financecalendar.com

Bank of Canada Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-09 09:45 - 10:45 (America/New_York)
Next Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Held at 2.25% (last confirmed July 15, 2026; unchanged since October 2025)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada Rate Decision.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Bank of Canada Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council announces its December policy interest rate decision on December 9, 2026 at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London time). The rate has been held at 2.25% through every scheduled decision since October 2025, when policymakers last cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (a basis point is one hundredth of one percentage point). This is the final rate announcement of 2026, and it is not accompanied by a quarterly Monetary Policy Report, which is instead published alongside the January, April, July and October decisions. Full schedule and background: Bank of Canada rate decisions.
What is the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council and what does it decide?
The Governing Council is the Bank of Canada’s senior decision-making body. It sets the target for the overnight rate, the interest rate at which major financial institutions lend to one another overnight, which in turn shapes the Bank’s Rate (currently 2.5%) and the deposit rate (currently 2.20%). Changes in the overnight rate feed through to the prime rates set by Canada’s big banks, which affect variable-rate mortgages, home equity lines of credit and business loans across the country.
The Council is chaired by the Governor, Tiff Macklem, and includes the Senior Deputy Governor and several Deputy Governors. Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada does not publish individual votes; decisions are presented as a collective judgement of the Governing Council reached by consensus rather than a recorded ballot.
The Bank’s mandate, agreed with the Government of Canada, is to keep inflation at the 2% target within a control range of 1% to 3%, while supporting maximum sustainable employment. It normally meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks, to review this mandate against incoming economic data.
When is the December Bank of Canada decision announced?
The decision is released in a written statement at 9:45 am ET (2:45 pm London time) on December 9, 2026. Because this is not one of the four Monetary Policy Report meetings, there is no accompanying set of new growth and inflation projections and no scheduled press conference in the way there is for January, April, July and October decisions; the Bank instead publishes a shorter statement explaining its reasoning. The summary of deliberations, the closest Canadian equivalent to meeting minutes, is normally released roughly two weeks after each decision.
What to expect
According to reporting from Canadian Mortgage Trends, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% at every one of its scheduled decisions through July 2026, having last moved rates in October 2025 with a 25 basis point cut. Coverage from Immigration News Canada in late July 2026 noted a “growing consensus among economists that the Bank’s next move will be a hike rather than a cut”, with the overnight rate sitting at the bottom of the Bank’s estimated 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range. The September 2 and October 28, 2026 decisions fall between that reporting and this December meeting; for the most recently confirmed outcome ahead of December, see the October 2026 Bank of Canada decision page. A consensus forecast specific to the December 9, 2026 meeting has not yet been published by major polling desks this far in advance.

Meeting
Decision
Rate after meeting

October 2025
Cut, 25bp
2.25%

December 2025
Hold
2.25%

January 2026
Hold
2.25%

March 2026
Hold
2.25%

April 2026
Hold
2.25%

June 2026
Hold
2.25%

July 2026
Hold (with Monetary Policy Report)
2.25%

Market impact scenarios

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Hold at 2.25%
Likely read as consistent with the “prolonged hold” path described by analysts cited by nesto.ca; limited immediate reaction in the Canadian dollar or bond yields
Borrowing costs stay where they are; savers and mortgage holders see no immediate change

Hike
Would likely be read as a hawkish shift given commentary from Immigration News Canada pointing to growing hike expectations for 2027; could push the Canadian dollar higher against the US dollar and euro
Loans, mortgages and lines of credit become more expensive, but savings accounts and GICs typically pay more

Cut
Would be a surprise against current economist commentary and would likely weaken the Canadian dollar
Cheaper borrowing for mortgages and business loans, but lower returns on savings

What will the statement and press conference signal?
Because December is not a Monetary Policy Report meeting, the accompanying statement tends to be shorter, but markets will still parse it closely for forward guidance, meaning any hint about the likely direction of future decisions. Analysts will be watching for language on inflation’s path back to the 2% target, references to US trade policy and tariffs given Canada’s reliance on cross-border trade, and any signal about the neutral rate, the level at which policy is neither stimulating nor restricting the economy. With the overnight rate sitting at the low end of the Bank’s own estimated 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range, commentators will be alert to any wording suggesting the next move is more likely to be a hike than a further hold or cut. Because the Bank does not publish a recorded vote, there is no formal “dissent” to track in the way there is at the Fed or the Bank of England, though the summary of deliberations released roughly two weeks later can reveal a range of views within the Governing Council.
What It Means for Your Money
For Canadian mortgage holders, a hold means variable rates and lines of credit tied to bank prime rates stay unchanged; a hike would raise monthly payments on variable-rate and soon-to-renew mortgages, while a cut would lower them. Fixed-rate mortgages react more to bond yields than to the overnight rate itself, but the Bank’s tone can still move those yields. Savers with high-interest savings accounts or guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) would likely see slightly better returns after a hike and slightly worse ones after a cut, with banks typically adjusting these rates within days to weeks of a Bank of Canada move.
The decision also matters beyond Canada. A stronger or weaker Canadian dollar affects the cost of Canadian imports for UK and European buyers and the returns UK and eurozone investors get from Canadian assets when converted back into pounds or euros. Because the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are all navigating similar inflation and growth trade-offs, this decision is also watched as a read-across for how other central banks might be thinking, which can move global bond and equity markets, including pension funds and stock market index trackers held by ordinary savers in the UK and Europe.
Related events

Previous decision: Bank of Canada Rate Decision, October 2026
Full schedule: Bank of Canada rate decisions hub
Canada’s inflation and jobs data released in the weeks before this meeting typically shape the Governing Council’s final judgement

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Bank of Canada’s December 2026 decision announced?
The decision is released at 9:45 am ET, which is 2:45 pm in London, on December 9, 2026.
Will the Bank of Canada cut rates in December 2026?
No one can say in advance; the Bank had held its rate at 2.25% throughout 2026 up to July, and some economists cited by Immigration News Canada expected the next move to be a hike rather than a cut, but this is a possibility, not a certainty.
What is the Bank of Canada’s current policy rate?
The target for the overnight rate had been held at 2.25% since October 2025, according to the Bank of Canada’s own press releases, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.
When is the next Bank of Canada rate decision after December 2026?
The Bank’s 2027 schedule, published in July 2026, sets the first 2027 decision for January 27, 2027.
Where can I watch the Bank of Canada announcement?
The Bank of Canada publishes its statements directly on bankofcanada.ca, and major financial news outlets typically carry the release live at 9:45 am ET.
← Previous Bank of Canada Rate Decision

US Existing Home Sales December 2026
2026-12-09 10:00 - 11:00 (America/New_York)
Next US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
A consensus forecast has not yet been published
Prior
Not yet confirmed from the official NAR release at time of writing
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Existing Home Sales.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US Existing Home Sales
The US Existing Home Sales report for November 2026 data is released on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London) by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The report measures the pace at which previously owned homes changed hands during the month, and it is one of the two main gauges of US housing market activity alongside new home sales. Full schedule and background: US Existing Home Sales.
What is existing home sales?
Existing home sales tracks the number of previously owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops that closed during the reporting month, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Because the figure counts closings rather than new contracts, it reflects buying decisions made roughly one to two months earlier, when the mortgage rate at the time of the offer was locked in.
The NAR compiles the data from a survey of multiple listing services and brokers around the country. Alongside the headline sales pace, the report includes median sale price, months of supply, the share of cash buyers, and regional breakdowns for the Northeast, Midwest, South and West. Because roughly 90% of all US home sales are existing homes rather than new construction, this release is the primary window into the health of the housing market.
Investors and central bankers watch it because housing is highly sensitive to interest rates and because the sector influences consumer spending through wealth effects, home renovation activity and the pace of household formation. A sustained slowdown in sales can signal that higher mortgage rates are squeezing affordability, while a pickup can suggest buyers are adjusting to a new rate environment.
When is the November existing home sales report released?
The National Association of Realtors publishes the November 2026 existing home sales figures on December 9, 2026 at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London. The release is published on the NAR’s own website and distributed to newswires simultaneously. This date has been confirmed by the NAR’s release calendar and is not an estimate.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast from a major poll such as Reuters or Bloomberg for the November 2026 reading has not yet been published, and the prior month’s confirmed sales pace has not been verified against the NAR’s own release for this article. Readers should check the NAR’s official release or a live consensus tracker such as Investing.com or Trading Economics closer to the release date for the most current prior figure and survey median, since these can shift materially as the release date approaches.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Existing home sales (SAAR)
To be confirmed from the October 2026 NAR release
Not yet published

Median existing home price
To be confirmed from the October 2026 NAR release
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Could be read as a sign the housing market is stabilising or improving despite elevated mortgage rates, which some analysts suggest may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly
More people are successfully buying and selling homes than expected, which can support related spending on furniture, renovations and moving services

In line
Likely to have limited market impact since the figure was already priced in by traders
The housing market is behaving broadly as expected, offering no major surprise to buyers, sellers or renters

Below consensus
May be interpreted as evidence that high borrowing costs continue to weigh on the market, which some economists argue strengthens the case for future rate cuts
Fewer homes are changing hands than expected, which can signal that affordability pressures are holding back both buyers and sellers

These are possible interpretations discussed by market commentators, not predictions of how markets will actually move on the day.
Why does this release matter right now?
Housing has remained one of the most interest-rate-sensitive parts of the US economy through 2026, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates staying well above the historic lows seen earlier in the decade. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor housing data closely as part of its broader assessment of financial conditions and the labour market, since construction, real estate services and related retail spending make up a meaningful share of US economic activity. A run of weak existing home sales prints earlier in the year has kept the sector under scrutiny, and any further deterioration or improvement in November’s figures will feed into the debate over the path of interest rates into 2027.
Globally, the release also matters because US mortgage and housing trends often mirror pressures seen in the UK and euro area, where central banks have likewise grappled with the effect of higher rates on property markets. A weaker-than-expected US reading can reinforce expectations that major central banks, including the Bank of England and European Central Bank, may need to stay cautious about how quickly they ease policy.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and rates: A stronger-than-expected sales figure can nudge US Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher if it suggests the economy remains resilient, while a weak print can support the case for lower rates over time, indirectly affecting mortgage pricing in the UK and eurozone through global bond market linkages.
Savings: Changes in the interest rate outlook driven by housing data can influence what savings accounts and fixed-term deposits pay, since banks price savings products off the same rate expectations that move mortgage costs.
Jobs and wages: A healthy housing market supports employment in real estate, construction, home improvement and retail, so a sustained slowdown in sales can eventually show up in slower job growth in these sectors.
Prices: Median home price trends reported alongside the sales figure give a read on housing costs, one of the larger components of household budgets and inflation measures in the US.
Investments, pensions and currencies: Housing-linked stocks such as homebuilders and real estate investment trusts often react directly to the release, and shifts in US rate expectations can move the dollar against the pound and euro, affecting the value of overseas investments and pension holdings with US exposure.

Related events

Previous release: US Existing Home Sales, November 2026 data
US New Home Sales, the companion report covering newly built housing
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which shape mortgage rates and housing demand

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November existing home sales report released?
The National Association of Realtors publishes the data at 10:00 am ET, which is 3:00 pm in London, on December 9, 2026.
How should I read the existing home sales figure?
Look at the seasonally adjusted annual rate against the prior month and against the consensus forecast, and check the accompanying median price and months of supply for a fuller picture of market conditions.
How does this data affect interest rates?
The Federal Reserve considers housing market strength as part of its broader assessment of the economy, so persistently weak or strong readings can feed into expectations for future rate decisions, though housing data alone rarely drives policy on its own.
Where can I find the official release?
The National Association of Realtors publishes the full report, including regional breakdowns and price data, on its own website at the scheduled release time.
When is the next existing home sales report?
The NAR typically publishes existing home sales data around the 20th to 25th of the month for two months prior, though the November data covered here follows an adjusted December publication date; check the NAR calendar for the exact date of the following release.
← Previous US Existing Home Sales

ADBE Earnings December 2026
2026-12-09 12:00 - 13:00 (America/New_York)
Next ADBE Quarterly Earnings: Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Q3 FY2025: EPS $5.31 vs $5.18 forecast, revenue $5.99bn vs $5.91bn forecast
Actual
Pending

Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous ADBE Quarterly Earnings
Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) is expected to report its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results on December 9, 2026, with the earnings call scheduled for approximately 12:00pm ET (5:00pm London). The report will be one of the last major software earnings of the calendar year and will close out Adobe’s fiscal 2026, giving investors a full-year picture of how the company’s Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Digital Experience businesses performed, particularly the pace at which artificial intelligence features are converting into paid subscriptions. Full schedule and background: Adobe earnings dates.
Adobe has not yet confirmed this date. The company has historically reported its fiscal fourth-quarter results in mid-December, so December 9, 2026 is an estimate based on that pattern rather than a confirmed corporate announcement.
What is Adobe’s Q4 2026 earnings report?
This is Adobe’s quarterly results announcement covering its fiscal fourth quarter (roughly September to November 2026) and its full fiscal year 2026. Adobe’s finance team, led by the chief financial officer, releases the figures via press release before the market opens, followed by a live conference call with the chief executive, chief financial officer and other senior executives who take questions from analysts at major banks and research firms. The release covers total revenue, earnings per share (EPS), performance across Adobe’s three main segments (Digital Media, Digital Experience and Publishing), and guidance for the following fiscal year.
Markets pay close attention to this particular release because it is the first full-year read on how Adobe’s generative AI tools, including Firefly and AI features built into Creative Cloud and Acrobat, are contributing to subscription growth and average revenue per user, rather than just being a marketing talking point.
When is Adobe’s earnings report and how to follow it
Adobe typically issues its results after the US market closes or before it opens, depending on the quarter, with the earnings call beginning shortly afterwards. For this event, the call is pencilled in for 12:00pm ET, which is 5:00pm in London and later in the evening for continental Europe. Investors in Asia would need to check the announcement the following morning local time. The release and a live audio webcast are normally made available on Adobe’s investor relations website, with a transcript published within a day or two by financial news outlets. As above, this date is estimated and should be treated as provisional until Adobe’s investor relations team confirms it, typically a few weeks beforehand.
What to expect
Because this event is more than a year away from today’s date, no consensus forecast for EPS or revenue has yet been published by analysts. Wall Street estimates for a specific quarter typically firm up only in the weeks before the report, once analysts have updated their models following the prior quarter’s results and any interim guidance from Adobe. When estimates are published, they usually appear on financial data platforms and are compiled into consensus figures by services such as LSEG or FactSet, cited by outlets including Reuters and Bloomberg.
For context, in its fiscal third quarter of 2025, Adobe reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.31 against an average analyst forecast of $5.18, with revenue of $5.99 billion versus an expected $5.91 billion, according to a transcript summary published by Investing.com. Adobe also raised its full-year fiscal 2025 revenue target to between $23.65 billion and $23.70 billion at that time. Analysts watching the December 2026 report are likely to focus on the same themes: growth in Digital Media annualised recurring revenue, adoption of AI-powered features, competitive pressure from rivals in generative image and video tools, and the trajectory of Digital Experience, Adobe’s marketing software business.
What the outcome could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Beat
Shares could rise if EPS and revenue exceed the eventual consensus and guidance for fiscal 2027 is upgraded
Adobe’s AI investments and subscription growth are converting into stronger-than-expected profit

In line
Limited share price reaction, with attention shifting to management’s forward commentary on AI monetisation
Adobe delivered what was already priced in, so the story becomes what happens next

Miss
Shares could fall, particularly if guidance for the new fiscal year is cut or AI-related spending weighs on margins
Growth or profitability came in weaker than analysts hoped, raising questions about competitive pressure

What It Means for Your Money
Adobe is a large constituent of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, so its shares are held, often unknowingly, inside many workplace pensions, individual savings accounts (ISAs) and index tracker funds used by ordinary savers in the UK, Europe and further afield. A significant move in Adobe’s share price after this report can nudge the value of technology-focused funds up or down, though the effect on a diversified pension pot is usually small. For creative professionals and businesses that pay monthly for Adobe’s Creative Cloud or Acrobat subscriptions, the earnings call sometimes hints at future pricing changes or new AI features bundled into existing plans. The report itself does not move mortgage rates, savings rates or the value of the pound, dollar or euro directly, but it does add to the broader mood around US technology earnings, which can influence investor sentiment and stock market volatility during December, a period when many funds are also managing year-end positioning.
Related events

Adobe’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings report, the previous quarterly release from the company
US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which shape the broader environment for technology stock valuations
Other major software earnings reported around the same December window, including peers in cloud and enterprise software

Frequently Asked Questions
Is the December 9, 2026 date for Adobe’s earnings confirmed?
No, it is an estimate based on Adobe’s usual pattern of reporting fiscal fourth-quarter results in mid-December. Adobe typically confirms the exact date a few weeks in advance.
What time does Adobe usually hold its earnings call?
Adobe’s earnings calls are generally scheduled for the early afternoon US Eastern Time, which falls in the late afternoon or early evening in London.
Where can I watch Adobe’s earnings call?
Adobe normally streams a live audio webcast of the call on its investor relations website, with a replay and transcript typically available afterwards.
Has a consensus forecast been published for this report?
Not yet. A consensus forecast has not yet been published because the event is far in advance; analyst estimates typically firm up closer to the reporting date.
Why does Adobe’s earnings report matter to non-US investors?
Adobe is a widely held stock in global index funds and technology-focused portfolios, so a large earnings surprise can affect the value of pensions and investment funds held by savers outside the United States.
← Previous ADBE Quarterly Earnings

FOMC Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-09 14:00 - 15:00 (America/New_York)
Next FOMC Rate Decision: Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 pm ET (7:00 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: FOMC Rate Decision.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous FOMC Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its final interest rate decision of 2026 on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. EDT, following a two-day meeting on December 8-9. This is a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) meeting, at which FOMC members will publish updated quarterly forecasts and the closely watched “dot plot” of individual rate expectations. The December meeting represents the committee’s last opportunity in 2026 to adjust the federal funds rate target, and markets will focus on both the rate decision itself and the updated economic projections for 2027 and beyond. The federal funds rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75%, where it has been held following three rate cuts in the second half of 2025.
The Federal Reserve and the FOMC
The Federal Open Market Committee is the monetary policy-making body of the Federal Reserve (the Fed), the central bank of the United States. The FOMC meets eight times per year in Washington DC, with each meeting lasting one or two days. The committee consists of 12 voting members: the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents who rotate voting rights annually.
The Fed operates under a dual mandate established by Congress: maximum employment and price stability, with price stability defined as headline PCE inflation of 2% over the longer run. When the FOMC sets the federal funds rate, it directly influences short-term borrowing costs across the entire US economy, flowing through to mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, consumer credit, and exchange rates. The December 2026 meeting is particularly significant because it concludes the committee’s work for the year and establishes the rate outlook through its updated SEP and dot plot, which will guide market expectations into 2027.
FOMC December Meeting: December 8-9, 2026
The December 2026 meeting is one of four SEP meetings in the year (alongside March, June, and September), at which FOMC members publish quarterly forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and the federal funds rate. The dot plot, which shows each member’s year-end rate expectation for the next three years and the longer run, is the primary tool through which the committee communicates its collective thinking on the rate path.
The March 2026 SEP, the most recent set of projections available at the time of writing, showed committee members expecting just one rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027, before the federal funds rate converges towards a longer-run neutral rate of approximately 3%. Against this backdrop, the key question for December 2026 is whether the full-year data has shifted those projections. The combination of elevated headline inflation (driven by energy prices following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East), above-trend employment growth in early 2026, and below-trend GDP growth presents a complex policy environment. The decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EDT on December 9, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference beginning at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
What to Expect
The most likely outcome at the December 2026 meeting, based on the FOMC’s stated data-dependent posture and the March 2026 dot plot projections, is a hold at the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. The Fed has held rates through multiple consecutive meetings in 2026, citing elevated inflation and a resilient labour market as arguments against premature easing. However, if core PCE inflation has moderated consistently through the second half of 2026, and if GDP growth has slowed to a pace that raises concerns about economic momentum, the December SEP could reveal a shift in committee thinking towards more cuts in 2027.
Governor Miran’s dissent at the April 2026 meeting, calling for a 25-basis-point cut, represented the dovish extreme of the committee. Meanwhile, hawkish members dissenting in favour of stronger forward guidance against cuts have pushed the other end. The December meeting will reveal where this internal debate has resolved over the course of 2026. If the committee delivers a cut at any earlier meeting (June, July, September, or October), December could either follow with a second cut or revert to a hold.
Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Rate (Upper)
Vote

Sep 2025
-25bp
4.25%
n/v

Nov 2025
-25bp
4.00%
n/v

Dec 2025
-25bp
3.75%
9-3

Jan 2026
Hold
3.75%
n/v

Mar 2026
Hold
3.75%
n/v

Apr 2026
Hold
3.75%
8-4

Jun 2026
TBD (Jun 16-17)
TBD
TBD

Jul 2026
TBD (Jul 28-29)
TBD
TBD

Sources: Federal Reserve; CNBC; J.P. Morgan. “n/v” = vote not yet verified from official sources. Upper rate refers to the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Rates shown at 3.75% upper bound reflect the hold from December 2025 onwards.
Market Impact Scenarios

Hold (base case) – Maintaining the 3.50% to 3.75% range would be interpreted as cautious, data-dependent policy continuation. Markets will focus primarily on the updated dot plot for 2027 expectations. If the dot plot shifts towards more cuts in 2027, Treasury yields would fall modestly and equities would rally. If the dot plot holds or moves hawkish, bond yields would remain elevated, and equities would face pressure heading into year-end.
Cut (25bp) – A December rate cut to 3.25%-3.50% would signal the Fed has gained enough confidence in the inflation outlook to resume easing. This outcome would be positive for equities and bonds, negative for the dollar, and would likely be accompanied by a dovish dot plot. The size of the year-end equity rally would depend on whether the cut was already priced in by December.
Hike – A rate increase from the current range would represent a dramatic policy reversal and is not the base case. A hike would be strongly negative for equities, particularly for the most rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, utilities, high-growth technology), and would strengthen the dollar while pushing bond yields higher across all maturities.

Press Conference and Forward Guidance
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT on December 9 will be scrutinised for signals about the 2027 rate path. After the dot plot, Powell’s characterisation of inflation progress and the growth outlook will drive market reaction. Key phrases to watch include whether the Fed describes inflation as “still elevated” versus “making progress toward 2%”, and whether Powell signals that the committee sees further cuts as appropriate or that it will remain on hold for an extended period.
The December SEP will also update projections for PCE inflation, core PCE, GDP growth, and unemployment through 2028. Revisions to these projections, particularly whether the committee now sees inflation returning to 2% in 2027 or later, will shape the market’s interpretation of the dot plot and inform investment positioning into the new year. The December meeting traditionally attracts higher media and market attention than non-SEP meetings.
Related Events

FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The June 16-17 SEP meeting is the next FOMC rate decision after the current date, providing the first updated dot plot ahead of December.
US CPI Report June 2026 – Inflation data from June and subsequent months will be the primary determinant of whether the Fed has scope to cut in December 2026.
ECB Rate Decision June 2026 – The ECB’s June 11 decision illustrates the broader global monetary policy environment against which the Fed’s December decision will be assessed.

Frequently Asked Questions
What is the FOMC’s dual mandate?
The Federal Open Market Committee operates under a congressional mandate to pursue maximum employment and price stability. In practice, the Fed targets headline PCE inflation of 2% over the longer run and aims to maintain the unemployment rate near its longer-run neutral level, which the March 2026 SEP estimated at approximately 4.1%.
When will the FOMC December 2026 decision be announced?
The FOMC will release its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, December 9, 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will begin at 2:30 p.m. EDT. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including the dot plot, will be released simultaneously with the policy statement.
What does the dot plot show?
The dot plot is a chart published at each SEP meeting showing each FOMC member’s expectation for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate at year-end for the next three years and in the longer run. It is anonymous and shows the distribution of views across the committee, not a binding forecast. Markets use the median dot to infer the committee’s collective rate path, but it can shift significantly between meetings as economic conditions change.

SNB Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-10 03:30 - 04:30 (America/New_York)
Next SNB Rate Decision: Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 9:30 am CET (3:30 am ET, 8:30 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Held at 0% (since June 2025, most recently September 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: SNB Rate Decision.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous SNB Rate Decision
The Swiss National Bank’s Governing Board announces its final monetary policy decision of 2026 on Thursday, December 10, 2026, at 3:30am ET (9:30am CET local time in Zurich, 8:30am London time). The policy rate has stood at 0% since June 2025, following a long run of cuts from the 1.75% peak reached in 2023. Full schedule and background: SNB Rate Decision.
The SNB does not hold a scheduled interest rate press conference in the way the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank do, but its Governing Board publishes a statement and holds a news conference immediately after each assessment to explain the decision and its updated conditional inflation forecast.
What is the SNB Governing Board and what does it decide?
The Swiss National Bank is Switzerland’s independent central bank. Monetary policy is set collegially by a three-member Governing Board, which does not publish individual vote tallies, unlike the Fed or the Bank of England. The SNB’s mandate is price stability, defined as annual inflation of less than 2%, while taking account of economic developments.
Unusually among major central banks, the SNB also intervenes directly in the foreign exchange market when it judges the Swiss franc, a classic safe-haven currency, to be excessively strong. This gives its decisions an extra dimension: markets watch not only the policy rate itself but also any language on currency intervention.
The Governing Board meets for a formal monetary policy assessment four times a year, in March, June, September and December. Since September 2025 the SNB has also published a summary of the Board’s discussion four weeks after each decision, giving slightly more insight into its reasoning than in the past.
When is the December SNB decision announced?
The December assessment is announced on December 10, 2026, at 3:30am ET, 9:30am CET and 8:30am London time. The announcement includes a written statement, the SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast (covering roughly the following three years), and a news conference with the SNB Chair. A summary of the internal Board discussion typically follows around four weeks later. There are no interest rate dot plots at the SNB, unlike the Fed; the conditional inflation forecast serves a similar signalling role.
What to expect
The SNB has held its policy rate at 0% since returning to zero in June 2025, after a run of cuts that began in March 2024. The most recent scheduled assessments before this one, in March, June and September 2026, all held the rate at 0%, according to Trading Economics and the SNB’s own decision archive. Economists have generally expected the SNB to keep rates on hold through 2026, given the SNB’s own forecasts assumed a steady 0% rate path when they were last updated. A consensus forecast for the December 2026 meeting had not been published by major polling services at the time of writing.

Meeting
Decision
Rate after meeting

December 2025
Held
0%

March 2026
Held
0%

June 2026
Held
0%

September 2026
Held (widely reported)
0%

Market impact scenarios

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Hold at 0%
Broadly expected outcome; muted franc reaction unless language on intervention shifts
Borrowing costs in Switzerland stay unchanged, and the SNB signals it is comfortable with current inflation and growth conditions

Cut (into negative territory)
Would be read as a defensive move against currency strength or weak inflation, likely franc-negative
The SNB judges deflation risk or franc appreciation serious enough to revisit negative rates, a step it has said carries a high bar

Guidance shift on FX intervention
Traders in USD/CHF and EUR/CHF watch closely even without a rate change
The SNB signals it will lean more heavily on buying or selling francs directly, rather than moving the policy rate, to manage currency strength

What will the statement and press conference signal?
Analysts will focus on three things: whether the SNB’s conditional inflation forecast still points to inflation staying within its 0 to 2% price stability range, whether the Board repeats language about the high bar for negative rates, and any comments on Swiss franc strength against the dollar and euro. Because the Governing Board does not publish a vote breakdown, dissent risk is not something markets can measure directly, but changes in the tone of the post-meeting news conference are scrutinised for hints of a shift.
What It Means for Your Money
For anyone with a Swiss mortgage, a hold at 0% keeps SARON-linked and fixed mortgage rates broadly where they have been, since Swiss lenders price largely off the SNB’s policy rate and bond yields. Savers in Swiss franc accounts continue to earn very little interest, a direct consequence of the zero-rate policy. For borrowers and credit card users outside Switzerland, the SNB decision matters less directly, but currency traders and companies with Swiss franc exposure, including UK and eurozone exporters who compete with Swiss goods, watch EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF for signs of franc strength or weakness. A stronger franc can make Swiss exports more expensive and support the value of Swiss pension and investment holdings when converted back into pounds or euros. UK and European investors holding Swiss equities or the SMI index should note that rate holds are typically a smaller market mover than surprise moves, but any hint of renewed negative rates would ripple through European bond and currency markets given the SNB’s role as a bellwether for very low or negative rate policy.
Related events

Previous decision: SNB Rate Decision September 2026
Full SNB schedule and past decisions: SNB Rate Decision hub
Swiss inflation data released ahead of each assessment is a key input the Governing Board weighs before deciding on the rate

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the SNB December 2026 decision announced?
The decision is announced at 3:30am ET, 9:30am CET and 8:30am London time on December 10, 2026.
What is the current SNB policy rate?
The SNB policy rate has stood at 0% since June 2025, after a series of cuts from a peak of 1.75%.
Will the SNB cut rates into negative territory?
The SNB’s leadership has repeatedly said the bar for returning to negative rates is high, and its own conditional inflation forecasts have assumed a steady 0% rate path, though this is not a guarantee and depends on incoming inflation and franc strength data.
When is the next SNB meeting after December 2026?
The SNB holds quarterly assessments, so the next scheduled meeting falls in March 2027; check the SNB Rate Decision hub for the confirmed date once published.
Where can I watch the SNB announcement live?
The SNB publishes its statement and streams the post-decision news conference on its official website, snb.ch.
← Previous SNB Rate Decision

US CPI Report December 2026
2026-12-10 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US CPI Report: Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US CPI Report.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US CPI Report
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November 2026 on Thursday, December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The release will provide the penultimate inflation reading of 2026, arriving the day after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivers its final rate decision of the year on December 9, 2026.

At a Glance

Release date: Thursday, December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET
Publishing body: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Reference month: November 2026
Most recent reading: 3.8% YoY (April 2026)
Market impact: High

What is the Consumer Price Index?
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is the most widely followed measure of inflation in the United States. Published monthly by the BLS, it tracks changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services covering approximately 93% of the US population. The basket includes categories such as housing, food, transport, energy, medical care, apparel, and recreation, with housing carrying the largest weighting at around 32%.
The BLS collects price data from tens of thousands of retail and service establishments. The index is expressed as the year-over-year (YoY) rate and the month-over-month (MoM) change. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is the metric most closely watched by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) for underlying inflation trends.
CPI is released roughly 12 to 13 days after the reference month ends. The December 2026 release covers price changes in November 2026 and will contribute to the full-year inflation picture for 2026.
US CPI Release: December 10, 2026
The December 10 release will provide the November 2026 inflation reading, arriving one day after the FOMC meets on December 9. While the data will not influence the December rate decision directly (the Fed will already have made its call), it will immediately shape market expectations for the path of monetary policy in 2027. Strong inflationary persistence would push back the anticipated timeline for rate cuts; a confirmed deceleration would accelerate them.
US inflation started 2026 at 2.4% year-over-year in January before surging to 3.8% in April, the highest rate since May 2023, according to BLS data. The energy component rose 17.9% year-over-year in April, with gasoline prices up 28.4%. The December reading will reveal whether those energy-driven price rises have faded through favourable base effects or have entrenched into broader price pressures. Consensus forecasts will be available closer to the release date.
Why This CPI Release Matters
The December CPI is the last major inflation data point of 2026 and will set the inflation narrative going into 2027. It follows the FOMC decision by just one day, meaning the December 10 release will immediately begin shaping expectations for the January and March 2027 meetings. If the Fed cuts in December, a hot November CPI reading could cause markets to question whether that cut was premature. If the Fed holds, a cool reading would reinforce expectations for early 2027 easing.
At the same time, the December reading will set the base for year-over-year comparisons in early 2027. If November 2026 inflation is significantly lower than November 2025, the year-over-year rate will reflect that mechanically. Understanding the base effect is essential for interpreting the early 2027 inflation prints that follow.
For bond markets, the December release will be crucial in determining where longer-duration yields settle into year-end and the new year. For equities, confirmation that the 2026 inflationary episode is behind us would be a material positive, particularly for rate-sensitive growth stocks that have faced persistent valuation headwinds throughout the year.
What to Watch For

Above consensus: A reading that shows inflation re-accelerating in November (above 3.0-3.5%) would be a negative surprise given that energy base effects should be fading by this point. It would signal structural inflation persistence and push out expectations of rate cuts in 2027, weighing on equities and bonds.
In line with consensus: A reading matching expectations would confirm the trajectory already priced in by markets. Attention would quickly shift to the December FOMC press conference and forward guidance for 2027, particularly the updated Summary of Economic Projections.
Below consensus: A reading below 2.5% would signal that the 2026 inflation surge has been largely unwound and would significantly increase expectations of rate cuts early in 2027. Equities would rally broadly, bond yields would fall, and the US dollar would weaken.

By December, the base effect from the April 2026 energy spike will be highly relevant. If energy prices have normalised or fallen since mid-2026, the November year-over-year comparison will benefit from a mechanically easier base. Core services and shelter inflation will be the genuine gauge of underlying price pressure divorced from energy volatility.
Historical Context

Month
YoY
MoM
Core YoY

April 2026
3.8%
+0.6%
2.8%

March 2026
3.3%
+0.9%
2.6%

February 2026
2.4%
+0.2%
—

January 2026
2.4%
—
—

December 2025
2.7%
—
—

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. October and November 2025 data were not published due to the US government shutdown. MoM and core figures not available for all periods shown.
Market Positioning
The December 2026 CPI will close out the year’s inflation story and establish the baseline for 2027 expectations. Fixed income markets and the Fed funds futures curve will be acutely sensitive to this final reading, given that it arrives the day after the December FOMC decision and in the context of year-end portfolio rebalancing. Liquidity typically thins in mid-December, which can amplify market movements around data releases.
For equity investors looking ahead to 2027, a confirmed downward trend in inflation through the final quarter of 2026 would represent a material improvement in the macro backdrop, reducing the headwind from high interest rates and potentially re-opening the door to multiple expansion in growth sectors.
Related Events

US CPI Report November 2026 – The preceding monthly release covering October 2026 data.
FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 – The Fed’s final meeting of 2026 on December 9, the day before this CPI release.
ECB Rate Decision December 2026 – The ECB’s December meeting on December 17, providing a comparison with European monetary policy as the year closes.

Frequently Asked Questions
What does the CPI measure?
The CPI measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services, including housing, food, transport, energy, and medical care. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it is the primary measure of consumer price inflation in the United States.
When is the December 2026 CPI report released?
The December 2026 CPI report will be released on Thursday, December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report covers price changes during November 2026.
How does the December CPI relate to 2027 monetary policy?
The December 10 release follows the FOMC’s December 9 decision by one day, meaning it will not affect December’s vote but will immediately recalibrate expectations for January and March 2027 meetings. A continued deceleration in inflation would strengthen the case for the Fed to begin or continue cutting rates early in 2027, which would have significant implications for bond yields, equity valuations, and the US dollar.

US Initial Jobless Claims: December 10, 2026
2026-12-10 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
220,000 (week ending Nov 15, 2025)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims
The US Department of Labor releases the weekly initial jobless claims report on Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 8:30am ET (1:30pm London). This release covers new claims for unemployment benefits filed in the week ending December 5, 2026, and is one of the most timely indicators of labour-market health available to investors, policymakers and the Federal Reserve. For the full release schedule and background on this weekly series, see US Initial Jobless Claims.
Initial jobless claims count the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time in a given week. A rising trend suggests employers are cutting jobs faster than they are hiring; a falling trend suggests the labour market is holding up. Because the data are weekly and released quickly, markets watch them closely for early signs of a turn in employment conditions, particularly during periods when the Federal Reserve is weighing interest rate decisions.
What is the consensus forecast?
The prior reading was 220,000 for the week ending November 15, 2025, according to the Department of Labor’s weekly claims release. A consensus forecast for the December 5, 2026 week has not yet been published; economists’ forecasts for weekly claims are typically only released a day or two ahead of the report by outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg. Continuing claims, which measure people still receiving benefits after an initial filing, are also released alongside the headline number and give a sense of how long it is taking people to find new work.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Initial claims
220,000
Not yet published

4-week moving average
Varies by week, published alongside headline figure
Not yet published

Continuing claims
Published alongside initial claims
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Claims above consensus
Bond yields could fall, stocks may wobble on growth worries, though a weaker labour market can also raise hopes of interest rate cuts
More people are losing jobs or struggling to find new ones than expected, a sign the labour market is cooling

Claims in line with consensus
Limited market reaction expected, as the figure confirms the existing trend
The labour market is behaving broadly as expected, with no fresh signal for the Fed or investors

Claims below consensus
Stocks could gain on resilience, though very strong labour data can also push bond yields up on reduced hopes of rate cuts
Fewer people than expected are filing for unemployment benefits, suggesting the labour market remains solid

Why it matters this week
Jobless claims data has taken on extra significance as the Federal Reserve weighs the pace of any further interest rate moves heading into 2027. Weekly claims, together with the monthly non-farm payrolls report, give policymakers an early read on whether earlier rate cuts are cooling the labour market too quickly or whether conditions remain resilient.
According to Trading Economics, weekly claims data through much of 2026 showed periods of resilience even as some public-sector job cuts weighed on specific categories of workers. Investors will be watching whether the December 5 week continues that pattern or shows signs of a broader slowdown, particularly given the seasonal noise that can affect claims data around the holiday period.
What It Means for Your Money
For anyone with a mortgage or savings account, jobless claims feed indirectly into the interest rate outlook. A run of weak claims data, showing more people losing jobs, tends to increase expectations of interest rate cuts, which can eventually lower mortgage rates but also reduce returns on savings accounts and cash ISAs. Strong claims data, showing few job losses, can have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer but supporting better returns on cash savings.
For investors with pensions or portfolios exposed to US shares, a sharply weaker labour market can hurt company profits and share prices in the near term, even if it eventually leads to lower interest rates that support valuations further out. A resilient labour market tends to support consumer spending and corporate earnings, which can benefit pension funds and other investments with exposure to US equities.
The report also has ripple effects beyond the US. Because Federal Reserve policy influences global borrowing costs, shifts in the US labour market outlook can move the value of the pound, the euro and other currencies against the dollar, affecting the cost of imports and holidays abroad for people in the UK and Europe, as well as returns on international investments.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the jobless claims report released?
The report is released at 8:30am ET, which is 1:30pm in London, on Thursday, December 10, 2026.
What would count as a big miss from consensus?
Once a consensus forecast is published, a move of more than around 15,000 to 20,000 claims away from that figure would typically be considered a significant surprise, though markets also pay close attention to the four-week moving average rather than any single week’s number.
When is the next jobless claims report?
The next weekly release follows the standard Thursday schedule; check the US Initial Jobless Claims hub page for the exact date and time of the following report.
Why do jobless claims matter to the Federal Reserve?
Jobless claims offer a near real-time signal of labour-market health, helping the Federal Reserve judge whether its interest rate policy is having the intended effect on employment.

← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims

AVGO Earnings December 2026
2026-12-10 12:00 - 13:00 (America/New_York)
Next AVGO Quarterly Earnings: Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Q2 FY2026: revenue approx. $22.1bn, non-GAAP EPS $2.44 (quarter ended May 3, 2026)
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous AVGO Quarterly Earnings
Broadcom Inc. (Nasdaq: AVGO) is expected to report its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 financial results on Thursday, December 10, 2026, with a call for analysts and investors typically scheduled around 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London). The report is issued by the company through Broadcom Investor Relations. As with most large technology companies, the exact date is confirmed only a few weeks in advance, so treat this as the most likely slot based on Broadcom’s usual pattern of reporting in the second week of December. Full schedule and background: AVGO earnings calendar.
The release matters well beyond Broadcom shareholders. The company is one of the largest suppliers of custom AI chips and networking equipment to hyperscale cloud providers, and its infrastructure software division (built around the VMware acquisition) generates steady recurring revenue. Because Broadcom sits at the intersection of AI infrastructure spending and enterprise software, its results are often read as a proxy for how much big technology companies are still willing to spend on data centres and cloud capacity.
What is the Broadcom Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call?
This is Broadcom’s fourth and final quarterly earnings report of its fiscal year 2026, which runs from November 2025 to roughly the end of October or early November 2026. Management, led by chief executive Hock Tan and chief financial officer Kirsten Spears, presents revenue, profit, cash flow and dividend figures for the quarter and the full fiscal year, then gives guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Analysts covering the semiconductor and software sectors, along with institutional investors, dial into the call to question management on AI chip demand, custom silicon contracts with hyperscalers, and the performance of the VMware software business.
When is the AVGO Q4 2026 report and how to follow it
Based on Broadcom’s recent reporting pattern, the release is expected on December 10, 2026, with the press release published before US markets open or shortly after, followed by a conference call around midday ET. Broadcom has not yet confirmed this specific date at the time of writing; the company typically announces its December earnings date about three to four weeks beforehand. The results, along with a live webcast and replay, are published on the Broadcom Investor Relations website. Financial media and data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically carry the headline figures within minutes of release.
What to expect
A consensus forecast for AVGO’s fiscal Q4 2026 revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) has not yet been published this far ahead of the report. Analyst estimates typically firm up in the weeks before the call as Wall Street updates models following peer earnings and any pre-announcements. Investors should watch three things when the numbers land: growth in AI semiconductor revenue (chips designed for specific hyperscale customers), the pace of infrastructure software revenue tied to VMware, and any change to operating margin guidance, since Broadcom has guided non-GAAP operating margin and adjusted EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, a measure of underlying profitability) at similar levels for several quarters.
Recent quarters give a sense of the trend. In its first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended February 1, 2026), Broadcom reported revenue of $19,311 million, up 29% year on year, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.05, according to the company’s investor relations release. In its second quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended May 3, 2026), revenue rose further and adjusted EBITDA reached $15,244 million, with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.44, also per the company’s own results release. Guidance issued alongside that report pointed to third quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of approximately $29.4 billion, an increase of 84% from the prior year period, reflecting a large step-up expected from AI-related demand.

Quarter
Revenue
Non-GAAP EPS
Notes

Q1 FY2026 (ended Feb 1, 2026)
$19,311 million
$2.05
Up 29% year on year

Q2 FY2026 (ended May 3, 2026)
Approx. $22.1 billion
$2.44
Adjusted EBITDA of $15,244 million, 69% of revenue

Q3 FY2026 (guided)
Approx. $29.4 billion guided
Not yet reported at time of writing
Guidance issued with Q2 results

Q4 FY2026 (this report)
To be reported December 10, 2026
To be reported
Consensus not yet published

What the outcome could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Beat on revenue and EPS with strong AI backlog commentary
Shares likely to rise, semiconductor peers may follow
Demand for AI chips and cloud infrastructure is still accelerating, supporting confidence in tech capital spending

Results in line with prior guidance
Muted share reaction, focus shifts to next quarter’s guidance
Broadcom’s growth is proceeding as expected, with no major surprise for the AI spending cycle

Miss on revenue, software growth or margin guidance cut
Shares likely to fall, could weigh on broader semiconductor and AI-linked stocks
A warning sign that hyperscale customers may be slowing AI infrastructure spending or that VMware integration costs are higher than expected

What It Means for Your Money
Broadcom is one of the largest constituents of major US stock indices, so it is widely held inside pension funds, workplace retirement schemes and passive index funds even by people who have never bought an individual share. A large swing in AVGO shares on the day of results can move the value of a diversified pension pot or ISA that tracks a broad US or global index. A strong report tends to lift sentiment across chipmakers and AI-linked stocks in Asia (such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company suppliers) and Europe (such as ASML), while a weak one can drag on the same names. For everyday consumers, Broadcom’s results say more about business investment trends than about the price of phones or broadband directly, though the company does supply chips used in smartphones and networking gear. Currency moves are usually a secondary effect: a strong US earnings season can support the dollar against the pound and euro if it reinforces expectations that the US economy and corporate profits remain resilient.
Related events

AVGO earnings, September 2026 (Q3 fiscal 2026)
Other major AI-linked semiconductor earnings released in the same week
US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which shape the discount rate applied to growth stocks like Broadcom

Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Broadcom report Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings?
The report is expected around 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London) on December 10, 2026, based on Broadcom’s usual reporting pattern, though the company has not yet confirmed the exact time.
Is the December 10, 2026 date confirmed?
No. Broadcom typically announces its fourth-quarter fiscal earnings date a few weeks in advance, and it has historically reported in the second week of December.
What is the consensus forecast for AVGO’s Q4 fiscal 2026 results?
A consensus forecast has not yet been published this far ahead of the report. Analyst estimates will firm up closer to the release date.
Why does Broadcom’s earnings report matter to markets outside the US?
Broadcom supplies chips and networking equipment used across global supply chains, so its results influence sentiment toward semiconductor and technology stocks in Asia and Europe, and it is a large weighting in global index funds held by pension savers worldwide.
Where can I watch the earnings call live?
The webcast and replay are published on the Broadcom Investor Relations website alongside the press release.
← Previous AVGO Quarterly Earnings

COST Earnings December 2026
2026-12-10 12:00 - 13:00 (America/New_York)
Next COST Quarterly Earnings: Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
$4.50 EPS, $67.31bn revenue (Q1 FY2026, quarter ended Nov 2025), beat $4.28 estimate
Actual
Pending

Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous COST Quarterly Earnings
Costco Wholesale Corporation is expected to report its next quarterly earnings on December 10, 2026, at approximately 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London). Costco has not yet confirmed this exact date; the retailer typically reports its first-quarter results in the second week of December, so the date and time here are an estimate based on that pattern. The report matters to markets because Costco is a bellwether for US consumer spending, membership retail and warehouse club economics, and its results are watched closely by investors in retail, consumer staples and broader index funds. Full schedule and background: COST earnings calendar.
What is the Costco Q1 earnings report?
This release covers Costco’s first fiscal quarter, running from roughly September through November 2026 (Costco’s fiscal year runs from September to August, so its “Q1” differs from the calendar year). Costco’s finance team, led by the chief financial officer, presents net sales, membership fee income, gross margin and earnings per share (EPS) on a conference call with analysts. The company does not typically hold a live public webcast with slides in the way some other retailers do; instead it issues a press release and holds an analyst call, with a transcript published afterwards.
Analysts and investors focus on comparable sales (like-for-like sales excluding new store openings), membership renewal rates, and e-commerce growth, since these figures reveal whether Costco’s model of charging an annual membership fee in exchange for low prices is still drawing in new, loyal shoppers.
When is the Costco December 2026 earnings report and how to follow it
Costco has not formally confirmed the date shown above. Retailers such as Costco typically report first-quarter results in the second full week of December, roughly ten weeks after the quarter closes at the end of November. The company usually issues its results before US markets open or around midday, followed by an earnings call. Investors can follow the release directly through Costco’s investor relations website, where the press release, financial statements and call transcript are usually posted within minutes of the announcement.
What to expect
A widely published consensus forecast for the December 2026 quarter has not yet been issued this far in advance. Once analyst estimates begin to firm up closer to the report date, they typically appear on financial data platforms such as Bloomberg, LSEG and Visible Alpha.
Historically, analysts watching Costco’s results focus on: comparable sales growth (particularly in the US, Canada and international markets), membership fee income and renewal rates, gross margin trends amid tariff and freight cost pressures, and e-commerce sales growth. Guidance risk tends to centre on labour costs, membership fee increases, and how much of any cost inflation Costco is willing to absorb rather than pass on to shoppers, given its strategy of keeping prices low to protect membership loyalty.
The most recent confirmed quarterly result available is Costco’s first quarter of fiscal 2026 (the quarter ended in late November 2025), when the company reported revenue of $67.31 billion against analyst estimates of around $67.03 billion, and GAAP earnings per share of $4.50 against an estimate of roughly $4.28, according to a Yahoo Finance report on the results. For the prior fiscal year, Costco’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 net sales rose 8.0% to $84.4 billion, according to Costco’s own investor relations release.

Quarter
Revenue
EPS
vs estimate

Q4 FY2025 (ended Aug 2025)
$84.4 billion (full quarter net sales)
Not separately confirmed
Not verified

Q1 FY2026 (ended Nov 2025)
$67.31 billion
$4.50 (GAAP)
Beat estimate of $4.28

Figures for the two most recent quarters before this were not fully verifiable from public sources at the time of writing and have been omitted rather than estimated.
What the outcome could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Beat
Shares could rise if revenue and EPS top analyst estimates and comparable sales stay strong
Costco is selling more to existing members and controlling costs better than expected

In line
Muted share reaction; focus shifts to guidance and membership trends
Costco performed roughly as forecast, so the story is in the details, not the headline numbers

Miss
Shares could fall, especially if margins or comparable sales disappoint
Cost pressures or weaker shopper spending are squeezing profits more than expected

What It Means for Your Money
Costco is one of the largest constituents of major US indices, so its results feed into the value of pensions and index funds that track the S&P 500 or Nasdaq, even for savers who have never bought a Costco share directly. A strong report can lift broader consumer staples and retail sector funds, while a weak one can drag on them. For everyday shoppers, Costco’s commentary on pricing and cost inflation can be an early signal of whether grocery and household goods prices are likely to rise or hold steady in the months ahead, in the US and, to a lesser extent, in the UK, Canada and other markets where Costco operates warehouses. The report has limited direct effect on the pound, euro or mortgage rates, but it forms part of the broader picture of US consumer health that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, weigh when setting interest rates that ultimately influence savings and borrowing costs worldwide.
Related events

Costco’s fiscal Q4 2026 earnings release, typically reported in late September 2026
US retail sales data, published monthly by the US Census Bureau
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which influence US consumer borrowing and spending

Frequently Asked Questions
When will Costco report December 2026 earnings?
The date and time above are estimated based on Costco’s usual pattern of reporting first-quarter results in the second week of December; the company has not yet confirmed the exact date.
Is there a consensus forecast for this Costco earnings report?
A consensus forecast has not yet been published this far ahead of the report; analyst estimates typically firm up closer to the release date.
What was Costco’s most recent quarterly result?
In its most recently confirmed quarter, ended in late November 2025, Costco reported revenue of $67.31 billion and GAAP earnings per share of $4.50, beating the analyst estimate of $4.28, according to Yahoo Finance.
Does Costco’s earnings report affect stock markets outside the US?
Yes, because Costco is a large index constituent and a US consumer bellwether, its results can influence sentiment toward global retail and consumer staples shares, including those held in UK and European pension and index funds.
Where can I watch or read the Costco earnings release live?
Costco publishes its results and call details on its official investor relations website, where the press release and transcript are typically posted shortly after the announcement.
← Previous COST Quarterly Earnings

ORCL Earnings December 2026
2026-12-10 12:00 - 13:00 (America/New_York)
Next ORCL Quarterly Earnings: Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 12:00 pm ET (5:00 pm London).
Date to be confirmed by the publisher; this is the scheduled date.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Q1 FY2027 (Sept 2026), not yet confirmed; last reported EPS was $1.964 vs $2.11 expected (Q4 FY2026)
Actual
Pending

Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous ORCL Quarterly Earnings
Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) is expected to report its fiscal second-quarter 2027 earnings on December 10, 2026, after the US market close, with the earnings call historically starting around 12:00pm ET (5:00pm London). Oracle has not yet confirmed this date publicly, but the company has scheduled its Q2 results announcement for the same week in mid-December in each of the past two years, most recently on December 10, 2025. Full schedule and background on the series: ORCL Earnings September 2026.
The report matters to a wide range of investors because Oracle has become one of the largest suppliers of cloud infrastructure capacity to the artificial intelligence boom, with contracts tied to major AI developers. Its results are watched as a signal for the health of AI infrastructure spending, which also affects Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and other technology names held in most global index funds and pension portfolios.
What is Oracle’s Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings report?
Oracle’s fiscal year runs from June to May, so its second fiscal quarter covers September to November 2026. The earnings release, typically issued through PRNewswire and posted to Oracle’s investor relations site, sets out revenue, profit, cloud growth and remaining performance obligations (RPO), a measure of contracted future revenue that has become central to how investors judge Oracle’s AI cloud backlog. Management, usually chief executive Safra Catz and chairman Larry Ellison, then hosts a conference call with analysts to discuss the numbers and give guidance for the following quarter.
Oracle’s shift from a traditional database and enterprise software company to a major cloud infrastructure provider has been one of the more closely watched corporate transformations in technology over the past two years. The company has signed multi-year cloud capacity agreements with several of the largest AI developers, and these deals show up in Oracle’s accounts as remaining performance obligations rather than immediate revenue, which is why analysts pay close attention to that figure alongside the headline sales and profit numbers. A jump in RPO can signal fresh multi-billion-dollar contracts, while a slowdown can suggest AI infrastructure demand is cooling or that customers are delaying commitments.
When is Oracle’s earnings call and how to follow it
Because the publisher has not yet confirmed the December 2026 date, this page follows Oracle’s established pattern: the company usually announces its Q2 results on a Wednesday in the second week of December, after the market closes, with the call beginning roughly 30 minutes to an hour later. Oracle streams the call live on its investor relations website, and a transcript and slide deck are usually posted shortly afterwards. Financial news services including Reuters and Bloomberg carry the headline figures within minutes of release.
What to expect
A consensus forecast for Oracle’s fiscal Q2 2027 earnings per share and revenue has not yet been published, as analyst estimates for a quarter this far ahead typically firm up only in the weeks before the report. What is known is Oracle’s own guidance: at its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, the company confirmed full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of around $90 billion and raised its non-GAAP earnings-per-share guidance to $8.05, implying growth of about 18% after adjusting for one-off items, according to Oracle’s investor relations release.
Analysts are likely to focus on three areas: growth in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue, the pace of change in remaining performance obligations, which have swung sharply on large AI capacity deals, and the cost of the debt Oracle has taken on to fund data centre construction. Any sign that AI infrastructure demand is slowing, or that financing costs are eating into margins, tends to move the shares sharply in after-hours trading.

Quarter
Revenue
EPS
vs estimate

Q1 FY2026 (Sept 2025)
$14.9bn
Not separately confirmed here
See Oracle investor relations release

Q4 FY2026 (May 2026)
Guidance-linked, full detail on investor relations site
$1.964 actual
Below the $2.11 expected, according to TipRanks

Full historical detail, including the quarters immediately before this report, is best verified directly on Oracle’s investor relations site, since not every recent quarter’s exact revenue and EPS split was available at the time this page was written.
What the outcome could mean
Because Oracle has taken on significant new debt to fund data centre construction, bond investors and credit rating agencies are also watching this report closely, alongside equity analysts. A downgrade risk or a widening of Oracle’s credit spreads could ripple into borrowing costs for other companies expanding AI infrastructure, which is one reason this single earnings report attracts attention well beyond the technology sector.

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Beat
Shares could rise, particularly if cloud infrastructure revenue and RPO growth exceed guidance
Oracle is signing and delivering on more AI computing contracts than expected

In line
Muted reaction, with attention shifting to forward guidance and debt commentary
Oracle is growing broadly as planned, with no fresh surprises for AI spending trends

Miss
Shares could fall, especially if margins are squeezed by data centre financing costs
The cost of building AI infrastructure capacity is growing faster than the revenue it generates

What It Means for Your Money
Oracle is a large constituent of major US indices, so its share price swings affect the value of pension funds and index-tracker investments held by ordinary savers, even those who have never bought Oracle shares directly. A strong report tends to lift sentiment across AI-linked technology stocks in the US, Europe and Asia, since Oracle’s cloud customers and suppliers span all three regions. A weak report, particularly one flagging debt or margin pressure, can weigh on broader technology valuations and, in turn, on the dollar, given how heavily US markets are weighted toward technology earnings. There is no direct link to UK mortgage rates or savings accounts, but sharp moves in US tech shares can spill over into wider stock market sentiment, including pension pots invested in global equity funds.
Related events

ORCL Earnings September 2026, Oracle’s fiscal Q1 2027 results
US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which influence technology and growth stock valuations
Earnings from other major AI infrastructure providers, including Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia

Frequently Asked Questions
When exactly does Oracle report Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings?
Oracle has not yet confirmed the date. Based on its pattern in recent years, a report around December 10, 2026, after market close, is the most likely timing.
What time is the earnings call?
Oracle’s calls typically begin around 12:00pm ET (5:00pm London), shortly after the earnings release.
Is there a consensus forecast yet?
A consensus forecast for this specific quarter has not yet been published. Estimates usually solidify in the weeks before the report.
Where can I watch the earnings call live?
Oracle streams its earnings call on its investor relations website, where a replay and transcript are usually posted afterwards.
Why does Oracle’s earnings report matter beyond its own shareholders?
Oracle is a major supplier of AI cloud infrastructure, so its results are widely read as a gauge of how much big technology firms are spending on AI computing capacity.
← Previous ORCL Quarterly Earnings

UK GDP December 2026
2026-12-11 02:00 - 03:00 (America/New_York)
Next UK GDP: Friday, December 11, 2026 at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London). Covers Q3 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
0.4% growth (three months to June 2026, ONS)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: UK GDP.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous UK GDP
The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for December 2026 is released on Friday, December 11, 2026 at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET) by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This release covers economic output data for the third quarter of 2026 (July to September), the ONS’s main measure of how fast, or slowly, the UK economy is growing. Full background and the schedule of upcoming releases is available on the UK GDP hub page.
What is UK GDP?
Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK economy over a given period. It is the broadest single gauge of economic health available and the figure most often quoted when politicians, economists or journalists talk about the economy “growing” or “shrinking”.
The ONS builds GDP from three angles that should, in theory, add up to the same total: output (what businesses and public services actually produced), expenditure (what households, businesses, government and overseas buyers spent) and income (wages, profits and other earnings generated). The headline growth rate compares output in the latest period with the period before, either quarter on quarter or, in the monthly release, on a rolling three-month basis.
Markets watch GDP closely because it feeds directly into decisions at the Bank of England. Faster growth, especially alongside strong wage growth, can add to inflation pressure and argue for holding or raising interest rates. Weaker growth, particularly if it slips towards contraction, increases pressure for rate cuts to support jobs and spending. Two consecutive quarters of falling output is the common definition of a recession.
When is the Q3 2026 GDP report released?
The ONS publishes this release on December 11, 2026 at 7:00am GMT (2:00am ET), on its release calendar and in the Quarterly National Accounts and GDP monthly estimate bulletins on ons.gov.uk. As with all ONS statistics, the exact bulletin and any accompanying data tables go live at the same moment, so there is no early access for market participants.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of now, a consensus forecast has not yet been published for the December 2026 release. City economists and data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically issue their median forecasts only in the days immediately before an ONS release, once more monthly indicators (retail sales, industrial production, trade) for the quarter are available. Financecalendar.com will update this page with the consensus figure and the prior reading once they are confirmed.
The most recent officially confirmed reading from the ONS, at the time of writing, shows real GDP growing by 0.4% in the three months to June 2026, compared with the three months to March 2026, according to the ONS GDP monthly estimate, June 2026. That followed growth of 0.6% in the three months to May 2026 (revised down from 0.7%) and 0.8% in the three months to April 2026.

Measure
Prior reading
Consensus

Quarterly GDP growth
0.4% (three months to June 2026, ONS)
Not yet published

Annual GDP growth
To be confirmed
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Sterling could firm and gilt yields may rise, as stronger growth reduces the case for near-term Bank of England rate cuts, a pattern economists have described in commentary on prior above-forecast GDP prints reported by Reuters
The economy grew faster than expected, which can support jobs and wages but may also keep borrowing costs higher for longer

In line
A broadly neutral reaction is typical when data matches expectations, according to analysts cited in Reuters market wraps around ONS releases
The economy is performing roughly as expected, so mortgage rates, savings rates and the outlook for the pound are unlikely to move sharply on this data alone

Below consensus
Sterling could soften and gilt yields may fall, as weaker growth increases the odds markets attach to future Bank of England rate cuts, a reaction seen in past below-forecast prints per Reuters coverage
The economy grew more slowly than hoped, or shrank, which can eventually feed through to weaker job creation and slower wage growth

These are possible reactions drawn from how markets have historically responded to GDP surprises, not predictions of what will happen on December 11, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee treats GDP as one of the key inputs into its interest rate decisions, alongside inflation and the labour market. Through the first half of 2026, ONS data showed the UK economy expanding for several consecutive rolling three-month periods, with growth of 0.6% in the three months to March 2026 and 0.4% in the three months to June 2026, according to the ONS first quarterly estimate for Q1 2026 and the June 2026 monthly bulletin. Growth had been slowing gradually across that period even as it remained positive.
Investors and policymakers will be watching whether that gentle slowdown continued, stabilised or reversed over July to September 2026. A weaker than expected Q3 reading would add to the debate over how quickly the Bank of England should lower borrowing costs, while a stronger print would support those on the MPC who argue for a more cautious, gradual approach to rate cuts.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and rates: A weak GDP print can raise expectations of Bank of England rate cuts, which sometimes feeds through to lower fixed mortgage rates over the following weeks. A strong print can do the opposite, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer.
Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts tend to move in the same direction as expectations for Bank Rate, so weaker growth data that raises the odds of a rate cut can eventually mean lower returns on cash savings.
Jobs and wages: GDP growth and employment tend to move together over time. A run of weak GDP figures can be an early sign that hiring may slow or wage growth may cool in the following months.
Prices: Faster growth can add to inflation pressure if demand outpaces the economy’s capacity to supply goods and services, while a slowdown can help take some heat out of prices.
Investments, pensions and the pound: UK shares, gilts and sterling can all react to a GDP surprise. A stronger than expected reading often supports the pound against the dollar and the euro, while a weaker reading can weigh on it, with knock-on effects for the value of overseas holdings inside pensions and investment portfolios for UK savers, and for the cost of UK assets to European and Asian investors.

Recent GDP readings (three-month on three-month growth)

Period
Growth rate

Three months to June 2026
0.4%

Three months to May 2026
0.6% (revised)

Three months to April 2026
0.8%

Three months to March 2026
0.6%

Three months to February 2026
0.5%

Three months to January 2026
0.3% (revised)

Source: ONS GDP monthly estimate bulletins, various 2026 releases.
Related events

UK GDP November 2026 release
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decisions, which take GDP trends into account when setting Bank Rate
UK labour market and inflation releases, published in the weeks around each GDP report

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the December 2026 UK GDP report released?
The ONS publishes the report at 7:00am London time on December 11, 2026, which is 2:00am ET.
How do I read the headline GDP figure?
The main number to check is the percentage change in output compared with the previous quarter or rolling three-month period. A positive figure means the economy grew, a negative figure means it shrank.
How does GDP affect UK interest rates?
The Bank of England considers GDP growth alongside inflation and employment when setting Bank Rate. Weak or negative growth can support the case for rate cuts, while strong growth can argue for holding or raising rates.
Where can I find the official GDP release?
The ONS publishes the full bulletin, dataset and revisions on its release calendar at ons.gov.uk at the moment of release.
When is the next UK GDP report after this one?
The ONS publishes GDP data on a monthly and quarterly cycle, with the next release typically following around four to six weeks later. Check the UK GDP hub page for the confirmed date.
← Previous UK GDP

Canada CPI December 2026
2026-12-14 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next Canada CPI: Monday, December 14, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
3.0% YoY (July 2026, latest confirmed reading)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Canada CPI
Statistics Canada releases the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2026 on Monday, December 14, 2026, at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time). The report is Canada’s main measure of consumer price inflation and is watched closely by the Bank of Canada, currency traders and anyone with a mortgage, savings account or pension tied to Canadian assets. Full schedule and background: Canada CPI.
What is the Canada Consumer Price Index?
The CPI tracks the change in prices Canadians pay for a fixed basket of goods and services, covering eight major groups including food, shelter, transportation and household operations. Statistics Canada compares the cost of this basket month to month and year to year, and the year-over-year change is the headline inflation figure most reported in the news.
Alongside the headline number, Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada also track “core” measures that strip out volatile items such as gasoline and some food prices. The two most closely watched are the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI, both designed to show the underlying trend in prices without short-term noise from a single volatile category. These core measures matter because the Bank of Canada uses them, alongside headline inflation, to decide whether interest rates need to rise, fall or hold steady.
Markets watch CPI because it feeds directly into interest rate decisions. Persistently high inflation tends to keep the Bank of Canada cautious about cutting rates, while a sustained slowdown gives it room to lower borrowing costs. Because Canada’s economy is closely linked to the United States through trade, the CPI print is also watched by investors in the US, Europe and Asia for signs of how tariffs, energy prices and global demand are feeding through to consumer costs.
When is the November CPI released?
Statistics Canada publishes the November 2026 CPI report on Monday, December 14, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London time). The release is published on the agency’s website as part of “The Daily” bulletin, with the full statistical tables available through the Consumer Price Index portal. Statistics Canada has confirmed this release date as part of its published 2026 release calendar.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the November 2026 CPI reading has not yet been published. Consensus estimates from surveys such as those compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg typically appear in the days immediately before the release, once economists have incorporated the most recent trade, energy and labour market data.
The most recently confirmed Statistics Canada figures at the time of writing were for July 2026, when headline inflation rose to 3.0% year-on-year from 2.8% in June 2026, a move TD Economics described as “one tick higher than markets were anticipating”. Core measures had been softening: the median CPI stood at 1.9% and the trimmed-mean CPI at 1.8% in June 2026, both described by Trading Economics as their “lowest in over five years” at that point.

Measure
Prior (June 2026)
Latest confirmed (July 2026)

Headline CPI (year-on-year)
2.8%
3.0%

Median CPI (Bank of Canada core measure)
2.1%
1.9%

Trimmed-mean CPI (Bank of Canada core measure)
2.0%
1.8%

Figures for August, September, October and November 2026 were not yet confirmed through an official Statistics Canada release at the time this page was prepared. Readers should check the official StatCan release for the most current reading before the November print is published.
What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Bond yields and the Canadian dollar could firm as traders trim bets on near-term rate cuts
Prices are rising faster than expected, which could keep the Bank of Canada cautious about lowering interest rates, meaning higher borrowing costs stay in place for longer

In line with consensus
Muted market reaction, with focus shifting to the core inflation components
Inflation is behaving broadly as expected, so the Bank of Canada’s existing policy plan is unlikely to change because of this release alone

Below consensus
The Canadian dollar could soften and short-term bond yields could fall as markets price in a greater chance of a rate cut
Prices are rising more slowly than expected, which could give the Bank of Canada more room to cut interest rates and support borrowers

These are possible market reactions described by analysts, not predictions. Statistics Canada’s July 2026 report noted that gasoline prices were a key driver of the headline rate, rising 25.7% year-on-year that month, while shelter and grocery price inflation continued to ease, according to Statistics Canada.
Why does this release matter right now?
Canadian inflation has been on an uneven path through 2026. After falling from the 40-year peak of 6.8% reached in June 2022, headline CPI settled below 2% for stretches of 2025 before drifting higher again into the summer of 2026, according to data compiled by WealthNorth using Statistics Canada’s official series. The July 2026 uptick to 3.0% was driven largely by higher pump prices linked to renewed tensions between Iran and the United States, which pushed wholesale fuel costs higher.
A separate and persistent theme through 2026 has been the risk that US tariffs on Canadian goods pass through into consumer prices, particularly for imported machinery, vehicles and some food inputs, a risk Statistics Canada has flagged directly. TD Economics noted that the threat of 50% tariffs on some Canadian exports remained unresolved through the summer, adding uncertainty to the inflation outlook. The Bank of Canada has said it will remain “data-dependent” given these external risks, meaning each CPI print carries extra weight for its rate decisions in the months ahead.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and loans: If inflation runs hotter than expected, the Bank of Canada is less likely to cut its policy rate soon, which keeps variable mortgage rates and lines of credit more expensive. A cooler than expected reading increases the chance of rate cuts, which could eventually lower monthly payments for homeowners renewing a mortgage.
Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) tend to move with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, so a weaker inflation print could see savings rates edge down over time, while a stronger print could keep them higher for longer.
Jobs and wages: Persistent inflation above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target can squeeze household budgets if wage growth does not keep pace, particularly for lower income households who spend a larger share of income on food and fuel.
Prices in everyday life: Grocery and fuel prices have been the biggest swing factors in Canadian CPI through 2026. Anyone budgeting for household bills should watch these two categories closely in the release, as they can move the headline number even when underlying inflation is stable.
Investments, pensions and the currency: The Canadian dollar tends to strengthen when inflation surprises to the upside, since it reduces the odds of near-term rate cuts, and to weaken on a downside surprise. This matters for UK, European and Asian investors holding Canadian dollar assets or bonds, as well as for pension funds with exposure to Canadian equities and fixed income.

Related events

Previous release: Canada CPI, November 2026 data (October release)
Full release history and background: Canada CPI hub
The next Bank of Canada interest rate decision, which typically follows the CPI release by one to two weeks and takes this data into account

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 Canada CPI released?
Statistics Canada publishes the report at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London, on Monday, December 14, 2026.
How do I read the CPI report?
Focus first on the year-on-year headline figure, then check the median and trimmed-mean core measures, which strip out volatile items like gasoline and give a clearer picture of the underlying inflation trend the Bank of Canada watches most closely.
How does this release affect Bank of Canada interest rates?
The Bank of Canada uses CPI data, particularly the core measures, to help decide whether to raise, cut or hold its policy rate, so a surprise in either direction can shift market expectations for the next rate decision.
Where can I find the official release?
The report is published on the Statistics Canada website as part of “The Daily” bulletin, with full data tables available through the Consumer Price Index portal.
When is the next Canada CPI report released?
Statistics Canada typically releases CPI data roughly three weeks after the end of each reference month, so the December 2026 CPI report is expected in mid-January 2027, with the exact date confirmed on the agency’s published release calendar closer to the time.
← Previous Canada CPI

UK Labour Market Report December 2026
2026-12-15 02:00 - 03:00 (America/New_York)
Next UK Labour Market Report: Tuesday, December 15, 2026 at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
4.9% unemployment rate (three months to June 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: UK Labour Market Report.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous UK Labour Market Report
The UK Labour Market Report for December 2026 is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday, December 15, 2026, at 7:00am London time (2:00am ET). The release brings together the Labour Force Survey estimates of employment and unemployment, HMRC payrolled employee figures, and average earnings growth, covering the rolling three-month period through October 2026 alongside a provisional payrolled-employee estimate for November. Full background and the release schedule for this series sit on the UK Labour Market Report hub page.
What is the UK Labour Market Report?
The Labour Market Report is the ONS’s monthly snapshot of who is working, who is looking for work, and how much pay is growing across the UK economy. It combines three main data sources: the Labour Force Survey (a household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate, employment rate and economic inactivity rate), HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information (used to count payrolled employees), and the Average Weekly Earnings survey of businesses (used to measure wage growth).
Because the headline Labour Force Survey figures are a three-month rolling average, each release describes a quarter rather than a single month, for example “August to October 2026”. The payrolled employee count, by contrast, is a near-real-time HMRC tax-data series and is usually reported for the most recent single month available.
Markets watch this release closely because the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee treats the labour market as one of the clearest signals of inflationary pressure in the domestic economy. A tight jobs market with strong wage growth tends to support the case for higher interest rates, while rising unemployment and slowing pay growth make the case for cuts.
When is the December labour market report released?
The report is due on Tuesday, December 15, 2026, at 7:00am London time, which is 2:00am ET (note the report lands overnight for US traders and before the New York market opens). It is published by the Office for National Statistics and appears on the ONS website’s labour market bulletin series, alongside the accompanying data tables and the ONS release calendar.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the December 2026 release has not yet been published by data providers such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Economist forecasts for UK labour market data typically emerge in the days immediately before the release, once analysts have digested the most recent purchasing managers’ surveys, vacancy data and payroll figures. Readers should check back closer to the date for a published median forecast.
The most recent confirmed reading available at the time of writing came from the ONS bulletin covering April to June 2026, published in August 2026, which put the unemployment rate at 4.9%, up 0.2 percentage points on the year but down 0.1 percentage points on the previous quarter, according to the ONS Labour market overview, UK: August 2026. Earlier bulletins through June and July 2026 recorded the same 4.9% rate for the preceding rolling quarters, suggesting the rate had stabilised at close to a multi-year high after climbing from 5.1% in the three months to October 2025.

Measure
Prior reading
Consensus for December release

Unemployment rate (16+)
4.9% (three months to June 2026)
Not yet published

Average earnings, total pay (annual growth)
4.1% (three months to March 2026)
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Unemployment and wage growth above consensus
Sterling could firm and gilt yields could rise, as traders push back the timing of any further Bank of England rate cut
A tighter jobs market with hotter pay growth suggests inflation pressure at home is not fading, which argues for borrowing costs staying higher for longer

Broadly in line with the prior trend
A muted reaction, with markets keeping current interest rate expectations largely unchanged
The labour market continues on its recent path of a high but roughly stable unemployment rate and gradually cooling wage growth, giving the Bank of England no reason to shift course

Unemployment higher and wage growth weaker than consensus
Gilt yields could fall and sterling could soften, as markets bring forward expectations of Bank of England rate cuts
A weakening jobs market and slower pay growth reduce the risk that wages keep pushing prices up, making it easier for the Bank to cut rates to support growth

These are possible reactions described by market commentators, not predictions. Economists at outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically frame their post-release notes around whether the data changes the expected path of Bank Rate rather than any single number in isolation.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of England has spent much of 2026 weighing a labour market that cooled from the tight conditions of 2022 and 2023 without collapsing outright. Data through the summer of 2026 showed the unemployment rate holding near 4.9%, its highest level in several years, while payrolled employee numbers fell for a sustained run of months on HMRC’s Real Time Information data, according to the ONS’s own bulletins. At the same time, wage growth has been gradually slowing from the very high rates seen earlier in the decade, with total pay growth around 4.1% and regular pay growth around 3.4% in the first quarter of 2026, per the ONS.
The House of Commons Library’s labour market briefing noted that real (inflation-adjusted) wages were still rising modestly through the second quarter of 2026, meaning household spending power was improving even as headline job numbers softened. The December report will show whether that combination of a stable-to-softer jobs market and gradually cooling pay growth has continued into the autumn, feeding directly into the Bank of England’s February 2027 rate decision and the Monetary Policy Committee’s assessment of underlying inflation pressure.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and borrowing: A weaker jobs market and slower wage growth tend to make it more likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, which can eventually feed through into cheaper fixed and tracker mortgage rates. A stronger-than-expected report has the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer.
Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts broadly track Bank Rate. If this report points towards rate cuts, savers may see returns on easy-access and fixed savings accounts drift lower over the following months.
Jobs and wages: The unemployment rate and vacancy figures give a direct read on how easy it is to find or change jobs. Wage growth figures matter for anyone negotiating a pay rise or checking whether their pay is keeping up with the cost of living.
Prices: Wage growth is one of the inputs the Bank of England watches for signs that inflation could persist, because businesses often pass higher staff costs on to customers through prices.
Investments, pensions and currencies: UK gilts, the pound and London-listed shares can all move on this data, since it shapes expectations for interest rates. A softer labour market that raises the odds of rate cuts can weaken sterling against the dollar and euro, which affects the cost of imported goods and holidays abroad, while also potentially supporting UK share prices sensitive to lower borrowing costs. Investors and pension savers with exposure to UK bonds or equities may see portfolio values shift on the day of release, particularly if the figures surprise against whatever consensus forecast is eventually published.
Related events

Previous release: UK Labour Market Report, November 2026
UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) release, which the Bank of England reads alongside wage growth data when assessing inflation pressure
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision, which draws directly on labour market trends shown in this report

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the UK Labour Market Report released?
The December 2026 report is released at 7:00am London time on Tuesday, December 15, 2026, which is 2:00am ET.
What period does the December report cover?
The headline employment and unemployment figures cover the rolling three-month period expected to run from August to October 2026, with a more up-to-date single-month estimate for payrolled employees.
How does this report affect UK interest rates?
The Bank of England uses labour market slack and wage growth as key gauges of domestic inflation pressure, so a notably stronger or weaker report than expected can shift market expectations for the timing of future Bank Rate changes.
Where can I find the official release?
The report is published on the ONS release calendar and appears as a “Labour market overview, UK” bulletin on the ONS website, with full data tables available for download.
When is the next UK Labour Market Report?
ONS labour market reports are published monthly, so the next release is expected in mid-January 2027, following the same rolling three-month reporting pattern.
← Previous UK Labour Market Report

US Producer Price Index December 2026
2026-12-15 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Producer Price Index: Tuesday, December 15, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US Producer Price Index
US Producer Price Index December 2026: Preview
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for November 2026 is scheduled for release on 15 December 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the monthly PPI report tracks average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers and is one of the most closely watched inflation gauges in the US economic calendar.
Producer price inflation remained sharply elevated through the first half of 2026, driven by the pass-through of import tariffs introduced in 2025, rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, and strong demand for goods. The April 2026 reading of +6.0% year-over-year was the steepest annual increase since December 2022. With the Federal Reserve closely monitoring pipeline inflation ahead of its final policy meeting of the year, the December PPI release carries particular weight.
Markets will be watching whether producer price pressures began to ease in November or whether elevated input costs continued to build momentum heading into year-end. The report lands just days before the FOMC Rate Decision December 2026, amplifying its significance for bond and equity markets alike.
What the Producer Price Index Is and Why It Matters
The Producer Price Index measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which captures prices paid by end consumers, the PPI reflects cost pressures at an earlier stage in the supply chain, making it a useful leading indicator for future consumer inflation.
The BLS publishes three main PPI aggregates: final demand goods, final demand services, and the headline final demand index. Each is broken down further into thousands of commodity categories ranging from crude materials and processed foods to transportation and trade services. The headline index is released on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month (MoM) basis and an unadjusted year-over-year (YoY) basis, allowing analysts to strip out seasonal patterns and compare the underlying trend.
Because producer prices often take several months to flow through to retail shelves, a sustained increase in the PPI can foreshadow higher consumer prices, influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions, corporate margin expectations, and fixed-income markets. The PPI is also used extensively in contracts and regulatory proceedings to escalate prices for long-term agreements.
PPI Trend: Recent Readings
US producer price inflation accelerated markedly in 2026, following a relatively contained period in mid-2025. The chart below summarises key recent readings:

Release Date
Reference Month
YoY (Unadjusted)
MoM (Seasonally Adjusted)

July 2025
June 2025
+2.3%
—

October 2025
August 2025
+2.6%
—

April 2026
March 2026
+4.0%
—

May 2026
April 2026
+6.0%
+1.4%

15 Dec 2026
November 2026
Consensus TBC
Consensus TBC

The April 2026 reading of +6.0% year-over-year was the largest 12-month advance since December 2022. The acceleration from +4.0% in March to +6.0% in April was attributed to a surge in trade service margins, higher transportation costs, and energy price volatility following escalating geopolitical tensions. Month-over-month, final demand goods rose 2.0% in April while final demand services gained 1.2%, both above expectations.
TradingEconomics estimates project US producer prices running at approximately 7.2% by the end of Q3 2026 before moderating toward 3.0% in 2027 as the base effects of tariff-related shocks normalise. Whether that moderation has begun in November’s data is the central question for the December release.
No consensus estimate for the November 2026 PPI had been published at the time of writing. Markets will form expectations based on the October reading, energy price movements in November, and broader global supply-chain developments in the intervening months.
What to Watch on 15 December 2026
Several sub-components will be under close scrutiny when the BLS releases the November 2026 PPI:
Final demand goods vs. services split. In April 2026, goods prices rose 2.0% month-over-month while services gained 1.2%. A moderation in goods prices — particularly if import tariff effects begin to diminish — would signal a healthier pipeline for consumer goods inflation in early 2027. If services inflation stays sticky, it points to a more durable core inflation problem.
Core PPI excluding food and energy. The Federal Reserve pays close attention to core measures that strip out volatile components. If core producer prices remain elevated in November, the case for maintaining a restrictive federal funds rate well into 2027 is strengthened. Analysts will compare the core reading against September and October figures to assess the trend direction.
Trade services margins. Tariff-driven margin expansion among wholesalers and retailers has been a key driver of headline PPI throughout 2026. A moderation in trade services would be a positive sign that pricing power is beginning to normalise as supply chains adjust. A further widening would suggest businesses are still passing costs down the chain.
Energy sub-index. Energy prices can shift the headline PPI significantly month-to-month. If crude oil prices declined materially during November 2026, the energy sub-index would likely dampen the goods component and pull down the headline reading. Conversely, any oil price spike in November would add to inflationary pressure.
Transportation and warehousing costs. Supply-chain bottlenecks and elevated freight costs have been persistent themes in 2026. A moderation in this category would signal improving logistics conditions and reduced cost pressure on goods producers and retailers.
Market Reaction
Producer price data primarily moves bond markets, but a surprise relative to consensus can ripple across asset classes:

Treasuries: A stronger-than-expected PPI print typically pushes US Treasury yields higher and prices lower, as markets price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. A softer reading would do the opposite, supporting Treasury prices.
US Dollar: Elevated producer inflation can support the dollar by raising expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates. A downside surprise could weaken the dollar as rate expectations are repriced.
Equities: Input cost pressures highlighted in the PPI weigh on corporate profit margin expectations, particularly for goods producers, industrials, and consumer staples companies. A moderation in the PPI would be welcomed by equities as a sign that margin pressure may be easing.
FOMC positioning: The December PPI lands just ahead of the FOMC Rate Decision December 2026, making it one of the final data points the Fed digests before its year-end policy decision. A surprise in either direction could influence pre-meeting trading.

The proximity to year-end amplifies the market sensitivity of the report, as portfolio managers engage in rebalancing and positioning for 2027 during the same period.
How PPI Fits into the Broader US Economic Picture
The November 2026 PPI release lands at a critical juncture in the US inflation cycle. The US CPI Report December 2026, which covers the same November reference month, is also scheduled for mid-December. Together, the two reports will give markets a comprehensive view of the current state of the US inflation pipeline — both at the producer and consumer level.
Producer price inflation in 2026 has been driven primarily by the tariff environment introduced in 2025, which raised the cost of imported intermediate and finished goods. Domestic energy prices and geopolitical tensions have added a second layer of volatility. Whether those factors have begun to stabilise or reverse is the key question for the end of the year.
Looking further ahead, economists broadly expect PPI to trend lower through 2027 as tariff base effects normalise and global supply chains continue to adjust. TradingEconomics projects US producer prices around 3.0% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028. However, any renewed supply disruption, escalation in trade policy, or energy market shock could delay that normalisation significantly. The December 2026 PPI reading will provide an important early signal of whether the moderation path is on track.
The US Producer Price Index November 2026, released on 13 November, will provide the immediate baseline comparison for the December reading. Investors and policymakers will be comparing the two reports carefully to identify whether November’s data marks the beginning of a turning point.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the US Producer Price Index?
The PPI is a family of indices published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that measures average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It covers thousands of goods, services, and construction categories across the US economy.
When is the November 2026 PPI released?
The BLS is scheduled to publish the November 2026 PPI data on 15 December 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (13:30 GMT).
How does the PPI differ from the CPI?
The CPI measures prices paid by consumers at the retail level. The PPI measures prices received by producers at the wholesale and factory level. PPI is generally considered a leading indicator for CPI because producer costs often flow through to consumer prices over subsequent months.
Why has US PPI been so elevated in 2026?
Producer price inflation accelerated sharply in 2026, driven by the pass-through of import tariffs introduced in 2025, rising energy costs, and strong goods demand. The April 2026 reading of +6.0% year-over-year was the highest in over three years.
Why does the December PPI matter for the Fed?
The Federal Reserve monitors PPI alongside CPI and PCE inflation data. Persistently high PPI can signal ongoing inflationary pipeline pressure, supporting a higher-for-longer rate stance. The December release falls immediately ahead of the FOMC Rate Decision December 2026, giving it added market significance.

UK CPI Inflation December 2026
2026-12-16 02:00 - 03:00 (America/New_York)
Next UK CPI Inflation: Wednesday, December 16, 2026 at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Not yet published at time of writing (October 2026 CPI)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: UK CPI Inflation.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous UK CPI Inflation
The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2026 is due for release on Wednesday, December 16, 2026, at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET), published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This report covers price changes across the economy for November 2026 and is one of the most closely watched economic releases of the month for the Bank of England, the government and households alike. Full schedule and background: UK CPI report dates.
What is the UK Consumer Prices Index?
The CPI tracks the average change in prices paid by UK households for a fixed basket of goods and services, from food and fuel to rent, clothing and leisure. The ONS updates the basket each year to reflect how people actually spend money, then measures how much that basket would cost from one month to the next.
Two figures matter most. The headline rate includes everything in the basket, including volatile items such as petrol and fresh food. The core rate strips out food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, giving a steadier read on underlying price pressure in the economy. The Bank of England pays close attention to both, but leans more heavily on core and services inflation when judging whether price growth is likely to persist.
Markets watch CPI because it feeds directly into the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions. A basis point is one hundredth of one percentage point, and small shifts in the inflation data can move expectations for whether the Bank will raise, hold or cut its base rate, which in turn affects mortgage rates, savings returns and the value of the pound.
When is the November CPI report released?
The ONS will publish the November 2026 CPI report on Wednesday, December 16, 2026, at 7:00 am London time, which is 2:00 am ET. The release is published on the ONS release calendar and appears simultaneously on the ONS website as a full statistical bulletin with tables and a summary. The date follows the ONS’s standard practice of releasing CPI data around the middle of the month following the reference period, so the November data appears in mid-December.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the November 2026 CPI reading had not yet been published. City economists and data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg typically issue their polled forecasts in the days immediately before the release, once more of the underlying data, including fuel prices and retailer pricing surveys, is available. Readers wanting the latest polled figure closer to December 16, 2026 should check the ONS release page or a financial data provider directly, since forecasts can shift materially in the final week before publication.
Similarly, the October 2026 CPI reading, which would serve as the prior figure for this release, was not independently verifiable from official sources at the time this preview was prepared. The table below will typically be completed with the prior month’s headline and core rates once the October data has been confirmed by the ONS.

Measure
Prior (October 2026)
Consensus (November 2026)

Headline CPI (year-on-year)
To be confirmed via ONS release
Not yet published

Core CPI (year-on-year)
To be confirmed via ONS release
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Sterling could firm and gilt yields rise as traders price in a lower chance of near-term Bank of England rate cuts
Prices are rising faster than expected, which may keep borrowing costs higher for longer

In line with consensus
A broadly muted reaction, since the print confirms the existing rate-cut or rate-hold path already priced into markets
Inflation is behaving roughly as expected, so the Bank of England’s current stance is unlikely to change quickly

Below consensus
Gilt yields could fall and sterling may soften on expectations that the Bank of England has more room to cut rates
Prices are cooling faster than expected, which could eventually feed through to cheaper mortgages and loans

These are possibilities based on how markets have typically reacted to inflation surprises, not predictions of what will happen on December 16, 2026. Analysts such as those surveyed in Reuters polls generally caution that a single month’s data rarely changes the Bank of England’s policy path on its own.
Why does this release matter right now?
Inflation has been the central issue shaping Bank of England policy since 2022, when price growth spiked well above the Bank’s 2% target. Since then, the Monetary Policy Committee has balanced the need to bring inflation back to target against the risk of slowing growth and pushing up unemployment. Every CPI print is scrutinised for signs of whether services inflation and wage growth, both of which the Bank watches as gauges of domestic price pressure, are cooling in a durable way.
The November reading also lands close to the Bank of England’s final Monetary Policy Committee meeting of 2026, meaning it could be one of the last major data points policymakers see before setting rates into the new year. It will also be read alongside labour market and wage figures from the ONS, since persistent wage growth above the level consistent with 2% inflation tends to keep the Bank cautious about cutting rates too quickly.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and loans: If CPI comes in hotter than expected, expectations for Bank of England rate cuts can fade, which tends to keep fixed mortgage rates and other borrowing costs higher for longer. A cooler than expected reading can have the opposite effect, potentially feeding through to cheaper new fixed-rate mortgage deals over time.
Savings: Higher inflation erodes the real value of cash sitting in savings accounts unless the interest rate paid keeps pace. Savers should compare their account rate with the CPI figure to judge whether their money is keeping up with the cost of living.
Jobs and wages: Inflation data is often paired with pay negotiations. If prices are rising faster than wages, household budgets come under pressure, which is one reason the Bank of England watches wage growth alongside CPI.
Investments and pensions: UK gilts (government bonds) and pension funds that hold them are sensitive to inflation surprises, since higher inflation can reduce the real return on fixed-income investments. Equity markets can also move on rate expectations tied to the data.
The pound: Sterling often reacts to CPI surprises because they shift expectations for Bank of England policy relative to the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. A stronger pound makes imports cheaper and overseas holidays less expensive for UK travellers, while a weaker pound has the opposite effect and can add to imported inflation for UK households and businesses trading with Europe and Asia.

Related events

The previous UK CPI release, covering October 2026 data, is available here: UK CPI Inflation November 2026.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decisions, which respond directly to CPI trends, are tracked on the site’s UK rate decision pages.
UK labour market and average earnings data, published separately by the ONS, is often read alongside CPI to judge underlying inflation pressure.

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 UK CPI report released?
The ONS publishes the report at 7:00 am London time on December 16, 2026, which is 2:00 am ET.
Where can I find the official CPI release?
The full statistical bulletin is published on the ONS release calendar alongside downloadable tables and a plain-English summary.
How does CPI affect UK interest rates?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee uses CPI, particularly the core and services measures, as a key input when deciding whether to raise, hold or cut the base rate, which in turn affects mortgage and savings rates across the country.
What is the difference between headline and core CPI?
Headline CPI includes all items in the basket, including volatile food and energy prices, while core CPI strips these out to show underlying price pressure that is less affected by short-term swings.
When is the next UK CPI report due?
The December 2026 CPI report, covering the final month of the year, is typically published by the ONS in mid-January 2027, following the same monthly release pattern.
← Previous UK CPI Inflation

Riksbank Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-16 03:30 - 04:30 (America/New_York)
Next Riksbank Rate Decision: Wednesday, December 16, 2026 at 9:30 am CET (3:30 am ET, 8:30 am London).

Consensus
A consensus forecast specific to this meeting has not yet been published; most economists expect a hold at 1.75%
Prior
Held at 1.75% (November 11, 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Riksbank Rate Decision.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Riksbank Rate Decision
Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, announces its final interest rate decision of 2026 on Wednesday, December 16, 2026 at 3:30 am ET (8:30 am London, 9:30 am CET). The Executive Board currently holds the policy rate at 1.75%, its level since a quarter-point cut in September 2026. The decision is published alongside the Monetary Policy Update, and Governor Erik Thedéen typically holds a press conference shortly after the release. Full schedule and background: Riksbank Rate Decision.
What is the Riksbank and what does it decide?
The Riksbank is Sweden’s central bank, one of the oldest in the world, and is responsible for setting the policy rate that governs the cost of borrowing throughout the Swedish economy. Its mandate, set by the Riksdag (Sweden’s parliament), is to maintain price stability, targeting inflation of 2% as measured by the CPIF (consumer price index with a fixed interest rate), while also supporting a balanced development of production and employment where this does not conflict with the price stability goal.
Decisions are made by the Executive Board, a six-member committee that includes the Governor and five Deputy Governors. Votes are taken on a majority basis, with the Governor holding the casting vote in the event of a tie. The Board meets to set the policy rate five times a year, publishing a full Monetary Policy Report or Update at each meeting, with the December meeting typically the last of the calendar year before the cycle restarts in early 2027.
The Riksbank’s decisions matter well beyond Sweden. As one of Europe’s inflation-targeting central banks operating outside the eurozone, its policy stance is watched by investors trading the Swedish krona and by Nordic and European fixed-income markets, and it is sometimes viewed as an early signal of how smaller advanced economies are responding to shifts in eurozone and US monetary policy.
When is the December Riksbank decision announced?
The policy rate announcement and accompanying Monetary Policy Update are published at 9:30 am CET (3:30 am ET, 8:30 am London) on December 16, 2026. The statement sets out the Executive Board’s rate decision and its updated forecast for the policy rate path, growth and inflation. A press conference with the Governor follows the release, generally within an hour, where journalists question the Board on its reasoning and the balance of risks. Minutes of the meeting, showing individual Board members’ views and any dissents, are usually published around a week after the decision, on the Riksbank’s website.
What to expect
The Riksbank has held its policy rate at 1.75% since cutting by 25 basis points in September 2026, following a series of cuts through 2025 that brought the rate down from its post-pandemic peak. At its November 2026 meeting the Board again left the rate unchanged, judging that elevated inflation had begun to ease while economic activity was gradually recovering, according to Morningstar Nordics. Economists at SEB have said they expect the policy rate to be kept unchanged through the rest of 2026, while flagging some downside risk to that view, per the same report.
For the December meeting, most analysts covering Swedish rates expect the Board to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, in line with the flat rate path it signalled in its own forecasts published earlier in the year. A change in either direction would be a shift from that guidance, so markets will focus closely on any revision to the projected rate path in the Monetary Policy Update rather than on the headline decision alone.

Meeting
Decision
Rate after meeting

September 2026
Cut 25bp
1.75%

November 2026
Held
1.75%

December 2026
Decision pending
To be confirmed

Earlier 2026 decisions, including the Board’s first meeting of the year, also left the rate unchanged at 1.75% following three cuts made across 2025, according to Sveriges Riksbank.
Market impact scenarios

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Hold at 1.75%
Expected outcome; muted krona reaction unless the rate path forecast changes
Borrowing costs in Sweden stay where they are; the Riksbank sees the current setting as appropriate for now

Cut to 1.50%
Krona likely to weaken; seen as a dovish surprise given recent guidance
The Riksbank judges inflation or growth has weakened enough to justify cheaper borrowing across the economy

Hawkish hold or hike signal
Krona likely to strengthen; Swedish bond yields could rise
The Board flags that a rate increase is more likely later in 2027 because inflation risks have grown

What will the statement and press conference signal?
Investors and economists will scrutinise the Monetary Policy Update for any change to the projected rate path, since the Riksbank has repeatedly said it expects the policy rate to remain at 1.75% “for some time to come”. Any adjustment to that language, or to the inflation and growth forecasts underpinning it, would be read as forward guidance about the direction of the next move. Analysts will also watch the vote split in the minutes for signs of dissent among the six Executive Board members, which can hint at how close the Board is to changing course, and any commentary on the krona’s exchange rate, since a weak currency can add to imported inflation.
What It Means for Your Money
For people with a mortgage in Sweden, a held rate means monthly repayments on variable-rate loans stay roughly where they are, while a cut would ease pressure on household budgets and a hike would raise it. Savers with Swedish krona deposits will see little change to savings rates if the Riksbank holds, but a cut typically feeds through to lower returns on instant-access and fixed savings accounts within weeks.
The decision also affects currency markets: a more dovish tone tends to weaken the krona against the pound, dollar and euro, making Swedish exports cheaper abroad but imports, including energy and food, more expensive at home. For people in the UK and eurozone, the Riksbank’s stance offers a read on how smaller, open European economies are managing the trade-off between inflation and growth, which can inform expectations for the Bank of England and European Central Bank even though those institutions set policy independently. Pension funds and investors holding Nordic equities or bonds may see modest price moves in Swedish assets around the announcement, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors such as banks and housebuilders.
Anyone with a variable-rate loan, a tracker mortgage, or savings held in Swedish krona should treat this decision as a signal of the general direction of borrowing costs in Sweden over the coming months, rather than something that changes their finances overnight.
Related events

Previous decision: Riksbank Rate Decision, November 2026
Full schedule and background: Riksbank Rate Decision hub
Swedish inflation (CPIF) and labour market data released in the weeks before the meeting typically shape the Board’s final decision

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the December 2026 Riksbank decision announced?
The decision is published at 9:30 am CET on December 16, 2026, which is 3:30 am ET and 8:30 am London time.
Will the Riksbank cut rates in December 2026?
Most economists expect the Riksbank to hold the policy rate at 1.75%, according to forecasts cited by Morningstar Nordics, though a consensus figure specific to this meeting has not yet been published.
What is the Riksbank’s current policy rate?
The policy rate has stood at 1.75% since the Riksbank’s September 2026 cut, and was held at that level at the November 2026 meeting.
When is the next Riksbank meeting after December 2026?
The Riksbank’s 2027 meeting calendar is published on the Riksbank’s official calendar page, which lists the exact dates once confirmed.
Where can I watch the Riksbank press conference?
The press conference is streamed live on the Riksbank’s official website shortly after the rate decision is published.
← Previous Riksbank Rate Decision

US Retail Sales December 2026
2026-12-16 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE): Wednesday, December 16, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE).
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE)
The US Census Bureau publishes the advance estimate of retail and food services sales for November 2026 on 16 December 2026. November is the single most important month in the US retail calendar, encompassing Black Friday (27 November 2026) and Cyber Monday (30 November 2026). The December release accordingly provides the first official read on the health of the 2026 holiday shopping season, and is one of the most closely watched consumer data prints of the year.

At a Glance

Detail

Information

Release

Advance Retail and Food Services Sales

Releasing Agency

US Census Bureau

Release Date

16 December 2026

Reference Period

November 2026

Release Time

8:30 am Eastern Time

Prior Reading (April 2026)

+0.5% MoM / +4.9% YoY

Frequency

Monthly

Market Impact

Very High

Why November Is the Critical Month

No monthly retail sales report attracts more attention than the November reading. The month contains Black Friday on 27 November 2026, historically the single largest shopping day in the US calendar, and Cyber Monday on 30 November, which has grown into one of the most significant online spending events globally. Combined, the five-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday (the “Cyber Five”) represents a disproportionate share of fourth-quarter and full-year retail volumes for many merchants.

The official Census Bureau data provides the definitive measure of how well the 2026 holiday season opened, filling in and contextualising the partial and often conflicting early estimates published by payment networks, retail federations, and industry trackers. A strong November print is typically interpreted as a positive signal for the December holiday spending period; a weak reading raises concerns about consumer confidence and the trajectory of full-year personal consumption.

What the Report Measures

The advance retail sales report covers total receipts at stores selling merchandise and at food services establishments across 13 major categories. The Census Bureau surveys approximately 5,500 firms monthly and publishes the advance estimate before two subsequent revisions.

The four headline figures for November are:

Total retail and food services sales — the broadest measure, seasonally adjusted month-on-month change.

Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts — strips out the most volatile single component.

Sales excluding motor vehicles and petrol — removes vehicle and fuel effects to focus on broader consumer discretionary and staples spending.

The control group — excludes motor vehicles, fuel stations, building materials, and food services. This feeds directly into the GDP personal consumption expenditures calculation and is the most analytically significant subcomponent for economists modelling Q4 growth.

Context: The 2026 Holiday Season Build-Up

The US Retail Sales November 2026 release on 17 November, covering October spending, will provide the immediate backdrop for interpreting the December report. Strong October momentum would set a higher base for November, making a repeated month-on-month gain more demanding but year-on-year comparisons more meaningful.

The labour market reading for November, released in the US Employment Situation (December 2026) on 4 December, will indicate whether the income and employment foundation for holiday spending remained solid heading into the Black Friday period. A strong jobs report would reinforce consumer confidence; a soft reading could raise concerns about discretionary spending capacity.

What to Watch

Black Friday and Cyber Monday volumes. Several industry bodies and payment processors publish advance spending estimates for the Cyber Five period in late November and early December. These previews, while methodologically distinct from the Census Bureau data, provide directional guidance on the official release. Significant divergence between industry estimates and the Census reading can indicate either methodological differences or genuine complexity in seasonal adjustment.

Non-store retailers and e-commerce. Online retail has become the dominant engine of Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending growth. The non-store retail category in the Census data is the most direct measure of e-commerce volumes. A strong performance in this subcomponent would confirm continuing market share gains for digital retail versus physical stores.

Inflation context from the CPI. The US CPI Report (December 2026), released 10 December and covering November prices, will appear before this retail sales report. The November CPI will indicate whether Black Friday promotional discounting pushed prices measurably lower or whether underlying inflationary pressures remained intact. Heavy discounting could result in strong volume growth with flat or declining nominal revenues, compressing the headline retail figure.

General merchandise and department stores. These categories are most directly exposed to holiday gift buying. A strong performance in general merchandise alongside robust non-store retail would signal broad-based holiday spending health. Weakness concentrated in physical general merchandise alongside strength online would signal continued channel shift rather than overall demand softness.

Motor vehicles. Vehicle sales are a less seasonal component in November than in other months, but Ward’s vehicle sales data and industry reports released earlier in December provide an advance read. The auto component can shift the headline figure independently of underlying consumer trends.

Key Sectors to Monitor

Non-store retailers — The highest-growth category and the primary vehicle for Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending. Performance here is the single most important subcomponent in the November release.

General merchandise stores — Traditional retail beneficiaries of holiday shopping. Includes department stores and large-box retailers running Black Friday promotions.

Electronics and appliances — A perennial Black Friday category where deep promotional discounts drive significant volume. Strong performance signals consumer willingness to spend on big-ticket items.

Clothing and accessories — A significant gift category in November. Performance here reflects both consumer confidence and the effectiveness of holiday promotional strategies.

Food services and drinking places — Thanksgiving week typically produces a temporary dip in restaurant visits, partially recovered into the rest of the month. The net effect on monthly data depends on the timing of Thanksgiving relative to the prior year.

Building materials and garden equipment — Expected to remain subdued in November, a seasonally quiet period for this category across most of the country.

Market Implications

The December retail sales release lands 7 days after the FOMC Rate Decision on 9 December, so it will not influence that meeting directly. However, it will shape Federal Reserve thinking about fourth-quarter consumer dynamics and inform early assessments of 2027 prospects. The report arrives alongside the US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) release on 23 December, which will together paint a comprehensive picture of November consumer activity for the Fed’s year-end assessment.

For financial markets, the November retail sales print has an outsized emotional significance beyond its mechanical economic impact. A strong reading confirms that the consumer sector entered the holiday season in good health, supporting equity markets broadly and consumer discretionary stocks in particular. Retailers with large Black Friday and online sales exposure tend to react most sharply to upside or downside surprises in this release.

In currency and bond markets, a strong report raises the prospect of sustained above-trend consumption carrying into 2027, reducing Fed easing expectations and pushing yields higher. A weak reading heightens fears about consumer fatigue after a multi-year period of elevated inflation and higher interest rates, supporting Treasuries and weighing on the US dollar.

How to Read the Release

The Census Bureau publishes the advance retail sales report at 8:30 am Eastern Time. The release document provides seasonally adjusted and unadjusted month-on-month and year-on-year percentage changes across all 13 retail categories.

For November, analysts typically follow a five-step reading sequence: first, the headline seasonal adjustment and whether November’s Black Friday boost was captured as expected; second, the ex-vehicles and ex-petrol figure for the underlying trend; third, the control group reading for GDP implications; fourth, category composition, paying particular attention to non-store retail and general merchandise; and fifth, revisions to October’s advance estimate (from the November release on 17 November), which may shift the month-on-month comparison base.

Given that this report provides the first official measure of Black Friday 2026 spending, market reaction is often amplified relative to other monthly retail releases. Both the absolute level of the reading and the composition across categories will be scrutinised closely by retailers, investors, and policymakers as they set their expectations for the remainder of the holiday shopping period through December.

]]>

US Industrial Production December 2026
2026-12-16 09:15 - 10:15 (America/New_York)
Next US Industrial Production: Wednesday, December 16, 2026 at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Not independently verified at time of publication
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Industrial Production.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US Industrial Production
The US Industrial Production report for November 2026 is released on Wednesday, December 16, 2026 at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London) by the Federal Reserve Board, as part of its G.17 statistical release. Full schedule and background: US Industrial Production.
What is industrial production?
Industrial production is a monthly index compiled by the Federal Reserve that measures the real (inflation-adjusted) output of factories, mines and utilities across the United States. It is one of the oldest continuous economic series the Fed publishes and is used to track the health of the goods-producing side of the economy, which is smaller than the services sector but historically more sensitive to interest rates, energy prices and global demand.
The index is built from physical measures of output, such as tonnes of steel or barrels of oil processed, and dollar-value data, combined using a Fisher-ideal index formula. Alongside the headline number, the Fed publishes a related measure called capacity utilisation, which shows what proportion of the country’s industrial capacity is actually being used. A rising utilisation rate can be an early signal of pipeline inflation pressure, because factories running near full capacity often need to raise prices or wages to meet demand.
Markets watch the report because manufacturing and mining activity feed directly into gross domestic product and because the series is closely tied to global trade. A slowdown in US industrial output often mirrors, or is mirrored by, weaker manufacturing surveys in the eurozone, the UK and China, making this a genuinely global indicator rather than a purely domestic one.
When is the November industrial production report released?
The Federal Reserve Board publishes the report on its official G.17 release page at 9:15 am Eastern Time on December 16, 2026, which is 2:15 pm in London. The release covers activity during November 2026. The Fed typically publishes industrial production data in the middle of the following month, though the exact publication date can shift slightly around holidays and government shutdowns affecting related source data.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 industrial production report has not yet been published at the time of writing, and the previous month’s confirmed reading was not available from a verifiable public source when this page was prepared. Once economists surveyed by Reuters, Bloomberg or similar polling services publish a median forecast, and once the Federal Reserve confirms the October 2026 print, this page will be updated with attributed figures.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Industrial production (month-on-month)
Pending confirmation
Not yet published

Capacity utilisation rate
Pending confirmation
Not yet published

Readers who need the confirmed prior reading ahead of publication should consult the Federal Reserve’s own G.17 industrial production and capacity utilisation release directly.
What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Seen as a sign of resilient factory demand, potentially reinforcing expectations that the Fed can hold rates steady or move more gradually on cuts
Factories and mines produced more than expected, which can support jobs and wages in manufacturing regions but may also keep inflation pressure alive if capacity is stretched

In line with consensus
Typically a limited market reaction, since traders had already priced in the expected outcome
The industrial economy is behaving roughly as forecast, so borrowing costs and stock market pricing are unlikely to shift much on this release alone

Below consensus
Often read as evidence of a cooling goods sector, which can add to expectations of future interest rate cuts
Weaker output could mean softer demand for raw materials and components, which can eventually show up as slower hiring or shorter working hours in factories

These are possible market interpretations, not predictions. Actual reactions depend on the rest of the economic backdrop, including the labour market and inflation data released around the same time.
Why does this release matter right now?
Industrial production sits alongside employment and inflation data as one of the inputs the Federal Reserve weighs when setting interest rates, because sustained weakness in factory output can be an early warning of a broader slowdown, while persistent strength can signal that the economy still has momentum despite higher borrowing costs. The series is also watched by investors in industrial and materials companies, since it offers a timelier read on demand than quarterly earnings reports.
Globally, US manufacturing trends are linked to demand for exports from Germany, Japan, South Korea and China, so a material change in the US figure can move sentiment in overseas industrial and mining shares. Currency traders also watch the release because a stronger-than-expected US industrial economy can support the dollar if it reduces the odds of near-term rate cuts, while a weak print can weigh on the dollar against the pound and the euro.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and loan rates: Industrial production does not move mortgage rates on its own, but a run of weak readings can add to a broader case for the Fed to cut interest rates, which over time can filter through to lower borrowing costs for mortgages and car loans.
Savings: If the data feeds expectations of rate cuts, savers holding cash in high-yield savings accounts or money market funds may eventually see the interest paid on those accounts drift lower.
Jobs and wages: Factory and mining output is closely tied to hiring in manufacturing states. A sustained slowdown can mean fewer overtime hours or hiring freezes in these sectors, while stronger output can support wage growth in industrial regions.
Investments and pensions: Industrial and materials companies held in pension funds and index trackers tend to be sensitive to this data, so unexpected strength or weakness can move share prices in sectors such as steel, machinery and energy.
Currencies: A surprise in either direction can nudge the dollar against the pound and euro, which affects the cost of imported goods and the returns UK and European investors get when they convert dollar assets back into their home currency.

Related events

US Industrial Production, October 2026 data
US retail sales, published around the same week each month
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, which weigh industrial output alongside employment and inflation

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 industrial production report released?
The Federal Reserve Board publishes the report at 9:15 am ET (2:15 pm London time) on December 16, 2026.
How do I read the industrial production number?
The headline figure is a percentage change from the prior month in the seasonally adjusted index. A positive number means factories, mines and utilities produced more than the month before; a negative number means output fell.
Does industrial production affect Federal Reserve interest rate decisions?
It is one of several indicators the Fed monitors alongside employment and inflation data. It rarely moves policy on its own but contributes to the overall picture policymakers use when deciding whether to hold, cut or raise rates.
Where can I find the official release?
The data is published directly by the Federal Reserve Board on its G.17 statistical release page, which includes the headline index, capacity utilisation and detailed industry breakdowns.
When is the next industrial production report?
The Federal Reserve typically publishes industrial production data in the middle of the following month, so the December 2026 data is expected in mid-January 2027, though the exact date should be confirmed on the official release calendar nearer the time.
← Previous US Industrial Production

Australia Labour Force December 2026
2026-12-16 19:30 - 20:30 (America/New_York)
Next Australia Labour Force: Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 11:30 am AEDT (7:30 pm ET, 12:30 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
4.4% unemployment rate (May 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Australia Labour Force.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Australia Labour Force
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes its Labour Force, Australia release on Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 11:30 am AEDT, which is 7:30 pm ET on Wednesday, December 16 in the United States and 12:30 am on December 17 in London. This print covers the labour market survey for November 2026 and includes the unemployment rate, employment change, participation rate and hours worked. Full schedule and background: Australia Labour Force.
What is the Australia Labour Force report?
The Labour Force survey is Australia’s main monthly measure of employment and unemployment. Each month the ABS surveys around 26,000 households, asking whether people worked, were looking for work, or were out of the labour force entirely in the reference week. From these answers it calculates the unemployment rate (the share of the labour force without a job but actively seeking one), the participation rate (the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work) and the change in total employment, split between full-time and part-time roles.
Markets watch this release closely because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) treats the labour market as one of its two main inputs, alongside inflation, when setting the cash rate. A tight jobs market with rising wages tends to keep the RBA cautious about cutting rates, while a rising unemployment rate and falling hours worked can build the case for policy easing. Because Australia’s economy is closely tied to China and to global commodity demand, the data also carries signal value for currency traders in Asia and Europe watching the Australian dollar.
Underemployment, the share of part-time workers who want more hours but cannot get them, is published alongside the headline figures and is often cited by economists as a better guide to slack in the labour market than the unemployment rate alone.
When is the November 2026 Labour Force report released?
According to the ABS release calendar, the November 2026 Labour Force data is scheduled for release on December 17, 2026 at 11:30 am AEDT (7:30 pm ET, 12:30 am London time). The figures are published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on its website and are not subject to embargo for retail investors, meaning the numbers become public the moment the release goes live.
What is the consensus forecast?
A consensus forecast for the November 2026 unemployment rate and employment change had not been published at the time of writing. Economist forecasts for a specific month’s labour force data are typically compiled by data providers such as Reuters and Bloomberg only in the days immediately before release, once October and any preliminary indicators are known. The most recently confirmed reading available from the ABS at the time this preview was prepared was for May 2026, when the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate eased to 4.4 per cent, according to data compiled by Trading Economics from the official release. Readers checking closer to December 17 should expect that several further monthly prints, including the October 2026 data due around November 19, 2026, will have been published and will form the actual prior for this release.

Measure
Prior (most recently confirmed)
Consensus

Unemployment rate
4.4% (May 2026)
Not yet published

Employment change
+40,300 (May 2026)
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus (unemployment rate rises more than expected, or employment falls)
Could be read as a sign of a cooling labour market, supporting expectations that the RBA has room to hold or cut the cash rate; the Australian dollar has tended to soften on weaker jobs prints
More people struggling to find work, or fewer new jobs created than economists expected, which can feed through to weaker wage growth

In line with consensus
Generally treated as a non-event for interest rate expectations, with limited moves in Australian government bond yields or the currency
The labour market is behaving broadly as expected, so little changes for borrowers or savers

Below consensus (unemployment rate falls more than expected, or employment beats forecasts)
Can be read as a sign of continued labour market tightness, which some economists argue reduces the urgency for the RBA to cut rates further
More jobs being created or fewer people out of work than expected, generally a positive for household income but potentially a reason for the RBA to stay cautious on rate cuts

These are possibilities discussed by economists and should not be read as predictions of what will actually happen on December 17, 2026.
Why does this release matter right now?
Through the first half of 2026 the Australian labour market showed signs of loosening after several years of historically low unemployment. The ABS recorded the unemployment rate climbing to 4.5 per cent in April 2026, a level not seen in several years, before easing back to 4.4 per cent in May 2026 as employment rebounded by 40,300, according to the official ABS release and data compiled by Trading Economics. This followed a period in which the rate had held at 4.3 per cent for several months, including in November 2025 and March 2026, based on ABS media releases.
The RBA has repeatedly said it is watching the labour market for evidence of how much slack remains in the economy before deciding on further changes to the cash rate. A weaker-than-expected November 2026 reading, if employment growth stalls or unemployment climbs further, would likely be read by traders as increasing the odds of a rate cut at a subsequent RBA meeting, while a stronger reading could reinforce a more cautious stance.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and rates: Australian home loan rates are heavily influenced by RBA cash rate decisions, which in turn respond to labour market data. A weak jobs report can raise the odds of a future rate cut priced in by markets, which may flow through to lower fixed mortgage rates over time; a strong report can do the opposite.
Savings: Term deposit and savings account rates in Australia tend to move with the cash rate outlook, so a shift in labour market expectations can change what banks offer savers in the months ahead.
Jobs and wages: The report directly measures whether it is getting easier or harder to find work in Australia, and sustained weakness has historically preceded slower wage growth.
Investments and pensions: Australian shares, particularly banks and retailers, and superannuation balances can react to shifts in interest rate expectations driven by labour market surprises.
Currencies: The Australian dollar (AUD) often moves on this data because it changes expectations for RBA policy; a softer jobs report can weaken the currency against the US dollar, the pound and the euro, affecting the cost of Australian exports and imports and mattering to anyone holding AUD-denominated assets or planning travel to or from Australia.

Related events

Previous release: Australia Labour Force, November 2026
Full schedule and background: Australia Labour Force hub page
RBA cash rate decisions, which react closely to this data series

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 Australia Labour Force report released?
The report is scheduled for release at 11:30 am AEDT on December 17, 2026, which is 7:30 pm ET on December 16 and 12:30 am London time on December 17.
How do I read the unemployment rate figure?
A falling unemployment rate generally signals a tightening labour market, while a rising rate signals more people are out of work and actively looking, which is often read as a sign of a slowing economy.
How does this data affect Australian interest rates?
The Reserve Bank of Australia uses labour market strength alongside inflation to judge whether the economy needs looser or tighter monetary policy, so persistent weakness or strength in this report can shift expectations for the cash rate.
Where can I find the official release?
The official data is published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on its Labour Force, Australia page.
When is the next Labour Force report after this one?
The following month’s data, covering December 2026, is scheduled for release by the ABS on January 21, 2027 at 11:30 am AEDT, based on the ABS release calendar.
← Previous Australia Labour Force

Norges Bank Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-17 04:00 - 05:00 (America/New_York)
Next Norges Bank Rate Decision: Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 10:00 am CET (4:00 am ET, 9:00 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Held at 4.25% (August 12, 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Norges Bank Rate Decision.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Norges Bank Rate Decision
The Norges Bank Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee announces its next interest rate decision on December 17, 2026, at 10:00 am CET (4:00 am ET, 9:00 am London time). The committee’s current policy rate stands at 4.25%, following meetings earlier in 2026. Full schedule and background: Norges Bank rate decision dates.
What is the Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee and what does it decide?
Norges Bank, Norway’s central bank, sets the policy rate through its Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee. The committee’s mandate is to keep inflation close to a target of 2% over time, while also taking into account employment and financial stability. It is chaired by Governor Ida Wolden Bache.
The committee typically holds eight scheduled rate meetings a year. Four of these are accompanied by a full Monetary Policy Report, which sets out new economic forecasts and a projected policy rate path; the other four are interim meetings without fresh forecasts, though the rate itself can still change.
Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, Norges Bank does not publish individual voting records for every decision, but any dissent within the committee is usually noted in the minutes released alongside the decision.
Norway is not a member of the European Union or the eurozone, so its monetary policy runs independently of the European Central Bank, though the two are watched closely together given Norway’s deep trade and financial ties with the rest of Europe. The policy rate is the main tool the committee uses to influence short-term borrowing costs across the Norwegian economy, from mortgages and business loans to bank deposit rates.
When is the December Norges Bank decision announced?
The December 2026 decision is due on Thursday, December 17, 2026, at 10:00 am local time in Oslo (CET), which is 4:00 am ET and 9:00 am London time. The announcement comes with the policy rate statement and is typically followed by a press conference with Governor Wolden Bache. December is one of the four meetings in the annual cycle that includes a full Monetary Policy Report, so updated growth, inflation and rate-path projections are expected alongside the decision.
What to expect
Norges Bank held its policy rate at 4.25% at its most recent confirmed meeting on August 12, 2026, having raised it from 4% to 4.25% at the May 6, 2026 meeting. Before that, the rate had been held at 4% at both the January and March 2026 meetings, after a period of cuts in 2025. A consensus forecast for the December decision has not yet been published; markets will likely firm up expectations closer to the meeting date based on Norwegian inflation and labour market data released in the weeks before.
Because the August meeting did not carry fresh economic forecasts, the committee’s most recent full projection came earlier in the year. The December meeting is one of the four “full report” meetings in the annual cycle, meaning traders and economists will be comparing the new rate-path projection against the one published in the previous Monetary Policy Report to gauge whether the committee has become more or less inclined to move rates in the coming year.

Meeting
Decision
Rate after meeting

January 21, 2026
Held
4.00%

March 25, 2026
Held
4.00%

May 6, 2026
Raised 25bp
4.25%

June 17, 2026
Held
4.25%

August 12, 2026
Held
4.25%

Source: Norges Bank policy rate decisions. Rows for meetings after August 2026 are omitted here where the outcome could not be independently verified against Norges Bank’s own published record at the time of writing.
Market impact scenarios

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Hold
Neutral to mildly krone-supportive if guidance stays firm, as is typical when a central bank signals patience
Borrowing costs in Norway stay where they are; no immediate change for mortgage holders or savers

Cut
Generally weakens the krone and is read as a dovish signal that growth or inflation risks have eased
Cheaper loans in Norway over time, but lower returns on Norwegian savings accounts

Hike
Tends to support the krone and signals lingering concern about inflation pressure
More expensive borrowing for Norwegian households and businesses, but better rates for savers

What will the statement and press conference signal?
Because the December meeting includes a full Monetary Policy Report, analysts will focus closely on the updated rate-path projection, which shows the committee’s own expectation for where rates are heading over the next few years. Any shift in this projected path, even without an immediate rate change, can move Norwegian bond yields and the krone. Watch also for language on wage growth, oil-linked investment, housing prices and the effect of the exchange rate on imported inflation, all of which weigh on Norges Bank’s thinking.
Dissent within the committee is rare but not unheard of, and any split vote noted in the minutes tends to draw attention as a signal that future decisions could go either way.
Norges Bank also pays close attention to developments abroad, particularly decisions by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, because Norway is a small, open economy heavily exposed to global oil prices and international trade. A widening or narrowing gap between Norwegian and eurozone interest rates can influence capital flows and the krone independently of what is happening domestically. Analysts and journalists covering the press conference will also listen for any comment on house prices, which have been a recurring theme in recent Monetary Policy Reports given household debt levels in Norway are high by international standards.
What It Means for Your Money
For people with a mortgage in Norway, a change in the policy rate feeds through quickly because most Norwegian mortgages track short-term rates closely; a hold means no immediate change, a cut would lower monthly payments over time, and a hike would raise them. Norwegian savings accounts, which also tend to move with the policy rate, would offer better returns after a hike and worse ones after a cut.
Outside Norway, the decision matters mainly through the krone. A weaker krone makes Norwegian exports, including salmon and industrial goods, cheaper for foreign buyers, and makes imports into Norway more expensive, which can feed back into Norwegian inflation. For UK and eurozone investors holding Norwegian assets or funds with krone exposure, currency swings around the decision can affect returns even if the underlying investment doesn’t change. The decision is not a direct driver of US Federal Reserve, Bank of England or European Central Bank policy, but it forms part of the broader global picture that pension funds and multi-asset investors watch when assessing interest rate trends across developed economies.
Related events

Previous decision: Norges Bank Rate Decision, November 2026
Norwegian consumer price inflation data released in the weeks before the meeting typically shapes market expectations
Norwegian labour market and wage growth figures published ahead of the meeting are closely watched by the committee

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Norges Bank decision announced?
The December 2026 decision is announced at 10:00 am CET, which is 4:00 am ET and 9:00 am London time.
What is Norway’s current policy rate?
The policy rate stood at 4.25% after being held at the August 12, 2026 meeting, following a rise from 4% at the May 2026 meeting.
Will Norges Bank cut rates in December?
No consensus forecast has yet been published for the December meeting; economists’ expectations typically firm up closer to the date based on inflation and labour market data.
When is the next Norges Bank meeting after December?
Norges Bank typically holds around eight rate meetings a year; check the Norges Bank rate decision schedule for the confirmed date of the following meeting.
Where can I watch the announcement?
Norges Bank publishes the decision and any press conference livestream on its own website, norges-bank.no.
← Previous Norges Bank Rate Decision

Germany Ifo Business Climate December 2026
2026-12-17 04:30 - 05:30 (America/New_York)
Next Germany Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 10:30 am CET (4:30 am ET, 9:30 am London).

Consensus
88.2 expected (per Reuters-polled analysts)
Prior
88.1 (November 2026)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Germany Ifo Business Climate.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Germany Ifo Business Climate
The Germany Ifo Business Climate index for December 2026 is released on Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 10:30 am CET (4:30 am ET, 9:30 am London time) by the ifo Institute in Munich. The survey covers business sentiment among German firms during December 2026 and is one of the most closely watched leading indicators for the eurozone’s largest economy. Full schedule and background: Germany Ifo Business Climate.
What is the Ifo Business Climate index?
The Ifo Business Climate index is a monthly survey of around 9,000 German companies across manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services. Firms are asked to rate their current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. The two components are combined into a single headline figure, expressed as an index level rather than a percentage, with values above the historical average signalling optimism and values below it signalling caution.
Because it is a survey rather than hard output data, the Ifo index tends to move ahead of official figures such as industrial production or GDP, which is why economists, the Bundesbank and the European Central Bank treat it as an early warning signal for turning points in the German economy. A sharp swing in the index, particularly in the expectations component, often prompts discussion of whether momentum is building or fading in Europe’s manufacturing and export sector.
The index also feeds into currency and bond market pricing. Since Germany accounts for a large share of eurozone output, weak or strong Ifo readings can move the euro and shift expectations for European Central Bank policy, with knock-on effects for borrowing costs across the currency bloc.
When is the December Ifo Business Climate index released?
The ifo Institute publishes the December reading on Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 10:30 am CET (4:30 am ET, 9:30 am London). The release appears on the ifo Institute’s official Business Climate Index page and is distributed simultaneously to data providers and news wires.
What is the consensus forecast?
A precise consensus for the December 2026 release had not been widely published at the time of writing, but the pattern from recent releases gives a guide. According to FXStreet, analysts had expected the headline index to edge higher to around 88.2, from a prior reading near 88.1, with the Current Assessment component seen ticking up to about 85.7 and the Expectations component easing slightly to around 90.5.

Measure
Prior (November 2026)
Consensus (December 2026)

Business Climate (headline)
88.1
88.2

Current Assessment
85.6
85.7

Expectations
90.6
90.5

These figures should be treated as indicative rather than final, since consensus estimates can shift in the days before release as new data and surveys arrive.
What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Euro could firm and eurozone bond yields may tick up, as traders read stronger sentiment as reducing the case for further ECB rate cuts
German firms feel more confident about current trading and the outlook, which historically points to steadier factory output and hiring in the following months

In line with consensus
Muted reaction, with attention shifting quickly to other eurozone data due the same day
Business mood is developing broadly as expected, offering no fresh signal about the direction of the German economy

Below consensus
Euro could soften and some traders may add to bets on further ECB easing, as weak sentiment reinforces concerns about German industry
Firms are more pessimistic than expected, which can be an early sign of softer investment, hiring or export orders ahead

These are possible market reactions discussed by analysts, not predictions, and actual moves depend on other data released the same day and the broader tone of markets at the time.
Why does this release matter right now?
Germany’s Ifo index has spent much of 2026 recovering slowly from a weak patch in late 2025, when the headline reading fell to its lowest level since May of that year, according to ING research cited alongside the December 2025 print. Ifo president Clemens Fuest has repeatedly flagged that firms remain cautious about trade uncertainty and export demand even as domestic conditions have shown some improvement, a theme echoed in commentary from Trading Economics around the February 2026 reading, which noted stronger domestic demand and fiscal stimulus supporting sentiment.
The European Central Bank watches the Ifo survey closely alongside hard data such as industrial output and the eurozone HICP inflation figures, because it offers an early read on whether the currency bloc’s largest economy is gaining or losing momentum. With the ECB weighing whether further rate cuts are needed in 2026, a run of Ifo readings that surprises in either direction can shift market expectations for the path of eurozone interest rates.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and borrowing costs: A stronger than expected Ifo reading can nudge eurozone bond yields higher, which over time can feed into mortgage and loan rates in Germany and other eurozone countries. A weak reading can have the opposite effect, supporting expectations of lower rates.
Savings: Savers in the eurozone should watch whether weak sentiment data adds to expectations of further European Central Bank rate cuts, which would tend to lower returns on savings accounts and deposits over time.
Jobs and wages: The Ifo survey’s expectations component is watched as an early signal for hiring intentions in German manufacturing and services, sectors that also support demand for goods and workers across the wider European supply chain, including in the UK and Central Europe.
Prices: Business sentiment does not directly set prices, but persistent weakness in German industry can weigh on demand for imported goods, including from UK and Asian exporters, while a stronger reading can support demand and pricing power.
Investments, pensions and currencies: European equity markets, particularly German-listed exporters and industrial firms, often react to the Ifo release, and any move in the euro against the dollar and pound can affect the value of European holdings in pension funds and investment portfolios held in the UK and elsewhere.

Related events

Germany Ifo Business Climate, November 2026
Eurozone HICP inflation data, released around the same period each month
European Central Bank monetary policy decisions, which weigh survey data such as the Ifo index alongside hard economic figures

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the December Ifo Business Climate index released?
It is released at 10:30 am CET (4:30 am ET, 9:30 am London time) on Thursday, December 17, 2026 by the ifo Institute.
How should I read the Ifo Business Climate index?
Higher readings signal improving business sentiment in Germany, while lower readings signal caution or pessimism among firms about current conditions and the six-month outlook.
Does the Ifo index affect interest rates?
It does not set rates directly, but the European Central Bank and market participants use it as one input when judging the strength of the eurozone economy and the likely path of monetary policy.
Where can I find the official Ifo release?
The official data is published on the ifo Institute’s Business Climate Index page.
When is the next Ifo Business Climate release?
The next release covers January 2027 data and is typically published in the final week of that month, following the ifo Institute’s usual monthly schedule.
← Previous Germany Ifo Business Climate

Bank of England MPC Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-17 07:00 - 08:00 (America/New_York)
Next Bank of England MPC Rate Decision: Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 12:00 pm GMT (7:00 am ET, 12:00 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Bank of England MPC Rate Decision.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Bank of England MPC Rate Decision
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its final interest rate decision of 2026 on Thursday, December 17, 2026, at 12:00 GMT. The MPC will simultaneously publish its monetary policy summary and minutes, providing a detailed explanation of the decision and the votes cast by each of the nine committee members. The Bank Rate currently stands at 3.75%, following three 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 (May, August, and December) and a series of holds in 2026 amid elevated inflation driven by energy price pressures. Forecasts from major institutions suggest 1-2 further cuts are expected in 2026, potentially taking the Bank Rate to 3.00%-3.25% by year-end.
The Bank of England and the MPC
The Bank of England (the BoE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Its Monetary Policy Committee was established under the Bank of England Act 1998, which granted the BoE operational independence over monetary policy. The MPC consists of nine members: the Governor, three Deputy Governors, the Chief Economist, and four external members appointed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Decisions are made by simple majority vote, with the Governor having a casting vote in the event of a tie. Each member’s vote is published alongside the decision, making the BoE’s internal policy debate more transparent than most other major central banks.
The MPC meets eight times per year, with four of those meetings producing a Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which includes updated staff forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment in addition to the rate decision: February, May, August, and November. December is not an MPR meeting, meaning the December 17 decision will not be accompanied by new forecasts. The MPC’s primary target is CPI inflation at 2%, set by the UK government, with the MPC required to write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining any deviation above 3% or below 1%.
MPC December Meeting: December 17, 2026
The December 17 meeting is the MPC’s final decision of 2026. By this point, the committee will have data through November 2026 for UK CPI, GDP, wage growth, and employment, as well as the November MPR forecasts published in November. The December decision will effectively confirm whether the BoE has delivered the expected 1-2 cuts for 2026 within the year, or whether any easing has been pushed into 2027.
The MPC’s recent voting record has reflected significant internal divisions. In February 2026, the committee voted 5-4 to hold (with four members preferring a cut to 3.50%), then unanimously held in March, then voted 8-1 in April (with one member preferring a hike to 4.00%). This spread of views reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the UK’s current Bank Rate of 3.75% is too restrictive (risking unnecessary economic weakness) or not restrictive enough (risking persistent inflation). By December 2026, many of these uncertainties should have resolved based on the actual data flow. The decision will be announced at 12:00 GMT on December 17.
What to Expect
Market forecasters broadly expect the Bank of England to deliver 1-2 rate cuts in 2026, with a potential year-end Bank Rate of 3.25%-3.00%. Whether December 2026 is one of those cut meetings depends on how UK inflation and growth have evolved through the year. Key factors include: the trajectory of UK CPI, which has been influenced by the same Middle East energy price shock affecting global inflation; UK wage growth, which has been running above the BoE’s comfort zone; and UK GDP growth, which has been subdued relative to the post-pandemic recovery.
The BoE’s task is complicated by the UK’s openness to energy price shocks and the fact that UK inflation tends to be stickier in services sectors, where wage growth is a dominant input cost. The Bank of England MPC Rate Decision June 2026 (June 18) is the most recent decision available at the time of writing, and subsequent MPC meetings (July 30, September 17, November 5) will collectively determine how close the BoE is to cutting by December.
Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Bank Rate
Vote

May 2025
-25bp
4.25%
n/v

Aug 2025
-25bp
4.00%
n/v

Dec 2025
-25bp
3.75%
n/v

Feb 2026
Hold
3.75%
5-4

Mar 2026
Hold
3.75%
9-0

Apr 2026
Hold
3.75%
8-1 (1 hike)

Jun 2026
TBD (Jun 18)
TBD
TBD

Dec 2026
TBD (Dec 17)
TBD
TBD

Sources: Bank of England; Cambridge Currencies. “n/v” = vote not yet verified. 3 cuts of 25bp each in 2025 from 4.50% to 3.75%. Feb 2026 vote: 5 hold, 4 cut. Apr 2026 vote: 8 hold, 1 hike.
Market Impact Scenarios

Cut (25bp) – A December cut to 3.50%, if not already priced, would boost gilts (UK government bonds), weaken sterling modestly, and support rate-sensitive sectors in UK equities. It would confirm that the BoE has delivered at least one cut in 2026 and signal confidence that inflation has returned sufficiently close to the 2% target.
Hold – A hold at 3.75% for December would represent a full year without a rate change in 2026, pushing the first cut expectation into 2027. Sterling might strengthen modestly on the hawkish signal. UK equities in growth and consumer sectors could underperform as rate-sensitive valuations remain compressed. Gilts would come under modest pressure.
Hike – A hike, favoured by one dissenting member in April 2026, would be a significant surprise. It would suggest UK inflation has re-accelerated enough to warrant tightening rather than easing. Sterling would strengthen sharply, gilt yields would rise, and equities would sell off.

Press Conference and Forward Guidance
The December 17 decision will be accompanied by the release of the MPC minutes, which set out each member’s reasoning and the committee’s overall assessment of the UK economic outlook. Because December is not an MPR meeting, there is no press conference in the traditional sense; instead, the Governor and Chief Economist may give speeches or media interviews in the days following the decision to provide additional context. Markets will focus on the vote breakdown and the language in the minutes regarding the committee’s forward guidance on the pace and extent of future rate changes.
For 2027 rate expectations, December 2026 minutes language around whether the BoE sees “a gradual approach to removing policy restriction” (as used in earlier communications) will be central. Any change in that framing, either towards more rapid easing or more prolonged caution, would be a significant market signal for gilt and sterling positioning heading into the new year.
Related Events

Bank of England MPC Rate Decision June 2026 – The most recent BoE decision available at time of writing; sets the current rate policy context.
FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The US Fed’s June decision shapes the transatlantic rate differential that influences sterling and gilt market dynamics.
ECB Rate Decision June 2026 – The ECB’s June 11 decision reflects the broader European monetary policy context that informs BoE thinking on imported inflation and trade conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bank Rate and how does it affect UK consumers?
The Bank Rate is the interest rate the Bank of England pays on commercial banks’ reserves held at the BoE. It serves as the benchmark for UK money market rates and directly influences mortgage rates, savings rates, and borrowing costs. A Bank Rate cut reduces borrowing costs for households and businesses, supporting economic activity. A hike raises borrowing costs, cooling spending and investment. The 3.75% Bank Rate translates into variable mortgage rates typically 1-2 percentage points above it, depending on the lender’s spread.
When will the Bank of England December 2026 decision be announced?
The MPC will publish its monetary policy decision at 12:00 GMT on Thursday, December 17, 2026. The full monetary policy summary and voting minutes will be released simultaneously. December is not a Monetary Policy Report (MPR) meeting, so no new staff economic forecasts will be published alongside the decision.
How does the MPC’s transparent voting record affect markets?
Unlike many central banks, the Bank of England publishes each MPC member’s vote immediately with the decision. This transparency means markets can track shifts in individual members’ views between meetings, providing signals of future policy direction. A shift from, say, a 5-4 hold to a 7-2 hold signals that fewer members are advocating for a cut, which is hawkish. The vote breakdown is often as market-moving as the headline decision itself.

ECB Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-17 07:45 - 08:45 (America/New_York)
Next ECB Rate Decision: Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 1:45 pm CET (7:45 am ET, 12:45 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: ECB Rate Decision.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous ECB Rate Decision
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council will announce its final monetary policy decision of 2026 on Thursday, December 17, 2026, at 13:45 CET. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will follow at 14:30 CET. December is a quarterly projection meeting, meaning updated Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the eurozone, covering inflation, GDP, and unemployment through 2028, will be released alongside the rate decision. This makes December one of the most significant ECB meetings of the year, equivalent to the Federal Reserve’s December SEP meeting. The deposit facility rate currently stands at 2.00%, with the June 2026 meeting widely expected to have delivered a hike to 2.25% in response to energy-driven inflation. The December meeting will close out the 2026 policy cycle and set the ECB’s forward guidance for 2027.
The European Central Bank and Its Mandate
The European Central Bank (the ECB) is the monetary authority for the 20-nation euro area, with a primary mandate of price stability defined as headline HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) inflation close to but below 2% over the medium term. The Governing Council, comprising the six Executive Board members and 20 national central bank governors, meets approximately every six weeks in Frankfurt. The deposit facility rate, currently 2.00%, is the ECB’s primary operational policy rate, influencing overnight interbank lending rates and, by extension, borrowing costs across the eurozone.
December is one of four quarterly projection meetings alongside March, June, and September. At these meetings, the ECB’s economics staff publish new macroeconomic projections covering the next three years, providing markets with the ECB’s formal view on the inflation and growth trajectory. The December projections are particularly important because they establish the starting point for 2027 policy expectations. Any significant revision to the inflation forecast, whether up or down, will drive re-pricing across eurozone bond markets, equities, and the euro exchange rate.
ECB December Meeting: December 17, 2026
The December 17 Governing Council meeting arrives after a full year of data following the ECB’s pivot from cutting to potentially tightening in mid-2026. If the ECB hiked to 2.25% in June and potentially further at subsequent meetings, December will determine whether the tightening cycle has reached its terminal rate or whether further adjustments are needed. If inflation has returned convincingly towards 2% by year-end, December could mark the beginning of a new easing cycle with either a hold and dovish language or an outright cut.
The ECB’s June 2026 projection revision to 2.6% average HICP inflation for 2026 set a hawkish tone for the year. If the December staff projections show 2027 inflation converging to 2.0%-2.1%, the ECB will likely signal an end to tightening and a return to neutral. If the projections show persistent above-target inflation into 2027, the ECB may maintain a tighter bias. The decision and projections will be announced simultaneously at 13:45 CET, with President Lagarde’s press conference at 14:30 CET. Note that December 17, 2026 is also the Bank of England’s final MPC decision day of the year.
What to Expect
By December 2026, the ECB’s policy trajectory will have been shaped by six earlier meetings in the year (June, July, September, October, plus whatever preceded the end of the cycle). The most likely December scenario, assuming a June hike was delivered, involves either a second hike or a hold with neutral forward guidance. If the full summer and autumn data flow has demonstrated that the energy price shock was temporary and core inflation remained well-anchored, a December return to a neutral or easing bias is possible, particularly if the Staff Projections show 2027 inflation at or below 2%.
ECB communication from President Lagarde and Governing Council members during the October-December period will give markets strong advance signals. The ECB Rate Decision June 2026 and subsequent September and October Governing Council decisions will collectively set the trajectory that December confirms or adjusts.
Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Deposit Rate
Notes

Mar 2026
Hold
2.00%
Inflation forecast 2.6%

Apr 2026
Hold
2.00%
Stagflation risk cited

Jun 2026
TBD (Jun 11, projections)
TBD (mkt: 2.25%)
98% hike probability

Jul 2026
TBD
TBD
Non-projection meeting

Sep 2026
TBD (projections)
TBD
Quarterly projections

Oct 2026
TBD
TBD
Non-projection meeting

Dec 2026
TBD (Dec 17, projections)
TBD
This meeting; year-end SEP

Sources: European Central Bank; CNBC; Central Banking. Market probability data from ECB-Watch (early June 2026). Deposit rate is the ECB deposit facility rate.
Market Impact Scenarios

Hold with dovish projections – A hold at the year-end rate level, accompanied by staff projections showing 2027 inflation at 2.0% and a dovish Lagarde press conference, would signal the end of the tightening cycle. The euro would weaken modestly, eurozone bonds would rally, and equities would receive a tailwind from reduced borrowing cost expectations heading into 2027.
Cut (25bp) – A year-end rate cut would signal the ECB is confident the energy-driven inflation shock has passed. This would be strongly positive for eurozone equities and bonds, and would weaken the euro against the dollar and pound.
Hold with hawkish projections – If staff projections show inflation remaining above 2% through 2027, a hold with hawkish language would push eurozone bond yields higher, strengthen the euro, and pressure rate-sensitive equities. Markets would reprice the 2027 terminal rate higher.

Press Conference and Forward Guidance
The December press conference at 14:30 CET is among the ECB’s most widely followed of the year. In addition to the rate decision and staff projections, Lagarde will provide the Governing Council’s assessment of the eurozone’s economic trajectory heading into 2027. The press conference will be parsed for any changes to the ECB’s characterisation of inflation risks as “balanced” versus “tilted to the upside”, and for any guidance on the pace and extent of future rate adjustments.
Alongside the projections, the December meeting often produces revised long-run neutral rate estimates for the euro area, which carry significant implications for how deep any future cutting cycle might go. The ECB’s 2026 full-year record on inflation outcomes will be central to how credibly Lagarde can claim that the 2% target is within reach on a sustained basis, and the market response to the press conference will reflect that credibility assessment.
Related Events

ECB Rate Decision June 2026 – The June 11 projection meeting is the closest preceding comparable ECB decision including staff forecasts.
FOMC Rate Decision June 2026 – The US Fed’s year-end December 9 meeting (two meetings ahead in December 2026) provides the global central bank context surrounding the ECB’s December 17 decision.
Bank of England MPC Rate Decision June 2026 – December 17 is also the BoE’s final 2026 MPC meeting, creating an unusual confluence of G3 central bank decisions on the same day.

Frequently Asked Questions
Why is December particularly significant for the ECB?
December is one of four quarterly projection meetings (alongside March, June, and September) at which the ECB publishes updated Staff Macroeconomic Projections covering inflation, GDP, and unemployment for the next three years. It is the final opportunity in 2026 for the ECB to adjust its projections and policy stance before the new year, and markets use the December projections as the primary forward-guidance input for positioning in eurozone assets through the following year.
When will the ECB December 2026 decision be announced?
The Governing Council will publish its monetary policy decision at 13:45 CET on Thursday, December 17, 2026. The updated Staff Macroeconomic Projections will be released simultaneously. President Lagarde’s press conference will begin at 14:30 CET (7:45 a.m. EDT).
What is the ECB Transmission Protection Instrument?
The Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) is an ECB tool, introduced in July 2022, designed to prevent unwarranted or disorderly widening of sovereign bond spreads within the euro area that could impair the transmission of monetary policy. In practice, it allows the ECB to buy the government bonds of member states facing unwarranted spread widening, without pre-set limits. During periods of ECB tightening, the TPI provides a backstop against fragmentation, where peripheral economies (such as Italy or Spain) might face disproportionately higher borrowing costs relative to Germany. Its activation remains conditional on recipient countries complying with EU fiscal rules.

US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) December 2026
2026-12-17 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts): Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts)
US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) December 2026: Preview
The US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) are scheduled to publish the New Residential Construction report for November 2026 on 17 December 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The monthly release covers housing starts, building permits, and housing completions, offering one of the most comprehensive snapshots of US homebuilding activity available.
Housing starts in 2026 have been characterised by volatility. After a strong March, when starts hit 1,507,000 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) — the highest level since December 2024 — April saw a pullback to 1,465,000 SAAR as elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on single-family construction. The November 2026 report, covering the autumn selling season, will indicate whether builders have adjusted their output in response to demand signals or whether the broader housing market slowdown has deepened.
The December release is also significant in the context of ongoing debates about US housing supply. With affordability under sustained pressure and rental vacancy rates remaining tight, policymakers and housing economists will be watching November’s starts and permits data closely for signs of sustained construction momentum heading into 2027.
What the New Residential Construction Report Is and Why It Matters
The New Residential Construction report is a joint publication of the US Census Bureau and HUD, released on the 12th working day of each month. It draws on a survey of builders and contractors to estimate the number of new housing units started, permitted, and completed during the reference month, expressed as seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR).
The three main indicators in the report are:

Housing starts: The number of new residential units on which construction has begun. Considered the headline figure and a key indicator of homebuilder confidence and near-term construction activity.
Building permits: Authorisations issued for new residential units. As a leading indicator, permits signal future starts activity over a one-to-three-month horizon.
Housing completions: The number of units where construction has been finished. A lagging indicator that reflects the pipeline of homes moving toward the for-sale or rental market.

Each indicator is further broken down by housing type: single-family (one-unit structures) and multi-family (two or more units, predominantly apartment buildings). Single-family starts are more closely tied to the for-sale housing market and mortgage rates; multi-family starts reflect rental demand and developer financing conditions.
Because residential construction accounts for a significant share of US GDP and employs millions of workers in construction, materials, and related services, the monthly housing starts report has broad macroeconomic implications beyond the property market alone.
Housing Starts Trend: Recent Readings
US housing starts have been trending in a narrow range through 2026, with month-to-month swings driven by weather, mortgage rate movements, and shifting builder sentiment.

Release Date
Reference Month
Total Starts (SAAR)
Single-Family (SAAR)
MoM Change

February 2026
January 2026
1,487,000
—
+7.2%

May 2026
March 2026
1,507,000
1,022,000
+10.8%

June 2026
April 2026
1,465,000
930,000
-2.8%

17 Dec 2026
November 2026
Consensus TBC
Consensus TBC
—

March 2026 was the standout month, with total starts reaching 1,507,000 SAAR — a level not seen since December 2024 — following a 10.8% month-over-month surge. April’s reading of 1,465,000 SAAR represented a partial pullback, with single-family starts falling 9.0% to 930,000 as builders pulled back in the face of sustained mortgage rate pressure. Multi-family starts moved in the opposite direction in April, rising 14.3% to 529,000 SAAR as rental demand remained firm.
Building permits in April 2026 reached 1,442,000 SAAR, up 5.8% from March’s revised 1,363,000 — a signal that builders retained confidence in demand even as starts dipped. Completions came in at 1,449,000 SAAR in April, 4.8% above March’s revised figure.
Historically, US housing starts have averaged approximately 1,431,000 units since records began in 1959. Long-run forecasts from TradingEconomics project starts declining to around 1,290,000–1,350,000 by 2027-2028 as mortgage rates remain above historical averages and affordability constraints persist.
What to Watch on 17 December 2026
The December 2026 release will be dissected for several signals:
Single-family vs. multi-family split. The divergence between single-family and multi-family starts has been a defining feature of the 2026 housing market. A recovery in single-family starts in November would suggest builders are finding buyers despite elevated mortgage rates. Continued strength in multi-family would reflect sustained rental demand but does not necessarily translate to improved homeownership affordability.
Building permits as a leading indicator. Permits issued in November will indicate the pipeline of starts expected in December and January 2027. A significant drop in permits would be a cautionary signal for the near-term construction outlook; a rise would suggest builders are committing to new units despite uncertain demand conditions.
Regional breakdown. The New Residential Construction report includes regional data for the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. The South typically accounts for the largest share of US starts; a marked shift in the regional mix can indicate weather disruptions, local demand trends, or regulatory factors affecting specific markets.
Completions and the supply pipeline. Housing completions in November will indicate how many units are being delivered to buyers and renters. High completions alongside soft starts would signal a drawdown of the construction pipeline — a potential supply constraint for 2027. Low completions despite strong permits would point to ongoing labour and materials delays.
Mortgage rate context. The November 2026 housing data will have been collected during a period defined by prevailing mortgage rates. If rates eased materially during the autumn, November’s starts should reflect improved builder and buyer sentiment. If rates remained elevated, subdued single-family starts would be expected.
Market Reaction
Housing starts data have a moderate but meaningful impact on financial markets, particularly when they diverge significantly from consensus:

Equities: Homebuilder stocks (such as D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup) tend to react directly to starts and permits data. A strong November report would lift builder sentiment; a weak reading could weigh on the sector. Materials and home improvement retailers are also sensitive to the report.
Treasuries: Housing starts are an input into broader GDP and growth expectations. A strong starts report can push bond yields slightly higher on improved growth signals; a weak report can support Treasuries as a safe haven.
Mortgage-backed securities: Housing market health directly affects prepayment expectations and credit quality for mortgage-backed securities, making the starts report relevant to fixed-income investors beyond plain-vanilla Treasuries.
US Dollar: Housing data rarely moves the dollar on its own, but in combination with the December CPI and PPI releases scheduled for the same week, cumulative inflation and growth signals could influence dollar positioning ahead of year-end.

How Housing Starts Fit into the Broader US Economic Picture
The November 2026 housing starts data arrives in the final weeks of a year defined by competing forces for US residential construction. On one hand, elevated mortgage rates — which have remained above 7% for most of 2026 — have constrained affordability and tempered demand for new single-family homes. On the other, a persistent shortage of existing homes for sale has kept demand for new builds relatively supported, even as buyer purchasing power has been eroded.
The broader macroeconomic context is shaped by the Federal Reserve’s rate cycle. With inflation still above target and the Fed navigating when to begin easing policy, the December 2026 housing starts report feeds directly into the economic dataset the FOMC reviews before its year-end decision. The FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 follows closely, meaning housing data released the same week will inform market expectations for the policy statement.
Longer-term, the US housing market faces structural undersupply. Decades of underbuilding relative to household formation have created a deficit of units, particularly in the affordable price range. Whether homebuilders can ramp up production sustainably — despite elevated land, labour, and materials costs — remains one of the defining questions for US housing over the next several years. Monthly starts data like the November 2026 report are the key measure of whether progress is being made.
The US New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) November 2026 report, released on 18 November, provides the immediate comparison point. Analysts will assess whether November’s figures confirm a stabilisation trend or reflect fresh softness in residential construction activity. The US CPI Report December 2026, also due mid-month, will add further context to the broader inflation and rate environment shaping builder and buyer decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the New Residential Construction report measure?
The report measures housing starts, building permits, and housing completions for new residential units. It is published jointly by the US Census Bureau and HUD, covering both single-family and multi-family residential construction activity.
When is the November 2026 housing starts report released?
The Census Bureau is scheduled to release the November 2026 New Residential Construction data on 17 December 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (13:30 GMT).
What is a housing start?
A housing start is recorded when excavation begins for the foundation of a new residential structure. It is the earliest point in the construction process captured by the monthly report and is considered the headline measure of homebuilding activity.
Why do building permits matter?
Building permits are a leading indicator of housing starts. Builders typically obtain a permit before breaking ground, so a rise in permits signals increased construction activity in the coming months. A drop in permits can foreshadow a slowdown in starts one to three months later.
How do interest rates affect housing starts?
Higher mortgage rates raise monthly borrowing costs for homebuyers, reducing affordability and demand. This can cause builders to slow new project starts. Conversely, when rates fall, buyer demand typically increases and builders respond by starting more new homes. The FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 will be watched closely for signals about the rate path into 2027.

US Initial Jobless Claims: December 17, 2026
2026-12-17 08:30 - 09:30 (America/New_York)
Next US Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Pending (week ending December 5, 2026 release)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 12, 2026 are released on Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm London) by the US Department of Labor. The figure counts how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in that week and is the most timely gauge of layoffs in the US labour market. Full schedule and background: US Initial Jobless Claims.
What is the consensus forecast?
As of writing, a consensus forecast for the week ending December 12, 2026 has not yet been published. Economists’ estimates for weekly claims are typically released only a day or two before the report, through surveys such as those run by Reuters and Bloomberg. Through most of 2026, initial claims have run broadly in a 200,000 to 235,000 range, according to data published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED). The prior week’s reading, covering the week ending December 5, 2026, is due for release on December 10, 2026, and will set the baseline for this report.

Measure
Prior
Consensus

Initial claims
Pending (week ending December 5, 2026 release)
Not yet published

Continuing claims
Pending (lagged by one week)
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
Plain-English meaning

Above consensus
Bond yields may fall, stocks could see rate-cut hopes rise
More people filing for benefits than expected, a sign the labour market is cooling faster than thought

In line with consensus
Limited market reaction
The labour market is behaving roughly as expected, no fresh signal for the Federal Reserve

Below consensus
Yields may rise, dollar could firm
Fewer layoffs than expected, suggesting the jobs market remains resilient

Why it matters this week
Weekly claims are one of the few real-time indicators of hiring and firing available to the Federal Reserve, and policymakers watch them closely between the monthly non-farm payrolls reports. A run of low, stable claims has generally supported the view that the US labour market remains resilient even as growth has slowed, while any sustained rise towards the mid-200,000s or beyond would be read as an early warning sign of weakening demand for workers. Because this report lands in the run-up to the Fed’s final policy decisions of the year, traders will use it, alongside continuing claims, to gauge whether the central bank has room to keep cutting interest rates or needs to hold steady.
The reading also feeds into sentiment beyond US borders. A weaker US labour market typically weighs on the dollar, which can lift the pound and euro, while a resilient reading tends to support the dollar and can pressure European and Asian currencies and export-sensitive stocks.
What It Means for Your Money
Jobless claims move quickly, but they matter for anyone with a mortgage, savings account or pension. A run of higher-than-expected claims tends to push bond yields down, which can eventually feed through to lower mortgage rates, though banks usually take weeks to adjust pricing. It can also nudge the Federal Reserve towards cutting interest rates sooner, which would gradually reduce returns on cash savings accounts.
For pensions and investments, weak claims data can unsettle stock markets in the short term if it signals a slowing economy, but it can also boost bond and equity prices longer term if investors expect lower interest rates. If you hold US dollar assets or are planning travel or purchases in dollars, sharp moves in claims data can shift the pound-dollar and euro-dollar exchange rates within minutes of the 8:30 am ET release.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time are jobless claims released on December 17, 2026?
The US Department of Labor publishes the figures at 8:30 am ET, which is 1:30 pm in London.
What counts as a big miss versus consensus?
Moves of more than around 15,000 to 20,000 above or below the consensus forecast are generally seen as significant enough to shift market expectations for the Federal Reserve.
When is the next jobless claims report?
The next weekly report follows on Thursday, December 24, 2026, covering the week ending December 19, 2026, unless the holiday schedule shifts the release date.
Where does this data come from?
The figures come from state unemployment insurance offices and are compiled and published weekly by the US Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration.
← Previous US Initial Jobless Claims

Japan CPI December 2026
2026-12-17 18:30 - 19:30 (America/New_York)
Next Japan CPI: Friday, December 18, 2026 at 8:30 am JST (6:30 pm ET, 11:30 pm London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Not yet confirmed from the official October 2026 release
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Japan CPI.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous Japan CPI
Japan’s national Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2026 is released on Friday, December 18, 2026, at 8:30 am Japan Standard Time, which is 6:30 pm ET on December 17 and 11:30 pm in London on the same evening. The data is published by Japan’s Statistics Bureau, part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Full schedule and background: Japan CPI.
What is the Japan CPI?
The Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services, from food and energy to housing, transport, healthcare and education. It is Japan’s primary gauge of inflation and the figure the Bank of Japan (BOJ) watches most closely when setting interest rate policy.
The Statistics Bureau publishes three versions of the index each month: the headline CPI, “core CPI” which strips out fresh food because its prices swing sharply with weather and harvests, and “core-core CPI” which also excludes energy. The BOJ’s 2% inflation target is defined against the core measure, so core CPI tends to attract the most attention from traders, economists and journalists.
Markets watch this release because Japan spent decades battling deflation, and any sustained move in core inflation shapes expectations for whether the BOJ will raise, hold or adjust its policy rate. Because Japan is a major exporter and the yen is one of the world’s most traded currencies, the release also moves foreign exchange and bond markets well beyond Tokyo.
When is the November CPI released?
The November 2026 national CPI is scheduled for release on December 18, 2026, at 8:30 am local time, published on the Statistics Bureau of Japan’s website. This date is confirmed rather than estimated, following the bureau’s normal monthly schedule of releasing national CPI data roughly three weeks after the reference month ends. The previous release, covering October 2026 data, is available at Japan CPI November 2026.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, a consensus forecast for the November 2026 reading has not yet been published by major polling services such as Reuters or Bloomberg. Economist forecasts typically emerge in the days immediately before the release, once October’s Tokyo CPI figures (an early proxy for the national number) are available. Similarly, the prior reading for October 2026 national CPI has not yet been independently confirmed from the official release at the time this page was prepared; readers should check the Statistics Bureau of Japan release directly for the confirmed October figures once published.

Measure
Prior (October 2026)
Consensus (November 2026)

Headline CPI (YoY)
Not yet confirmed
Not yet published

Core CPI, ex fresh food (YoY)
Not yet confirmed
Not yet published

This page will be updated once official figures and a published consensus become available.
What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Yen could firm and Japanese government bond yields could rise, as traders price a higher chance of BOJ tightening
Prices are rising faster than expected, which could bring the BOJ closer to raising interest rates

In line with consensus
Limited immediate market reaction, since the data confirms the existing policy path
Inflation is behaving roughly as expected, so no sudden change is likely from the BOJ

Below consensus
Yen could soften and expectations for BOJ tightening could be pushed further out
Prices are rising more slowly than expected, reducing pressure on the BOJ to raise rates soon

These are possible market reactions described by analysts, not predictions of how the data will land.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of Japan has spent the past two years cautiously moving away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy, gradually raising its policy rate from near zero as inflation persisted above its 2% target for an extended period, according to commentary from banks such as ING and Standard Chartered covering earlier 2026 releases. Each CPI print feeds directly into the BOJ’s assessment of whether wage growth and services prices are strong enough to justify further rate increases, or whether cost pressures are fading enough to keep policy on hold.
Energy and food prices have been particularly volatile through 2026, with government subsidy changes and swings in global commodity markets adding noise to the headline number, a pattern flagged repeatedly in Trading Economics’ coverage of Japan’s monthly releases. Because of this, economists tend to focus on the core-core measure, which strips out these swings, to judge the underlying trend in domestic inflation.
What It Means for Your Money
Mortgages and borrowing: for homeowners in Japan, a hotter-than-expected CPI print raises the odds of further BOJ rate rises, which could push up variable mortgage rates over time. Outside Japan, this matters mainly through global bond markets, since Japanese investors are large holders of foreign government debt.
Savings: Japanese savers have seen little return on deposits for years; a sustained rise in the BOJ’s policy rate would be the first step toward meaningfully higher savings rates domestically.
Jobs and wages: persistent inflation above target puts pressure on Japanese employers to keep raising wages, which the BOJ watches as a sign that inflation is becoming self-sustaining rather than temporary.
Currencies: the yen tends to react quickly to CPI surprises. A stronger yen makes imports cheaper for Japanese households but can hurt exporters’ profits, while a weaker yen has the opposite effect and can push up import costs, including for energy and food.
Investments and pensions: Japanese equities and bonds, along with funds that hold them, can move on the data. Investors outside Japan holding global or Asia-focused funds may see some impact, particularly if the yen moves sharply against the dollar or the pound.
Related events

Previous release: Japan CPI November 2026, covering October 2026 data
Full Japan CPI schedule and history: Japan CPI
Bank of Japan policy decisions, which respond directly to these inflation readings

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Japan CPI for November 2026 released?
It is released at 8:30 am Japan Standard Time on December 18, 2026, which is 6:30 pm ET the previous evening and 11:30 pm in London.
How do I read the headline versus core CPI figures?
Headline CPI includes all items, core CPI excludes fresh food, and core-core CPI excludes both fresh food and energy; the BOJ’s 2% target refers to the core measure.
How does this release affect Bank of Japan interest rate decisions?
Persistently high core inflation increases the likelihood the BOJ will raise or maintain higher interest rates, while a slowdown reduces pressure for further tightening.
How does this release affect Bank of Japan interest rate decisions?
Persistently high core inflation increases the likelihood the BOJ will raise or maintain higher interest rates, while a slowdown reduces pressure for further tightening.
Where can I find the official release?
The data is published directly by the Statistics Bureau of Japan.
When is the next Japan CPI release after this one?
The following national CPI release, covering December 2026 data, is typically published around three weeks into the following month, in line with the Statistics Bureau’s regular schedule.
← Previous Japan CPI

Bank of Japan Rate Decision December 2026
2026-12-18 00:00 - 23:59 UTC
Next Bank of Japan Rate Decision: Friday, December 18, 2026 at 12:00 pm JST (10:00 pm ET, 3:00 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: Bank of Japan Rate Decision.
Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous Bank of Japan Rate Decision
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its final 2026 monetary policy decision on Friday, 18 December 2026. The Policy Board meets over two days (17-18 December), with “The Bank’s View” statement released on 18 December. December 2026 is a non-Quarterly Outlook Report meeting but is historically significant as the last decision of the year, often setting the tone for monetary policy heading into 2027. As of June 2026, the BoJ is in a gradual tightening cycle, with the policy rate at 0.75%, moving toward a previously indicated target of around 1.0%.
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision: December 18, 2026
December’s meeting is the eighth and final scheduled monetary policy meeting of 2026. It comes after the October Quarterly Outlook Report, which will have provided the most recent comprehensive update on the BoJ’s economic and inflation forecasts. By December, the Policy Board will have assessed the full body of data from throughout 2026: the outcomes of previous rate decisions, the trajectory of core CPI, wage dynamics, growth indicators, and global conditions.
December 2025 was itself a significant meeting, delivering the hike from 0.50% to 0.75% that initiated the current phase of normalisation. A year on, markets will be watching whether the BoJ delivers another December hike, consolidates a rate already raised to 1.0% at an earlier meeting, or signals a pause heading into 2027.
What to Expect
The December meeting will be shaped by the full year’s accumulated data. By December 2026, the BoJ will have the benefit of Japan’s GDP data through the third quarter, CPI readings through October or November, and a comprehensive view of whether the wage-price cycle established in 2026 has been self-sustaining. The Bank has repeatedly cited the importance of wage growth flowing through to services inflation as the key condition for sustainable 2% inflation.
If the BoJ has progressed to 1.0% by the October meeting or earlier, December’s question will be whether to hold at 1.0% or to signal further normalisation. The Bank’s April 2026 Outlook Report mentioned 1.0% as a direction of travel but did not provide an explicit endpoint for the tightening cycle. By December, the Board may provide clearer guidance on the terminal rate and the pace of any further hikes in 2027.
Global conditions heading into year-end will also factor in. The FOMC will announce its December 2026 decision on 9 December, nine days before the BoJ meeting, providing the most recent read on US policy. Year-end liquidity conditions, yen-dollar dynamics, and any global growth developments from the fourth quarter will inform the BoJ’s final 2026 decision.
The December meeting is also important for its symbolic function as the annual closing statement. The Governor’s press conference will be watched for any indication of the policy path in 2027, including how the Board views the balance of risks between further tightening and the potential economic drag from previous hikes.
Rate Decision History

Date
Decision
Rate
Vote

April 2026
Hold
0.75%
6-3

March 2026
Hold
0.75%
8-1

January 2026
Hold
0.75%
Majority

December 2025
Hike +25bp
0.75%
Majority

October 2025
Hold
0.50%
Majority

July 2025
Hold
0.50%
Majority

June 2025
Hold
0.50%
Majority

January 2025
Hike +25bp
0.50%
Majority

Market Impact Scenarios

Hold with forward guidance on 2027 – A hold in December, following any hikes delivered earlier in the year, would be taken as confirmation that the BoJ has reached a temporary peak and is assessing the impact of previous tightening. The Governor’s language about 2027 policy would be the key market driver. Any suggestion that the tightening cycle is not complete, and that further hikes are expected in 2027, would support yen strength and JGB yield increases.
Hike 25bp (if still at 0.75% or 1.00%) – A year-end hike, following the precedent of the December 2025 move, would be significant and would confirm the BoJ’s commitment to continued normalisation. The yen would strengthen, the Nikkei 225 would fall, and JGB yields would rise. The global carry trade implications would be significant given year-end liquidity conditions and the potential for outsized market moves.
Hold with dovish signals – If economic data through Q3 and Q4 2026 suggests that prior hikes are dampening growth more than expected, the Board may hold in December and soften its forward guidance. This would be taken as a signal that the tightening cycle may be complete or near completion. The yen could weaken, Japanese equities could rally, and JGB yields could ease on the expectation of a prolonged pause or eventual reversal.

Statement and Press Conference
December is a non-Quarterly Outlook Report meeting, so the statement will be shorter than the full publication produced in October. However, the Governor’s press conference takes on added significance as the year-end communications opportunity, and journalists will press for clarity on the rate path in 2027. The Bank’s language about the pace of future normalisation, the conditions it would need to see for further hikes, and any updated assessment of Japan’s economic resilience will be closely parsed.
Any language indicating that the BoJ’s real policy rate remains significantly below the neutral rate would signal continued intent to tighten. Any language suggesting that current rates are already providing meaningful restraint, or that global conditions warrant caution, would signal a more patient approach in 2027.
Related Events

FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 – The Federal Reserve’s December 9 decision, nine days before the BoJ, providing the most recent signal on US monetary policy and the US-Japan rate differential heading into year-end.
Bank of England MPC Rate Decision December 2026 – The BoE’s December 17 decision, the day before the BoJ, providing global context ahead of the final BoJ meeting of 2026.
Bank of Japan Rate Decision October 2026 – The preceding Quarterly Outlook Report decision on 30 October, likely to set the context and direction for December.

Frequently Asked Questions
What has the Bank of Japan’s tightening cycle looked like since 2024?
The BoJ began unwinding decades of ultra-loose monetary policy in March 2024 when it ended its negative interest rate policy. Subsequent hikes brought the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25% in July 2024 and 0.50% in January 2025. After multiple holds in 2025, the Bank hiked again in December 2025, bringing the rate to 0.75%. In 2026, the Bank has been assessing conditions for a further move toward 1.0%, with three consecutive holds in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and elevated dissent within the Policy Board.
When will the December 2026 BoJ decision be announced?
The decision will be released on Friday, 18 December 2026, following the two-day meeting on 17-18 December. The announcement typically occurs around midday JST (3:00-4:00 am GMT), with the Governor’s press conference in the afternoon.
What is the neutral rate for Japan and how close is the BoJ to it?
The BoJ has not published an explicit estimate of Japan’s neutral interest rate, but Deputy Governor statements have suggested it is “significantly higher” than the current policy rate. Academic and market estimates place Japan’s neutral rate in a range of roughly 1.0-2.5%, depending on assumptions about long-run real growth and inflation. At 0.75-1.0%, the BoJ’s policy rate is still below most estimates of neutral, implying that further hikes are likely before policy is considered truly neutral. This provides the theoretical case for continued normalisation in 2027 and beyond.
Featured image: Photo by Clement Souchet on Unsplash.

UK Retail Sales December 2026
2026-12-18 02:00 - 03:00 (America/New_York)
Next UK Retail Sales: Friday, December 18, 2026 at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET, 7:00 am London). Covers November 2026 data.

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Not yet confirmed (October 2026 data)
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: UK Retail Sales.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous UK Retail Sales
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes UK Retail Sales for November 2026 on Friday, December 18, 2026, at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET). The release measures the value and volume of goods sold by UK retailers during November 2026, giving the first hard evidence of how households spent in the run-up to Christmas. Full schedule and background: UK Retail Sales.
What is the UK Retail Sales report?
Retail Sales is a monthly survey run by the ONS covering around 5,000 UK retailers, from supermarkets and department stores to fuel retailers and online sellers. It reports two main figures: the change in sales volumes (the quantity of goods bought, adjusted for price changes) and sales values (the cash amount spent, unadjusted for inflation). Economists focus mainly on volumes because that strips out the effect of rising or falling prices and shows whether people are actually buying more or less.
The headline figure includes fuel, which can be volatile because petrol and diesel prices swing with oil markets. Analysts also watch the “ex-fuel” measure, which excludes automotive fuel and gives a cleaner read on discretionary spending in shops, online and in supermarkets.
Markets watch retail sales because consumer spending makes up roughly 60% of UK GDP. A strong or weak reading feeds directly into the Bank of England’s assessment of demand in the economy and, by extension, its interest rate decisions.
When is the November retail sales report released?
The ONS releases the November 2026 UK Retail Sales bulletin on December 18, 2026, at 7:00 am GMT (2:00 am ET). The data is published on the ONS website as part of its scheduled release calendar. This is the standard timetable: the ONS typically publishes retail sales for a given month around the middle of the following month.
What is the consensus forecast?
At the time of writing, no consensus forecast for the November 2026 retail sales figures had been located in published economist surveys. A consensus forecast has not yet been published; City economists and data providers such as Reuters typically issue their median forecasts in the days immediately before the release. Similarly, the exact prior reading for October 2026 retail sales could not be verified from the ONS’s official release at the time of writing, since that October data print itself was not yet available to search. Readers should check the ONS release calendar or a live economic calendar closer to the date for the confirmed prior figure and consensus.

Measure
Prior (October 2026)
Consensus (November 2026)

Retail sales, month on month (all sectors)
Not yet confirmed
Not yet published

Retail sales ex-fuel, month on month
Not yet confirmed
Not yet published

What the result could mean

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Above consensus
Could be read as a sign of resilient consumer demand, potentially reducing expectations of near-term Bank of England rate cuts
Households spent more than expected, which may keep inflation pressure in shops higher for longer

In line with consensus
Limited market reaction, as the figure would confirm the existing view of the economy
Spending is behaving roughly as economists expected, so little changes for borrowers or savers

Below consensus
Could support the case for the Bank of England to consider rate cuts sooner, according to analysts who track consumer spending as a growth signal
Households are pulling back, which can be a sign people are worried about their finances or facing higher costs elsewhere

These are possibilities discussed by economists and analysts, not predictions of how the data will actually come in.
Why does this release matter right now?
The Bank of England watches consumer spending closely because it is one of the clearest signals of underlying demand in the economy, alongside the labour market and wage growth. Retail sales data for November is particularly significant because it captures the start of the Christmas shopping period, including Black Friday promotions, giving an early signal of how households are approaching the festive season. Retailers, analysts and the Treasury all use this print to gauge consumer confidence heading into the new year, according to commentary from retail industry bodies such as the British Retail Consortium, which publishes its own spending monitor ahead of the official ONS figures.
What It Means for Your Money

Mortgages and borrowing: A stronger than expected retail sales figure can make the Bank of England more cautious about cutting interest rates, which affects the cost of new mortgages and other loans. A weaker figure can have the opposite effect.
Savings: Interest rates on savings accounts tend to track the Bank of England’s base rate, so changes in rate expectations following this data can move the returns available on cash savings.
Jobs and wages: Weak retail spending can eventually feed through to hiring and pay decisions at retailers, from supermarkets to high street chains, particularly around the busy Christmas trading period.
Prices: Retail sales values, as opposed to volumes, give a sense of how much price inflation is still showing up on the high street, which matters for anyone budgeting for Christmas shopping.
Investments, pensions and the pound: UK retail and consumer-facing shares, as well as the value of the pound against the dollar and the euro, can move on the day if the figures surprise markets, since they shift expectations for Bank of England policy. This can also have knock-on effects for European exporters selling into the UK and for pension funds holding UK consumer stocks.

Related events

Previous release: UK Retail Sales, October 2026 data
Bank of England interest rate decisions, which weigh consumer spending data heavily in policy discussions
UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which is read alongside retail sales to judge household spending power

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the November 2026 UK Retail Sales report released?
The ONS publishes the report at 7:00 am London time (2:00 am ET) on December 18, 2026.
How should I read the retail sales figures?
Focus on the month-on-month volume change and the ex-fuel measure, as these strip out price effects and fuel price swings to show real changes in how much people are buying.
How does this data affect interest rates?
The Bank of England uses consumer spending trends, including retail sales, as one input when deciding whether to hold, raise or cut its base rate, which in turn affects mortgage and savings rates.
Where can I find the official release?
The data is published on the ONS release calendar and in the retail sales bulletin on the ONS website.
When is the next UK Retail Sales report?
The following release will cover December 2026 data and is typically published around the middle of January 2027, following the ONS’s usual monthly schedule.
← Previous UK Retail Sales

US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment December 2026
2026-12-18 10:00 - 11:00 (America/New_York)
Next US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Friday, December 18, 2026 at 10:00 am ET (3:00 pm London).

Consensus
No consensus available (6 months ahead)
Actual
Pending

Updated August 25, 2026

← Previous US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan will publish the final Consumer Sentiment Index reading for December 2026 on Friday, December 18, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The report, produced by the university’s Surveys of Consumers programme, measures US household confidence across five dimensions: current personal finances, expected personal finances, near-term business conditions, five-year business conditions, and buying conditions for major household goods. With the index having fallen to a record low of 44.8 in May 2026, the December release will provide a year-end assessment of how American consumers are navigating persistent inflation, tighter credit conditions, and ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
What is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index?
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI) is one of the oldest and most respected measures of US household confidence. The Surveys of Consumers programme, based at the university’s Institute for Social Research, has tracked consumer attitudes since 1946, making it a reliable long-run barometer of American economic psychology. The survey conducts approximately 500 telephone interviews each month with a representative sample of US households, asking respondents about their current financial situation, their expectations for the economy, and their views on purchasing conditions for durable goods.
The index uses a base period of 1966:Q1 = 100, meaning readings above 100 indicate confidence above the 1966 benchmark, while readings below 100 reflect subdued sentiment relative to that period. The index is released twice monthly: a preliminary reading, typically on the second Friday of the month, followed by a final reading approximately two weeks later. For December 2026, the preliminary reading is scheduled for Friday, December 4, with the final on Friday, December 18.
Unlike business confidence surveys, which capture the views of executives and purchasing managers, the Michigan survey reflects the mood of ordinary households. This makes it particularly sensitive to retail fuel prices, mortgage rates, food costs, and the broader cost of living. The two principal sub-indices, the Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC) and the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE), are watched by Federal Reserve policymakers and bond market participants as leading signals of future consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of US GDP.
At a Glance

Event: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment — December 2026 Final
Release date: Friday, December 18, 2026
Release time: 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time
Preliminary release: Friday, December 4, 2026
Publisher: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
Consensus forecast: Not yet available (release is approximately six months away)
Most recent reading: 44.8 (May 2026 final — record low)
Market impact: Medium to high, particularly for consumer discretionary equities, retail sector, and interest rate expectations

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Release: December 18, 2026
No consensus forecast for the December 2026 final reading is available at this stage. With the release approximately six months away, professional forecaster surveys and Wall Street consensus polls have not yet coalesced around a specific estimate. The December 4 preliminary will provide an early signal, and analyst estimates for the final reading typically emerge in the days between the two releases.
The December 18 final report covers the full month of December interview period, capturing any shifts in household mood relative to the preliminary survey window. The report also includes detailed breakdowns by income, age, political affiliation, and region, providing a granular view of where confidence is recovering or deteriorating across the US population.
Given the record-low readings recorded in 2026, the key question for December is whether the second half of the year has produced any meaningful recovery. The trajectory of energy prices, Federal Reserve policy, and the labour market through the summer and autumn months will determine whether households are in a more confident mood by the time the December interviews are conducted in late November and early December.
Why This Reading Matters
The December 2026 Consumer Sentiment release arrives at a critical juncture. The index fell to an all-time low of 44.8 in May 2026, breaching the previous trough of 51.7 set in June 2022 at the peak of post-pandemic inflation. The 2026 deterioration has been driven by surging energy prices linked to geopolitical pressures, persistently elevated food costs, and rising year-ahead inflation expectations, which reached 4.8% in May 2026 according to the Surveys of Consumers programme. Over 57% of respondents in May 2026 spontaneously cited high prices as actively eroding their personal finances, underscoring the breadth of household stress.
The December reading will capture whether the second half of 2026 has produced any recovery in household confidence. The Federal Reserve’s policy path through the remainder of the year will be a direct influence: if the FOMC December 2026 rate decision signals relief from restrictive monetary policy, sentiment surveys may reflect improving expectations. Conversely, if inflation proves stubborn through the summer and autumn, the December reading could extend the 2026 decline into historically unprecedented territory. The US CPI Report for December 2026, released the week before the final sentiment print, will set the inflation backdrop fresh in respondents’ minds at the time of interviewing.
For equity investors in consumer-facing sectors, December sentiment carries particular weight. Consumer spending typically peaks during the November-December holiday shopping season, and the sentiment reading provides a forward-looking check on whether households entered that period with confidence or anxiety. Retailers, travel companies, and luxury goods producers will all be watching for signals about how 2026 holiday spending has tracked against expectations, with implications for 2027 earnings guidance.
What to Watch For
The headline index number will be the market’s first focus, but the sub-components often carry more weight for longer-term positioning:

Above consensus — recovery scenario: A reading that shows meaningful improvement from the May 2026 record low of 44.8 would signal that the second half of 2026 brought some household relief. This could support consumer discretionary equities, reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates aggressively, and lift retail sector forecasts for 2027. A reading above 55 would represent the highest confidence reading since February 2026 and would mark a significant psychological turning point.
In line with depressed recent levels — stagnation scenario: If sentiment remains near record-low territory, markets are unlikely to reprice materially. The narrative of a struggling US consumer would persist, keeping downward pressure on discretionary spending forecasts and reinforcing expectations of continued monetary accommodation well into 2027. Credit card and buy-now-pay-later data through the holiday season will be monitored alongside this reading.
Below recent levels — further deterioration scenario: A reading that extends the all-time low below 44.8 would be a significant negative signal. It would suggest that consumer confidence deteriorated further through the second half of 2026 despite any policy easing, potentially pressuring household spending forecasts and increasing the probability of a consumption-led economic slowdown entering 2027. Bond markets would likely rally on such a print as recession probability estimates rise.

Beyond the headline, traders will focus closely on year-ahead inflation expectations, which drive Federal Reserve communication, and on the buying conditions index for large durable goods, which signals whether households are ready to spend on major purchases such as vehicles and home appliances. The spread between current conditions and consumer expectations sub-indices will also reveal whether any softness is concentrated in present circumstances or forward-looking pessimism.
Historical Context

Month
Final Reading
Monthly Change
Context

December 2025
52.9
+1.9
Modest year-end recovery

January 2026
56.4
+3.5
New-year optimism

February 2026
56.6
+0.2
Six-month high; peak of 2026 confidence

March 2026
53.3
-3.3
Deterioration begins; buying conditions soften

April 2026
49.8
-3.5
74-year record low at time of release

May 2026
44.8
-5.0
All-time record low; below June 2022 trough

Sources: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Advisor Perspectives; Bloomberg.
Market Positioning
With the December 2026 release six months away, specific market positioning ahead of this print is not yet established. However, the broader macro picture frames the range of outcomes. US consumer confidence has been at historically depressed levels throughout 2026, and the market’s reaction to December’s reading will depend heavily on how significantly the trend has shifted in the intervening months. Any material recovery would likely be viewed as a positive catalyst for consumer sector equities, while a sustained decline into new record-low territory could accelerate repricing in bond markets and add weight to 2027 recession calls.
Options markets and consumer-sector exchange-traded funds will begin to reflect positioning as the November and early December economic data emerge. The US Personal Income and Outlays (PCE) for December 2026, released in the final days of December, will complement the sentiment data with hard spending figures. Investors should watch the University of Michigan’s November 2026 reading for the most proximate benchmark ahead of the December survey period opening in late November.
Related Events

US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment November 2026 — The final reading before December, providing the most recent snapshot of household confidence as the holiday season approaches.
FOMC Rate Decision December 2026 — The Fed’s December policy meeting; the rate path through year-end directly shapes consumer borrowing costs and household financial expectations.
US CPI Report December 2026 — Released the week before the final sentiment print; the inflation reading directly shapes consumer mood and the year-ahead price expectations captured in the survey.

Frequently Asked Questions
What does the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measure?
The index measures US household confidence across five dimensions: current personal finances, expected personal finances, short-term business conditions, long-term business conditions, and buying conditions for large household goods. It is calculated from telephone surveys of approximately 500 US households each month and uses a base period of 1966:Q1 = 100. The index has been produced continuously since 1946, making it one of the longest-running consumer surveys in the world.
When is the December 2026 Consumer Sentiment reading released?
The preliminary December 2026 reading is scheduled for Friday, December 4, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The final December 2026 reading follows on Friday, December 18, 2026, also at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Release dates are set by the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers programme and published in advance on the official schedule at sca.isr.umich.edu.
How does consumer sentiment affect financial markets?
Consumer sentiment influences markets in two principal ways. First, a strong or weak reading shifts expectations for consumer spending, which drives approximately 70% of US GDP, affecting retail and consumer discretionary equities and broad economic growth forecasts. Second, the survey’s inflation expectations components, particularly year-ahead and five-year-ahead figures, feed directly into Federal Reserve communications on rate policy. Extreme readings can move bond yields and interest rate futures, making this report one of the most closely watched monthly indicators in US markets.

PBoC Loan Prime Rate December 2026
2026-12-20 20:00 - 21:00 (America/New_York)
Next PBoC Loan Prime Rate: Monday, December 21, 2026 at 9:00 am CST (8:00 pm ET, 1:00 am London).

Consensus
Not yet published
Prior
Held at 3.0% (1-year) / 3.5% (5-year), unchanged since May 20, 2025
Actual
Pending

Full schedule and background: PBoC Loan Prime Rate.
Updated September 2, 2026

← Previous PBoC Loan Prime Rate
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announces its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decision for December 2026 on Monday, December 21, 2026, at 9:00 am China Standard Time (CST), which is 8:00 pm ET the previous day and 1:00 am London time. The rate is published by the National Interbank Funding Center (NIFC) under authorisation from the PBoC. It has held at 3.0% for the one-year LPR and 3.5% for the five-year LPR for most of 2026. Full schedule and background: PBoC Loan Prime Rate.
What is the PBoC and what does it decide?
The People’s Bank of China is the country’s central bank. It oversees monetary policy, financial regulation and currency issuance for the world’s second-largest economy. Unlike the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, the PBoC does not hold scheduled policy meetings with a rate-setting committee that votes in public. Instead, it steers borrowing costs through a mix of tools, including the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), reverse repo operations and guidance to the 18 commercial banks that submit LPR quotations each month.
The Loan Prime Rate is calculated as a weighted average of lending rates quoted by these banks, based on what they bid for PBoC liquidity in open market operations. There are two tenors: the one-year LPR, which benchmarks most corporate and household loans, and the over-five-year LPR, which serves as the reference for mortgage pricing across China.
The rate is published monthly, on the 20th of each month (or the next business day if the 20th falls on a weekend or holiday). This makes the LPR one of the most closely watched monthly data points for anyone tracking China’s property market, credit conditions or the yuan.
When is the December PBoC decision announced?
The December 2026 LPR fixing is due on Monday, December 21, 2026, at 9:00 am CST (8:00 pm ET the prior day, 1:00 am in London). The PBoC does not hold a press conference alongside the LPR announcement and does not publish minutes or a dot plot in the way the Fed or Bank of England do. The figure is released as a short statement on the PBoC’s official website, giving the one-year and five-year rates with immediate effect until the next fixing.
What to expect
China has held both the one-year and five-year LPR unchanged since the last cut on May 20, 2025, when the one-year rate was lowered to 3.0% and the five-year rate to 3.5%. Economists surveyed by Reuters have generally expected the PBoC to hold rates steady through most of 2026, according to reporting from CNBC, as policymakers weigh resilient growth data against a weak property sector and mounting external risks. Some analysts have flagged the possibility of a surprise cut given soft industrial output, retail sales and record contractions in new bank lending, according to InvestingLive, though this remains a minority view rather than a base case.

Meeting
Decision
Rate after meeting (1-year / 5-year)

May 2025
Cut 10bp
3.0% / 3.5%

August 2025
Hold
3.0% / 3.5%

September 2025
Hold
3.0% / 3.5%

October 2025
Hold
3.0% / 3.5%

December 2025
Hold
3.0% / 3.5%

April 2026
Hold
3.0% / 3.5%

August 2026
Hold
3.0% / 3.5%

Market impact scenarios

Scenario
Likely market read
What it means in plain English

Hold
Widely expected given a string of holds through 2026, according to Trading Economics data
No change to mortgage or business loan benchmarks in China; markets treat this as the status quo continuing

Cut
Would be read as a fresh easing signal amid weak property and lending data
Cheaper mortgages and business loans in China, likely weaker yuan, and a possible lift for Chinese equities and regional risk sentiment

Guidance shift
Any accompanying commentary on the property sector or credit growth is watched closely by analysts
Signals whether Beijing plans further stimulus in early 2027, which matters for anyone exposed to Chinese growth through trade, commodities or emerging market funds

What will the statement and press conference signal?
Because there is no press conference, markets rely on the bare numbers plus any surrounding PBoC commentary from its quarterly Monetary Policy Report or public remarks by officials. Analysts watch for whether the central bank references property prices, new yuan loan growth or export demand tied to AI-related manufacturing, all factors that have shaped recent decisions. A move in either tenor without the other (for example, a five-year cut alone) would be read as a targeted attempt to support mortgages and the housing market without loosening broader credit conditions.
What It Means for Your Money
For homeowners and buyers in China, the five-year LPR directly feeds into mortgage pricing, so a hold means no immediate change to monthly repayments, while a cut would lower borrowing costs for new and some existing mortgages. For businesses borrowing in yuan, the one-year LPR affects the cost of working capital loans.
Outside China, the decision matters mainly through currency and trade channels. A steady or lower LPR alongside weak Chinese demand can weigh on the yuan, which in turn affects the pound, euro and dollar through China’s role in global trade and commodity demand. Investors in UK and eurozone funds with exposure to Chinese equities, luxury goods, mining or automotive stocks often see share prices move on LPR day. Pension funds and multi-asset portfolios with emerging market allocations can feel a similar effect. There is no direct link to UK or eurozone savings rates or mortgage pricing, but persistent weakness in Chinese growth can filter through to global bond yields and, over time, borrowing costs elsewhere.
Related events

Previous decision: PBoC Loan Prime Rate, November 2026
Full PBoC LPR schedule and history: PBoC Loan Prime Rate
China’s official LPR announcements are published on the People’s Bank of China website

Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the December 2026 PBoC LPR announced?
The rate is published at 9:00 am China Standard Time on December 21, 2026, which is 8:00 pm ET the previous day and 1:00 am in London.
What is the current PBoC Loan Prime Rate?
As of the most recent fixings in 2026, the one-year LPR stood at 3.0% and the over-five-year LPR at 3.5%, unchanged since May 2025.
Will the PBoC cut rates in December 2026?
A consensus forecast for this specific fixing has not yet been published. Economists surveyed by Reuters ahead of prior 2026 meetings generally expected holds, though some analysts have flagged the possibility of a surprise cut given weak lending and property data.
When is the next PBoC LPR decision?
The PBoC publishes the LPR on the 20th of each month, or the next business day if that date falls on a weekend or holiday, so the next fixing follows in January 2027.
Where can I watch the official announcement?
The PBoC publishes the LPR directly on its official website rather than through a televised press conference.
← Previous PBoC Loan Prime Rate
