by S&P Global for Caixin Insight Group and, following a sponsorship change during 2026, the headline index is now also published under the name RatingDog Manufacturing PMI. This release covers manufacturing activity in October 2026, gathered from purchasing managers at more than 500 mostly small and mid-sized Chinese manufacturers. Full schedule and background: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
What is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI?
The Caixin (now also branded RatingDog) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey-based gauge of factory activity in China. Purchasing managers are asked whether output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchased items rose, fell or stayed the same compared with the previous month. Those answers are combined into a single index, weighted at 30% new orders, 25% output, 20% employment, 15% suppliers’ delivery times and 10% stocks of purchased items, with the delivery times component inverted so it moves in the same direction as the rest.
A reading above 50 signals expansion in the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50 signals contraction. Because the survey panel leans towards smaller, export-oriented and privately-owned firms, it is widely treated as a complement to China’s official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI, which surveys larger, often state-owned, companies. When the two diverge, traders often read the Caixin figure as a better proxy for the private, trade-exposed part of the economy.
Investors, currency traders and commodity desks in Asia, Europe and the United States watch the release closely because China remains the world’s largest manufacturer and a major buyer of raw materials. A weak print can pressure the Australian dollar, industrial metals prices and the shares of companies with large China exposure, while a strong print can lift risk appetite across Asian and European equity markets.
When is the November Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
The report is due on Monday, November 2, 2026, at 9:45 am China Standard Time, which is 9:45 pm ET the previous evening and 1:45 am in London. S&P Global publishes the exact release calendar in advance, and the November date has not yet been formally confirmed at the time of writing. In practice, the manufacturing PMI is published on the first business day of the month covering the prior month’s activity, so November 2, 2026 follows that usual pattern.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 release (covering October activity) has not yet been published by major polling services. Forecasts for PMI readings are typically only compiled in the days immediately before release. The most recently confirmed reading available at the time of writing is July 2026, when the index fell to a four-month low of 50.9, down from 51.7 in June, according to data compiled by Trading Economics. June’s reading of 51.7 was itself down from 51.8 in May.

Measure
Prior reading
Consensus

Headline PMI
50.9 (July 2026)
Not yet published

New Orders sub-index
Not separately confirmed
Not yet published

Readers should treat the July figure as background context rather than the immediate prior, since further monthly readings for August and September 2026 will have been published before the November release. Check the official S&P Global release calendar or Caixin Insight Group’s own site closer to the date for the confirmed prior and consensus.
What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Possible modest lift to risk appetite in Asian and commodity-linked markets
Chinese factories are growing faster than expected, which could support demand for raw materials and Asian exporters

In line with consensus
Limited market reaction expected
Manufacturing activity is behaving broadly as anticipated, so traders are unlikely to reposition heavily

Below consensus
Possible pressure on commodity currencies and China-exposed equities
Factories are struggling more than expected, which can weigh on demand for exports from trading partners and on metals prices

These are possibilities rather than predictions. Actual market moves depend on other data released the same week, the tone of Chinese policy signals, and broader global risk sentiment.
Why does this release matter right now?
China’s manufacturing sector has been showing signs of gradual slowing through the middle of 2026, with the Caixin gauge easing from 51.8 in May to 51.7 in June and then to a four-month low of 50.9 in July, according to Trading Economics. That slowdown matters because manufacturing and exports remain central to China’s growth model, and weaker factory activity can filter through to global supply chains, shipping volumes and commodity demand. Policymakers in Beijing have used stimulus measures at various points in 2026 to support activity, and each new PMI print is used by economists to judge whether that support is working.
Outside China, central banks and trade-exposed businesses in Europe, the UK and Asia watch the series as an early signal of demand from one of their largest trading partners. A sustained slowdown in Chinese manufacturing tends to show up later in weaker export orders for countries such as Germany, South Korea and Australia.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and rates: The Caixin PMI itself does not move UK or US mortgage rates directly, but weaker Chinese growth can feed into global bond markets and, indirectly, into borrowing costs, particularly if it changes expectations for global central bank policy.
Savings: A weak reading that pushes commodity prices down can help ease global inflation pressure over time, which may support the case for interest rate cuts and, eventually, lower savings returns.
Jobs and wages: Workers in export-heavy industries in Asia, Germany and Australia are more exposed to swings in Chinese manufacturing demand than most UK or US employees.
Prices: Slower Chinese factory activity can reduce demand for industrial metals and energy, which sometimes shows up as softer prices at the pump or for manufactured goods elsewhere.
Investments and pensions: Pension funds and index trackers with exposure to Asian equities, mining companies or commodity-linked shares can see short-term price swings around this release.
Currencies: The Australian dollar and other commodity-linked currencies often react to Chinese PMI surprises, and moves can spill over into the pound, euro and dollar through shifts in broader risk sentiment.

Related events

Previous release: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, September 2026
China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI, typically published a day or two before the Caixin figure each month
China Caixin Services PMI, usually released a few days after the manufacturing figure

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 Caixin Manufacturing PMI released?
It is scheduled for 9:45 am China Standard Time on November 2, 2026, which is 9:45 pm ET on November 1 and 1:45 am in London on November 2.
How do I read the Caixin Manufacturing PMI figure?
A reading above 50 means manufacturing activity is expanding compared with the previous month; a reading below 50 means it is contracting.
Does the Caixin PMI affect UK or US interest rates directly?
No, it is not a UK or US indicator, but it can influence global sentiment towards growth and inflation, which central banks take into account alongside their own domestic data.
Where is the official release published?
The figure is released by S&P Global on behalf of Caixin Insight Group, with the release calendar available on the S&P Global PMI release schedule.
When is the next Caixin Manufacturing PMI released after this one?
The next release typically follows on the first business day of December 2026, covering November 2026 activity, though the exact date is confirmed nearer the time.
← Previous China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

US ISM Manufacturing PMI November 2026
2026-11-02 10:00 - 11:00 (America/New_York)
Next US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
55.6% (July 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is scheduled to be released on Monday, November 2, 2026, at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The report covers factory activity data collected during October 2026. As with all ISM releases, the exact date has not yet been formally confirmed by the publisher: ISM publishes the Manufacturing PMI on the first business day of each month, and November 2, 2026, is that day for this cycle. Full schedule and background: US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
What is the ISM Manufacturing PMI?
The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is a monthly survey-based gauge of activity in the US factory sector. Purchasing and supply executives at several hundred companies across 18 manufacturing industries are asked whether conditions such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories have improved, worsened or stayed the same compared with the prior month.
Those responses are converted into a single diffusion index. A reading above the expansion threshold indicates the manufacturing sector is growing; a reading below it indicates contraction. ISM’s own commentary has referenced a threshold of roughly 47.5 for the overall economy to be judged as expanding, according to the Institute for Supply Management, a change from the more traditional 50-point breakeven level often used by economists and traders when reading the headline number.
Markets watch the PMI closely because it is one of the earliest hard-data style signals each month on the health of the goods-producing side of the economy, arriving well before official government factory output figures. Sub-indices such as New Orders, Prices Paid and Employment are used by traders to gauge demand, inflation pressure in the supply chain, and factory hiring trends, all of which feed into expectations for Federal Reserve policy, the direction of the US dollar, and sentiment in export-dependent economies such as the eurozone, the UK and parts of Asia.
When is the November ISM Manufacturing PMI released?
The report is due at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London) on Monday, November 2, 2026, published by the Institute for Supply Management. It will appear on the ISM’s official Report On Business pages. Because ISM confirms its exact release calendar only a limited number of months ahead, this date reflects the publisher’s standard pattern of releasing the Manufacturing PMI on the first business day of the month rather than a confirmed entry on ISM’s published calendar at the time of writing.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 release (covering October 2026 data) has not yet been published by data providers such as Reuters or Trading Economics, as these polls are typically compiled only in the days immediately before the release. The most recent confirmed ISM Manufacturing PMI reading available at the time of writing was for July 2026, when the index came in at 55.6%, comfortably ahead of the 54.0% forecast tracked by Investing.com’s economic calendar and up from 53.3% in June 2026, according to Investing.com and ISM’s own June 2026 report. Readings for August and September 2026 will have been published before this November release and should be checked against the official ISM report for the most current prior figure.

Measure
June 2026
July 2026 (latest verified)

Headline Manufacturing PMI
53.3%
55.6%

Forecast for the month (as tracked ahead of release)
n/a
54.0%

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Seen as a sign the factory sector is accelerating, which can lift the US dollar and push back expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts if paired with a strong Prices Paid sub-index
Factories are busier than expected, which can support jobs and wages in manufacturing regions but may also keep some prices firmer for longer

In line
Typically a limited market reaction, since traders have already priced in the expected outcome
The factory sector is behaving broadly as expected, so little changes for borrowing costs or investment plans

Below consensus
Often read as a sign of a cooling factory sector, which can weigh on the dollar and firm up bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts
Weaker orders and output can be an early warning of slower hiring or investment in industrial regions

These are possible market reactions described by analysts, not predictions of what will happen on the day.
Why does this release matter right now?
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has spent stretches of 2025 and 2026 hovering close to the line between contraction and expansion, before climbing to 55.6% in July 2026 from 53.3% in June, according to Investing.com’s economic calendar and ISM’s own report. The New Orders Index eased slightly to 56.0% in June from 56.8% in May, based on ISM’s June 2026 Manufacturing PMI report, a sign that demand growth, while still solid, has not been accelerating in a straight line.
Federal Reserve officials watch the survey’s Prices Paid and Employment components alongside the headline figure when weighing how much slack remains in the economy and how sticky input-cost pressures are. A run of strong headline prints combined with rising Prices Paid readings tends to make policymakers more cautious about cutting interest rates quickly, while a run of weak prints does the opposite. Outside the US, the report is one of the inputs traders in London, Frankfurt and Tokyo use to judge the strength of US import demand, which matters for exporters in the eurozone, the UK and Asia that sell machinery, components and raw materials into US supply chains.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and loan rates: a stronger than expected PMI can nudge US Treasury yields higher, which tends to feed through to mortgage and other borrowing rates in the US, and can have a smaller knock-on effect on rate expectations in the UK and eurozone through global bond markets.
Savings rates: if the report shifts expectations for how soon or how far the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, that can change what banks offer on savings accounts and fixed-term deposits over the following months.
Jobs and wages: the survey’s Employment Index offers an early signal on factory hiring intentions, relevant for workers and job-seekers in manufacturing-heavy US states and, indirectly, in exporting economies that supply US factories.
Prices you pay: the Prices Paid Index tracks cost pressures further up the supply chain. Persistent increases here can eventually show up in the price of manufactured goods on shelves.
Investments, pensions and currencies: the report can move US equity futures, the US dollar, and by extension the value of the pound and the euro against the dollar, which affects the return on overseas holdings inside pensions and investment portfolios.

Related events

Previous release: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, October 2026
Full schedule and background: US ISM Manufacturing PMI hub page
Related US data to watch around the same week: the ISM Services PMI and the US nonfarm payrolls report, both of which round out the picture of the broader US economy.

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November ISM Manufacturing PMI released?
It is scheduled for 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London, on Monday, November 2, 2026.
How should I read the ISM Manufacturing PMI number?
Look at the headline index alongside the New Orders, Prices Paid and Employment sub-indices, since these show whether growth (or contraction) is being driven by demand, cost pressures or hiring.
Does the ISM Manufacturing PMI affect Federal Reserve interest rate decisions?
Yes, it is one of many indicators Federal Reserve officials monitor when assessing economic momentum and inflation pressure, though it is not the sole factor behind any rate decision.
Where can I find the official ISM Manufacturing PMI release?
The report is published on the Institute for Supply Management’s Report On Business section of its official website, ismworld.org.
When is the next ISM Manufacturing PMI released after this one?
The following report, covering November 2026 data, is expected on the first business day of December 2026, in line with ISM’s standard publication schedule.
← Previous US ISM Manufacturing PMI

RBA Rate Decision November 2026
2026-11-03 00:00 - 23:59 UTC
Next RBA Rate Decision: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 2:30 pm AEST (10:30 pm ET, 3:30 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous RBA Rate DecisionNext RBA Rate Decision →
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its November 2026 interest rate decision on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, at 2:30 pm AEST. The Monetary Policy Board meets over two days (2-3 November), with the outcome published alongside the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) at 2:30 pm AEST. November is one of four SMP meetings, making it one of the most significant in the annual calendar, as the Board publishes updated forecasts for inflation, GDP growth, and the labour market. A press conference with the Governor follows at 3:30 pm AEST.
RBA Rate Decision: November 3, 2026
The November meeting is the seventh Monetary Policy Board decision of 2026 and carries extra weight as a quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy meeting. The SMP provides the most comprehensive communication from the RBA, setting out the Board’s updated central projections for underlying inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment over a multi-year horizon. These forecasts, presented in fan chart form, signal the Board’s expectations for the future path of the cash rate and are closely watched by economists, financial markets, and mortgage holders across Australia.
As of May 2026, the cash rate stands at 4.35%, following three consecutive hikes in the first half of the year. The Board has been responding to a re-acceleration of inflation driven by services price pressures, a tight labour market, and higher energy and food costs linked to the Middle East conflict. By November, the Board will have access to the September quarter CPI release (typically published in late October), providing the most timely and comprehensive read on underlying inflation before the decision.
What to Expect
The November meeting is the most data-rich decision point in the second half of 2026. The September quarter CPI, due in late October, will confirm whether underlying inflation is tracking back toward the RBA’s 2-3% target band. This data will be central to the November decision. If trimmed mean CPI falls meaningfully from second-quarter levels, the Board may signal that the hiking cycle has peaked and that the next move could be a cut. If it remains elevated, a further hike remains possible.
Labour market conditions will also be reviewed. The September quarter data, covering employment growth, participation rates, and the Wage Price Index, will be available before November and will inform the Board’s assessment of domestic inflationary pressures. Australia’s housing market, which is particularly sensitive to rate changes given the prevalence of variable-rate mortgages, will be a further consideration: several months of higher rates are already weighing on household consumption, and the Board must balance the risk of overtightening against the risk of entrenching inflation.
The global context will also feature prominently in the November deliberations. The US Federal Reserve’s October decision (29 October) and any signal from the Bank of England and ECB in September and October will provide important context for global monetary conditions heading into November. The Chinese economy remains a key risk factor: any deterioration in Chinese demand would affect Australian commodity exports and could reduce the need for further tightening.
Cash Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Rate
Vote

May 2026
Hike +25bp
4.35%
8-1

March 2026
Hike +25bp
4.10%
Majority

February 2026
Hike +25bp
3.85%
Majority

November 2025
Hold
3.60%
Majority

September 2025
Hold
3.60%
Majority

August 2025
Cut 25bp
3.60%
Majority

May 2025
Cut 25bp
3.85%
Majority

February 2025
Cut 25bp
4.10%
Majority

Market Impact Scenarios

Hold at 4.35% with dovish SMP (most likely if inflation moderates) – If the September quarter CPI confirms a return toward the 2-3% band, the Board will likely hold rates and use the SMP to signal that the hiking cycle has ended. The Australian dollar would weaken modestly as markets price in future cuts. The ASX 200 would rally, particularly property, consumer discretionary, and financials. Short-dated government bond yields would fall on expectations of eventual easing in 2027.
Hike 25bp to 4.60% with hawkish SMP – If underlying inflation remains elevated in the September quarter, the Board could deliver a fourth consecutive hike. AUD would strengthen. The ASX 200 would fall, with mortgage-sensitive sectors particularly affected. The Governor would use the SMP press conference to explain why further tightening is necessary despite signs of economic slowdown, citing the priority of returning inflation to the target band.
Hold at 4.35% with neutral SMP – A middle case in which the Board holds rates but does not provide clear forward guidance in either direction. This would keep markets guessing about the December decision. AUD and ASX would be relatively unchanged, with the November SMP’s inflation fan chart and GDP projection providing the main market signal.

Statement on Monetary Policy and Press Conference
As a quarterly SMP meeting, the November announcement at 2:30 pm AEST is accompanied by the full Statement on Monetary Policy, which is published simultaneously on the RBA’s website. The SMP contains the Board’s baseline economic forecasts, analysis of recent domestic and international conditions, and a discussion of risks. The Governor will then hold a press conference at 3:30 pm AEST, presenting the key findings and taking questions from journalists.
The November SMP is particularly important as it provides the last full forecast update before year-end. Any significant revision to the Board’s trimmed mean inflation projection or GDP forecast will be taken as a signal for the December decision and beyond. If the SMP shows inflation returning to the 2-3% band within the forecast horizon, markets will price a pivot toward cuts. If it shows inflation remaining above target, a further hike or an extended pause is more likely.
Related Events

FOMC Rate Decision October 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s October decision, providing the most recent US monetary policy signal ahead of the RBA’s November announcement.
ECB Rate Decision October 2026 – The ECB’s October decision, part of the broader global central bank context heading into November.
Bank of England MPC Rate Decision November 2026 – The BoE’s November decision on 5 November 2026, also a major quarterly forecast meeting, directly coinciding with the RBA’s announcement.

Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Statement on Monetary Policy and why does it matter?
The quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) is the RBA’s most comprehensive communication tool. Published four times a year alongside the February, May, August, and November rate decisions, it contains the Board’s updated forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment, as well as in-depth analysis of domestic and global economic conditions. The SMP’s central projections and fan charts are used by financial markets, economists, and policymakers to anticipate the future path of the cash rate.
When will the November 2026 RBA decision be announced?
The decision and Statement on Monetary Policy will be published at 2:30 pm AEST (3:30 am GMT) on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. The Governor’s press conference follows at 3:30 pm AEST.
What happens if the RBA hikes rates again at the November meeting?
A further hike to 4.60% in November would represent the fourth consecutive increase in the 2026 hiking cycle, taking the cash rate above the previous 2023 peak of 4.35%. This would add further pressure to household budgets, particularly for variable-rate mortgage holders, and would likely dampen consumer spending and housing market activity. The RBA would use the SMP to explain the rationale, citing the need to bring underlying inflation back within the 2-3% target band on a sustained basis.
Featured image: Photo by Fabian Mardi on Unsplash.

Is the Stock Market Open on Culture Day 2026? TSE/JPX Hours
2026-11-03 00:00 - 23:59 (America/New_York)
Tokyo Stock Exchange (JPX) are closed on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 for Culture Day.

Next holiday
Labor Thanksgiving Day, November 23, 2026
Regular hours
9:00 am to 11:30 am and 12:30 pm to 3:30 pm JST

Full schedule and background: TSE/JPX Holidays.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous TSE/JPX Holidays
The Tokyo Stock Exchange (JPX) is closed on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 for Culture Day, a Japanese public holiday. No cash equity trading, derivatives trading or clearing will take place on the exchange that day. Any orders entered through a broker’s system for that session will simply queue and be released for execution when the market reopens on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, assuming that is not also a holiday in the reader’s home market. For the full run of dates, see the TSE/JPX Holidays calendar.
Because this is a full-day closure rather than an early close, there is no shortened trading session to plan around. Settlement of any trades executed on the prior trading day, Monday, November 2, 2026, will proceed on the normal cycle, but the holiday itself is simply skipped when counting settlement days, which can push cash and share delivery back by one business day for trades that straddle the closure.
Which markets are closed on Culture Day 2026?

Market
Status
Notes

Tokyo Stock Exchange (equities)
Closed
All cash equity and ETF trading suspended for Culture Day

JPX derivatives (futures and options)
Closed
Nikkei 225 futures, TOPIX futures and related options do not trade

Osaka Exchange
Closed
Commodity and derivatives trading also suspended

New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq
Open (regular hours)
US markets do not observe Japanese holidays

London Stock Exchange (LSE)
Open (regular hours)
No UK holiday falls on this date

Euronext
Open (regular hours)
Standard European trading session

Bond market (Japan)
Closed
Japanese government bond trading follows the exchange holiday schedule

Is the market open the day before and after?
The last trading session before the holiday is Monday, November 2, 2026, running the normal hours of 9:00 am to 11:30 am and 12:30 pm to 3:30 pm JST. Tokyo has no early close attached to Culture Day: the exchange is either fully open or fully closed, with no shortened session either side of the holiday. Trading resumes as normal on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, on the standard schedule, unless that date is separately declared a holiday, which it is not in 2026. Investors placing limit or market orders on November 3 through an online broker should expect those orders to sit unfilled until the next live session opens.
Why do markets close for Culture Day?
Culture Day, known in Japan as Bunka no Hi, has been a national public holiday since 1948. It was established to promote freedom, peace and cultural activity, and its date, November 3, was chosen because it originally marked the anniversary of the promulgation of Japan’s post-war constitution in 1946. The day is used across the country for cultural events, award ceremonies for achievements in the arts and sciences, and museum openings, and government offices, schools and financial markets close alongside the exchange.
Because JPX follows the Japanese national holiday calendar in full, any date designated a public holiday by the government automatically becomes a non-trading day for the exchange, without a separate decision by market operators. This is a different model from some Western exchanges, which sometimes trade on public holidays or apply their own separate holiday list.
What It Means for Your Money
For most retail investors outside Japan, a single TSE closure has a limited direct effect. If you hold a fund or exchange traded fund that tracks the Nikkei 225 or TOPIX, its underlying basket simply does not reprice on November 3, so the fund’s net asset value calculation for that day will reference the last available Tokyo closing prices rather than fresh trades. Anyone with an order resting on a Japanese broker platform, including buy or sell instructions tied to Japanese shares held directly, will see that order carried over to the next open session rather than cancelled.
Dividend payments and corporate actions scheduled for Culture Day are typically processed on the next business day, so shareholders should not expect a payment to be missed, only delayed by one day. Options and futures expiring around this date follow JPX’s published calendar adjustments, which push expiry to the nearest trading day where needed. For currency markets, the yen continues to trade in other time zones even while Tokyo cash equities are shut, since foreign exchange is a 24-hour market spread across global centres, so movements in USD/JPY or EUR/JPY on November 3 will still reflect real trading activity elsewhere. Cryptocurrency markets are unaffected entirely, as they trade continuously regardless of any exchange holiday. Bank transfers within Japan may also be affected, since many Japanese banks treat national holidays as non-business days for interbank settlement.
Remaining TSE/JPX holidays in 2026

Labor Thanksgiving Day, Monday, November 23, 2026, closed
New Year’s Eve (Market Holiday), Thursday, December 31, 2026, closed

The next scheduled closure after Culture Day is Labor Thanksgiving Day on November 23, 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the stock market open on Culture Day 2026?
No, the Tokyo Stock Exchange and Osaka Exchange are both fully closed on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 for Culture Day.
Is the Japanese bond market open on Culture Day?
No, Japanese government bond trading follows the same national holiday schedule as the equity market, so bond trading is also closed on November 3, 2026.
What time does the Tokyo Stock Exchange close on the day before Culture Day?
Monday, November 2, 2026 is a normal trading day, with the exchange running its usual sessions from 9:00 am to 11:30 am and 12:30 pm to 3:30 pm JST, followed by the full closure the next day.
When is the next TSE/JPX market holiday after Culture Day?
The next closure is Labor Thanksgiving Day on Monday, November 23, 2026.
Are Japanese banks open on Culture Day?
No, Culture Day is a national public holiday in Japan, so banks and most government offices are also closed alongside the stock exchange.
← Previous TSE/JPX Holidays

US JOLTS Job Openings November 2026
2026-11-03 10:00 - 11:00 (America/New_York)
Next US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). Covers September 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Not independently verified at time of writing, see BLS release
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US JOLTS Job Openings.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US JOLTS Job Openings
The US JOLTS Job Openings report for September 2026 is scheduled for release on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time). The report is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as part of its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. This particular release covers September 2026 data. Full schedule and background: US JOLTS Job Openings.
What is JOLTS Job Openings?
JOLTS stands for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. It is a monthly survey run by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that measures the number of unfilled job openings, hires, and separations (people leaving jobs, whether by quitting, being laid off, or other reasons) across the US economy. The headline figure that most investors watch is the total number of job openings, usually reported in millions.
The BLS collects this data by surveying tens of thousands of business establishments each month, asking them how many positions they currently have open and are actively trying to fill. Unlike the monthly non-farm payrolls report, which shows how many people were actually hired, JOLTS shows the demand side of the labour market: how many jobs employers say they want to fill. Economists and central bankers use the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers as a gauge of how tight or loose the labour market is.
Markets watch JOLTS closely because the Federal Reserve has repeatedly cited labour market slack, or the lack of it, as a factor in setting interest rates. A high number of openings relative to available workers suggests employers are competing hard for staff, which can push wages up and add to inflation pressure. A falling number of openings, by contrast, can be an early signal that hiring demand is cooling before it shows up in the unemployment rate itself.
When is the September JOLTS report released?
The September 2026 JOLTS Job Openings report is released on November 3, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is published on the BLS website as part of the JOLTS series, alongside detailed tables covering hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and total separations broken down by industry and region. JOLTS is typically released with roughly a two-month lag relative to the reference month, which is why the September data is not published until early November.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the September 2026 JOLTS Job Openings figure has not yet been published by major polling services such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Forecasts for this release typically firm up in the days immediately before publication, once analysts have incorporated the most recent payrolls, weekly jobless claims, and other labour market indicators into their models. Readers should check back closer to the release date, or consult a live-updated consensus tracker, for the latest median estimate.
Similarly, the prior reading, the August 2026 JOLTS figure, was not independently verifiable through research at the time this preview was written. The most reliable way to check the most recently published number is to consult the official BLS JOLTS release directly, since prior readings are also subject to revision in subsequent reports.

Measure
Prior (August 2026)
Consensus (September 2026)

Total job openings
Not yet verified, see official BLS release
Not yet published

Quits rate
Not yet verified, see official BLS release
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Traders may see this as a sign of continued labour demand, potentially reducing bets on near-term rate cuts, according to commentary from economists who track Fed policy expectations
More jobs are being advertised than expected, suggesting employers still want to hire, which can support wages but may also keep the Fed cautious about cutting rates too quickly

In line with consensus
A muted reaction is likely, since the data would simply confirm the existing view of the labour market’s trajectory
The jobs market is behaving broadly as economists expected, so borrowing costs, savings rates and share prices are unlikely to shift much on this release alone

Below consensus
Markets may price in a higher probability of Fed rate cuts, as weaker demand for labour is often read as an early sign of a cooling economy
Fewer job openings than expected can signal that companies are becoming more cautious about hiring, which historically has preceded a slower pace of wage growth and, sometimes, higher unemployment

Why does this release matter right now?
The Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed to the balance between labour supply and demand as a key input into its interest rate decisions. JOLTS data, particularly the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers, has been used by Fed officials in public remarks to argue whether the labour market remains tight or has cooled to a more sustainable pace. Because JOLTS is released with a lag, it is often viewed alongside more timely indicators such as the monthly non-farm payrolls report and weekly initial jobless claims to build a fuller picture of labour market health.
Global investors also watch US labour data closely because shifts in Fed policy expectations tend to ripple through to other major central banks, including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, both of which weigh US monetary conditions when setting their own policy paths. A softer or stronger than expected US jobs market can move the dollar, which in turn affects the pound and the euro, and can influence borrowing costs well beyond US shores.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and rates: If the JOLTS report suggests the labour market is cooling faster than expected, it can raise expectations of Fed rate cuts, which sometimes filters through to lower mortgage rates in the US and can influence global bond yields, including UK and eurozone mortgage pricing.
Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts and fixed deposits often track central bank policy. A weaker jobs market that raises the odds of rate cuts could eventually mean lower returns on cash savings, while a stronger than expected reading could keep savings rates higher for longer.
Jobs and wages: A falling number of job openings can be an early warning that hiring is slowing, which over time can mean fewer job opportunities and softer wage growth, both in the US and, indirectly, in economies closely tied to US demand.
Prices: A very tight labour market, with many more openings than available workers, has historically been linked to faster wage growth, which can add to inflation pressure and keep prices of goods and services rising more quickly.
Investments, pensions and currencies: Shifts in Fed rate cut expectations driven by labour market data can move share prices, bond yields, and the value of the dollar against the pound and euro, which affects the value of pensions and other investments held in different currencies.

Related events

Previous JOLTS release: US JOLTS Job Openings, August 2026 data
US non-farm payrolls report, released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Weekly US initial jobless claims, released every Thursday by the Department of Labor

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the September 2026 JOLTS report released?
The report is released at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm London time, on November 3, 2026.
How should I read the JOLTS job openings number?
A higher number of job openings generally signals stronger labour demand, while a falling number can suggest employers are becoming more cautious about hiring.
Does JOLTS affect interest rate decisions?
Yes, the Federal Reserve monitors JOLTS data, particularly the balance between job openings and available workers, as one input among many when setting interest rate policy.
Where can I find the official JOLTS release?
The official report is published on the Bureau of Labor Statistics website as part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey series.
When is the next JOLTS report after this one?
The BLS typically releases JOLTS data roughly a month after this report, covering the following reference month, according to its published release schedule.
← Previous US JOLTS Job Openings

Riksbank Rate Decision November 2026
2026-11-04 03:30 - 04:30 (America/New_York)
Next Riksbank Rate Decision: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 9:30 am CET (3:30 am ET, 8:30 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Held at 1.75% (August 26, 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Riksbank Rate Decision.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Riksbank Rate Decision
Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, announces its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at 9:30 am CET (3:30 am ET, 8:30 am London time). The Executive Board’s decision is published alongside a Monetary Policy Update, and the new policy rate takes effect from November 11, 2026. The current policy rate is 1.75%, unchanged since a surprise 25 basis point cut in September 2025. Full schedule and background: Riksbank Rate Decision hub.
What is the Riksbank and what does it decide?
The Riksbank is Sweden’s central bank and one of the oldest central banks in the world. Its main task is to keep inflation close to a target of 2%, measured by the CPIF (consumer price index with a fixed interest rate), while also paying attention to the real economy and employment. Its main policy tool is the policy rate, sometimes called the repo rate, which is the interest rate at which commercial banks can borrow from or deposit money with the Riksbank for seven days.
Rate decisions are taken by the Executive Board, which normally has six members. Decisions are made by majority vote, and if the vote is tied the Governor has the casting vote. The Board holds eight scheduled monetary policy meetings a year, roughly every six weeks, and each decision is published together with either a full Monetary Policy Report or a shorter Monetary Policy Update.
Because the Swedish krona is a small, open-currency economy tightly linked to the eurozone and to global trade, Riksbank decisions matter beyond Sweden’s borders. Moves in the krona affect Nordic exporters, and the Riksbank’s inflation and growth outlook is watched by other European central banks as an early read on how tariffs, energy prices and wage settlements are feeding through to prices.
When is the November Riksbank decision announced?
The decision is due on November 4, 2026 at 9:30 am CET (3:30 am ET, 8:30 am London). It will be released together with a Monetary Policy Update, a shorter document than the full quarterly Monetary Policy Report, containing the Board’s updated rate path and economic forecasts. A press conference normally follows the same morning, broadcast live on riksbank.se and YouTube, where the Governor and Deputy Governors take questions from journalists. Minutes from the meeting are usually published around two weeks later. The rate decided on November 4 takes effect from November 11, 2026.
What to expect
The Riksbank has held its policy rate at 1.75% since cutting it by 25 basis points in September 2025. Through 2026 the Board has repeatedly signalled that the easing cycle is likely complete, while leaving open the possibility of a hike if summer inflation pressures prove persistent rather than temporary. Deputy Governor Per Jansson said in August 2026 that the risk of somewhat higher inflation had increased, but that the Riksbank had room to wait before adjusting policy. No consensus forecast for the November 2026 decision has yet been published; markets and economists typically firm up expectations closer to the meeting date once the October inflation data is released.

Meeting
Decision
Rate after meeting

September 2025
Cut 25bp
1.75%

November 2025
Hold
1.75%

December 2025
Hold
1.75%

January 2026
Hold
1.75%

March 2026
Hold
1.75%

May 2026
Hold
1.75%

June 2026
Hold
1.75%

August 2026
Hold
1.75%

Market impact scenarios

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Hold at 1.75%
Broadly neutral for the krona, seen as continuation of a “wait and see” stance
Borrowing costs stay the same for now. This has been the most common outcome at every meeting since September 2025.

Hike
Likely to push the krona higher against the euro and dollar, as it would confirm the Riksbank sees inflation risks as more than temporary
Mortgage and loan rates in Sweden would edge up. A stronger krona makes imports cheaper but can squeeze exporters.

Dovish guidance shift
Markets would likely price in a longer hold or a future cut, weakening the krona
No immediate change to rates, but banks and analysts would revise their outlook for 2027, which can filter into fixed-rate mortgage pricing.

What will the statement and press conference signal?
Analysts will focus on three things. First, whether the Riksbank still frames the summer’s stronger inflation and growth data as temporary or as evidence of a more lasting shift, language that has shifted gradually through 2026. Second, whether the updated rate path in the Monetary Policy Update continues to flag a possible hike, or moves back towards a flat profile. Third, any dissent among the six Executive Board members, since a split vote would be read as a signal that the next move is more finely balanced than the headline decision suggests. Governor and Deputy Governors’ comments at the press conference on household spending, wage negotiations and the krona’s exchange rate will also be scrutinised for hints about the following meeting.
What It Means for Your Money
For people with mortgages in Sweden, a hold means variable mortgage rates stay where they are, while a hike would raise monthly payments on new and variable-rate loans and could nudge banks to lift the rates offered on new fixed-rate deals. Savers with Swedish bank accounts would see slightly better returns on deposits if the rate rises, and slightly worse if the Riksbank signals it is done raising rates for good.
A stronger or weaker krona affects Swedish holidaymakers and shoppers buying imported goods, and it also matters for exporters selling into the eurozone, the UK and the rest of Europe, since a weaker krona makes Swedish goods cheaper abroad but raises the cost of imported inputs. Investors holding Swedish equities, Nordic funds or krona-denominated bonds through pensions or ISAs should expect any surprise in the rate decision to move Swedish stock indices and the krona quickly, though a widely expected outcome usually has a muted market reaction. Elsewhere in Europe, the decision is watched as a signal of how quickly a small open economy can move from cutting rates to raising them again, which can influence how the European Central Bank and Bank of England frame their own inflation risks.
Related events

Previous decision: Riksbank Rate Decision September 2026
Full calendar of Riksbank meetings: Riksbank Rate Decision hub
Sweden’s inflation and labour market data released ahead of the meeting typically shape the final vote, and are covered separately on the calendar.

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Riksbank decision announced?
The decision is published at 9:30 am CET on November 4, 2026, which is 3:30 am ET and 8:30 am London time.
Will the Riksbank cut rates in November 2026?
A consensus forecast has not yet been published. The Riksbank has held its rate at 1.75% since September 2025 and has more recently discussed the possibility of a hike rather than a cut, according to its own public statements.
What is the current Riksbank policy rate?
The policy rate has stood at 1.75% since the Riksbank’s rate cut in September 2025, most recently confirmed unchanged at its August 2026 meeting.
When is the next Riksbank meeting after November?
The Riksbank normally holds eight monetary policy meetings a year, roughly every six weeks; check the Riksbank Rate Decision hub for the confirmed next date.
Where can I watch the press conference?
The Riksbank broadcasts its press conference live on riksbank.se and on YouTube shortly after the rate decision is published.
← Previous Riksbank Rate Decision

Eurozone Flash CPI November 2026
2026-11-04 05:00 - 06:00 (America/New_York)
Next Eurozone Flash CPI: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 11:00 am CET (5:00 am ET, 10:00 am London). Covers October 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
2.9% (July 2026 flash, latest Eurostat figure confirmed)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Eurozone Flash CPI.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Eurozone Flash CPI
The Eurozone Flash CPI for November 2026 is scheduled for November 4, 2026, at 5:00 am ET (11:00 am CET, 10:00 am London time). It is published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, and covers price data for October 2026. Full background and the release schedule for this series can be found on the Eurozone Flash CPI hub page.
What is the Eurozone Flash CPI?
The Flash CPI, formally the flash estimate of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is Eurostat’s earliest read on how much prices rose across the 20 countries that use the euro over the past year. It is based on partial national data submitted by member states before their own final inflation figures are finished, which is why it is called a “flash” rather than final estimate.
The index tracks a basket of goods and services bought by typical households: food, energy, housing costs, transport, healthcare and leisure. Eurostat breaks the headline figure down into components, chiefly energy, food and tobacco, non-energy industrial goods, and services, which lets analysts see whether price pressure is broad-based or concentrated in one area such as fuel or restaurant prices.
Markets watch this release closely because it is the main input the European Central Bank (ECB) uses to judge whether interest rates need to rise, fall or stay unchanged. A HICP reading that runs persistently above the ECB’s 2.0% target tends to keep borrowing costs higher for longer, while a reading close to or below target opens the door to rate cuts.
When is the October Eurozone Flash CPI released?
Eurostat will publish the flash estimate for October 2026 on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at 11:00 am Central European Time (5:00 am ET, 10:00 am London). The figures appear on the Eurostat euro indicators release calendar and on the agency’s euro indicators news page. Eurostat typically issues the flash estimate on the last day of the reference month or during the first few business days of the following month, so a November 4 release for October data sits within its usual pattern.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time this preview was prepared, a consensus forecast for the October 2026 flash reading had not yet been published by major polling services such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Economist surveys for this release are typically compiled in the days immediately before publication, so a forecast range is likely to appear closer to November 4, 2026.
The most recently confirmed Eurostat figure available was the July 2026 flash estimate, which put euro area annual inflation at 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June, according to Eurostat’s euro indicators release. That reading was later confirmed at 2.9% in the final data. Eurostat issues a new flash figure every month, so further prints for August and September 2026 will have followed before this October release.

Measure
Prior (June 2026)
Latest confirmed (July 2026)

Headline HICP (annual)
2.8%
2.9%

Energy
8.5%
10.0%

Services
3.2%
3.3%

Food, alcohol and tobacco
1.5%
1.2%

Non-energy industrial goods
0.7%
0.9%

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Euro could firm and eurozone bond yields could rise, as traders push back expectations of ECB rate cuts
Prices are rising faster than expected, which could delay any relief on borrowing costs

In line with consensus
Limited immediate market reaction, with focus shifting to the following month’s ECB policy meeting
Inflation is behaving broadly as expected, so the ECB’s existing plan is unlikely to change

Below consensus
Euro could soften and shorter-dated eurozone bond yields could fall, as markets price in a greater chance of rate cuts
Price pressure is easing faster than expected, which could bring cheaper borrowing sooner

These are possible reactions, not predictions. Analysts at banks such as ING and Commerzbank have repeatedly stressed that the ECB looks at a broad range of data, including wage growth and services inflation, before adjusting rates, rather than reacting to a single monthly print.
Why does this release matter right now?
Euro area inflation moved higher through the spring and summer of 2026, rising from 1.7% in January to a peak of 3.2% in May before easing to 2.8% in June and ticking back up to 2.9% in July, according to Eurostat’s monthly releases. Energy prices have been the main swing factor, with the annual energy inflation rate accelerating to 10.0% in July as tensions between the United States and Iran disrupted oil supplies, Eurostat and Trading Economics both reported.
Services inflation, which the ECB watches closely because it reflects domestic wage and demand pressures rather than volatile global energy prices, has stayed above 3% for most of 2026. That persistence is one reason the ECB has kept policy cautious even as headline inflation drifted close to its 2.0% target earlier in the year.
The October reading will show whether the summer uptick in energy costs is fading or feeding through to a broader rise in prices. It arrives shortly before the ECB’s final Governing Council meeting of the year, making it one of the last full inflation readings policymakers will see before that decision.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and loans: If eurozone inflation stays above the ECB’s 2.0% target, the ECB is less likely to cut its deposit rate, which keeps variable mortgage and business loan rates across the euro area higher for longer. A weaker reading could revive hopes of cheaper borrowing in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and other member states.
Savings: Higher-than-expected inflation erodes the real value of cash sitting in low-interest savings accounts, while a sustained move towards target could eventually bring lower savings rates as the ECB eases policy.
Jobs and wages: Persistent inflation, especially in services, often reflects continued wage growth. Workers may see pay rises track prices more closely, but employers facing higher costs may become more cautious about hiring.
Prices in daily life: Energy and food components of this release feed directly into household bills, from petrol and heating costs to supermarket baskets, across the eurozone.
Investments, pensions and the pound, dollar and euro: A surprise in either direction can move the euro against the dollar and the pound, affecting the value of European holdings, pension funds with eurozone exposure, and imported goods costs for UK and US consumers. Asian exporters selling into the eurozone also watch the euro’s strength, since a weaker euro makes European goods relatively cheaper abroad but can squeeze margins for non-European sellers.

Related events

Previous print: Eurozone Flash CPI, October 2026, which covered September 2026 data.
The full run of upcoming releases is listed on the Eurozone Flash CPI hub page.
The next ECB Governing Council interest rate decision, which weighs this and other inflation data directly.

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Eurozone Flash CPI released?
The November 4, 2026 release is due at 11:00 am Central European Time, which is 5:00 am ET and 10:00 am London time.
How should I read the flash CPI figure?
Focus on the annual rate (the headline percentage), and check the energy and services components, since these show whether price pressure is broad-based or driven by one factor such as fuel costs.
How does this release affect ECB interest rate decisions?
The ECB targets 2.0% annual inflation over the medium term. Readings that run persistently above target make rate cuts less likely, while readings near or below target make cuts more likely, though the ECB also weighs wage growth and services inflation.
Where can I find the official release?
Eurostat publishes the flash estimate on its euro indicators release calendar and euro indicators news pages.
When is the next Eurozone Flash CPI released?
Eurostat issues a flash estimate every month. The release following the October 2026 print, covering November 2026 data, is expected in early December 2026, in line with the usual monthly schedule.
← Previous Eurozone Flash CPI

US ADP Employment Report November 2026
2026-11-04 08:15 - 09:15 (America/New_York)
Next US ADP Employment Report: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 8:15 am ET (1:15 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
44,000 jobs added (July 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US ADP Employment Report.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US ADP Employment Report
The US ADP Employment Report for November 2026 is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 8:15 am ET (1:15 pm London time). It is published by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, and it covers changes in private-sector payrolls for the prior reporting month. Full background and the release schedule for this series are on the US ADP Employment Report hub page.
What is the ADP Employment Report?
The ADP National Employment Report measures the monthly change in private-sector jobs in the United States. Unlike the government’s official jobs figures, it is built from anonymised payroll data covering more than 26 million employees processed by ADP, one of the largest payroll providers in the country. Because it draws on real payroll records rather than a survey, it gives an early, high-frequency read on hiring trends before the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its own non-farm payrolls figure, usually two days later.
The report breaks employment changes down by company size, industry sector and region, and includes a separate pay measure tracking annual wage growth for people who stay in their jobs versus those who switch employers. Markets watch it closely because hiring and pay trends feed directly into the Federal Reserve’s view of the labour market, which in turn shapes decisions on interest rates.
It is worth remembering that ADP’s payroll data and the government’s non-farm payrolls figure can diverge in any given month, sometimes by a wide margin, because they use different methodologies and sample different parts of the workforce.
When is the November ADP Employment Report released?
ADP is expected to publish the report on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 8:15 am ET (1:15 pm London time), on its media centre and at adpemploymentreport.com. This date has not yet been formally confirmed by ADP at the time of writing. ADP typically releases its report on the Wednesday of the week containing the first Friday of the month, two days ahead of the official US employment report, so the date above follows that established pattern.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 release (covering October payroll data) has not yet been published. Economist surveys for ADP releases are typically compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg in the days immediately before the report, so a consensus figure will usually appear closer to release date.
The most recent confirmed prints show a slowing pace of private hiring through the middle of 2026. In June 2026, private employers added 98,000 jobs with annual pay growth of 4.4%, according to ADP’s official release. In July 2026, hiring slowed sharply to 44,000 jobs, described by Trading Economics as “the least in six months”, against forecasts of around 70,000.

Measure
Prior (July 2026)
Consensus

Private payrolls change
44,000
Not yet published

Annual pay growth (job stayers)
4.4%
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Could be read as evidence the labour market is holding up, potentially reducing expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts
More jobs were added than expected, suggesting employers are still hiring despite a slowing trend

In line with consensus
Likely to have limited market impact on its own
Hiring matched expectations, so the picture of a gradually cooling labour market continues unchanged

Below consensus
Could raise expectations of Fed rate cuts and pressure the dollar, according to strategists who track the FedWatch tool
Fewer jobs than expected were added, a signal that hiring is weakening further

These are possibilities discussed by analysts, not predictions. Investing.com notes that a higher than expected ADP reading is “taken as positive/bullish for the USD”, while a weaker one tends to be read the opposite way, though the report’s month-to-month volatility means any single print should be treated with caution.
Why does this release matter right now?
Private hiring in the US has slowed noticeably through 2026, with ADP reporting a drop from 98,000 jobs added in June to just 44,000 in July, according to Trading Economics. ADP’s chief economist, Dr Nela Richardson, has pointed to hiring described as modest relative to earlier in the year, alongside pay growth that has stayed largely flat, language consistent with the broader cooling trend seen through 2026. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh who took office in May 2026, has been weighing this softer jobs picture against still-elevated inflation, and labour market data of this kind feeds directly into that debate. A further slowdown, or a surprise rebound, in the October 2026 data due in this release would add to that picture ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and borrowing costs: a weak jobs report tends to raise expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which can pull down mortgage rates and other borrowing costs over time, while a strong report can do the opposite.
Savings: if the labour market data pushes the Fed towards cutting rates, savings account and cash ISA rates in the US and, indirectly, in other markets that track Fed policy could drift lower in the following months.
Jobs and wages: the pay growth figures in this report give an early signal of whether wage rises are keeping up with the cost of living, relevant to anyone negotiating a pay rise or planning household budgets.
Investments and pensions: US labour market surprises can move stock markets and bond yields quickly, which affects the value of pension funds and investment portfolios holding US assets, including those held by UK and European savers.
Currencies: a weaker than expected report can weigh on the US dollar, with knock-on effects for the value of the pound and the euro against the dollar, influencing the cost of imports and overseas holidays.
Related events

Previous release: US ADP Employment Report, October 2026
The US non-farm payrolls report, usually published two days after the ADP release each month
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, which weigh heavily on labour market data such as this

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the ADP Employment Report released?
It is scheduled for 8:15 am ET, which is 1:15 pm London time, on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
How should I read the ADP jobs number?
Look at the headline change in private payrolls against the consensus forecast, and check the pay growth figures for a sense of wage pressure, but treat any single month with caution given the series’ volatility.
Does the ADP report move interest rate expectations?
Yes, because it is one of the first hard data points each month on US hiring, and it feeds into how traders price the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate moves.
Where can I find the official release?
ADP publishes the report and interactive charts at adpemploymentreport.com and through its media centre.
When is the next ADP Employment Report?
ADP typically releases its report monthly, usually on the Wednesday two days before the official US non-farm payrolls report.
← Previous US ADP Employment Report

US International Trade Balance November 2026
2026-11-04 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US International Trade Balance: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers October 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US International Trade BalanceNext US International Trade Balance →
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the U.S. Census Bureau will jointly release the US International Trade in Goods and Services report for September 2026 on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report covers the monthly deficit or surplus in US trade in goods and services, providing markets with a comprehensive view of US export competitiveness and import demand during September. Consensus forecasts are not yet available at the time of writing and will be published closer to the release date.
What Is the US International Trade Balance Report?
The US International Trade in Goods and Services (FT-900) is a joint monthly publication from the BEA and the Census Bureau. It measures US exports and imports across two broad categories: goods (physical merchandise) and services (financial services, travel, intellectual property, and similar cross-border transactions). The headline figure is the goods and services deficit or surplus, expressed in billions of US dollars.
The United States runs a persistent goods deficit, partly offset by a structural services surplus built on the strength of US financial, technology, and travel exports. The net figure feeds directly into the national accounts: a wider deficit subtracts from GDP, while a narrower deficit adds to it. Trade data also influences Federal Reserve assessments of the strength of domestic demand relative to global conditions, and carries significant implications for currency markets and commodity pricing.
The report is released approximately five to six weeks after the end of the reference month and is subject to revision in subsequent releases as additional customs and financial data becomes available.
Trade Balance Report: November 4, 2026
The November 4 release covers September 2026 trade flows. This release falls three days after the US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) report for November 2026 on October 30, making the first week of November a particularly data-heavy period for markets assessing US economic health in Q3 2026.
Consensus estimates for September 2026 trade are not yet available. The September trade balance will be influenced by the trajectory of US import demand through the summer months, energy trade flows (oil and gas imports and exports), the pace of US export growth in goods and services, and any residual effects of tariff-related trade pattern shifts from earlier in the year. The October 6 release covering August data will be the closest precursor reading available before this November report.
The most recently published data, covering April 2026, showed a deficit of $60.3 billion in goods and services, according to the BEA and Census Bureau. The trend in early 2026 has shown stabilisation around the $55-60 billion range, following the sharp widening to $70.3 billion in December 2025 that was attributed to pre-tariff import front-loading.
Why This Report Matters
The November 4 trade balance release is particularly significant because it provides September 2026 data, which will be incorporated into the third-quarter 2026 GDP advance estimate (typically published in late October). By November 4, the GDP figure may already be published, but trade data can trigger revisions to the initial estimate.
For currency markets, a wider-than-expected deficit implies greater demand for foreign currency to finance imports, which is modestly negative for the US dollar over time. A narrower deficit, driven by export strength, would be constructive for the dollar and for internationally exposed US companies in sectors such as technology, aerospace, and agricultural exports. Energy trade flows are an important sub-component: shifts in US crude oil and LNG exports can significantly move the goods balance independently of underlying manufacturing trade.
The Bank of England MPC rate decision is scheduled for November 5, one day after this release. The November 4 trade data, combined with the US employment data from October 30, will help set the tone for global risk sentiment heading into the BoE announcement and the broader November policy calendar.
What to Watch For

Above consensus (wider deficit) — Signals robust US import demand, potentially positive for domestic growth but negative for GDP arithmetic. If driven by consumer goods imports, it suggests strong household spending; if driven by capital goods, it implies business investment. The US dollar could soften modestly on a wider reading.
In line with consensus — A result matching expectations would have limited market impact. Focus would shift to the composition of trade, particularly the services surplus and the energy goods component, and any notable revisions to prior months’ data.
Below consensus (narrower deficit) — Suggests either a slowdown in import demand or a pickup in US export activity. A narrower deficit driven by export growth is constructive for GDP and supportive of the US dollar, while one driven by weak imports might signal a slowdown in domestic demand.

Historical Context

Release Date
Reference Month
Deficit (Goods & Services)
Note

June 9, 2026
April 2026
-$60.3B
Wider than -$57.9B est.

May 5, 2026
March 2026
-$60.3B
In line with estimate

April 2, 2026
February 2026
-$57.3B
Narrower than -$59.2B est.

March 2026
January 2026
-$54.5B
—

February 2026
December 2025
-$70.3B
Pre-tariff import surge

January 2026
November 2025
-$53.0B
—

Market Positioning
The trade balance has been a source of significant policy attention and market volatility throughout 2025-2026. The spike to $70.3 billion in December 2025 reflected a one-time surge in goods imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases, which subsequently unwound in early 2026. The stabilisation of the deficit in the $55-60 billion range through the spring of 2026 suggests that the tariff-related distortions have largely been absorbed into the baseline, though the underlying level of the deficit remains historically elevated.
Looking ahead to the November 4 release, the key question is whether September trade flows reflect a normalised post-tariff environment or whether new policy developments, changes in energy production, or shifts in global demand have altered the trajectory. The US CPI Report November 2026, scheduled for November 10, will add context on whether import prices are feeding through to domestic consumer inflation.
Related Events This Week

US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) November 2026 — The jobs report on October 30 will set the macro tone for the week and provide context for interpreting the trade data on November 4.
Bank of England MPC Rate Decision November 2026 — The BoE rate decision on November 5 will follow the trade release by one day, and global trade data will feed into cross-border economic assessments.
US CPI Report November 2026 — Released November 10, the CPI reading will show whether import price pressures from the trade sector are feeding through to US consumer prices.

Frequently Asked Questions
What does the US International Trade Balance report measure?
The report measures the difference between the total value of US exports and imports of goods and services in the reference month. A negative number (deficit) indicates that the US imports more than it exports. Published jointly by the BEA and the Census Bureau under the designation FT-900, it covers both merchandise trade and cross-border services transactions.
When is the November 2026 trade balance report released?
The September 2026 trade balance data will be published on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This date was confirmed via the Census Bureau’s foreign trade release schedule.
How does the trade balance affect US GDP?
Net exports (the trade balance) are a component of US GDP. A wider trade deficit subtracts from headline GDP growth, while a narrowing deficit adds to it. This makes the monthly trade balance data an important input for economists and the Bureau of Economic Analysis in their GDP nowcast and revision calculations. A particularly large or unexpected swing in the monthly trade figure can meaningfully alter GDP estimates for the corresponding quarter.

US ISM Services PMI November 2026
2026-11-04 10:00 - 11:00 (America/New_York)
Next US ISM Services PMI: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
54.1% (July 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US ISM Services PMI.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US ISM Services PMI
The US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London time) by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The report covers business conditions in the services sector for October 2026, the month immediately before publication. Full schedule and background: US ISM Services PMI.
What is the ISM Services PMI?
The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index, officially called the Services PMI, is a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives at services companies across the United States, covering sectors such as finance, healthcare, retail, transport and hospitality. Because services make up roughly two-thirds of US economic output, the index is one of the clearest early signals of how the broader economy is faring.
Respondents are asked whether business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries improved, worsened or stayed the same compared with the previous month. These answers are combined into a headline “composite” index. A reading above 50.0% signals expansion in the services sector; a reading below 50.0% signals contraction. The distance from 50.0% roughly indicates the pace of change, though it is not a precise growth rate.
Markets watch the ISM Services PMI closely because it arrives early in the data calendar, well before official government output figures, and because its sub-indices, particularly the Prices Paid Index and the Employment Index, offer clues on inflation pressure and labour demand that feed directly into Federal Reserve thinking.
When is the October ISM Services PMI released?
The report covering October 2026 activity is expected on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm in London), published by the Institute for Supply Management on its official website. The ISM has not yet confirmed this exact date; the institute typically publishes the Services PMI on the third business day of the month following the survey period, so early November is the standard pattern for an October reading.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the October 2026 reading has not yet been published. Forecasts from economists surveyed by outlets such as Reuters and Trading Economics tend to appear in the days immediately before release, once September and other interim data are available.
The most recent confirmed reading available at the time of writing was for July 2026, when the headline index came in at 54.1%, a touch below the 54.5% forecast compiled by economists, according to Investing.com’s economic calendar. That followed a June 2026 reading of 54.0%, reported by Advisor Perspectives.

Measure
Prior (July 2026)
Consensus (October 2026)

Headline Services PMI
54.1%
Not yet published

Business Activity Index
Not separately confirmed
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Could be read as reducing pressure for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, potentially supporting the dollar and Treasury yields
The services side of the economy, where most jobs sit, is holding up better than expected

In line with consensus
Likely limited market reaction, as the outcome would already be priced in
The services sector is growing at roughly the pace economists expected, so little changes

Below consensus
May be read as strengthening the case for rate cuts, which can weigh on the dollar and support equities
Businesses are seeing softer demand or hiring plans, a possible early warning sign for the wider economy

These are possibilities discussed by market commentators, not predictions. Actual reactions depend on other data released around the same time and on what the Federal Reserve has signalled at its most recent meeting.
Why does this release matter right now?
The services sector has stayed in expansion territory through most of 2026, with the composite index printing above the 50.0% threshold in each of the months tracked by Advisor Perspectives and Investing.com data cited above. The Federal Reserve has been weighing a softening labour market against inflation that remains above its 2% target, and the ISM Services report’s Prices Paid and Employment components are among the inputs policymakers reference when assessing that balance. A run of weaker services readings would add to the debate over further interest rate cuts, while a stronger print could reinforce arguments for a pause.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and loans: A weak services reading can increase expectations of Fed rate cuts, which may eventually flow through to lower mortgage and borrowing costs in the US, and can influence sentiment around interest rate paths in the UK and eurozone too, since global bond yields move together.
Savings: If the data pushes rate-cut expectations higher, savings account and fixed-deposit rates in the US could drift lower over time; savers holding dollar-denominated cash may want to watch this.
Jobs and wages: The Employment Index within the report offers an early read on services hiring intentions, relevant to anyone working in retail, healthcare, finance or hospitality, sectors that make up the bulk of US jobs.
Prices: The Prices Paid Index tracks input cost pressure for services firms, which can signal whether inflation is likely to ease or persist, affecting the cost of everyday services from insurance to travel.
Investments, pensions and currencies: Equity markets, particularly shares tied to consumer and business spending, can move on the release, and the dollar often reacts against the pound and euro depending on whether the data shifts rate-cut expectations. Pension funds with US equity or bond exposure can see modest short-term swings in value around the release.

Related events

Previous ISM Services PMI release: US ISM Services PMI, October 2026
US ISM Manufacturing PMI, released earlier in the same week each month
US nonfarm payrolls, typically released the Friday before the ISM Services report

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the ISM Services PMI released?
The report is expected at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London, on the scheduled release date.
How do I read the ISM Services PMI number?
A reading above 50.0% means the services sector is expanding compared with the prior month; below 50.0% signals contraction. The further from 50.0%, the more pronounced the change.
How does this data affect interest rates?
The Federal Reserve monitors services activity and prices data as part of its assessment of inflation and labour market conditions, so unexpectedly strong or weak readings can shift market expectations for future rate decisions.
Where can I find the official ISM Services PMI release?
The Institute for Supply Management publishes the report directly on its official website, and it is also distributed through financial newswires such as Reuters and Bloomberg.
When is the next ISM Services PMI released after this one?
The following report, covering November 2026 data, is typically published in early December 2026, again around the third business day of the month.
← Previous US ISM Services PMI

Norges Bank Rate Decision November 2026
2026-11-05 04:00 - 05:00 (America/New_York)
Next Norges Bank Rate Decision: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:00 am CET (4:00 am ET, 9:00 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Held at 4.25% (September 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Norges Bank Rate Decision.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Norges Bank Rate Decision
Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee announces its next interest rate decision on Thursday, November 5, 2026, at 10:00 am CET (4:00 am ET, 9:00 am London time). The committee currently holds Norway’s policy rate at 4.25%, following a hold at the September 2026 meeting. Full schedule and background: Norges Bank Rate Decision.
What is the Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee and what does it decide?
The Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee is the body inside Norges Bank, Norway’s central bank, responsible for setting the policy rate, the interest rate at which commercial banks can place overnight deposits with the central bank. The committee’s mandate is to keep annual consumer price inflation close to 2%, while also contributing to stable output and employment and to counteracting the build-up of financial imbalances, such as excessive household debt or asset price bubbles.
The committee is chaired by the Governor of Norges Bank, currently Ida Wolden Bache, and includes the two deputy governors and external members appointed by the King in Council. Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, Norges Bank’s committee typically reaches decisions by consensus rather than a recorded vote, though dissent is occasionally noted in the minutes.
Norges Bank normally holds eight monetary policy meetings a year, roughly every six weeks, with four of those meetings accompanied by a full Monetary Policy Report containing new economic forecasts, and the other four being interim decisions based on updated data without a fresh set of projections.
When is the November Norges Bank decision announced?
The rate decision is announced on Thursday, November 5, 2026, at 10:00 am CET, which is 4:00 am ET and 9:00 am in London. Norges Bank publishes a short policy statement alongside the decision, followed by a press conference at which the Governor takes questions from journalists. This meeting is an interim decision, meaning the committee will not publish an updated Monetary Policy Report; the most recent full projections came with the September 2026 meeting. Norges Bank does not release separate “minutes” in the way the Federal Reserve or Bank of England do, but the statement itself sets out the committee’s reasoning in detail and is typically the main document markets scrutinise.
What to expect
Norges Bank held its policy rate at 4.25% at the September 2026 meeting, having raised it from 4% at the May 2026 meeting. Before that, the rate had been held at 4% across the November 2025, December 2025, January 2026 and March 2026 meetings. Economists and market participants will be watching Norwegian inflation and wage data released ahead of the November meeting for clues on whether the committee leans towards holding again or signalling a cut later in 2026 or in early 2027. A consensus forecast for the November decision has not yet been published.

Meeting
Decision
Rate after meeting

November 2025
Hold
4.00%

December 2025
Hold
4.00%

January 2026
Hold
4.00%

March 2026
Hold
4.00%

May 2026
Raise (+0.25pp)
4.25%

September 2026
Hold
4.25%

Source: Norges Bank policy rate decisions.
Market impact scenarios

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Hold at 4.25%
Broadly neutral for the Norwegian krone if guidance is unchanged; traders will focus on the statement’s tone for hints on the timing of a future cut
Borrowing costs in Norway stay where they are for now, and mortgage and savings rates linked to the policy rate do not move immediately

Cut of 25bp
Likely to weaken the krone against the euro and dollar, as lower Norwegian rates reduce the currency’s yield appeal
Cheaper borrowing for Norwegian households and businesses, but savers earn less on deposits, and imports become marginally more expensive if the krone falls

Guidance shift (hold, but signals earlier cuts)
Norwegian government bond yields could fall even without an immediate rate change, as markets price in the signalled path
No change today, but mortgage rates and fixed-term savings products may start adjusting in anticipation of cuts later in the cycle

What will the statement and press conference signal?
Analysts will read the statement closely for forward guidance on the timing of the first rate cut in this cycle, given that the rate has been held at 4.25% since May 2026. Key questions include whether the committee still views the current rate as sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the 2% target, and how it is weighing recent wage settlement data against the risk that a stronger krone or slowing growth argues for an earlier move lower.
Because this is an interim meeting without a new Monetary Policy Report, the statement carries extra weight as the main written signal of the committee’s thinking. Journalists at the press conference will likely press the Governor on household debt levels, the housing market and any risks from global trade or energy prices that could feed into Norwegian inflation. Dissent within the committee, while less common than at some other central banks, would be notable if it appeared, as it would suggest a split view on the pace of future policy.
What It Means for Your Money
For homeowners in Norway with mortgages tied to the policy rate, a hold means monthly repayments stay roughly the same, while a cut would gradually feed through to lower variable mortgage rates, easing pressure on household budgets. Savers with Norwegian bank deposits would see slightly lower returns if the rate is cut, though a hold keeps existing savings rates broadly intact for now.
Currency markets watch this decision closely because Norway is not part of the eurozone and the krone trades independently. A rate cut would tend to make the krone weaker against the euro and the pound, which matters for anyone travelling to Norway, for Norwegian exporters and importers, and for UK or eurozone investors holding Norwegian assets or Norwegian government bonds. A stronger-than-expected hold, or hawkish language, tends to support the krone.
For pension funds and investors in Europe more broadly, Norges Bank’s decisions feed into the wider picture of how quickly European central banks are moving through this rate cycle. Norway’s oil-linked economy and sovereign wealth fund also mean its interest rate path is watched by global asset managers, even though Norway is a smaller economy than the eurozone, the UK or the US. Investors holding Norwegian equities or krone-denominated bonds should expect some price movement around the announcement, particularly if the tone differs from what was priced in beforehand.
Related events

Previous decision: Norges Bank Rate Decision, September 2026
Full calendar and history: Norges Bank Rate Decision hub page
Norway’s consumer price inflation data, released ahead of the meeting, is a key input the committee weighs alongside wage growth and krone movements

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Norges Bank decision announced?
The decision is announced at 10:00 am CET on November 5, 2026, which is 4:00 am ET and 9:00 am London time.
What is the current Norwegian policy rate?
The policy rate has stood at 4.25% since the May 2026 meeting, following a hold at the September 2026 meeting.
Will Norges Bank cut rates in November 2026?
A consensus forecast has not yet been published; markets will react to whichever way the statement leans, whether a hold, a cut, or guidance pointing to a future move.
When is the next Norges Bank meeting after November 2026?
Norges Bank typically meets roughly every six weeks; check the Norges Bank Rate Decision hub page for the confirmed date of the following meeting.
Where can I watch the press conference?
Norges Bank streams the press conference live on its own website following the release of the policy statement.
← Previous Norges Bank Rate Decision

Bank of England MPC Rate Decision November 2026
2026-11-05 07:00 - 08:00 (America/New_York)
Next Bank of England MPC Rate Decision: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 pm GMT (7:00 am ET, 12:00 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Bank of England MPC Rate Decision.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Bank of England MPC Rate DecisionNext Bank of England MPC Rate Decision →
The Bank of England will announce its November 2026 interest rate decision on Thursday, 5 November 2026, at 12:00 noon GMT. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets eight times a year, and November is one of four meetings accompanied by a Monetary Policy Report (MPR), providing updated forecasts for inflation, growth, and employment over a three-year horizon. As of the most recent decision in April 2026, Bank Rate stands at 3.75%, held since December 2025.
Bank of England MPC Decision: November 5, 2026
The November meeting carries particular weight because it produces the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, which sets out the MPC’s updated central projections and fan charts for inflation and GDP. The November MPR will provide the clearest signal yet about whether the Bank sees scope for easing in 2027, or whether persistent inflation will require rates to remain on hold, or rise, through the year ahead.
Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% since December 2025, when the MPC cut by 25 basis points in a narrow 5-4 vote. Three consecutive decisions since then have resulted in holds. In April 2026, the MPC voted 8-1 to hold, with one member dissenting in favour of raising Bank Rate to 4.00%, citing continued above-target inflation and the risk of energy-price second-round effects stemming from the Middle East conflict. Markets and independent forecasters are divided on the outlook: some expect one or two cuts before year-end 2026, while others, including Oxford Economics, forecast no change through 2026 and into 2027.
The decision will be announced at 12:00 noon GMT on Thursday, 5 November 2026. The MPC’s vote breakdown and the full MPR will be published simultaneously.
What to Expect
The primary factor shaping the November decision will be the trajectory of UK consumer price inflation. The Office for National Statistics reported CPI inflation of 2.8% in the twelve months to April 2026, down from 3.3% in March, with the improvement driven largely by the introduction of the energy price cap on 1 April 2026. However, services inflation remained elevated, and the Bank’s own April MPR projected CPI rising to 3.3% in the third quarter of 2026, a forecast 1.4 percentage points higher than its February projection, reflecting sharply higher energy and food prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
Whether those projections prove accurate will be central to the November deliberations. If energy prices moderate through the summer and autumn, the Bank’s near-term inflation profile will ease, potentially reopening the debate about cuts. If they remain elevated, the MPC’s hawkish minority may grow, and a hike cannot be ruled out.
Labour market data will also matter. UK unemployment has remained low throughout 2026, and Average Weekly Earnings growth, while slowing from the peaks of 2023 and 2024, has remained above levels consistent with the 2% inflation target. The Bank watches wage dynamics closely as a leading indicator of domestically generated inflation. Any acceleration in earnings growth in the data available before November would make a cut significantly less likely.
Fiscal policy is a further consideration. Autumn Budget decisions and any changes to government spending or taxation could have implications for aggregate demand and, by extension, the inflation outlook. The Bank will incorporate any fiscal announcements into its MPR projections.
Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Rate
Vote

April 2026
Hold
3.75%
8-1

March 2026
Hold
3.75%
9-0

February 2026
Hold
3.75%
Majority

December 2025
Cut 25bp
3.75%
5-4

November 2025
Hold
4.00%
5-4

August 2025
Cut 25bp
4.00%
Majority

May 2025
Cut 25bp
4.25%
7-2

February 2025
Hold
4.50%
Majority

Market Impact Scenarios

Hold at 3.75% (consensus) – A hold is the most likely outcome if inflation remains above target through the summer. Sterling would likely hold steady against the euro and dollar. Gilt yields would see limited movement. Markets would focus on the MPR’s forward guidance: a projection showing inflation returning sustainably to target by 2027 would be interpreted as pre-conditioning for future cuts, likely supporting short-dated gilts. The vote split will matter: a unanimous hold is more hawkish than a hold with several members favouring a cut.
Cut 25bp to 3.50% – A cut to 3.50% would represent a significant positive surprise for bond markets, requiring clear evidence that inflation had fallen decisively and that the Middle East energy shock had proved transitory. Sterling would likely weaken 0.5-1.0% on the day against major peers. Gilt prices would rally across the curve, particularly in shorter maturities. Such a move would require a markedly dovish MPR, with inflation projected to return to 2% by mid-2027 or earlier.
Hike 25bp to 4.00% – A hike would be the biggest surprise and is not currently priced by markets. It would signal that the Bank views inflation risks as decisively tilted upward, likely due to an inflation re-acceleration or a persistently tight labour market. Sterling would strengthen sharply. UK gilts would sell off across the curve. Equity markets would react negatively, with rate-sensitive sectors including housing, retail, and financials particularly affected.

The size of any rate move matters as much as the direction. A 50 basis point cut or hike, while highly unlikely, would represent a decisive shift in policy stance and generate outsized market reaction. The MPC has historically preferred gradualism in both directions.
Press Conference and Forward Guidance
Following the noon announcement, the Governor of the Bank of England will hold a press conference at approximately 12:30 pm GMT to present the Monetary Policy Report and take questions from journalists. This press conference is one of the more closely watched events in the UK financial calendar. The Governor’s framing of the economic outlook, language around the future rate path, and tone in response to questions can move markets as much as the rate decision itself.
Key phrases to monitor include any reference to the policy rate being “restrictive”, whether the MPC characterises risks to inflation as “balanced” or “skewed to the upside”, and whether forward guidance is framed as data-dependent or offers any implicit timetable for future moves. The MPR fan charts will be scrutinised for whether the central projection for CPI returns to 2% within the two-year forecast horizon, which is the Bank’s primary remit. Any language suggesting openness to easing in early 2027 would be taken as a dovish signal, while a projection showing inflation remaining above target throughout 2027 would support an extended hold, or even a hike.
Related Events

Bank of England MPC Rate Decision September 2026 – The preceding MPC decision, providing context for how policy evolved in the run-up to November.
Bank of England MPC Rate Decision December 2026 – The next scheduled MPC decision following November, also a non-MPR meeting.
FOMC Rate Decision October 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s rate decision in October, providing global monetary policy context for the Bank of England’s November deliberations.

Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bank of England’s mandate and how does the MPC decide on Bank Rate?
The Bank of England’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, defined as a CPI inflation rate of 2%. The Monetary Policy Committee, which comprises nine members including the Governor, Deputy Governors, and external experts, sets Bank Rate by majority vote at each scheduled meeting. When the Bank Rate deviates from 2% by more than 1 percentage point, the Governor must write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining why and what action is being taken.
When exactly will the November 2026 MPC decision be announced?
The Bank of England will publish the MPC decision, vote breakdown, Monetary Policy Summary, and full Monetary Policy Report simultaneously at 12:00 noon GMT on Thursday, 5 November 2026. A press conference with the Governor will follow at approximately 12:30 pm GMT.
What does a Bank Rate change mean for UK borrowers and savers?
Bank Rate is the interest rate the Bank of England charges commercial banks to borrow money overnight, and it directly influences the rates those banks offer on mortgages, loans, and savings accounts. A cut in Bank Rate typically leads to lower mortgage rates and reduced returns on savings. A hike does the opposite. Variable-rate and tracker mortgage holders are most immediately affected, while fixed-rate borrowers are insulated until their deal expires.

US Initial Jobless Claims: November 5, 2026
2026-11-05 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
203,000 (week ended August 15, 2026, most recent confirmed figure found in research)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims
The US Department of Labor releases its weekly Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday, November 5, 2026, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). This is one in a continuous series of weekly reports, and it will cover the week ending around November 1, 2026. Initial jobless claims count the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time, and it is one of the most immediate signals of labour-market health available to investors, economists and the Federal Reserve. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of publication, a consensus forecast for the week ending around November 1, 2026 has not yet been published. Forecasts for weekly claims are typically released only a day or two before the report, once economists have seen recent seasonal patterns and any distorting factors such as public holidays or severe weather.
For context, claims have generally held in a low range through much of 2026. In mid-August 2026, claims fell by 4,000 to 203,000, “below market expectations that they would rise to 208,000”, according to Trading Economics, which also noted claims touched a near 60-year low of 189,000 in mid-July 2026. Continuing claims, which measure people still receiving benefits after their initial claim, stood near 1,777,000 in the same period, per Trading Economics. These figures illustrate the recent trend rather than a fixed prior for this specific release, since the actual reading for the week ending November 1, 2026 has not yet been published.

Measure
Recent trend (mid-2026)
Consensus for November 5 release

Initial claims
Roughly 189,000 to 209,000 range
Not yet published

Continuing claims
Around 1,777,000 to 1,819,000
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Above consensus (once published)
Bond yields could fall, dollar may soften, as traders price a weaker labour market and a higher chance of Fed rate cuts
More people lost jobs and applied for benefits than expected, a sign hiring may be slowing

In line with consensus
Limited market reaction; existing rate expectations largely unchanged
The labour market is behaving broadly as expected, neither strengthening nor weakening sharply

Below consensus
Yields could rise, dollar may firm, as a resilient labour market reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut rates
Fewer people than expected filed for benefits, suggesting employers are still holding onto staff

Why it matters this week
Weekly jobless claims are watched closely because they are the freshest labour-market data available, arriving well before the monthly non-farm payrolls report. Through much of 2026, claims have stayed relatively low by historical standards, which the Federal Reserve has treated as evidence that the labour market remains reasonably resilient even as it weighs the pace of any further interest rate changes. A sustained rise in claims, or a jump in continuing claims, would suggest that laid-off workers are struggling to find new jobs, a pattern the Fed tends to treat as more concerning than a single volatile weekly print.
Because claims data can be distorted by public holidays, government shutdown effects, or seasonal hiring swings around the autumn period, economists generally caution against reading too much into any single week’s number in isolation, preferring to track the four-week moving average instead.
What It Means for Your Money
If claims rise sharply and the labour market looks like it is weakening, markets often price in a higher chance of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This can eventually feed through to lower mortgage rates and cheaper borrowing costs in the US, though the effect on UK and European mortgage rates is more indirect, largely through shifts in global bond yields.
For savers, higher jobless claims and expectations of rate cuts can mean lower returns on cash savings accounts over time, since central banks tend to lower rates when the economy is cooling. For anyone with investments or a pension, a weaker labour market reading can unsettle share prices in the short term, particularly for companies sensitive to consumer spending, while a stronger-than-expected reading can support the dollar against the pound and the euro.
None of these effects are automatic or immediate. A single weekly claims report rarely moves markets or interest rates on its own, but a run of weaker or stronger readings can shift expectations meaningfully over several weeks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 5, 2026 jobless claims report released?
The report is released at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London, by the US Department of Labor.
What counts as a significant miss versus consensus?
Once a consensus is published, economists generally consider a difference of more than 15,000 to 20,000 claims from the forecast to be notable, though the reaction also depends on the trend in the weeks before and after.
When is the next jobless claims report?
Jobless claims are published every Thursday. Check the US Initial Jobless Claims schedule for the exact date and time of the following week’s release.
Where does this data come from?
The figures are compiled and published weekly by the US Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration, based on state unemployment insurance filings.
← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims

US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) November 2026
2026-11-06 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls): Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers October 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls).
Updated August 25, 2026

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Employment Situation report for October 2026 on Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report will reveal job creation during October, providing a key labour market reading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2026 on December 9.

At a Glance

Release date: Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET
Publishing body: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Reference month: October 2026
Most recent reading: +172,000 jobs, unemployment 4.3% (May 2026)
Market impact: High

What is the Employment Situation Report?
The Employment Situation is the most closely watched monthly economic release in the United States, published by the BLS on the first Friday of each month. It covers two separate surveys: the establishment survey (non-farm payroll employment and average hourly earnings) and the household survey (unemployment rate and labour force participation). Together, they provide the most comprehensive monthly snapshot of US labour market conditions.
The headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure represents the net change in employment across all non-agricultural industries. Beyond the headline, analysts examine the unemployment rate, wage growth, participation rate, and revisions to the prior two months.
The November 2026 release covers October 2026 employment data.
US Employment Situation Release: November 6, 2026
The November 6 release will cover October 2026 labour market data. By this point, the cumulative effect of 2026’s monetary policy stance on labour market conditions will be increasingly visible. The most recent reading, from June 5, 2026, showed +172,000 jobs added in May, above the forecast of 85,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%.
The November release will also provide the first look at whether the sector that bore most of the impact from higher interest rates in 2026, including real estate, construction, and finance, showed significant change through the autumn. Consensus forecasts for October payrolls are not yet available at time of publication.
Why This Employment Report Matters
The November 6 NFP is one of the final major labour market readings before the FOMC meets on December 9 to make its last rate decision of 2026. Alongside the November 10 CPI release and the November 25 PCE data, it forms the core of the pre-December-meeting data set. A combination of cooling labour and cooling inflation would strongly increase the probability of a year-end rate cut.
By November, markets will have accumulated a full picture of Q3 labour market health. If the September and October payrolls readings show the labour market is softening, the December FOMC will be a live event for a cut. If labour remains strong, the Fed is more likely to hold. The November 6 report will be a critical data point in that determination.
Wage growth data within the report will also influence the inflation outlook. If average hourly earnings growth is decelerating towards or below the inflation rate, real wage growth turns positive, which is consumer-positive but also signals reduced wage-push inflation risk, giving the Fed more flexibility to ease.
What to Watch For

Above consensus: A strong payrolls reading above expectations would reduce the probability of a December rate cut, push Treasury yields higher, and likely strengthen the US dollar. Equity markets could face headwinds as rate-cut expectations are pushed into 2027.
In line with consensus: A broadly matching reading would keep the December decision as a close call. Attention would shift to the November 10 CPI and November 25 PCE as the more decisive inputs for December. The FOMC meeting will hinge on the full combination of data.
Below consensus: A weak reading, particularly if accompanied by a rising unemployment rate, would increase the probability of a December rate cut to a majority expectation. Bonds and equities would rally; the US dollar would weaken. A reading below 75,000 with a higher unemployment rate would significantly increase recession risk pricing.

Sector composition will matter. Payroll gains driven by government and healthcare are often viewed as less economically cyclical and less financially sensitive than gains in construction, manufacturing, and professional services. The composition of job creation can qualify the strength or weakness of the headline number.
Historical Context

Month
Jobs Added
Unemployment Rate

May 2026
+172,000
4.3%

April 2026 (revised)
+179,000
4.3%

March 2026 (revised)
+185,000
4.3%

January 2026
+130,000
4.4%

May 2025
+139,000
—

January 2025
+143,000
—

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Revised figures as of the June 2026 release. 2025 data reflects a period of subdued job growth averaging approximately 15,000 per month.
Market Positioning
By November 2026, the Federal Reserve’s policy communication will have narrowed the range of plausible outcomes for December. Fed funds futures and the bond market will be calibrated to whatever forward guidance was provided at the October and September meetings. The November 6 NFP will either confirm or challenge the prevailing expectation, making it a potentially high-volatility release depending on where consensus sits at the time.
For equities, November is typically a month of stronger seasonal performance, and a soft NFP reading early in the month could amplify the usual end-of-year risk appetite. Conversely, a surprisingly strong report might trigger a yields-driven correction as the December rate-cut trade is unwound.
Related Events

US CPI Report November 2026 – The October 2026 inflation reading on November 10, the other major input for the December FOMC decision.
FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of 2026 on December 9, for which this NFP report is a primary input.
Bank of England MPC Rate Decision November 2026 – The BoE meeting on November 5, one day before the NFP release, offering a global monetary policy and employment context.

Frequently Asked Questions
What is included in the Employment Situation report?
The Employment Situation includes data from two monthly BLS surveys: the establishment survey, covering payroll employment, hours worked, and average hourly earnings across industries, and the household survey, measuring the unemployment rate, labour force participation, and the number of people employed and unemployed. Together they provide the most complete monthly picture of the US labour market.
When is the November 2026 NFP released?
The November 2026 Employment Situation report will be released on Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report covers labour market activity during October 2026.
How does the November NFP feed into the December FOMC decision?
The November 6 NFP is one of the final two major labour market readings before the FOMC meets on December 9. The Fed will weigh employment alongside the November 10 CPI and November 25 PCE data when deciding whether to cut, hold, or raise rates. A weaker-than-expected jobs report combined with cooling inflation would increase the probability of a December rate cut significantly.
Featured image: Photo by Zoshua Colah on Unsplash.

Canada Labour Force Survey November 2026
2026-11-06 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next Canada Labour Force Survey: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
6.5% unemployment, +18,000 jobs (June 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Canada Labour Force Survey.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Canada Labour Force Survey
Statistics Canada publishes the Labour Force Survey for November 2026 on Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). The release covers October 2026 labour market activity, including the national unemployment rate, employment change and average hourly wages. Full background and the release calendar are on the Canada Labour Force Survey hub page.
What is the Labour Force Survey?
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is Statistics Canada’s monthly measure of employment, unemployment and wages. Field staff survey roughly 68,000 households, drawing on responses from everyone in the household aged 15 or older, whether they work or not. From this sample, Statistics Canada estimates national and provincial employment levels, the unemployment rate (the share of the labour force actively looking for work), the participation rate and the employment rate (employed people as a share of the working-age population).
Markets watch the LFS because it is the timeliest, broadest read on the Canadian labour market. The Bank of Canada references it directly when setting interest rates, and a surprise in either direction can move the Canadian dollar, government bond yields and rate expectations within minutes of release. It is also one of the only major economies to publish a monthly jobs report with a headline unemployment rate, participation rate and wage growth figure all in one release, similar in scope to the US non-farm payrolls report published the same week.
Because the survey samples a fixed group of households each month, the month-to-month change can be noisy. Economists therefore tend to look at three-month averages and year-over-year trends rather than reacting only to a single month’s headline number.
When is the October 2026 Labour Force Survey released?
Statistics Canada releases the report at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time) on Friday, November 6, 2026. It appears in The Daily, Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin, alongside detailed tables on employment by province, industry, age group and gender. The full report and supporting tables are published on the Statistics Canada release schedule. Statistics Canada has historically released the LFS on the first or second Friday of the month covering the prior month’s data, and this date follows that pattern.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of writing, a consensus forecast for the October 2026 Labour Force Survey has not yet been published. Economist estimates for Canadian jobs data are typically compiled by Bloomberg and Reuters in the days immediately before release, so a median forecast for unemployment, job creation and wage growth should appear closer to November 6, 2026.
The most recent confirmed StatCan figures at the time of writing come from the June 2026 Labour Force Survey, which is the latest print for which full official data could be verified for this preview.

Measure
June 2026 reading
October 2026 consensus

Unemployment rate
6.5%
Not yet published

Net employment change
+18,000
Not yet published

Readers should check StatCan’s The Daily or a financial data provider close to release day for an updated consensus, since forecasts firm up in the final week before a jobs report.
What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus (stronger jobs, lower unemployment)
Canadian dollar could firm and bond yields could rise on reduced odds of near-term Bank of Canada rate cuts
More people are working and finding it easier to get hired, which typically supports household spending

In line with consensus
A muted market reaction is plausible, with attention shifting to wage growth and hours worked details
The labour market is behaving broadly as expected, so borrowing costs and job prospects are unlikely to shift quickly

Below consensus (weaker jobs, higher unemployment)
Markets could price in a higher chance of a Bank of Canada rate cut, pressuring the Canadian dollar lower
Fewer jobs were added or more people are out of work, which can be an early sign of a softening economy

These are possibilities discussed by economists around each release, not predictions of what will happen on November 6, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of Canada uses the Labour Force Survey as one of its key inputs when deciding whether to hold, cut or raise its policy interest rate. Through the first half of 2026, StatCan’s own commentary noted that the unemployment rate had drifted higher, rising to 6.9% in April 2026 “as more people searched for work” before easing to 6.5% in June 2026, according to the Statistics Canada Daily release for June 2026. That earlier StatCan release also noted the unemployment rate had “increased 0.4 percentage points since January 2026,” pointing to a gradually softening labour market over the year.
Wage growth is another area of focus. In prior LFS releases, StatCan reported average hourly wages rising by roughly 3% year over year, a pace the Bank of Canada watches closely because faster wage growth can feed into inflation, while slower wage growth can signal weaker household spending power ahead.
Because the October 2026 data lands only a few weeks before the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled policy announcement, this report carries extra weight for anyone trying to gauge the direction of Canadian interest rates into early 2027.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and borrowing: A weaker-than-expected jobs report can raise the odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut, which could eventually flow through to lower variable mortgage rates and loan costs. A stronger report can do the opposite.
Savings rates: If the data supports a rate cut, savings account and GIC rates offered by Canadian banks may drift lower over time as the central bank’s rate moves through the system.
Jobs and wages: The headline unemployment rate and wage growth figures give a direct read on how easy it is to find work and whether pay is keeping up with the cost of living.
Investments and pensions: Canadian equities, especially banks and consumer-facing companies, can react to jobs data because it signals the health of consumer spending, which feeds into pension fund and retirement account returns.
Currencies: A surprise in the report can move the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, the pound and the euro, affecting the cost of Canadian travel, imports and cross-border investment for people well outside Canada.

Related events

The previous month’s release: Canada Labour Force Survey, October 2026
The Bank of Canada’s next scheduled interest rate decision, which weighs recent labour market data heavily
Canada’s monthly inflation report (Consumer Price Index), which the Bank of Canada reads alongside jobs data

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 Labour Force Survey released?
Statistics Canada releases the report at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London, on Friday, November 6, 2026.
How do I read the headline number?
Focus on the unemployment rate, the net change in employment, and the direction of wage growth together, since a single month’s job count can be volatile on its own.
How does this report affect interest rates?
The Bank of Canada factors the Labour Force Survey into its assessment of slack in the economy, so persistently weak jobs data can raise the odds of a rate cut, while strong data can reduce them.
Where can I find the official release?
The report is published in The Daily on the Statistics Canada website, alongside the full release schedule.
When is the next Labour Force Survey released?
Statistics Canada typically releases the following month’s report on the first or second Friday of December 2026, covering November 2026 data.
← Previous Canada Labour Force Survey

China CPI November 2026
2026-11-08 20:30 - 21:30 (America/New_York)
Next China CPI: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 9:30 am CST (8:30 pm ET, 1:30 am London). Covers October 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Not independently confirmed for this preview; see NBS official release
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: China CPI.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous China CPI
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2026 is scheduled for release on Monday, November 9, 2026, at 9:30 am China Standard Time (8:30 pm ET on Sunday, November 8, or 1:30 am London time on Monday). The data is published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and covers price changes for October 2026. Full schedule and background: China CPI.
What is China’s CPI?
China’s CPI tracks the average change in prices paid by urban and rural households for a fixed basket of goods and services, including food, housing, transport, healthcare and education. It is the country’s main gauge of consumer-level inflation and is released monthly by the NBS.
Unlike many Western economies, China’s inflation basket carries a heavier weighting toward food, particularly pork, which means volatile pig prices can swing the headline number sharply from month to month. The NBS also publishes a “core” reading that strips out food and energy prices, giving a steadier read on underlying demand.
Investors, policymakers and businesses watch this release closely because China is the world’s second-largest economy. Persistently weak or negative CPI readings (deflation) can signal soft domestic demand, which has knock-on effects for global commodity prices, corporate earnings for multinational firms exposed to China, and the direction of the yuan.
When is the November 2026 China CPI released?
The NBS is scheduled to release the CPI report covering October 2026 data on Monday, November 9, 2026, at 9:30 am China Standard Time. This is 8:30 pm ET the previous evening (Sunday, November 8) in New York, and 1:30 am in London on the Monday. The figures are published on the NBS website and distributed simultaneously to major data providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the October 2026 China CPI reading has not yet been published by major polling services. Economists surveyed by Reuters and Bloomberg typically release their median forecasts in the days immediately before the NBS publication date, so figures should firm up closer to release.
The prior reading (for September 2026 data) has not been independently verified in this preview through a live data check. Readers should treat any figure quoted elsewhere with caution until confirmed against the official NBS release, linked above, or a reputable data provider such as Trading Economics or Reuters.

Measure
Prior (September 2026)
Consensus (October 2026)

Headline CPI, year-on-year
Not yet confirmed
Not yet published

Core CPI, year-on-year
Not yet confirmed
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Traders may read this as a sign that domestic demand and pricing power are firming, potentially easing pressure on Beijing to add further stimulus
Prices are rising faster than expected, which could mean stronger consumer spending but also less room for further rate cuts

In line with consensus
Analysts are likely to treat an in-line print as confirmation of the existing low-inflation trend, with limited market reaction
Nothing surprising happens; the broad picture of subdued price growth in China continues unchanged

Below consensus
A weaker-than-expected print could reinforce concerns about deflationary pressure and add to calls for further monetary or fiscal support, according to economists who track China’s People’s Bank policy stance
Prices are rising more slowly, or falling, which can be a warning sign of weak demand across the economy

These are possible market interpretations, not predictions. Actual reactions depend on the wider news backdrop on the day, including any accompanying producer price data and policy signals from the People’s Bank of China.
Why does this release matter right now?
China has spent much of the mid-2020s wrestling with unusually weak consumer price growth, a trend that policymakers and economists have linked to soft household spending, an extended property market downturn and excess industrial capacity. The People’s Bank of China and the State Council have both flagged boosting domestic consumption as a policy priority, making each CPI print a barometer of whether stimulus measures are gaining traction.
Global investors watch the release because sustained weak inflation in China can spill over into lower prices for goods China exports, affecting inflation readings and monetary policy decisions in other major economies, including the United States, the eurozone and the United Kingdom. Commodity markets, particularly industrial metals and energy, also take cues from Chinese demand signals embedded in the inflation and related producer price data.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and rates: If Chinese inflation stays weak, it adds to the case for the People’s Bank of China to keep policy loose, which can keep Chinese borrowing costs low but has limited direct effect on UK or US mortgage rates, which are driven mainly by domestic central bank decisions.
Savings: Investors holding China-focused funds or emerging market bond funds may see returns move on the back of this data, as weak inflation often accompanies lower Chinese bond yields.
Jobs and wages: Persistently weak Chinese demand can affect global manufacturers and exporters who sell into China, including firms in Germany, South Korea and Japan, with potential knock-on effects for employment in those supply chains.
Prices: Weak Chinese consumer prices can translate into cheaper Chinese-made goods reaching shelves in Europe and North America, which can help keep imported inflation lower for households abroad.
Investments and pensions and currencies: The yuan, and by extension currencies with close trade links to China such as the Australian dollar, can react to surprises in this data. Pension funds with China or broader Asia exposure may see portfolio values shift on the day of release.

Related events

Previous release: China CPI, October 2026 data
China’s Producer Price Index (PPI), usually released alongside CPI, which tracks prices charged by factories and gives an earlier read on industrial demand
People’s Bank of China policy announcements, which respond in part to the inflation trend shown in this series

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the China CPI released?
The NBS publishes the report at 9:30 am China Standard Time, which is 8:30 pm ET the previous evening and 1:30 am in London.
How do I read the China CPI figure?
Look at the year-on-year headline number for the broad trend, then check the core reading, which excludes food and energy, for a steadier gauge of underlying demand.
How does China’s CPI affect interest rates?
Weak or negative readings tend to support the case for the People’s Bank of China to keep monetary policy loose, while stronger readings reduce pressure for further stimulus.
Where can I find the official release?
The data is published on the National Bureau of Statistics of China website.
When is the next China CPI release?
The following month’s report, covering November 2026 data, is typically published in the second week of December 2026, following the NBS’s usual monthly schedule.
← Previous China CPI
